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Voting Intentions
3Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = +4
All giving a voting intention: 81%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
33%
29%
9%
13%
10%6%
Base:1,012 British adults 18+, 13th -15th December 2014, all certain to vote = 619
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 59%
Conservative lead = +3
32%
29%
9%
13%
9%
8%
Greens
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ma
r-04
Ju
n-0
4
Sep
-04
Dec-0
4
Ma
r-05
Ju
n-0
5
Sep
-05
Dec-0
5
Ma
r-06
Ju
n-0
6
Sep
-06
Dec-0
6
Ma
r-07
Ju
n-0
7
Sep
-07
Dec-0
7
Ma
r-08
Ju
n-0
8
Sep
-08
Dec-0
8
Ma
r-09
Ju
n-0
9
Sep
-09
Dec-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Sep
-10
Dec-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Sep
-11
Dec-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Sep
-12
Dec-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Sep
-13
De
c-1
3
Ma
r-14
Ju
n-1
4
Sep
-14
Dec-1
4
29%
9%
32%
13%
2005 General Election
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through December 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions March ‘04 – December ‘14
(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How certain are Labour and Conservative supporters in their
intention to vote? March ‘08 to December ‘14
% of supporters “Absolutely certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
2010 General Election
Labour Conservative
66%67%
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through December 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders
7
57
64
63
53
62
36
24
25
33
31
Net Satisfaction
Swing from November
2014
-21 -3
-40 -2
-38 +3
-20 -7
-31 -2
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th December 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ma
r-08
Ju
n-0
8
Se
p-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ma
r-09
Ju
n-0
9
Se
p-0
9
De
c-0
9
Ma
r-10
Ju
n-1
0
Se
p-1
0
De
c-1
0
Ma
r-11
Ju
n-1
1
Se
p-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ma
r-12
Ju
n-1
2
Se
p-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ma
r-13
Ju
n-1
3
Se
p-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ma
r-14
Ju
n-1
4
Se
p-1
4
De
c-1
4
24%% s
ati
sfi
ed
Cameron
Clegg
General Election
36%
Miliband 25%Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders March ‘08 – December ‘14
Farage
33%
9
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIRMAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to December 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from December 2008 was via telephone
10
36%
57%
7%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
Note: Data collected prior to December 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from December 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
December 2014
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -21
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th December 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
December 2006 – December 2014
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 251 Conservative supporters 18+, 13th -15th December 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
78%
18%
5%Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +60 Note: Data collected prior to December 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from December 2008 was via telephone
December 2006 – December 2014December 2014
12
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2014)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to December 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from December 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
13
25%
63%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
December 2010 – December 2014December 2014
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -38
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th December 2014
14
47%
40%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 269 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 15th December 2014
Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
December 2014
Net = +7
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
December 2010 – December 2014
15
24%
64%
13%
Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to December 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from December 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
December 2008 – December 2014December 2014
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -40
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th December 2014
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 73 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 13th – 15th December 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
December 2014
48%
41%
12%Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +7
Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
December 2008 – December 2014
Note: Data collected prior to December 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from December 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
17
33%
53%
15%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
All
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – December 2014
Base: 1,012 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th December 2014
18
92%
5% 3%
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Nigel Farage
(satisfaction among UKIP supporters)
Base: 96 UKIP supporters, 13th -15th December 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
UKIP supporters
Satisfied
Don’t knowDissatisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
March 2013 – December 2014
Net = +87
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
