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Impact of Climate Change and
Mediterranean Sea Level Rise on
Egypt
and the National Strategy for
Climate Change Adaptation
Presented byKhaled Kheireldin, Ph.D., PE
Director of Climate Change Research Institute
Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation
Egypt
Definition of: Climate Change
• Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years.
• It may be a change in the average weather conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an average, for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events. Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.
Global Warming of Climate
• Warming of the climate
is definitely occurring
and can be observed by
the:
– Increases in global sea
and air temperatures
– Widespread melting of
snow and ice
– Rising global sea level
The land-ocean temperature index combines data on air temperatures over land with data on sea surface temperatures. (“Mean” is the midpoint between the highest and lowest.) The black line shows the annual changes; the red line tracks 5-year periods. Source: NASA Goddard institute for Space Studies. (January 11, 2008)
Precipitation form,
timing and quantity
Sea level rise
Air temperature
Impacts of Climate Change
• City of Alexandria from 1957 to 2011
http://www.tutiempo.netمصدر البيانات الموقع االلكتروني
y = -0.1405x + 317.87
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Day
s
Year
No of Rainfall Days
y = 0.0098x + 1.108
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19.5
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21.5
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Tem
pra
ture
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Avergae Temprature
Evidence of Climate Change in Egypt
Port Said City at the Entrance of Suez Canal
http://www.tutiempo.netمصدر البيانات الموقع االلكتروني
y = -0.0907x + 196.46
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No
of
Day
s
Year
No of Rainy Days
y = 0.0076x + 6.4716
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Tem
pra
ture
C)
Year
Average Temprature
Land Sunsidence
Global Warming Causes Snow Melting
SLR
Land Subsidence
SLR
Soil Consolidation due to Gas and Oil Extraction
Vulnerabilities Sectors and Zones
1- Most vulnerable sectors to climate change are:
1)Coastal Zones
2) Water Resources
3) Agriculture (14% of GDP)
2- Most Vulnerable Areas:
• Delta Area: Most Populated Area
• 40 Million are living in Nile Delta
• Coastal Zones (Mediterranean and
• Red Sea Coasts)
• Upper Nile Plateau
Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates
Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates
Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates
Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates
Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates
Approach for Studying the Impact of Climate Change on Egypt
Impact of Climate Change on
the Different Sectors in
Egypt
Impact of Climate Change on
Water Resources Sector
Inflow to High Aswan Dam
المسيسبي
جريجالفا
ارينوكو
امازون
سايو فرانسيسكو
النيجرفولتا
السنغال
ملوية سبو
الراين
النيل
شط العرب
اندوس
كرشناجودافاري
ماهانادي
ججان
ماحاكام
ميكونج
شايو فرايا
ريد زوجيانج
شانج جيانج
Significant Impact
High Level Impact
Moderate Impact
Impact of Climate Change on Coastal
Resources Sector
Impact of Climate Change on
Coastal Resources Sector
Impact of Climate Change on
Coastal Resources Sector (cont’d)
Impacts of SLR and the vulnerability of coastal communities,
economic sectors and natural systems in the areas of Ras El Bar,
New Damietta City and Gamasa
land affected by high
levels of groundwater until 2100Cultivated land affected by high
levels of groundwater until 2100
Adaptation
• The UNFCCC defines it as actions taken to
help communities and ecosystems cope with
changing climate condition
• The IPCC describes it as adjustment in natural
or human systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities
Elements of adaptation
• Observation
• Assessment
• Planning
• Implementation
• Monitoring and Evaluation
Observation
&
Assessment
Certain & Un-Certain Future Challenges Facing WR in Egypt
34
•
2015 2025 2050 2075 2100
Estimated Rise in mean air Temperature (oC) -- 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.5
Estimated % change in mean ETo & Water Requirements -- 4 % 8 % 13 % 18 %
Estimated Population (million) -- 104 145 191 237
Estimated % change in Nile Flows Drying Scenario -- - 6 % -15 % -20 % -31 %
Estimated % change in Nile Flows Wetting Scenario -- +10% +21% +24% +27%
Rough Estimate of Reduction (Bil m3/yr) 3 5 8 10.5 13
Sea Level Rise 0.1-.22 .24-.5 0.4-.8 .5-.95
-Since we do not know what climate scenario would prevail in future, there will be
UNERTAINTY in the developed adaptation strategy.
-To Reduce this UnCertainty, we will considerd two average Scenarios:
1- An average range for the Wetting Nile flow scenarios ( + 27% for 2100) , and
2- An average one for the Drying Nile flow scenarios ( - 31% for 2100)
- Therefore Two Sets of estimated Future Water Budget Trends ( 2025, 2050, 2075 & 2100)
are developed (one for the Drying scenario and one for the Wetting Scenario)
MhmdNour: – Mainstreaming CC Adaptation Strategy
Assessment
- Future Population are based on those of the Water Holding Company
- Do not expect Increase in Nile Flows in the near future, situation my improve in future
- Transbounday are based on very little information
- Deep GW is non-renewable and has limitations
- Rainfall Harvesting has relatively little contribution
- Desalination will have a significant role w.r.t .drinking water
- Shallow GW in the Delta is renewable & related to Nile flow and irrigation efficiency
- Agricultural Drainage Re-Use is related to Irrigation efficiency and Nile Flows
- Treated Waste Water will have increased contribution with increased municipal allocation
- Drainage Water disposal to Sea is related to water availability but a must for salt balance
- Sea Water Agriculture is still in research stage and is promising should have more attention
- Water Quality: It is assumed that all possible measures will be taken to protect water bodies
Main Simplifying Assumptions used in developing these trends
0
20
40
60
80
100
Bill
ion
m^3
/ye
ar
2050 Dry (-15%) 2050 Wet (21%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Drinking (FreshWater Only)
Industry Agriculture(Adjusted)
Drainage toSea
Evap. Losses Env. Balance Total WaterUsage or
Allocation
Bill
ion
m^3
/ye
ar 2050 Dry (-15%) 2050 Wet (21%)
Planning
Risks to Egypt Water Security
• R1: Drought and Water Scarcity
• R2: Floods
• R3: High Water Consumption
• R4: Sea Level Rise
•Each of these Risks has its Consequences
•Adaptation Measures are Defined & Classified
for these Consequences
Adaptation Measures are Defined for the
Consequences & Classified according to :
•Category : (Infra-structure, Managerial, or Technical)
•Scale and Size: (Regional, National , or Local)
•Technical Feasibility: (Low, Moderate, or High)
•Adaptive Capacity: (Low, Moderate, or High)
•Potential Cost: (Low, Moderate, or High)
•Time Span: (Short, Medium, or Long)
•Response: (Proactive, or Reactive) , and
•Regret: (Low regret, No regret, or Regrettable)
• Developing Implementation Plans
45
•
Information needs
Impact assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Financial arrangements
Evaluate
Policy, legal and institutional framework
Understand the vulnerability
Development of measures
Information needs
Impact assessment
Vulnerability assessment
Financial arrangements
Evaluate
Policy, legal and institutional framework
Understand the vulnerability
Development of measures
The Dynamic nature of climate change adaptation strategies
Next Step
Budget Details for different risks
(Personal Assessment)
Budget Details for different risks
(Personal Assessment)
-
Total Budget , CC Adaptation Strategy , (Personal Assessment)
48
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Estimated Climate Change Adaptation Budget till 2050for the 4 Defined Rrisks (Billion LE)
Now we are standing Here 49
Where we are Standing NOW,
We still at the very Beginning; BUT on the Road,
and we have to start Acting
ROAD MAP for Implementing CC Aaptation Strategy
• The Road Map is a set of forward looking strategies within a time frame,
• A road map must be: S M A R T
[ Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, Time‐bound]
• The Road Map Should Involve all stakeholders like:- Policy makers and planners
- Research and Educational Institutions
- Community Organizations
- Development Institutions
- Private Companies
• 4 Steps to formulate the Road Map …..
50
Guidelines for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector
• 4 Main Steps
•Flow Diagram of Mainstreaming CC Adaptation51
Institutinal Analysis National Plans
Stakeholders
IdentifictionCapacity Needs
Building on Existing
SystemsGovernance
Budgeting Capacity Building
Sta
keho
lder
s In
volv
emen
t
STEP 1: SITUATION ANALYSIS
STEP 2: ENABLING ENVIRONMENT
STEP 3: PLANNIING &
POLICY STRUCTURE
STEP 4: INSTITUTIONAL
STRUCTURE
Public
Awareness
Mainstreaming
Team
Identify Entry
points for
Mainstreaming
Capacity Needs
Climate - Proofed
National Plans
Stakeholders
Identification
The Way Forward
• Create informed consensus on climate change risks, objectives and
policies.
• Define the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders (sectoral
agencies, different ministries and different levels implementing and evaluating
bodies).
• Strengthen the networks in Knowledge creation and dissemination
• Network among capacity building agencies and institutions
• Implementing suitable support system
• Feedback to national policies, state policies and international
negotiations
52
Adaptation ProcessExample: Coastal Zone
• Sand Dunes systems should be treated as the first defensive line for the Nile Delta.
• Coastal Lakes are appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise.
• International Coastal Road may be considered as the second protection measure and studies to support it are urgently required.
• Coastal Protection work needs regular maintenance and should be considered in any coastal zone management plans.
• The Northwest Coast extended from Alexandria to the Egyptian-Libyan borders is not vulnerable as it has elevation more than 10 m above average sea water level.
1- Utilizing Dredged Bed Material from Damietta Port
Approaching Channel in Beach Nourishment
Proposed nourished areas
2- Coastal Sand Dunes Stabilizing
International coastal road Sand Dunes At the West
Side of Rosseta Region
Manzala Lake management
According to DO According to NH3Sampling locations
Coastal Lakes are appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise.
3- Coastal Lakes as an Appropriate Adaptive
Measure against Sea Level Rise
Ras-El-Bar City shore before Shore
protection
Ras-El-Bar City shore After
Shore protection
4- Managed Alignment
Thank you
