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Changsheng Chen
04/14/2015
Impact of Sea Level Rise on Future Storm-induced
Coastal Inundation
School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth
Email: [email protected]
Outline
Sources of storm-induced coastal inundation;
Observed evidences of sea level rise (SLR) in the New England region;
Impacts of SLR on future storm-induced coastal inundation:
Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS); Case study 1: Hurricane;Case study 2: Nor’easter storms .
Extratropic
Storms/Nor’easters
Hurricanes/
Tropic Storms Coastal Inundation
Infrastructure damages
Human safety
Dec. 3, 2015
Storm-induced Hazards along the New England Coast
Future Challenge: Impacts of the Sea Level Rise
IPCC temperature projection for three emission scenarios (B1, A2 and A1F1). Figure is downloaded from Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
Real data
0.4-0.6 m
1.2 m
Eastport
New
London
Montau
k
Woods
Hole
Nantucke
t
Halifax
Portland
Boston
Newport
New York
Tidal gauge stations
Boston
New York
Year Mean ElevationProjection
(m)
1927 2.49
2012 2.76
2100 2.97
Yearly mean
elevatio
n (m
)
Year Mean ElevationProjection
(m)
1927 1.57
2012 1.88
2100 2.12
Time (year)
Yearly mean
elevatio
n (m
)
0.27 m
SLR
0.21 m
SLR
0.31 m
0.21 m
Existing Models
NECOFS
KEY
Data
Products
Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS)
MASS Coastal FVCOM(up to 10 m)
Surface Wave Model(FVCOM-SWAVE)
Local Weather Model (WRF)
North American Meso-scale (NAM) Weather Model
Satellite SSTBuoy WindsInsolation
Satellite SST, SSHBuoy or Survey
T,S,U,VRiver discharges
Heat Flux Wind Stress
P-E U,V
BC’s
assimilation
Regional FVCOM(GOM-FVCOM: 0.3-15 km)
Global-FVCOMtides, currents,
T and S)
Groundwater
U,V , Waves
Langmuir Cells
Scituate, MA
Storm Surge (hurricanes, Nor’easter) Inundation Models
Wind Stress
Hampton River, NH
Nested
Products: Weather: winds, air temperature, air humidity, air pressure, heat flux, E-POceans: sea level, currents, T, S, wave heights, wave frequencies, icingLands: inundation areas
Mass Bay/Boston Harbor Saco , ME
Global-FVCOM (2-50 km)
GOM-FVCOM (0.3-15 km) Mass-Coastal FVCOM
(10 m-5 km)
Nested
Nested
Nested
Scituate, MA (up to 10 m) Hampton, NH (up to 10 m)Boston Harbor, MA (up to 10 m) Saco Bay (up to 10 m)
Nested Nested
Inundation in the northern region of Boston
Flooded by 0.5-m sea level rise
Hurricane-induced flooding
26 27 28Days (Dec., 2010)
Barometric pressure
Significant wave height
Wind vectors at Scituate Harbor (SH)
Maps of surface wave height (m) and direction (arrows) at Dec. 27 08 GMT
42.21
42.20
42.19
70.72 70.71 70.72 70.71
0.5 m 1.0 mSLR:
2010
Enlarged by 0.5-m SLR
Enlarged by 1.0-m SLR
42.21
42.20
42.19
70.73 70.72 70.73 70.72
Dec. 27, 2010
0.5-m SLR
1.0 –m SLR
0.45 m3/s
0.53 m3/s
0.61 m3/s
~18 %
~36 %
Wave Runup Produced Splashing Discharge