Upload
amarach-research
View
386
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
A monthly survey of the mood of the nation, with a focus on sentiment about the economy, emotional wellbeing, and consumer behaviour.
Citation preview
The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
© Amárach Research 2009
July 2011 Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
2
The Emotional Recovery
• We have been reporting our monthly
Recovery Indicator since April 2009.
• We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery
alongside our ‘economic progress’.
• Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
• But we are still in recession – and the path to
recovery still lies some way ahead.
• We will help you along that path.
3
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery –
so will this one.
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely.
• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator results from April 2009
(when it began) to July 2011.
• The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during the period 11th-18th July 2011 inclusive.
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
4
A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
5
A Matter of Measurement
June‘11 46% July‘11 47%
June’11 28% July’11 28%
June’11 24% July’11 22%
June’11 2% July’11 3%
June’11 1% July’11 0%
• July 2011 saw little change in the public’s views on the current stage
of the economic cycle:
6
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100
(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• In July 2011, the Recovery Indicator stands at 20.3 – almost unchanged from June’s figure of 20.4.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr '09
Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11
May June July
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
7
34%41%44% 42%43%46%48%
41%43%52%
41% 42%43% 42%42%
42%39%
31%26%18%
23%26%24%25%24%28%23%26%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly
57% 59%65%
58% 60% 62%55%
51%
51%61%
55%54%52% 53%
54%55%
50% 46% 44% 33%41%
48%44%48%47%53%
47%48%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 1
8
48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%45%45%50%
47% 43%47%45%
45%47%
46%41%41%
32%34%39%37%36%39%40%34%39%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
0
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly
Recovery Outlook 2
59%
62% 61%60%61%60% 56%
52%
56%55%53% 55%
53%51%50%
55%
54%
53%
52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%49%
Ap
r '0
9
May
Ju
n
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r'10
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r '1
1
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
9
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: July 2009*, 2010, 2011 & June 2011
14% 20% 14% 17%
Jul'09 Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11
I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago
64% 60% 62%
Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11
Now is a good time to buy a house for those
who want to
38%27% 25% 26%
Jul'09 Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11
I am saving a lot more than before because of
the recession
27% 23% 26%
Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11
I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I
need to 62% 59% 59%
Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11
Paying off debts is my main financial priority
Impact on:
•Spending
•Saving
•Debt
•Borrowing
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
* NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009
10
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to July 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'10
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
'11
May
June
July
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
11
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to July 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
0
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Se
pt
Oct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r '1
1
Ma
y
June
July
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
12
Resilient Optimism
• The emotional mood of the nation continues to
demonstrate strong resilience.
• The experience of positive emotions (enjoyment,
happiness) has strengthened steadily since
November last year – in terms of the nation’s
‘psyche’ – whilst the hold of negative emotions
(worry, anxiety) has weakened.
• But it is still too early for changes in emotions to
translate into behavioural change: especially
consumer spending.
• However, if the present trends continue over the
remainder of the year, spending growth will follow.
• Stay tuned to future issues of the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator to find out what happens...
13
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill
Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
telephone: (01) 410 5200
email: [email protected]
website: www.amarach.com
blog: www.amarach.com/blog
twitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch