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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Thursday, 15 January 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

QEWS 189.10 193.00

IQCD 146.10 151.60

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,877.43 -0.5 8.1

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,000 12,350 12,430

Support 11,850 11,600 11,480

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index experienced a wild ride over the past few sessions. The erratic swings represent the chaotic attitude that traders are going through. We expected this volatility and this sentiment could last longer than expected. It should be noted that technical indicators, although showing mixed signals, reveal that bearish momentum is still overruling the general traders’ sentiment in the medium-term. Expected Resistance Level: 12,350 Expected Support Level: 11,850

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 14 Jan 15 13 Jan 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 618.9 537.3 15.2

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 648.5 652.8 -0.7

Volume (mn) 9.1 10.9 -16.5

Number of Trans. 6,610 6,810 -2.9

Companies Traded 40 42 -4.8

Market Breadth 15:24 13:25 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,715.07 -0.5 42.6

All Share Index 3,049.94 -0.4 43.1

Banks 3,175.19 -0.5 48.5

Industrials 3,753.49 -0.6 37.3

Transportation 2,300.31 0.1 52.8

Real Estate 2,184.49 -0.4 41.9

Insurance 3,739.24 -0.1 47.2

Telecoms 1,373.64 -0.7 42.2

Consumer 6,924.47 0.3 49.1

Al Rayan Islamic 3,970.65 -0.2 43.5

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IQCD 146.10 -1.3 28.3

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QEWS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 189.10 0.05 16,944

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 190.00 192.00 193.00

Support 185.30 180.20 173.00

Commentary

Overview: The name is struggling to break above the descending trend line which stretches from last May. The inability to break the above mentioned line may create more selling pressure as some traders’ patience could run out and can ignite a selling frenzy. The good news is that from a short-term perspective, technical indicators are showing possible signs of moving upward. On the hourly frame, we see that the name is flirting with the upper boundary of the short-term down trend channel. The MACD is showing signs of strength on both the daily and the hourly charts. Expected Target Price: QR193.00 A break above QR190.00 should take the price to the projected target. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR189.00 A sustained trading below the suggested price means a possible drop to QR185.00.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 146.10 -1.28 945,379

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 151.70 156.80 165.10

Support 143.50 140.00 135.00

Commentary

Overview: The name experienced a sharp drop after the proposed cash dividends announcement of QR7.00 per share. The name dropped over 17% since then and technical indicators show possible signs of recovery. A long legged Doji created above QR143.50 which is a strong support made from previous consolidation area not seen in the charts. On a different time scale, the intraday chart shows the name reaching the lower side of a downtrend channel. Also, the RSI reached an oversold area on both time frames. The MACD on the hourly chart is still under the zero line but gaining momentum as seen from its Histogram. Expected Target Price: QR151.60 – QR156.70 Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR143.50 A break below the mentioned price may drag the price further down to the QR140.00 level then QR135.00.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,877.43 11,749.59 11,814.33 11,854.32 11,919.06 11,983.80 12,023.79 12,088.53 12,719.18 13,227.95 12,993.46

Total Return 17,715.07 17,524.40 17,620.95 17,680.61 17,777.17 17,873.72 17,933.38 18,029.94 18,970.53 19,729.37 19,375.42

All Share 3,049.94 3,020.34 3,034.89 3,043.89 3,058.44 3,072.99 3,081.99 3,096.54 3,239.87 3,355.86 3,299.94

Al Rayan Islamic 3,970.65 3,934.36 3,955.16 3,968.00 3,988.79 4,009.59 4,022.43 4,043.22 4,268.03 4,462.65 4,345.65

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 44.80 42.37 43.25 43.79 44.67 45.55 46.09 46.97 46.53 50.68 50.82

CBQK 68.70 68.37 68.56 68.68 68.87 69.06 69.18 69.37 69.99 70.82 69.04

DHBK 55.80 55.33 55.56 55.70 55.93 56.16 56.30 56.53 57.11 58.57 59.72

QIBK 107.00 104.60 105.59 106.21 107.20 108.19 108.81 109.80 103.61 109.78 101.66

QIIK 79.20 77.33 78.10 78.57 79.33 80.10 80.57 81.33 82.11 85.40 84.28

Insurance

QATI 84.60 84.13 84.40 84.57 84.83 85.10 85.27 85.53 89.46 94.00 86.86

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 122.10 119.37 120.32 120.91 121.87 122.82 123.41 124.37 121.70 125.58 107.43

Industrials

IQCD 146.10 142.30 144.48 145.82 148.00 150.18 151.52 153.70 179.82 184.97 182.90

QEWS 189.10 188.37 188.75 188.98 189.37 189.75 189.98 190.37 187.31 187.56 186.05

GISS 99.00 97.67 98.43 98.90 99.67 100.43 100.90 101.67 103.81 112.43 104.98

QIGD 38.75 36.78 37.70 38.27 39.18 40.10 40.67 41.58 42.76 49.62 55.04

Real Estate

BRES 41.30 40.60 40.98 41.22 41.60 41.98 42.22 42.60 45.07 43.13 41.20

UDCD 23.51 23.24 23.39 23.48 23.64 23.79 23.88 24.04 24.78 26.73 26.03

ERES 14.34 14.21 14.28 14.33 14.41 14.48 14.53 14.61 16.62 18.06 21.29

MRDS 19.00 18.25 18.49 18.64 18.89 19.13 19.28 19.53 20.64 22.34 20.66

Telecommunication

ORDS 116.00 115.20 115.62 115.88 116.30 116.72 116.98 117.40 117.89 123.46 131.80

VFQS 14.55 14.38 14.48 14.54 14.63 14.73 14.79 14.88 17.02 19.09 18.54

Transportation

QGTS 23.50 22.79 23.00 23.12 23.32 23.53 23.65 23.85 23.25 23.78 23.47

QNNS 96.60 96.33 96.49 96.58 96.73 96.89 96.98 97.13 98.01 96.83 95.65 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.