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10 January Daily technical trader

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 5

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Sunday, 10 January 2016

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price 1st

    Target

    QATI 78.40 76.70

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 9,767.22 -3.02 2.9

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 9,800 10,000 10,300

    Support 9,700 9,600 9,500

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: The QSE Index broke below the lower side of the downtrend channel (the short-dashed green line seen on the daily chart). It is an indication that the general trend remains down and the support levels between 9,700 and 9,500 are of an extreme importance to stay above. Expected Resistance Level: 9,800 Expected Support Level: 9,700

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 07 Jan 06 Jan %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 268.0 143.9 86.2

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 520.4 535.0 -2.7

    Volume (mn) 6.5 3.5 85.5

    Number of Trans. 4,183 2,852 46.7

    Companies Traded 42 39 7.7

    Market Breadth 4:37 25:11

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 15,181.74 -3.0 33.7

    All Share Index 2,606.45 -2.9 33.2

    Banks and Financials 2,625.57 -2.8 33.6

    Industrials 2,984.80 -2.2 39.9

    Transportation 2,352.99 -1.9 37.2

    Real Estate 2,143.72 -4.3 32.0

    Insurance 3,856.20 -3.8 34.5

    Telecoms 965.69 -2.1 53.0

    Consumer 5,655.99 -2.5 30.9

    Al Rayan Islamic 3,585.21 -3.0 31.8

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QCFS 34.00 0.0 0.3

    QIBK 97.10 -5.7 21.9

    BRES 35.90 -4.3 26.4

    DHBK 40.80 -3.5 27.4

    NLCS 13.22 -2.7 29.3

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    QATI

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 78.40 -3.80 105,930

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 80.00 83.10 85.00

    Support 78.40 76.70 72.20

    Commentary

    Overview: The name has broken the medium-term uptrend line and created lower tops and lower bottoms. That is the basic definition of a downtrend. In addition, there has been multiple Death Crosses (circled in red) on the moving averages; the shorter-term moving average broke below the longer-term moving average. Moreover, the MACD is moving below the zero-line on the daily and in the intraday charts. As a result, the name might experience more weakness on the longer term. Expected Target Price: QR76.70 QR72.20 A price breach below QR78.40 triggers the sell recommendation.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 9,767.22 9,521.24 9,631.75 9,700.03 9,810.54 9,921.05 9,989.33 10,099.84 10,528.64 11,025.44 11,509.56

    Total Return 15,181.74 14,799.40 14,971.17 15,077.30 15,249.07 15,420.84 15,526.97 15,698.74 16,365.26 17,137.47 17,886.45

    All Share 2,606.45 2,546.32 2,573.74 2,590.68 2,618.09 2,645.51 2,662.45 2,689.86 2,806.31 2,936.40 3,070.96

    Al Rayan Islamic 3,585.21 3,505.14 3,540.74 3,562.73 3,598.32 3,633.92 3,655.91 3,691.50 3,927.43 4,160.24 4,375.15

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 35.00 33.67 34.07 34.32 34.72 35.12 35.37 35.77 38.08 40.60 43.54

    CBQK 42.00 40.97 41.56 41.92 42.52 43.11 43.47 44.07 47.70 51.86 53.83

    DHBK 40.80 39.37 40.17 40.66 41.47 42.27 42.76 43.57 45.73 48.19 50.71

    QIBK 97.10 92.97 95.18 96.55 98.77 100.98 102.35 104.57 112.81 113.74 109.53

    QIIK 60.70 59.63 60.05 60.31 60.73 61.15 61.41 61.83 67.82 71.62 75.53

    Insurance

    QATI 78.40 77.13 77.86 78.31 79.03 79.76 80.21 80.93 85.88 90.52 90.99

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 113.70 102.03 105.43 107.53 110.93 114.33 116.43 119.83 132.75 149.93 161.36

    Industrials

    IQCD 104.00 99.20 100.58 101.42 102.80 104.18 105.02 106.40 108.66 117.67 128.50

    QEWS 205.80 201.87 203.89 205.14 207.17 209.19 210.44 212.47 209.56 210.54 211.60

    GISS 45.05 43.75 44.40 44.80 45.45 46.10 46.50 47.15 53.52 58.45 69.80

    QIGD 32.90 32.37 32.65 32.83 33.12 33.40 33.58 33.87 39.26 42.98 46.21

    Real Estate

    BRES 35.90 34.93 35.47 35.80 36.33 36.87 37.20 37.73 40.98 42.59 46.15

    UDCD 19.70 19.21 19.41 19.53 19.73 19.93 20.05 20.25 21.47 22.67 23.09

    ERES 14.65 14.32 14.51 14.63 14.82 15.01 15.13 15.32 16.62 17.68 17.62

    MRDS 13.29 12.96 13.12 13.21 13.36 13.52 13.61 13.76 14.91 15.58 17.02

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 74.80 71.87 73.09 73.84 75.07 76.29 77.04 78.27 72.59 73.25 82.61

    VFQS 11.80 11.51 11.64 11.71 11.83 11.96 12.03 12.15 12.37 13.23 15.02

    Transportation

    QGTS 22.40 21.73 22.00 22.17 22.43 22.70 22.87 23.13 23.81 23.25 22.82

    QNNS 93.50 89.37 90.55 91.28 92.47 93.65 94.38 95.57 96.18 96.65 97.56 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

    considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

    Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

    shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

    Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

    levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

    Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

    Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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    Contacts:

    Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

    Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

    Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535

    zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

    QNB Financial Services SPC

    Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

    PO Box 24025

    Doha, Qatar

    Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (QNBFS) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (QNB). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and th