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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

MCCS 103.10 100.00

WDAM 60.20 58.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,836.07 -0.1 3.8

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,850 12,000 12,250

Support 11,750 11,600 11,480

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index is at a standstill. Indicators are becoming neutral and flattish in nature as the tides between the bulls and the bears are equalizing. There are some subtle but contradicting technical signs. Looking at the candlesticks formation, we can see that the Index has created a bullish Harami stabilizing above the 11,600 level. On the other hand, the Index is still trading below its daily moving averages, which is a bearish signal. In our view, over the short term, there could be a sling upward as denoted by the bullish Harami but such a move could be reversed given the preponderance of bearish momentum. Expected Resistance Level: 12,000 Expected Support Level: 11,600

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 26 Jan 15 25 Jan 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 418.0 350.3 19.3

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 646.3 646.7 -0.1

Volume (mn) 8.7 6.7 29.9

Number of Trans. 6,191 4,752 30.3

Companies Traded 42 41 2.4

Market Breadth 12:26 27:13 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,653.39 -0.1 43.4

All Share Index 3,044.94 -0.2 44.2

Banks 3,112.72 -0.1 44.9

Industrials 3,739.86 -0.3 38.5

Transportation 2,304.97 0.0 52.1

Real Estate 2,265.67 0.0 49.3

Insurance 3,743.10 -0.2 48.3

Telecoms 1,392.06 0.3 47.4

Consumer 7,093.90 -1.4 54.9

Al Rayan Islamic 4,015.81 -0.5 46.6

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QCFS 36.20 -9.7 23.0

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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MCCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 103.10 -0.77 21,107

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 105.00 108.00 111.00

Support 102.00 100.00 95.00

Commentary

Overview: MCCS stabilized around the QR103.00 price levels and tried to bounce above the QR105.00 but failed to do so and hence the long shadow created three sessions ago. This shadow concludes the Reverse Hammer candlestick. This is a bullish signal but needs a confirmation. However, we caution if the price dips below QR103.00 then the bullish scenario will be refuted. We are leaning more toward a bearish outcome due to the following reasons. A bearish engulfing candle was created in the last session. The intraday chart shows a Double Top pattern being created (denoted in red). The MACD on both time frames are below the zero line. Finally, all SMAs on the daily chart are above the current price. Expected Price Retreat: QR100.00 A break below QR103.00 is needed to trigger the selling recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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WDAM

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 60.20 -1.15 67,520

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 62.00 63.30 64.30

Support 60.00 59.40 57.60

Commentary

Overview: The name has been trading in a tight range between QR62.00 and QR58.00. It is possible to trade along these lines and expect the price to dip to the QR58.00 level. We base our opinion on the fact that WDAM tried to break above QR62.00 and could not do so in the last three sessions. Thus, a price drop could be possible from these levels. Expected Price Retreat: QR58.00 Unless we break above the QR62.00 level on a sustained basis, it is more likely for WDAM to retreat to the bottom end of its range.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,836.07 11,734.30 11,771.37 11,794.28 11,831.36 11,868.43 11,891.34 11,928.42 12,422.31 13,075.79 12,997.56

Total Return 17,653.39 17,501.60 17,556.89 17,591.06 17,646.36 17,701.65 17,735.82 17,791.12 18,527.76 19,502.42 19,384.34

All Share 3,044.94 3,020.34 3,029.14 3,034.57 3,043.37 3,052.17 3,057.60 3,066.40 3,172.77 3,321.32 3,301.19

Al Rayan Islamic 4,015.81 3,967.00 3,987.40 4,000.00 4,020.40 4,040.80 4,053.40 4,073.80 4,177.61 4,403.46 4,361.36

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 44.00 42.93 43.35 43.61 44.03 44.45 44.71 45.13 45.59 49.73 50.99

CBQK 65.90 64.37 64.98 65.36 65.97 66.58 66.96 67.57 68.86 70.67 69.15

DHBK 58.20 57.33 57.60 57.77 58.03 58.30 58.47 58.73 56.82 58.26 59.57

QIBK 103.40 100.80 101.56 102.04 102.80 103.56 104.04 104.80 102.75 108.47 102.87

QIIK 77.70 76.37 76.86 77.17 77.67 78.16 78.47 78.97 81.10 84.66 84.50

Insurance

QATI 84.00 82.33 82.91 83.26 83.83 84.41 84.76 85.33 87.35 92.90 87.60

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 121.00 119.73 120.38 120.78 121.43 122.08 122.48 123.13 121.24 124.62 109.46

Industrials

IQCD 146.50 144.50 145.07 145.43 146.00 146.57 146.93 147.50 171.90 181.43 181.35

QEWS 190.00 185.07 186.75 187.79 189.47 191.15 192.19 193.87 187.91 188.05 186.74

GISS 95.80 94.87 95.13 95.30 95.57 95.83 96.00 96.27 99.04 110.54 105.55

QIGD 39.00 37.27 38.26 38.87 39.87 40.86 41.47 42.47 41.14 47.96 54.35

Real Estate

BRES 44.75 43.25 43.88 44.27 44.90 45.53 45.92 46.55 44.55 43.36 41.59

UDCD 24.15 23.46 23.74 23.91 24.19 24.47 24.64 24.92 24.46 26.29 26.17

ERES 14.60 14.22 14.40 14.52 14.70 14.88 15.00 15.18 15.84 17.66 21.22

MRDS 19.60 19.04 19.30 19.45 19.71 19.97 20.12 20.38 19.95 21.96 20.92

Telecommunication

ORDS 117.00 114.73 115.38 115.78 116.43 117.08 117.48 118.13 117.18 122.90 130.90

VFQS 15.00 14.92 14.96 14.99 15.03 15.07 15.10 15.14 16.28 18.59 18.69

Transportation

QGTS 23.29 22.94 23.05 23.12 23.23 23.34 23.41 23.52 23.09 23.71 23.59

QNNS 97.70 95.10 95.90 96.40 97.20 98.00 98.50 99.30 97.30 97.08 95.90 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.