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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 25 January 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

CBQK 65.40 64.40

GISS 95.70 91.50

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,698.86 -1.3 11.1

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 11,750 11,850 12,000

Support 11,600 11,480 11,250

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index dropped last Thursday confirming our expectations of the bearish attitude among traders. We expect the bearishness to continue as technical indicators show that the Index is trading below its SMAs. The MACD and the RSI are pointing south and expected to continue to do so unless a fundamental change takes place to reverse the course of the Index. Expected Resistance Level: 12,000 The 11,750 and the 11,850 levels are considered to be soft levels of resistance. Indeed, breaching above the mentioned levels may drive the Index higher. Expected Support Level: 11,750

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 22 Jan 15 21 Jan 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 517.2 634.2 -18.4

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 637.7 645.2 -1.2

Volume (mn) 10.3 12.4 -16.9

Number of Trans. 6,458 7,223 -10.6

Companies Traded 40 40 0.0

Market Breadth 21:17 16:21 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,448.74 -1.3 39.0

All Share Index 3,014.69 -1.0 40.0

Banks 3,056.11 -1.7 38.2

Industrials 3,722.59 -0.8 36.6

Transportation 2,303.09 0.6 51.9

Real Estate 2,254.27 -0.8 48.1

Insurance 3,745.56 0.2 48.5

Telecoms 1,369.17 -0.7 42.1

Consumer 7,107.96 -0.1 57.0

Al Rayan Islamic 4,004.71 -1.0 45.6

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QNBK 190.10 -3.0 29.0

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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CBQK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 65.40 -0.91 239,455

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 68.00 69.00 70.00

Support 65.00 63.10 61.00

Commentary

Overview: CBQK’s 50SMA crossed below the 200SMA on the daily chart, creating what is known as the Death Cross. This is a confirmation of the bearishness of the coming move and the momentum of this trend may continue down for an extended time. At best, the name will go through a volatile move extending no more than the QR69.00 price level. The MACD and the RSI are both pointing down on the daily chart, concluding the same. Expected Price Retreat: QR64.40 – QR61.00 Only a break below QR65.00 will trigger the sell recommendation on the bank.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GISS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 95.70 -0.73 308,789

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 99.00 100.00 106.00

Support 95.00 91.50 86.70

Commentary

Overview: The name is trading below a downtrend resistance line and there are more bearish indications to suggest further possible drop in price. On the daily chart, the MACD is below zero and failed to break above it. At this point, it is losing momentum (shown by the MACD’s Histogram). The RSI is in the neutral area. On the Intraday chart, both the MACD and the RSI are pointing down. Expected Price Retreat: QR91.50 Only a sustained break below QR95.00 may take the price to the projected retreat target.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,698.86 11,593.07 11,653.69 11,691.14 11,751.75 11,812.37 11,849.82 11,910.43 12,497.71 13,112.10 12,999.56

Total Return 17,448.74 17,290.95 17,381.37 17,437.22 17,527.63 17,618.05 17,673.90 17,764.31 18,640.21 19,556.57 19,386.82

All Share 3,014.69 2,993.70 3,005.73 3,013.16 3,025.19 3,037.22 3,044.65 3,056.68 3,189.87 3,329.58 3,301.62

Al Rayan Islamic 4,004.71 3,973.70 3,991.47 4,002.45 4,020.21 4,037.98 4,048.96 4,066.72 4,201.88 4,417.09 4,358.60

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 43.90 43.53 43.74 43.87 44.08 44.29 44.42 44.63 45.82 49.93 50.97

CBQK 65.40 63.80 64.37 64.73 65.30 65.87 66.23 66.80 69.14 70.72 69.14

DHBK 57.50 56.43 56.85 57.11 57.53 57.95 58.21 58.63 56.84 58.33 59.59

QIBK 103.50 101.97 102.85 103.39 104.27 105.15 105.69 106.57 103.01 108.84 102.59

QIIK 78.50 77.57 78.03 78.31 78.77 79.23 79.51 79.97 81.37 84.87 84.48

Insurance

QATI 84.00 82.33 83.10 83.57 84.33 85.10 85.57 86.33 87.85 93.20 87.44

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 123.40 121.53 122.07 122.40 122.93 123.47 123.80 124.33 121.43 124.82 109.00

Industrials

IQCD 145.10 143.63 144.47 144.99 145.83 146.67 147.19 148.03 173.86 182.39 181.75

QEWS 194.00 191.93 192.93 193.54 194.53 195.53 196.14 197.13 187.77 187.77 186.60

GISS 95.70 94.63 95.21 95.56 96.13 96.71 97.06 97.63 100.22 110.99 105.47

QIGD 38.60 37.80 38.07 38.23 38.50 38.77 38.93 39.20 41.52 48.36 54.54

Real Estate

BRES 44.35 43.25 43.82 44.18 44.75 45.32 45.68 46.25 44.77 43.26 41.52

UDCD 24.04 23.57 23.84 24.01 24.28 24.55 24.72 24.99 24.57 26.39 26.14

ERES 14.52 14.43 14.46 14.49 14.53 14.56 14.59 14.63 16.03 17.75 21.25

MRDS 20.30 19.88 20.09 20.21 20.42 20.63 20.75 20.96 20.13 22.06 20.88

Telecommunication

ORDS 114.80 113.47 113.85 114.08 114.47 114.85 115.08 115.47 117.31 122.98 131.16

VFQS 14.88 14.61 14.76 14.86 15.02 15.17 15.27 15.43 16.44 18.69 18.67

Transportation

QGTS 23.48 23.01 23.18 23.28 23.44 23.61 23.71 23.87 23.14 23.72 23.56

QNNS 96.50 94.30 94.99 95.41 96.10 96.79 97.21 97.90 97.52 96.94 95.85 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.