11 January Daily technical trader

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Sunday, 11 January 2015

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    IQCD 176.00 168.80

    KCBK 22.00 22.50

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 12,305.52 3.4 9.2

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 12,350 12,430 12,800

    Support 12,000 11,850 11,600

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: The QSE Index started the year on a weaker note, losing 0.16% from the week before. The Index experienced a sharp fall at the start of the week (lost 5.6%) then recovered, creating a long legged Doji candlestick for the week. The Index reached the lower side of a downtrend channel and could lose momentum from the level; it is also trading below the SMAs on the daily and MACD is below zero line. On the intraday chart, the RSI reached overbought area and touched the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD on that time frame is losing momentum as exhibited by the Histogram turning back to the zero level. Expected Resistance Level: 12,350 Expected Support Level: 11,850

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 08 Jan 15 07 Jan 15 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 999.8 515.0 94.1

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 677.4 656.8 3.1

    Volume (mn) 20.8 12.1 71.9

    Number of Trans. 10,475.0 7,440 40.8

    Companies Traded 41 41 0.0

    Market Breadth 37:3 28:11

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 18,353.57 3.4 49.3

    All Share Index 3,151.47 3.1 50.0

    Banks 3,202.37 3.6 50.5

    Industrials 4,112.96 3.4 52.5

    Transportation 2,297.30 2.2 52.7

    Real Estate 2,242.42 3.2 45.2

    Insurance 3,800.03 1.7 50.8

    Telecoms 1,414.29 1.3 47.3

    Consumer 7,034.40 1.3 53.2

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,130.69 3.8 50.1

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    IQCD

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 176.00 5.39 1,003,675

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 178.00 183.20 186.00

    Support 170.00 168.80 163.00

    Commentary

    Overview: IQCDs BoD recommended QR7.00 in cash dividends for 2014. From a technical perspective, the price may see a decline from its last closing. The names SMAs created what is known as the Death Cross (circled in red on the daily chart). This cross was created by the 50SMA crossing below the 200SMA. This is a bearish momentum signal. The last time the name experienced a Death Cross was the cross between the 100SMA below the 200SMA, the name dropped over 7.5%. Thus, we conclude that the name will be affected by bearish sentiment and could retreat back to the base of the price range. It is also worth mentioning that there is a price gap QR171.00 and QR167.00 (denoted with the red box on the intraday chart). QR167.00 could be reached with the expected drop. Expected Price Retreat: QR168.80 QR167.00

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    KCBK

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 22.00 0.92 218,399

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 22.16 22.50 23.00

    Support 21.50 21.00 20.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The bank has been trading in a tight price range after creating a medium-term Symmetrical Triangle price formation. The price reached the upper side of the triangle. Strong resistance might be experienced there as the price retreated every time it reached that side of the triangle. All indicators show neutrality to the momentum which a typical characteristic to the price range. If the price breaks above QR22.16, then we may have an uptick on the name. Expected Target Price: QR22.50 QR23.00 Only a sustained break above QR22.16 could swing the price upward to the projected target. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR21.90 A break below the level proves the resistance is still intact and price drop could take place, expected to reach the lower side of the triangle at around QR21.50.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 12,305.52 11,983.40 12,082.31 12,143.42 12,242.33 12,341.24 12,402.35 12,501.26 12,857.95 13,291.44 12,981.14

    Total Return 18,353.57 17,873.12 18,020.65 18,111.79 18,259.32 18,406.85 18,497.99 18,645.52 19,177.51 19,824.06 19,354.12

    All Share 3,151.47 3,074.64 3,098.22 3,112.78 3,136.35 3,159.93 3,174.49 3,198.06 3,270.87 3,370.09 3,296.58

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,130.69 4,007.28 4,044.53 4,067.54 4,104.79 4,142.04 4,165.05 4,202.30 4,313.95 4,489.39 4,335.24

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 43.90 41.17 42.05 42.59 43.47 44.35 44.89 45.77 47.16 51.15 50.72

    CBQK 68.00 65.87 66.67 67.16 67.97 68.77 69.26 70.07 70.48 70.81 68.89

    DHBK 56.30 55.03 55.49 55.77 56.23 56.69 56.97 57.43 57.39 58.75 59.78

    QIBK 105.00 101.73 102.84 103.53 104.63 105.74 106.43 107.53 104.16 110.00 101.00

    QIIK 80.50 78.03 78.84 79.33 80.13 80.94 81.43 82.23 82.76 85.60 84.12

    Insurance

    QATI 85.70 84.17 85.05 85.59 86.47 87.35 87.89 88.77 90.49 94.41 86.45

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 125.00 118.00 120.10 121.40 123.50 125.60 126.90 129.00 121.89 125.66 106.25

    Industrials

    IQCD 176.00 168.00 170.67 172.33 175.00 177.67 179.33 182.00 183.19 186.26 183.44

    QEWS 188.50 186.30 187.41 188.09 189.20 190.31 190.99 192.10 187.17 187.54 185.70

    GISS 100.00 95.67 97.77 99.07 101.17 103.27 104.57 106.67 105.62 113.28 104.55

    QIGD 39.25 37.68 38.47 38.95 39.73 40.52 41.00 41.78 43.65 50.47 55.37

    Real Estate

    BRES 42.90 40.73 41.44 41.88 42.58 43.29 43.73 44.43 45.20 43.14 41.17

    UDCD 23.80 22.87 23.18 23.36 23.66 23.97 24.15 24.45 25.01 26.99 25.97

    ERES 14.70 14.43 14.55 14.62 14.74 14.86 14.93 15.05 17.06 18.28 21.32

    MRDS 19.20 18.23 18.52 18.71 19.01 19.30 19.49 19.79 21.06 22.48 20.60

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 118.30 116.77 117.53 118.00 118.77 119.53 120.00 120.77 118.56 123.93 132.33

    VFQS 15.50 15.07 15.24 15.35 15.51 15.68 15.79 15.95 17.52 19.34 18.53

    Transportation

    QGTS 23.00 22.59 22.72 22.81 22.95 23.08 23.17 23.31 23.32 23.84 23.39

    QNNS 98.00 95.47 96.38 96.95 97.87 98.78 99.35 100.27 98.06 96.78 95.59 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

    considered as overbought, and below