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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Sunday, 11 January 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target IQCD 176.00 168.80 KCBK 22.00 22.50 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 12,305.52 3.4 9.2 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,350 12,430 12,800 Support 12,000 11,850 11,600 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The QSE Index started the year on a weaker note, losing 0.16% from the week before. The Index experienced a sharp fall at the start of the week (lost 5.6%) then recovered, creating a long legged Doji candlestick for the week. The Index reached the lower side of a downtrend channel and could lose momentum from the level; it is also trading below the SMAs on the daily and MACD is below zero line. On the intraday chart, the RSI reached overbought area and touched the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD on that time frame is losing momentum as exhibited by the Histogram turning back to the zero level. Expected Resistance Level: 12,350 Expected Support Level: 11,850 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 08 Jan 15 07 Jan 15 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 999.8 515.0 94.1 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 677.4 656.8 3.1 Volume (mn) 20.8 12.1 71.9 Number of Trans. 10,475.0 7,440 40.8 Companies Traded 41 41 0.0 Market Breadth 37:3 28:11 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,353.57 3.4 49.3 All Share Index 3,151.47 3.1 50.0 Banks 3,202.37 3.6 50.5 Industrials 4,112.96 3.4 52.5 Transportation 2,297.30 2.2 52.7 Real Estate 2,242.42 3.2 45.2 Insurance 3,800.03 1.7 50.8 Telecoms 1,414.29 1.3 47.3 Consumer 7,034.40 1.3 53.2 Al Rayan Islamic 4,130.69 3.8 50.1 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

11 January Daily technical trader

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 11 January 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

IQCD 176.00 168.80

KCBK 22.00 22.50

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,305.52 3.4 9.2

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,350 12,430 12,800

Support 12,000 11,850 11,600

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index started the year on a weaker note, losing 0.16% from the week before. The Index experienced a sharp fall at the start of the week (lost 5.6%) then recovered, creating a long legged Doji candlestick for the week. The Index reached the lower side of a downtrend channel and could lose momentum from the level; it is also trading below the SMAs on the daily and MACD is below zero line. On the intraday chart, the RSI reached overbought area and touched the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The MACD on that time frame is losing momentum as exhibited by the Histogram turning back to the zero level. Expected Resistance Level: 12,350 Expected Support Level: 11,850

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 08 Jan 15 07 Jan 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 999.8 515.0 94.1

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 677.4 656.8 3.1

Volume (mn) 20.8 12.1 71.9

Number of Trans. 10,475.0 7,440 40.8

Companies Traded 41 41 0.0

Market Breadth 37:3 28:11 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,353.57 3.4 49.3

All Share Index 3,151.47 3.1 50.0

Banks 3,202.37 3.6 50.5

Industrials 4,112.96 3.4 52.5

Transportation 2,297.30 2.2 52.7

Real Estate 2,242.42 3.2 45.2

Insurance 3,800.03 1.7 50.8

Telecoms 1,414.29 1.3 47.3

Consumer 7,034.40 1.3 53.2

Al Rayan Islamic 4,130.69 3.8 50.1

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 176.00 5.39 1,003,675

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 178.00 183.20 186.00

Support 170.00 168.80 163.00

Commentary

Overview: IQCD’s BoD recommended QR7.00 in cash dividends for 2014. From a technical perspective, the price may see a decline from its last closing. The name’s SMAs created what is known as the Death Cross (circled in red on the daily chart). This cross was created by the 50SMA crossing below the 200SMA. This is a bearish momentum signal. The last time the name experienced a Death Cross was the cross between the 100SMA below the 200SMA, the name dropped over 7.5%. Thus, we conclude that the name will be affected by bearish sentiment and could retreat back to the base of the price range. It is also worth mentioning that there is a price gap QR171.00 and QR167.00 (denoted with the red box on the intraday chart). QR167.00 could be reached with the expected drop. Expected Price Retreat: QR168.80 – QR167.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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KCBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 22.00 0.92 218,399

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 22.16 22.50 23.00

Support 21.50 21.00 20.00

Commentary

Overview: The bank has been trading in a tight price range after creating a medium-term Symmetrical Triangle price formation. The price reached the upper side of the triangle. Strong resistance might be experienced there as the price retreated every time it reached that side of the triangle. All indicators show neutrality to the momentum which a typical characteristic to the price range. If the price breaks above QR22.16, then we may have an uptick on the name. Expected Target Price: QR22.50 – QR23.00 Only a sustained break above QR22.16 could swing the price upward to the projected target. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR21.90 A break below the level proves the resistance is still intact and price drop could take place, expected to reach the lower side of the triangle at around QR21.50.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,305.52 11,983.40 12,082.31 12,143.42 12,242.33 12,341.24 12,402.35 12,501.26 12,857.95 13,291.44 12,981.14

Total Return 18,353.57 17,873.12 18,020.65 18,111.79 18,259.32 18,406.85 18,497.99 18,645.52 19,177.51 19,824.06 19,354.12

All Share 3,151.47 3,074.64 3,098.22 3,112.78 3,136.35 3,159.93 3,174.49 3,198.06 3,270.87 3,370.09 3,296.58

Al Rayan Islamic 4,130.69 4,007.28 4,044.53 4,067.54 4,104.79 4,142.04 4,165.05 4,202.30 4,313.95 4,489.39 4,335.24

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 43.90 41.17 42.05 42.59 43.47 44.35 44.89 45.77 47.16 51.15 50.72

CBQK 68.00 65.87 66.67 67.16 67.97 68.77 69.26 70.07 70.48 70.81 68.89

DHBK 56.30 55.03 55.49 55.77 56.23 56.69 56.97 57.43 57.39 58.75 59.78

QIBK 105.00 101.73 102.84 103.53 104.63 105.74 106.43 107.53 104.16 110.00 101.00

QIIK 80.50 78.03 78.84 79.33 80.13 80.94 81.43 82.23 82.76 85.60 84.12

Insurance

QATI 85.70 84.17 85.05 85.59 86.47 87.35 87.89 88.77 90.49 94.41 86.45

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 125.00 118.00 120.10 121.40 123.50 125.60 126.90 129.00 121.89 125.66 106.25

Industrials

IQCD 176.00 168.00 170.67 172.33 175.00 177.67 179.33 182.00 183.19 186.26 183.44

QEWS 188.50 186.30 187.41 188.09 189.20 190.31 190.99 192.10 187.17 187.54 185.70

GISS 100.00 95.67 97.77 99.07 101.17 103.27 104.57 106.67 105.62 113.28 104.55

QIGD 39.25 37.68 38.47 38.95 39.73 40.52 41.00 41.78 43.65 50.47 55.37

Real Estate

BRES 42.90 40.73 41.44 41.88 42.58 43.29 43.73 44.43 45.20 43.14 41.17

UDCD 23.80 22.87 23.18 23.36 23.66 23.97 24.15 24.45 25.01 26.99 25.97

ERES 14.70 14.43 14.55 14.62 14.74 14.86 14.93 15.05 17.06 18.28 21.32

MRDS 19.20 18.23 18.52 18.71 19.01 19.30 19.49 19.79 21.06 22.48 20.60

Telecommunication

ORDS 118.30 116.77 117.53 118.00 118.77 119.53 120.00 120.77 118.56 123.93 132.33

VFQS 15.50 15.07 15.24 15.35 15.51 15.68 15.79 15.95 17.52 19.34 18.53

Transportation

QGTS 23.00 22.59 22.72 22.81 22.95 23.08 23.17 23.31 23.32 23.84 23.39

QNNS 98.00 95.47 96.38 96.95 97.87 98.78 99.35 100.27 98.06 96.78 95.59 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.