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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 20 January 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

ERES 14.45 14.70

GWCS 55.30 56.30

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 11,891.46 -0.2 5.6

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,000 12,250 12,430

Support 11,850 11,600 11,480

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index stabilized yet another day in a tight range between the 12,000 level and the 11,850 level. Technical indicators are at status quo. Momentum indicators and oscillators are becoming more passive and at neutral standing. Expected Resistance Level: 12,250 A strong break above 12,000 could propel the Index to the proposed target. Expected Support Level: 11,850

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 19 Jan 15 18 Jan 15 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 626.3 312.3 100.5

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 647.9 650.1 -0.3

Volume (mn) 13.2 6.6 100.0

Number of Trans. 6,209 4,519 37.4

Companies Traded 41 41 0.0

Market Breadth 17:22 21:16 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 17,736.01 -0.2 43.2

All Share Index 3,049.62 -0.3 43.3

Banks 3,154.14 -0.6 46.7

Industrials 3,730.87 -0.3 36.3

Transportation 2,316.49 0.2 53.8

Real Estate 2,245.38 1.2 47.4

Insurance 3,695.72 -1.1 44.1

Telecoms 1,380.37 -0.7 43.8

Consumer 6,939.82 -0.4 49.7

Al Rayan Islamic 4,011.52 0.0 46.0

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IQCD 145.30 -0.5 28.8

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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ERES

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 14.45 0.21 238,528

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 14.55 14.70 15.00

Support 14.38 14.00 13.00

Commentary

Overview: ERES stabilized above the QR13.00 price level for the past two months. Downtrend is still intact but a bounce is possible. Stability at these levels implies ease of selling pressure and strength from the bulls’ side. The MACD and the RSI are pointing upwards. In relative terms, bullish momentum can be derived from the mentioned indicators. Expected Target Price: QR14.70 – QR15.00 A break above QR14.50 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss price: QR14.35

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GWCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 55.30 0.55 126,067

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 56.30 58.00 59.40

Support 54.00 53.50 52.00

Commentary

Overview: GWCS witnessed a break above the downtrend channel and tried to sustain the price at the current levels. It is worth mentioning that the name started to create a price range bound between QR53.50 and QR57.20. A price range is created when the price oscillates between the moving averages, which usually creates volatile range in this case. The RSI broke above its downtrend line and headed upward, which can be considered a bullish sign on the daily chart. On the intraday chart, the MACD is flattening but trying to break above the zero line. Expected Target Price: QR56.30 – QR 57.00 A sustained break above QR55.50 triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss price: QR54.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 11,891.46 11,793.60 11,837.69 11,864.93 11,909.02 11,953.11 11,980.35 12,024.44 12,614.21 13,173.25 12,999.93

Total Return 17,736.01 17,590.04 17,655.80 17,696.43 17,762.19 17,827.95 17,868.58 17,934.34 18,813.98 19,647.78 19,386.66

All Share 3,049.62 3,028.01 3,037.55 3,043.44 3,052.98 3,062.52 3,068.41 3,077.95 3,216.19 3,343.45 3,301.63

Al Rayan Islamic 4,011.52 3,983.97 3,993.59 3,999.53 4,009.16 4,018.78 4,024.72 4,034.35 4,236.11 4,440.13 4,352.76

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 45.00 44.03 44.47 44.74 45.18 45.62 45.89 46.33 46.19 50.32 50.91

CBQK 66.60 64.87 65.63 66.10 66.87 67.63 68.10 68.87 69.62 70.80 69.12

DHBK 56.60 55.87 56.21 56.42 56.77 57.11 57.32 57.67 56.97 58.45 59.66

QIBK 104.20 100.93 102.58 103.59 105.23 106.88 107.89 109.53 103.35 109.39 102.15

QIIK 79.50 77.83 78.37 78.70 79.23 79.77 80.10 80.63 81.75 85.22 84.40

Insurance

QATI 83.90 83.30 83.49 83.61 83.80 83.99 84.11 84.30 88.64 93.61 87.17

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 122.90 114.23 117.40 119.36 122.53 125.70 127.66 130.83 121.61 125.19 108.24

Industrials

IQCD 145.30 144.03 144.64 145.02 145.63 146.24 146.62 147.23 176.92 183.74 182.36

QEWS 189.00 187.67 188.43 188.90 189.67 190.43 190.90 191.67 187.45 187.59 186.33

GISS 98.50 96.17 96.93 97.40 98.17 98.93 99.40 100.17 102.14 111.73 105.30

QIGD 38.20 36.33 36.94 37.32 37.93 38.54 38.92 39.53 42.12 48.99 54.79

Real Estate

BRES 44.40 42.27 42.95 43.38 44.07 44.75 45.18 45.87 44.99 43.16 41.40

UDCD 24.06 23.65 23.77 23.85 23.98 24.10 24.18 24.31 24.67 26.55 26.08

ERES 14.45 14.26 14.33 14.37 14.45 14.52 14.56 14.64 16.31 17.90 21.27

MRDS 19.24 18.76 18.95 19.06 19.25 19.44 19.55 19.74 20.36 22.19 20.80

Telecommunication

ORDS 116.20 114.80 115.37 115.73 116.30 116.87 117.23 117.80 117.63 123.26 131.52

VFQS 14.79 14.60 14.67 14.71 14.77 14.84 14.88 14.94 16.70 18.89 18.63

Transportation

QGTS 23.44 22.95 23.13 23.24 23.42 23.60 23.71 23.89 23.20 23.75 23.52

QNNS 98.00 94.20 95.61 96.49 97.90 99.31 100.19 101.60 97.93 96.91 95.78 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.