4 January Daily technical trader

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Sunday, 04 January 2015

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    IQCD 168.00 162.00

    QGTS 23.10 22.00

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 12,285.78 -0.3 16.6

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 12,430 12,600 12,800

    Support 12,200 11,430 10,900

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: The QSE Index concluded the last day of 2014 losing 0.34%. Over the week, the Index was trading in a tight range between a high of 12,788.33 and a low of 12,189.99. Traders booked profits on lower volumes, which is a positive sign. The good news is that the Index closed above the expected support of 12,200. Indicators, on the other hand, are still showing mixed signals because of the range made over the past two sessions. Expected Target Level: 12,430 Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 31 Dec 14 30 Dec 14 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 528.3 1,050.1 -49.7

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 676.8 677.8 -0.1

    Volume (mn) 13.4 23.4 -42.7

    Number of Trans. 6,884 10,596 -35.0

    Companies Traded 43 43 0.0

    Market Breadth 20:21 5:35

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 18,324.12 -0.3 46.6

    All Share Index 3,151.00 -0.2 48.0

    Banks 3,203.99 -0.3 48.3

    Industrials 4,039.63 -1.1 47.4

    Transportation 2,318.49 2.3 54.8

    Real Estate 2,244.48 -1.1 42.4

    Insurance 3,958.54 0.0 61.4

    Telecoms 1,485.62 3.3 56.7

    Consumer 6,907.44 0.5 48.7

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,101.39 -0.4 46.8

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QGRI 59.00 -1.5 79.0

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    IQCD

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 168.00 -2.50 194,763

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 170.00 173.00 177.00

    Support 168.00 164.00 162.00

    Commentary

    Overview: The Industrial sectors leader is expected to travel south in the coming sessions, filling a price gap created middle of December 2014. Two reversal candlesticks created the Tweezers Top (circled in red). That reversal formation was confirmed by lower prices since its inception. Technical indicators support the theorem. The MACD, while under the zero line, is losing more ground (confirmed by its Histogram) and the RSI could not break above the neutral zone on the hourly chart. On the intraday chart, the MACD stepped back into the bearish zone below the zero line; the RSIs trend is down. Expected Price Retreat: QR162.00 QR160.00 The price gap is expected to be filled with this retracement and downward momentum could take the price even further to QR160.00.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6

    QGTS

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 23.10 0.87 253,933

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 23.20 23.70 24.00

    Support 22.50 22.00 21.00

    Commentary

    Overview: Although the name is trading in a wide price range between QR22.50 QR23.20, there are signs that the name could be losing momentum. A Tweezers Top reversal pattern was created (denoted in the red oval) and confirmed by the stock trading lower since its creation. The name is trading below its daily moving averages, which is a bearish signal. The MACD, on the daily frame, is printing below the zero line and losing more momentum. On the other hand, the hourly is giving an opposite signal. The MACD is above the zero line and the RSI is pointing north. The reason for the bearish call is that the there is more bearish momentum coming from the daily price action. Furthermore, the name is struggling to break above the downtrend line. Expected Price Retreat: QR22.00 QR21.00 Because of the mixed signals given by the technical indicators, a confirmation needs to take place before a sell action can be initiated. That confirmation is trading below QR22.50.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6

    Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 12,285.78 12,075.07 12,159.21 12,211.20 12,295.35 12,379.49 12,431.48 12,515.63 13,002.59 13,345.76 12,964.35

    Total Return 18,324.12 18,009.85 18,135.36 18,212.89 18,338.39 18,463.90 18,541.43 18,666.93 19,393.24 19,905.08 19,324.22

    All Share 3,151.00 3,102.68 3,121.82 3,133.64 3,152.78 3,171.92 3,183.74 3,202.88 3,302.91 3,381.52 3,291.79

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,101.39 4,022.13 4,055.52 4,076.15 4,109.54 4,142.93 4,163.56 4,196.95 4,363.55 4,513.93 4,321.20

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 44.20 43.13 43.69 44.03 44.58 45.14 45.48 46.03 48.18 51.74 50.61

    CBQK 68.50 65.30 66.22 66.78 67.70 68.62 69.18 70.10 71.05 70.85 68.78

    DHBK 57.00 55.53 56.03 56.34 56.83 57.33 57.64 58.13 57.67 58.85 59.83

    QIBK 102.20 99.40 100.74 101.56 102.90 104.24 105.06 106.40 105.45 110.39 100.28

    QIIK 81.70 79.50 80.15 80.55 81.20 81.85 82.25 82.90 83.52 85.86 83.92

    Insurance

    QATI 90.60 88.87 89.63 90.10 90.87 91.63 92.10 92.87 91.67 94.68 85.87

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 117.00 112.20 113.80 114.80 116.40 118.00 119.00 120.60 122.49 125.82 104.84

    Industrials

    IQCD 168.00 165.20 166.77 167.73 169.30 170.87 171.83 173.40 185.39 186.39 183.64

    QEWS 187.50 185.83 186.60 187.07 187.83 188.60 189.07 189.83 187.24 187.32 185.23

    GISS 97.10 94.37 95.89 96.84 98.37 99.89 100.84 102.37 108.05 114.41 104.10

    QIGD 41.40 39.80 40.37 40.73 41.30 41.87 42.23 42.80 44.71 51.36 55.73

    Real Estate

    BRES 41.90 40.30 41.03 41.47 42.20 42.93 43.37 44.10 45.22 43.10 41.04

    UDCD 23.59 22.76 23.02 23.18 23.43 23.69 23.85 24.10 25.45 27.33 25.91

    ERES 14.92 14.44 14.71 14.87 15.14 15.41 15.57 15.84 17.48 18.53 21.36

    MRDS 19.15 18.33 18.63 18.81 19.11 19.41 19.59 19.89 21.58 22.66 20.46

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 123.90 116.03 118.29 119.68 121.93 124.19 125.58 127.83 119.22 124.42 132.81

    VFQS 16.45 15.82 16.05 16.19 16.42 16.65 16.79 17.02 18.01 19.55 18.45

    Transportation

    QGTS 23.10 22.32 22.58 22.74 23.00 23.26 23.42 23.68 23.43 23.94 23.35

    QNNS 99.50 92.70 94.65 95.85 97.80 99.75 100.95 102.90 97.98 96.62 95.47 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

    considered as overbought, and below 30 could be