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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 05 January 2015

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

QIIK 80.90 78.50

WDAM 60.00 56.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 12,229.08 -0.5 9.0

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12,430 12,600 12,800

Support 12,200 11,430 10,900

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index lost ground accompanied with low traded volume. Technical indicators are still at a standstill. It should be noted that the Index could make what is known as the ‘Death Cross’ which a cross of the 50SMA below the 200SMA. While this situation is yet to pass, we do note that the moving averages are becoming dangerously close to each other. Last instance of a Death Cross was when the 50SMA closed below the 100SMA during the beginning of December 2014; the Index then lost about 14%. Thus, we advise traders stay away from the market for the time being until the cross clears. Expected Target Level: 12,430 Suggested Stop-Loss Level: 12,200

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 04 Jan 15 31 Dec 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 194.5 528.3 -63.2

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 673.5 676.8 -0.5

Volume (mn) 6.1 13.4 -54.5

Number of Trans. 3,995 6,884 -42.0

Companies Traded 39 43 -9.3

Market Breadth 11:25 20:21 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 18,239.56 -0.5 45.7

All Share Index 3,135.71 -0.5 46.9

Banks 3,180.75 -0.7 46.5

Industrials 4,040.51 0.0 47.4

Transportation 2,311.83 -0.3 54.1

Real Estate 2,245.49 0.0 42.5

Insurance 3,901.06 -1.5 57.0

Telecoms 1,455.01 -2.1 52.3

Consumer 6,896.93 -0.2 48.4

Al Rayan Islamic 4,087.61 -0.3 46.3

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

AHCS 15.50 2.0 70.7

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QIIK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 80.90 -0.98 35,913

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 81.70 83.40 85.00

Support 78.50 74.50 68.00

Commentary

Overview: The bank made three ‘indecision’ candlesticks over the past sessions, stabilizing above the QR80.00 price level. Usually this is a reversal sign for the previous move. The previous move was a bullish one. While the name is looking for a direction, we expect a drop below QR80.00 is possible as indicated by the following technical factors: The price is trading below the major uptrend line and it could not break above the downtrend line. The bank is also trading below its SMAs, indicating a bearish scenario is more probable. The MACD is below the zero line and is losing further momentum as indicated by its Histogram. Expected Price Retreat: QR78.50 – QR76.25 Price is expected to retreat to the above mentioned levels if the stock breaks below QR80.00.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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WDAM

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 60.00 -0.66 6,145

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 63.00 64.40 67.20

Support 60.00 56.00 52.20

Commentary

Overview: Although Widam stabilized above QR60.00, the name created three bearish candlesticks while being in a short-term tight price range. This price range is bounded by QR64.40 and QR60.00. Over the medium-term, WDAM is trading below an uptrend line, and failed to break that line in multiple attempts last December. Widam has also traded multiple times just above its 200SMA. The MACD suggests it is more likely for the share to suffer a fall in the near future. In addition, on the intraday chart, a short-term Double Top (a bearish price formation) can be noticed. A break below the QR60.00 level will confirm the formation’s validity. Expected Price Retreat: QR56.00 – QR52.20 A price drop below QR60.00 should initiate the sell call.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 12,229.08 12,084.75 12,149.83 12,190.04 12,255.12 12,320.20 12,360.41 12,425.49 12,980.60 13,337.02 12,968.78

Total Return 18,239.56 18,024.29 18,121.36 18,181.33 18,278.40 18,375.47 18,435.44 18,532.51 19,360.44 19,892.04 19,331.89

All Share 3,135.71 3,098.04 3,114.95 3,125.40 3,142.31 3,159.22 3,169.67 3,186.58 3,298.08 3,379.81 3,293.04

Al Rayan Islamic 4,087.61 4,016.49 4,045.74 4,063.82 4,093.07 4,122.32 4,140.40 4,169.65 4,355.70 4,509.91 4,324.44

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 43.35 41.95 42.56 42.94 43.55 44.16 44.54 45.15 47.99 51.64 50.64

CBQK 66.90 66.23 66.62 66.85 67.23 67.62 67.85 68.23 70.97 70.84 68.80

DHBK 57.30 55.97 56.35 56.58 56.97 57.35 57.58 57.97 57.66 58.85 59.83

QIBK 102.60 102.60 102.60 102.60 102.60 102.60 102.60 102.60 105.24 110.30 100.42

QIIK 80.90 79.30 79.87 80.23 80.80 81.37 81.73 82.30 83.43 85.82 83.96

Insurance

QATI 91.00 91.00 91.00 91.00 91.00 91.00 91.00 91.00 91.52 94.68 86.01

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 119.00 114.33 115.67 116.50 117.83 119.17 120.00 121.33 122.37 125.78 105.12

Industrials

IQCD 168.00 166.67 167.24 167.59 168.17 168.74 169.09 169.67 185.01 186.33 183.60

QEWS 190.60 190.33 190.41 190.46 190.53 190.61 190.66 190.73 187.27 187.40 185.34

GISS 96.10 94.30 95.29 95.91 96.90 97.89 98.51 99.50 107.59 114.19 104.21

QIGD 40.95 39.12 39.65 39.98 40.52 41.05 41.38 41.92 44.53 51.23 55.67

Real Estate

BRES 41.30 39.87 40.54 40.95 41.62 42.29 42.70 43.37 45.23 43.12 41.07

UDCD 23.29 22.74 22.95 23.08 23.30 23.51 23.64 23.86 25.35 27.26 25.92

ERES 15.08 14.71 14.89 15.01 15.20 15.38 15.50 15.69 17.41 18.49 21.35

MRDS 19.00 18.50 18.73 18.87 19.10 19.33 19.47 19.70 21.51 22.64 20.49

Telecommunication

ORDS 121.00 120.67 120.86 120.98 121.17 121.36 121.48 121.67 119.13 124.34 132.73

VFQS 16.27 15.86 16.05 16.17 16.36 16.55 16.67 16.86 17.93 19.52 18.47

Transportation

QGTS 23.00 22.61 22.74 22.82 22.95 23.08 23.16 23.29 23.43 23.93 23.36

QNNS 99.50 92.70 94.65 95.85 97.80 99.75 100.95 102.90 97.98 96.62 95.47 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.