Political Monitor November 2017

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1

Ipsos MORIPOLITICALMONITORNovember

2017

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2

VOTING

INTENTIONS

3Political Monitor | November 2017| Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 24th November – 28th November 2017; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and

always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 785. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%

Voting Intention

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2

37%

39%

9%

4%

4%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN

38%

40%

9%

4%

3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN




Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

2015 General Election

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Jun

16

Jul 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Jun

17

Jul 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Jul 04

Jan

05

Jul 05

Jan

06

Jul 06

Jan

07

Jul 07

Jan

08

Jul 08

Jan

09

Jul 09

Jan

10

Jul 10

Jan

11

Jul 11

Jan

12

Jul 12

Jan

13

Jul 13

Jan

14

Jul 14

Jan

15

Jul 15

Jan

16

Jul 16

Jan

17

Jul 17

2015 General Election

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – November ‘17

2005 General Election 2010 General Election

Cameron

elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Theresa May

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 24th November – 28th November 2017. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

26%

67%

6%

32%

59%

9%

42%

49%

9%

Jeremy Corbyn The Government

-5.5%swing from October 2017

-2%swing from October 2017

-2.5%swing from October 2017

-6%swing from October 2017

-27 Net -7 Net -12 Net -41 Net

SATISFIED 32% SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 26%

DISSATISFIED 59% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 67%

27%

39%

35%

Vince Cable


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER

/LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Nov 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

MAY CORBYN CABLE

32%

42%

27%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2017)

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May

Number of months after becoming Prime Minister


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …

PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2017)


Hague (97-01) Ducan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10)

Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92)

Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94)

Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Corbyn


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 24th November – 28th November 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction)

32%

59%

9%

November 2017 August 2016 – November 2017

SATISFIED 32%

DISSATISFIED 59%

DON’T KNOW 9%

Net = -27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 336 Conservative supporters 18+ , 24th November – 28th November 2017

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters)

59%

32%

9%

November 2017

SATISFIED 59%

DISSATISFIED 32%

DON’T KNOW 9%

Net = +27

August 2016 – November 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dissatisfied

Satisfied


42%

49%

9%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

SATISFIED 42%

DISSATISFIED 49%

DON’T KNOW 9%

Net = -7

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 24th November – 28th November 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

November 2017 September 2015 – November 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


72%

21%

7%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

SATISFIED 72%

DISSATISFIED 21%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = +51

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF

THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 348 Labour supporters 18+, 24th November – 28th November 2017

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)

November 2017 September 2015 – November 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

15Political Monitor | November 2017 | Final | Public

27%

39%

35% SATISFIED 27%

DISSATISFIED 39%

DON’T KNOW 35%

Net = -12

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Vince Cable (satisfaction)

November 2017

Base: 1003 British adults 18+, 24th November – 28th November 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

September 2017 – November 2017

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


15%

24%

58%

3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-07

May-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep

-07

Dec-

07

Feb

-08

Ap

r-08

Jun

-08

Au

g-0

8O

ct-0

8D

ec-

08

Feb

-09

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-

09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0Ja

n-1

1M

ar-

11

May-1

1Ju

l-117

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1Ja

n-1

2M

ar-

12

May-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-

13

May-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3Ja

n-1

4M

ar-

14

May-1

4Ju

l-14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4Ja

n-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

rl-1

6Ju

n-1

6A

ug

-16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

IMPROVE 15%

STAY THE SAME 24%

GET WORSE 58%

DON’T KNOW 3%

EOI = -43

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 18+, 24th November – 28th November 2017

Economic Optimism Index

November 2017


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism at lowest point since December 2011

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

No

v 1

997

Mar

1998

Jul 1998

No

v 1

998

Mar

1999

Jul 1999

No

v 1

999

Mar

2000

Jul 2000

No

v 2

000

Mar

2001

Jul 2001

No

v 2

001

Mar

2002

Jul 2002

No

v 2

002

Mar

2003

Jul 2003

No

v 2

003

Mar

2004

Jul 2004

No

v 2

004

Mar

2005

Jul 2005

No

v 2

005

Mar

2006

Jul 2006

No

v 2

006

Mar

2007

Jul 2007

No

v 2

007

Mar

2008

Jul 2008

No

v 2

008

Mar

2009

Jul 2009

No

v 2

009

Mar

2010

Jul 2010

No

v 2

010

Mar

2011

Jul 2011

No

v 2

011

Mar

2012

Jul 2012

No

v 2

012

Mar

2013

Jul 2013

No

v 2

013

Mar

2014

Jul 2014

No

v 2

014

Mar

2015

Jul 2015

No

v 2

015

Mar

2016

Jul 2016

No

v 2

016

Mar

2017

Jul 2017

No

v 2

017

-43


Budget reaction


ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM,

THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN’S ECONOMY


Majority do not think the Government’s policies will be

AGREE DISAGREE

good for Britain’s economy in the long-term

41%

54%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jul 80

Jul 81

Jul 82

Jul 83

Jul 84

Jul 85

Jul 86

Jul 87

Jul 88

Jul 89

Jul 90

Jul 91

Jul 92

Jul 93

Jul 94

Jul 95

Jul 96

Jul 97

Jul 98

Jul 99

Jul 00

Jul 01

Jul 02

Jul 03

Jul 04

Jul 05

Jul 06

Jul 07

Jul 08

Jul 09

Jul 10

Jul 11

Jul 12

Jul 13

Jul 14

Jul 15

Jul 16

Jul 17


ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM,

THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF PUBLIC SERVICES?


While the public still believe the Government’s policies

AGREE DISAGREE

will be bad for public services

30%

64%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun

01

Oct

01

No

v 0

1

Mar

02

May 0

2

Sep

02

Dec

02

Mar

03

Jun

03

Jul 03

Sep

03

Dec

03

Mar

04

Jun

04

Sep

04

No

v 0

4

Feb

05

May 0

5

Sep

05

No

v 0

5

Mar

06

May 0

6

Sep

06

No

v 0

6

Mar

07

May 0

7

Sep

07

No

v 0

7

Mar

08

Sep

08

Jun

09

No

v 0

9

Jul 10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Oct

13

Mar

15

No

v 1

5

No

v 1

7


34%

46%

20%

CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS

DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


Phillip Hammond (satisfaction)

SATISFIED 34%

DISSATISFIED 46%

DON’T KNOW 20%

Net = -12

36%

45%

19%

SATISFIED 36%

DISSATISFIED 45%

DON’T KNOW 19%

Net = -11

March 2017 November 2017


66%

44%

67%

52%

45% 45%

34%

39%

44%42%

37%39%

36%37%

18%

31%

17%

24%

28%

38%

34%

52%

44%

56%

45%

42%

48%

52%

34%

41%

55%57%

48%46%

49%47%

42%

32%

28%

36%

40%

36%38%

28%27%

47%

43%44%

35%

40%

27%

39%

34%36%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ma

r-76

Ma

r-77

Ap

r-7

8

Jul-

80

Ma

r-82

Jun

-83

Ma

r-85

Ma

r-86

Ma

r-87

Ma

r-88

Ma

r-89

Ma

r-90

Ma

r-91

Ma

r-92

Ma

r-93

De

c-9

3

De

c-9

4

No

v-9

5

De

c-9

5

No

v-9

6

De

c-9

6

Jul-

97

Fe

b-9

8

Ma

r-98

Ma

r-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ma

r-00

Jul-

00

Se

p-0

0

No

v-0

0

Ma

r-01

Ap

r-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

Ma

r-04

No

v-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

De

c-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Ma

r-08

Ma

r-10

Jun

-10

Ma

r-11

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

No

v-1

6

Ma

r-17

No

v-1

7

% s

ati

sfi

ed

CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS

DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?


Satisfaction with Chancellors since 1976


Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne Hammond

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month


WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE CHANCELLOR, THE CONSERVATIVE’S

PHILLIP HAMMOND, OR LABOUR’S JOHN MCDONNELL?


More see Hammond than McDonnell as most capable

41

46

46

41

28

25

26

27

30

29

28

32

Osborne vs Balls (March 15)

Osborne vs McDonnell (Feb 16)

Hammond vs McDonnell (Nov 16)

Hammond vs McDonnell (Nov 17)

Hammond/Osborne McDonnell/Balls

Chancellor – although the gap has closed since last year


49%

19%

11%

21%

Hammond Gove Neither Don’t know

WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE CHANCELLOR, BETWEEN THESE TWO

CONSERVATIVE’S, PHILLIP HAMMOND, OR MICHAEL GOVE?


Hammond beats Gove as most capable chancellor


AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2017 BUDGET THIS WEEK/LAST WEEK.

FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD

THING OR A BAD THING….?


Public split on the budget being good or bad

41

35

38

36

For the country

For you personally

GOOD THING BAD THING

for the country and them personally


AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2017 BUDGET THIS WEEK/ LAST WEEK.




Little change on budget being good personally

35%

33%

35%

45%

43%

36%

39%

40%

38%

35%

Nov-17

Mar-17

Mar-16

Jul-15

Apr-14


For you personally

from March






And little change on the budget being good


For the country

41%

38%

30%

46%

48%

38%

42%

53%

44%

33%

Nov-17

Mar-17

Mar-16

Jul-15

Apr-14

for the country from March


34

68

26

41

36

42

32

42

49

40

36

27

36 35

11

16 15

25

20

29

3336

26

4245

24

34

21

26 25

4345

3533

35

47

69

39

47 4846

3537

45

4042

28

3234

23

29

2023

27

56 57

4648

52

65

37

45

25

54

33

4846

30

3841

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

% ‘

Go

od

’

For you personally For the countrySource: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor




Budget reaction - trends


Party Image


25%

31%

66%

37%

45%

54%

38%

64%

47%

64%

62%

22%

27%

28%

28%

32%

40%

43%

55%

58%

63%

73%

Keeps its promises

Has a good team of leaders

Concerned about people in real need in Britain

Extreme

Looks after the interests of people like me

Understands the problems facing Britain

Fit to govern

Different to the other parties

Out of date

Will promise anything to win votes

Divided

Conservative Labour

I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN

SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES.


Conservatives seen as more divided than Labour

WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE LABOUR PARTY/ THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY?

+11

-1

+11

-9

+5

-14

-13

-9

-38

-4

-3

Con party lead

Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 24th November – 28th November 2017

while gap closes on being fit to govern





Conservatives seen as more divided and less good

WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY?

26%

47%

37%

27%

38%

48%

53%

53%

45%

65%

52%

22%

27%

28%

28%

32%

40%

43%

55%

58%

63%

73%

Keeps its promises



Extreme



Fit to govern


Out of date


Divided

Nov-17 Oct-16Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 24th November – 28th November 2017

+21

-2

+13

+2

-10

-8

-6

+1

-9

-20

-4

Change since Oct 16

team of leaders compared with last year


23%

21%

38%

26%

33%

61%

41%

82%

59%

57%

56%

25%

31%

37%

38%

45%

47%

54%

62%

64%

64%

66%

Keeps its promises


Extreme

Fit to govern


Out of date


Divided




Nov-17 Oct-16




Labour seen as less divided and improve on being

WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE LABOUR PARTY?


+10

+7

+5

-20

+13

-14

+12

+12

-1

+10

+2

Change since Oct 16

fit to govern from last year





Gap between parties closing on being fit to govern

WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE LABOUR PARTY/CONSERVATIVE PARTY?


50%

43%

38% 38%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-16

No

v-1

7

Fit to govern (Conservative) Fit to govern (Labour)





Conservatives now seen as more divided than



49%

73%

55% 62%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-16

No

v-1

7

Divided (Conservative) Divided (Labour)

Labour





Conservatives have lost their lead as being seen as



44%

27%34%31%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-16

No

v-1

7

Has a good team of leaders (Conservative) Has a good team of leaders (Labour)

having a good team of leaders





Labour now lead as being the party that best

WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO THE LABOUR PARTY/CONSERVATIVE?


50%40%

50% 54%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-16

No

v-1

7

Understands the problems facing Britain (Conservative) Understands the problems facing Britain (Labour)

N.B. ‘Extreme’ was not asked in September 2013

understands the problems facing Britain





Labour still seen as being seen as extreme



28% 28%

22%

37%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-16

No

v-1

7

Extreme (Conservative) Extreme (Labour)






The public now see Labour as the party who looks



32% 32%

41%45%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Ap

r-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-16

No

v-1

7

Looks after the interests of people like me (Conservative) Looks after the interests of people like me (Labour)


after the interests of people like them

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Political Monitor November 2017