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The latest polling from Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor reveals the majority of Britons think a hung parliament is bad for the country, both in regard to the 2010 result and looking forward to 2015. But despite this opposition to coalitions, half expect to see another coalition in 2015; 51% believe it is very/fairly likely, with 45% saying it is very/fairly unlikely.
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Voting Intentions
3 Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those
“certain to vote”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -5
All giving a voting intention: 81%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
32%
37%
11%
11%
9%
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th -14h January 2014, all certain to vote = 606
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote: 56%
Conservative lead = -9
30%
39%
13%
11%
7%
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Oct-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Apr-0
4
Ju
l-04
Oct-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Apr-0
5
Ju
l-05
Oct-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Apr-0
6
Ju
l-06
Oct-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Apr-0
7
Ju
l-07
Oct-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Apr-0
8
Ju
l-08
Oct-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Apr-0
9
Ju
l-09
Oct-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Apr-1
0
Ju
l-10
Oct-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Apr-1
1
Ju
l-11
Oct-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Apr-1
2
Ju
l-12
Oct-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Apr-1
3
Ju
l-13
Oct-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
39%
Howard elected (Nov 03)
2005 General Election
Cameron elected (Dec 05)
Brown as PM (Jun 07)
13%
30%
2010 General Election
Base: c.1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Voting Intentions October ‘03 – January ‘14
(all certain to vote)
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
11%
Satisfaction with the Coalition
and Party Leaders
6
53
57
53
37
59
39
29
31
35
31
Net satisfaction
Swing from December
2013
-14 -0.5
-28 +0.5
-22 +1.5
-2 +1.5
-28 -1.5
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th - 14th January 2014. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and %
“dissatisfied”
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister
/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
David Cameron
The Government
Nick Clegg
Ed Miliband
% Satisfied
% Dissatisfied
Nigel Farage
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Au
g-0
7S
ep
-07
Oct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-0
8F
eb
-08
Ma
r-08
Ap
r-08
Ma
y-0
8Ju
n-0
8Ju
l-08
Au
g-0
8S
ep
-08
Oct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-0
9F
eb
-09
Ma
r-09
Ap
r-09
May-0
9Ju
n-0
9Ju
l-09
Au
g-0
9S
ep
-09
Oct-0
9N
ov-0
9D
ec-0
9Jan-1
0F
eb
-10
Ma
r-10
Ap
r-10
Ma
y-1
0Ju
n-1
0Ju
l-10
Au
g-1
0S
ep
-10
Oct-1
0N
ov-1
0D
ec-1
0Ja
n-1
1F
eb
-11
Ma
r-11
Ap
r-11
Ma
y-1
1Ju
n-1
1Jul-1
1A
ug
-11
Se
p-1
1O
ct-1
1N
ov-1
1D
ec-1
1Ja
n-1
2F
eb
-12
Mar-1
2A
pr-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
n-1
2Ju
l-12
Au
g-1
2S
ep
-12
Oct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-1
2Ja
n-1
3F
eb
-13
Ma
r-13
Ap
r-13
Ma
y-1
3Ju
n-1
3Ju
l-13
Au
g-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-1
4
29%
% s
ati
sfi
ed
Cameron
Clegg
Campbell
Clegg elected (Jan 08)
General Election
39%
Miliband 31%
Brown
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ?
Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – January ‘14
Farage
35%
8
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
THATCHER
BLAIR MAJOR
BROWN
CAMERON
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
9
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
January 2006 – January 2014 January 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -14
39%
53%
8%
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 261 Conservative supporters 18+, 11th -14th January 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
David Cameron
(satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative
Party/ as Prime Minister?
79%
16%
5% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +63 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
January 2006 – January 2014 January 2014
11
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1994 – 2014)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2014)
HOWARD
(2003-2005)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Net
sati
sfa
cti
on
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ed Miliband (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th-14th January 2014
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – January 2014 January 2014
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
31%
53%
16%
Net = -22
13
50%
40%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Base: 326 Labour supporters 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
Ed Miliband
(satisfaction among Labour supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
January 2014
Net = +10
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
October 2010 – January 2014
14 Nick Clegg (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th-14th January 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
January 2008 – January 2014 January 2014
29%
57%
14%
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -28
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Base: 102 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 11th-14th January 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
January 2014
55% 35%
10% Satisfied
Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = +20
Nick Clegg
(satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/
as Deputy Prime Minister?
January 2008 – January 2014
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
16
35%
37%
27%
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nigel Farage is doing his job as leader of UKIP, the UK
Independence Party?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 90 UKIP supporters, 11th-14th January 2014. N.B. small base size indicative only
All
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied 94%
5% 1%
UKIP supporters
Satisfied Don’t know
Dissatisfied
Net = -2 Net = +89
The economy
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ju
l-0
4O
ct-
04
Ja
n-0
5A
pr-
05
Ju
l-0
5O
ct-
05
Ja
n-0
6A
pr-
06
Ju
l-0
6O
ct-
06
Ja
n-0
7A
pr-
07
Ju
l-0
7O
ct-
07
Ja
n-0
8A
pr-
08
Ju
l-0
8O
ct-
08
Ja
n-0
9A
pr-
09
Ju
l-0
9O
ct-
09
Ja
n-1
0A
pr-
10
Ju
l-1
0O
ct-
10
Ja
n-1
1A
pr-
11
Ju
l-1
1O
ct-
11
Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Ju
l-1
2O
ct-
12
Ja
n-1
3A
pr-
13
Ju
l-1
3O
ct-
13
Ja
n-1
4
Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
Improve
Stay the same Get worse Improve
Don’t know
Get worse
Stay the same
January 2014
EOI = +19
45%
26%
26%
4%
19
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Ap
r-9
7Ju
l-9
7O
ct-
97
Ja
n-9
8A
pr-
98
Ju
l-9
8O
ct-
98
Ja
n-9
9A
pr-
99
Ju
l-9
9O
ct-
99
Ja
n-0
0A
pr-
00
Ju
l-0
0O
ct-
00
Ja
n-0
1A
pr-
01
Ju
l-0
1O
ct-
01
Ja
n-0
2A
pr-
02
Ju
l-0
2O
ct-
02
Ja
n-0
3A
pr-
03
Ju
l-0
3O
ct-
03
Ja
n-0
4A
pr-
04
Ju
l-0
4O
ct-
04
Ja
n-0
5A
pr-
05
Ju
l-0
5O
ct-
05
Ja
n-0
6A
pr-
06
Ju
l-0
6O
ct-
06
Ja
n-0
7A
pr-
07
Ju
l-07
Oct-
07
Ja
n-0
8A
pr-
08
Ju
l-08
Oct-
08
Ja
n-0
9A
pr-
09
Ju
l-09
Oct-
09
Ja
n-1
0A
pr-
10
Ju
l-10
Oct-
10
Ja
n-1
1A
pr-
11
Ju
l-1
1O
ct-
11
Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12
Ju
l-1
2O
ct-
12
Ja
n-1
3A
pr-
13
Ju
l-1
3O
ct-
13
Ja
n-1
4
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse
over the next 12 months?
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
+28
-46
-56 -48
+23
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Ind
ex
(g
et
be
tte
r m
inu
s g
et
wo
rse)
-64
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+19
Coalition MOT
21 The coalition: good or bad thing?
As you will know, the general election on May 6th 2010 resulted in a hung parliament where no party had an overall
majority. Do you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no party achieved an overall majority?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
January 2014 April 2011 November 2010 May 2010
40%
52%
8%
38%
55%
7%
34%
58%
8%
32%
60%
8%
Bad thing Good thing Don’t know
22 Health of the Coalition
Do you think that the Coalition government is or is not…
29 49
66 65 62
33 49
63 61
50
52 38
19
34 40
54 48 42
63 43
26 28 30
59 42
28 32
42
40 55
75
55 53
39 45 51
% Is not % Is
…providing stable government?
…working as a united team?
…likely to last until 2015
…dealing with the economic
crisis effectively?
May 2010*
April 2011 July 2012
May 2013 July 2012
May 2010*
April 2011 July 2012
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
* When asked in May 2010, the wording was ‘Do you think the new government will or will not…’
May 2013
May 2013
January 2014
May 2010*
April 2011 July 2012
May 2013 January 2014
January 2014
January 2014
23 Is there appetite for another hung parliament?
Thinking about the next general election, do you think it will be a good thing or a bad thing for the country if
no party achieves an overall majority?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
26%
65%
9%
Bad thing
Good thing
Don’t know
Conservative Labour LibDem UKIP
Good thing % 21 21 55 18
24 What about the perceived likelihood of another
coalition?
And regardless of your personal views of coalitions how likely or unlikely do you think it is that there will be
another coalition government after the next general election.
Don’t know
14%
37% 29%
16%
4%
45%
51% Very unlikely
Very likely
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,035 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th January 2014
Conservative Labour LibDem UKIP
Likely % 58 42 66 48
25 Who is each party’s supporters’ favoured
coalition partner?
You said that you would vote for/be inclined to support the Conservatives/Labour/Liberal Democrats/UKIP if there were a general election tomorrow.
Suppose that no party has an overall majority after the election. How strongly would you support or oppose the Conservatives/Labour/Liberal
Democrats/UKIP forming a coalition government with …INSERT if they had enough seats between them for a majority?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 261 Conservative, 326 Labour, 102 Liberal Democrat and 90 UKIP supporters, all British adults 18+,
11th – 14th January 2014
Conservative supporters
Labour supporters
Liberal Democrat
supporters
44
17
21
17
21
35
29
45
40
70
62
63
65
53
64
47
...UKIP
...Liberal Democrats
...Liberal Democrats
…Green Party
…Conservatives
…Labour
% Oppose % Support Form a coalition with the…
UKIP supporters …Conservatives
…Labour
