AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

May 5, 2015

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Pro-ISIS groups are expanding operations into eastern Yemen, where AQAP has traditionally had a dominant presence.

2. IRGC Naval forces detained the Maersk Tigris in the Strait of Hormuz on April 28 based on a lawsuit filed by Iranian oil company Pars Talaei against Danish shipping group Maersk.

3. Rebel violence is increasing in northern Mali as Tuareg rebels attacked a town near the Mauritanian border.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalInternational actors and warring Yemeni factions continued to call for political dialogue but remained unable to agree on

preconditions for talks to begin. Separately, U.S. officials reported that Iranian ships allegedly carrying weapons to resupply the

al Houthi movement in Yemen turned away from the Gulf of Aden on April 24. Iran continued to try to deliver supplies to Yemen,

as an Iranian plane violated the Saudi-implemented no-fly zone over Yemen on April 28, causing Saudi aircraft to bomb the

runway of Sana’a airport to prevent the Iranian plane from landing.

Outlook: It is likely that Iran will continue to try to resupply the al Houthi movement in Yemen despite U.N. sanctions. It is

unlikely that all actors involved in the Yemen conflict will agree on preconditions for political dialogue in the near future.

SecurityAl Houthi expansion in Yemen appears to have stalled. The al Houthis continued aggressive campaigns in Aden city and Ma’rib

but did not make any significant territorial gains. Anti-al Houthi fighters continued to attack al Houthi-controlled areas in Taiz,

Shabwah, al Dhaleh, Abyan, and Ibb governorates but have not impeded the al Houthis’ ability to operate in southern Yemen.

Separately, al Houthi militants attacked Saudi border guards in Najran, Saudi Arabia, on April 30 killing three soldiers.

Outlook: Popular resistance will continue to attack the al Houthis across Yemen, but will likely remain largely ineffective. The

success of the al Houthi campaign in Ma’rib could be a major inflection point in the Yemen conflict in coming weeks.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)Pro-ISIS accounts released a video depicting the execution of 14 Yemeni soldiers. Separately, ISIS Wilayat Hadramawt claimed

credit for a complex attack in Tarim, Hadramawt, the first reported pro-ISIS activity in Hadramawt. Ansar al Sharia maintained

distance from ISIS attacks and released a statement denying responsibility for the attack in Tarim. Ansar al Sharia continues to

maintain control of territory around al Mukalla, Hadramawt.

Outlook: ISIS supporters have continued to expand their areas of operation in Yemen. AQAP will continue to control and expand its influence over al Mukalla.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

1) 25 APR-1 MAY: Al Houthis clashed with popular resistance forces in Sirwah, Ma’rib.2) 30 APR: Al Houthis attacked Saudi Border Guards in Najran, Saudi Arabia.3) 25 APR-1 May: Al Houthis clashed with popular resistance forces in Taiz city, Taiz.4) 30 APR: Pro-ISIS militants attacked military in Tarim, Hadramawt.5) 25-27 APR: Saudi airstrikes targeted al Houthis throughout Yemen.

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Saudi-airstrike data ends

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalKenya has stepped back from its previous position on closing the Dadaab refugee camps. The head of Kenya’s Refugee Affairs

Commission stated on April 29 that while Kenya would still attempt to close the camps, it would not forcibly repatriate its

inhabitants. This is a shift from the government’s previous statements, which held that if the UN High Commissioner for

Refugees (UNHCR) did not close the camp, Kenya would.

Outlook: Relenting on the Dadaab camps will help Kenya avoid alienating Somali refugees, who otherwise may turn to

supporting al Shabaab.

Security SNA and AMISOM forces increased pressure on al Shabaab by capturing two villages in Bakool region from the group. Al

Shabaab’s control of the countryside in southern Somalia has given them a launching pad from which to carry out attacks

throughout Somalia. Separately, a mass grave with at least 11 bodies was discovered in the vicinity of Wajir, North Eastern

Province, Kenya. The discovery raised the fear of extra-judicial killings targeting terror suspects among Kenya’s Somali and

Muslim minorities.

Outlook: If extra-judicial killings are being carried out, it could alienate Kenya’s Somali and Muslim minorities, which would play

into al Shabaab’s narrative of combating Kenyan oppression.

Al ShabaabKenya’s offer of amnesty to al Shabaab members who surrender has resulted in limited defections from the group. Kenyan

officials revealed on April 25 that six militants had surrendered in Mombasa, Coast Province, and on April 30 that a militant had

surrendered in Kirinyaga county, Central Province. A similar amnesty offer was previously implemented by the Somali

government and has resulted in some high-level defections.

Outlook: A continued offer of amnesty from the Kenyan government could prove effective in producing defections from Kenyan

al Shabaab members as well as help foster positive relations between the Kenyan government and Muslim and Somali

communities in Kenya.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

1) 25-26 APR: Al Shabaab assassinated four government officials in separate attacks in Mogadishu.2) 28 APR: Al Shabaab detonated an IED targeting a former UN employee in Galkayo, Mudug region.3) 29 APR: SNA and AMISOM forces captured the villages of Lagaley and Ceelahelay in Bakool region.4) 30 APR: Suspected al Shabaab militants detonated two IEDs in Janale, Lower Shabelle region.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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ASSESSMENT:

AQIMAbu Obeida al Annabi, head of AQIM’s council of dignitaries, delivered a video message to Tunisian fighters about the

difference between the jihadists and the “deceitful” secularists. In the video, al Annabi states that the secularists in the

government ended the Tunisian revolution before it could succeed. The video urges Tunisians to wage Jihad and to fight their

government.

Outlook: AQIM continues to show its presence, even if it is only through social media. AQIM could be attempting to recruit

fighters to its ranks from the Tunisian population.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Tunisian security forces continue to conduct interdiction operations, particularly in the mountainous region of Kasserine near the

Algerian border. Special security units discovered and cleared 11 landmines from Mount Salloum, the site of last week’s clashes

between the army and militants.

Outlook: Although Tunisia has increased its counter-terrorism operations since the Bardo Museum attack, militant activity will

likely continue to target Tunisian security forces.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)Various Malian militant organizations continue to fight security forces and each other. Tuareg rebels attacked the towns of Lere,

western Mali, and Goundam, central northern Mali. Pro-government organizations GATIA and the MAA attacked the rebel-held

town of Menaka, eastern Mali, and regained control from the rebels.

Outlook: The situation in northern Mali continues to deteriorate despite regional and international efforts to have all rebel

factions sign a peace and reconciliation agreement by May 15.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 25 APR: Tunisian army units repulsed a terrorist attack in Mount Mghilla, Kasserine, western Tunisia.2) 28 APR: Algerian army forces killed six terrorists belonging to AQIM’s al NourBrigade, in Tizi Ouzou, northern Algeria.3) 29 APR: Tunisian security units found and cleared 11 landmines in Mount Salloum, Kasserine, western Tunisia.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST AFRICA

1) 27 APR: GATIA and MAA fighters seized the town of Menaka, eastern Mali, from Tuareg rebels. 2) 29 APR: Rebels attacked the town of Lere, near the Mauritanian border, killing nine soldiers.

3) 29 APR: Rebels attacked the town of Goundam, north central Mali, killing two soldiers and a civilian.4) 30 APR: A minibus traveling near Gao triggered a landmine, which left three civilians dead and 28 others wounded.

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ASSESSMENT:

Regional Developments and Diplomacy

Iranian naval forces seized Marshall Islands-flagged cargo ship Maersk Tigris in the Strait of Hormuz on April 28. Iran’s Port and

Maritime Organization later released a statement that the detention of the Maersk Tigris was based on a lawsuit filed last year

against Danish shipping organization Maersk by a private Iranian oil production company named Pars Talaei. Meanwhile,

Iranian officials promoted Iranian naval activity in the Gulf of Aden as that of a safekeeping force, stressing the Navy’s routine

and historic presence in the region after an Iranian convoy of ships purportedly carrying arms for the al Houthis altered its

course following the arrival of the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group in the Gulf of Aden.

Outlook: The Iranian Navy will continue to highlight its presence as a safe-keeping force in the Gulf of Aden.

Nuclear Talks

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on the sidelines of the NPT

Review Conference in New York. The two agreed that Iran and the P5+1 would continue to work on drafting the text for a final

nuclear agreement. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, meanwhile, stated that the key to solving Iran’s economic

problems is not a nuclear deal; rather, the solution requires strengthening the “backbone of the resistance economy,” through

increased manufacturing and production. President Hassan Rouhani, however, stressed the need for foreign investment in

order for Iran’s economy to grow and prosper. Rouhani said, “without the presence of foreign capital and technology” Iran will

have difficulty in finishing large-scale projects that are necessary for economic growth and prosperity.

Outlook: The Supreme Leader will continue to voice his mistrust of the U.S., while reinforcing the “resistance economy”

strategy to downplay Iran’s need for a nuclear deal.

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IRAN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

1119 APR – 24 APR 2015

APR 26: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei criticized American police forces during the 20th General

Congress of Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) Commanders and Staff.

APR 26: SCNS Secretary Ali Shamkhani called for a “review [of] the strategies” of the LEF.

APR 27: IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari called on Iranian officials to adopt a tougher

stance against Saudi Arabia regarding its airstrikes in Yemen.

APR 27: The Iranian nuclear negotiating team arrived in New York City for the NPT Review Conference.

APR 28: President Hassan Rouhani expressed confidence that sanctions would soon be removed.

APR 28: SCNS Secretary Ali Shamkhani characterized Iranian maritime presence in the Gulf of Aden as

routine and “based on a timetable.”

APR 28: IRGC Qods Forces Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani addressed an assembly of

Parliamentarians on regional developments.

APR 29: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stressed that the solution to Iran’s economic problems lies

in the implementation of the ‘resistance economy,’ not in the nuclear negotiations.

APR 29: Iran’s Port and Maritime Organization released a statement indicating that the detention of the

Maersk Tigris was based on a lawsuit filed by Iranian oil production company Pars Talaei against

Danish shipping group Maersk.

APR 29: Artesh Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari highlights Iranian naval presence in the

Gulf of Aden is “not a new issue.”

APR 30: Iranian negotiators hold talks regarding the nuclear negotiations with EU representatives on the

sidelines of the NPT Review Conference.

MAY 01: President Hassan Rouhani stressed the need for foreign investment.

26 APR – 01 MAY

ACRONYMS

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Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State (IS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org(202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.

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