AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT November 18, 2015

2

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1

3

1. Senior Iranian officials censured President Hassan Rouhani for criticizing the IRGC’s arrests of individuals suspected of promoting foreign influence, indicating that disagreements over how to block foreign influence will continue alongside greater crackdowns.

2. The Somali parliament voted to remove Kenyan military forces from the country in the midst of rising Kenyan-Somali tensions, compromising security forces’ ability to coordinate against al Shabaab.

3. Malian forces under Operation Seno conducted successful clearing operations in central Mali, with particular success against the Macina Liberation Front, associated with the AQIM-affiliated Ansar al Din.

2

ASSESSMENT:

3

al Qaeda NetworkThe Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham's (ISIS) claim of responsibility for the Paris attacks directly challenges al Qaeda. Al Qaeda's strategy has been to use terrorist attacks against the West to force Western nations to retreat from the Muslim-majority world and had been the dominating group in pursuing this tactic. ISIS demonstrated that it may have built an external operations capability, if the Paris attack was directed by ISIS leadership, that competes with al Qaeda's external operations attack node, especially the one in Yemen under al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Separately, there is a growing, public media war between AQAP and ISIS in which the groups have both released direct critiques of the other.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will likely attempt to respond to the Paris attacks by proving it still maintains the capability to conduct spectacular attacks abroad, possibly mobilizing the threat node based in Yemen in conjunction with fighters or support from groups in North Africa or Syria.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesAnsar al Islam, the al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) affiliate in Bangladesh, released a statement approving the alleged “prudent” decision taken by publishers to avoid publishing content that opposes Islamic shari’a. The statement also stressed that the group would not target the writers and publishers who have decided to avoid writing against shari’a. AQIS affiliates have killed 6 writers and publishers in Bangladesh, since February, 2015.

The Pakistani military continued its ground and air operations in the Shawal Valley area of North Waziristan. The Pakistani Air Force killed at least 22 militants during airstrikes in Shawal Valley on November 14, 2015. Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistani military’s offensive in North Waziristan, is in its final phase.

Outlook: The Pakistani military will continue Operation Zarb-e-Azb to eliminate militancy in the tribal areas of North Waziristan.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

4

PoliticalAl Houthi grievances are threatening the UN-led peace talks expected to take place in Geneva this month. Al Houthi leaders accused the UN special envoy of bias toward the Saudi-led coalition, and the al Houthis and their allies have not named delegates for the talks. The coalition and President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi are publically supporting the negotiations, but fighting between al Houthi-Saleh militias and coalition-backed forces continues on the ground.

Outlook: Stakeholders will heed international pressure and remain committed to a UN-led dialogue, but fighting will continue as combatants attempt to consolidate territorial gains.

SecurityFighting escalated in Taiz governorate following a weeklong buildup of coalition-backed troops and military equipment. Anti-al Houthi fighters clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in western Taiz city, and al Houthi-Saleh militias buttressed their defenses at the city’s southern access points. The coalition reinforced positions along the Taiz-Lahij border following al Houthi-Saleh incursions last week. Coalition airstrikes targeted al Houthi-Saleh positions throughout Taiz and surrounding governorates.

Outlook: Fighting will continue along existing frontlines in Taiz, al Dhaleh, al Bayda, and Ma’rib governorates.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP and ISIS continue to expand behind the conflict’s frontlines. ISIS Wilayat Sana’a operated outside of its usual territory, attacking an al Houthi-linked mosque in Mahwit governorate, west of Sana’a, and claiming credit for a bombing at a university in Ibb. ISIS Wilayat Hadramawt ambushed a military convoy in Hadramawt governorate in eastern Yemen. AQAP militants conducted several operations in Hadramawt and exchanged fire with al Houthi forces in Taiz city.

Outlook: AQAP and ISIS in Yemen will continue to take advantage of the security vacuum while combatants remain preoccupied with the pro- and anti-al Houthi fight.

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

5

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

5

1) 11 NOV: Popular resistance forces ambushed al Houthi-Saleh fighters near Damt city, al Dhaleh governorate.2) 13 NOV: ISIS Wilayat Sana’a detonated an IED at an al Houthi-linked mosque in Mahwit governorate. 3) 14 NOV: Emirati special forces arrived in Aden city to secure the presidential palace for President Hadi’s return.4) 15 NOV: ISIS Wilayat Hadramawt ambushed a military patrol in Hadramawt governorate.

1

3

2 4

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalSomalia’s parliament voted in favor of a motion to remove Kenyan military forces from the country in response to strained Somali-Kenyan relations. Both the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and Interim Jubbaland Administration (IJA) accused Kenya’s construction of a border wall of crossing into Somali territory. Reports of Kenyan military members’ involvement in al Shabaab’s Kismayo-based smuggling operations also increased tensions. Outlook: Differences in Somali and Kenyan long-term objectives will drive tensions, which will affect joint security operations.

SecuritySomali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces are increasing security in the capital, Mogadishu, in response to a number of targeted killings by al Shabaab. Galmudug State is also attempting to clear al Shabaab from villages surrounding Harardhere, the regional capital of Mudug. This clearing operation is likely partially motivated by the threat of Ahlu Sunna wa al Jama’a (ASJW), a paramilitary organization that challenges the legitimacy of the federally-sanctioned Galmudug State. ASWJ officially declared war on Galmudug State weeks ago and will likely attempt to seize settlements if it senses that the administration's security resources are spread too thin.

Outlook: Security operations will increase in Mogadishu as targeted killings of government workers continue.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab continued to attack high-profile targets with the attempted assassination of the Southwest State’s governor. Additionally, a recent attack on an IJA training camp highlights al Shabaab’s ability to strike vulnerable targets. Clashes between pro-Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) militants and al Shabaab continued throughout the Middle Jubba region. Reports of higher ranking pro-ISIS faction members killed in clashes indicate that ISIS elements within Somalia are organized enough to maintain a hierarchy, which may be a sign that the pro-ISIS movement in Somalia is gaining traction.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely continue targeted killings of government employees throughout Somalia.

6

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

1

3

2

4

7

1) 11 NOV: Al Shabaab attacked the Southwest State governor’s convoy twice near Mogadishu, Banadir region. 2) 13 NOV: Al Shabaab captured Fiidow town, Middle Shabelle region.3) 13 NOV: Al Shabaab attacked IJA-manned training camp near Kismayo, Lower Jubba region.4) 11 – 15 NOV: Al Shabaab clashed with pro-ISIS factions in Bu’ale and Saakow, Middle Jubba region.

ASSESSMENT:

8

PoliticalRepresentatives from both the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) and the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) have quietly resumed talks on the proposal for a Libyan national unity government in Tunis, but the leadership from each parliament continues to refuse a vote on the proposal for unclear reasons.

Outlook: The HoR and GNC blocs will continue to push for negotiations, despite delays from the leadership.

SecurityThe United States Air Force (USAF) conducted airstrikes on Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) Wilayat Barqa positions in Derna. The strikes targeted and reportedly killed Abu Nabil al Anbari, a senior core ISIS leader who relocated to Libya in mid-2015. The Libyan National Army (LNA) pushed into Bu’atni, Benghazi, and reclaimed three former Saiqa bases from ISIS Wilayat Barqa control, continuing the LNA’s recent momentum in eastern Benghazi.

Outlook: The LNA will operationalize the seized bases and then begin operations to clear the neighboring Benghazi district of Laithi.

Ansar al Sharia and ISIS in LibyaISIS Wilayat Tarablus forces detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) at a Libya Dawn-affiliated Misratan checkpoint in Khoms, a coastal town to the east of Tripoli, marking the first ISIS attack on a Misratan position since May 2015.

The Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (MSCD) launched a full-scale invasion of ISIS Wilayat Barqa territory in Fata’ih, Derna. The operation, which appears to be an attempt to excise ISIS Barqa influence in eastern Libya, has resulted in large casualties on both sides.

Outlook: The MSCD, with tacit support from the Libyan National Army, will continue its push to clear Fata’ih of insurgent elements.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

1

32 4

9

1) 10 NOV: LNA and Saiqa forces reclaimed bases from ISIS Wilayat Barqa militants in Bu’atni, Benghazi.2) 11 NOV: ISIS Wilayat Tarablus detonated a VBIED at a Misratan checkpoint near Khoms, Libya.3) 14 NOV: USAF airstrike killed an ISIS leader in Derna, Libya.4) 15 NOV: MSCD units began a new operation to clear Fata’ih of ISIS Wilayat Barqa forces near Derna, Libya.

ASSESSMENT:

10

AQIM AQIM reasserted its presence in Mali’s Timbuktu region by distributing leaflets threatening the Malian armed forces. However, national security forces continue to disrupt terrorist operations. Algerian forces intercepted militants with an arms cache attempting to cross into Mali and subsequently increased border security forces. Tunisian forces arrested Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) members planning to attack tourist attractions in Sousse, as well as members of an ISIS media wing in Tunis.

Outlook: AQIM will continue its efforts in north Mali to maintain control despite on-going peace talks, but increased Algerian security along the Mali and Niger borders will interfere with the movement of its militants and weapons.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)The Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade, an AQIM-linked group, continued its propaganda and released a video showing the execution of a shepherd accused of spying. A group beheaded another shepherd in Jebel Mghila. Reports from one month ago traced Uqba Ibn Nafa’a to Jebel Mghila, but Uqba Ibn Nafa’a denied responsibility for the most recent beheading. Tunisian forces began an operation in the region, killing five of the responsible militants, but similar operations have proved ineffective in the past.

Outlook: The unidentified militant group will retreat further into the mountains. Uqba Ibn Nafa’a may limit its operations in response to the increased presence of Tunisian military forces.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA), a component of al Murabitoun, clashed with the Coordination of the Movement of Azawad (CMA), an anti-regime group that is currently cooperating with the Malian government in exchange for increased representation. Al Murabitoun opposes any cooperation with French, Malian, or UN security forces. Mali’s Operation Seno continues to target Ansar al Din-affiliate Macina Liberation Front (MLF) in central Mali.  Outlook: Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, and affiliates will continue to target UN, French, and Malian security forces, as well as those who cooperate with these forces, in order to undermine stability and the implementation of the peace agreement.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

11

MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

3

2

141) 12 NOV: ANP

cleared mines in Constantine, Batna and Jijel, Algeria.2) 13 NOV: ANP arrested terrorists crossing into Mali and seized an arms cache near Ain Guezzam.3) 13, 15 NOV: Terrorists beheaded a shepherd in Jebel Mghila and clashed with Tunisian military forces.4) 16 NOV: Tunisian forces arrested members of Jund al Khilafah, an ISIS affiliate, in Tunis.

12

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA1) 10 NOV: Nigerien security forces arrested six smugglers and seized explosives, ammunition, and drugs in Agadez region, central Niger. 2) 14 NOV: Malian forces arrested a senior member of MLF in Mopti region, central Mali. 3) 14 NOV: CMA and MUJWA clashed near Menaka, Gao region, Mali.4) 15 NOV: MLF militants killed a Malian soldier in Djenne, Mopti region, Mali.

4

2

31

ASSESSMENT:

13

Domestic PoliticsSenior Iranian leaders continued to censure President Hassan Rouhani for criticizing the IRGC’s arrests of individuals suspected of promoting foreign influence. Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Hojjat ol Eslam Kazem Sedighi accused Rouhani of reacting “bitingly” and “angrily” to the IRGC’s arrests on November 13; Sedighi also called considerations regarding foreign influence “the center of decision-making” in Tehran and identified universities as a tool for blocking such influence. IRGC Major General Gholam Ali Rashid divided Iranians who are “seeking to embellish America’s despicable image” into two categories: non-traitorous but “simple-minded” individuals who are “among some officials” on one hand, and “traitorous” individuals on the other. Rashid called for Iranians to “stand up” against both.

Outlook: Domestic disagreements over how to identify and block foreign influence will continue along with greater crackdowns.

Regional Developments and DiplomacyPresident Hassan Rouhani called counterterrorism Iran’s “first priority” in Syria during an interview on November 12 and stated that the Syrian crisis is “not a question about an individual,” referring to Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani emphasized on November 11 and 16 that Iran and Russia have “no difference in opinion” about Assad’s fate in Syria and that Iran will support the Syrian people’s political decisions, “whatever it may be.” Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Hojjat ol Eslam Kazem Sedighi, meanwhile, claimed that Assad’s “preservation” has been one of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s red lines, and Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated that Iran opposed the inclusion of a clause in the Syria peace talks’ final statement that called for Assad’s removal. The Foreign Ministry announced on November 13 that Abdollahian will lead the Iranian delegation at the next round of Syria peace talks.

Outlook: Iran’s preference for Assad to remain as president is unlikely to prevent its participation in regional negotiations or sever its cooperation with Russia in Syria.

IRAN

14

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

NOV 11: Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani claimed that Saudi Arabia financed the October 16 shooting in Dezful, Khuzestan province.

NOV 12: IRGC Major General Gholam Ali Rashid called for Iranian officials to confront individuals who “are seeking to embellish America’s despicable image.”

NOV 12: President Hassan Rouhani referred to the P5+1 nuclear deal as a potential starting point for restoring diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran but claimed that the U.S. must apologize first.

NOV 12: Four Iranians were killed in the vicinity of Aleppo, Syria.NOV 13: The Foreign Ministry announced that Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian would lead the Iranian

delegation at the next round of the Vienna peace talks on Syria.NOV 13: Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Hojjat ol Eslam Kazem Sedighi criticized President Hassan Rouhani for reacting

“bitingly” and “angrily” to the IRGC’s recent arrests of individuals suspected of promoting foreign influence.NOV 14: Armed Forces General Staff Headquarters Basij Affairs and Defense Culture Deputy Brigadier General Massoud

Jazayeri condemned the November 13 Paris terrorist attacks but claimed that the French “paid the penalty for their government’s support for ISIS.”

NOV 14: President Hassan Rouhani cancelled his trip to France and Italy after the Paris attacks and emphasized the need for French-Iranian cooperation in counterterrorism.

NOV 15: An unnamed IRGC source denied reports claiming that IRGC Qods Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani was killed in Aleppo, Syria, on November 13.

NOV 15: Abdollahian stated that Iran opposed the inclusion of a clause in the Syria peace talks’ final statement calling for Assad’s removal.

NOV 16: Artesh Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan identified a “red line” 40 kilometers from Iran’s borders and stated that ISIS will face a “crushing response” if it violates that line.

10 – 16 NOV

15

ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

16

AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analyst emily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569