AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT May 19, 2015

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Iranian officials said an Iranian cargo ship, which left from Bandar Abbas, Iran, for al Hudaydah, Yemen, and is escorted by the Artesh Navy’s 34th Fleet, will refuse inspections by Saudi or American officials.

2. Political progress was not made during a Yemen ceasefire for humanitarian aid distribution.3. Al Qaeda-linked al Murabitoun, operating in the Sahel, may have split into ISIS and al Qaeda factions.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda senior leadership has been notably silent on the death of recent members, including individuals like Ahmed Farouq who was reported to be the second-in-command of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent. Separately, al Qaeda’s Sahelian and Maghrebian network may be fracturing as there are reports of some factions pledging allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). Such fractures probably do not affect the level of the overall threat from the global jihadist movement to the West, which remains as both ISIS and al Qaeda encourage low-level attacks in the West. Al Qaeda will probably continue to try to emphasize the differences between ISIS’s and al Qaeda’s strategies.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to prioritize its fight in Syria, but will also take advantage of recent gains in Yemen. It is not clear how it will respond to the growth of ISIS cells in the Maghreb and Sahel. Al Qaeda will also continue to try to inspire low-scale attacks in the West.

 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesAn attack on a bus in Karachi killed at least 43 Ismaili Shia civilians on May 13. The attack has been claimed by ISIS Wilayat Khorasan and also the TTP splinter, Jundullah, although Jundullah has made previous claims for attacks later attributed to other groups. The Karachi bus attack is the first mass-casualty ISIS-claimed attack in the Pakistani port city. A Jundullah leader claimed that the group had received funding from ISIS and was planning additional attacks. Seperately, the Pakistani military (PakMil) launched a new offensive to push the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from its stronghold in the northwestern region of North Waziristan. The TTP’s leadership remains under pressure as U.S. and Pakistani airstrikes target TTP leaders on both sides of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border.

Outlook: PakMil operations, drone strikes continue in North/South Waziristan, Khyber/Orakzai Agencies, and across Afghan border.

AL QAEDA

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PoliticalSaudi Arabia and the al Houthi movement agreed to a five-day ceasefire that began on May 12 and ended May 17. The ceasefire held despite reported violations from both the al Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia. Separately, Iran announced that it would send a cargo ship carrying humanitarian relief to Yemen, but would not submit to inspections by Saudi-led coalition forces. The ship has increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the U.S.

Outlook: It is unlikely that another ceasefire will be implemented in the near future. The humanitarian situation in Yemen will continue to degrade, which will in turn increase international pressure on Saudi Arabia to end airstrikes in Yemen.

SecuritySaudi Arabia has continued to train Yemeni troops for redeployment against the al Houthis, with a reported 60 Saudi-trained Yemenis arriving in Mudia, Abyan, on May 9. Separately, Saudi Arabia began massing military units in Najran, Saudi Arabia, near the Yemeni-Saudi Arabian border. Al Houthi militants fired mortars at Saudi Arabian targets in Jizan and Najran on May 13 and 15. Al Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have increased in frequency despite the implementation of the humanitarian ceasefire.

Outlook: Continued attacks by al Houthi militants targeting Saudi Arabia with artillery fire will further escalate tensions between Saudi Arabia and the al Houthi movement.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)Suspected U.S. airstrikes killed three AQAP militants in al Said, Shabwah, on May 9, and AQAP spiritual leader Mamoun Hatem in al Mukalla, Shabwah, on May 11. Separately, AQAP began surrendering direct control of government infrastructure in al Mukalla to the Hadhrami People’s Council (HPC), a pro-AQAP tribal group, on May 10. AQAP also banned the sale of qat in al Mukalla on May 14, which may increase anti-AQAP sentiments in the region.

Outlook: AQAP has continued to expand its influence in eastern Yemen through partnership with local actors.

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN1) 11-15 MAY: Al Houthi militants fired mortars at Saudi targets in Jizan and Najran, Saudi Arabia.2) 11 MAY: Suspected U.S. airstrike killed AQAP spiritual leader Mamoun Hatem.3) 09 MAY: Saudi-trained Yemeni soldiers deployed in Mudia city, Abyan.4) 09-15 MAY: Popular resistance fighters battled al Houthi militants for control of Taiz city, Taiz.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalTensions between Puntland and the Somali Federal Government appear to be increasing. Puntland voiced its objections to the Somali Federal Government’s selection of the new electoral, boundaries, and judicial service commissions. Puntland holds that the commissions will not have authority over Puntland, since the federal government did not consult Puntland in their selection. The various commissions will all play a role in achieving the Vision 2016 goals, which the Somali Federal Government and the regional administrations all had promised to cooperate to achieve.

Outlook: While previous agreements between the Somali Federal Government and regional administrations have shown some promise, Somalia’s federalization process will continue to be contentious.

Security Puntland’s cabinet announced that it would not allow AMISOM forces to conduct anti-al Shabaab operations in Puntland despite a recent increase in al Shabaab activity in Puntland. The cabinet stated its confidence in Puntland’s security forces to defeat al Shabaab, although they have recently struggled to prevent attacks.

Outlook: Puntland’s security forces will continue to struggle to combat al Shabaab without AMISOM’s assistance, which could result in additional attacks in northern Somalia.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab militants captured two towns from SNA forces in Lower Shabelle region. The group has been under pressure from security forces and losing control of territory in southern Somalia, but appears able to conduct operations against the SNA. Separately, the group released a video on May 9, featuring a fighter identified as the suicide bomber in the July 2010 attack in Kampala, Uganda. The video warned AMISOM contributors Burundi and Kenya that they would be targeted in future attacks.

Outlook: Al Shabaab still challenges the capabilities of the SNA and maintains an effective fighting force, which the SNA will likely need AMISOM support in defeating, even though al Shabaab has suffered recent territorial losses.

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GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 11 MAY: Al Shabaab attacked Ethiopian AMISOM forces in Qanax Dheere, Bay region.2) 12 MAY: Suspected al Shabaab militants attacked a Kenyan police base in Garissa County, North Eastern Province, Kenya.3) 13 MAY: Al Shabaab kidnapped an Iranian fishing vessel’s crew near El Dheer, Galgudud region.4) 15 MAY: Al Shabaab captured two towns in Lower Shabelle region.

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ASSESSMENT:

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AQIMPro-ISIS groups in the Maghreb and Sahel continue to emerge. A group calling itself the Skikda Battalion, known in Arabic as the Supporters of the Caliphate in the Rahman Mountains (Ansar al Khalifa fi Jebel al Rahman), pledged allegiance to ISIS in an audio statement. ISIS acknowledged the pledge from the Skikda Battalion in its May 10 weekly al Bayan news bulletin.

Outlook: ISIS appears to be gaining traction in North Africa, indicating that al Qaeda may be losing support from militants in the region.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Militant organizations continue to threaten attacks on the Tunisian state. The Islamist media outlet, al Afriqiyah Media, posted a video urging militants to conduct lone-wolf attacks in Tunisia to create a “summer of hell.” Similarly, the Uqba Ibn Nafaa Brigade also posted a video showing its members fighting against Tunisian security forces in Jebel Chaambi.

Outlook: The recent increase in media threats of attacks on Tunisia may indicate militant organizations are focusing their efforts on Tunisia.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) There may be a fracture within the Sahelian group, al Murabitoun, which formed as a merger between MUJAO and al Mulathamun. The Mauritanian news agency al Akhbar released an audio recording in which Abu Waleed al Sahraoui, claiming to speak for al Murabitoun, pledged allegiance to ISIS. A rectifying tweet later said that only MUJAO had pledged allegiance. Al Murabitoun’s pledge was later denied by an audio attributed to al Mulathamun leader, Mokhtar Belmokhtar. Separately, some rebel Tuareg groups signed the May 15 peace accord with the Malian government, although one of the largest groups, the MNLA, refused to sign the agreement.

Outlook: The failure of the MNLA to sign the May 15 peace agreement could presage further violence between rebel groups and the Malian government.

MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA1) 12 MAY: Suspected terrorists killed four Algerian vigilantes in Batna, northern Algeria. 2) 13 MAY: Algerian army units ambushed and killed two terrorists in Ain Defla, northern Algeria. 3) 14 MAY: Tunisian military units killed four terrorists hiding in Mount Samama, Kasserine, western Tunisia.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA1) 11 MAY: Rebels attacked a Malian army convoy in Timbuktu, northern Mali. 2) 13 MAY: CMA rebels clashed with pro-government militias, leaving four dead, in the village of Ikadewan, northeastern Mali. 3) 15 MAY: CMA rebels clashed with pro-government militias in Menaka, northeastern Mali, on the morning of the peace accord signing ceremony.

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ASSESSMENT:

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Regional Developments The Iran Shahed, a cargo ship carrying humanitarian aid supplies to support relief efforts in Yemen, left Bandar Abbas, Iran, on May 11. The Artesh Navy later announced that the 34th Fleet was “especially responsible for supporting” the Iran Shahed. Following an earlier U.S. statement that Iran should dock the vessel in Djibouti, Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated that after coordinating with the UN, Iran would dock the Iran Shahed at al Hudaydah, Yemen. IRGC boats also fired warning shots over the bow of the Singapore-flagged, Norwegian-operated Alpine Eternity in the Persian Gulf on May 14; Iranian sources stated that authorities had attempted to stop the Alpine Eternity for hitting an Iranian oil rig in March and causing $300 million in damages.

Arguing that Iranian missiles are “for the defense of…the entire Islamic world,” Expediency Discernment Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated that Iran would “defend” the “sovereignty of Saudi Arabia” if necessary. Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani echoed Rezaei’s comments later, stating Iran would defend Saudi sovereignty because Saudi Arabia “is Muslim.” Rezaei and Larijani’s comments reflect Iran’s projection as the leader of the Islamic world and the power responsible for regional security.

Outlook: Iran will continue to project itself as the leader of the Islamic world and source of regional security.

Nuclear Talks

The Iranian delegation led by senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araghchi and members of the P5+1 held a series of deputy-level talks from May 12-15 in Vienna, Austria. Both sides continued to work on drafting a final nuclear agreement. Araghchi expressed optimism that Iran and the P5+1 will reach a final deal before the self-imposed June 30 deadline. IAEA Secretary General Yukiya Amano, meanwhile, stated that Iran’s military sites can be inspected by agency officials. Amano, moreover, claimed that under the April 2 Lausanne framework agreement inspectors can request access to military sites as part of the Additional Protocol. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) dismissed Amano’s statements regarding inspections and criticized the IAEA secretary general for making baseless claims that could undermine the ongoing nuclear negotiations.

Outlook: Future plans for IAEA-led inspections of Iran’s non-nuclear facilities will continue to spark rhetorical outrage, given the Supreme Leader’s fears of humiliation by conceding to U.S. demands.

IRAN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

19 APR – 24 APR 2015

11 MAY: The Iranian Red Crescent Society announced that Iran Shahed, an Iranian cargo ship carrying humanitarian aid supplies, left Bandar Abbas, Iran.

11 MAY: Expediency Discernment Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated that Iranian missiles are “for the defense of…the entire Islamic world,” and that Iran would “defend” the “sovereignty of Saudi Arabia” if necessary.

12 MAY: Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed optimism that the P5+1 and Iran will reach a final nuclear deal before the June 30 deadline. Deputy-level talks between Iran and P5+1 members start.

12 MAY: The Artesh Navy announced the 34th Fleet is “especially responsible for supporting” the Iran Shahed. 12 MAY: NSFP Parliamentary Commission Chairman Alaeddin Boroujerdi stated that Iran is “planning to construct field

hospitals in Sana’a and Sa’ada.” 13 MAY: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei praised Iran-Iraq relations while meeting with Iraqi President Fuad Masum. 13 MAY: Ali Akbar Velayati criticized the GCC summit at Camp David as a show of “Iranophobia.”13 MAY: Ali Larijani stated that Iran would defend Saudi Arabia in the event of an Israeli attack. 13 MAY: The Ministry of Defense reiterated AFGS Headquarters Deputy IRGC Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri’s warning

against any attacks on the Iranian humanitarian aid ship bound for Yemen. 14 MAY: IRGC boats fired warning shots over the bow of Singapore-flagged vessel Alpine Eternity in the Persian Gulf. 14 MAY: Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated that Iran coordinated “with ‘relevant sides’ at the United

Nations” for docking the Iran Shahed at al Hudaydah, Yemen. 14 MAY: Chief of the Judiciary’s Human Rights Council Mohammad Javad Larijani criticized the Lausanne nuclear negotiations

as having “serious weaknesses” and said that “Iran must build five other underground [nuclear] sites.” 15 MAY: The fourth day of deputy level talks between Iran and P5+1 members take place.

09 MAY – 15 MAY 2015

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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State (IS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org (202) 888-6570

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.