AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

March 29, 2016

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan splinter and ISIS-leaning group Jamatul Ahrar claimed a suicide bombing in a park in Lahore, Pakistan, saying it was targeting Christians celebrating Easter.

2. The UN-backed Libyan unity government attempted to relocate to Tripoli, but opposing factions prevented its return. The internal divisions over support for the unity government may hinder counter-ISIS efforts.

3. A U.S. airstrike targeting an AQAP training camp in Hajr, Hadramawt, may have killed AQAP leader and former military commander Qasim al Raymi.

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ASSESSMENT:

al Qaeda Network

Al Qaeda’s affiliates continue to compete with the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) for leadership of the global Salafi-

jihadist movement. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has increased its activity inside of Algeria in response to low-level

defections from its ranks to ISIS. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has expanded significantly over the past few

months whereas the ISIS group in Yemen faced internal dissent. Jabhat al Nusra in Syria continues to intertwine itself in the

Syrian opposition, creating the groundwork for an enduring safe haven for the group.

Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns, building strength and

local resilience.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associates

Jamatul Ahrar, a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan splinter group that has demonstrated leanings toward support for ISIS, claimed

credit for the suicide attack in Lahore, Pakistan. The attack targeted Christians celebrating Easter in a large public park, killing

over 70 people. Jamatul Ahrar claimed credit for an attack in March 2015 targeting Christians in Lahore.

Outlook: Pakistani security forces will very likely begin a significant crackdown on radical militant Islamist groups in Punjab.

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AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

Political

The al Houthis and former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s party, the General People’s Congress, commemorated the first

anniversary of coalition airstrikes in Yemen with massive rallies in Sana’a. Abdul Malik al Houthi’s and Saleh’s remarks both

condemned the coalition’s intervention in Yemen and called for negotiations to end the crisis. The second al Houthi-Saudi

prisoner exchange occurred, a positive indicator in advance of UN-sponsored peace talks to begin on April 18 in Kuwait.

Outlook: Yemeni factions will likely continue to message objectives for the forthcoming UN-led talks.

Security

Al Houthi-Saleh forces continued to contest positions seized by coalition-backed forces in western Taiz city. Fighting along the

Ma’rib-Shabwah border has stalemated, but coalition-backed forces have begun a push from Ma’rib southward into al Bayda.

An armed southern faction in Dhaleh demonstrated against the Hadi government by blocking the road, a sign of continued

friction within the anti-al Houthi-Saleh coalition.

Outlook: Additional fracture lines are likely to appear on both sides should progress toward talks continue.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen

The U.S. and the Saudi-led coalition targeted AQAP positions in southeastern Yemen. A U.S. airstrike struck an AQAP training

camp in Hajr district, Hadramawt, and coalition airstrikes targeted AQAP sites in Lahij, Abyan, and Hadramawt. AQAP’s Ansar

al Sharia decried the airstrikes against its camps as Saudi Arabia preventing the group from fighting the al Houthis in al Bayda.

ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan conducted at least three suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attacks in

Aden. The ambulance used in the attack may be from a hijacking in Ibb, where ISIS initially had a strong recruiting base.

Outlook: AQAP will likely use the U.S. and coalition campaign as a rallying point among populations under its control, while

ISIS will continue to seek to destabilize Aden with high-profile attacks.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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1) 22 MAR: A U.S. airstrike may have killed AQAP emir Qasim al Raymi in an AQAP camp in al Hajr, Hadramawt.

2) 26 MAR: Al Houthis and GPC held mass rallies in Sana’a.

3) 25 MAR: ISIS conducted complex attack on coalition military sites in Aden.

4) 26 MAR: U.S. airstrike targeted AQAP camp near al Mahfad, Abyan.

5) 22, 23 MAR: Al Houthi-Saleh forces contested southern entrance to Taiz city.

ASSESSMENT:

Political

The Kenyan government appealed to the United Nations for additional funds for African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

troop operations after the European Union announced that it will cut 20 percent of its annual funding for the mission. The

African Union criticized the EU’s decision, claiming the cut in operations funding is occurring at a crucial time for AMISOM.

Outlook: AMISOM operations against al Shabaab will suffer unless troop-contributing countries can secure additional funding.

Security

Puntland and Galmudug state security forces conducted clearing operations, driving al Shabaab militants southward. The

militants captured Afbarwaqo, a village in the northern Mudug region on a key ground line of communication (GLOC)

connecting to al Shabaab-held areas farther south in Somalia. Control over the GLOC will allow al Shabaab to move militants

along the central Somali coastline.

Outlook: It is likely that al Shabaab militants will consolidate control over Afbarwaqo and towns along the GLOC in order to

secure a route northward into Puntland’s and Galmudug’s territories.

Al Shabaab

Al Shabaab militants carried out several targeted killings across Somalia this week. Al Shabaab executed several charcoal

traders in the Lower Jubba region, where it enacts social control measures in the areas under its control. Militants also shot a

Somali-Canadian businessman at a mosque in Mogadishu and killed a NISA soldier in a Mogadishu suburb as part of al

Shabaab’s ongoing efforts to destabilize the government and combat foreign influence.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to enforce social control in its areas of control and attack Somali government or foreign

targets in its attack zones.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

1) 28 MAR: Al Shabaab executed three coal merchants near Badhadhe, Lower Jubba region.

2) 28 MAR: Al Shabaab killed a Somali-Canadian businessman in Heliwa district, Mogadishu.

3) 27 MAR: Al Shabaab killed a NISA soldier in a suburb of Mogadishu.

4) 24 MAR: Kenyan forces arrested a Ugandan al Shabaab member at the Kenyan-Tanzanian border.

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ASSESSMENT:

Political

Tripoli militias aligned with the General National Congress (GNC) doubled down on their efforts to prevent the Government of

National Accord (GNA) from establishing itself in Libya’s capital. Pro-GNC militias mobilized in Tripoli and sealed off entry points

to the city; they also closed the local airspace and fired anti-aircraft munitions to deter GNA members from flying in from Tunis.

Several Misratan militias declared support for the GNA and formed an operations room to install the GNA in Tripoli by force.

Outlook: The imposition of the GNA will continue to divide western Libyan factions. It may result in significant violence in the

capital, which could permanently fracture the Libya Dawn-Misratan bloc that is currently blocking ISIS’s westward expansion.

Security

Libyan National Army (LNA) forces continued efforts to clear Islamist militants from Benghazi’s western periphery and isolated

pockets in the city. The LNA’s air force intensified its bombing campaign against ISIS Wilayat Barqa, which is attempting to

regain territory in Derna. The LNA is providing air support for the Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (MSCD), which includes

Ansar al Sharia-linked factions and currently controls the city.

Outlook: The LNA will struggle to control and retain Benghazi because of entrenched Salafi-jihadi networks that will facilitate

retaliatory attacks. The LNA may expand the scope of its operations in Derna and inadvertently strengthen local Islamist forces.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya

ISIS continues to project itself beyond its primary stronghold in Sirte. ISIS convoys are mobilizing in the vicinity of central

Libyan oil infrastructure to conduct reconnaissance, probably in preparation for resumed attacks. The movement of four deputy

ISIS leaders from the ISIS cell in Sabratha, which has supported attacks in Tunisia, to Sirte indicates overall coordination in

Libya, though the cell may not be under the command and control of ISIS leadership in Libya.

Outlook: ISIS will expand its area of operations in southwestern Libya and conduct opportunistic attacks on oil infrastructure.

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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1) 24-28 MAR: Pro-GNC militias mobilized in Tripoli, forced the closure of the local airspace and fired AA guns at pro-GNA militias.

2) 22-28 MAR: LNA forces continued clearing operations in Benghazi.

3) 22 MAR: An ISIS convoy mobilized near Marada.

4) 28 MAR: Four ISIS deputy leaders from the Sabratha cell traveled to Sirte.

5) 24-28 MAR: LNA aircraft bombed ISIS militants in Derna.

ASSESSMENT:

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)

AQIM is likely competing with ISIS to lead jihad in Algeria. A captured ISIS militant revealed plans for an attack on Constantine

and alluded to clashes between ISIS and AQIM militants there, days after security forces thwarted a possible AQIM bombing in

Tizi Ouzou. Algeria's active efforts against terrorist movements make it difficult for ISIS to form new cells in the country.

However, the leader of Sabratha's Military Council indicated that ISIS’s Sabratha cell remains focused on Tunisia, but may also

have the capability to attack Algeria from its Libyan safe haven.

Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will focus attacks and recruitment on countering ISIS in the Sahel and Maghreb.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)

ISIS-linked activity in areas frequented by AQIM affiliate Uqba Ibn Nafa’a suggests a significant effort by ISIS to gain influence

and possibly establish a new wilayat in Tunisia. Algerian forces along the Tunisian border killed two suspected Uqba Ibn Nafa’a

militants carrying ISIS paraphernalia and a list of targeted Tunisian officials. Defections from Uqba Ibn Nafa’a to ISIS are

unconfirmed, and militant affiliations are not necessarily fixed.

Outlook: ISIS will continue to develop a networked threat aimed at destabilizing both Tunisia and Algeria.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)

Ansar al Din claimed credit for improvised explosive device (IED) attacks on a UN truck in Kidal region and a Malian army

vehicle in Gao region, northeastern Mali. The claimed attack in Menaka, Gao region, suggests the group has expanded its

operations across northern Mali, perhaps with the support of other militant networks in the region. The Ansar al Din-linked

Macina Liberation Front likely conducted the IED attack on a Malian army convoy near Douentza, Mopti region, central Mali.

Outlook: Ansar al Din will maintain its current pace of attacks on international and local security forces in order to disrupt the

implementation of the peace process and expand its area of operations.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 22 MAR: Tunisian forces dismantled an ISIS-linked terror cell in Tunis and Kef.2) 23 MAR: Algerian security forces arrested a suspected terrorist in Ouargla.3) 24 MAR: Algerian forces killed two Uqba Ibn Nafa’amilitants carrying ISIS documents and a list of targeted Tunisian officials in Tebessa.4) 27-28 MAR: Algerian forces killed four suspected terrorists after an attempted suicide bombing on 24 MAR in Tizi Ouzou.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 23 MAR: Ansar al Din detonated an IED targeting a UN truck in Kidal.

2) 23 MAR: Ansar al Din detonated an IED targeting an army vehicle in Menaka.

3) 27 MAR: Security forces arrested two suspected accomplices of the Grand Bassam attackers in Gossi and Goundam, Timbuktu.

4) 28 MAR: AQIM-linked militants planted an IED targeting an army vehicle in Mopti region.

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ACRONYMS

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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)

Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)

Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Possible military dimensions (PMD)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org(202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org(202) 888-6569

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