AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT November 11, 2015

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. An IRGC Intelligence Organization representative released details on the recent arrest of several media professionals in a probable effort to contain President Rouhani's domestic influence after the nuclear deal.

2. An American contractor died in custody in Sana’a, Yemen. Details surrounding the circumstances of his death are still forthcoming. A second American contractor and an American teacher remain in custody.

3. A second small group of al Shabaab militants pledged allegiance to ISIS, prompting al Shabaab to take further measures to crack down on potential defectors.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAn al Qaeda operative who had served seven years in an Italian prison for his role in a recruitment cell attempted to return to Europe disguised as a refugee. Italian authorities arrested Tunisian Mehdi bin Nasr, deported to Tunisia last year, after he had concealed himself among a group of refugees and claimed political asylum. Mehdi is an explosives expert and previously facilitated the travel of al Qaeda recruits to Iraq and Afghanistan. His attempt to enter Europe is an example of the security vulnerabilities created by the refugee crisis and growing Islamist militancy.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to contest ISIS’s legitimacy based on ISIS’s actions and how it self-declared itself to be the Islamic Caliphate.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associates

The Pakistani military continued its ground and air operations in the Shawal Valley area of North Waziristan. The Pakistani Air Force killed at least 20 militants during airstrikes in Khyber Agency, on November 7, 2015. Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistani military’s offensive in North Waziristan, is in its final phase.

Outlook: The Pakistani military will continue Operation Zarb-e-Azb to eliminate militancy in the tribal areas of North Waziristan.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalYemeni and international stakeholders are preparing for UN-led peace talks set for mid-November. A delegation of al Houthi representatives and former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh loyalists completed preliminary UN-led consultations in Muscat, Oman. President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government named a delegation for the talks, but Hadi’s foreign minister described the al Houthis as “not serious” about the negotiations.

Outlook: Stakeholders will remain committed to a UN-led dialogue to resolve the broader political conflict in Yemen, but any negotiated outcome is unlikely to stabilize Yemen at the local level.

SecurityAl Houthi-Saleh forces are attempting to consolidate recent gains in central and southern Yemen. They seized a strategic location in Lahij governorate near al Anad airbase and advanced on anti-al Houthi positions in Taiz and Lahij governorates, despite support to local forces from the coalition. Separately, an American contractor died in al Houthi custody in Sana’a. He and a second American contractor were detained on October 20. The al Houthis also continue to hold an American teacher.

Outlook: Fighting will continue along a fairly fixed natural frontline within Yemen’s human terrain.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP and ISIS continue to take advantage of the security vacuum to expand behind the frontlines. AQAP militants controlling al Mukalla, Hadramawt are attempting to manage the aftermath of Cyclone Chapala as a second cyclone approaches the Yemeni coast. AQAP may leverage aid delivered to “de facto” authorities to build popular support as it releases photos of assisting people in al Mukalla.

Outlook: AQAP’s ability to meet humanitarian needs of populations in areas under its control or influence will serve as a legitimizing tool.

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

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1) 03 NOV: Popular resistance fighters stormed the presidential palace in protest of Hadi’s government in Aden.2) 07-08 NOV: Al Houthi and coalition forces continued to clash in Taiz.3) 08 NOV: Al Houthi forces took a strategic hilltop overlooking al Anad Airbase in Lahij governorate.4) 09 NOV: Al Houthis seized control of Damt city in al Dhaleh governorate.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalRegional tensions are increasing. Kenya is attempting to build a wall along the Kenyan-Somali border to prevent al Shabaab incursions into the country, but there are accusations that this extends into Somali territory. Ethiopia’s African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) contingent is accused of taking sides in Gedo region’s political developments by arresting village elders opposed to the region’s governor. Separately, the technical committee for the Hiraan and Middle Shabelle region state merger was dissolved following political gridlock, likely delaying the state formation process, part of Somalia’s federalization process.

Outlook: Kenya and Ethiopia will likely continue influencing Somali regional politics in their respective AMISOM sectors.

SecurityAhlu Sunna wa al Jama’a, a group allied with the federal government against al Shabaab, is threatening to capture settlements within the newly established Central “Galmudug” State. Galmudug security forces deployed in response to the threats and are also conducting anti-piracy operations by raiding strongholds in the area and rescuing hostages. Additionally, al Shabaab’s deadly attack on the Sahafi hotel in Mogadishu on November 1 has prompted increased security and vehicle searches in the capital. Somali security forces arrested suspected suicide bombers, which may indicate al Shabaab intentions to conduct more high-profile attacks in the capital.

Outlook: Galmudug State and ASWJ forces will likely clash in the near future.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab continued to ambush convoys throughout the country, disrupting AMISOM and Somali National Army supply lines and preventing AMISOM from consolidating positions. Al Shabaab also continued to conduct targeted killings of government workers, most notably the assassination of a Somali MP in Mogadishu. Finally, al Shabaab faces a growing challenge from ISIS. A second group of unidentified al Shabaab militants allegedly pledged support for ISIS.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely try to conduct more high-profile attacks in Mogadishu against government officials.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 04 NOV: IJA forces, supported by Kenyan AMISOM forces attacked a SNA base near Kismayo, Lower Jubba region2) 05-09 NOV: SNA and KDF forces clashed with al Shabaab near Bardhere, Gedo region.3) 07 NOV: Al Shabaab gunmen assassinated a Somali MP in Mogadishu. 4) 06 NOV: ASWJ deployed forces to outskirts of Hananbure, Galgudud region.

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalRepresentatives from both the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) and the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) have increased pressure on their respective leadership to force an official vote on the proposal for a Libyan national unity government. The GNC is forcibly stopping select pro-vote GNC MPs from entering parliament in order to prevent any votes that would undermine its hold on power.

Outlook: The HoR and GNC rebel blocs will continue to push for negotiations, despite delays from the leadership.

SecurityThe Tripoli Revolutionaries’ Brigade (TRB), a former Libya Dawn-affiliated militia, kidnapped the GNC Planning Minister and attacked the Prime Ministry, a sign of infighting between the GNC and the hardline militias within Tripoli over Libya Dawn’s response to the October 27 helicopter crash. The group defended its actions by claiming an anti-corruption campaign, but this attack represents a new level of distrust and anger. The GNC responded by disavowing the group and calling for the TRB commander’s arrest.

Outlook: Tensions will continue to rise between the increasingly hawkish Tripoli-based militias and the GNC over its restrained response to the October 27 helicopter crash that it blames on the Libyan National Army.

Ansar al Sharia and ISIS in LibyaISIS Wilayat Barqa cells continued to expand their assassination operations in Ajdabiya, Libya, with two separate attacks over the past week. The cell appears to focus its efforts on imams and other religious leaders in the city.Ansar al Sharia issued a new warning about an “imminent war between faith and disbelief” in Libya that would develop out of the proposed Libyan Government of National Accord.

Outlook: ISIS Wilayat Barqa cells will build greater momentum through the assassination campaign and may expand the list of targets to include public secular government figures or tribal leaders.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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1) 02-03 NOV: The Tripoli Revolutionaries’ Brigade kidnapped a GNC minister and attacked the Prime Ministry in Tripoli, Libya.2) 03 NOV: Libya Dawn units began shelling LNA-allied tribal forces in Zawia, Libya.3) 06 NOV: ISIS Barqa cells assassinated another imam near Ajdabiya, Libya.4) 08 NOV: Gunmen ambushed and kidnapped Serbian diplomatic staff near Sabrata, Libya.

ASSESSMENT:

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AQIM Algerian security forces continue to interrupt AQIM activities. Search operations seized three arms caches in Bouira and Tizi Ouzou, northern Algeria, and airstrikes targeted terrorists along the Malian and Tunisian borders. These airstrikes represent an escalation in Algerian military operations against terrorist activities.

Outlook: AQIM will try to evade Algeria’s military operations, while continuing to unite the radical Islamist groups in the region.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Tunisian forces arrested an Ansar al Sharia member, marking the first arrest since August. There have been no recent reports of Ansar al Sharia activity, so the group is most likely pursuing only propaganda and preaching. Additionally, the Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade, an AQIM-linked group with ties to Ansar al Sharia, may have killed its emir, although this source has yet to be verified. If confirmed, this assassination would reveal infighting within the most active jihadist group in Tunisia. The Brigade also announced it will release a new video soon.

Outlook: Ansar al Sharia will continue its clandestine preaching, while the Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade will continue its trend of propaganda against the military and government.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) Malian and Nigerien forces launched Operation Djiguifa, a counterterrorism mission in the Gao region of northeast Mali along the border of Niger. Djiguifa, in combination with recently announced Operation Seno, aims to clear the border regions of Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, and Niger of militants linked to Ansar al Din-affiliate Macina Liberation Front (MLF). The French counterterrorism campaign in the Sahel region, Operation Barkhane, is providing support to both initiatives.  Outlook: Ansar al Din and affiliates will be pressured to move inland to avoid capture by ongoing clearing operations along Mali’s border regions. Consequentially, this pressure to avoid capture will weaken their capacity to carry out operations.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 03 NOV: Algerian forces destroyed two shelters hiding explosive materials in Bouira, Algeria. 2) 04 NOV: Tunisian forces arrested an Ansar al Sharia member in Tunis, Tunisia.3) 05 NOV: Algeria conducted air strikes and killed three terrorists in Bordj Badji Mokhtar, Algeria.4) 08 NOV: Algerian forces killed a terrorist during a search operation in Ouled Hellal, Medea, Algeria.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA1) 07 NOV: Malian and Nigerien armed forces launched a counterterrorism operation in Gao region along the Nigerien-Malian border.2) 03, 07 NOV: Malian security forces arrested seven suspected terrorists in two operations in Mopti region, Mali.3) 03 NOV: Malian and French forces uncovered weapons caches in Adrar des Ifoghas region in Kidal, Mali.

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ASSESSMENT:

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Domestic PoliticsAn IRGC Intelligence Organization representative released “new details” on the recent arrest of several media professionals with alleged ties to the UK and U.S. governments on November 4. The IRGC accused the arrested individuals of being affiliated with a network attempting to “pollute some domestic publications” and “influence” Iranian public opinion in favor of the U.S. President Hassan Rouhani pushed back on the arrests by criticizing individuals who “misuse” the word “influence” to marginalize opposition. On November 8, Rouhani reiterated his November 4 remarks and censured regime hardliners for misusing legal texts to suppress freedom of the press. He also stressed the need for legal justification in cases involving media misconduct.

Outlook: Regime hardliners will continue targeting reformist news outlets in order to contain Rouhani’s domestic influence following the nuclear deal.

Regional Developments and DiplomacySupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged officials to remain vigilant regarding U.S. hostility during a November 3 speech marking the anniversary of the 1979 U.S. embassy hostage crisis. On November 4, Senior Foreign Policy Advisor to the Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati stated that Iranian-Russian cooperation will “increase” despite disagreements about the presence of Lebanese Hezbollah in Syria. On November 7, Velayati confirmed that Iran will participate in the next round of Syria peace talks that began in Vienna on October 30. He emphasized that Iran will not abandon its “red lines” and pointed to Iran’s invitation to the talks as evidence that “everyone has admitted” that a political solution in Syria cannot be reached without Iran.

Outlook: Iran will continue to portray itself as a willing and necessary participant in regional negotiations without directly negotiating with the U.S.

IRAN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

NOV 3: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged officials to remain vigilant regarding U.S. hostility.NOV 3: Iranian media reported the deaths of several IRGC members in Syria, including IRGC Colonel Ezzatollah Soleimani

and IRGC Captain Sajjad Hosseini.NOV 4: The Supreme Leader’s Senior Foreign Policy Advisor Ali Akbar Velayati said that Iranian-Russian cooperation will

“increase” but noted that the two countries disagree “about the presence of Lebanese Hezbollah in Syria.”NOV 4: An IRGC Intelligence Organization representative announced details on the recent arrest of several media

professionals with alleged ties to the UK and U.S. governments.NOV 4: President Hassan Rouhani cautioned against officials using foreign influence as an excuse to marginalize political

opponents.NOV 5: Hardliner Parliamentarian Hojjat ol Eslam Mahmoud Nabavian called for the Special Parliamentary Commission to

Review the JCPOA to remain “active” in monitoring the implementation of the nuclear deal.NOV 5: Iranian media reported the deaths of six more Iranians in Syria, including IRGC Mohammad Rasoul Allah unit member

Ghadir Sarlak.NOV 5: Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh issued a directive to begin a blockade on the

import of U.S. consumer goods.NOV 6-9: Five more Iranians were killed in Syria, including IRGC Majors Mousa Jamshidian and Mohammad Tahan.NOV 7: Velayati confirmed that Iran will participate in the next round of Syria peace talks.NOV 8: Rouhani censured regime hardliners for misusing legal texts to suppress freedom of the press.NOV 8: Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani blamed mismanagement rather than sanctions alone for many of Iran’s economic

problems.NOV 9: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called for greater organization to resist foreign influence in the post-JCPOA

period.

03 – 09 NOV

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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analyst emily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569