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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT May 12, 2015
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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1. Al Houthis fired mortars into Najran, Saudi Arabia, leading Saudi Arabia to respond with an escalation in airstrikes on al Houthi territory in Sa'ada.
2. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited Somalia on May 5, becoming the first sitting Secretary of State to do so.3. Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Iran will not negotiate under the “sword” and warned the U.S. that military
action against Iran will not go unpunished.
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ASSESSMENT:
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PoliticalSaudi Arabia announced that it would implement a five-day ceasefire beginning on May 12. The ceasefire is contingent upon the al Houthis agreeing to lay down their arms. Despite the coming ceasefire, Saudi Arabia also announced on May 8 that it now considers Sa’ada governorate a military target and dropped leaflets to Yemeni civilians in Sa’ada encouraging them to leave the area. Both announcements come amid increasing al Houthi cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabian territory.
Outlook: It is uncertain how the al Houthi movement will respond to the Saudi-proposed ceasefire for humanitarian relief in Yemen. The scale of Saudi military operations in Sa’ada before May 12 could cause the al Houthis to reject the ceasefire.
SecurityAl Houthi militants fired mortars at Najran city, Saudi Arabia, on May 6, killing two Saudi civilians and one soldier. Saudi Arabia retaliated with widespread airstrikes in Sa’ada on May 8 and destroyed the tomb of al Houthi founder, Hussein al Houthi. Separately, Saudi-trained Yemeni soldiers arrived in Aden city, Aden, on May 3 to reinforce popular resistance fighters battling the al Houthis throughout the city. Popular resistance fighters continued to attack al Houthi positions in Taiz, Abyan, Lahij, Shabwah, Ma’rib, and al Dhaleh governorates but have failed to make gains against the al Houthis.
Outlook: It is unclear if Saudi Arabia will consider ground operations in Yemen in response to al Houthi attacks on Saudi civilian targets.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)AQAP’s al Malahem Media Foundation released a video confirming the death of AQAP leader Nasser bin Ali al Ansi on May 7. Al Ansi was reportedly killed during a U.S. airstrike in April. Separately, Ansar al Sharia militants seized control of al Shihr port, Hadramawt. Ansar al Sharia has continued to hold and expand its territory in eastern Yemen, despite the beginning of anti-AQAP protests in al Mukalla, Hadramawt, from May 2-8.
Outlook: AQAP will continue to exploit the current chaos in Yemen to expand and hold its territory in eastern Yemen.
YEMENGULF OF ADEN
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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF
ADEN
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1) 03 MAY: Saudi-trained Yemeni soldiers arrived in Aden city, Aden to battle the al Houthis.2) 02-08 MAY: Anti-AQAP protests in al Mukalla, Hadramawt.3) 05-07 MAY: Al Houthi militants fired rockets at Saudi targets in Najran and Jizan, Saudi Arabia.4) 02-08 MAY: Popular resistance fighters battled al Houthis for control of Taiz city, Taiz.
ASSESSMENT:
PoliticalIn a sign of continued U.S. support for Somalia, Secretary of State John Kerry visited Mogadishu on May 5 and met with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke. Kerry praised Somalia for the progress that it has made and announced that the U.S. would begin to establish an embassy in Mogadishu. Separately, a conference held in Garowe, Nugaal region, involving leaders from the Somali Federal Government, Puntland administration, Interim Juba administration, and the South West administration concluded on May 2. The conference focused on achieving the Vision 2016 goals, with all parties agreeing to participate in elections in 2016.
Outlook: The conference appears to have helped pave the way towards achieving the Vision 2016 goals, which will prove important in establishing an increasingly functional Somali government.
Security In continuing its crackdown on al Shabaab, Kenyan police arrested 16 suspected al Shabaab members in a mosque in Marasabit County, Eastern province, on May 8. Police said that the suspects were Muslim preachers and that they had received information regarding the suspects from informants, which then led to their arrest.
Outlook: Al Shabaab continues to be active in Kenya, further highlighting the need for Kenyan security services to maintain good relations with minority Muslim and Somali communities so that similar tips can help combat al Shabaab.
Al ShabaabPro-al Shabaab group al Muhajiroun in East Africa released a statement on May 4, warning that the group had awakened in East Africa and threatened the UN and the governments of Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya. While al Muhajiroun in East Africa’s statement is similar to statements from al Shabaab, the group has yet to conduct any significant attacks. Meanwhile, al Shabaab continued to carry out attacks in Mogadishu when it assassinated a government official on May 6.
Outlook: Al Shabaab is expected to continue to be able to conduct attacks in Mogadishu seemingly at will, with little interference from Somali security forces.
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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HORN OF AFRICA
GULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICA
GULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICA
GULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICA
GULF OF ADEN
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1) 03 MAY: Suspected al Shabaab militants detonated an IED in Elwaq, Gedo region.2) 06 MAY: Al Shabaab assassinated Wadajir district mayor in Wadajir, Mogadishu.3) 06 MAY: Al Shabaab detonated an IED in Elasha, Banadir region.4) 08 MAY: Kenyan police arrested 16 suspected al Shabaab members in Marsabit county, Eastern Province, Kenya.
ASSESSMENT:
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AQIM Algerian security forces conducted interdiction operations across towns in northern Algeria. Army units killed three terrorists in Bouira and Ain Defla. Special forces discovered a storage space containing 25 bombs in Skikda.
Outlook: Algerian security forces will continue to conduct sweeping operations and counter-terrorism activities.
Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Soldiers of the Caliphate in Africa, an ISIS-linked group, has increased its online presence. It released a video threatening Tunisian soldiers with a similar death to that of Moaz al Kasasbeh, the Jordanian pilot immolated by ISIS. Soldiers of the Caliphate in Africa also warned Christians from traveling to Tunisia, threatening them with an operation worse than the Bardo museum.
Outlook: The extent of ISIS’ s presence in Tunisia is unclear, but the recent increase in the online activity of the group could draw more support for ISIS in Tunisia.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) The situation in northern Mali continues to deteriorate. Tuareg rebels damaged a historic mausoleum in Hamdallahi, central Mali. The rebels also fired mortars at the MINUSMA camp in Kidal, northern Mali, and clashed with Malian soldiers in Tenenko, central Mali. The MINUSMA chief announced that rebels will be allowed to sign the peace agreement even after the May 15 deadline.
Outlook: The increase in violence throughout northern Mali is likely to derail the peace and reconciliation process.Tuareg rebels are unlikely to agree to the terms of the peace deal in the near future.
MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST
AFRICA
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1) 05 MAY: Tunisian security forces arrested eight suspected terrorists in Kasserine, western Tunisia. 2) 05 MAY: Tunisian security forces arrested 20 individuals linked to a March 2015 terrorist operation, in Kasserine, western Tunisia. 3) 07 MAY: Algerian army units discovered 25 bombs in Skikda and Tizi Ouzou, northern Algeria.
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST
AFRICA
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1) 02 MAY: Rebel fighters attacked the town of Dire, northern Mali, and captured a soldier. 2) 03 MAY: Militants damaged a UN World Heritage site in Hamdallahi, central Mali. 3) 05 MAY: Clashes occurred between CMA fighters and Malian soldiers, in Tenenko, central Mali.4) 06 MAY: Mortar fire targeted the MINUSMA camp in Kidal, northern Mali.
ASSESSMENT:
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Regional Developments and DiplomacyIRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Hossein Salami stated in an interview on May 6 that, “We welcome a war with the Americans, because we believe that it will be the scene of our success…” He also stated, “If they [the Americans] use their aircraft carriers as a…source of power, they know that they will be destroyed...” Salami’s heated rhetoric is likely a reaction to several publically unsuccessful attempts to deliver aid to Yemen is support of the al Houthis rather than an indication of actual escalation of the current crisis in Yemen. A convoy of Iranian ships purportedly carrying arms to the al Houthis altered its course after the arrival of an American aircraft carrier strike group in the Gulf of Aden in late April; the Saudi-led coalition also bombed the Sana’a International Airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing.
Outlook: Iran will continue its attempts to send humanitarian aid to Yemen; a ship carrying 2,500 tons of aid supplies bound for the port city of al Hudaydah left Bandar Abbas, Iran, on May 11.
Nuclear Talks
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the U.S. that Iran will not negotiate under the “sword” and reinforced his redlines for a nuclear deal in an impassioned speech on May 6. Khamenei was particularly enraged by Vice President Joe Biden’s remarks on April 30, implying that the military option against Iran remains on the table. Secretary of State John Kerry, furthermore, claimed that the U.S. has developed a Massive Ordinance Penetrator that could destroy Tehran’s nuclear program. He pointed to Washington’s rhetoric and said that the military option is “foolish,” because it would leave the U.S. “trapped in the sand.” The Supreme Leader, meanwhile, cautioned his negotiating team not to cross his redlines, stressing that the prescribed guidelines “[must] always be observed, which is [he let out a noticeable sigh], I suppose, God willing,” reflecting the agonizing domestic struggles of the ongoing negotiations and its toll on Khamenei.
Outlook: The Supreme Leader’s fears of humiliation by conceding to the U.S. are becoming more transparent through his warnings to the Iranian negotiating team. Khamenei will continue to reinforce his redlines for an acceptable nuclear deal.
IRAN
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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN
19 APR – 24 APR 2015
MAY 04: AFGS Headquarters Chief Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi outlined “basic principles” for a final nuclear deal.
MAY 04: IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari claimed that the ‘resistance’ in Yemen was modeled after the
Islamic Revolution.
MAY 04: Artesh Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari stated that foreign powers cannot deter Iran from
strengthening its naval presence.
MAY 06: The Supreme Leader warned the U.S. that Iran will not negotiate under the “sword.”
MAY 06: IRGC Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami explicitly warned the U.S. against threatening Iran and said that
the regime would “welcome a war with the Americans.”
MAY 06: Iran and India agreed to construct a new seaport in the city of Chabahar, Iran.
MAY 07: Iran released the Maersk Tigris, which was detained by Iranian naval forces on April 28.
MAY 08: National Security and Foreign Policy Parliamentarian Commission member Mohammad Esmail Kowsari dismissed the
U.S. Senate bill on a nuclear deal as a political ploy to undermine negotiations.
MAY 08: The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran reiterated that Iran will not grant international inspectors access to its military
sites.
04 MAY – 08 MAY
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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)
Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
Islamic State (IS)
Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
North Waziristan (NWA)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
South Waziristan (SWA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
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CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS
Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda [email protected] (202) 888-6576
Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda [email protected] (202) 888-6570
Marie DonovanIran [email protected](202) 888-6572
Mehrdad MoarefianIran [email protected](202) 888-6574
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.
