Daily Technical Trader - Qatar March 30, 2016

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Wednesday, 30 March 2016

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

VFQS 12.30 12.80

GWCS 61.00 55.50

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 10,316.67 1.69 7.3

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 10,250 10,400 10,500

Support 10,000 9,800 9,600

QSE Index Commentary

Overview:

The current bounce kept the Index in the

trading range sustained in the past few

weeks. This is an indecision period could

extend as we are seeing bullish and

bearish forces at a certain equilibrium.

The main support remains at the 10,000

level.

Expected Resistance Level: 10,250

Expected Support Level: 10,000

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 29 Mar 28 Mar %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 392.0 369.8 6.0

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 551.3 542.7 1.6

Volume (mn) 10.7 10.2 5.2

Number of Trans. 5,664 4,608 22.9

Companies Traded 38 42 -9.5

Market Breadth 27:9 16:23 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 16,599.58 1.7 61.0

All Share Index 2,864.29 1.6 67.0

Banks 2,798.26 1.2 58.3

Industrials 3,167.18 1.4 69.4

Transportation 2,547.87 1.2 70.1

Real Estate 2,527.25 3.5 66.6

Insurance 4,412.26 0.6 50.0

Telecoms 1,132.91 3.0 65.2

Consumer Goods 6,598.30 -0.1 75.0

Al Rayan Islamic 4,042.32 1.8 74.3

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QIGD 54.50 9.9 86.5

GWCS 61.00 -0.5 73.6

QNCD 88.20 0.2 72.7

ABQK 47.80 0.0 71.6

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)



VFQS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 12.30 1.23 743,728

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12.40 12.80 13.15

Support 11.75 11.42 11.00

Commentary

Overview:

VFQS remains inside a downtrend

channel in the longer term. That been

said, the price is trying to recover more

and more by creating higher tops and

higher bottoms in the short term. It also

experienced a pullback that could precede

an uptick.

Expected Target Price: QR12.80 – QR13.15

A price breakaway above QR12.40

triggers the buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR11.75

(Daily)


(Hourly)



GWCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 61.00 -0.49 270,942

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 63.60 65.00 68.00

Support 60.00 55.50 52.50

Commentary

Overview:

Since its lowest point in January 2016, the

name gained 62%. Now, it created a

bearish Shooting Star candlestick. This

candle suggests possible reversing move

to the uptick it experienced in the past

two month.

Expected Price Retreat: QR55.50 –

QR52.50

A price breach below QR60.00 triggers the

sell recommendation.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 10,316.67 10,039.63 10,119.00 10,168.04 10,247.41 10,326.78 10,375.82 10,455.19 9,808.01 10,035.68 10,865.39

Total Return 16,599.58 16,153.82 16,281.53 16,360.43 16,488.14 16,615.85 16,694.75 16,822.46 15,456.01 15,704.46 16,941.14

All Share 2,864.29 2,801.12 2,819.22 2,830.40 2,848.50 2,866.60 2,877.78 2,895.88 2,642.81 2,689.80 2,904.69

Al Rayan Islamic 4,042.32 3,971.93 3,992.10 4,004.56 4,024.72 4,044.89 4,057.35 4,077.51 3,592.01 3,701.94 4,100.74

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 35.60 35.20 35.35 35.45 35.60 35.75 35.85 36.00 34.85 35.91 39.99

CBQK 42.00 40.73 41.12 41.35 41.73 42.12 42.35 42.73 42.59 44.39 49.89

DHBK 36.85 36.42 36.57 36.66 36.82 36.97 37.06 37.22 38.48 41.44 46.51

QIBK 104.00 100.80 101.87 102.53 103.60 104.67 105.33 106.40 97.22 103.27 107.62

QIIK 71.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 67.52 66.76 71.81

Insurance

QATI 80.00 78.40 79.13 79.57 80.30 81.03 81.47 82.20 75.45 73.26 77.61

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 111.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 99.79 112.45 143.41

Industrials

IQCD 107.90 105.37 106.09 106.54 107.27 107.99 108.44 109.17 103.60 104.84 117.78

QEWS 200.00 194.67 196.19 197.14 198.67 200.19 201.14 202.67 194.54 201.02 208.48

GISS 36.50 35.57 35.89 36.09 36.42 36.74 36.94 37.27 36.97 44.10 56.32

QIGD 54.50 52.50 53.07 53.43 54.00 54.57 54.93 55.50 34.78 36.16 42.51

Real Estate

BRES 36.50 34.67 35.24 35.59 36.17 36.74 37.09 37.67 35.00 37.35 42.21

UDCD 19.50 19.14 19.25 19.32 19.43 19.54 19.61 19.72 19.90 20.36 22.32

ERES 18.20 17.07 17.39 17.59 17.92 18.24 18.44 18.77 15.38 15.69 17.01

MRDS 14.06 13.57 13.75 13.87 14.06 14.24 14.36 14.55 11.84 12.80 14.58

Telecommunication

ORDS 88.00 84.00 85.15 85.85 87.00 88.15 88.85 90.00 84.71 78.34 78.42

VFQS 12.30 11.71 11.89 12.01 12.20 12.38 12.50 12.69 11.15 11.58 13.28

Transportation

QGTS 23.39 22.67 22.88 23.00 23.21 23.42 23.54 23.75 22.47 22.92 22.77

QNNS 91.30 89.57 90.25 90.68 91.37 92.05 92.48 93.17 92.05 93.61 95.55 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

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Daily Technical Trader - Qatar March 30, 2016