1. 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Wednesday, 25 February 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target MCGS 154.40 162.60 QIGD 44.95 47.50 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 12,525.88 -0.2 6.2 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,600 12,800 12,900 Support 12,350 12,250 12,000 QSE Index Commentary Overview: Traders had a slow session. Investors are looking for a direction on the QSE Index. From a technical standpoint, the Index is going in a flat line and thus neutralizing any given signal by the technical indicators. In fact, they are becoming even less relevant, given the drop in traded volumes over the past couple of weeks. Expected Resistance Level: 12,800 Expected Support Level: 12,350 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 24 Feb 15 23 Feb 15 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 598.2 431.9 38.5 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 678.8 680.6 -0.3 Volume (mn) 10.9 7.6 43.4 Number of Trans. 5,707 4,866 17.3 Companies Traded 42 41 2.4 Market Breadth 18:22 21:17 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,934.32 -0.2 60.9 All Share Index 3,261.92 -0.3 61.9 Banks 3,314.26 0.0 63.5 Industrials 4,016.55 -0.3 55.0 Transportation 2,442.00 0.4 60.5 Real Estate 2,518.82 -0.4 59.5 Insurance 4,151.69 0.0 71.1 Telecoms 1,426.00 0.2 54.0 Consumer 7,297.76 -3.6 48.7 Al Rayan Islamic 4,459.76 0.4 67.6 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI MCGS 154.40 1.2 80.8 AHCS 18.58 0.5 71.7 MERS 221.60 3.6 71.7 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
2. 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6 MCGS Price % Ch. Volume Last 154.40 1.25 183,449 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 155.00 162.60 169.00 Support 152.00 149.00 142.00 Commentary Overview: MCGS is trading in unchartered territory (all-time-high). This may entice many traders to jump into the wagon, trying to catch the bus. The 50SMA could break above 100SMA (circled in green), which will be another bullish sign. However, technical risk the traders will have to tolerate is the overbought area that has been reached on the RSI. Expected Target Price: QR162.60 QR169.00 A sustained break above QR155.00 is needed before long position is triggered. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR152.00 (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
3. 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6 QIGD Price % Ch. Volume Last 44.95 5.89 383,555 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 45.00 47.50 50.00 Support 44.20 41.50 40.00 Commentary Overview: The name broke above the 100SMA and formed a bullish failure swing that could pull the price to the next resistance level of QR47.50. The MACD, on both time frames, exhibits bullish momentum as it is above zero line and pointing up. A bullish Engulfing candlestick was also formed. It is worth mentioning that the name is still trading below a medium-term downtrend line. Expected Target Price: QR47.50 QR50.00 A break above QR45.00 is needed to better confirm the expected price direction. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR43.45 (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
4. 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 12,525.88 12,441.36 12,472.38 12,491.54 12,522.56 12,553.58 12,572.74 12,603.76 12,142.23 12,760.30 12,981.44 Total Return 18,934.32 18,806.56 18,853.45 18,882.41 18,929.30 18,976.19 19,005.15 19,052.04 18,156.69 19,055.21 19,372.77 All Share 3,261.92 3,239.21 3,246.92 3,251.68 3,259.39 3,267.10 3,271.86 3,279.57 3,121.40 3,256.26 3,298.72 Al Rayan Islamic 4,459.76 4,400.75 4,418.38 4,429.28 4,446.92 4,464.55 4,475.45 4,493.09 4,129.56 4,319.30 4,383.50 Banks & Financials Services MARK 48.50 48.17 48.36 48.48 48.67 48.86 48.98 49.17 45.77 48.12 51.16 CBQK 68.20 67.67 67.90 68.04 68.27 68.50 68.64 68.87 67.64 69.92 69.19 DHBK 58.70 57.97 58.23 58.40 58.67 58.93 59.10 59.37 56.76 57.58 59.04 QIBK 104.00 102.87 103.48 103.86 104.47 105.08 105.46 106.07 103.72 106.35 105.24 QIIK 88.00 85.47 86.54 87.20 88.27 89.34 90.00 91.07 81.48 83.47 84.72 Insurance QATI 80.40 79.20 79.54 79.76 80.10 80.44 80.66 81.00 76.36 79.50 77.61 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 154.40 150.80 151.95 152.65 153.80 154.95 155.65 156.80 124.99 125.85 114.85 Industrials IQCD 152.00 151.07 151.56 151.87 152.37 152.86 153.17 153.67 157.85 173.52 178.42 QEWS 192.70 189.77 190.84 191.50 192.57 193.64 194.30 195.37 190.16 189.15 187.95 GISS 93.10 91.03 91.99 92.58 93.53 94.49 95.08 96.03 97.54 106.45 106.82 QIGD 44.95 40.02 41.43 42.30 43.72 45.13 46.00 47.42 39.79 44.28 52.04 Real Estate BRES 49.55 48.98 49.23 49.39 49.63 49.88 50.04 50.28 44.40 44.65 42.59 UDCD 24.00 23.61 23.72 23.79 23.90 24.01 24.08 24.19 23.82 25.32 26.25 ERES 16.77 16.59 16.67 16.71 16.79 16.87 16.91 16.99 15.28 17.03 19.57 MRDS 19.76 19.51 19.60 19.66 19.74 19.83 19.89 19.97 19.39 21.11 20.92 Telecommunication ORDS 114.00 113.00 113.57 113.93 114.50 115.07 115.43 116.00 116.00 119.32 127.63 VFQS 18.05 16.84 17.21 17.44 17.81 18.18 18.41 18.78 16.03 17.66 18.78 Transportation QGTS 24.40 23.99 24.13 24.21 24.34 24.48 24.56 24.69 23.41 23.64 23.75 QNNS 104.40 103.47 103.85 104.08 104.47 104.85 105.08 105.47 98.71 98.52 96.46 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
5. 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
6. 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6 Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager HNWI Head of Sales Trading Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (QNBFS) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (QNB). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.