Daily Technical Trader - Qatar March 29, 2016

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 29 March 2016

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

GISS 36.30 34.20

MCGS 111.00 115.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 10,145.39 -0.82 5.8

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 10,250 10,400 10,500

Support 10,000 9,800 9,600

QSE Index Commentary

Overview:

The Index has been correcting for the past

few sessions. This movement could

continue and remains to be a healthy

correction, as long as it stays above the

10,000 points.

Expected Resistance Level: 10,250

Expected Support Level: 10,000

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 28 Mar 27 Mar %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 369.8 273.2 35.3

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 542.7 545.5 -0.5

Volume (mn) 10.2 8.8 15.1

Number of Trans. 4,608 3,661 25.9

Companies Traded 42 38 10.5

Market Breadth 16:23 15:20 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 16,316.73 -0.7 54.3

All Share Index 2,818.48 -0.3 60.8

Banks 2,764.01 -0.5 52.5

Industrials 3,123.81 0.9 65.0

Transportation 2,517.82 -0.6 66.5

Real Estate 2,441.31 -1.2 59.0

Insurance 4,387.74 -1.3 48.4

Telecoms 1,100.08 0.9 56.5

Consumer Goods 6,601.89 -0.5 75.4

Al Rayan Islamic 3,969.52 0.2 69.6

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QIGD 49.60 10.0 82.3

GWCS 61.30 2.2 74.7

QNCD 88.00 2.3 72.1

ABQK 47.80 -0.4 71.6

MRDS 14.20 -1.7 71.1

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)



GISS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 36.30 0.69 325,948

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 37.20 38.00 40.00

Support 36.00 34.20 33.75

Commentary

Overview:

A sell recommendation was sent out by us

on the 21st

of this month, and the name

reached our 2nd

expected target with the

drop. Apparently, the name has been

moving alongside an important

downtrend line. The bearish scenario

might persist; bearish move on

momentum indicators is seen.

Expected Price Retreat: QR34.20 –

QR33.75

A price breach below QR36.00 triggers the

sell recommendation.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



MCGS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 111.00 -1.77 70,785

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 112.00 115.00 116.60

Support 109.00 101.30 100.00

Commentary

Overview:

The price retreated 10% since its previous

top. However, it remains above the short-

term uptrend line. As a result, this could

be a good pullback buy setup, but for the

short term.

Expected Target Price: QR115.00 –

QR116.60

A price breakaway above QR112.00

triggers the buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR109.00

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 10,145.39 10,072.50 10,113.99 10,139.62 10,181.10 10,222.59 10,248.22 10,289.70 9,772.23 10,046.91 10,873.53

Total Return 16,316.73 16,199.51 16,266.23 16,307.45 16,374.17 16,440.89 16,482.11 16,548.83 15,389.12 15,716.27 16,950.95

All Share 2,818.48 2,802.96 2,811.85 2,817.35 2,826.24 2,835.13 2,840.63 2,849.52 2,631.15 2,691.61 2,906.35

Al Rayan Islamic 3,969.52 3,944.95 3,958.04 3,966.13 3,979.23 3,992.32 4,000.41 4,013.51 3,572.39 3,704.79 4,103.55

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 35.45 34.95 35.16 35.29 35.50 35.71 35.84 36.05 34.73 35.98 40.04

CBQK 41.90 40.63 41.02 41.25 41.63 42.02 42.25 42.63 42.50 44.50 49.95

DHBK 36.60 36.33 36.45 36.52 36.63 36.75 36.82 36.93 38.44 41.56 46.59

QIBK 103.60 100.80 102.21 103.09 104.50 105.91 106.79 108.20 96.72 103.42 107.63

QIIK 71.50 70.30 70.91 71.29 71.90 72.51 72.89 73.50 67.21 66.78 71.85

Insurance

QATI 79.50 77.97 78.73 79.20 79.97 80.73 81.20 81.97 75.07 73.26 77.62

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 111.00 107.00 108.53 109.47 111.00 112.53 113.47 115.00 99.19 112.92 143.78

Industrials

IQCD 107.00 104.87 105.67 106.16 106.97 107.77 108.26 109.07 103.28 104.95 117.92

QEWS 196.10 193.50 194.80 195.60 196.90 198.20 199.00 200.30 194.14 201.14 208.58

GISS 36.30 35.77 36.00 36.14 36.37 36.60 36.74 36.97 37.01 44.34 56.54

QIGD 49.60 43.87 45.51 46.52 48.17 49.81 50.82 52.47 34.24 36.06 42.51

Real Estate

BRES 35.10 34.77 34.92 35.01 35.17 35.32 35.41 35.57 34.87 37.43 42.28

UDCD 19.30 18.81 19.02 19.14 19.34 19.55 19.67 19.87 19.85 20.41 22.34

ERES 17.51 17.16 17.36 17.48 17.69 17.89 18.01 18.22 15.27 15.70 17.01

MRDS 14.20 13.83 14.02 14.14 14.33 14.52 14.64 14.83 11.77 12.82 14.60

Telecommunication

ORDS 85.00 84.07 84.33 84.50 84.77 85.03 85.20 85.47 84.24 78.22 78.43

VFQS 12.15 11.58 11.76 11.86 12.03 12.21 12.31 12.48 11.10 11.60 13.30

Transportation

QGTS 23.01 22.34 22.57 22.71 22.93 23.16 23.30 23.52 22.38 22.94 22.76

QNNS 90.20 87.87 89.13 89.91 91.17 92.43 93.21 94.47 91.92 93.69 95.58 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

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Daily Technical Trader - Qatar March 29, 2016