QNBFS Daily Technical Trader - Qatar May 15, 2016 Inbox x

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 15 May 2016

Today’s Coverage

Ticker Price Target

BRES 32.15 33.35

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 9,941.42 0.54 6.9

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 10,000 10,100 10,250

Support 9,800 9,700 9,600

QSE Index Commentary

Overview:

The QSE Index pushed through the 10,000

resistance level but retreated back at the

end of the past session. That movement

created another candlestick with long top

shadow (Shooting Star candlestick). The

level is becoming more important to

break; the trend remains down in the

short-term.

Expected Resistance Level: 10,000

Expected Support Level: 9,800

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QSE Summary

Market Indicators 12 May 11 May %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 330.9 300.1 10.3

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 535.1 532.8 0.4

Volume (mn) 10.3 8.8 16.7

Number of Trans. 5,330 5,315 0.3

Companies Traded 41 41 0.0

Market Breadth 27:8 23:15 –

QSE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 16,084.56 0.5 44.5

All Share Index 2,778.76 0.4 45.0

Banks 2,667.98 -0.1 37.4

Industrials 3,098.74 0.7 49.8

Transportation 2,511.86 0.5 50.9

Real Estate 2,482.35 1.0 49.2

Insurance 4,090.20 0.3 33.7

Telecoms 1,138.57 1.7 50.5

Consumer Goods 6,692.92 0.5 60.4

Al Rayan Islamic 3,938.21 0.9 51.4

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)



Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES)

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 32.15 1.58 355,225

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 32.50 33.35 34.00

Support 31.65 31.00 30.00

Commentary

Overview:

The trend has been clearly down; the

latest recommendation we sent was a sell

recommendation. Afterwards, price

dipped and reached our first expected

target at QR32.00 (a drop of 5.3% from

QR33.80 trigger price). That been said, the

name could be stabilizing; we see positive

divergence on the RSI that could ignite a

bounce.

Expected Target Price: QR33.35 – QR34.00

A price breakaway above QR32.50

triggers the buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR31.65

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 9,941.42 9,852.06 9,891.94 9,916.57 9,956.45 9,996.33 10,020.96 10,060.84 10,200.04 9,929.07 10,569.97

Total Return 16,084.56 15,939.97 16,004.49 16,044.35 16,108.88 16,173.40 16,213.26 16,277.79 16,414.46 15,738.81 16,582.25

All Share 2,778.76 2,759.64 2,768.28 2,773.62 2,782.26 2,790.90 2,796.24 2,804.88 2,822.38 2,701.08 2,844.20

Al Rayan Islamic 3,938.21 3,896.61 3,912.40 3,922.16 3,937.95 3,953.74 3,963.50 3,979.29 3,950.48 3,723.65 3,990.35

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 33.90 33.73 33.83 33.89 33.98 34.08 34.14 34.23 34.89 34.80 38.17

CBQK 36.60 34.87 35.86 36.47 37.47 38.46 39.07 40.07 40.66 41.44 47.30

DHBK 36.20 35.80 35.95 36.05 36.20 36.35 36.45 36.60 37.29 38.50 43.92

QIBK 97.00 96.07 96.45 96.68 97.07 97.45 97.68 98.07 101.31 98.53 106.41

QIIK 61.80 61.07 61.41 61.62 61.97 62.31 62.52 62.87 66.60 65.30 69.33

Insurance

QATI 75.00 74.47 74.77 74.96 75.27 75.57 75.76 76.07 82.13 75.87 77.28

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 107.00 103.93 105.12 105.85 107.03 108.22 108.95 110.13 107.46 103.48 130.28

Industrials

IQCD 100.50 99.10 99.90 100.40 101.20 102.00 102.50 103.30 105.38 103.85 112.52

QEWS 209.60 205.93 207.04 207.73 208.83 209.94 210.63 211.73 203.59 200.65 206.02

GISS 34.75 34.18 34.41 34.55 34.78 35.01 35.15 35.38 35.84 38.26 49.47

QIGD 53.40 52.13 52.71 53.06 53.63 54.21 54.56 55.13 49.24 40.80 42.64

Real Estate

BRES 32.15 31.62 31.79 31.89 32.07 32.24 32.34 32.52 34.74 35.04 39.34

UDCD 18.78 18.41 18.51 18.58 18.69 18.79 18.86 18.97 19.47 19.63 21.46

ERES 18.01 17.52 17.68 17.79 17.96 18.12 18.23 18.40 17.92 16.24 17.07

MRDS 14.25 14.02 14.11 14.17 14.25 14.34 14.40 14.48 13.96 12.83 14.04

Telecommunication

ORDS 90.10 87.77 88.65 89.19 90.07 90.95 91.49 92.37 89.51 84.48 79.26

VFQS 11.60 10.95 11.17 11.31 11.53 11.75 11.89 12.11 12.15 11.59 12.59

Transportation

QGTS 23.05 22.48 22.71 22.85 23.08 23.31 23.45 23.68 23.28 22.73 22.93

QNNS 89.00 87.47 88.00 88.33 88.87 89.40 89.73 90.27 91.38 91.49 94.35 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

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QNBFS Daily Technical Trader - Qatar May 15, 2016 Inbox x