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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 01 May 2016

Today’s Coverage

Ticker Price Target

QEWS 208.80 215.00

NLCS 17.30 18.40

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 10,186.18 0.26 4.8

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 10,250 10,400 10,500

Support 10,100 10,000 9,800

QSE Index Commentary

Overview:

The QSE Index inched slightly up last

Thursday. The overall trend in the short

term remains flat but the intraday chart

shows positive motion for the Index that

could continue up.

Expected Resistance Level: 10,250

Expected Support Level: 10,100

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 28 Apr 27 Apr %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 328.6 487.0 -32.5

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 549.5 548.4 0.2

Volume (mn) 10.5 22.3 -52.9

Number of Trans. 5,468 7,564 -27.7

Companies Traded 42 42 0.0

Market Breadth 23:16 17:22 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 16,480.55 0.3 50.7

All Share Index 2,841.16 0.2 51.4

Banks 2,738.18 -0.3 47.4

Industrials 3,151.57 0.3 53.2

Transportation 2,538.22 0.5 52.8

Real Estate 2,551.51 0.9 53.7

Insurance 4,344.01 0.5 41.9

Telecoms 1,162.96 0.6 56.4

Consumer Goods 6,536.96 0.2 49.0

Al Rayan Islamic 3,965.13 0.3 48.9

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QISI 61.50 -2.2 25.7

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QEWS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 208.80 -0.29 53,738

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 209.40 215.00 220.00

Support 200.00 195.00 190.00

Commentary

Overview:

We sent a buy recommendation on the 7th

of April. The price reached our first target

of QR210.00, a 2.4% increase from our

trigger price of QR205.00. The name

retreated in a correction and now

stabilized again above the QR205.00. That

been said, the name is challenged by

tough resistance around the QR210.00

level.

Expected Target Price: QR215.00 –

QR220.00

A price breakaway above QR209.40

triggers the buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR200.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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NLCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 17.30 2.91 590,713

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 17.95 18.40 19.00

Support 16.70 16.40 15.00

Commentary

Overview:

The name gained over 100% from its

January bottom. Then it corrected to 50%

Fibonacci retracement of that bullish

move. Now, the price has created a bullish

Harami. It is not the strongest of signals,

but when coupled with golden crosses on

its SMAs and positive move on the

intraday Histogram, the story might be

bullish from the current levels.

Expected Target Price: QR18.40 – QR19.00

Only a price breakaway above QR17.95

triggers the buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR16.70

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 10,186.18 10,123.42 10,141.40 10,152.51 10,170.49 10,188.47 10,199.58 10,217.56 10,204.81 9,929.47 10,671.05

Total Return 16,480.55 16,379.03 16,408.12 16,426.08 16,455.17 16,484.26 16,502.22 16,531.31 16,335.72 15,676.42 16,707.86

All Share 2,841.16 2,825.15 2,829.74 2,832.58 2,837.18 2,841.77 2,844.61 2,849.21 2,804.48 2,688.69 2,865.40

Al Rayan Islamic 3,965.13 3,941.88 3,948.94 3,953.30 3,960.36 3,967.42 3,971.78 3,978.84 3,895.79 3,700.97 4,029.01

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 34.20 33.57 33.76 33.88 34.07 34.26 34.38 34.57 35.36 34.99 38.78

CBQK 38.30 37.70 37.89 38.01 38.20 38.39 38.51 38.70 41.86 42.23 48.21

DHBK 36.85 36.52 36.63 36.70 36.82 36.93 37.00 37.12 38.35 39.29 44.76

QIBK 98.20 96.80 97.53 97.97 98.70 99.43 99.87 100.60 101.38 99.66 106.93

QIIK 63.20 62.87 62.98 63.05 63.17 63.28 63.35 63.47 67.92 65.38 70.17

Insurance

QATI 79.90 78.17 78.66 78.97 79.47 79.96 80.27 80.77 81.76 75.14 77.66

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 92.70 91.57 92.14 92.49 93.07 93.64 93.99 94.57 108.28 105.93 134.91

Industrials

IQCD 105.00 103.27 103.76 104.07 104.57 105.06 105.37 105.87 106.54 103.90 114.19

QEWS 208.80 205.20 206.23 206.87 207.90 208.93 209.57 210.60 201.90 200.70 206.86

GISS 34.75 34.18 34.41 34.55 34.78 35.01 35.15 35.38 36.11 39.81 51.51

QIGD 52.90 51.30 51.99 52.41 53.10 53.79 54.21 54.90 46.24 39.19 42.63

Real Estate

BRES 33.80 32.33 32.87 33.20 33.73 34.27 34.60 35.13 35.63 35.70 40.26

UDCD 19.29 19.03 19.14 19.21 19.32 19.43 19.50 19.61 20.11 19.73 21.77

ERES 18.40 18.25 18.33 18.39 18.48 18.56 18.62 18.71 17.36 15.97 17.08

MRDS 14.45 14.12 14.22 14.28 14.39 14.49 14.55 14.66 13.40 12.75 14.22

Telecommunication

ORDS 91.70 88.57 89.90 90.73 92.07 93.40 94.23 95.57 89.12 82.52 78.99

VFQS 12.00 11.75 11.83 11.87 11.94 12.02 12.06 12.13 11.92 11.55 12.83

Transportation

QGTS 23.15 22.78 22.95 23.05 23.23 23.40 23.50 23.68 23.40 22.74 22.90

QNNS 90.50 89.30 89.64 89.86 90.20 90.54 90.76 91.10 92.72 92.04 94.81 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services. Co WLL One Person Company (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is

regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given

time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no

liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically

engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report

has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any

representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed

opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price

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