12 February Daily technical trader

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  1. 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Thursday, 12 February 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target MARK 49.15 50.00 NLCS 22.00 21.50 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 12,689.28 0.17 32.7 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,800 12,900 13,000 Support 12,600 12,350 12,250 QSE Index Commentary Overview: Another indecision candlestick was formed by the QSE Index in the last session. Hence, the QSE Index exhibited a Tweezers Top candlesticks formation. This formation is considered bearish in nature and needs a close below the 12,650 level to confirm the bearishness of the move. The RSI on the intraday chart shows negative divergence vs. price. We expect traders to reduce exposure around this level. Expected Resistance Level: 12,800 Expected Support Level: 12,350 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 11 Feb 15 09 Feb 15 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 985.8 1,313.9 -25.0 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 685.9 684.2 0.2 Volume (mn) 33.4 42.4 -21.2 Number of Trans. 9,957 12,350 -19.4 Companies Traded 41 42 -2.4 Market Breadth 19:20 20:18 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,948.10 0.8 66.4 All Share Index 3,263.76 0.9 68.1 Banks 3,258.87 0.0 60.3 Industrials 4,095.93 1.0 65.5 Transportation 2,461.37 1.1 73.1 Real Estate 2,582.06 2.8 74.5 Insurance 3,919.57 1.5 61.3 Telecoms 1,440.79 1.9 60.3 Consumer 7,351.32 -0.2 65.4 Al Rayan Islamic 4,471.13 1.8 73.3 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI AHCS 19.00 8.3 83.2 QNCD 145.00 0.0 76.1 ERES 17.00 3.0 75.3 VFQS 18.55 8.2 73.8 BRES 51.10 4.3 71.6 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  2. 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6 MARK Price % Ch. Volume Last 49.15 0.31 611,462 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 50.00 51.00 51.70 Support 48.70 46.40 43.60 Commentary Overview: The bank positively broke above a short- term downtrend line (denoted in the red- dashed line) and started a correction three sessions ago. In the last session, it created a bullish Doji candlestick. The MACD on both time frames is positive and picking up bullish momentum. In addition, the Doji candlestick has been created at a strong support above QR48.70. We conclude that the name could continue upwards. Expected Target Price: QR50.00 QR51.00 Accumulation at this level is suggested. If a trader wants to wait for a better confirmation, then a break above QR49.30 should reinforce that confirmation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR48.00 A break below means the name could correct further to QR46.40. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  3. 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6 NLCS Price % Ch. Volume Last 22.00 -2.22 312,531 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 22.00 22.50 23.45 Support 22.00 21.50 21.00 Commentary Overview: After reaching the top of the Ascending Triangle (denoted with the red line), the name created a Doji top candlestick. It is a bearish reversing candlestick that was confirmed by the close below the Dojis low in yesterdays session. As long as the name does not break the QR23.00 upward, then the name is in a correction phase. Expected Price Retreat: QR21.50 QR21.00 A correction to the mentioned levels is possible; a break below QR22.00 may trigger the sell. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  4. 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 12,623.93 12,446.54 12,504.32 12,540.02 12,597.80 12,655.58 12,691.28 12,749.06 12,149.70 12,926.11 12,992.29 Total Return 18,948.10 18,681.85 18,768.57 18,822.15 18,908.88 18,995.60 19,049.18 19,135.91 18,132.90 19,285.05 19,380.03 All Share 3,263.76 3,225.36 3,237.78 3,245.45 3,257.86 3,270.28 3,277.95 3,290.36 3,112.34 3,288.98 3,299.78 Al Rayan Islamic 4,471.13 4,388.00 4,412.18 4,427.13 4,451.32 4,475.50 4,490.45 4,514.64 4,095.56 4,357.19 4,372.36 Banks & Financials Services MARK 50.50 49.30 49.87 50.23 50.80 51.37 51.73 52.30 45.12 48.96 51.15 CBQK 70.00 69.27 69.65 69.88 70.27 70.65 70.88 71.27 67.87 70.33 69.19 DHBK 58.90 58.10 58.33 58.47 58.70 58.93 59.07 59.30 56.59 57.92 59.42 QIBK 109.20 107.13 108.24 108.93 110.03 111.14 111.83 112.93 102.36 107.48 104.11 QIIK 85.00 83.67 84.09 84.35 84.77 85.19 85.45 85.87 80.23 83.97 84.58 Insurance QATI 88.80 87.87 88.17 88.36 88.67 88.97 89.16 89.47 85.85 91.85 88.25 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 129.30 125.17 126.47 127.27 128.57 129.87 130.67 131.97 119.92 124.20 111.60 Industrials IQCD 155.00 153.33 153.91 154.26 154.83 155.41 155.76 156.33 164.26 178.04 179.97 QEWS 199.10 196.50 197.26 197.74 198.50 199.26 199.74 200.50 188.42 188.64 187.28 GISS 109.10 104.83 106.48 107.49 109.13 110.78 111.79 113.43 96.53 109.06 106.17 QIGD 40.35 38.52 39.05 39.38 39.92 40.45 40.78 41.32 39.83 46.26 53.40 Real Estate BRES 51.10 49.17 49.72 50.06 50.62 51.17 51.51 52.07 43.67 43.89 42.02 UDCD 25.15 24.62 24.86 25.02 25.27 25.51 25.67 25.92 23.97 25.88 26.28 ERES 17.00 15.89 16.24 16.46 16.80 17.15 17.37 17.71 15.20 17.31 20.75 MRDS 21.70 20.50 20.92 21.18 21.60 22.02 22.28 22.70 19.48 21.58 20.94 Telecommunication ORDS 114.50 113.70 114.16 114.44 114.90 115.36 115.64 116.10 116.30 121.61 129.39 VFQS 18.55 16.30 17.00 17.43 18.13 18.83 19.26 19.96 15.82 18.11 18.77 Transportation QGTS 24.50 23.67 23.95 24.13 24.42 24.70 24.88 25.17 23.03 23.65 23.70 QNNS 105.70 103.03 103.84 104.33 105.13 105.94 106.43 107.23 97.22 97.72 96.15 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
  5. 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  6. 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6 Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager HNWI Head of Sales Trading Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa