Daily technical trader

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Sunday, 23 November 2014

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Direction Tgt.

MARK 50.80 Flat 52.50

VFQS 18.92 Down 19.75

QSE Index

Price % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 13,846.01 -0.4 11.9

Resistance/Support (Daily)

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 14,000 14,350 14,600

Support 13,800 13,700 13,660

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The Index closed lower but still above the 13,700 level. The week ended on a slower note and the intraday closed below an important uptrend line. The previous may signal a weakness during the beginning of this week. In addition, the MACD Histogram is showing lower momentum, making a compelling argument that the index may retreat further to the 13,800 level. Traders await bullish signs to bet money on any potential rise in the horizon. Expected Target: 14,350 Target maybe reached only if the index breaks the 14,000 level again but on a sustained basis. Suggested Stop-loss: 13,700

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 20 Nov 14 19 Nov 14 %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 798.8 1,112.0 -28.2

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 750.7 751.9 -0.2

Volume (mn) 11.9 16.5 -27.9

Number of Trans. 7,956 9,033 -11.9

Companies Traded 42 43 -2.3

Market Breadth 16:24 29:11 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 20,651.20 -0.4 59.1

All Share Index 3,512.28 -0.3 60.4

Banks 3,504.48 0.0 63.2

Industrials 4,547.12 -0.6 54.8

Transportation 2,433.21 -1.1 68.4

Real Estate 2,795.53 -0.6 56.5

Insurance 4,108.32 -0.2 56.4

Telecoms 1,506.87 0.4 37.5

Consumer 7,773.09 0.1 74.5

Al Rayan Islamic 4,699.41 -1.0 65.4

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

IHGS 179.70 -10.0 99.2

GWCS 63.40 -3.8 81.0

MERS 225.60 -3.3 79.3

AKHI 55.00 -3.5 78.3

WDAM 70.00 -1.4 78.1

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30Min)



MARK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 50.80 -1.17 667,649

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 51.60 52.50 53.50

Support 50.40 49.70 49.00

Commentary

Overview: This leading Islamic bank has stabilized around the QR50.00 level for the past 5 weeks. The name is above its weekly SMAs. The MACD Histogram is showing strength both on the weekly and the daily time frames. The RSI on the weekly is stabilizing while the daily RSI is showing more strength. At this point, the bet is on a rebound of the support level to the next Fibonacci level of around QR52.50. Expected Target: QR52.50 A buying position is triggered if there is a price move above QR51.60. Suggested Stop-loss: QR50.40 A close below the mentioned price suggests a further retreat to the QR50.00 level.

MARK (Weekly)


MARK (Daily)



VFQS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 18.92 -0.42 754,009

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 19.08 19.75 20.20

Support 18.50 18.40 17.10

Commentary

Overview: Although VFQS is in a bearish leg; the name stabilized and now is bouncing off an important uptrend line. The MACD Histogram is showing strength upward. The RSI failed to reach its oversold area and has bounced from there. If the MACD breaks its signal line upward, then a positive move to the upside is probable. Expected Target: QR19.75 A sustained break above the QR19.08 for at least an hour should propel the name to the projected price target. Suggested Stop-loss: QR18.50 The name has consolidated above the suggested stop-loss level. Any break below the mentioned price will drag the stock down.

VFQS (Weekly)


VFQS (Daily)



Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 13,846.01 13,727.02 13,779.25 13,811.52 13,863.76 13,915.99 13,948.26 14,000.50 13,730.04 13,273.09 12,635.70

Total Return 20,651.20 20,473.73 20,551.63 20,599.76 20,677.67 20,755.57 20,803.70 20,881.61 20,478.22 19,796.22 18,704.59

All Share 3,512.28 3,482.15 3,494.85 3,502.70 3,515.39 3,528.09 3,535.94 3,548.63 3,470.45 3,357.11 3,195.69

Al Rayan Islamic 4,699.41 4,623.41 4,655.59 4,675.46 4,707.64 4,739.82 4,759.69 4,791.87 4,661.11 4,483.63 4,096.10

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 50.80 49.73 50.19 50.47 50.93 51.39 51.67 52.13 54.98 54.21 48.32

CBQK 75.50 73.03 73.99 74.58 75.53 76.49 77.08 78.03 71.37 69.05 66.85

DHBK 60.60 59.53 59.92 60.15 60.53 60.92 61.15 61.53 60.06 59.23 61.27

QIBK 109.00 107.00 108.15 108.85 110.00 111.15 111.85 113.00 115.97 107.64 94.39

QIIK 87.80 86.33 86.79 87.07 87.53 87.99 88.27 88.73 88.56 85.96 81.50

Insurance

QATI 97.50 96.97 97.12 97.21 97.37 97.52 97.61 97.77 98.45 91.44 79.90

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 137.00 118.80 124.76 128.44 134.40 140.36 144.04 150.00 129.47 111.71 91.13

Industrials

IQCD 195.50 192.57 193.98 194.85 196.27 197.68 198.55 199.97 189.77 183.34 183.55

QEWS 193.00 189.80 190.72 191.28 192.20 193.12 193.68 194.60 187.81 186.50 181.17

GISS 121.30 116.83 118.71 119.86 121.73 123.61 124.76 126.63 120.98 111.94 95.19

QIGD 46.80 45.67 46.13 46.41 46.87 47.33 47.61 48.07 56.91 57.11 56.10

Real Estate

BRES 52.20 49.67 50.66 51.27 52.27 53.26 53.87 54.87 41.10 40.79 37.99

UDCD 28.00 26.73 27.10 27.32 27.68 28.05 28.27 28.63 28.81 27.53 25.13

ERES 18.82 18.49 18.63 18.72 18.86 19.00 19.09 19.23 19.50 20.59 21.27

MRDS 23.02 22.73 22.87 22.96 23.09 23.23 23.32 23.45 23.99 21.43 18.54

Telecommunication

ORDS 120.80 118.27 118.99 119.44 120.17 120.89 121.34 122.07 129.14 131.94 139.07

VFQS 18.92 18.40 18.58 18.69 18.87 19.05 19.16 19.34 21.16 20.27 17.20

Transportation

QGTS 24.34 23.98 24.09 24.16 24.27 24.38 24.45 24.56 24.32 23.80 22.91

QNNS 102.00 100.33 101.29 101.88 102.83 103.79 104.38 105.33 95.55 94.35 94.18 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts

Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian

Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC

Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar

Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.

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