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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 02 February 2016

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price 1st

Target

QEWS 189.00 194.60

NLCS 11.75 11.57

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 9,547.83 0.70 8.2

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 9,600 9,800 10,000

Support 9,400 9,150 9,000

QSE Index Commentary

Overview: The QSE Index struggled to move in the same pace as it did in the sessions before. We can see that the Histogram’s movement backs the mentioned slow down; that might have an impact on the traders’ psychology to the negative. Expected Resistance Level: 9,600 Expected Support Level: 9,400

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 01 Feb 31 Jan %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 237.2 316.2 -25.0

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 509.4 507.1 0.5

Volume (mn) 8.8 11.4 -22.8

Number of Trans. 4,219 5,138 -17.9

Companies Traded 39 40 -2.5

Market Breadth 22:16 34:5 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 14,840.72 0.7 52.8

All Share Index 2,533.33 0.5 52.2

Banks 2,562.18 0.6 52.1

Industrials 2,848.33 0.0 51.2

Transportation 2,208.71 0.2 47.6

Real Estate 2,079.06 1.2 51.3

Insurance 4,047.28 -0.3 57.7

Telecoms 1,004.30 2.0 60.6

Consumer 5,251.64 0.1 49.5

Al Rayan Islamic 3,400.63 0.9 49.8

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

DBIS 12.79 -0.5 21.1

QCFS 28.15 0.0 27.6

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QEWS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 189.00 1.07 100,056

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 190.00 194.60 200.00

Support 184.00 178.00 175.00

Commentary

Overview: Positive momentum started to buildup. The name has been volatile in the past couple of weeks, but there is a possible chance for it to move up further. Expected Target Price: QR194.60 – QR200.00 A price breakaway above QR190.00 triggers the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR178.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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NLCS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 11.75 -1.26 133,616

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 12.00 12.25 12.37

Support 11.75 11.57 11.42

Commentary

Overview: Unlike most of the listed shares, NLCS’ price did not create a positive failure swing price move. In addition, we noticed the creation of an Evening Doji Star. We realize that the candle’s significance comes after a long trend, but this one took place after a bounce. Expected Target Price: QR11.57 – QR11.42 A price breach below QR11.75 triggers the sell recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 9,547.83 9,361.91 9,416.18 9,449.70 9,503.97 9,558.24 9,591.76 9,646.03 9,835.72 10,647.61 11,285.74

Total Return 14,840.72 14,551.74 14,636.09 14,688.20 14,772.55 14,856.90 14,909.01 14,993.36 15,288.21 16,550.19 17,541.03

All Share 2,533.33 2,492.54 2,504.70 2,512.22 2,524.39 2,536.55 2,544.07 2,556.24 2,621.19 2,834.87 3,010.41

Al Rayan Islamic 3,400.63 3,313.60 3,340.73 3,357.48 3,384.60 3,411.73 3,428.48 3,455.60 3,609.77 3,974.67 4,284.92

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 34.05 33.25 33.52 33.68 33.95 34.22 34.38 34.65 35.34 38.99 42.29

CBQK 41.00 40.60 40.79 40.91 41.10 41.29 41.41 41.60 43.74 49.01 52.41

DHBK 36.95 35.95 36.24 36.41 36.70 36.99 37.16 37.45 41.99 45.75 49.53

QIBK 92.00 85.47 87.34 88.49 90.37 92.24 93.39 95.27 102.12 109.67 108.33

QIIK 64.80 63.93 64.32 64.55 64.93 65.32 65.55 65.93 63.50 69.10 73.93

Insurance

QATI 83.10 81.70 82.46 82.94 83.70 84.46 84.94 85.70 81.34 87.36 90.88

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 88.70 83.77 86.44 88.09 90.77 93.44 95.09 97.77 110.94 136.60 156.43

Industrials

IQCD 105.00 102.53 103.34 103.83 104.63 105.44 105.93 106.73 102.43 112.22 124.94

QEWS 189.00 186.33 187.10 187.57 188.33 189.10 189.57 190.33 202.13 207.06 211.44

GISS 42.95 42.02 42.34 42.54 42.87 43.19 43.39 43.72 47.74 55.34 65.61

QIGD 28.00 26.73 27.23 27.54 28.03 28.53 28.84 29.33 34.22 39.79 45.17

Real Estate

BRES 32.85 31.82 32.24 32.50 32.92 33.34 33.60 34.02 37.38 40.60 45.01

UDCD 18.29 17.87 18.01 18.10 18.24 18.38 18.47 18.61 19.78 21.78 22.84

ERES 14.70 13.65 13.99 14.21 14.56 14.90 15.12 15.47 15.03 16.92 17.40

MRDS 11.73 11.06 11.28 11.42 11.64 11.86 12.00 12.22 13.51 14.85 16.55

Telecommunication

ORDS 81.00 78.07 78.91 79.43 80.27 81.11 81.63 82.47 72.59 74.05 80.30

VFQS 10.80 10.43 10.57 10.65 10.78 10.92 11.00 11.13 11.49 12.69 14.43

Transportation

QGTS 21.25 20.38 20.63 20.79 21.03 21.28 21.44 21.68 22.38 23.07 22.65

QNNS 87.10 86.83 86.99 87.08 87.23 87.39 87.48 87.63 92.83 95.41 96.66 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535

zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

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