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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Sunday, 08 March 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
WDAM 58.50 56.70
ERES 15.65 16.25
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 12,139.42 0.1 3.6
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 12,250 12,350 12,600
Support 12,100 12,000 11,800
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index dropped for another week on low volumes. It ended at the 12,139.42 level, losing 2.46% from the week before. Over the past week, the Index’s performance confirmed our expectation on the bearish attitude of the constituents. Technical indicators are pointing down and thus weakness is expected to continue till we reach the coming support level at 12,000. Expected Resistance Level: 12,350 Expected Support Level: 12,000
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 05 Mar 15 04 Mar 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 336.4 275.7 22.0
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 660.5 659.3 0.2
Volume (mn) 6.3 5.2 20.8
Number of Trans. 3,918 3,753 4.4
Companies Traded 43 41 4.9
Market Breadth 18:21 8:32 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,564.63 0.3 47.7
All Share Index 3,206.91 0.3 49.0
Banks 3,237.58 0.3 47.2
Industrials 4,021.32 0.5 53.1
Transportation 2,466.97 -0.4 61.0
Real Estate 2,411.85 0.8 46.2
Insurance 4,089.41 -0.9 60.0
Telecoms 1,411.47 -0.3 47.6
Consumer 7,173.41 -0.4 40.5
Al Rayan Islamic 4,373.90 -0.1 53.9
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
MCGS 153.00 0.5 71.8
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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WDAM
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 58.50 0.00 11,733
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 60.60 61.70 63.00
Support 58.00 56.70 56.50
Commentary
Overview: The name has been trading in a range for more than two months. The name is pointing down and could be heading to the base of that range. The base of the range is close to the medium-term uptrend. In addition, the price is trading below all the moving averages, which is a bearish sign. Expected Price Retreat: QR56.70 – QR56.40 To trigger the sell, the price has to be breach below QR58.00.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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ERES
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 15.65 1.29 456,009
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 15.80 16.25 16.50
Support 15.40 15.00 14.00
Commentary
Overview: The name stabilized above the QR15.00, where it reached the support level stemming from the downtrend line. A bounce could be forming but is not confirmed as yet. A break above QR15.80 is needed to breach away from the short-term downtrend line seen on the intraday chart. Expected Target Price: QR16.25 – QR16.50 The buy recommendation is conditioned by a sustainable break above QR15.80. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR15.40
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 12,139.42 12,023.53 12,065.71 12,091.78 12,133.97 12,176.15 12,202.22 12,244.41 12,235.53 12,675.46 12,961.88
Total Return 18,564.63 18,387.41 18,451.93 18,491.78 18,556.30 18,620.82 18,660.67 18,725.19 18,339.09 18,950.29 19,354.52
All Share 3,206.91 3,179.65 3,189.75 3,195.98 3,206.08 3,216.18 3,222.41 3,232.51 3,156.32 3,242.55 3,296.53
Al Rayan Islamic 4,373.90 4,347.39 4,358.13 4,364.76 4,375.51 4,386.25 4,392.88 4,403.63 4,205.94 4,305.10 4,387.33
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 45.00 44.53 44.80 44.97 45.23 45.50 45.67 45.93 46.23 47.63 51.11
CBQK 70.00 67.60 68.29 68.71 69.40 70.09 70.51 71.20 68.16 69.80 69.21
DHBK 53.00 51.80 52.33 52.67 53.20 53.73 54.07 54.60 57.35 57.51 58.81
QIBK 100.70 99.10 99.79 100.21 100.90 101.59 102.01 102.70 105.01 105.73 105.66
QIIK 86.00 84.13 84.67 85.00 85.53 86.07 86.40 86.93 82.84 83.30 84.70
Insurance
QATI 77.00 76.33 76.72 76.95 77.33 77.72 77.95 78.33 77.33 79.03 77.98
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 153.00 151.67 152.05 152.28 152.67 153.05 153.28 153.67 131.36 127.33 116.82
Industrials
IQCD 146.40 145.00 145.65 146.05 146.70 147.35 147.75 148.40 155.54 171.18 177.26
QEWS 190.10 185.77 187.52 188.61 190.37 192.12 193.21 194.97 192.03 189.22 188.09
GISS 94.00 92.27 92.80 93.13 93.67 94.20 94.53 95.07 99.07 104.75 106.89
QIGD 43.75 42.85 43.23 43.47 43.85 44.23 44.47 44.85 40.78 43.50 51.33
Real Estate
BRES 48.70 48.23 48.46 48.60 48.83 49.06 49.20 49.43 45.67 45.15 42.91
UDCD 24.32 24.13 24.18 24.22 24.28 24.33 24.37 24.43 24.12 25.04 26.19
ERES 15.65 15.29 15.40 15.47 15.58 15.69 15.76 15.87 15.50 16.75 19.23
MRDS 19.05 18.86 18.91 18.95 19.01 19.06 19.10 19.16 19.65 20.82 20.89
Telecommunication
ORDS 113.20 112.67 112.97 113.16 113.47 113.77 113.96 114.27 116.21 118.22 126.65
VFQS 17.70 17.53 17.61 17.66 17.73 17.81 17.86 17.93 16.38 17.46 18.77
Transportation
QGTS 24.80 24.07 24.30 24.44 24.67 24.90 25.04 25.27 23.82 23.66 23.74
QNNS 105.40 104.47 104.85 105.08 105.47 105.85 106.08 106.47 100.58 99.12 96.72 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.
