18 February Daily technical trader

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  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6

    Daily Technical Trader Qatar

    Wednesday, 18 February 2015

    Stocks Covered Today

    Ticker Price Target

    DHBK 57.60 56.60

    QIMD 49.10 47.80

    QSE Index

    Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

    Last 12,553.69 -0.4 5.8

    Resistance/Support

    Levels 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 12,600 12,800 12,900

    Support 12,350 12,250 100222

    QSE Index Commentary

    Overview: The QSE Index made a Double Top price formation. This formation is bearish in nature. This negative sentiment is supported by the technical indicators used and the previously created several Doji candlesticks on the daily chart. Our analysis reiterates the drop we expected earlier and thus, may reach the previously projected 12,350 level. Expected Resistance Level: 12,800 Expected Support Level: 12,350

    QSE Index (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    QE Summary

    Market Indicators 17 Feb 15 16 Feb 15 %Ch.

    Value Traded (QR mn) 628.1 437.0 43.7

    Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 678.9 683.1 -0.6

    Volume (mn) 14.5 9.7 49.5

    Number of Trans. 6,268 4,988 25.7

    Companies Traded 40 40 0.0

    Market Breadth 11:26 13:23

    QE Indices

    Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

    Total Return 18,842.68 -0.4 60.0

    All Share Index 3,250.34 -0.4 61.9

    Banks 3,265.94 -0.1 57.7

    Industrials 4,022.52 -0.3 57.1

    Transportation 2,468.22 0.0 69.7

    Real Estate 2,532.93 -1.1 62.8

    Insurance 4,084.80 0.2 69.2

    Telecoms 1,418.47 -1.5 51.4

    Consumer 7,493.96 -0.3 68.7

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,397.03 -0.6 64.2

    RSI 14 (Over Bought)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    MCGS 146.00 -1.4 77.1

    AHCS 18.60 -0.5 74.1

    QATI 93.70 0.0 73.9

    QIIK 88.10 0.6 72.1

    QGTS 25.10 0.4 71.8

    RSI 14 (Over Sold)

    Ticker Close 1D% RSI

    QSE Index (30min)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6

    DHBK

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 57.60 -0.35 295,000

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 59.00 60.00 61.80

    Support 56.60 55.60 54.20

    Commentary

    Overview: The bank created a Double Top price pattern. It is a reversal formation which has been confirmed with last sessions closing price. Technical indicators also confirm the bearish pattern; the MACD crossed its signal line and the RSI reached the neutral area. The 100SMA and 200SMA are both above the last price indicating bearishness. However, the 50SMA is below it and can act as a support. Our analysis indicates that the drop may reach QR56.60 once the condition is met. Expected Price Retreat: QR56.60 QR55.50 It is better to wait for a break below the QR57.60 to sell the name.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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    QIMD

    Price % Ch. Volume

    Last 49.10 -2.77 11,182

    Resistance/Support

    Levels (QR) 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    Resistance 50.00 50.70 52.50

    Support 49.10 47.80 46.30

    Commentary

    Overview: QIMD buyers may have reached a saturated buying stage and a correction could take place soon. The price action created a Bearish Harami candlestick (this happens when the body of the previous candlestick is inside the body of the candle before). On the daily chart, the MACD lost ground and the RSI tried to push above the overbought zone but could not maintain the level. As such, it started to drop. Expected Price Retreat: QR47.80 QR46.30 The correction could take place once the price breaks below QR49.10.

    (Daily)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

    (Hourly)

    Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6

    Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

    Ticker Close 3rd

    2nd

    1st

    Pivot 1st

    2nd

    3rd

    50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

    QSE Index 12,553.69 12,486.00 12,522.32 12,544.77 12,581.10 12,617.42 12,639.87 12,676.20 12,124.73 12,834.39 12,986.06

    Total Return 18,842.68 18,741.09 18,795.61 18,829.29 18,883.82 18,938.34 18,972.02 19,026.55 18,110.04 19,155.43 19,374.43

    All Share 3,250.34 3,234.31 3,242.82 3,248.08 3,256.58 3,265.09 3,270.35 3,278.85 3,111.35 3,270.39 3,298.58

    Al Rayan Islamic 4,397.03 4,367.05 4,383.93 4,394.37 4,411.25 4,428.13 4,438.57 4,455.45 4,106.69 4,334.77 4,377.84

    Banks & Financials Services

    MARK 48.90 48.10 48.33 48.47 48.70 48.93 49.07 49.30 45.45 48.50 51.14

    CBQK 69.40 67.47 68.04 68.39 68.97 69.54 69.89 70.47 67.68 70.12 69.20

    DHBK 57.60 57.27 57.42 57.51 57.67 57.82 57.91 58.07 56.57 57.68 59.20

    QIBK 104.20 102.33 103.40 104.06 105.13 106.20 106.86 107.93 103.06 106.86 104.75

    QIIK 88.10 86.83 87.37 87.70 88.23 88.77 89.10 89.63 80.82 83.66 84.63

    Insurance

    QATI 93.70 88.63 90.31 91.35 93.03 94.71 95.75 97.43 86.12 91.45 88.60

    Consumer Goods & Services

    MCGS 146.00 140.67 142.58 143.76 145.67 147.58 148.76 150.67 121.86 124.84 113.31

    Industrials

    IQCD 153.20 152.33 152.79 153.07 153.53 153.99 154.27 154.73 160.56 175.54 179.10

    QEWS 200.00 198.67 199.24 199.59 200.17 200.74 201.09 201.67 189.35 189.01 187.65

    GISS 102.00 99.33 100.48 101.19 102.33 103.48 104.19 105.33 97.04 107.87 106.63

    QIGD 41.10 40.23 40.73 41.04 41.53 42.03 42.34 42.83 39.54 45.05 52.62

    Real Estate

    BRES 48.50 47.73 47.98 48.14 48.38 48.63 48.79 49.03 43.96 44.26 42.33

    UDCD 24.20 23.88 23.99 24.06 24.17 24.28 24.35 24.46 23.88 25.58 26.28

    ERES 17.06 16.73 16.91 17.02 17.19 17.37 17.48 17.65 15.22 17.17 19.99

    MRDS 20.12 19.45 19.79 20.00 20.34 20.68 20.89 21.23 19.43 21.35 20.92

    Telecommunication

    ORDS 115.00 114.20 114.58 114.82 115.20 115.58 115.82 116.20 116.23 120.48 128.43

    VFQS 17.22 16.51 16.89 17.12 17.51 17.89 18.12 18.51 15.96 17.87 18.78

    Transportation

    QGTS 25.10 24.80 24.90 24.95 25.05 25.15 25.20 25.30 23.22 23.65 23.75

    QNNS 103.50 101.50 102.34 102.86 103.70 104.54 105.06 105.90 97.88 98.14 96.29 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

  • COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6

    Definitions:

    Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening

    and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is

    lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

    compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

    Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

    Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

    security price to head lower.

    SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus

    considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative

    price direction and potential support/resistance levels.

    Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

    a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

    RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

    use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

    considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

    Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

    shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

    Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

    levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and