15 February Daily technical trader

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  1. 1. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6 Daily Technical Trader Qatar Sunday, 15 February 2015 Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target GWCS 60.00 58.30 ERES 17.12 16.45 QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn) Last 12,607.60 -0.6 30.2 Resistance/Support Levels 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 12,800 12,900 13,000 Support 12,600 12,350 12,250 QSE Index Commentary Overview: The Index made a Tweezers Top candlesticks bearish formation. This negative attitude was demonstrated by Thursdays weak performance. Technical indicators became more bearish. The MACD is losing momentum on both time frames. As a result, this weakness could continue in the coming sessions. The upcoming resistance stays at 12,800 while the soft resistance level at 12,600 is expected to be breached downward. Expected Resistance Level: 12,800 Expected Support Level: 12,350 QSE Index (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research QE Summary Market Indicators 12 Feb 15 11 Feb 15 %Ch. Value Traded (QR mn) 552.1 985.8 -44.0 Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 681.8 685.9 -0.6 Volume (mn) 17.3 33.4 -48.2 Number of Trans. 6,683 9,957 -32.9 Companies Traded 42 41 2.4 Market Breadth 9:30 19:20 QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI Total Return 18,923.59 -0.6 64.1 All Share Index 3,257.70 -0.7 65.1 Banks 3,278.95 -0.3 61.6 Industrials 4,028.51 -0.7 58.1 Transportation 2,481.04 -0.3 73.7 Real Estate 2,546.44 -2.2 67.3 Insurance 3,960.86 -1.4 61.2 Telecoms 1,452.71 0.3 62.5 Consumer 7,422.47 -0.4 66.9 Al Rayan Islamic 4,408.60 -0.7 66.8 RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI AHCS 18.35 -1.1 75.3 MCGS 136.40 0.3 72.8 QGTS 25.05 -0.6 71.9 QGMD 11.20 1.4 71.9 MERS 216.40 -0.2 70.8 RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI QSE Index (30min) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  2. 2. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 2 of 6 GWCS Price % Ch. Volume Last 60.00 0.00 40,858 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 61.40 63.00 67.40 Support 59.50 58.30 56.30 Commentary Overview: The name created three Doji candlesticks over the past week. These candlesticks have bearish implications once confirmed. The confirmation comes with a break below QR59.40. Thus, we recommend a sell on the name once it breaches QR59.40 for an expected correction down to QR58.30 and possibly to QR56.00. Expected Price Retreat: QR58.30 QR56.00 Wait for a break below QR59.40 to confirm the bearishness of the price formation. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  3. 3. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 3 of 6 ERES Price % Ch. Volume Last 17.12 -4.36 3,950,183 Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Resistance 17.70 18.00 18.50 Support 16.90 16.45 15.80 Commentary Overview: The name created a bearish Doji candlestick and the negative implication was confirmed in last Thursdays close. The MACDs Histogram is showing weakness on the name while the RSI is breaking below the overbought area, suggesting the downward move could continue further. The name is expected to correct further down to the QR16.45 level. Expected Price Retreat: QR16.45 QR15.80 Sell when the name breaks below QR16.90 to further confirm the expected correction. (Daily) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly) Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
  4. 4. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 4 of 6 Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3 rd 2 nd 1 st Pivot 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA QSE Index 12,607.60 12,521.46 12,556.65 12,578.39 12,613.58 12,648.77 12,670.51 12,705.70 12,130.04 12,882.40 12,990.68 Total Return 18,923.59 18,794.30 18,847.12 18,879.75 18,932.56 18,985.38 19,018.01 19,070.82 18,110.78 19,223.45 19,379.48 All Share 3,257.70 3,236.45 3,245.67 3,251.37 3,260.59 3,269.81 3,275.51 3,284.73 3,110.27 3,280.19 3,299.50 Al Rayan Islamic 4,408.60 4,357.76 4,378.33 4,391.03 4,411.60 4,432.17 4,444.87 4,465.44 4,100.07 4,346.83 4,375.56 Banks & Financials Services MARK 49.00 48.10 48.39 48.56 48.85 49.14 49.31 49.60 45.26 48.74 51.14 CBQK 70.30 69.50 69.81 69.99 70.30 70.61 70.79 71.10 67.78 70.24 69.21 DHBK 58.20 57.60 57.79 57.91 58.10 58.29 58.41 58.60 56.54 57.81 59.35 QIBK 109.60 108.93 109.20 109.37 109.63 109.90 110.07 110.33 102.82 107.27 104.48 QIIK 87.00 84.93 85.54 85.92 86.53 87.14 87.52 88.13 80.51 83.85 84.61 Insurance QATI 90.10 89.57 89.87 90.06 90.37 90.67 90.86 91.17 85.94 91.57 88.46 Consumer Goods & Services MCGS 136.40 133.20 134.12 134.68 135.60 136.52 137.08 138.00 120.53 124.37 112.42 Industrials IQCD 152.50 150.17 150.93 151.40 152.17 152.93 153.40 154.17 162.31 176.82 179.56 QEWS 199.00 194.73 196.11 196.96 198.33 199.71 200.56 201.93 188.95 188.86 187.51 GISS 106.00 103.87 104.75 105.29 106.17 107.05 107.59 108.47 96.76 108.53 106.42 QIGD 40.45 38.88 39.48 39.84 40.43 41.03 41.39 41.98 39.64 45.65 53.00 Real Estate BRES 48.35 46.72 47.25 47.58 48.12 48.65 48.98 49.52 43.78 44.07 42.18 UDCD 24.83 23.92 24.21 24.39 24.68 24.97 25.15 25.44 23.94 25.74 26.29 ERES 17.12 16.45 16.76 16.94 17.24 17.55 17.73 18.03 15.21 17.24 20.44 MRDS 20.79 20.26 20.45 20.57 20.76 20.95 21.07 21.26 19.47 21.47 20.93 Telecommunication ORDS 116.00 114.67 115.16 115.47 115.97 116.46 116.77 117.27 116.29 121.10 128.90 VFQS 18.45 17.75 18.09 18.31 18.65 18.99 19.21 19.55 15.90 18.00 18.78 Transportation QGTS 25.05 24.76 24.87 24.94 25.05 25.16 25.23 25.34 23.11 23.65 23.73 QNNS 104.90 101.97 102.92 103.51 104.47 105.42 106.01 106.97 97.50 97.93 96.25 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
  5. 5. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 5 of 6 Definitions: Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices. Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher. Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower. SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels. Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a securitys price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold. Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a securitys price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc. Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement. Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
  6. 6. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 6 of 6 Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager HNWI Head of Sales Trading Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (QNBFS) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (QNB). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qa