Download pdf - Infant mortality rate in ASEAN Countries

Will the ASEAN Countries Reach the MDGs Target for Infant Mortality

Rate?

bySaad Lebaz

Abdul Hadi Ilman

Summary

• Background• Methods• Findings

- Only one country will meet the MDG target by 2015

- All countries will reach the target by 2050• Conclusion

IMR over the World (2011)

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IMR for ASEAN Countries (2011)

2.2

6.8 7.3

11.8

18.6

24.126.7

35.5

42.4

49.6

56

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Singapore BruneiDarussalam

Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Cambodia Myanmar Timor-Leste Lao PDR

RESULT AND ANALYSIS

Period 1: 1960-1973y = 1111.1x-0.212

R² = 0.8962

Period 2: 1974-2011y = 6.67E+09x-1.224

R² = 0.9913

5.00

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IMR

Cummulative Birth

Malaysia

Period 1: 1960-1982y = 4222x-0.209

R² = 0.8 Period 2: 1983-2011y = 2.13E+13x-1.417

R² = 0.98

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Cummulative Birth

Indonesia

Total Periody = 3619.8x-0.258

R² = 0.7095

Period 1: 1960-1983y = 177.25x-0.07

R² = 0.9619Period 2: 1984-2011y = 4.65E+07x-0.787

R² = 0.9897

10.00

100.00

800,000 8,000,000 80,000,000

IMR

Cummulative Birth

Philippines

Period 1: 1960-1972y = 514.33x-0.234

R² = 0.8932

Period 2: 1973-2011y = 2.75E+12x-1.891

R² = 0.9804 1.00

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IMR

Cummulative Birth

Singapore

Period 1: 1960-1980y = 4578.7x-0.257

R² = 0.8366Period 2: 1981-2011

y = 6E+16x-2.017

R² = 0.972 10.00

100.00

1,000.00

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IMR

Cummulative Birth

Thailand

Period 1: 1960-1986y = 1395.4x-0.196

R² = 0.9334 Period 2: 1987-2011y = 5E+12x-1.444

R² = 0.9871 10.00

100.00

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IMR

Cummulative Birth

Vietnam

The Equations and Slopes

CountryClassical Experience Equation

Kinked year

Kinked Experience EquationModel

Selectionln a1 b2 b2 - b1 R2 PR2

(=2b2)b R2 PR (=2b)

Indonesia -0.48**0.76 0.72 1983 3.63

-1.42** -1.21**0.990 0.37 Kinked

(0.08) (0.05) (0.07)

Malaysia -0.72**0.86 0.61 1974 3.05

-1.22** -1.01**0.995 0.43 Kinked

(0.10) (0.02) (0.05)

Philippines -0.26**0.71 0.84 1984 2.25

-0.79** -0.72**0.996 0.58 Kinked

(0.04) (0.01) (0.02)

Singapore -1.02**0.81 0.49 1973 2.71

-1.89** -1.66**0.991 0.27 Kinked

(0.17) (0.05) (0.07)

Thailand -0.64**0.74 0.64 1981 3.66

-2.02** -1.76**0.985 0.25 Kinked

(0.11) (0.09) (0.11)

Vietnam -0.40**0.77 0.76 1987 3.14

-1.44** -1.25**0.992 0.37 Kinked

(0.06) (0.05) (0.06)

For example: 72% slope means that 28% rate resulting in 28% reduction of IMR upon doubling of cumulative new births

Classical vs Kinked Experience Curve Slope

71.60%

60.78%

83.64%

49.48%

64.00%

75.95%

37.44%

42.81%

57.94%

26.95%24.71%

36.75%

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Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Classical Kinked

Percentage Reduction (1990-2015)

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US Census Our Projection

MDG Goal

Percentage Reduction of IMR (1990-2015)

Country 19902015 % reduction

US Census Our Projection US Census Our Projection

A B C 1 - (B/A) 1 - (C/A)

Indonesia 61.70 24.30 25.69 60.62% 58.36%

Malaysia 14.30 13.30 5.72 6.99% 59.97%

Philippines 41.00 17.10 22.19 58.29% 45.88%

Singapore 6.10 2.50 1.82 59.02% 70.18%

Thailand 31.10 14.50 11.75 53.38% 62.22%

Vietnam 36.40 18.40 16.43 49.45% 54.87%

Expected Year to Meet the MDG Target

Country

IMR 2015 Projection Expected Year to Meet the Target

1990 Target Ours US CensusOurs US Census

Year IMR Year IMR

Indonesia 61.70 20.57 25.69 24.30 2026 20.41 2020 20.40

Malaysia 14.30 4.77 5.72 13.30 2022 4.75 > 2050

Philippines 41.00 13.67 22.19 17.10 2049 13.61 2023 13.50

Singapore 6.10 2.03 1.82 2.50 2012 2.00 2026 2.00

Thailand 31.10 10.37 11.75 14.50 2020 10.30 2027 10.20

Vietnam 36.40 12.13 16.43 18.40 2031 11.96 2028 12.10

*Actual IMR for Singapore in 2012 is 2.30, while the target should be 2.03

Malaysian’s Case

y = 507980x-0.637

R² = 0.8737

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IMR

Cummulative Birth

Projection for 2050

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US Census Our Projection

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Conclusions

1. The kinked experience curve model is a more suitable methodology than the classical for the projection of IMR in ASEAN countries All countries are showing the declining trend in a specific of time The progress ratio are showing the steep slope (range from 25% to 58%)

2. From 6 ASEAN countries, only one is expected to meet the MDG target by 2015, and by 2050 all of them will reach the target.

3. We have mix conclusion about the relative differences of our projection and US Census’s projection