Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016

7/24/2019 Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016

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DisruptionsEruptions

CorruptionsMichael P Totten

Presentation CYA, Jan. 28, 2016


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Dedicated to the Inspirations

Hiliary Green1991-2013

Brenna Lavelle2003 -

elaide !tout-Green"au#201$ -

t&o 'randdau'hters delaide and Brenna( and )Goddau'hter*


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US Geological Sure!, "olcanoes, htt#s$%%olcanoes.usgs.go%ha&ar's%gas%cli(ate.#h#

Eruptions

Hu#ans release C+2e#issions every 10 hourse,ual to the ount .inatu"o volcanic eruption(

.hilippines( 1991B/ 90(000 )eruptions* in 21stCentury

33 %rillion per year in 200 'lo"al

&ar#in' costs to the &orld due 4ustto /! e#issions
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.phphttps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.phphttps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.phphttps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.phphttps://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php


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alities 6 De7ned as ).rivate Gain( .u"li

Eruptions

C+!% to LI8E! /!% I: /!;


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Corruptions.olitical

.o&er

Corporate

Greed

edia Lies

Disin@or#atio


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CorruptionsGlo"al Fossil Fuel !u"sidies 2011-20

IF %rillionyr ssess#ent ay 201


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Disruptions


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In@or#ation %echnolo'ies (of all kinds)

double their power (price performance,capacity, bandwidth) every year --

La& o@ cceleratin' eturns

L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t

L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t

Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw

D y n a m i c R A M M e m o r y ! a l f " i t c h # $ e a t u r e % i & e ' y e a r s

D y n a m i c R A M M e m o r y ( b i t s p e r d o l l a r ) * ' y e a r s

A v e r a + e , r a n s i s t o r " r i c e * - y e a r s

M i c r o p r o c e s s o r . o s t p e r , r a n s i s t o r . y c l e * * y e a r s

, o t a l / i t s % h i p p e d * * y e a r s

" r o c e s s o r " e r f o r m a n c e i n M 0 " % * 1 y e a r s

, r a n s i s t o r s i n 0 n t e l M i c r o p r o c e s s o r s 2 3 y e a r s

M i c r o p r o c e s s o r . l o c k % p e e d 2 4 y e a r s


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La& o@ cceleratin' eturns5very form of co##unications technolo'y is

doublin+ price-performance, bandwidth,capacity every *2 months

M o o r e )s *+ a *i s *o n l ! *o n e *e - a ( # l e

- # o n e n t i a l *G r o t h *o / *C o ( # u t in g */ o r *1 1 0 *Y e a r s *M o o r e s *+ a * a s *t h e * / i/ t h , *n o t *t h e */ i r s t ,*

# a r a ' i g ( *t o * r i n g *e - # o n e n t i a l*g r o t h *i n *c o ( # u t i n g

Y e a r

L o g a r i t h m i c +P l o t

Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw




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La& o@ cceleratin' eturnsiniaturiation;

another e6ponential trend

http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us?language=en https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnyQWr8hk0A

ay Jur&eilE5ponential Finance

uly( 201$

ireless s#artsensor net&orAs

%rillion 8alua"le!#artphone

::+ technolo'yen'ineerin' @'


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La& o@ cceleratin' eturnsC+lla"orative Intelli'enceInnovation

:et&orAs =C+I:s>another e6ponential trendD iA i p e d i a ( th e & o r ld Ks l a r ' e s t a n d @ a s t e s t ' r o & i n 'e n c y c l o p e d i a ( p r e # ie r e 5 a # p l e o @ a n o p e n s o u r c eC + I: to d a te I t i s o n e o @ th e to p to d a i l yv i s i te d I n t e r n e t s i te s i n t h e & o r ld = # o n th l yr e a d e r s h ip o @ L 0 0 # i l l i o n & o r ld & id e >

3 $ # i l l i o n @ r e e u s a " le a r ti c l e s i n 2 M M l a n ' u a ' e sth a t h a v e " e e n & r i tte n " y o v e r 0 # i l l i o nr e ' i s t e r e d u s e r s a n d n u # e r o u s a n o n y # o u sc o n tr i" u to r s & o r ld & id e

1 (0 0 0 v o lu # e s e , u i v a le n t to E n c y c l o p e d i aB r ita n n i c a

1 0 0 # i l l io n h o u r s to c r e a te D iA i p e d ia o v e r th e7 r s t d e c a d e B y c o # p a r i s o n ( # e r ic a n s s p e n d1 3 2 # i l l io n h o u r s e a c h d a y o n F a c e " o o A = $ 3 0# i l l i o n h o u r s e a c h d a y & o r ld & id e > a n d # e r i c a n s & a tc h 1 0 0 # i l l i o n h o u r s o @ % 8 a d se v e r y & e e A e n d

% h e r e a re th o u s a n d s o @ o p e n s o u r c e C + I: sc u r r e n t l y o p e r a t in '


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Ray Kurzweil, Kurzweilai.net, presentation at Google, 2009

20thCenturyOrganizations

21stCenturyOrganizations

l i i l d d i i


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Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, Andreesen-Horowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013

(Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP,MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor


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.ersonal .ocAet!uperCo#puters

!uperCo#puter:et&orAers

Hu#an Jno&led'e

Capital

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http://www.statista.com/statistics/!!"##/forecast$of$mo%ile$app$downloads/

.. /se Gro&in' E5ponentially#illions

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aAin' !#arter Inte'rated !ectorsGridsN8ehiclesNBuildin'sNIndustries

The Next Industrial Revolution


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S o u r c e : I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n e r g y A g e n c y , E n e r g y T e c h n o l o g y P e r s p e c t i v e s , 2 0 0 8 , p . 3 6 6 . T h e i g u r e i s ! a s e " o n # a t i o n a l

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In t h e / ! ( c it ie s a n d r e sid e n c e s c o v e r < # ill io n h e c t a r e s

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/!SindS.o&erSLC+ES..SinS2013S2TAhSGlo"alSindS.o&erSLC+ESinS2013S


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Entire !tate o@ Cali@Co##unity Colle'e

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IE; orld needs $M %ILLI+: ininvest#ent

to #eet its ener'y needs to 203HU 23 %ILLI+: @or @ossil@uels VV

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Jacoson, Mar4 an' Mar4 Belucchi et al., 100 clean an' reneale in', ater, an' sunlight 99S* allsectorenerg! roa'(a#s /or the 0 Unite' States, Journal o/ nerg! : niron(ental Science, Ma! 13, 201, o!alSociet! o/ Che(istr!, htt#s$%%e.stan/or'.e'u%grou#%e/(h%Dacoson%Articles%E%susenerg!20


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&&&'o100renet

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http://thesolutionsproject.org/http://thesolutionsproject.org/


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http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.htmlhttp://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html


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The Solutions ProDect,

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http://thesolutionsproject.org/infographic/%23ca


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Mar4 Jacoson, PoeringCountries, States, an' the9orl' 9ith 9in', 9ater, an'Sunlight, AAAS AnnualMeeting, Feruar! 1, 201=,

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apid( aWorda"le ener'y trans@or#ation

possi"le( study says25 January 2016

A high-resolution map based on NOAA weather datashowing one measure of wind energy potential across

the United States in 2012. Credit: Chris Clack/CIRES

Nature Climate Change.

Although improvements in wind and solargeneration have continued to ratchet down the cost

of producingrenewable energy, these energy

resources are inherently intermittent. As a result,

utilities have invested in surplus generation

capacity to back up renewable energy generation

with natural gas-fired generators and other

reserves.

"In the future, they may not need to," said co-lead

author Christopher Clack, a physicist and

mathematician with the Cooperative Institute for

Research in Environmental Sciences at the

University of Colorado Boulder.


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al !olar .8 Installations 're& 3? in 2 to 321 G "y end o@ 201

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:e& #ap sho&s ho& taller &ind tur"ines can help unlocA &indSst ti l i ll 0 t t i ll i th th t / !


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htt#$%%energ!.go%eere%articles%unloc4ingournationsin'

potential in all 0 states( especially in the southeastern /!
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!ilicon !olar Cells


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La"-e[ciency Z20 ? 2 ?

share overall.8 #arAet in

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Crystal structure o@CH3:H3."O3perovsAites

=OI( Br andor Cl> %he#ethyla##oniu# cation

.erovsAite !olar Cells!olar cell e[ciencies o@ devices usin' these #aterials

increased

@ro# 3M? in 2009 to 210? in 201

%hin Fil# !olar Cells


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2013Copper Indiu# Galliu#

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! ! E % spps @or!purrin'!olar and

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Included in Each 8alue o@ !olarEner'y Cost-Bene7t nalysisY

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=* At the sa(e ti(e, tenants ill see cost saings

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htt#s$%%ilsr.org%congressgetsrenealeta-cre'ite-tensionright% John Farrell, Jan 2, 2016
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2012( ChinaKs solarener'y output

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En 2000, gloal installe' solar P" ca#acit! #ale' inco(#arison to to'a!)s Vgures. sti(ates #ut the totalinstalle' P" ca#acit! in 2000 at aroun' 1.=G9. To #utthis Vgure in #ers#ectie, China alone installe' tenti(es this a(ount o/ solar P" in Dust 201=.htt#s$%%charlieonenerg!.or'#ress.co(%201%12%03%solaran'(ooresla %, Bece(er 3, 201%

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A 20/ol' increase in oRgri' #oer connections is a(ong the ai(s o/ a#lan to achiee uniersal energ! access in A/rica ! 202. The #lan,announce' ! the A/rican Beelo#(ent ;an4 AF;*, enisages 160 G9o/ ne gri'connecte' generation ca#acit! an' 3 (illion ne oRgri'#oer connections. There is 10,000 G9 o/ solar #otential on the A/ricancontinent accor'ing to the AF;.

USZ600 illion a !ear is nee'e', co(#are' ith the USZ22 illionineste' in the sector in 201=. Accor'ing to the AF; Presi'ent, XE/ A/ricaere to increase its annual s#en'ing on energ! /ro( 0.= o/ GBP to


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F & 'ind and 'ater (ower )echnologies *ffice eere.energy.go+

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B5)s nerg! En/or(ation A'(inistration EA*/orecaststhat 2 to =82 Gigaatts G9* o/ gas generation ill e a''e' ! 20=0dan a''itional inest(ent o/ Z2


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escalation rates an'%orti(eo/'elier! /actors

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Documents

Totten Zero Emissions Shift - Slides Assemble 01-2016