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SURINAME GREEN The Nation’s Global BRAND Economic Well-being World Tourism hub Sustainable exports Global Solutions

suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

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Page 1: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

SURINAME

GREEN

The Nation’s

Global BRAND

Economic Well-being

World Tourism hub

Sustainable exports

Global Solutions

Page 2: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

GREEN

ECONOMICS

Essential in

Domestic and

Global Trade

Page 3: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

WHY? WHAT? HOW?

Page 4: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Mass

Poverty

Collapsing

Ecosystems

Climate

disasters

Mass

Extinction

WHY?

Page 5: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Humans release as much CO2 every 48 hours as the

1991 Mount Pinatubo Volcanic eruption

Page 6: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Reasons for Action

6 C rise ―would cause a mass

extinction of almost all life and

probably reduce humanity to a few

struggling groups of embattled

survivors clinging to life near the

poles.―

Few species could adapt in time to

the abruptness of the transition.

"With the tropics too hot to grow

crops, and the sub-tropics too dry,

billions of people would find

themselves in areas of the planet

which are essentially uninhabitable."

I Risks to Unique & Threatened systems

II Risks from Extreme Climate Events

III Distribution of Impacts

IV Aggregate Impacts

V Risks from Future Large-Scale Discontinuities

Business as Usual

Page 7: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper

4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf

Latin America & Caribbean region:

Exposed population to 5 meter Sea Level Rise

Rate of sea level rise

proportional to warming

Page 8: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

7% Suriname population exposed to

1 meter Sea Level Rise

Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper

4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf

Page 9: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

30% Suriname population exposed to

3 meter Sea Level Rise

Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper

4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf

Page 10: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

55% Suriname population exposed to

5 meter Sea Level Rise

Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper

4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf

Page 11: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

SU

RIN

AM

E

Page 12: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

35%

GD

P Im

pa

cte

d @

5 m

SL

R

55%

Po

pu

latio

n Im

pacte

d

% Impact Agriculture% Impact GDP % Impact Population

SURINAMESURINAME

SU

RIN

AM

E

23% impacted

Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper

4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf

Page 13: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

TIPPING POINT Amazon Dieback

Coinciding ENSO & North Atlantic warming

Drought,

Wildfires,

Shift to

Savannah

Lenton, T. et al. 2008. Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings National Academy of Sciences US, 1786–1793,

February 12, 2008, vol. 105, no. 6, www.pnas.org/

Page 14: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Amazon 2005 -- Brazil’s Worst Drought in 100 years

Page 15: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Lenton, T. et al. 2008. Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings National Academy of Sciences US, 1786–1793, February 12, 2008, vol. 105,

no. 6, www.pnas.org/

DOZEN TIPPING POINTS

Accelerating Massive Emissions &

Catastrophic Collapse

Page 16: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.

Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

???

Page 17: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

100 yr Global Economic Growth (GWP) compared with Today

Page 18: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10
Page 19: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG EmissionsToward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Toward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions

Page 20: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Buildings

Utilities

WHAT?

Mobility

Products

Page 21: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

Page 22: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

20

per

cen

t

burning and clearing tropical forests accounts for 15-20% of global GHG emissions — more than all the world’s cars, trucks, ships, planes, and trains

combined

Page 23: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101

Year

Bill

ion

$

Cumulative Energy Costs over a century

$1400 Trillion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101

Years

Te

raW

att

-ye

ars

pe

r y

ea

r (T

Wy

r)

Cumulative consumption 100 yrs & Damages

2600 TW-yrs cumulative carbon fuels

>> $1200Trillion

Climate damages

Additional costs?

• Price Volatility from rapid global

demand

• Oil wars

• Disruption of supplies

• Price Shocks from weather-

triggered disasters

• Oil spills, toxic contamination,

hazardous wastes, radioactive

waste long-term disposal

• Acid rain and urban smog health

impacts on people and food

systems

• Lost opportunities

• TIPPING POINTS

• IRREVERSIBLE DISRUPTIONS

Equal to 28 years at today’s $50 trillion GWP

ADDITIONAL

COSTS?

Page 24: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the

incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for

developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or

about half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Breakdown by abatement type

• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture)

• 6 Gt energy efficiency

•4 Gt low-carbon energy supply

Page 25: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

CCS REDD

Geological storage (CCS) vs Ecological storage (REDD)

Carbon Mitigation Cost

U.S. fossil Electricity CO2

mitigation cost annually (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)

~$100 billion~3 ¢ per kWh

~$18 billion~0.5 ¢ per kWh

$ per ton CO2

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation (REDD)

Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

0

Page 26: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions

Tropical Deforestation 2007 13 million hectares burned7 billion tons CO2 emissions

$7.50 per ton CO21/2 cent per kWh

$18 billion/yr REDD tradePoverty reduction

Prevent Species loss

A win-win-win outcome

A win-win-win outcome

Page 27: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

By

20

20

By protecting

forests we can

provide an effective

bridge to a low-

carbon economy.

forest + land use

$30 billion

Potential carbon market

project investment

(2020)

$150 billion

investing in nature is a cost effective + immediate solution

Page 28: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

$4 million to protect the Tayna and

Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in

eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation

area in Peru.

Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of

CO2 from being released into the

atmosphere.

Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity

Carbon Standards.

Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date

Page 29: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success

Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become

climate positive and revenue positive

Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green PowerEcosystem

Protection

Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS

Page 30: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

1) RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCYPursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous

improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary

benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water &

resources)

2) PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS

Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio

that deliver triple benefits (climate protection,

biodiversity preservation, and promotion of

community sustainable development)

3) ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELSSelect only verifiable ‘green power/fuel’ that is both

climate-friendly and biodiversity friendly

PORTFOLIOS of Best Policies

Page 31: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Green Economics is achieving

both Zero Net GHG emissions

AND Zero Net Ecological

Footprints

Ewing B. et al. 2009. The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2009. Global Footprint Network, www.footprintnetwork.org/

Page 32: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Ecological Footprint by Country, 2006

Diversity of Portfolios of Shrink, Green & Offset Needed

for Domestic Markets and Global Trade

biocapacity

Page 33: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Ewing B., S. Goldfinger, A. Oursler, A. Reed, D. Moore, and M. Wackernagel. 2009. The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2009. Oakland:

Global Footprint Network., www.footprintnetwork.org/.

Footprint

exceeds

biocapacity

Why USA and China Importing Resources

Page 34: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

China ecological footprint

Ecological debt

Ecological reserve

Ecological footprint

biocapacity

Page 35: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

GREEN

ECONOMY

direction is

key

ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

Page 36: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

1. Economically affordable

2. Safe

3. Clean

4. Risk is low and manageable

5. Resilient and flexible

6. Ecologically sustainable

7. Environmentally benign

8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically

9. Rebounds easily/swiftly from failures

10.Endogenous learning capacity

11.Robust experience curve for

reducing negative externalities and

amplifying positive externalities

12.Uninteresting target for malicious

disruption

Desirable attributes

Including poorest and cash-strapped?

Over the entire life cycle?

Through the entire lifespan?

From financial and price volatility?

To volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?

No adverse impacts on biodiversity?

Maintains air, water, soil quality?

Adaptable to abrupt surprises/crises?

Low recovery cost and lost time?

Intrinsic new productivity opportunities?

Scalable innovation possibilities?

Off the radar of terrorists, military planners?

Dozen Criteria of Green Energy Systems

Page 37: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste

power

Geo-

thermal

Nat

gas

Bio-

fuels

Oil

imports

Coal

CCS

nuclearTar

sand

Oil

shale

Coal to

liquids

Coal

no

CCS

Promote

CHP +

biowastes

Economically Affordable

Safe

Clean

Secure

Resilient & flexible

Ecologically sustainable

Environmentally benign

Fails gracefully, not catastro

Rebounds easily from failures

Endogenous learning capacity

Robust experience curves

Uninteresting military target

Delphi Scoring of Green Energy

Technology by 12 Criteria

Page 38: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

ηeta

SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation

Universal symbol for Efficiency

Page 39: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable

90% cost savings

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS

Page 40: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Solar Fusion Waste ARE Earth Nutrients –

Power in the Photon Bit stream

Page 41: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –

1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere

worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never

failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility

afflicting every energy and power source used in driving

economic activity

Page 42: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Earth receives more solar energy every 90 minutes than humanity consumes all year

Page 43: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.

100% of current U.S. power demand can be met simply by

applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs,

parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and

in other dual-use scenarios.

Urban solar would not have to appropriate a single hectare

of new land to make PV the nation’s primary energy source!

Page 44: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

MW

Compared to:Wind power 121,000 MW [158,000 in 2009]Nuclear power 350,000 MWHydro power 770,000 MWNatural Gas power 1 million MWCoal power 2 million MW

Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008

40% annual growth rateDoubling <24 months

2009

20GW

Page 45: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Eric Wesoff, Milestone: 10 Gigawatts of PV in 2010, Greentech Media, June 9, 2010, www.greentechmedia.com/, citing chart by

Shayle Kann.

Market Share Global PV Demand 2009-2013

Page 46: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,

[email protected] , http://Solar.gwu.edu/

Page 47: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 2010. Solar Photovoltaic Industry 2010 global outlook, February 8, 2010. ASP= Average Selling Price

Solar PV module ASP and cost outlook through 2010

(c-Si and CdTe)

Page 48: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis

Solar power beats thermal plants within their

construction lead time—at zero carbon price

Page 49: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for the city of Osnabroeck.

GIS Mapping the Solar

Potential of Rooftops

Page 50: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

GIS Mapping the Solar

Potential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,

WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century

Page 51: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

SunSlate Building-Integrated

Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

Material

Replaced

Economic

MeasureBeijing Shanghai

Polished

Stone

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$18,586

2.33

1

+$14,237

2.14

1

Aluminum

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$15,373

1.89

2

+$11,024

1.70

2

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) &

Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin

Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai

(assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Economics of Commercial BIPV

Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Page 52: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials

BIPV is so economically attractive because it

captures both energy savings and savings from

displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:

Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Economics of Commercial BIPV

Page 53: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing

Page 54: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Solar kWh per square meter

JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DECYEAR AVG (kWh/day

per m2)

YEAR TOTAL (kWh/yr per

m2)

30 yr TOTAL (kWh per m2)

Paramaribo, Suriname (Latitude 05º 49'

N Longitude 55º 09' W)

4.1 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.5 5.0 1821 54,641

@ 10% PV eff m2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 182 5,464

@ 50% PV eff m2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.5 911 27,320

10%eff Delivered Cost $0.22 per kWh

$ 40 $ 1,202

10%eff Delivered Cost $0.14 per kWh

$ 25 $ 765

Suriname solar levels

Page 55: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Suriname Urban Solar

Potentialarea

(km2)

million

m2

solar

kWh per

m2/year

Paramaribo

District total

solar (million

kWh per yr)

Paramaribo

District electric

consumption

(million kWh per

year)

10% eff solar

pv panel

(kWh per

yr/m2)

Solar PV panels

for 100%

Paramaribo

District electricity

(millions m2)

%

Paramaribo

District area

Paramaribo District 163 1631,821 296,823

1,500 182 8.2 5%

Page 56: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change

Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 51 gigatons CO2 Reduction

100 m2

Page 57: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Natural Daylight

Page 58: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Relative Efficacy of Light Sources (Ratio of Number of Lumens of Light Energy per Watt of Power or Rate of Heat Energy Supplied). Source:

Daylighting Design in Libraries. 2005, by Edward T. Dean, AIA , Libris Design Project, supported by the U.S. Institute of Museum and Library

Services, http://www.librisdesign.org/docs/DaylightDesignLibs.pdf .

Incandescent fluorescent daylight

12 66 125

Efficacy daylight vs artificial light

lumens per Watt lumens per Watt lumens per ft2

horizontal surface

Page 59: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

www.wbdg.org/ Whole

Building

Design

Guide

Passive Solar Cooling

Passive Solar Heating

Natural Ventilation

Solar Daylighting

Page 60: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Public library – North Carolina

Heinz Foundation

Green Building, PA

Oberlin College

Ecology Center,

Ohio

The Costs and

Financial Benefits of

Green Buildings, A

Report to California’s

Sustainable Building

Task Force, Oct.

2003, by Greg Kats

et al.

$500 to $700

per m2 net

present value

Towards Zero Net Energy &

Emission Buildings

Page 61: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

CA

Page 62: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

Page 63: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Suriname has offshore wind speeds of 8 to 10 meters per second at 100 meters height. A 3.6 MW turbine in a 9 m/s wind speed, operating 50% the time, will generate 6 million kWh per year. About 200 wind turbines would generate all of Suriname’s current electricity consumption.

Page 64: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

SURINAME territorial sea

waters

coastline (km)

nautical miles (nm)

km/nmSuriname territorial sea (km2)

3.6 MW wind

turbine size

coastal offshore area

386 12 1.8258,453

9 m/s avg@ 100 m

Potential turbines (spacing 500

meters)33,814

Turbines for 10X current Suriname

power consumption

2000

Percent territorial waters for 10X current power consumption

6%

Page 65: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

OFFSHORE WIND FARM INVESTMENT

Million £/MW

Percent Total Capex

720 MW (£ Millions)

720 MW ($ Millions)

Wind turbine generators (WTG), which make up around 47% at £1.5m per MW.

1.5 47% £ 508 $ 645

Foundations, which make up around 22% at £0.7m per MW

0.7 22% £ 111 $ 141

Electrical infrastructure, which makes up around 19% at £0.6m per MW

0.6 19% £ 82 $ 104

Planning & development costs, which make up the remaining 12% at £0.4m per MW

0.4 12% £ 35 $ 44

TOTAL £ 735 $ 934

Source: Ernst & Young. 2009. Cost of and financial support for offshore wind, A report for the Department of Energy and Climate Change, UK, 27 April 2009, URN 09D/534

Page 66: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Financial new investment by technology,

2009, and growth on 2008, $billion

New investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values includeestimates for undisclosed deals. * Includes CCS (carbon capture & storage)

Source: UNEP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 2010. Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010, Analysis of Trends

and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Page 67: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

ηeta

SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation

Universal symbol for Efficiency

Page 68: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Aligning utility and customer financial interests to

capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency, onsite

and distributed energy and water service

opportunities.

Dr. Art Rosenfeld Amory Lovins Ralph Cavanagh

KEY POLICY – UTILITY IRP+DECOUPLING

(IRP) Integrated Resource Planning ranks and prioritizes all end-use efficiency, customer onsite resource opportunities and supply expansion options according to least cost & risk

Page 69: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

New York

California

USA minus CA & NYPer Capital

Electricity

Consumption

165 GW

Coal

Power

Plants

Californian’s have

net savings of

$1,000 per family

[EPPs]

“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants”For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

Utility’s Earnings Go Up even as Revenues Go Down

Customers’ Bills Go Down even as Rates Go Up

Page 70: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

end-use

efficiency

Page 71: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

end-use

efficiency

Page 72: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

end-use

efficiency

Page 73: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants” Less

Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants

Page 74: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991

The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million

CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will

produce lighting services sufficient to displace several

billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments

used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.

CFL factories displace Power plants

Page 75: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

LED lamps

Page 76: suriname green economy presentation totten 07-19-10

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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http://www.lightingafrica.org/

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Full use of high performance windows in the

USA could save the equivalent of an Alaskan

pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as

well as accrue over $15 billion per year of

savings on energy bills.

High-E Windows displacing gas pipelines

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Learning

Sharing

[EPPs]

Finance

Regulation

HO

W?

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= hyperlink to Mesh resources

Knowledge toolsK

no

wle

dge

Ne

ed

s

CLICKS AWAY Web access, share,

add, distribute, produce, collaborate around shared vision

Web Network Mesh Template for Prototyping Green Dev.

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Imperative

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What Makes This

Possible?

•Digital Technology

• Internet networks

• Web applications

• Smart Phones &

Handhelds

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1 day of Internet traffic

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Kevin Kelly, Next 5000 days of the Internet, TED talk, 12-20-08, www.ted.org/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

5000 days ago Pre-Web

Pre-Commercial Internet

5000 days from now

Global Cloud Network

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5 billion cell

phone users

In 2010

UN says

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A day of Wikipedia activity

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Zoom in of

Wikipedia activity

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The WIKIPEDIA Collective Intelligence MODEL:

In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees

Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the

Encyclopedia Britannica

Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 100,000 volunteer editors

and content authors

Translating content into 150+ languages, and

Visited daily by > 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

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Size of a printed version of Wikipedia within 72 months (2001-2007)

Open Source & Global Access by Mobile Phones & Handhelds

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The Flickr Universe

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Launched in 2004 – Over 3 billion by 2008

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Social

Collaboration

building a

Shared Vision

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Collective

Intelligence

emerging

from Shared

Vision

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Architecture of Participation

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Norman L. Johnson, Science of Collective Intelligence: Resources for change, in chapter in Mark Tovey (ed.). 2008. Collective

Intelligence, Creating a Prosperous World at Peace, www.earth-intelligence.net.

Utility of expert & collective with

increasing complexity

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How to fast-track greener cities

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Global E-Sustainability Initiative

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IMPLEMENTING 10 IT SOLUTIONS TO SAVE 1 GIGATON CO2

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10 IT SOLUTIONS TO TRANSFORM TO GREEN ECONOMY

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Economics of the moment

Wealth & well-being over a life time

Value of Life on Earth, Priceless

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The Guiana Shield (GS) is one of the most important

centers of species richness on the planet.

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One-quarter all medical drugs used

in developed world from plants.

Cortisone and first oral

contraceptives derived from Central

American yam species

Pacific yew in western US yielded

anti-cancer drug taxol

Vincristine from the Rosy Periwinkle

in Madagascar

Drug to prevent blood clotting from

snake venom

Active ingredient aspirin synthesized

from willow trees.

Bioprospecting ecosystem wealth

Using bioinformatic tools

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Biomolecules prospected from

different bioresources for

medicinal, therapeutic and other

agriculturally important compounds

Biomolecules for Industrial and

Medicinal Use

Novel Genes/Promoters To Address

Biotic And Abiotic Stress

Genes for Transcription Factors

Metabolic Engineering Pathways

Nutritional Enhancement

Bioavailability of Elements

Microbial Biodiversity

Bioprospecting ecosystem wealth

Using bioinformatic tools

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Stephen M. Maurer, Arti Rai, Andrej Sali. 2004. Finding Cures for Tropical Diseases: Is Open Source an Answer? PLOS Medicine,

December , Volume 1,| Issue 3, www.plosmedicine.org/

Life Sciences Open Source Collaboration

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By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land required for agriculture.

800 MILLION HA OF ADDITIONAL LAND FOR MEDIUM GROWTH BIOFUEL SCENARIOS.

Intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats under constant threat.

Food, Fuel, Fiber, Feed,

Species Tradeoffs?

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THANK

YOU!

Michael TottenConservation [email protected]