statistika 2 maglivi

7/17/2019 statistika 2 maglivi

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ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo

universiteti

statistika ekonomikisa

da biznesisaTvis

(leqciebis kursi)

nawili II

Tbilisi 2013



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w i n a s i t y v a o b a

Tanamedrove msoflioSi statistikuri mecnierebis meTodebi farTod

gamoiyeneba sazogadoebrivi cxovrebis yvela sferoSi da gansakuTrebiT ki

ekonomikasa da biznesSi. amitom aucilebelia, rom studentebma farTod

Seiswavlon konkretuli statistikuri meTodebis gamoyenebis

Taviseburebebi sxvadasxva sferoSi, rac gaafarToebs SemdgomSi maTi

dasaqmebis SesaZleblobas. swored am miznis miRwevas emsaxureba

winamdebare leqciebis kursi, romelic did daxmarebas gauwevs rogorc

studentebs, aseve praqtikos specialistebs. misi struqtura srulad

Seesabameba Sesabamisi saswavlo disciplinis - ,,statistika ekonomikisa da

biznesisaTvis-2” – damtkicebul silabuss.leqciebis kursis momzadebis procesSi gamoyenebuli iqna rogorc

qarTul, ise inglisur, germanul da rusul enebze gamocemuli

Tanamedrove specialuri literatura. winamdebare leqciebis kursi

moamzada ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo

universitetis ekonomikuri da socialuri statistikis kaTedram (saerTo

redaqcia, winasityvaoba da Tema 7 - ,,sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis

statistika” - simon gelaSvili; Tema 1 - ,,Sromis bazris statistika” –

merab xmalaZe da qeTevan CitalaZe; Tema 2 - ,,ZiriTadi da sabrunavi

kapitalis statistika” da Tema 3 - ,,makroekonomikuri statistikis

maCvenebelTa sistema” – marine mindoraSvili; Tema 4 - ,,sabazro

koniunqturis statistika” – qeTevan marSava; Tema 5 - ,,safinanso-sabanko

statistika” – nino abesaZe da zamira Sonia; Tema 6 - ,,cxovrebis donis

statistika’’ – merab xmalaZe da irine maisuraZe.

igi gankuTvnilia umaRlesi saswavleblebis nebismieri ekonomikuri,

biznesis, socialuri da sxva specialobebisa da fakultetebis

studentebisaTvis. igi did daxmarebas gauwevs aseve praqtikos

specialistebs da am sakiTxebiT dainteresebul mkiTxvelTa farTo wres.



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Sinaarsi

Tema 1. Sromis bazris statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4

Tema 2. ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - 45

Tema 3. makroekonomikuri statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema - - - - - - - - 65

Tema 4. sabazro koniunqturis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 93

Tema 5. safinanso-sabanko statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 157

Tema 6. cxovrebis donis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 205

Tema 7. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - 247

literatura - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 279



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Tema 1. Sromis bazris statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

– Sromis bazris statistikis Seswavlis obieqti da ZiriTadi amocanebi;

– statistikuri informaciis wyaroebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb;

– mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT;

– mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis da dasaqmebis statistika;

– umuSevrobis statistika;

– samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistika;

– Sromis anazRaurebis statistika;

– samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi;

– Sromis nayofierebis statistika.

1.1. Sromis bazris statistikis Seswavlis obieqti da ZiriTadi amocanebi.

Sromis bazris maxasiaTebeli makroekonomikuri maCveneblebi qveynisekonomikuri mdgomareobis donis da ganviTarebis mniSvnelovani

maxasiaTeblebia. maT pirvel rigSi miekuTvneba dasaqmeba da umuSevroba,

rogorc qveyanaSi socialuri mdgomareobis ori polusi, romelTa

wonasworoba, ufro sworad Tanafardoba, mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs

qveynis SigniT arsebul ara mxolod socialur, aramed politikur

situaciasac. aRniSnulis naTeli dadasturebaa 2007 wlidan mimdinare

msoflio ekonomikuri krizisi, ris Sedegadac umuSevrobis donem espaneTsada saberZneTSi 25 %-s gadaaWarba, xolo dReisaTvis saberZneTi, espaneTi,

portugalia da irlandia defoltis (gakotrebis) zRvarze miiyvana.

Sesabamisad, Sromis bazris statistikis maCveneblebi warmoadgens

umniSvnelovanes makroekonomikur indikatorebs, romlebic aucilebelia

saxelmwifos socialuri da ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisaTvis.

Sromis bazris statistika, rogorc ekonomikuri statistikis

Semadgeneli nawili, Seiswavlis Sromis statistikis iseT mniSvnelovan

sakiTxebs, rogoricaa:

1. statistikur monacemTa wyaroebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb;

2. mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT;

3. mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis da dasaqmebis statistika;

4. umuSevrobis statistika;



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5. samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistika;

6. Sromis anazRaurebis statistika;

7. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi;

8. Sromis nayofierebis statistika.

ganvixiloT sakiTxebi cal-calke:

1.2. statistikuri informaciis wyaroebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb

Sromis bazris statistika, rogorc ekonomikuri statistikis Semadgeneli

nawili, Seiswavlis Sromis statistikasTan dakavSirebul iseT mniSvnelovan

sakiTxebs, rogoricaa ekonomikurad aqtiuri da araaqtiuri mosaxleoba, maTiricxovnoba da Semadgenloba, dasaqmeba, dasaqmebis done da struqtura

profesiebis, ekonomikis seqtorebis, dargebis, genderul da qalaq-soflis WrilSi

da a.S. Sromis bazris zemoTaRniSnuli da maTTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebi

warmoadgens Sromis bazris Seswavlis obieqts, xolo maTi raodenobrivi

daxasiaTeba Sromis bazris statistikis Seswavlis sagans.

gegmuri meurneobisgan gansxvavebiT sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi

umuSevrobis Seswavlam didi socialuri da ekonomikuri mniSvneloba SeiZina. Tu

socializmis pirobebSi formalurad umuSevroba ar arsebobda, sabazroekonomikis pirobebSi is realobad iqca da Sesabamisad dasaqmebasTan erTad did

gavlenas axdens qveynis socialur-ekonomikur ganviTarebaze, cxovrebis doneze.

Sromis bazris statistikis maCveneblebi warmoadgenen umniSvnelovanes

makroekonomikur indikatorebs, romlebic aucilebelia saxelmwifos socialuri

da ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisaTvis.

saqarTvelos sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis pirobebSi Seicvala Sromis

statistikis informaciis mopovebis xerxebi. socializmis pirobebSi Sromis

bazris Sesaxeb informacia moipoveboda saxelmwifo sawarmoebze sruli

dakvirvebiT yovelwliurad, xolo 3-5 weliwadSi erTxel tardeboda sawarmoebis

sruli gamokvleva dasaqmebulTa Sesaswavlad sqesis, asakis, profesiebis,

Tanamdebobebis da sxva niSnebis mixedviT.



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amasTan erTad, informacias samuSao Zalis ricxovnobis da sqesobriv-

asakobrivi Semadgeblobis, misi dargobriv_teritoriuli ganawilebis, dasaqmebis

donis da sxvaTa Sesaxeb gvaZlevda mosaxleobis aRwerebi.

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis sayovelTao aRweriT aseve mopovebuli

iqna monacemebi samuSao Zalis ricxovnobis da Semadgenlobis, arsebobis

saSualebaTa wyaroebis, dasaqmebis, ZiriTadi saqmianobis an Sesrulebuli

samuSaos sruli dasaxelebis Sesaxeb, monacemebi 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis

dausaqmebel mosaxleobaze. magram mosaxleobis aRwerebi, rogorc viciT, tardeba

10 weliwadSi erTxel, maSin, rodesac monacemebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb saWiroa

ara Tu 10 weliwadSi erTxel an yovelwliurad, aramed sistematiurad,

yovelTviurad, yovelkvartalurad.

amitom Sromis bazris statistikis mniSvnelovan wyaros warmoadgens

SinameurneobaTa gamokvlevebi, romelic iZleva sistematiur informacias samuSao

Zalis ricxovnobis da Semadgenlobis, ekonomikuri statusis, dasaqmebis da

umuSevrobis Sesaxeb.

garkveuli informacia miiReba sawarmoebidan. amasTan msxvili sawarmoebi

Seiswavleba sruli dakvirvebiT, xolo saSualo da mcire sawarmoebi-SerCeviTi

dakvirvebiT.

saqarTveloSi Sromis bazris statistikis Sesaxeb informaciis mopovebis,

damuSavebisa da maCveneblebis gamoTvlis meTodologia eyrdnoba Sromis

saerTaSoriso biuros, Sromis saerTaSoriso organizaciis (Sso) da sxva

saerTaSoriso organizaciebis rekomendaciebs.

Sromis statistikis winaSe dasmuli amocanebis gadasawyvetad saWiroa

Seswavlili iqnas Semdegi sakiTxebi:

1. mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT;

2. dasaqmeba da umuSevroba; SromiTi resursebis balansi;

3. samuSao Zalis moZraoba;

4. Sromis anazRaureba;

5. Sromis nayofiereba;

6. danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze.



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1.3. mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT

mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT warmoadgens

klasifikacias statusis mixedviT gaweul saqmianobaSi. am SemTxvevaSi statusi

aRniSnavs adamianis mdgomareobas, rols, funqcias Sesrulebuli saqmianobis

procesSi.

saqarTvelos statistikaSi ekonomikuri statusis gansazRvra xdeba

saerTaSoriso standartebTan misadagebiT, kerZod Sromis saerTaSoriso

organizaciis (Sso) kriteriumebis gaTvaliswinebiT.

saqarTvelos statistikaSi aRiricxeba ekonomikuri statusis Semdegi saxeebi:1

ekonomikurad aqtiuri – piri, romelic muSaobs an sTavazobs Tavis Sromas

saqonlis an momsaxurebis sawarmoeblad. ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobas

miekuTvneba 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis zemoTaRniSnuli nawili.

saerTaSoriso statistikuri standartebis mixedviT ekonomikurad aqtiuri

mosaxleobis yvelaze xSirad gamoyenebuli saxelwodebaa samuSao Zala.

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba moicavs or kategorias: dasaqmebulebs da

umuSevrebs.

dasaqmebuli (momuSave) – piri, romelic gamokiTxvis momentis wina 7 dRis

ganmavlobaSi muSaobda (sul mcire, erTi saaTi mainc) Semosavlis (xelfasis,

naturaluri Semosavlis, mogebis da a.S.) miRebis mizniT, exmareboda usasyidlod

sxva Sinameurneobis wevrebs, an raime mizeziT ar imyofeboda samuSaoze, Tumca

formalurad iricxeboda momuSaved.

dasaqmebis cneba uSualodaa dakavSirebuli warmoebis sazRvrebTan, romelic

ganmartebulia erovnul angariSTa sistemiT (eas).2 aRniSnuli midgomis Tanaxmad

dasaqmebulebs miekuTvnebian pirebi, romlebic qmnian produqcias (saqonels,

momsaxurebas) warmoebis sazRvrebSi. aqedan gamomdinare, dasaqmebis da warmoebis

maCveneblebi (kategoriebi) urTierTSesadari sidideebia, rac maTi erToblivi

analizis saSualebas iZleva.

rac Seexeba dasaqmebis kriteriumad kviraSi sul cota erTi saaTis muSaobas,

gamowveulia imiT, rom qveyanaSi arsebobs dasaqmebis mravali moklevadiani,

SemTxveviTi da sxva araregularuli saxeobebi, romelTa aRricxva aucilebelia

1 saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb., 2005. gv. 262 ix.: Tavi 9



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ekonomikaSi maTi wvlilis dasadgenad, rac obieqturad Txoulobs aRniSnuli

kriteriumis gamoyenebas.

dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba Tavis mxriv iyofa daqiravebul, TviTdasaqmebul,

damxmare da gaurkveveli saqmianobis mosaxleobad.

daqiravebuli – piri, romelic saangariSo periodis ganmavlobaSi asrulebda

gansazRvrul samuSaos xelfasis an sxva saxis anazRaurebis miRebis (fuliT an

naturiT) mizniT. mas aseve miekuTvneba samuSao adgilis mqone magram ar momuSave

piri Svebulebis, avadmyofobis, samuSaodan droebiT daTxovnis an sxva msgavsi

mizezebis gamo.

TviTdasaqmebuli – mesakuTris saqmianoba saangariSo periodSi mogebis an

ojaxuri Semosavlis (fuliT an naturiT) miRebis mizniT.

damxmare – sxva Sinameurneobis wevrebisTvis usasyidlod momuSave piri.

gaurkveveli – Sromis bazris statistikaSi statusiT gaurkveveli _

aRiricxebian pirebi, romelTa samuSaos saxe dauzustebelia, maT Sesaxeb

arsebuli informacia ar aris sakmarisi imisaTvis, rom isini mivakuTvnoT

CamoTvlili statusis romelime kategorias.

statusis mixedviT mosaxleobis struqtura da garkveuli periodis

ganmavlobaSi am struqturaSi momxdari Zvrebi mosaxleobis

socialur_ekonomikuri struqturaSi momxdari cvlilebebis analizis

mniSvnelovan saSualebas warmoadgens.

statusis mixedviT mosaxleobis klasifikacia warmoebs maTi statusis

mixedviT ZiriTad samuSaoze. Tu gamokvlevis momentSi adamiani muSaobs kidev sxva

samuSaoze, maSin ganisazRvreba ZiriTadi da meoradi saqmianoba. ZiriTadad

iTvleba is samuSao, romelsac gamosakiTxi piri TviTon Tvlis ZiriTadad

(Semosavlis ZiriTad wyarod). sxva samuSao iTvleba meoradad.

umuSevari – 15 da meti wlis piri, romelsac gamokiTxvis momentis wina 7

dRis ganmavlobaSi ar umuSavia erTi saaTic ki, mzad iyo muSaobisaTvis da eZebda

samuSaos gamokiTxvamde 4 kviris ganmavlobaSi.

umuSevrebis da momuSaveebis zemoTmotanili ganmartebebi dadgenilia e.w.

`mkacri kriteriumiT~. Sso-s standartebiT Sromis bazris Camoyalibebis procesSi

myofi qveynebisaTvis rekomendirebulia umuSevrobis monacemebi gamoqveyndes

`Serbilebuli kriteriumiT~-ac. am kriteriumiT umuSevrad iTvlebian is pirebic,

romlebmac xeli Caiqnies samuSaos povnaze. eseni arian adamianebi, romlebic ar



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muSaoben, mzad arian muSaobisTvis da surT muSaoba, magram ukve aRar eZeben mas.

cxadia, umuSevarTa raodenobac da donec Serbilebuli kriteriumiT maRali

iqneba mkacri kriteriumiT Sefasebul umuSevrobaze.

umuSevrobis zemoTmotanili ganmartebebi eyrdnoba Sso-is rekomendaciebs

xolo monacemebi mis Sesaxeb miiReba specialurad organizebuli statistikuri

dakvirvebis (Sinameurneobebze dakvirvebis) masalebiT. amas garda umuSevrobis

registracia mimdinareobs dasaqmebis saxelmwifo samsaxurebis mier moqalaqeTa

sacxovrebeli adgilis mixedviT.

sxvaoba 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobas da ekonomikurad aqtiur

mosaxleobas Soris warmoadgens ekonomikurad araaqtiur, anu samuSao Zalis

gareT myof mosaxleobas. ixileT cxrili 1.1.

cxrili 1.1.

saqarTvelos 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis ganawileba

ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT 1997-2008 wlebSi (aTasi kaci)1

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008

sul 15 wlis da

ufrosi asakis

mosaxleoba.3002,1 3016,8 3026,2 3141,6 3191,0 3239,5 3099,1 3146,9 3627,1

aqedan:

ekonomikurad

aqtiuri 2060,2 1972,8 1939,3 2049,2 2113,3 2104,2 2050,8 2041,0 1917,8dasaqmebuli, m.S. 1908,5 1728,5 1694,4 1837,2 1877,7 1839,2 1815,0 1783,3 1601,9

daqiravebuli 675,9 724,4 697,6 683,9 654,5 650,9 618,5 600,9 572,4

TviTdasaqmebuli 1123,2 987,1 918,6 1041,2 1135,9 1184,9 1195,2 1180,8 1028,5

gaurkveveli 109,4 17,0 78,4 112,1 87,3 3,4 1,3 1,6 1,1

umuSevari 151,7 244,2 244,9 212,0 235,6 265,0 235,9 257,6 315,8

mosaxleoba

samuSao Zalis

gareT

941,9 1044,0 1086,9 1092,3 1077,7 1135,3 1048,4 1105,9 1709,3

1 saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb., 2006, gv. 28. saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi2008. Tb., 2009, gv. 15. Sso-is mkacri kriteriumebiT. SemdgomSi, Tu miTiTebuli ar aris,monacemebi motanili iqneba mkacri kriteriumebis mixedviT.



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1.4. mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis da dasaqmebis statistika

dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis statistikaSi erT-erT mniSvnelovan adgils

ikavebs ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis daxasiaTeba. aRniSnuli daxasiaTeba

moicavs ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis saerTo raodenobis gansazRvras, misSemadgenlobas statusis mixedviT rogorc absolutur, ise SefardebiT

(struqturis SefardebiTi sidideebi) sidideebSi, ekonomikurad aqtiuri

mosaxleoba Seiswavleba aseve sqesobriv-asakobriv da regionul WrilSi,

dinamikaSi.

rogorc cxrili 1.1-dan Cans, ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba saqarTveloSi

1997-2008 wlebSi 3002,1 aTasidan gaizarda 3627,1 aTasamde, e.i. 120,8%-iT. zrda

mniSvnelovania, miT umetes, rom am periodSi ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis

mniSvnelovani nawili sazRvargareT wavida samuSaos saZebnelad. 2008 wlisTvisekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis 83,5% Seadgenda dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba,

xolo 16,5% _ umuSevrebi. amave 2008 wlisTvis saqarTvelos samuSao Zalis 43,2%

cxovrobda qalaqad, xolo 56,8% soflad.

mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis donis dasaxasiaTeblad statistikaSi

gamoiyeneba iseTi makroekonomikuri maCvenebeli, rogoricaa: mosaxleobis

ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti. is gviCvenebs ekonomikurad aqtiuri

mosaxleobis xvedriT wils (procentebSi) 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis

saerTo ricxovnobaSi da gamoiTvleba ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobisricxovnobis SefardebiT 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis saerTo

ricxovnobasTan. koeficienti gamoiTvleba formuliT:

100.T15

ek.aqt.

aqt.

T K

(1.1)

sadac: aqt. K - aris mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti;

ek.aqt.T _ ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnoba;

15T _ 15 wlis da masze ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba.



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kerZod, 1.1, cxrilis monacemebze dayrdnobiT SegviZlia gaviangariSoT

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficientebi rigi wlebis

mixedviT.

1997 wels : 2 060, 2 100 = 68, 6%;3 002, 1

1998 wels :1 972, 8

100 = 65, 4%3 016, 8

;

2000 wels :2 049, 2

100 65,2%3 141, 6

;

2002 wels :

2 104,2

100 65,0%;3 239,5

2004 wels :2 041,0

100 64,9%;3 146,9

2005 wels : %0,64100.9,3159

9,2023 ;.

2008 wels : %9,52100.

1,3627

8,1917 ;.

ganxilul, 1997-2005 wlebSi saqarTveloSi mkafiodaa gamoxatuli ekonomikuri

aqtiurobis donis Semcirebis tendencia. aqtiurobis koeficienti 68,6%-dan 1997

wels TandaTanobiT mcirdeba 64,0%-mde 2005 wlisTvis da 52,9%-mde 2008 wlisTvis.

saqarTvelos statistika ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT ganixilavs ara

marto 15 wlis da ufrosi, aramed 25 welze ufrosi asakis mosaxleobasac.

ekonomikurad araaqtiuri, anu mosaxleoba samuSao Zalis gareT moicavs 15

wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobidan invalidebs, pensionerebs, moswavleebs da

sxv. aRniSnuli kategoria SeiZleba davaxasiaToT iseTi statistikuri

maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa: ekonomikurad araaqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnoba,misi

xvedri wili 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobaSi, ricxovnobis da xvedri

wilis dinamika, struqtura, ori periodis ganmavlobaSi momxdari struqturuli

Zvrebi.



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zemoT motanili monacemebiT ekonomikurad araaqtiuri mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba saqarTveloSi 1997-2008 wlebSi 941,9 aTasidan gaizarda 1709,3 aTasamde,

e.i. 181,5%-iT.

mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis donis sapirispirod SeiZleba

gamovTvaloT èkonomikuri pasiurobis~ donis maxasiaTebeli, kerZod, èkonomikuri

pasiurobis~ koeficienti, romelic gamoiTvleba samuSao Zalis gareT myofi

mosaxleobis ricxovnobis SefardebiT 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis

ricxovnobasTan, gamosaxuli procentebSi.

100.T15

ek.pas.

pas.

T K

(1.2)

sadac:pas.

K - aris mosaxleobis èkonomikuri pasiurobis~ koeficienti;

ek.pas.T - samuSao Zalis gareT myofi mosaxleoba.

cxrili 1.1-is monacemebze dayrdnobiT gaangariSebuli èkonomikuri

pasiurobis~ koeficientebi saqarTveloSi 1997-2008 wlebSi tolia:

1997 wels :941, 9

100 31, 4%3002, 1

;

1998 wels : 1044, 0 100 34, 6%3016, 8 ;

2000 wels :1092, 3

100 34, 8%3141, 6

;

2002 wels :1135, 3

100 35, 0%3239, 5

;

2004 wels :

1105, 9

100 35, 1%3146, 9

;

2005 wels : %0,36100.9,3159

1,1136 ;.



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2008 wels : %1,47100.1,3627

3,1709 ;.

ganxilul periodSi naTladaa gamokveTili saqarTveloSi mosaxleobis

èkonomikuri pasiurobis~ donis zrdis tendencia, rac logikuria, ramdenadac ismimdinareobs ekonomikuri aqtiurobis donis dacemis pirobebSi imave 1997-2008

wlebSi.

ramdenadac 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleoba iyofa ekonomikurad

aqtiur da pasiur nawilebad, aqtiurobis da pasiurobis koeficientebs erTi da

igive mniSvneli aqvT. Sesabamisad mocemuli maCveneblebis jami 100,0%-is tolia:

%100 pas.aqt. K K .

(1.3)

Sesabamisad, Tu cnobilia erTis mniSvneloba, SeiZleba gaangariSebis gareSe

gavigoT meores mniSvneloba:

pas.aqt. K K %100 da

(1.4)

aqt.pas. K K %100 .

(1.5)

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis mniSvnelovan nawils rogorc

raodenobrivad, ise socialur-ekonomikuri mniSvnelobiT warmoadgens dasaqmebuli

mosaxleoba. dasaqmeba gansazRvravs mosaxleobis Semosavlebs da Sesabamisad

cxovrebis dones. misi zrda iwvevs umuSevrobis Semcirebas da Sesabamisad –

qveyanaSi arsebuli socialuri fonis gaumjobesebas. aqedan gamomdinare

statistikas dasaqmebis Seswavlis kuTxiT mniSvnelovani amocanebis Sesruleba

akisria. kerZod saWiroa ganisazRvros: dasaqmebulTa mTliani ricxovnoba da misi

ganawileba dasaqmebis statusis, ekonomikis seqtorebis, ekonomikuri saqmianobis

saxeebis (dargebis), dakavebuli Tanamdebobebis mixedviT da igive WrilSi

Seiswavleba meoradi dasaqmeba.

dasaqmeba ganixileba sqesobriv-asakobriv, aseve regionul da qalaqi-sofeli

WrilSi. Sinameurneobebis kvlevis masalebis dajgufeba saSualebas iZleva

dadgindes da gaanalizdes dasaqmebis donis, dinamikis da struqturuli Zvrebis



14

tendenciebi. saqarTvelos statistika jerovan yuradRebas uTmobs meoradad

(araZiriTadad, SeTavsebiT) dasaqmebulTa statistikur aRricxvas da analizs,

romelic moicavs igive niSnebis registracias, rac xdeba ZiriTadi dasaqmebis

SemTxvevaSi.

mosaxleobis dasaqmebis statistikaSi ZiriTad maCvenebels warmoadgens

dasaqmebis done. dasaqmebis done xasiaTdeba mosaxleobis dasaqmebis

koeficientiT, romelic miiReba dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis SefardebiT

ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobasTan da gamoisaxeba procentebSi. dasaqmebis

koeficienti gamoiTvleba rogorc:

100.T aqt.ek.

das.

das.

T K

( 1.6)

sadac: das. K - aris mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti;

das.T - dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis ricxovnoba.

dasaqmebuli da ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnobis Sesaxeb

monacemebi motanilia cxrili 1.1-Si, romlebze dayrdnobiTac SegviZlia

gamovTvaloT dasaqmebis koeficientebi wlebis mixedviT, kerZod:

1997 wels:1908,2

100 92,6%2060,2

;

1998 wels:1728,5

100 87,6%1972,8

;

1999 wels:1694,4

100 87,4%;1939,3

2000 wels:1837,2

100 89,7%;2049,2

2001 wels:1877,7

100 88,9%;2113,3

2002 wels:1839,2

100 87,4%;2104,2



15

2003 wels:1815,0

100 88,5%;2050,8

2004 wels:1783,3

100 87,3%;2041,0

2005 wels:1744,6

100 86,2%.2023,9

;

2008 wels: %5,83100.8,1917

9,1601

rogorc vxedavT dasaqmebis doneebis variaciis gamo Znelia calsaxad imis

Tqma Tu ra tendenciiT xasiaTdeba dasaqmeba saqarTveloSi: zrdiT Tu klebiT,

ramdenadac maCveneblis klebas mohyveba zrda da piriqiT. magram Tu doneebs

gamovTvliT rogorc ori wlis doneebis saSualo ariTmetikuls, e.i. mivmarTavT

dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebas, maSin miviRebT dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebul

doneebs ori wlis mixedviT da aRmoCndeba, rom maCveneblebi stabilurad

mcirdeba.

1997-1998 wels – 90,1%;

1999-2000 wels – 88,6%;

2001-2002 wels – 88,2%;

2003-2004 wels – 87,9%;

2005 wels _ 86,2%;

2008 wels _ 83,5%.

aqedan gamomdinare, SeiZleba calsaxad iTqvas, rom 1997-2008 wlebSi

dasaqmebis done saqarTveloSi Semcirebis tendenciiT xasiaTdeba.

dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba statusis mixedviT iyofa daqiravebul da

TviTdasaqmebul mosaxleobad. dasaqmebulTa aRniSnuli kategoriebis

dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba maTi ricxovnebis, dinamikisa da struqturis

maCveneblebi. dasaqmebulebs miekuTvneba agreTve gaurkveveli saqmianobis pirebi.



16

absoluturi monacemebi aRniSnuli kategoriebis ricxovnobis Sesaxeb mocemulia

1.1 cxrilSi, saidanac irkveva, rom daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa ricxovnoba

saqarTveloSi 1997-2008 wlebSi Semcirda 675,9 aTasidan 572,4 aTasamde, e.i. 15,3%-iT

(zrdis tempi tolia 84,7%-is), TviTdasaqmebulTa ricxvi Semcirda 1123,2 aTasidan

1028,5 aTasamde, e.i. 8,4%-iT, xolo gaurkveveli saqmianobis pirTa ricxvi 109,4

aTasidan _ 1,1 aTasamde. vfiqrobT, rom aRniSnuli maCvenebeli gvixasiaTebs ara

marto am kategoriis dasaqmebulTa ricxovnobis Semcirebas, aramed statistikuri

dakvirvebis sizustis xarisxis zrdasac, ramdenadac ganxilul, 1997-2008 wlebSi

moxda dasaqmebulTa gaurkveveli saqmianobis dazusteba da Sesabamisad maTi

adekvaturi aRricxva.

dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis struqtura statusis mixedviT gvixasiaTebs

calkeuli kategoriis dasaqmebulTa xvedriT wils procentebSi dasaqmebuli

mosaxleobis mTlian ricxovnobaSi. Sesabamisi maCveneblebi 1997-2008 wlebSi

saqarTveloSi Semdeg suraTs iZleva:1

wlebi 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008

sul dasaqmebulebi 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

maT Soris:

daqiravebulebi 35,4 41,9 41,2 37,3 34,9 35,4 34,0 33,7 34,4 35,7

TviTdasaqmebulebi 58,9 57,1 54,2 56,7 60,5 64,4 65,9 66,2 65,5 64,2

gaurkveveli 5,7 1,0 4,6 6,0 4,6 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1

monacemebi gviCvenebs dasaqmebis struqturaSi momxdar Zvrebs, rac imaSi

gamoixateba, rom ganxiluli periodis manZilze mniSvnelovnad izrdeba

TviTdasaqmebulTa xvedri wili, odnav mcirdeba daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa xvedri

wili da mniSvnelovnad mcirdeba gaurkveveli saqmianobis mqone pirTa xvedri

wili.

dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT moicavs

dasaqmebulTa ganawilebas ekonomikis saxelmwifo da arasaxelmwifo seqtorebSi.

ekonomikis saxelmwifo seqtori Tavis mxriv iyofa saxelmwifo sakuTrebis

sawarmoebad da sabiujeto organizaciebad an dawesebulebebad. arasaxelmwifo

1 gamoTvlilia cxrili 1.1-is safuZvelze, procentebSi



17

seqtori Tavis mxriv iyofa arasaxelmwifo sakuTrebis sawarmoebad da ucxoeTis

an erTobliv sawarmo-organizaciebad.

cxrili 1..2

dasaqmebulebis ganawileba ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT

saqarTveloSi 1998-2008 wlebSi1

wlebi

absoluturad (aTasi kaci) procentebSi

sul

dasaqmebulia

ekonomikaSi

maT Soris: sul

dasaqmebulia

ekonomikaSi

maT Soris:

saxelmwifo

seqtorSi

arasaxel-

mwifo

seqtorSi

saxelmwifo

seqtorSi

arasaxel-

mwifo

seqtorSi

1998 1731 530 1201 100,0 30,6 69,4

1999 1733 469 1264 100,0 27,1 72,9

2000 1839 476 1363 100,0 25,9 74,1

2001 1878 450 1428 100,0 24,0 76,0

2002 1839 422 1417 100,0 22,9 77,1

2003 1814 409 1406 100,0 22,5 77,5

2004 1873 407 1376 100,0 22,8 77,2

2005 1745 401 1344 100,0 23,0 77,0

dasaqmebis struqturaSi mimdinare Zvrebi gviCvenebs sabazro ekonomikaze

gardamavali qveynis damaxasiaTebel tendencias, rac arasaxelmwifo seqtorSi

dasaqmebulTa xvedri wilis zrdaSi gamoixateba.

dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis (dargebis)

mixedviT motanilia cxril 1.3-Si.

1 saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2005, Tb., 2006, gv. 54.saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006, Tb., 2007, gv. 45



18

cxrilSi motanilia dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikuri saqmianobis im

saxeebis mixedviT, romlebSic 2005 wels aRiricxa dasaqmebulTa saerTo ricxvis

3 da meti procenti.

cxrili 1.3

dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis (dargebis

mixedviT) saqarTveloSi 1999-2008 wlebSi.1 procentulad

1999 2001 2003 2004 2005 2007

dasaqmebulebi, sul, maT Soris:

soflis meurneoba, nadiroba

da satyeo meurneoba

damamuSavebeli mrewveloba

vaWroba, avtomobilebis,

sayofacxovrebo nawarmisa da piradi

moxmarebis sagnebis remonti

transporti da kavSirgabmuloba

saxelmwifo mmarTveloba

ganaTleba

janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri

daxmareba

danarCeni

100,0

52,1

6,4

8,9

4,0

6,2

8,0

4,5

9,9

100,0

52,7

5,4

10,0

4,4

5,6

7,4

4,5

10,0

100,0

54,9

4,9

10,9

4,2

5,0

7,5

2,7

9,9

100,0

54,0

5,1

11,0

4,2

4,9

7,5

3,1

10,2

100,0

54,3

5,1

10,8

4,0

4,7

7,5

3,3

10,3

100,0

53,4

4,9

9,9

4,2

3,8

7,3

3,5

13,0

1 saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb, 2005, gv. 37. statistikuri weliwdeuli 2008.Tb., 2009, gv. 44-45.



19

SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqarTvelos dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis dargobrivi

struqtura 1999-2008 wlebSi praqtikulad ucvlelia.

2008 wlisTvis dasaqmebulTa 46,6% qalia, 53,4% kaci, 36,8% modis qalaqis

mosaxleobaze, 63,2% soflis mosaxleobaze.1

dasaqmebulTa ganawileba dakavebuli Tanamdebobis mixedviT motanilia

cxril 1.4 –Si sqesis da qalaqi-soflis mixedviT procentebSi.

cxrili 1.4

dasaqmebulTa ganawileba dakavebuli Tanamdebobebis

mixedviT saqarTveloSi 2005 wels1 procentulad.

qalaqi sofeli sul qalebi kacebi

marTvis organoebis

xelmZRvanelebi

umaRlesi donis kvalificiuri

specialistebi

saSualo donis kvalificiuri

specialistebi

sakancelario saqmiT da

aRricxviT dakavebuli pirebi

momsaxurebis sferoSi

dasaqmebulebi

soflis meurneobis muSakebi

warmoebis kvalificiuri muSakebi

operatorebi, memanqaneebi

meaparateebi

arakvalificiuri muSebi

7,4

23,6

12,5

2,2

20,5

8,8

10,1

5,7

1,2

4,4

2,9

0,6

5,0

77,5

2,9

2,3

3,4

11,2

6,3

1,2

10,5

53,1

5,4

3,5

1,9

14,6

8,1

1,7

11,4

56,9

1,6

0,1

4,8

8,2

4,6

0,6

9,7

49,8

9,0

6,6

1 saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2008. Tb, 2009, gv. 17-18. 1 cxrili Sedgenilia: saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005, Tb, 2005, gv. 42, 46.2008 wlisTvis aRniSnuli monacemebi ar gamoqveynda.



20

sxva

sul

9,0

0,1

100,0

3,2

0,0

100,0

5,3

0,1

100,0

3,7

0,0

100,0

6,7

0,0

100,0

dasaqmebulTa ganawileba dakavebuli Tanamdebobebis, anu rac igivea, Sromis

procesSi Sesrulebuli funqciis mixedviT gviCvenebs am funqciebis garkveul

polarizacias qalaqi-sofelis da sqesis mixedviT. aRniSnuli iqidan Cans, rom

garda soflis meurneobis muSakebisa, yvela Tanamdebobrivi pozicia qalaqSi

ufro meti xvedri wiliT aris warmodgenili. Sromis garkveuli danawileba

SeiniSneba sqesis mixedviTac. xvedri wilis SedarebiT maRali maCvenebliT

gamoirCevian kacebi: marTvis organoebis xelmZRvanelobaSi, warmoebiskvalificiur muSakebSi, arakvalificiur muSebSi, operatorebSi, memanqaneebSi,

meaparateebSi. danarCen proziciebSi, rogoricaa: umaRlesi da saSualo donis

kvalificiuri specialistebi, soflis meurneobis muSakebi da sxva Warbobs

qalebis xvedri wili.

saqarTvelos statistikaSi mTlianad dasaqmebasTan erTad didi mniSvneloba

eniWeba daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa statistikur Seswavlas igive niSnebis mixedviT,

rogoricaa saerTod dasaqmebulTa Seswavlis SemTxvevaSi, ramdenadac

dasaqmebulTa aRniSnuli kategoriis absoluturi da SefardebiT zrda sabazroekonomikaze gadasvlis piroba da imavdroulad Sedegicaa.

meoradad dasaqmeba (SeTavseba) dRevandel saqarTveloSi mniSvnelovan rols

asrulebs. jer erTi, paradoqsulia, Tumca faqtia, rom umuSevrobis pirobebSi

adgili aqvs samuSao Zalis deficits. magram laparakia ara raodenobriv, aramed

kvalificiuri, dRevandeli samecniero-teqnologiuri revoluciis moTxovnebisadmi

adekvaturi donis samuSao Zalaze. Sesabamisad maRalkvalificiuri samuSao Zalis

deficitis pirobebSi aseTi kvalificiis samuSao Zalis meoradad dasaqmeba

saWirocaa da aucilebelic. meore-meoradad dasaqmeba ojaxis biujetis Sevsebisgarkveuli wyaroa da meoradad dasaqmebis ZiriTadi mizezi.

meoradad dasaqmebis dones gansazRvravs masze moTxovna, e.i vakanturi

adgilebis arseboba. meoradad dasaqmebis statistikuri analizi mimdinareobs

saerTod dasaqmebis statistikuri analizis identurad, ramdenadac es

SesaZlebelia arsebuli statistikuri informaciis pirobebSi.



21

arsebuli monacemebiT 2005 wels saqarTveloSi aRiricxa 146,2 aTasi meoradad

dasaqmebuli (2004 welTan SedarebiT 8 aTasiT naklebi). maTgan 47,2% _ qalia, 52,8%

_ kaci, qalaqSi dasaqmebulia maTi mxolod 23,6%, soflad _ 76,4%.

amave 2005 wels meoradad dasaqmebulTa udidesi nawili, 67,6% dasaqmebulia

soflis meurneobaSi, metyeveobasa da TevzWeraSi da mxolod 2,7% _ mrewvelobaSi.

aRniSnuli dabali procenti SeiZleba avxsnaT rogorc mrewvelobis `CamorCeniT”

soflis meurneobisgan, Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom 2005 wels mrewvelobaze modis

saqarTvelos mTliani Sida produqtiis 12,2, xolo soflis meurneobaze, 14,8%.

magram aseTi sxvaoba rogorc Cans gamowveulia mrewvelobis mier soflis

meurneobasTan SedarebiT maRalkvalificiuri kadrebis moTxovniT, romelTa

miwodeba SezRudulia, an kidev mrewvelobaSi meoradi dasaqmebis vakansiebi

naklebia samuSao adgilebis sruli aTvisebis gamo.

1.5. mosaxleobis umuSevrobis statistika

umuSevroba warmoadgens umniSvnelovanes socialur, biznes_ekonomikur,

makroekonomikur maCvenebels. umuSevrobis statistika Seiswavlis umuSevarTa

ricxvs, umuSevrobis dones sqesis, asakis, qalaqisa da soflis, regionebis

mixedviT.

umuSevrobis dones vaxasiaTebT umuSevrobis koeficientiT, romelicgamoiTvleba mocemul wels umuSevarTa ricxvis SefardebiT ekonomikurad aqtiur

mosaxleobasTan da gamoisaxeba procentebSi. kerZod:

100.aqt.ek.

umuS.

umuS.T

T K (1.7)

sadac umuS. K _ aris umuSevrobis koeficienti;

umuS.T _ umuSevrebis ricxvi.

Sinameurneobebis gamokvleviT 2008 wels saqarTveloSi aRricxuli iyo 315,8

aTasi umuSevari, romelTagan 75,7% cxovrobda qalaqad, 24,3% _ soflad.

Sesabamisi gamoTvlebiT, 2008 wels umuSevrobis done qalaqad tolia 28,9%-is,

soflad 7,0%-is, e.i. umuSevrobis doneebs Soris sxvaoba 4-magze metia. SedarebiT

naklebia sxvaoba qalebis da kacebis umuSevrobis doneebs Soris. kerZod, amave



22

2008 wels man qalebSi Seadgina 16,1% xolo kacebSi – 16,8%. amave wels

umuSevroba mTlianad qveyanaSi saSualod 16,5%-is tolia. aRniSnuli koeficienti

cxrili 13.1-ze dayrdnobiT gaviangariSioT 2008 wlisTvis

%5,16100.8,19178,315 umuS. K

dasaqmebis da umuSevrobis maCveneblebis jami 100%-is tolia. Sesabamisad, Tu

cnobilia erTi maTgani, iolad gamovTvliT meoresac.

umuSevrobis done saqrTveloSi ganicdis mniSvnelovan diferenciacias

regionebis mixedviT. movitanoT Sesabamisi maCveneblebi ranJirebuli Semcirebis

mimarTulebiT 2004 wlisTvis 1, procentebiT.

saqarTvelo sul 12,6

maT Soris:

q. Tbilisi 26,0 qvemo qarTli 8,1

aWaris ar 17,6 samegrelo-zemo svaneTi 7,6

mcxeTa –mTianeTi 14,4 kaxeTi 5,2

Sida qarTli 10,9 samcxe-javaxeTi 4,0

imereTi, raWa-leCxumi guria 3,4

da qvemo svaneTi 10,5

rogorc ukve zemoT aRvniSneT, dasaqmebis saxelmwifo samsaxuri awarmoebs

umuSevarTa registracias. misi monacemebiT, 2004 wlisTvis saqarTveloSi adgili

hqonda Semdeg mdgomareobas, Sesabamisi maCveneblebiT:

1. registrirebuli samuSaos maZieblebi, (aTasi kaci) 47,9

2. registrirebuli umuSevrebi, aTasi kaci 46,6

3. maT Soris qali, aTasi kaci 23,0

4 maT Soris qali, procentulad 49,0

5. Semweobis mimRebi umuSevarTa ricxvi, aTasi kaci 2,1

6. saSualoTviuri Semweoba, gacemuli erT umuSevarze,

1 saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2005. Tb.,2006,gv.62-64. momdevno wlebSi aRniSnulimaCveneblebi ar gamoqveynda.



23

lari 19,7

7. registrirebuli vakansiebi, aTasi 0,7

8. umuSevarTa raodenoba erT vakansiaze 66

9. dasaqmebis samsaxuris mier dasaqmebuli samuSaos

maZieblebi, aTasi kaci 4,0

10. registrirebul umuSevarTa ganawileba asakis mixedviT:

absolutur sidideebSi, aTasi kaci struqtura, procentulad

sul umuSevrebi _ 46,6 100,0

maT Soris asaki:

16-29 _ 5,6 12,0

30-49 _ 34,4 73,8

50 da meti _ 6,6 14,2

11. registrirebul umuSevarTa ganawileba ganaTlebis donis mixedviT

absolutur sidideebSi, aTasi kaci struqtura procentulad

umuSevari sul _ 46,6 100,0

maT Soris aqvT

ganaTleba:

dawyebiTi an sabazo _ 0,0 0,0

arasruli saSualo _ 0,5 1,1

sruli saSualo _ 30,1 64,6

umaRlesi _ 16,0 34,3

rogorc vxedavT, Sinameurneobebis gamokvlevebis da dasaqmebis saxelmwifo

samsaxuris monacemebi umuSevrobis dasaxasiaTeblad maCvenebelTa sakmaod farTe

speqtris gamoTvlis saSualebas iZleva. dasaqmebis saxelmwifo samsaxuris

monacemebSi cxadad Cans, rom didia umuSevarTa aRuricxaobis done, ramdenadac



24

dabalia misadmi ndobis xarisxi. cxadia, rom dasaqmebis saxelmwifo samsaxuris

qmedunarianobis amaRlebis SemTxvevaSi is SeiZleba gaxdes umuSevrobis

statistikis mniSvnelovani sainformacio baza.

samuSao Zalis ricxovnobis da misi formirebis, aseve samuSao Zalis

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT dasaqmebis maCveneblebze dayrdnobiT

dgeba samuSao Zalis balansi, romelic gvixasiaTebs arsebul samuSao Zalas da

mis gamoyenebas.

1.6. samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistika

ekonomikuri saqmianobis procesSi adgili aqvs sawarmo-dawesebulebebSi da

organizaciebSi dasaqmebuli samuSao Zalis moZraobas. saqme isaa, rom rogorc

wesi, garkveuli mosazrebebidan gamomdinare adamianebi icvlian samuSao adgils,

mimdinareobs samuSaoze miRebis da ganTavisuflebis uwyveti procesi, romelic

warmoadgens samuSao Zalis moZraobas. aRniSnuli procesis Sedegad adgili aqvs

samuSao Zalis gadanawilebas sawarmoebs, dargebs da regionebs Soris.

Teoriulad es procesebi SeiZleba mimdinareobdes erovnul ekonomikaSi

dasaqmebulTa saerTo ricxovnobis ucvlelobis pirobebSic.

samuSao Zalis moZraoba aris obieqturi procesi da mimdinareobs uwyvetad.

misi gamomwvevi mizezebi SeiZleba iyos mravalnairi: pensiaze gasvla, armiaSi

gawveva, samuSao asakSi Sesvla, ojaxis Seqmna da Sesabamisad sacxovrebeli

adgili Secvla, axali samuSao adgilebis Seqmna, ukeTesi samuSaos povna, SromiTi

konfliqtebi, gardacvaleba da sxva.

samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistikis amocanebia daaxasiaTos samuSao Zalis

moZraobis saerTo moculoba, misi mimarTulebebi, intensivoba, gamomwvevi mizezebi.

dasmuli amocanebis gadasawyvetad samuSao Zalis statistikaSi gamoiTvleba

absoluturi da SefardebiTi sidideebi. absolutur sidideebs miekuTvneba

garkveul periodSi samuSaoze miRebulTa da samuSaodan wasulebis ricxvi.

miRebulTa da wasulebis ricxvis jams ewodeba samuSao Zalis brunva. Sesabamisad,

samuSao Zalis brunva gamoiTvleba samuSaoze miRebis da wasvlis mixedviT.

samuSaodan wasvlis mixedviT samuSao Zalis brunva iyofa aucilebel da

zedmet brunvad.



25

samuSao Zalis aucilebel brunvas miekuTvneba samuSaodan wasvla iseTi

mizezebiT, rogoricaa magaliTad: pensiaze gasvla, gardacvaleba, SromiTi

xelSekrulebis (kontraqtis) damTavreba da kanoniT gaTvaliswinebuli sxva

SemTxvevebi: samxedro samsaxurSi gawveva, dainvalideba, Statebis Semcireba

sawarmos reorganizaciis an gakotrebis Sedegad da sxva.

samuSao Zalis zedmet brunvas miakuTvneben samuSaodan sakuTari surviliT,

disciplinis darRvevis da SromiTi konfliqtebis Sedegad wasulebs. samuSao

Zalis zedmeti brunva cnobilia kadrebis (samuSao Zalis) denadobis saxeliTac

da warmoebis efeqtian funqcionirebaze uaryofiTad moqmedebs, ramdenadac

saWiroa wasulebis Secvla aranaklebi kvalifikaciis mqone samuSao ZaliT rac

dros moiTxovs. Sesabamisad adgili eqneba samuSao drois dakargvas mocemul

periodSi. axali kadrebis miReba moiTxovs maT adaptacias da integracias

mocemul sawarmoSi, rac aseve garkveul fsiqologiur barierebTan aris

dakavSirebuli. amasTan is danaxarjebi. romelic (Tu) gaswia sawarmom wasuli

muSakebis kvalifikaciis asamaRleblad, ubralod ikargeba.

Sesabamisad, saWiro statistikuri informaciis arsebobis pirobebSi samuSao

Zalis moZraobis maCveneblebi SeiZleba gamoTvlili iqnes sawarmos, dargis,

erovnuli ekonomikis, regionebis WrilSi sqesis, asakis, profesiebis, ganaTlebis

donis da sxva niSnebis mixedviT, romelTagan umniSvnelovanesia samuSao Zalis

denadoba mizezebis mixedviT. samuSao Zalis denadobis sulyofili analizi

SeiZleba miRebuli iqnes mxolod misi kompleqsuri statistikur-sociologiuri

gamokvlevis safuZvelze. kerZod, samuSao Zalis denadobis statistikuri,

raodenobrivi analizi Seivseba denadobis mizezebis siRrmiseuli sociologiuri

SeswavliT, Sesabamisi sociologiuri gamokiTxviT, am mizniT Sedgenili kiTxvaris

safuZvelze, romliTac gamoikiTxebian samuSaodan wasulebi. gansakuTrebuli

yuradReba unda mieqces SromiTi konfliqtebis Sedegad gamowveul samuSao Zalis

denadobas.

samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistikuri daxasiaTeba SeuZlebelia momuSaveTa

siobrivi da saSualo siobrivi ricxvis codnis gareSe. sawarmoSi momuSaveTa

siobriv ricxvSi aRiricxeba yvela, vinc mocemul sawarmoSi muSaobs erT dReze

meti xniT. momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi ricxvi gaiangariSeba Tvis ganmavlobaSi.

amisaTvis Tvis yoveli dRis momuSaveTa siobrivi ricxvis jami gaiyofa Tvis

kalendaruli dReebis ricxvze. arasamuSao da uqme dReebis siobriv ricxvad



26

CaiTvleba maTi wina dRis siobrivi ricxvi. arasruli samuSao Tvis SemTxvevaSi

namuSevari dReebis siobrivi ricxvis jami iyofa aseve Tvis kalendaruli dReebis

ricxvze. Tu monacemebi siobrivi ricxvis Sesaxeb saerTod ar gvaqvs raime Tvis

ganmavlobaSi, maSin am Tvis saSualo siobrivi ricxvi SeiZleba miviRoT rogorc

wina Tvis bolo da momdevno Tvis pirveli dRis siobrivi ricxvis jamis saSualo

ariTmetikuli. momuSaveTa saSualoTviuri siobrivi ricxvis safuZvelze saSualo

ariTmetikulis daxmarebiT gamoiTvleba saSualokvartaluri,

saSualonaxevarwliuri da saSualowliuri siobrivi ricxvi, risTvisac sami, eqvsi

da Tormeti Tvis saSualo siobriv ricxvTa jamebi Sesabamisad gaiyofa

samze,eqvsze da Tormetze.

samuSao Zalis moZraobis maxasiaTebeli statistikur maCvenebelTa sistema

moicavs Semdeg maCveneblebs:

1. absoluturi maCveneblebi:

_ samuSaoze miRebulTa ricxvi;

_ samuSaodan wasulebis ricxvi:

_ samuSao Zalis saerTo brunva _ samuSaoze miRebulebisa da samuSaodan

wasulebis ricxvis jami;

_ mudmivad momuSaveTa ricxvi saangariSo periodSi _ miiReba periodis

dasawyisSi momuSaveTa siobriv ricxvs gamoklebuli mocemul periodSi

samuSaodan wasulebi.

2. SefardebiTi maCveneblebi: gamoiTvlebian konkretuli periodis mixedviT,

rogoricaa Tve, kvartali, naxevari weli, weli.

1. samuSao Zalis mudmivobis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

K 1mudmivad momuSaveTa ricxvi

100;momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi ricxvi

(1.8)

2. samuSao Zalis ganaxlebis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

K 2samuSaoze miRebulTa ricxvi


(1.9)

3. samuSao Zalis wasvlis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:



27

K 3samuSaodan ganTavisuflebulTa ricxvi


(1.10)

4. samuSao Zalis denadobis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

K 4samuSaodan sakuTari surviliT wasulebis ricxvi


(1.11)

samuSao Zalis denadobis koeficienti zemoTmotanili formuliT SeiZleba

gamovTvaloT mizezebis mixedviTac, rogoricaa: sakuTari surviliT, disciplinis

darRvevis da SromiTi konfliqtis Sedegad wasulebi. samuSao Zalis denadobis

koeficienti aseve cnobilia rogorc kadrebis denadobis koeficienti.

5. samuSao Zalis saerTo brunvis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogo

K 5samuSaoze miRebulTa da ganTavisuflebulTa ricxvis jami


(1.12)

samuSao Zalis saerTo brunvis koeficienti ( K 5 ) samuSao Zalis ganaxlebis

(K 2 ) da samuSaodan Zalis wasvlis (K 3 ) koeficientebis jamis tolia.

6. samuSao Zalis Canacvlebis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

K 6samuSaoze miRebulTa ricxvi

100;samuSaodan yvela mizeziT ganTavisuflebulTa ricxvi

( 1.13)

Canacvlebis koeficienti SeiZleba miviRoT samuSao Zalis ganaxlebis

koeficientis (K 2 ) gayofiT wasvlis koeficientTan ( K 3 );

K K K : .6 2 3

(1.14)



28

K K 2 3da -s mniSvnelSi erTi da igive sidide aqvT: momuSaveTa saSualo

siobrivi ricxvi, romlebic gayofisas erTmaneTs Sekvecavs da miviRebT K 6 -is

gamosaxulebas.

1.7. Sromis anazRaurebis statistika

Sromis anazRaureba, anu xelfasi warmoadgens Sesrulebuli samuSaosaTvis

daricxul anazRaurebas fuladi Tu naturaluri formiT. is moicavs aseve

sxvadasxva saxis waxalisebebs, Svebulebebis, sadResaswauli dReebis da sxva

umuSevari drois anazRaurebas, romlebic SromiTi kanonmdeblobiT an

individualuri SromiTi xelSekrulebiT eqvemdebareba anazRaurebas.

Sromis anazRaurebis statistikis winaSe dgas Semdegi amocanebi:

1. xelfasis fondis moculobis gansazRvra;

2. xelfasis donis da dinamikis analizi;

3. xelfasis diferenciaciis analizi;

4. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi.

xelfasis fondis moculobis gansazRvra. xelfasis fondi warmoadgens

sawarmoebis da organizaciebis mier Sromis anazRaurebisaTvis daricxul Tanxas.

xelfasis fondi moicavs sxvadasxva danamatebsac, rogoricaa premiebi,

anazRaureba avadmyofobis SemTxvevaSi da a.S.

sawarmoebis da organizaciebis xelfasis fondebis jami gvaZlevs dargis

xelfasis fonds, xolo dargebis xelfasis fondebis jami – erovnuli ekonomikis

xelfasis fonds. statistikis mier aRiricxeba xelfasis saaTobrivi, dRiuri da

Tveobrivi fondebi – romlebic ukavSirdeba Sesabamis namuSevar dros. xelfasis

kvartaluri, naxevarwliuri da wliuri fondebi miiReba 3, 6 da 12 Tvis xelfasis

fondebis SekrebiT.

xelfasis fondi mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri kategoriaa, romelze

dayrdnobiTac gaiangariSeba saSualo xelfasis maCveneblebi. is warmoadgens

produqciis TviTRirebulebis Semadgenel nawils. xelfasis fondis absoluturi

moculobis maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis da samuSao

Zalaze danaxarjebis analizisTvis da a.S.



29

xelfasis donis da dinamikis analizi. xelfasis done xasiaTdeba saSualo

xelfasis maCvenebliT da gaiangariSeba xelfasis fondis SefardebiT namuSevar

drosTan an rogorc wesi dasaqmebulTa ricxvTan.

statistikaSi gamoiTvleba saSualo xelfasis Semdegi maCveneblebi:

saSualo saaTobrivi xelfasi: gamoiTvleba xelfasis saaTobrivi fondis

SefardebiT namuSevari kac-saaTebis raodenobasTan. kac-saaTi warmoadgens

srulad namuSevar erT saaTs.

saSualo dRiuri xelfasi: gamoiTvleba xelfasis dRiuri fondis SefardebiT

namuSevari kac-dReebis raodenobasTan. kac-dRe aris namuSevari erTi dRe. is

moicavs momuSavisgan damoukidebel dRis Siga mocdenebsac.

saSualoTviuri xelfasi: gamoiTvleba xelfasis Tviuri fondis SefardebiT

Tvis ganmavlobaSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvTan. xelfasis Tviuri fondi moicavs yvela

saxis anazRaurebas.

saSualo kvartaluri, naxevarwliuri da wliuri xelfasi : gamoiTvleba

saSualoTviuri xelfasis analogiurad. Tumca gamoTvlebis gasamartiveblad

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo statistikis praqtikaSi dasaqmebulis saSualoTviuri

xelfasis misaRebad saSualowliuri xelfasi gaiyofa 12-ze.

saSualo xelfasi gamoiTvleba formuliT:

T

F f ;

( 1.15)

sadac f _ aris saSualo xelfasi;

F _ xelfasis fondi;

T _ dasaqmebulTa ricxvi.

xelfasis fondma saqarTveloSi 2000 wels Seadgina 1596 milioni lari, xolo

dasaqmebulTa ricxvma – 1,8393 milioni. Sesabamisma maCveneblebma 2005 wels

Seadgina 4275,0 milioni lari da 1,7446 milioni dasaqmebuli.

2000 wels erTi dasaqmebulis saSualowliuri xelfasi gaiangariSeba

rogorc:



30

1596 mln.867, 7 lars.

1,8393 mln. dasaqmebuli

lari

erTi dasaqmebulis saSualoTviuri xelfasi 2000 wels toli iqneba 867,7 : 12

= 72,3 laris.analogiuri gaangariSebiT 2005 wlisTvis saqarTveloSi erTi dasaqmebulis

saSualowliurma xelfasma Seadgina 2450,4 lari, xolo saSualoTviurma xelfasma

– 204,2 lari.

xelfasis donis dinamika Seiswavleba indeqsebis saSualebiT. kerZod,

1

0

f

f J = .

( 1.16)

mocemuli indeqsis Tanaxmad 2000-2005 wlebSi xelfasis donis zrda

saqarTveloSi Seadgens 282,4%.204,2

2, 824 100=282,4%.72,3

xelfasis donis dinamikasTan erTad statistikis mniSvnelovan amocanas

warmoadgens xelfasis donis dinamikaze moqmedi faqtorebis gavlenis gazomva.

saqme isaa, rom erovnul ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa xelfasis done yalibdeba

saqmianobis sxvadasxva dargebis saSualo xelfasebis Sedegad. Sesabamisad,

romelime dargSi saSualo xelfasis zrda an Semcireba aisaxeba mTeli ekonomikis

saSualo xelfasis zrdaze an Semcirebaze. meore mxriv, Tu dasaqmebulebSi

gaizrdeba an Semcirdeba maRal (dabal) xelfasian dargSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvi

da xvedri wili, esec gazrdis an Seamcirebs saSualo xelfasis maCvenebels.

Sesabamisad, erovnul ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa saSualo xelfasis

cvlilebaze moqmedebs ori faqtori: saSualo xelfasis cvlileba calkeul

dargebSi da dasaqmebulTa ricxvis (xvedri wilis) cvlileba dargebis mixedviT,

e.w. `struqturuli Zvrebi~.

orive faqtoris gavlenas xelfasis doneze vadgenT xelfasis cvalebadi

Semadgenlobis indeqsiT, romelic gamoiTvleba formuliT:

1 0

1 0

F F

T T : ,

J = rac igivea, 1

0

f

f .

( 1.17)



31

Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom xelfasis fondi1

F gamomdinare 1.15 formulidan

tolia T f da am gamosaxulebas F-is nacvlad SevitanT 1.17 formulaSi, miviRebT

xelfasis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqss.

1 0

1 0

T T

T T

1 0:

f f J =

( 1.18)

xelfasis saerTo donis cvlilebaze calkeul dargebSi saSualo xelfasis

cvlilebis gavlenas vadgenT xelfasis fiqsirebuli Semadgenlobis indeqsiT.

1 1

1 1

T T

T T

1 0:

f f J =

( 1.19)

xelfasis saerTo donis cvlilebaze dasaqmebis dargobrivi struqturis

cvlilebis gasazomad gamoiyeneba xelfasis struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi.

1 0

1 0

T T

T T

0 0:

f f J =

(1.20)

mocemuli indeqsebis gaangariSeba vaCvenoT saqarTvelos samTomopovebiTi da

damamuSavebeli mrewvelobis magaliTze 2000-2005 wlebSi. gamoTvlebisTvis

amosavali monacemebi motanilia 1.5 da 1.6 cxrilebSi. ori qvedargiT

SemovifargleT gamoTvlebis gamartivebis mizniT.

cxrili 1.5

dasaqmebulTa ricxovnoba da saSualoTviuri xelfasi

saqarTvelos mrewvelobaSi 2000-2004 wlebSi

dasaqmebulTa

ricxvi, aTasi

dasaqmebulTa

xvedri wili

saSualoTviuri

xelfasi, lari

2000 0T 2004 1T D 2000d0 2004 d1 2000 0 f 20041

f



32

samTomopovebiTi

mrewveloba6,6 3,9 0,057 0,041 119,3 179,5

damamuSavebeli

mrewveloba109,3 90,8 0,943 0,959 99,3 183,8

sul mrewveloba 115,9 94,7 1,0 1,0 100,4 183,6

gamoTvlebis Casatareblad cxrilis monacemebze dayrdnobiT saWiroa jer

gaviangariSoT xelfasis fondebi sabaziso 0T0( ) f da mimdinare (1

T1 f )

periodebisaTvis orive qvedargis da mTlianad mrewvelobisaTvis.

gamoTvlebisaTvis aseve saWiroa mimdinare periodis xelfasis fondis

gaangariSeba sabaziso periodis saSualo xelfasis pirobebSi 1T0( ) f . xelfasis

fondebis moculobas ase arapirdapir gamovTvliT imis gamo, rom maTi moculoba

gamoqveynebuli ar aris. Sesabamisi gaangariSebebi motanilia cxrilSi 1.6.

cxrili 1.6

monacemebi xelfasis indeqsebis gasaangariSeblad

saqarTveloSi 2000-2004 wlebSi lari

0T0 f 1T0 f 1T1 f

samTomopovebiTi mrewveloba 787 380 465 270 700 050

damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 10 853 490 9 016 440 16 689 040

sul mrewveloba 11 640 870 9 481 710 17 389 090

zemoTmotanili monacemebis safuZvelze gamovTvliT xelfasis cvalebadi

Semadgenlobis indeqss:

1 0

1 0

T T

T T

1 0 17 389 090 11 640 870 183,6: 182, 8%.

115 900 100,494 200

:

f f J =



33

miRebuli indeqsi niSnavs, rom saSualo xelfasis zrdis tempma saqarTvelos

mrewvelobaSi 2000-2004 wlebSi Seadgina 182,8%. aRniSnuli zrda gamowveulia

samTomopovebiT da damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi xelfasis donis zrdiT da

dasaqmebis struqturaSi momxdari ZvrebiT.

TiToeul dargSi xelfasis donis cvlilebis gavlenas mrewvelobaSi

dasaqmebulTa xelfasis saerTo donis cvlilebaze vadgenT xelfasis

fiqsirebuli Semadgenlobis indeqsiT:

1 1

1 1

T T

T T

1 0 17 389 090 9 481 710 183,6: 183, 4%.

94 700 100,194 700

:

f f J =

saqarTvelos mrewvelobaSi xelfasis donis cvlilebaze 2000-2004 wlebSi

dasaqmebis struqturaSi momxdari cvlilebebis gavlenas vadgenT xelfasis

struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsiT:

1 0

1 0

T T

T T

0 0 9 481 710 11 640 870 100,4: 0,997, e.i. 99,7%.

94 700 115 900 100,4:

f f J =

Cvens mier zemoTCatarebuli gamoTvlebiT aRmoCnda, rom

1. xelfasis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqsi Seadgens 182,8%;

2. xelfasis fiqsirebuli Semadgenlobis indeqsi – 183,4%;

3. xelfasis struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi _ 99,7%.

indeqsebis urTierTkavSiris Tanaxmad:

1,828 = 1,834 • 0,997

Cvens mier Catarebuli gaangariSebebiT aseve aRmoCnda, rom xelfasisdoneebis zrdam calkeul dargebSi dadebiTad imoqmeda xelfasis saerTo donis

zrdaze da rom ara dasaqmebis struqturaSi momxdari uaryofiTi Zvrebi,

romelmac xelfasis done umniSvnelod, 0,3%-iT Seamcira, xelfasis saerTo donis

zrda ufro meti iqneboda. yovel SemTxvevaSi, struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi



34

saerTod rom ar Secvliliyo da darCeniliyo Turdac 100,0%-is doneze, xelfasis

done saqarTvelos mrewvelobaSi gaizrdeboda 183,4 da ara 182,8%-iT.

struqturuli Zvrebis uaryofiTi Sedegi gamoiwvia im garemoebam, rom

samTomopovebiT mrewvelobaSi, sadac sabaziso periodSi xelfasis done mTeli20,0%-iT aRemateboda damamuSavebeli mrewvelobis xelfasis dones, dasaqmebulTa

xvedri wili 5,7-dan 4,1-mde, e.i. 1,6%-iT Semcirda. es ki sakmarisi aRmoCnda

struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsis 0,3%-iT Sesamcireblad.

saindeqso analizi saSualebas gvaZlevs davadginoT saSualo xelfasis

absolutur cvlilebaze calkeuli faqtoris gavlena.

Cvens SemTxvevaSi, 2000-2004 wlebSi saSualo xelfasi saqarTvelos

mrewvelobaSi 100,4 laridan 183,6 laramde gaizarda, e.i. absoluturi matebatolia 83,2 laris.

mrewvelobaSi saSualo xelfasis absoluturi mateba, gamowveuli

samTomopovebiT da damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi saSualo xelfasis cvlilebiT,

gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad:

1 1

1 1

T T

T T

1 0 17 389 090 9 481 710183,6_100,1=83,5 lars.

94 70094 700

f f

f =

e.i. mocemuli faqtoris gavleniT xelfasi gaizarda 83,5 lariT.

xelfasis absoluturi mateba, gamowveuli calkeul dargebSi dasaqmebulTa

xvedri wilis cvlilebiT gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad:

0

1

01

0

T ΣT f

T ΣT

0 9 481 710 11 640 870100, 1 - 100, 4 = -0, 3 lars.

94 700 115 900

f f =

Catarebuli analiziT miviReT: 2000-2004 wlebSi saqarTvelos mrewvelobaSi

dasaqmebulTa xelfasis done gaizarda 83,2 lariT, aqedan:

1. samTomopovebiT da damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi dasaqmebulTa xelfasis

donis cvlilebis gavleniT gaizarda 83,5 lariT;



35

2. TiToeul dargSi dasaqmebulTa xvedri wilis cvlilebis gavleniT

Semcirda 0,3 lariT; e.i. saerTo mateba, 83,2 lari tolia:

83,2 = 83,5 _ 0,3 lari.

saindeqso analiziT aseve SeiZleba gaviangariSoT mrewvelobaSi xelfasis

fondis cvlileba mimdinare, 2004 wels sabaziso, 2000 welTan SedarebiT.

xelfasis fondis moculoba icvleba sami faqtoris gavleniT:

1. TiToeul dargSi xelfasis saSualo donis cvlilebiT;

2. TiToeul dargSi dasaqmebulTa xvedri wilis cvlilebiT;

3. dasaqmebulTa saerTo ricxvis cvlilebiT.

gaviangariSoT TiToeulis gavlena calk-calke.

1. xelfasis fondis cvlilebaze TiToeul dargSi xelfasis saSualo donis

cvlilebis gavlenas vadgenT formuliT:

1 1ΔF T T1 01 17 389 090 9 481 710 7 907 380 lars; f f

2. xelfasis fondis cvlileba dasaqmebis struqturis gavleniT gaiangariSeba

Semdegi formuliT:

1 1ΔF T T0 02 9 481 710 9 507 880 - 26 170 lars; f f

3. xelfasis fondis cvlilebaze dasaqmebulTa saerTo ricxvis cvlilebis

gavlenas vadgenT Semdegi formuliT:

1 0ΔF T T003 9 507 880 11 640 870 - 2 132 990 lars; f f

mTlianad xelfasis fondi mrewvelobaSi 2000-2004 wlebSi gaizarda 5 748 220

lariT. aRniSnuli zrda iangariSeba cxrili 1.6 monacemebiT, rogorc

1 0 0ΔF = T F T1 f . aRniSnuli zrda calkeuli faqtorebis saerTo gavlenis

Sedegia. amasTan calkeul dargebSi xelfasis donis zrdam gamoiwvia mrewvelobis

xelfasis fondis zrda 7 907 380 lariT, dasaqmebulTa struqturis cvlilebam –

misi Semcireba 26 170 lariT, xolo dasaqmebulTa ricxvis Semcirebam gamoiwvia

xelfasis fondis Semcireba 2 132 990 lariT. Sesabamisad:



36

ΔF = ΔF ΔF ΔF1 2 3

( 1.21)

e.i. 5 748 220 = 7 907 380 – 26 170 – 2 132 990.

xelfasis diferenciaciis analizi. dasaqmebulis xelfasis sidide

damokidebulia mis ganaTlebaze, kvalifikaciaze, asakze da sxva faqtorebze,

romlebic iwveven dasaqmebuli samuSao Zalis Sromis anazRaurebis

diferenciacias.

xelfasis diferenciacias adgili aqvs makrodonezec, rogoricaa: ekonomikuri

saqmianobis saxeebis da sqesis mixedviT, aseve regionebis mixedviT.

saqarTvelos statistikis komitetis monacemebiT 2005 wlisaTvis ekonomikaSi

dasaqmebulTa saSualoTviuri nominaluri xelfasi Seadgenda 204,2 lars;

mSeneblobaSi – 296,4 lars, jandacvasa da socialur momsaxurebaSi – 99,5 lars,

ganaTlebaSi – 92,5 lars, safinanso saqmianobaSi – 1049,2 lars, saxelmwifo

mmarTvelobaSi – 342,4 lars da a.S.

amave 2005 wels kacebis saSualoTviuri xelfasi toli iyo 267,9 laris,

xolo qalebis 131,1 laris, e.i. 136,8 lariT (orjer da metad) naklebi.

saqarTveloSi istoriulad arsebuli qalis kultis pirobebSi, saxezea maTi

diskriminaciis samarcxvino faqti (lekvi lomisa sworia, Zu iyos Tunda xvadia?).

ekonomikaSi daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa saSualoTviuri nominaluri xelfasi,

dalagebuli klebadi ranJirebiT 2004 wels saqarTvelos regionebis mixedviT,

Semdeg suraTs iZleva:

saqarTvelo sul 156,8

maT Soris:

q.Tbilisi 218,7 mcxeTa-mTianeTi 89,2

aWaris ar 155,1 guria 89,0

qvemo qarTli 142,8 kaxeTi 83,7

samegrelo-zemo svaneTi 127,2 raWa-leCxumi da



37

Sida qarTli 112,0 qvemo svaneTi 69,3

imereTi 110,3

samcxe-javaxeTi 103,8

1.8. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi

danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze warmoadgens sabazro ekonomikis damaxasiaTebel

kategorias. is warmoadgens danaxarjebs, romlebic dakavSirebulia samuSao Zalis

daqiravebasa da uzrunvelyofasTan.

statistikis amocanebia samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis donis, struqturis da

dinamikis dadgena.samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis done gaizomeba danaxarjebis moculobiT

saSualod erT muSakze gaangariSebiT. saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi aRniSnuli

maCvenebeli 2002 wels 1806,47 laridan 2004 wels gaizarda 2403,4 laramde, xolo

2005 wels – 3051,8 laramde.

samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis struqturis Sesaswavlad saWiroa danaxarjebis

dajgufeba erTgvarovan jgufebad, xolo Semdeg ganisazRvreba TiToeulis xvedri

wili danaxarjebis mTlian jamSi. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis saerTaSoriso

standartuli klasifikacia moicavs danaxarjebis 10 jgufs:

1. xelfasi;

2. arasamuSao drois anazRaureba;

3. premiebi da saCuqrebi;

4. kveba, sasmelebi da sxva anazRaurebebi naturaluri formiT;

5. danaxarjebi momuSaveTa sacxovrebelze, romelsac Tavis Tavze iRebs

damqiravebeli;

6. damqiraveblis xarjebi socialur uzrunvelyofaze;

7. danaxarjebi profesiul momzadebaze;

8. danaxarjebi socialur momsaxurebaze;

9. sxva danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze;

10. gadasaxadebi, ganxiluli, rogorc samuSao Zalis danaxarjebi.



38

samuSao Zalaze gaweuli danaxarjebis struqtura saqarTveloSi 2005 wels

saSualod erT muSakze gaangariSebiT motanilia qvemoT:1

danaxarjebi lari procentulad

saSualo danaxarjebi, maT Soris: 3051,8 100,0

1. xelfasis fondi 2450,8 80,3

2. sawarmos danaxarjebi muSakTa

sacxovrebel binebze 2,2 0,1

3. danaxarjebi kulturul, saganmanaTleblo

gamajansaRebel da sxva RonisZiebebze 0,9 0,0

4. danaxarjebi kadrebis momzadeba-

gadamzadebaze, saswavlo Svebulebebze da sxv. 3,5 0,1

5. socdazRvevis yvela saxis danaricxi

xelfasis fondidan 482,7 15,8

6. sawarmos saxsrebidan gacemuli socialuri

daxmarebis Tanxebi 6,1 0,2

7. samuSao Zalis Senaxvaze gaweuli sxva

danaxarjebi 105,6 3,5

rogorc vxedavT, ZiriTadi danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze modis xelfasze da

socdazRvevis danaricxebze.

saqarTvelos statistika samuSao Zalaze gaweuli danaxarjebis Sesaxebinformacias moipovebs da amuSavebs ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviTac.

2005 wels saSualod erT muSakze gaangariSebuli samuSao Zalaze gaweuli

danaxarjebi yvelaze dabalia meTevzeobaSi – 1310,5 lari, ganaTlebaSi – 1350,9

lari, janmrTelobis dacvasa da socialur daxmarebaSi – 1452,7 lari, xolo

1 saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006. Tb., 2007, gv. 55



39

yvelaze maRalia – safinanso saqmianobaSi – 15 445,7 lari da saxelmwifo

mmarTvelobaSi – 5 348,6 lari.

1.9. Sromis nayofierebis statistika

Sromis nayofiereba aris adamianis unari, drois erTeulSi awarmoos

produqciis garkveuli raodenoba. amis mixedviT gaiangariSeben saaTobriv, dRiur,

Tviur, kvartalur da wliur Sromis nayofierebas.

Sromis nayofierebis statistikis amocanebia gansazRvros Sromis

nayofierebis done, dinamika da masze moqmedi faqtorebi.

Sromis nayofierebis done – и gaiangariSeba warmoebuli produqciis

moculobis – q SefardebiT dasaqmebulTa ricxvze, Т. kerZod,

qT

=

и (1.22)

mocemuli maCvenebeli aris saSualo sidide da gviCvenebs saSualod erT

dasaqmebulze warmoebuli produqciis moculobas.

Sromis nayofierebis Sebrunebuli maCvenebelia Sromatevadoba, romelic

gamoiTvleba Semdeg formuliT:

Tt =

q,

(1.23)

sadac t aris Sromatevadoba;

T - produqciis warmoebaze daxarjuli dro;

q - warmoebuli produqciis moculoba.

Sromis nayofierebis donis dinamikas vaxasiaTebT indeqsebiT.

1

qq

T T

01

0 0

: .Q

1и

и

J =

(1.24)

Tu mocemul formulaSi SevitanT formula 1.22-idan miRebul q -s

mniSvnelobas, q = и -s, maSin formula 8.24 miiRebs Semdeg saxes:



40

T

TT

01 1

01

: .

0 и и

J =

(1.25)

mocemuli indeqsi aris Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis

indeqsi.

rodesac vzomavT Sromis nayofierebis donis dinamikas, davuSvaT ori an meti

dargisaTvis, maSin maTi saerTo Sromis nayofierebis dinamikaze imoqmedebs ori

faqtori: Sromis nayofierebis doneTa cvlileba TviToeul dargSi da

struqturuli Zvrebi. struqturuli Zvrebis gavlena niSnavs, rom calkeul

dargSi Sromis nayofierebis ucvlelobis pirobebSic ki saerTo Sromis

nayofiereba gaizrdeba, TuU gaizrdeba im dargSi dasaqmebulTa xvedri wili,

romelSic maRalia Sromis nayofiereba.

Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqsze moqmedebs orive

faqtori.

Sromis nayofierebis donis dinamikaze moqmedi faqtorebi calk_calke

gaizomeba Sromis nayofierebis fiqsirebuli da struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsiT.

fiqsirebuli indeqsiT vadgenT saerTo Sromis nayofierebaze TviToeul

dargSi Sromis nayofierebis cvlilebis gavlenas. misi formulaa:

T

TT

1 1 1

11

:

0 и и

J =

(1.26)

struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsiT vadgenT saerTo Sromis nayofierebaze

dasaqmebis dargobrivi struqturis cvlilebis gavlenas. misi formulaa:

T

TT

1 0 0

01

:

0 и и

J = .

( 1.27)

Sromis nayofierebis donis, dinamikis da Sromis nayofierebis doneze moqmedi

faqtorebis gavlenis gazomva movaxdinoT saqarTvelos mompovebeli da

damamuSavebeli mrewvelobis magaliTze.



41

cxrili 1.7

monacemebi saqarTvelos mompovebeli da damamuSavebeli

mrewvelobis Sesaxeb 2001-2005 wlebSi.1

saqmianobis

saxe

warmoebuli

produqcia,

mln.lari

dasaqmebulTa

saSualo wliuri

ricxvi,

aTasi kaci

dasaqmebulebi

procentulad

Sromis

nayofierebis

done, larebSi

2001 q0 2005

q1

2001

T0

2005

T1

2001 2005 2001и 0 2005и 1

samTo

mopovebiTi

68,8 154,3 6,5 8,6 10,0 12,2 10585 17942

damamuSavebeli 657,2 1552,7 58,7 61,7 90,0 87,8 11196 25165

sul

mrewveloba725,0 1707,0 65,2 70,3 100,0 100,0 11135 24282

rogorc gamoTvlebi gviCvenebs, 2001-2005 wlebSi Sromis nayofierebis done

saqarTvelos samTomopovebiT mrewvelobaSi 10585 laridan gaizarda 17942 laramde,

e.i. 1,7-jer, xolo damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi 11 196 laridan 25165 laramde, e.i.

2,2-jer. orive dargSi Sromis nayofiereba gaizarda 11 135 laridan 24 282 laramde,

e.i. 2,18-jer.

es ukanaskneli warmoadgens Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis

indeqss:

1 24 2822, 18, e.i. 218,0%.

11 135

й

0

и

и

J

(1.28)

gamovTvaloT Sromis nayofierebis fiqsirebuli Semadgenlobis indeqsi.

1 saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006, Tb., 2007, gv. 168-170



42

T

TT

1

1

17 942 8,6 + 25 165 61,71 1 : :70,3

1

0 и и

J =

10 585 8,6 + 11196 61,7 154 301 1 552 680

: :70,3 70, 3

91 031 690 793 1 706 981 781 824: : 24 282 : 11 121

70, 3 70, 3 70, 3

2,18, e.i.

218,0%.

gamovTvaloT Sromis nayofierebis struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi.

T

TT

0

0

1 0 : 11 121 : 11 135

1

0 и и

J = 1,01 e.i. 100,0%

Cvens mier Catarebuli gamoTvlebiT aRmoCnda, rom saqarTvelos

samTomopovebiT da damamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi Sromis nayofiereba gaizarda 218,0

procentiT, romelic mTlianad modioda Sromis nayofierebis zrdaze calkeul

qvedargebSi. struqturul faqtors saerTo Sromis nayofierebis zrdaze

araviTari gavlena ar mouxdenia, ramdenadac struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsi darCa

ucvleli 100,0%-is doneze.

indeqsebis urTierTkavSiris Tanaxmad: Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi

Semadgenlobis indeqsi, 2,18, fiqsirebuli, 2,18 da struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsis,

1,0-is namravlis tolia:

2.18 = 2.18 • 1,0

erovnuli ekonomikis doneze Sromis nayofiereba gamoiTvleba mTliani Sida

produqtis (q ) SefardebiT dasaqmebulTa ricxvTan ( ). aRniSnuli maCveneblis

gamosaTvlelad saWiro monacemebi mogvaqvs qvemoT cxril 1.8-Si.

cxrili 1.8

monacemebi mSp_sa da erovnul ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa

Sesaxeb saqarTveloSi 2001-2005 wlebSi.

1 ganayofi tolia 99,874-is.



43

mSp

mln.lari

dasaqmebulTa

saSualowliuri

ricxvi, aTasi

kaci

Sromis

nayofiereba

lari

procentulad 2005w.

2001 welTan

2001

q0

2005

q1

2001

T0

2005

1T

2001

0и

2005

1и mSp

dasaqmebulTa

saSualo

wliuri

ricxvi

Sromis

nayofiereba

6674,0 11621,0 1878,0 1745,0 3554 6660 174,1 92,9 187,4

warmoebuli mSp-s moculobaze moqmedebs ori faqtori: dasaqmebulTa ricxvi

da Sromis nayofiereba. ori periodisaTvis mSp-s cvlilebas gavzomavT mSp-s

saerTo indeqsiT. Tu mSp-s gamovsaxavT rogorc T,и maSin mSps saerTo indeqsi

toli iqneba;

T

qT

1

0

.=

1

0

и

и

J (1.29)

mSps saerTo indeqsi cxril 8.8_Si gamoTvlilia da Seadgens 174,1%.

mSps saerTo moculobis cvlilebaze dasaqmebulTa ricxvis cvlilebis

gavlenas gavzomavT dasaqmebis indeqsiT, romelic Semdegi saxisaa:

T

T T

1

0

.=

1

1

и

и J

(1.30)

konkretulad kiT

1745 6660 116210,929, e.i. 92,9%.

1878 6660 12507

J

aRniSnuli maCvenebeli niSnavs, rom saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa

ricxvis Semcirebis gamo 2001-2005 wlebSi mSp Semcirda 7,1%-iT.



44

mSp-s saerTo moculobis cvlilebaze Sromis nayofierebis cvlilebis

gavlenas gavzomavT Sromis nayofierebis indeqsiT, romelic Semdegi saxisaa:

T

T

0

0

1

0 и

и

и J .

(1.31)

konkretulad6660 1878 12507

1, 874, e.i. 187,4%.3534 1878 6674

и J

aRniSnuli indeqsi niSnavs, rom 2001_2005 wlebSi mSp Sromis nayofierebis

xarjze gaizrdeboda 187,4%-iT, rom ara dasaqmebis donis Semcireba. indeqsebis

urTierTkavSiris Tanaxmad: mSp-s indeqsi dasaqmebis da Sromis nayofierebis

indeqsebis namravlis tolia.

1,741 = 0,929 1,874.

indeqsebis mricxvelsa da mniSvnels Soris sxvaobebi gvaZlevs mSp-s saerTo

moculobis cvlilebaSi calkeuli faqtoris absolutur mniSvnelobas. kerZod,

2001-2005 wlebSi:

mSp gaizarda + 4947 mln. lariT;

dasaqmebis SemcirebiT Semcirda _ 886 mln. lariT;

Sromis nayofierebiT gaizarda + 5833 mln. lariT.

e. i. 4947 = 5833 _ 886

meorenairad mSp-s absoluturi mateba faqtorebad SeiZleba daiSalos

Semdegi formuliT:

1 0 0Δq = (T T T0) ( ) , 1 1и и и

(1.32)

e.i. 4947 mln. = (1745 _ 1878) 6660 + (6660 _ 3544) 1745 =

_ 133 6660 + 3106 1745 = _ 886 mln.lari + 5833 mln.lari.

aRniSnuli gaangariSebebi gviCvenebs, rom dasaqmebulTa ricxvi rom ar

Semcirebuliyo, mxolod amis Sedegad mSp moimatebda 886 milioni lariT da mSp-s

_ moculoba saqarTveloSi 2005 wels 11 621 milionis nacvlad toli iqneboda

12 507 milioni laris (11 621 + 886).

Sesabamisad, mosaxleobis dasaqmebis donis zrdas aqvs umniSvnelovanesi

rogorc socialuri, ise ekonomikuri mniSvneloba.



45

Tema 2. ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

- erovnuli simdidris zogadi koncefcia da gansazRvra

- aqtivebis klasifikacia erovnul simdidreSi

- ZiriTadi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

- ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefasebis saxeebi



46

- ZiriTadi kapitalis balansi

- ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTa

- ZiriTadi kapitalis mdgomareobis, moZraobisa da vargisianobis

maCveneblebi

- ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebis maCveneblebi

- ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamikis maCveneblebi

- sabrunavi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

- sabrunavi kapitaliT uzrunvelyofisa da gamoyenebis maCveneblebi

qveynis erovnuli simdidris obieqturi da sruli Sefaseba, misi

struqturisa da dinamikis Seswavla statistikis mniSvnelovan amocanad

gvevlineba. es monacemebi aucilebelia saxelmwifo marTvis

organoebisaTvis, raTa ganaxorcielon ekonomikuri ganviTarebis analizi,

ekonomikuri politikis SemuSaveba, gadawyvetilebebis miReba arsebuli

resursebis gamoyenebis efeqtianobis amaRlebisaTvis, dabegvris srulyofis

problemebis gadawyveta. erovnuli simdidris Sesaxeb monacemebi

aucilebelia samecniero-kvleviTi dawesebulebebisaTvis, romlebic

Seiswavlian makroekonomikas, ageben prognozul modelebs, aanalizeben

ekonomikuri zrdis faqtorebs, gamoikevleven ekonomikaze ekologiuri

procesebis zegavlenas, atareben alternatiul gaangariSebebs, afarToeben

ekonomikuri analizis sazRvrebs. garda amisa, qveynis erovnuli simdidris

Sefasebam SeiZleba daainteresos investorebi, maT Soris, ucxoelebi.

2.1. erovnuli simdidris zogadi koncefcia da gansazRvra

erovnuli simdidris koncefcia, romelic rekomendebulia erovnul

angariSTa sistema-93-Si SeiZleba mokled Semdegnairad warmovadginoT:

erovnuli simdidre _ es aris mocemuli qveynis rezidenti instituciuri

erTeulebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami raime TariRisaTvis

(wlis dasawyisSi an bolosaTvis).



47

kapitalis wminda Rirebuleba _ esaa instituciuri erTeulis yvela

ekonomikuri aqtivis (arafinansuri da finansuri) Rirebulebasa da maT

finansur valdebulebaTa sidides Soris sxvaoba.

mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis erovnuli simdidre udris arafinansuri

aqtivebis Rirebulebas damatebuli wminda finansuri moTxovnebi danarCenmsofliosTan. erovnuli simdidre SeiZleba agreTve gansazRvruli iyos,

rogorc ekonomikis seqtorebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami, maTi

finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis gaTvaliswinebiT. erovnuli

simdidris gaangariSebisas mxedvelobaSi miiReba mxolod sazRvargareTis

finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis saldo, vinaidan erovnuli

ekonomikis seqtorebs Soris warmoqmnili finansuri aqtivebi da

valdebulebebi urTierTgdaifareba.

erovnul simdidreSi CarTuli unda iyos mxolod is aqtivebi, romlebzec

konkretul sameurneo subieqtebs SeuZliaT gaavrcelon sakuTrebis ufleba (aseTi aqtivebs ekonomikuri aqtivebi ewodeba).

erovnul simdidres ar miekuTvneba moZiebuli bunebrivi resursebi,

romlebic ama Tu im mizezis gamo ar iyo CarTuli ekonomikur procesSi, ar

warmoadgens konkretuli instituciuri erTeulebis sakuTrebas. yvela

aqtivi da valdebuleba unda Sefasdes im momentisaTvis arsebul sabazro

fasebSi da ara maTi SeZenis fasebSi, rasac xSirad aqvs adgili

sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi.

2.2. aqtivebis klasifikacia erovnul simdidreSi

ekonomikuri aqtivebi _ es aris Rirebulebis mqone obieqtebi, romlebzec

instituciuri erTeulebis mier individualurad an koleqtiurad

vrceldeba sakuTrebis ufleba da romelTa flobiT (an gamoyenebiT) maT

flobelebs garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi SeuZliaT ekonomikuri

sargeblis miReba.

aqtivebs ar miekuTvneba adamianuri kapitali, bunebrivi aqtivebi, romlebic

ar iTvleba ekonomikur aqtivebad (magaliTad, sahaero sivrce) da garantiis

tipis pirobiTi aqtivebi, romlebic ar warmoadgenen finansur aqtivebs(magaliTad, valis dafarvis garantia, romelic SemoTavazebulia mesame

mxaris mier, sakredito xazi da a. S.).

erovnul angariSTa sistema-93-is Sesabamisad yvela aqtivi iyofa sam

ZiriTad jgufad _ arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi, arafinansuri

arawarmoebuli aqtivebi da finansuri aqtivebi:



48

I. arafinansuri aqtivebi

1. arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi

1.1. ZiriTadi kapitali

1.1.1. materialuri ZiriTadi kapitali

sacxovrebeli binebi

sxva Senobebi da nagebobebi

manqanebi da mowyobilobebi

kultivirebadi aqtivebi.

1.1.2. aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali

sasargeblo wiaRiseulis moZieba

programuli uzrunvelyofa (kompiuterebis)

literaturis, xelovnebisa da gasarTobi Janris nawarmoebebis

originalebi

sxva aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali

1.2. materialuri sabrunavi kapitalis maragebi

1.2.1. masalebisa da nedleulis sawarmoo maragebi

1.2.2. daumTavrebeli warmoeba.

1.2.3. mza produqcia

1.2.4. saqoneli xelmeored gasayidad.

1.3. faseulobani

1.3.1. Zvirfasi qvebi da liTonebi

1.3.2. antikvariati da xelovnebis sxva nimuSebi

1.3.3. sxva faseulobebi

2. arafinansuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

2.1. materialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi



49

2.1.1. miwa

2.1.2. sasargeblo wiaRiseuli

2.1.3. arakultivirebadi biologiuri resursebi

2.1.4. wylis resursebi

2.2. aramaterialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

2.2.1. dapatentebuli obieqtebi

2.2.2. xelSekrulebebi arendis Sesaxeb da sxva gadasacemi xelSekrulebebi

2.2.3. nayidi `gudvili~ (saqmiani kavSirebisa da reputaciis pirobiTi

Rirebuleba)

2.2.4. sxva aramaterialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebi.

II. finansuri aqtivebi

1. monetaruli oqro da nasesxobis specialuri uflebebi

2. naRdi fuli da depozitebi

3. fasiani qaRaldebi, aqciebis garda

4. sesxebi

5. aqciebi da kapitalSi monawileobis sxva saxeebi

6. dazRvevis teqnikuri rezervebi

7. kreditorebisa da debitorebis sxva angariSebi.

arafinansuri aqtivebi _ instituciuri erTeulebis mflobelobaSi

arsebuli obieqtebia, romelTa flobas, Senaxvasa da gamoyenebas moaqvs

realuri an potenciuri ekonomikuri sargebeli drois garkveuli periodis

ganmavlobaSi. warmoSobis mixedviT isini iyofa warmoebul da

arawarmoebul aqtivebad.

arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi iqmneba sawarmoo procesis Sedegad da

Sedgeba sami ZiriTadi elementisagan: ZiriTadi kapitali, materialuri

sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebi da faseulobani.



50

2.3. ZiriTadi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

ZiriTadi kapitali _ es aris sawarmoo aqtivebi, romlebic sawarmoo

procesSi gamoiyeneba mravaljer an mudmivad erTi wlisa da meti xnis

ganmavlobaSi. am jgufis SemadgenlobaSi ar Sedis wvrili instrumenti da

inventari, samxedro aRWurvilobis zogierTi saxe (damangrevelisaSualebebi) da a.S. ZiriTadi kapitali iyofa materialurad da

aramaterialurad.

materialuri ZiriTadi kapitalia _ sacxovrisebi, Senoba-nagebobani,

manqanebi da mowyobilobebi, kultivirebadi aqtivebi.

sacxovriss miekuTvneba Senobebi, romlebic mTlianad an nawilobriv

gamoiyeneba sacxovreblad binebis saxiT, maT Sorisaa sacxovrisebTan

dakavSirebuli nagebobani, magaliTad, avtofarexi da yvela mowyobiloba,

romelic Cveulebriv gvxvdeba sacxovrebel SenobebSi, agreTve mcuravi

saxlebi, gadasatani saxlebi da saxli-furgonebi, romlebic gamoiyenebarogorc mosaxleobis ZiriTadi sacxovrisi, agreTve istoriuli Zeglebi,

romlebis identificirebulia rogorc sacxovrebeli Senobebi.

Senobebi da nagebobani _ es aris arasacxovrebeli Senobebi da nagebobani

(magaliTad, sawyobebi, samrewvelo da savaWro sawarmoebis Senobebi,

sastumroebi, restornebi, saswavlo Senobebi da saavadmyofoebi,

gzatkecilebi, xidebi, metropoliteni, kaSxlebi, kavSirgabrulobisa da

eleqtrogadamcemi xazebi, magistraluri milgayvanilobebi da sxv.).

manqanebi da mowyobilobebi _ esaa adamianebisa da tvirTis gadasazidi

satransporto saSualebebi, manqanebi da mowyobilobebi. erovnuli

simdidris es elementi ar moicavs Sinameurneobebis mier saboloomoxmarebisaTvis SeZenil manqanebs da mowyobilobebs (magaliTad,

avtomobili). isini aRiricxeba sacnobaro muxlSi _ `xangrZlivi moxmarebis

samomxmareblo saqoneli SinameurneobebSi”. magram Tu aseTi manqanebi da

mowyobilobani gamoiyeneba SinameurneobaSi sawarmoo procesis

gansaxorcieleblad, maSin isini unda miekuTvnos ZiriTad kapitals.

kultivirebadi aqtivebi _ soflis meurneobaSi ZiriTadi kapitalis erT-

erTi mTavari elementi, romelic moicavs produqtuli, sajiSe da muSa

pirutyvis, xexilis baRebis, venaxebis da sxva regularulad msxmoiare

mcenareebis plantaciebis Rirebulebas. kultivirebadi aqtivebi, Tu maT armiuRweviaT simwifis asakisaTvis (arasxmoiare) am kategoriaSi CaiTvleba

mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tu isini iwarmoeba sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis.

aramaterialuri ZiriTadi kapitali Sedgeba sasargeblo wiaRiseulis

saZiebo xarjebisagan, im obieqtebis Rirebulebebisgan, romlebic Seqmnilia

adamianis SromiT da warmodgenilia informaciis saxiT eleqtro-

gamoTvliTi manqanebis (kompiuterebis) programul uzrunvelyofaSi,



51

agreTve literaturis, xelovnebisa da gasarTobi Janris nawarmoebebis

originalebisagan. am jgufis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis agreTve kompiuteruli

bazis gafarToebisaTvis, SeZenisa da damuSavebisaTvis saWiro msxvili

danaxarjebi. igulisxmeba, rom es bazebi gamoiyeneba erT welze meti vadiT,

miuxedavad imisa, xdeba Tu ara maTi realizacia bazarze.

ZiriTadi kapitali, rogorc erovnuli simdidris ZiriTadi elementi,

tradiciulad aRiricxeba saxelmwifo statistikis mier. Tumca

saqarTveloSi gaangariSgebuli ZiriTadi kapitalis maCveneblebi

jerjerobiT srulad ar emTxveva erovnul angariSTa sistemaSi

gamoyenebuli ZiriTadi kapitalis kategorias.

magaliTad, statistikur praqtikaSi ZiriTad kapitals miekuTvneba mxolod

mTlianad dasrulebuli obieqtebi, maSin rodesac eas-is Sesabamisad

aqtivebi unda CaiTvalos ZiriTadi kapitalis SemadgenlobaSi im

momentidan, rodesac isini gadavidnen mflobelis sakuTrebaSi.

eas-is Sesabamisad, ZiriTadi kapitalis komponentebis SemadgenlobaSi

(romelic warmoebis xangrZlivi ciklis Sedegia), SeiZleba

gaviTvaliswinoT daumTavrebeli obieqtebis Rirebuleba, Tu: isini

mwarmoeblidan momxmareblis mflobelobaSi gadavidnen; maTi anazRaureba

etapobrivad moxda, an obieqts awarmoebs TviTon momxmarebeli (Senobebisa

da nagebobebis daumTavrebeli mSenebloba, gemebis, TviTmfrinavebis

daumTavrebeli mSenebloba, mozardeuli saqoneli, mravalwliani

nargavebis axalgazrda plantaciebi da a. S.).

2.4. ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefasebis saxeebi

ZiriTadi kapitalis mravalferovnebis gamo maTi saerTo moculobis

Sfaseba SesaZlebelia RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi. Sesyidvis droisa da

kapitalis mdgomareobis mixedviT SeiZleba gamoviyenoT Sefasebis 4 meTodi:

sruli Tavdapirveli, sruli aRdgeniTi, Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba cveTis

gamoklebiT da aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba cveTis gamoklebiT.

sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba faqtobrivad ZiriTadi kapitalis

Rirebulebaa misi amoqmedebis dros. masSi Sedis ZiriTadi kapitalisSeZenaze an damzadebaze gaweuli danaxarjebi, agreTve transportireba da

damontaJeba. naklovanebad SeiZleba CaiTvalos misdami sandoobis

SedarebiT dabali xarisxi drois sxvadasxva monakveTebSi fasebis

araerTgvarovnebis gamo.

Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba cveTis gamoklebiT, anu Tavdapirveli narCeni

Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba rogorc srul Tavdapirvel Rirebulebas minus



52

cveTis Rirebulebas damatebuli modernizaciisa da kapitaluri remontis

xarjebi.

sruli aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba axasiaTebs ZiriTadi kapitalis

kvlavwarmoebis Rirebulebas Tanamedrove pirobebSi, anu mis Seqmnasa da

SeZenaze gaweul danaxarjebs mimdinare fasebSi. misi gansazRvra

gadafasebis Sedegad xdeba. ZiriTadi kapitalis amoqmedebis momentSi

sruli Tavdapirveli da sruli aRdgeniTi Rirebulebebi erTmaneTis

tolia.

gansxvaveba Tavdapirvel da aRdgeniT Rirebulebebs Soris fasebis

cvlilebazea damokidebuli. amasTan, aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba SeiZleba iyos

rogorc meti, ise naklebi Tavdapirvel Rirebulebaze. es damokidebulia

masalebis, samSeneblo-samontaJo samuSaoebis, satransporto tarifebis da

a.S. fasebis cvlilebis mimarTulebaze.

aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba cveTis gamoklebiT, anu aRdgeniTi narCeni

Rirebuleba axasiaTebs kapitalis faqtiuri cveTis dones kvlavwarmoebisaxal pirobebSi. mis gasaangariSeblad sruli aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba

mravldeba cveTis koeficientze.

sabalanso Rirebuleba es aris ZiriTadi kapitalis is Rirebuleba,

romliTac xdeba maTi ayvana balansze. bolo gadafasebamde arsebuli

kapitali Sefasdeba aRdgeniTi RirebulebiT, xolo gadafasebis Semdgom

Semosuli axali kapitali _ sruli Tavdapirveli RirebulebiT.

ZiriTadi kapitalis SefasebasTan dakavSirebiT erovnul angariSTa

sistemaSi gansakuTrebuli Canawerebia gakeTebuli, raTa realurad moxdes

ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gaangariSeba, saxeldobr:ZiriTadi kapitalis Sesyidvebi SeiZleba wina periodebSi ganxorcielda,

rodesac fasebis done mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeboda mimdinare

periodisagan. amitom ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis Sefaseba imave fasebSi

unda moxdes, rogorc gamoSvebis an Sualeduri moxmarebisa warmoebis

angariSSi. Sesabamisad is fasebi unda gamoviyenoT, romlebic moqmedebs

maTi gamoyenebis periodSi da ara SeZenisas. “istoriuli fasebis”

gamoyeneba ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis Sefasebisas ar aris

mizanSewonili, radgan fasebi droSi icvleba.

2.5. ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTa

produqciis realizaciis Sedegad sawarmos ukan ubrundeba ZiriTadi

kapitalis Rirebulebis nawili, romlis akumulirebis Sedegad iqmneba

saamortizacio anaricxebis fondi, anu amortizaciis fondi.

amortizaciis fondSi Tanxebis akumulireba xdeba yovelwliurad

saamortizacio anaricxebis safuZvelze, rac Tavis mxriv Sedis produqciis



53

TviTRirebulebaSi. amortizaciis wliuri fondi gaiangariSeba Semdegi

saxiT:

sadac

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebulebaa;

_ narCeni(salikvidacio) Rirebulebaa;

_ kapitaluri remontis Rirebulebaa;

_ modernizaciis Rirebulebaa;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis samsaxuris normatiuli vadaa.

amortizaciis wliuri norma _ aris amortizaciis wliuri fondis fardoba

ZiriTadi kapitalis srul RirebulebasTan da ganisazRvreba formuliT:

rogorc wesi, amortizaciis normebis gansazRvra xdeba sabalanso

RirebulebasTan mimarTebiT (Tavdapirveli an aRdgeniTi) da isini

diferencirebulia ZiriTadi kapitalis saxeebis mixedviT.

2.6. ZiriTadi kapitalis balansi

ZiriTadi kapitalis balansebi gamoiyeneba ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis

Sesaswavlad. ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis bolos gaiangariSeba

Semdegi sabalanso sqemiT:

balansis monacemebis safuZvelze SesaZlebelia ZiriTadi kapitalis

saSualowliuri Rirebulebis gaangariSeba. SeiZleba ganvixiloT ramdenime

SemTxveva, mag:

1. rodesac cnobilia ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis

dasawyisSi da bolos, gaangariSeba warmoebs martivi saSualo

ariTmetikulis daxmarebiT:



54

2. rodesac cnobilia ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba Tanabrad

dacilebuli momentebisaTvis (mag. yoveli Tvis 1-eli ricxvisTvis),

saSualowliuri Rirebuleba SeiZleba gaviangariSoT saSualo

qronologiuriT:

=( ,

sadac ZiriTadi kapitalis sabalanso Rirebulebebia

TiToeuli Tvis 1-eli ricxvisTvis;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis sabalanso Rirebulebaa momdevno wlis 1

ianvrisTvis.

2.7 ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis, mdgomareobisa da vargisianobis

maCveneblebi

ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis maCveneblebia:

Semosvlis koeficienti gaiangariSeba Semosuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebulebis

fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis bolos.

ganaxlebis koeficienti gaiangariSeba Semosuli axali ZiriTadi kapitalis

Rirebulebis fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis

bolos. is gviCvenebs ganaxlebis dones.

gasvlis koeficienti gaiangariSeba moqmedebidan gasuli ZiriTadi kapitalisRirebulebis fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis

dasawyisSi. is gviCvenebs gasvlis intensivobas.



55

likvidaciis koeficienti gaiangariSeba siZvelisa da cveTis gamo moqmedebidan

gasuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebulebis fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis

RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis dasawyisSi.

likvidirebuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebulebis fardobiT Semosuli ZiriTadi

kapitalis RirebulebasTan angariSoben ZiriTadi kapitalis Secvlis intensivobas.

ZiriTadi kapitalis vargisianoba da mdgomareoba Seiswavleba Semdegi

maCveneblebiT:

cveTis koeficienti gaiangariSeba cveTis Tanxis fardobiTZiriTadi kapitalis

srul Tavdapirvel RirebulebasTan. is axasiaTebs ZiriTadi kapitalis xvedriT

wils, romelic axladSeqmnil produqciazea gadatanili.

vargisianobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba narCeni Rirebulebis fardobiT srul

Tavdapirvel RirebulebasTan. is axasiaTebsZiriTadi kapitalis im xvedriT wils,

romelic jer ar aris gadatanili axladSeqmnil produqciaze.

wlis bolosaTvis ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTis absoluturi Tanxis gansazRvraxdeba mocemuli TariRisaTvis srul Tavdapirvel da narCen Rirebulebebs Soris

sxvaobiT:

cveTis koeficientis gaangariSeba SesaZlebelia agreTve cveTis absoluturi

Tanxis fardobiTZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan periodis bolos:

cveTisa da vargisianobis koeficientebs Soris urTierTkavSiriSemdegi saxiT

gamoisaxeba:

manqana-mowyobilobebis asakis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba maTi saSualo asaki,

romelic Sewonili saSualo ariTmetikuliT gaiangariSeba, sadac ZiriTadi



56

kapitalis TiToeuli erTeulis asaki Sewonilia mis Sesabamisi asakis manqana-

mowyobilobebis raodenobasTan.

ZiriTadi kapitalis mdgomareobis, moZraobisa da vargisianobis

maCveneblebis gaangariSeba vaCvenoT mocemuli magaliTis daxmarebiT:

sademonstracio magaliTi 1.

firmis ZiriTadi kapitalis moculobisa da moZraobis Sesaxeb gvaqvs

Semdegi monacemebi (aTasi lari):

ZiriTadi kapitalis sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba

wlis dasawyisSi 210

wlis ganmavlobaSi:

Semovida 30

gavida cveTis gamoklebiT 4

gasuli kapitalis sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba 20cveTa wlis dasawyisisTvis(%) 20

amortizaciis wliuri norma(%) 10

gansazRvreT ZiriTadi kapitalis:

1) Rirebuleba wlis bolosaTvis;

2) balansi sruli Tavdapirveli RirebulebiT;

3) ganaxlebis koeficienti;

4) gasvlis koeficienti;

5) narCeni Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisisaTvis;

6) amortizaciis wliuri moculoba;

7) narCeni Rirebuleba wlis bolosaTvis;

8) balansi narCeni RirebulebiT;

9) cveTisa da vargisianobis koeficientebi wlis dasawyisisaTvis;

10) cveTisa da vargisianobis koeficientebi wlis bolosaTvis.

amoxsna:

1. imisaTvis, rom ganvsazRvroT ZiriTadi kapitalis sruli Tavdapirveli

Rirebuleba wlis bolosaTvis, ZiriTadi kapitalis srul Tavdapirvel

Rirebulebas wlis dasawyisisaTvis daemateba ZiriTadi kapitalis Semosvlawlis ganmavlobaSi da gamoakldeba gasvla:

210 + 30 - 20 = 220 aTasi lari

2. vadgenT ZiriTadi kapitalis balanss sruli Tavdapirveli RirebulebiT

(aTasi lari):

cxrili1.



57

Z i r i T a d i

k a p i t a l i w l i s

d a s a w y i s S i

Semovida saangariSo

periodSigavida saangariSo periodSi

ZiriTadi

kapitali

wlis

bolos

sul

maT Soris

axali

ZiriTadi

kapitali

sul

maT Soris

likvidirebu-lia

1 2 3 4 5 6=1+2-4

210 30 30 20 - 220

3. ganaxlebis koeficienti gaiangariSeba wlis ganmavlobaSi Semosuli

kapitalis fardobiT wlis bolosaTvis arsebuli kapitalisRirebulebasTan:

K %6.13100220

30ganaxl.

4. gasvlis koeficienti tolia wlis ganmavlobaSi gasuli kapitalis

fardobisa wlis dasawyisSi arsebuli kapitalis RirebulebasTan:

%5.9100210

20gasvl. K

ganvsazRvroT ZiriTadi kapitalis narCeni Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisisa dabolosaTvis, amisaTvis jer vangariSobT Semdeg maCveneblebs:

5. ZiriTadi kapitalis narCeni Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisisaTvis == Zir. kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisSi _ (Zir. kapitalis

Rirebuleba wlis dasawyisSi × cveTis procentze/100) =

=210 _ 168000100

20210

lari.

6. ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizaciis wliuri moculoba gaiangariSeba

ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualowliuri Rirebulebis

2220210

gadamravlebiT

wliuri amortizaciis koeficientze

100

10.

7. ZiriTadi kapitalis narCeni Rirebuleba wlis bolos iqneba:

168 +30_4_21.5=172.5



58

8. aRniSnuli monacemebis gaangariSebis Semdeg SevadginoT ZiriTadi

kapitalis balansi cveTis gamoklebiT (narCeni RirebulebiT), aTasi lari:

cxrili 2.

ZiriTadi

kapitali

wlis

dasawyisSi

Semovida

saangariSo

periodSi

gavida saangariSoperiodSi

amortizacia

(wliuri)

(210+220)/2*0.1

ZiriTadi

kapitali

wlis

bolossul

maT

Soris

axali

ZiriTadi

kapitali

sulmaT Soris

likvidirebulia

168 30 30 4 - 21.5 172.5

am monacemebis safuZvelze gaviangariSoT cveTisa da vargisianobis

koeficientebi:

9. wlis dasawyisisaTvis:

KK %20100210

2.0210.

cv K , %80100

210

2.0210210.

varg K an (100% _ 20%) =80%

10. wlis bolos:

%6.21100

220

5.172220

cv. K , %4.78100

220

5.172. varg K

Tu SevadarebT kapitalis mdgomareobas, SevamCnevT, rom wlis bolosaTvis

cveTa gaizarda (21.6% – 20%) =1.6%-iT.

2.8. ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebis maCveneblebi

statistikaSi ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebas swavloben Semdegi

maCveneblebis saSualebiT:

1. kapitalukugeba, romelic gviCvenebs warmoebuli produqciis moculobas

ZiriTadi kapitalis 1 larze:

sadac

_ warmoebuli produqciis Rirebulebaa;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualo Rirebulebaa.



59

2. kapitaltevadoba, romelic gviCvenebs ZiriTadi kapitalis moculobas

warmoebuli produqciis 1 larze da kapitalukugebis Sebrunebuli

maCvenebelia:

3. kapitalSeiaraReba, romelic gviCvenebs ZiriTadi kapitalis moculobas 1

momuSaveze:

sadac

_ samuSao Zalis saSualo raodenobaa;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualo Rirebulebaa.

am maCveneblebs Soris Semdegi urTierTkavSiria: Tu kapitalukugebas

gavamravlebT kapitalSeiaraRebaze, miviRebT Sromis nayofierebas:

2.9 ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamikis maCveneblebi

ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamika Seiswavleba indeqsebis saSualebiT.

ZiriTadad gamoiyeneba individualuri indeqsebi da maTi urTierTkavSiri.

ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamikis maCveneblebis gaangariSeba vaCvenoT

mocemuli magaliTis daxmarebiT:


sawarmos monacemebis mixedviT:

maCvenebeli

(aTasi lari)

sabaziso

periodi

saangariSo

periodi

ZiriTadi kapitalis

saSualowliuri moculoba22250 25900

gamoSvebuli produqcia

Sesadaris fasebSi46500 49210

gansazRvreT:

1. ZiriTadi kapitalis kapitalukugebis indeqsi ;

2. gamoSvebuli produqciis moculobis dinamikis indeqsi;

3. ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualowliuri moculobis ( dinamikis

indeqsi;

4. urTierTkavSiri wina sam maCvenebels Soris.



60

amoxsna:

1. ZiriTadi kapitalis kapitalukugebis indeqsi :

jer gaviangariSoT kapitalukugebis maCveneblebi saangariSo da

sabaziso periodebisaTvis:

saangariSoperiodSi:

90,125900

49210 lari

sabazisoperiodSi:

09,222250

46500 lari

saangariSo da sabaziso periodebis kapitalukugebis maCveneblebis

fardobiT miviRebT kapitalukugebis indeqss:

909,009,2

9,1

2. gamoSvebuli produqciis moculobis )(Q dinamikis indeqsi:

0

1

Q

QiQ 058,1

46500

49210

3. ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualowliuri moculobis( dinamikis

indeqsi:

164,122250

25900

4. urTierTkavSiri wina sam maCvenebels Soris Semdeg kanonzomierebas

emorCileba:

Tu mocemulia ori maTgani, SeiZleba davadginoT mesame. magaliTad,

Tu gamoSvebuli produqciis moculobis dinamikis indeqss gavyofT

ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualowliuri moculobis dinamikis indeqsze,

miviRebT kapitalukugebis indeqss:

1,058 : 1,164 = 0,909 anu 90,9%.

2.10. sabrunavi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

ZiriTadi kapitalisgan gansxvavebiT sabrunavi kapitali sawarmoo procesSi

erTjeradad monawileobs da mTeli Rirebuleba gadaaqvs Seqmnil

produqciaze. mis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis: materialuri sabrunavi

saSualebebis maragebi, sawarmoo maragebi, daumTavrebeli warmoeba, mza

produqcia, saqoneli gadasayidad.



61

materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebs miekuTvneba saqoneli,

romelic Seqmnilia mimdinare an wina periodSi da inaxeba gasayidad, an

maTi gamoiyeneba warmoebaSi mogvianebiTaa gaTvaliswinebuli. esenia _

masalebisa da nedleulis sawarmoo maragebi, daumTavrebeli warmoeba,

gadasayidi saqoneli, saxelmwifo materialuri rezervebi, e.i. strategiuli

masalebis maragebi, xorbali da sxva saqoneli, romlebsac gansakuTrebuli

mniSvneloba aqvT qveynisaTvis da inaxeba mTavrobis mier sagangebo

mdgomareobisaTvis.

sawarmoo maragebis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis nedleuli, masalebi, saTbobi,

instrumentebi, Tesli, sakvebi da sxva saqoneli, romlebsac maTi mflobeli

gamoiyenebs Sualeduri moxmarebisaTvis sakuTar sawarmoo procesSi, e.i.

saqoneli, romelic gadasayidad ar aris gankuTvnili. sawarmoo maragis,

nedleulisa da masalebisdamaxasiaTebeli Taviseburebaa monawileoba

warmoebis erTi ciklis ganmavlobaSi. rogorc wesi, maTi Rirebuleba

srulad gadadis maTgan an maTi monawileobiT warmoebuli saqonlisa damomsaxurebis RirebulebaSi.

daumTavrebeli warmoeba _ esaa saqoneli da momsaxureba, romelTa

warmoeba dawyebulia, magram mTlianad ar aris damTavrebuli da

gagrZeldeba imave mwarmoeblis mier momaval periodSi. gamoiricxeba

nawilobriv damTavrebuli saqoneli da momsaxureba, romelTa mimarT

vrceldeba saboloo mflobelis sakuTrebis ufleba, e. i. an warmoeba

xorcieldeba sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis an aRniSnuli dasturdeba yidva-

gayidvis xelSekrulebiT.

mza produqcia _ esaa saqoneli, romelic mzadaa gasayidad, an sxvasameurneo erTeulebisaTvis gasagzavnad.

unda aRvniSnoT, rom saqoneli, romelsac erTnairi naturalur-nivTobrivi

forma aqvs, SeiZleba mivakuTnoT erovnuli simdidris sxvadasxva elements

imisda mixedviT, Tu rogor gamoiyeneba mocemul momentSi.

magaliTad, Carxi, romelic gamoiyeneba sawarmoo procesSi, anda romelic unda

damontaJdes sawarmoSi, Sedis ZiriTadi kapitalis SemadgenlobaSi, xolo aseTive Carxi,

romelic imyofeba sawarmo-damamzadeblis mza produqciis sawyobSi, miekuTvneba

materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragis kategorias.

saqoneli gadasayidad warmoadgens savaWro organizaciebSi arsebuli da

gasayidad gankuTvnili saqonlis Rirebulebas.

2.11 sabrunavi kapitaliT uzrunvelyofisa da gamoyenebis maCveneblebi



62

sabrunavi kapitaliT sawarmoo procesis uzrunvelyofisa da efeqturi

gamoyenebis mizniT statistikaSi gamoiyeneba Semdegi maCveneblebi:

1. maragebiT uzrunvelyofis maCvenebeli dReebSi, romelic tolia faqtiuri

maragebis fardobisa maragebis saSualodRiur moculobasTan:

2. brunvadobis koeficienti, romelic axasiaTebs sabrunavi kapitalis

saSualo naSTis brunvaTa ricxvs da gaiangariSeba warmoebuli

(realizebuli) produqciis moculobis fardobiT sabrunavi kapitalis

saSualo naSTTan:

3. datvirTvis koeficienti, romelic gviCvenebs 1 laris realizebuli

produqciis warmoebisaTvis saWiro sabrunavi kapitalis Rirebulebas da is

brunvadobis koeficientis Sebrunebuli sididea:

4. brunvadoba dReebSi, anu erTi brunvis saSualo xangrZlivoba, romelicgviCvenebs dros kalendarul dReebSi, romelic saWiroa sabrunavi

kapitalis erTjeradad amobrunebisTvis. amisaTvis kalendarul dReTa

ricxvi iyofa brunvadobis koeficientze:

an

5. saangariSo periodSi gamoTavisuflebuli sabrunavi kapitalis moculoba

brunvadobis cvlilebis xarjzesabazisosTan SedarebiT:

an



63

sabrunavi kapitalis statistikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSeba vaCvenoT

mocemuli magaliTis daxmarebiT:


sawarmos sabrunavi saxsrebis (kapitalis) Sesaxeb gvaqvs Semdegi monacemebi,aTasi lari:

TariRi 2008w. 2009w.

1 ianvari 336 384

1 aprili 391 451

1 ivlisi 350 363

1 oqtomberi 400 418

31 dekemberi 368 390

realizebuli produqciis Rirebulebam 2008 wels Seadgina 3051 aTasi lari,

xolo 2009 wels _ 3724 aTasi lari.

gansazRvreT:

a) brunvadobis koeficienti, brunvadoba dReebSi da sabrunavi saxsrebis

datvirTvis koeficientebi TiToeuli wlisaTvis;

b) sabrunavi saxsrebis cvlileba realizebuli produqciisa da

brunvadobis xarjze.

amoxsna:

brunvadobis koeficienti gaiangariSeba formuliT:

sadac,

Q - raime periodSi gamoSvebuli an realizebuliproduqciis Rirebulebaa

sabazro fasebSi;

- sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTia imave periodSi.



64

sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTi TiToeuli wlisaTvis gaviangariSoT

saSualo qronologiuris saSualebiT.

sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTi 2008 wlisTvis toli iqneba:

25,3734

1493

4

2368400350391

2336

aTasi lari

sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTi 2009 wlisTvis toli iqneba:

75,4044

1619

4

2

390418363451

2

384

aTasi lari

brunvadobis koeficienti 2008 wlisTvis toli iqneba:

174,825,373

30512008 K brunva

brunvadobis koeficienti 2009 wlisTvis toli iqneba:

201,975,404

37242009 K brunva

brunvadoba dReebSi ganisazRvreba mocemuli periodis kalendaruli

dReebis ricxvis SefardebiT brunvadobis koeficientze:

Sesabamisad, 2008 da 2009 wlebSi brunvadoba dReebSi tolia:

654,44174,8

3652008 t dRe

670,39

201,9

3652009 t dRe

sabrunavi saxsrebis datvirTvis koeficienti gaiangariSeba realizebuli

produqciis erT larze sabrunavi saxsrebis moculobiT da is brunvadobis

koeficientis Sebrunebuli maCvenebelia.



65

Sesabamisad, 2008 da 2009 wlebisTvis sabrunavi saxsrebis datvirTvis

koeficientebi tolia:

1223,03051

25,3732008 K

1087,03724

75,4042009 K

b) sabrunavi saxsrebis cvlilebam realizebuli produqciis xarjze

Seadgina:

3,821223,0)30513724()(200820082009

K QQQ aTasi lari

sabrunavi saxsrebis cvlilebam brunvadobis xarjze Seadgina:

7,503724)1223,01087,0()( 200920082009 Q K K K aTasi lari

realizebuli produqciis moculobis gadidebam 2009 wels gamoiwvia

sabrunavi saxsrebis saSualo naSTis zrda 82,3 aTasi lariT, xolo

brunvadobis zrdam _ naSTis Semcireba 50,7 aTasi lariT.

Tema 3. makroekonomikuri statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

saleqcio sakiTxebi:



66

- mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) da misi gaangariSebis meTodebi.

wminda Sida produqti

- mSp-is gaangariSebis meTodebi

- mSp-is gadaangariSeba mudmiv fasebSi

- erovnuli Semosavali

- ekonomikis mTliani saoperacio mogeba da Sereuli Semosavlebi

- gankargvadi Semosavali

- erovnuli danazogi

- wminda dakrediteba da wminda sesxeba

3.1. mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) da misi gaangariSebis meTodebi

mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) erovnul angariSianobaSi2 yvelaze xSirad

gamoyenebuli indikatoria. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom is erovnul angariSTasistemis RerZia, qveynis ekonomikis funqcionirebis Sedegebis mTavari

makroekonomikuri maCvenebelia.

amasTan, misi ganmarteba saerTaSorisod SeTanxmebuli da aRiarebulia3.

mSp-is raodenobriv monacemSi ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis gareSe

gaerTianebulia mocemuli qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze4 yvela firmis,

ara-momgebiani instituciis, marTvis organoebisa da Sinameurneobebis mier

warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gamoSveba mocemul periodSi.

qveynebis umravlesobaSi misi gaangariSeba wliuri da kvartaluri

sixSiriT xdeba, Tumca SesaZlebelia yovelTviuri Sefasebebic.mSp-is gaangariSeba martivi ar aris. TvalsaCinoebisTvis ganvixiloT

regionSi makaronis warmoebis magaliTi. dauSvaT wlis ganmavlobSi

regionSi makaronis mwarmoebeli erTi firma saqmianobs. maSin, regionis mSp

SeiZleba ganvsazRvroT rogorc wlis ganmavlobaSi gamoSvebuli makaronis

raodenoba tonebSi, an misi Rirebuleba dolarebSi. axla, vnaxoT, Tu

ratom ar aris sakmarisi makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis gasaangariSeblad

mxolod RirebulebiT sazom erTeulebSi gamosaxuli calkeuli firmebis

2 erovnuli angariSianoba, anu erovnul angariSTa sistemis (eas) warmoeba warmoadgens

logikurad Tanamimdevrul, integrirebul makroekonomikur angariSTa, balansebisa dacxrilebis sistemas, romelic efuZneba saerTaSoriso doneze SeTanxmebul cnebebs,ganmartebebs, klasifikaciebs da aRricxvis wesebs. 3 igulisxmeba 5 saerTaSoriso organizaciis (gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia(gaero),saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi(ssf), ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebisorganizacia(eTgo), msoflio banki(mb) da evropis komisia) mier gamocemulisaxelmZRvaneloebi: “erovnul angariSTa sistema 1993”, “evropul angariSTa sistema 1995” da“erovnul angariSTa sistema 2008”(axali versia). 4 mocemuli qveynis administraciulad marTvadi teritoria, romelzec adamianebi, saqonelida fuli Tavisuflad gadaadgildebian.



67

gamoSvebis Sejameba. pasuxi erTia: imitom, rom gaangariSeba didad aris

damokidebuli firmebis organizaciul struqturaze.

isev mivubrundeT makaronis warmoebis magaliTs mocemul regionSi, oRond

am SemTxvevaSi ganvixiloT warmoebis or scenari. dauSvaT, rom pirvel

wels regionSi mxolod erTi firmaa , romelic makaronsac awarmoebs da

fqvilsac makaronis warmoebisaTvis. misi gamoSveba 100 000 dolaria, rac

Seesabameba mis mier warmoebul 100 tona makarons (1 t=1 000 dol.). axla

dauSvaT, rom momaval wels firma orad gaiyo, romelTagan 1 awarmoebs

da yidis 30 000 dolaris Rirebulebis fqvils, xolo 2 mxolod makarons.

firma 2 isev imden makarons awarmoebs, ramdensac wina wels, anu 100 tonas

da 1 t isev 1 000 dolari Rirs.

cxrili 1. makaronis warmoeba regionSi gamartivebuli sqemiT

weli 1

firmagamoSveba $ 100 000

weli 2

firma 1 firma 2gamoSveba $ 30 000 $ 100 000

Tu pirvel wels regionis gamoSveba 100 000 dolari iyo, meore wels

mTliani gamoSveba orive firmis gamoSvebis jamis toli unda iyos, anu

1+ 2 (30 000 dol + 100 000 dol). Tumca es aSkarad absurdia! es cifri (130

000 dol.) gamoSvebis 30%-ian matebas gviCvenebs (130 000/100 000=1.30, an +30%)

maSin, rodesac makroekonomikur doneze faqtobrivad araviTari cvlileba

ar momxdara. meore wlis ganmavlobaSi regionSi makaronis imave

raodenobis warmoeba moxda igive fasad. maS ra moxda? cvlilebebi

ganicada mxolod firmebis organizaciul-samarTlebrivma da komerciulma

mowyobam.

swored am gansxvavebam warmoSva idea imis Taobaze, rom TiToeuli firmis

wvlili ara mTliani gamoSvebis, aramed damatebuli Rirebulebis mixedviT

unda Sefasebuliyo. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, damatebuli Rirebuleba

danamatia firmis danaxarjebis nakadebze, anu sawarmoo moxmarebaze. kvlav

mivubrundeT makaronis magaliTs. pirvel welTan SedarebiT, rodesacmxolod erTi firma awarmoebda makarons, meore wels 2 firmis mier

warmoebuli damatebuli Rirebuleba 100 000$-is toli ar aris. firma 2 30

000$-is toli Rirebulebis fqvils yidulobs 1-isgan, romelic pirvel

wels TviTon awarmoebda fqvilsac da amas gamoSvebaSi ar iTvaliswinebda.

amitom, 2 firmis damatebul Rirebulebas erovnul angariSTa sistema

angariSobs rogorc sxvaobas: 100 000$ – 30 000$. anu 2 firmis gamoSvebis



68

Rirebulebas akldeba im saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba, rac mis

warmoebaze daxarja mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi.

saqoneli da momsaxureba, romelic mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi

daixarja warmoebis procesSi, aris Sualeduri moxmareba. gamoSvebidan

Sualeduri moxmarebis gamoricxviT Cven Tavidan vicilebT ganmeorebiT

(dublirebul) aRricxvas. aRniSnuli qmedeba iqiTkenaa mimarTulia, rom

makroekonomikuri indikatori ar iyos damokidebuli firmis organizaciul

struqturaze. TvalsaCinoebisTvis ixileT cxrili, romelSic CarTulia

fermac, romelic xorbals awarmoebs SemdgomSi am xorblidan fqvilis

sawarmoeblad. simartivisTvis dauSvaT, rom fermers ar aqvs Sualeduri

moxmareba: is iyenebs sakuTar samuSao Zalas da manqana-mowyobilobebs,

saTesle masalisa da sasuqis yidvis gareSe.

cxrili 2. makaronis warmoeba regionSi gafarToebuli sqemiT

weli 1

fermeri firma A

moxmareba samuSaoZala+manqana-

mowyobilobebi

samuSao Zala+manqana-mowyobilobebi+xorbali

gamoSveba xorbali makaronigamoSveba $10 000 $ 100 000

Sualedurimoxmareba

0 $10 000

damatebuliRirebuleba

$10 000 $90 000

weli 2

fermeri firma A1 firma A2

moxmareba samuSaoZala+manqana-

mowyobilobebi

samuSao Zala+manqana-mowyobilobebi+xorbali

samuSao Zala+manqana-mowyobilobebi+fqvili

gamoSveba xorbali fqvili makaroni

gamoSveba $10 000 $ 30 000 $100 000Sualedurimoxmareba

0 $10 000 $30 000

damatebuliRirebuleba

$10 000 $20 000 $70 000

rogorc diagramidan Cans, TiToeuli mwarmoebeli erTeulis gamoSvebaicvleba, Tumca damatebuli Rirebulebis jami TiToeuli erTeulisTvis 100

000 dolaris toli rCeba organizaciuli mowyobisgan damoukideblad.

ai, amitom aris mSp TiToeuli firmis, samTavrobo instituciebisa da

mwarmoebeli Sinameurneobebis damatebuli Rirebulebebis jami mocemul

qveyanaSi: mSp = ∑ damatebuli Rirebulebebi. radgan TiToeuli damatebuli



69

Rirebuleba gamoSvebisa da Sualeduri moxmarebis sxvaobis tolia, mSp

sabolood SeiZleba ase CavweroT: mSp = ∑ gamoSvebebi - ∑ Sualeduri

moxmarebebi.

mSp-is Sedgenili formula (romelic cnobilia, rogorc “agregatuli

”),

qmnis gamoSvebis makroekonomikur indikators, romelic organizaciulistruqturisagan damoukidebelia da ar Seicavs ganmeorebiT aRricxvas. es

formula SeiZleba magaliTad moviyvanoT im sami arsebiTi wesis

TvalsaCinoebisaTvis, rasac mimarTaven xolme erovnul angariSTa sistemis

agebisas, rodesac mikroekonomikidan makroekonomikur gaangariSebebs

awarmoeben:

ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis gamoricxva

ekonomikurad mniSvnelovani agregatebis SemuSaveba (e.i. romelTa

Rirebuleba ar aris damokidebuli araekonomikur faqtorebze), da

iseTi indikatorebis Seqmna, romelTa gazomva praqtikulad

SesaZlebelia.

ras niSnavs mTliani Sida produqti, anu mSp? es aris produqti, ris

gazomvasac vcdilobT, anu warmoebis Sedegi _ yvela saqoneli da

momsaxureba, romelic gamoiyeneba saboloo moxmarebisaTvis, dagrovebisa

da eqsportisaTvis; ar Sedis Sualeduri saqoneli da momsaxureba,

romelic daxarjulia warmoebis procesSi nedleulis, masalis, sawvavis,

energiis da a.S. saxiT.

Sida niSnavs, rom produqti warmoebulia qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze,sityva mTliani niSnavs, rom mSp-is gaangariSebisas misi Rirebulebidan ar

gamoiricxeba ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba. principSi, warmoebis Sedegebis

zusti gazomvisaTvis (ra mizniTac gaiangariSeba sakuTriv mSp) unda

gamoiricxos ara mxolod Sualeduri moxmareba, aramed ZiriTadi kapitalis

moxmarebac, romelic ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT, Sualeduri saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis xarjvis analogiuria. Tumca praqtikaSi ZiriTadi kapitalis

moxmarebis gaangariSeba im meTodiT, rogorc es gaTvaliswinebulia eas-Si

(anu ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefaseba aRdgeniTi Rirebulebis mixedviT),

sakmaod Znelia, vinaidan ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebaze sabuRaltro

aRricxvis

monacemebi ar Seesatyviseba eas-is ganmartebebs: rogorc wesi, ZiriTadi

kapitalis amortizaciis gaangariSeba sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi xdeba

sawyisi da ara aRdgeniTi RirebulebiT, rogorc amas moiTxovs eas. garda

amisa, amortizaciis gaangariSeba sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi SeiZleba

daCqarebuli amortizaciis safuZvelze, rac miuRebelia eas-Si.



70

amgvarad, ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebaze eas-is moTxovnebis Sesabamisi

monacemebis miRebis SemTxvevaSi (ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizaciis

gaangariSeba aRdgeniTi Rirebulebis bazaze) SesaZlebeli iqneboda

ekonomikuri warmoebis Sedegebis ufro zusti maCveneblis _ wminda Sida

produqtis gaangariSeba. es gaTvaliswinebulia eas-is sqemiT, Tumca

praqtikaSi statistikosebi iZulebulni arian gamoiyenon mSp.

dabolos, unda aRiniSnos, rom mSp _ im sawarmoebis, dawesebulebebisa da

organizaciebis sawarmoo saqmianobaa, romlebic mocemuli qveynis

rezidentebi5 arian, Tumca am sawarmoebis, dawesebulebebisa da

organizaciebis yvela muSaki ar aris mocemuli qveynis rezidenti.

saqarTvelos eas-is praqtikaSi ekonomikuri operaciebi aRiricxeba maTi

ganxorcielebis momentisaTvis arsebul mimdinare sabazro fasebSi

daricxvis meTodiT. produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) gamoSvebis

Sefaseba xdeba sabaziso fasebSi, Sualeduri moxmarebis ki _ myidvelis

fasebSi. sabaziso fasi

aris Tanxa, romelsac mwarmoebeli iRebswarmoebuli produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) sanacvlod

(sakompensaciod), misi warmoebis an gayidvis gamo yvela saxis gadasaxadis

gamoklebiT da subsidiis damatebiT. myidvelis fasi aris Tanxa, romelsac

ixdis myidveli mocemul drosa da adgilze produqciis (saqonlis da

momsaxurebis) miwodebis sanacvlod. amisaTvis, sabaziso fass emateba

mTliani danaricxebi, romelic moicavs: savaWro-satransporto fasnamatebs

da gadasaxadebs produqciaze (dRg, aqcizi da sabaJo gadasaxadebs)

subsidiebis gareSe.

3.2. mSp-is gaangariSebis meTodebi

rogorc ukve CvenTvis cnobilia, mSp aris wlis manZilze mocemuli qveynis

ekonomikur teritoriaze warmoebuli yvela saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

Rirebuleba Sualeduri moxmarebis gamoklebiT.

sawarmos, dargis, seqtoris doneze mSp-s Seesabameba maCvenebeli mTliani

damatebuli Rirebuleba.

mSp-Si Sedis agreTve ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba (Cvens praqtikaSiamortizacia). miuxedavad imisa, rom wminda maCveneblebis gamoTvla

Zalian mniSvnelovania, ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gazomva aRdgeniTi

Rirebulebis bazaze dReisaTvis gaZnelebulia, amitom prioriteti eniWeba

mTliani maCveneblebis gamoTvlas.

5 instituciebi da fizikuri pirebi, romlebic cxovroben, an saqmianoben mocemulekonomikur teritorize xangrZlivad, 1 welze meti xnis ganmavlobaSi.



71

sagareo vaWrobis gaTvaliswinebiT, mSp SeiZleba gaviangariSoT

kvlavwarmoebis ciklis yovel stadiaze Sesabamisi meTodebis daxmarebiT:

sawarmoo

ganawilebi ს (Semosavlebis)

saboloo moxmarebis (danaxarjebis)

sawarmoo meTodiT mSp-is gaangariSeba SesaZlebelia sxvadasxva xerxiT:

1. mSp sabazro fasebSi = Sida ekonomikaSi warmoebuli saqonlisa

da momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSveba sabaziso fasebSi _ Sualeduri

moxmarebis saerTo Rirebuleba + damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi +

wminda gadasaxadebi importze.

cxrili 3. mSp-is gaangariSeba sawarmoo meTodiT, saqarTvelo6

mSp-is gaangariSebasawarmoo meTodiT

2011

mTliani gamoSveba

sabaziso fasebSi

36 430.7

Sualeduri

moxmareba

15 455.3

damatebuli

Rirebuleba

sabaziso fasebSi

29 975.4

(+) gadasaxadebi

produqciaze

3 492.7

(-) subsidiebi

produqciaze

124.1

mTliani Sida

produqti sabazro

fasebSi

24 344.0

2. mSp sabazro fasebSi = dargebis damatebuli Rirebulebis

(sabazro fasebSi) jams, e.i igi moicavs wminda gadasaxadebs produqtebsa da

importze (dRg-s gareSe). amasTan, mdR dargSi gaiangariSeba rogorc

sxvaoba mTlian gamoSvebasa (sabazro fasebSi) da Sualedur moxmarebas

Soris.cxrili 4. mSp-is gaangariSeba sawarmoo meTodiT (saqmianobis saxeebis

damatebuli Rirebulebebis Sejamebis gziT)7

6 saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli: 2012 / saqarTvelos statistikiserovnuli samsaxuri. – Tbilisi, 2013, gv.1097 saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli: 2012 / saqarTvelos statistikis erovnulisamsaxuri. – Tbilisi, 2013, gv. 115



72

damatebuli Rirebuleba saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT 2011

soflis meurneoba, nadiroba da satyeo meurneoba;

TevzWera, meTevzeoba

1,854.9

samTomopovebiTi mrewveloba

208.8

damamuSavebeli mrewveloba

2,085.6

eleqtroenergiis, airisa da wylis warmoeba da

ganawileba

634.8

produqciis gadamuSaveba Sinameurneobebis mier

655.8

mSenebloba

1,407.9

vaWroba; avtomobilebis, sayofacxovrebo nawarmisa da

piradi moxmarebis sagnebis remonti

3,552.7

sastumroebi da restornebi

466.3

transporti

1,573.4

kavSirgabmuloba

638.6

safinanso saqmianoba

536.1

operaciebi uZravi qonebiT, ijara da momxmareblisaTvis

momsaxurebis gaweva

1,138.7

sakuTari sacxovrisis gamoyenebis pirobiTi renta

665.9

saxelmwifo mmarTveloba

2,443.0

ganaTleba

1,050.0

janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri daxmareba

1,275.5

sxva komunaluri, socialuri da personaluri

momsaxurebis gaweva

1,021.7

Sinamosamsaxuris saqmianoba da Sinameurneobebis

saqmianoba, dakavSirebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

warmoebasTan sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis

25.2

finansuri Suamavlobis momsaxurebis arapirdapiri

Sefaseba

-259.5

mSp sabaziso fasebSi 20,975.4

(+) gadasaxadebi produqciaze

3,492.7

(-) subsidiebi produqciaze

124.1

mSp sabazro fasebSi 24,344.0

3. mSp sabazro fasebSi = ekonomikis seqtorebSi8 mdR-is jami

(sabazro fasebSi). saqarTveloSi am meTodiT mSp ar iangariSeba, radgan ar

gvaqvs monacemebi ekonomikis yvela seqtoris mixedviT.

ganawilebis meTodi gamoiyeneba ganawilebis stadiaze. es aris pirveladi

Semosavlebis jami, romelic rezidenti ekonomikuri erTeulebis mier

nawildeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mwarmoebelTa Soris: daqiravebul

8 eas-Si ekonomika dayofilia 6 seqtorad: arafinansuri, finansuri, samTavrobo,Sinameurneobebis, Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arakomerciuli organizaciebi(Smako) da“danarCeni msoflio”.



73

momuSaveTa Sromis anazRaurebas + wminda gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da

importze + mTliani mogeba + mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi.

cxrili 5. mSp-is gaangariSeba ganawilebiTi meTodiT, saqarTvelo, 20119

mSp-is gaangariSeba ganawilebiTi meTodiT

2011

resursebi

mTliani Sida produqti 24,344.0

(-) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba

2,660.8

(=) Sida produqti, wminda

21,683.2

gamoyeneba Sromis anazRaureba 7,755.2

xelfasebi

6,204.2

socialuri anaricxebi

1,551.0

gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze 3,751.5

gadasaxadebi produqciaze

3,492.7

damatebuli Rirebulebisa da aqcizis gadasaxadebi

3,399.5

gadasaxadi importze dRg-sa da aqcizis garda

93.2

sxva gadasaxadebi warmoebaze

258.8

(-) subsidiebi produqciaze 124.1

mTliani saoperacio mogeba 8,402.0

mTliani Sereuli Semosavali 4,559.4

saoperacio mogeba, wminda 5,979.1

(-) daricxuli cveTa Sinameurneobebis seqtorSi

237.9

Sereuli Semosavali, wminda 4,321.5

saboloo moxmarebis meTodiT mSp gaiangariSeba rogorc saboloo

moxmarebisa da mTliani dazogvis jami eqsport-importis saldos

gaTvaliswinebiT.

cxrili 5. mSp-is gaangariSeba saboloo moxmarebis meTodiT, saqarTvelo,

201110

mSp-is gaangariSeba saboloo moxmarebis meTodiT

2011

mTliani Sida produqti sabazro fasebSi 24,344.0

mTliani Sida produqtis gamoyeneba

9 http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=118&lang=geo 10 http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=118&lang=geo

http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=118&lang=geo










74

xarjebi saboloo moxmarebaze 22,448.4

Sinameurneobebi

17,882.2

Smako (Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arakomerciuli

organizaciebi)

135.6

saxelmwifo marTvis organoebi

4,430.5

individualuri saqoneli da momsaxureba

1,055.1

koleqtiuri momsaxureba

3,375.4

(+) mTliani kapitalis formireba 6,368.0

ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani formireba

5,474.3

maragebis cvlileba

893.7

faseulobis SeZena, wminda

..

(+) saqonlisa da momsaxurebis eqsporti 8,822.9

saqonlis eqsporti

5,475.9

momsaxurebis eqsporti

3,346.9

(-) saqonlisa da momsaxurebis importi 13,334.2

saqonlis importi

11,217.2

momsaxurebis importi

2,116.9

(+) statistikuri gansxvaveba 39.0

(=) mTliani Sida produqti sabazro fasebSi 24,344.0

gamoyenebis stadiaze gamoTvlili mSp tolia saboloo moxmarebisTvis

SeZenili saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebisa moxmarebis fasebSi. eas-

is angariSebSi mSp-is saboloo moxmareba iyofa Semdeg muxlebad: piradi

da saxelmwifo moxmareba, mTliani dagroveba (sabrunavi saSualebebismaragebis mateba, kapitaldabandebebi) da eqsport-importis saldo.

3.3. mSp-is gadaangariSeba mudmiv fasebSi

ekonomistebi da Jurnalistebi mSp-is analizis dros xSirad iyeneben

termins: ” mSp-is mateba”, nacvlad terminisa “mSp-is realuri mateba”.

magaliTad, ukve tipurad iqca winadadeba: “mSp-is matebam 2% Seadgina”,nacvlad “mSp-is realurma matebam 2% Seadgina”. amgvar uzustobas xSirad

mivyavarT iseT ucnaur terminologiamde, rogoricaa magaliTad,

“uaryofiTi mateba”, rac TavisTavad ukavSirdeba mSp-is moculobis

Semcirebas. aRsaniSnavia, rom erovnul angariSTa sistemaSi upiratesobas

aniWeben termins “mSp-is moculobas” nacvlad “realuri mSp”-isa, radgan

miiCneven, rom inflacia iseTive “realuria”, rogorc zrda.



75

makroekonomikis ani da bani swored imaSi mdgomareobs, rom gavarkvioT,

mimdinare fasebSi gamosaxuli makroekonomikuri agregatebis cvlilebaSi

ra wilebi modis raodenobasa da fasebis cvlilebaze. dauSvaT, makaronis

warmoeba pirvel wels 100 000 dolaria, xolo meore wels _ 110 000.

CvenTvis mniSvnelovania gavarkvioT, ram gamoiwvia es cvlileba, radgan Tu

raodenobrivi mateba dadebiTi momentia, fasebis cvlilebas uaryofiTi

movlenebi axlavs Tan. erovnul angariSianobaSi am ori faqtoris

zegavlenis gasamijnad da Sesafaseblad or komponents iyeneben: a)

raodenobrivi cvlilebis komponenti (“reluri mSp”, an “mSp-is moculoba”)

da b) fasebis cvlilebis indikatori, an “mSp-is deflatori”).

gavixsenoT adre motanili magaliTidan, rom 100 000 dolaris Rirebulebis

makaroni 100 tona makaronis (raodenoba) namravlia 1 000 dolarze (1 tonis

fasi). swored aseve, mSp-is zrdis tempis indeqsi mimdinare fasebSi mSp-is

moculobis zrdis indeqsis namravlia mSp-is deflatoris zrdis indeqsze.

01

11

00

01

00

11

pq

pq

pq

pq

pq

pq (2.1)

aqedan gamomdinare, erT SemTxvevaSi Cven vaxdenT mimdinare fasebSi

gamosaxuli mSp-is “deflatirebas” (e.i. gayofas) fasis indikatoriT (mSp-is

deflatori) mSp-is raodenobrivi indikatoris (mSp-is moculoba) misaRebad.

SebrunebiT, mSp-is mimdinare Rirebulebis misaRebad xdeba mSp-is

moculobis “inflatireba” fasis faqtoriT.

00

11

pq

pq

01

11

pq

pq

00

01

pq

pq deflireba (2.2)

01

11

00

01

pq

pq

pq

pq=

00

11

pq

pq inflireba (2.3)

aRsaniSnavia, rom es toloba gamoiyeneba mSp-is absoluturi maCveneblebis

mimarTac. magaliTad, raime sabaziso wlis mSp-is moculoba mln

dolarebSi(larebSi) tolia mimdinare wlis fasebSi gamosaxuli mSp-is

donis ganayofisa deflatorze, anu fasebis indeqsze. rodesac es operacia

Sesruldeba, mSp-is moculobis sabaziso weli fasebis indeqsis sabaziso

wels eTanadeba.



76

01 pq = 11 pq :

01

11

pq

pq (2.4)

makroekonomikur cxrilebSi Zalian cota adgili eTmoba mimdinare fasebSi

asaxul mSp-s. aq ZiriTadi aqcentebi keTdeba realur mSp-sa da

deflatorze. Tumca mimdinare fasebSi asaxuli mSp mravali mniSvnelovani

agregatisaTvis Sesadar bazad (mniSvnelad) gamoiyeneba, magaliTad,

biujetis deficitTan, eqsport-importis saldosTan, erovnul dazogvasTan

da a.S. koeficientebi, romlebic miiReba mimdinare fasebSi gamosaxuli

mricxvelisa da mniSvnelis gayofis Sedegad, saerTaSoriso

SedarebebisTvis gamoiyeneba, radgan sxva SemTxvevaSi isini damokidebuli

iqneba qveynis sidideze.

ganvixiloT germaniis magaliTze damokidebuleba Semdeg agregatebs Soris:

mSp mimdinare fasebSi, mSp-is moculoba da mSp-is deflatori. aq ori

agregati absolutur sidideebSia gamosaxuli, kerZod, mlrd evroebSi.naxazi 1. germaniis mSp-is moculoba da Rirebuleba 2004 wels11

__ mSp mimdinare fasebSi __ mSp 2000 wlis

fasebSi

rogorc grafikidan Cans, 2004 wels germaniis mSp mimdinare fasebSidaaxloebiT 2 200 mlrd evro iyo, xolo ucvlel fasebSi _ daaxloebiT 2

100 mlrd evro. deflatori (inflacia) mlrd evroebSi ar aisaxeba da

amitom ar aris datanili naxazze, Tumca is SeiZleba warmovidginoT

rogorc xazebs Soris dacileba mimdinare fasebSi Sefasebul mSp-sa da

11 OECD (2006), National Accounts of OECD Countries: Volume I, Main Aggregates, 1993-2004, 2006 Edition, OECD, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/142154615437



77

realur mSp-s Soris. 2000 wlis Semdeg diagramis wrfeebs Soris dacileba

inflaciis maniSnebelia. aRsaniSnavia, rom naxazze 1. orive wrfe erTmaneTs

exeba 2000 wels. es imis gamo moxda, rom mSp-is moculoba 2000 wlis

sabaziso fasebSia gadayvanili. aRsaniSnavia, rom sabaziso weli SeiZleba

icvlebodes, radgan ekonomistebi xSirad mimarTaven agregatebis

ganaxlebas, Tumca amas ganmsazRvreli mniSvneloba ara aqvs, rodesac

zrdis tempebis Sedareba xdeba.

cxrilidan Cans, rom 2000-03 wlebSi Zalian mcire variacia SeiniSneba

germaniis deflatorSi, radgan inflacia dabali iyo, TiTqmis 2%-is qvemoT.

SedarebisTvis mocemulia agreTve samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis(sfi)

variaciac. es indeqsic agreTve inflaciis maxasiaTebelia da ufro

cnobilia, umeteswilad imis gamo, rom yovelTviurad iangariSeba da

mosaxleobis interesis sferoSi xvdeba, radgan moxmarebas ukavSirdeba.

erTi mxriv, deflatori mocvis xarisxiT ufro srulia, radgan is

warmoebis saSualebebsac moicavs, Tumca meore mxriv naklebad srulia,radgan mxolod Sida inflacias moicavs da importis fasebis cvlileba

pirdapir ar gaiTvaliswineba. aRsaniSnavia is faqtic, rom qveynebis mcire

gamonaklisis garda, romlebic erovnul angariSebs yovelTviurad

angariSoben, ZiriTadad mSp-is deflatori mxolod kvartalurad

gaiangariSeba.

cxrili 6. germaniis mSp-is deflatori da samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

mSp-is deflatori 103.07 104.43 106.02 107.20 108.20 109.02 110.03

saSualo wliuri mateba %

-0.3 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9

samomxmareblo fasebis

indeqsi

105.47 107.48 108.93 110.07 111.94 113.40 114.11

saSualo wliuri mateba %

1.4 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.6

rac Seexeba saqarTvelos, rogorc cxrilidan da grafikidan Cans, 2008wlamde rogorc deflatori, ise samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi zrdadi

dinamikiT xasiaTdeboda, ramac mniSvnelovani sxvaoba gamoiwvia mSp-is

moculobasa da mimdinare RirebulebaSi.

cxrili 7. saqarTvelos mSp mimdinare da 2003 wlis ucvlel fasebSi13

12 OECD (2004), OECD Economic Outlook, December No. 76, Volume 2004, Issue 2, OECD, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/454532272722



78

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

mSp

mimdinare

ფ სე ში,

მლნ

.

ლ რი

11620.9 13789.9 16993.8 19074.9 17986.0 20743.4 24344.0

მშპ

მუდმივ

2003

წლის

ფ სე ში,

მლნ.

ლ რი

9377.0 10276.7 12208.8 12491.4 12019.7 12771.3 13687.5

naxazi 2. saqarTvelos mSp mimdinare da 2003 wlis ucvlel fasebSi

sainteresoa 2009 wlis maCveneblebi. miuxedavad imisa, rom deflatoris

kleba dafiqsirda da saSualowliuri inflacia 2%-ic ar iyo, mSp-is orive

agregats Soris mainc mniSvnelovani dacileba SenarCunda, rac SemdgomSi

ufro gaRrmavda gazrdili inflaciis safuZvelze.

cxrili 8. mSp-is deflatorisa da samomxmareblo fasebis dinamikasaqarTveloSi14, 2005-2011

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011












79

mSp-is deflatori, 7.9 8.5 9.7 9.7 -2.0 8.5 9.5

samomxmareblo fasebis

indeqsi

9.2 9.2 10.0 1.7 7.1 8.5

rogorc ukve davrwmundiT, mSp-is fizikuri moculobis (realuri mSp-is)

dinamikis SeswavlisaTvis aucilebelia fasebis faqtoris eliminireba.

amisaTvis mSp-s gadaafaseben mudmiv fasebSi, anu mas gamosaxaven sabazisod

miCneul romelime mimdinare fasSi. miiReba mSp-is fizikuri moculobis

indeqsi, romelic gamosaxavs mSp-is moculobis cvlilebas erTsa da imave

mudmiv fasSi, magaliTad, saqarTveloSi amJamad sabazisod miCneulia 2003

wlis fasebi:

20032003

12003

q p

q p I q , (2.5)

sadac 20032003q p _ mSp-is sabaziso periodis moculobaa mudmiv 2003 wlis

fasebSi,

12003q p _ mSp-is mimdinare periodis moculobaa mudmiv fasebSi (realuri

mSp).

naxazi 3. mSp-is realuri zrda saqarTveloSi, 2005-2013

rogorc vxedavT, saqarTveloSi realuri mSp-is matebis tempebi sakmaodarastabiluria, rac savsebiT damaxasiaTebelia ganviTarebadi ekonomikebis

mqone qveynebisaTvis, Tumca aRniSnuli ver qmnis mimzidvel garemos

ucxouri investiciebis ganxorcielebisaTvis. Sedarebis mizniT SemTxveviT

SevarCioT msoflios qveynebi da SevadaroT maTi mSp-ebis matebis tempebis

trendebi.



80

naxazi 4. sxvadasxva qveynebis mSp-ebis matebis tempebi15 2002-12 wlebSi, %

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Italy

Japan

Netherlands

Norway

Portugal

Spain

Switzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

rogorc aRmoCnda, mocemuli qveynebidan yvelaze maRali tempebiT TurqeTi

gamoirCeva, yvelaze maRali mateba daaxloebiT 10%-is farglebSia (2007

wels saqarTveloSi es maCvenebeli 12%-sac gadascda), Tumca qveynebis

umravlesoba 1-3.5%-iani matebis farglebSia, Tu mxedvelobaSi ar miviRebT

2009 wlis vardnas, rac _2_6%-is farglebSi ganxorcielda, xolo

saqarTveloSi (_3.8%)-s ar gascilebia (gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom garkveuli

mdgradobis SenarCuneba mainc moxerxda, miuxedavad ruseTis mier

ganxorcielebuli agresiisa).

mSp-is gadaangariSebis meTodebi mudmiv fasebSi

mSp mudmiv fasebSi gadaangariSeba warmoebisa da saboloo moxmarebis

stadiebze xdeba. gansxvaveba maT Soris minimaluri unda iyos.

saerTod, statistikur praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba gadaangariSebis sami meTodi:

15



81

1. pirdapiri gadaangariSebis meTodi

warmoebuli an moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis raodenobas

naturalur gamosaxulebaSi amravleben mis sabaziso fasze da miiReba

mimdinare periodis gamoSvebis moculoba mudmiv fasebSi:

pqo1 =q

1 po , (2.6)

es meTodi gamoiyeneba maSin, Tu produqcia sakmaod erTgvarovania.

2. deflirebis meTodi

warmoebuli an moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis raodenobas

mimdinare fasebSi yofen Sesabamis fasebis indeqsze (paaSes indeqsi).

Secdomebis Tavidan acilebis mizniT deflireba mimdinareobs

maqsimalurad detalizebul doneze.

1011 : q pq p p , (2.7)

sadac

10

11

q p

q p I p

paaSes indeqsia

3. eqstrapolaciis meTodi

sabaziso periodis produqciis moculoba Sesadar fasebSi

mravldeba produqciis fizikuri moculobis indeqsze:

q p oo I q= q po 1 , (2.8)

Tu ara gvaqvs monacemebi naturalur sidideebSi gamosaxuli produqciis

moculobis Sesaxeb, eqstrapolaciis meTodis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi

fizikuri moculobis indeqsi icvleba dasaqmebulTa ricxovnobis indeqsiT,

an Sesabamisi naturaluri maCveneblis indeqsiT (moswavleTa raodenoba,

pacientebis ricxvi, gamomuSavebuli dro da a.S.).saqarTveloSi mSp-is mudmiv fasebSi gasaangariSeblad wina wlismaCvenebels amravleben Sesabamisi periodis realuri zrdis indeqsze16.

4. ormagi deflirebis meTodi

16 saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebi 2011 (statistikuri krebuli), Tbilisi, 2013, gv.14.



82

mSp-is moculobis Sefaseba mudmiv fasebSi SesaZlebelia saqmianobis

saxeebis mixedviT warmoebuli mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis (mudmiv

fasebSi) Sejamebis saSualebiT. am SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba gamoviyenoT ormagi

deflatirebis meTodi, romlis arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom cal-calke

gadaiTvlian mTlian gamoSvebas da Sualedur moxmarebas mudmiv fasebSi da

Semdeg akleben erTmaneTs.

mSp-is mudmiv fasebSi gadayvana saqarTveloSi jerjerobiT xdeba mxolod

warmoebis meTodiT gaangariSebuli maCveneblebis mixedviT ormagi

deflirebis gziT. es xorcieldeba fasebis Sesabamisi indeqsebis meSveobiT,

saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT mTliani gamoSvebisa da Sualeduri

moxmarebis cal-calke deflirebiT da Semdeg maTi sxvaobis gamoTvliT17.

3.4. erovnuli Semosavali

eas-is meore mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia erovnuli Semosavali, romelic

SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis

gaTvaliswinebiT (mTliani erovnuli Semosavali), (meS) da ZiriTadi

kapitalis moxmarebis gamoklebis Semdeg _ wminda erovnuli Semosavali

(weS).

erovnuli Semosavali _ warmoadgens mocemuli qveynis rezidentebis mier

miRebuli pirveladi Semosavlebis (Sromis anazRaureba, mogeba, Sereuli

Semosavali, Semosavlebi sakuTrebidan, gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da

importze) jams.

erovnuli Semosavali gansxvavdeba Sida produqtisagan rezidentebis miersazRvargareTidan miRebuli da ararezidentebisaTvis sazRvargareT

gadacemuli pirveladi Semosavlebis saldos sididiT. amgvarad, erovnuli

Semosavali gansxvavdeba Sida produqtisagan rogorc Sinaarsobrivad, aseve

raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT. Sinaarsobrivi TvalsazrisiT am or

maCvenebels Soris gansxvaveba imaSi mdgomareobs, rom Sida produqti

(mTliani an wminda) axasiaTebs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis nakadebs

(saboloos), xolo erovnuli Semosavali – Semosavlebis nakadebs

(pirvelads). raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT, rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, isini

gansxvavdebian sazRvargareTidan miRebuli (sazRvargareT gadacemuli)pirveladi Semosavlebis saldos sididiT.

makroekonomikuri parametrebis Sefasebisas erTmaneTisgan unda ganvasxvaoT

terminebi „Sida“ da „erovnuli“. mTliani erovnuli Semosavali, romelsac

adre mTliani erovnuli produqtis saxelwodebiT icnobdnen (da dResac

Cveulebis gamo zogjer ase iyeneben) zomavs rezidentebis mTlian

17 saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebi 2011 (statistikuri krebuli), Tbilisi, 2013, gv.13



83

Semosavals, amrigad, mSp-is gansazRvraSi amosavali kategoria qveynis

ekonomikuri teritoriaa, xolo meS-Si ki – rezidentoba.

cxrili 9. germaniis, luqsemburgisa da irlandiis mSp da meS18

2010 weli germania luqsemburgi irlandia

mTliani Sida

produqti

2 476 500 40 267 155 992

+ danarCeni

msofliodan

miRebuli pirveladi

Semosavlebi

183 530 75 880 58 632

_ danarCeni

msofliosTvis

gadaxdili

pirveladi

Semosavlebi

137 580 87 514 85 323

=mTliani erovnuli

Semosavali

2 522 750 28 634 129 301

gansxvaveba mSp-sa da

meS-s Soris ( )

1.87 -28.9 -17.1

aRsaniSnavia, rom did qveynebSi gansxvaveba mSp-sa da meS-s Soris didi ar

aris (mag. germania 1.87%, 2003 wels ki meS meti iyo mSp-ze 0.7%-iT), magram

didia patara qveynebisTvis, rogoricaa mag. luqsemburgi, romelic Tavisi

mSp-is did nawils xelfasisa da sxva pirveladi Semosavlebis saxiT uxdis

„danarCen msoflios“. aRsaniSnavia, rom am qveyanaSi mSp-is zrdis tendencia

meS-Tan SedarebiT wlidan wlamde izrdeba: Tu 2003 wels es gansxvaveba

mxolod 11.5% iyo, 2010 wlisaTvis ukve 28.9%-s miaRwia. pirvelad

SemosavlebSi Sedis agreTve luqsemburgSi investirebuli Tanxebidan

miRebuli sargebeli. miuxedavad imisa, rom luqsemburgi mniSvnelovan

sargebels iRebs garedanac, is 15.3%-iT naklebia gacemul Semosavlebze.

luqsemburgis msgavsad, irlandiac maRal dividendebs uxdis danarCen

msoflios. irlandiaSi mravladaa amerikuli multinacionaluri firmebis

mSobel kompaniebi, romlebic nawilobriv gadasaxadebis gamo saqmianoben

irlandiaSi. Sedegad, irlandiis meS 17.1%-iT naklebia mSp-ze da es

Tanafardobac 2003 welTan SedarebiT TiTqmis 1%-iT aris gazrdili.

luqsemburgsa da irlandiaSi meS naklebia mSp-ze, xolo Sveicariasa dagermaniaSi sapirispiro situaciaa. 2003 wlidan dawyebuli, 2008 wlis garda,

Sveicariis meS yovelTvis aWarbebda mSp-s. germaniaSi meS-is gadameteba mSp-

ze 2004 wlidan daiwyo da dRemde grZeldeba.

18 OECD (2006), National Accounts of OECD Countries: Volume I, Main Aggregates, 1993-2004, 2006 Edition,

OECD, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/783541142830



84

rac Seexeba saqarTvelos, 2003-2007 wlebSi meS sWarbobda mSp-s, 2008

wlidan ki daiwyo uku procesi, romelic dRemde grZeldeba.

cxrili 10. saqarTvelos mSp da meS19

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

mTliani Sidaproduqti

8,564.1 9,824.3 11,620.9 13,789.9 16,993.8 19,074.9 17,986.0 20,743.4 24,344.0

(+) pirveladi

Semosavlebis

miReba danarCeni

msofliodan

380.5 478.2 477.6 598.5 803.4 760.1 706.1 742.8 1273.7

(-) pirveladi

Semosavlebis

gadaxda

danarCeni

msofliosaTvis

313.3 297.7 306.8 286.0 736.8 1016.9 902.5 1383.4 1986.0

(=) mTlianierovnuliSemosavali

8,631.3 10,004.9 11,791.7 14,102.5 17,060.5 18,818.0 17,789.5 20,102.8 23,631.7

gansxvaveba mSp-

sa da meS-s

Soris ( )

-0.8 -1.8 -1.5 -2.3 -0.3 0.1 1.09 3.04 2.93

naxazze naTlad Cans es procesi. marTalia, did ryevebs am periodSi

adgili ar hqonia, magram aSkaraa, rom Semosavlebis gadinebis procesi ukve

tendenciis saxes iRebs (nax. ), rac imaSi gamoixateba, rom 2010 wlisaTvispirveladi Semosavlebis gadaxdam danarCeni msofliosTvis 1.6-jer

gadaaWarba Semosavlebis miRebas. Tu aseTi tempebiT gagrZeldeba es

procesi, 2020 wlisaTvis gadaxdili Semosavlebi 2-jer gadaaWarbebs

miRebuls da mSp-s zrdadi Tanafardoba meS-Tan SedarebiT Seuqcevad

xasiaTs miiRebs.

naxazi 5. mSp-sa da meS-is dinamika saqarTveloSi 2003-11 ww20.












85

naxazi 6. sazRvargareTidan miRebuli da sazRvargareTisTvis gadaxdili

pirveladi Semosavlebis dinamika saqarTveloSi 2003-11 ww21.

kvlav davubrundeT mTlian da wminda makroekonomikur maCveneblebs.

warmoebis procesis ganxorcielebisaTvis saWiro faqtorebia: samuSao Zala,

saqoneli da momsaxureba (Sualeduri moxmareba) da kapitali (manqana-

mowyobilobebi). es faqtorebi Seadgenen danaxarjebs. wminda

makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis misaRebad aucilebelia mTliani

damatebuli Rirebulebis gaangariSebidan gamovricxoT ZiriTadi kapitalis

21 http://geostat.ge/?action=page&p_id=121&lang=geo







86

(Senobebi, nagebobebi, Carxebi, danadgarebi, satransporto saSualebebi, muSa

da produqtuli pirutyvi da sxva) moxmareba. Sedegad miviRebT wminda

damatebul Rirebulebas. wminda Sida produqti wSp = ∑ wminda damatebuli

Rirebulebebi. wSp da weS, miuxedavad imisa, rom ufro iSviaTad

gamoiyeneba, vidre mSp da meS, ufro ukeT asaxaven warmoebisa da

Semosavlebis masStabebs, Tumca zemoT motanili mizezebisa gamo maTi

gamoyeneba SezRudulia. es mizezebi SeiZleba orad davajgufoT: pirveli,

ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gaangariSebis meTodebi rTulia da

sxvadasxva qveyanaSi gansxvavebulia, rac Sesadarisobis problemebs qmnis

da meore, qveynebis ranJirebisas an zrdis tempebis analizis dros mSp-sa

da wSp-s Soris gansxvavebebi didi ar aris da es daskvnebze gavlenas ver

moaxdens. cxrilSi motanilia dinamikaSi weS-is gaangariSebis etapebi

saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebis meTodologiis mixedviT:

cxrili 11. wminda erovnuli Semosavlis gaangariSebis safexurebisaqarTveloSi22

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

mTliani Sidaproduqti

8,564.1 9,824.3 11,620.9 13,789.9 16,993.8 19,074.9 17,986.0 20,743.4 24,344.0

mTlianierovnuliSemosavali

8,631.3 10,004.9 11,791.7 14,102.5 17,060.5 18,818.0 17,789.5 20,102.8 23,631.7

(-) ZiriTadi

kapitalis

moxmareba

932.9 976.8 1,113.5 1,306.4 1,617.0 1,758.0 1,751.4 2,126.8 2,660.8

(=) wmindaerovnuliSemosavali

7,698.4 9,028.0 10,678.3 12,796.1 15,443.4 17,060.0 16,038.1 17,976.0 20,970.9

3.5. ekonomikis mTliani saoperacio mogeba da Sereuli Semosavlebi

ekonomikis mTliani saoperacio mogeba (emsg) yvela dargisa an seqtoris

mogebaTa jamis tolia. es aris damatebuli Rirebulebis is nawili,romelic rCeba mwarmoebels xarjebis (Sromis anazRaureba, gadasaxadebi

warmoebasa da importze) dafarvis Semdeg. am muxlis saSualebiT izomeba

warmoebis mogeba (an zarali) sakuTrebidan miRebuli Semosavlebis

gaTvaliswinebamde.








87

ekonomikis wminda saoperacio mogeba (ewsm) eas-Si aris makroekonomikuri

mogebis maCvenebeli, romelic gaiangariSeba rogorc sxvaoba ekonomikis

mTlian mogebasa da ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebas Soris.

Sinameurneobebis arakorporirebuli sawarmoebisaTvis, sadac adgili

SeiZleba hqondes aunazRaurebel Sromas, mogeba icvleba Sereuli

SemosavlebiT, radgan es muxli Seicavs rogorc mewarmis Semosavlebs, ise

xarjebsac.

cxrili 12. mTliani da wminda saoperacio mogebisa da Sereuli

Semosavlebis dinamika saqarTveloSi,23 2006-2011

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sromis anazRaureba

2,293.2 3,252.3 4,422.7 5,227.3 6,010.3 7,755.2

xelfasebi 1,790.3 2,530.3 3,317.0 4,181.9 4,808.3 6,204.2

socialuri anaricxebi 502.8 722.0 1,105.7 1,045.5 1,202.1 1,551.0

gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze

1,919.5 2,587.6 2,864.2 2,752.3 3,089.5 3,751.5

gadasaxadebi produqciaze 1,800.6 2,454.3 2,639.3 2,530.9 2,834.3 3,492.7

damatebuli Rirebulebisa daaqcizis gadasaxadebi

1,668.3 2,402.3 2,587.5 2,495.0 2,763.9 3,399.5

gadasaxadi importze dRg-sa daaqcizis garda

132.4 52.0 51.9 35.9 70.4 93.2

sxva gadasaxadebi warmoebaze 118.9 133.3 224.8 221.4 255.2 258.8

(-) subsidiebi produqciaze

57.6 71.6 86.3 91.3 105.3 124.1

mTliani saoperacio mogeba

6,747.6 8,264.2 8,780.2 6,439.8 7,881.9 8,402.0

mTliani Sereuli Semosavali

2,887.2 2,961.3 3,094.0 3,657.9 3,866.9 4,559.4

saoperacio mogeba, wminda

5,571.0 6,798.5 7,194.7 4,870.6 5,974.2 5,979.1

(-) daricxuli cveTa SinameurneobebisseqtorSi

129.8 151.4 172.5 182.2 219.0 237.9

Sereuli Semosavali, wminda

2,757.4 2,810.0 2,921.5 3,475.7 3,647.9 4,321.5

3.6. gankargvadi Semosavali

Semosavlebis ganawilebisa da gadanawilebis Sedegad warmoiqmneba

erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali (mTliani _ megS, an wminda _ wegS),

romelic gansxvavdeba erovnuli Semosavlisagan sazRvargareTidan

miRebuli da sazRvargareT gadacemuli mimdinare transfertebis saldoTi.








88

aseT transfertebs miekuTvneba: humanitaruli daxmareba, gadasaxadebi

Semosavlebze, saCuqrebi sazRvargareT mudmivad mcxovrebi naTesavebisagan

da sxv.

cxrili 13. wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavlis gaangariSebis

meTodologia saqarTveloSi24

mTliani erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali (megS) aris mSp sabazro fasebSi

wminda saldo erovnul ekonomikasa da danarCen msoflios Soris

Semdegi elementebis mixedviT: gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze,

subsidiebi, Sromis anazRaureba, Semosavlebi sakuTrebidan da samewarmeo

saqmianobidan, dazRvevis operaciebi da sxva mimdinare transfertebi .

megS _ es aris realuri Semosavlebis sazomi, romelic gamoiyeneba rogorc

saboloo moxmarebisaTvis, ise dazogvisaTvis, e.i. es aris yvela Semosavlis

wyaro, romelic aucilebelia ekonomikis Semdgomi ganviTarebisa da

erovnuli simdidris zrdisaTvis.








89

3.7. mTliani danazogi

erovnuli saboloo moxmareba _ es aris Sinameurneobebis, saxelmwifo

marTvis organoebisa da Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arakomerciuliorganizaciebis(Smako) xarjebi saboloo moxmarebaze.

erovnuli danazogi _ es aris gankargvadi Semosavlis is nawili, romelic

ar aris daxarjuli saboloo moxmarebaze da SeiZleba mimarTul iqnes

dagrovebis dafinansebisaTvis.

cxrili 14. wminda danazogis, kapitalis mTliani dagrovebisa da wminda

dakrediteba/sesxebis gaangariSebis meTodologia saqarTveloSi25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011








90

danazogi da kapitaluri transfertebi erTobliobaSi qmnian erovnuli

dafinansebis wyaroebs investiciebisaTvis, romlebic Sedgeba Semdegi

elementebisagan:

1. ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba.

2. materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlileba.

3. faseulobebis wminda SeZena, anu SedarebiT xangrZlivi moxmarebis

sagnebis (saiuveliro nawarmi, xelovnebis nimuSebi, antikvariati da sxva)

SeZena.

4. arasawarmoo materialuri aqtivebis wminda SeZena (miwa, sasargeblo

wiaRiseuli sabadoebi da sxva).

5. arasawarmoo aramaterialuri aqtivebis wminda SeZena (patentebi,

saavtoro uflebebi da sxva).P

investiciebis pirveli sami elementi qmnis mTlian dagrovebas.

mTliani dagroveba gviCvenebs rezidenti erTeulebis mier saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis wminda SeZenas (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mimdinare SeZena

mimdinare moxmarebis gareSe). mTliani dagroveba moicavs Semdeg

elementebs:

ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba;

materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis mateba;

danaxarjebi faseulobaTa (saiuveliro nakeTobebi, antikvariati,

suraTebi da a.S.) SeZenaze.

ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba warmoadgens rezidenti erTeulebis

mier ganxorcielebul dabandebebs Semdegi mimarTulebebiT:

ZiriTadi kapitalis SeZena.

danaxarjebi materialuri arawarmoebuli aqtivebis gaumjobesebaze.

arawarmoebul aqtivebze sakuTrebis uflebis gadacemasTan

dakavSirebuli danaxarjebi.

materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlileba moicavs:

sawarmoo maragebs, daumTavrebel warmoebas, mza produqciasa da saqonels

xelaxali gayidvisaTvis.



91

faseulobaTa wminda Sesyidva, materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis

maragebis mateba da ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba jamSi qmnis

mTliani dagrovebis maCvenebels.

3.8. wminda dakrediteba da sesxeba

eas-is Semdegi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia wminda dakrediteba/wminda

sesxebi.

wminda dakrediteba (mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis) mocemuli qveynis

rezidentebis finansuri aqtivebis gadametebaa mocemuli qveynis

rezidentebis finansuri valdebulebebis jamze.

wminda sesxebi (mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis) _ es kategoria wminda

dakreditebis simetriulia. is uCvenebs mocemuli qveynis rezidentebis mier

sazRvargareTidan miRebuli resursebis moculobas.

eas-is ZiriTad makroekonomikur maCveneblebs Soris urTierTkavSiri

SeiZleba gamovsaxoT Semdegi sqemiT:

sqema 1. urTierTkavSiri ZiriTad makroekonomikur maCveneblebs Soris

mTliani Sida produqti

(+) pirveladi Semosavlebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan

(-) pirveladi Semosavlebis gadaxda danarCeni msofliosaTvis

(=) mTliani erovnuli Semosavali

(-) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba

(=) wminda erovnuli Semosavali

(+) mimdinare transfertebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan

(-) mimdinare transfertebis gadaxda danarCeni msofliosaTvis

(=) wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali

(-) saboloo moxmareba

(=) wminda danazogi

(+) kapitaluri transfertebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan

(-) kapitaluri transfertebis gadaxda danarCeni

msofliosaTvis

(=) kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis cvlileba danazogebisa dakapitaluri transfertebis Sedegad

(-) mTliani kapitalis formireba

(+) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba

(-) arawarmoebuli arafinansuri aqtivebis wminda Sesyidva

(-) statistikuri gansxvaveba



92

cxrili 15. urTierTkavSiris dinamika makroekonomikur agregatebs Soris,

saqarTvelo26, mln lari


(=) wminda dakrediteba (+), wminda sesxeba(-)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

mTliani Sida produqti 13,789.9 16,993.8 19,074.9 17,986.0 20,743.4

598.5 803.4 760.1 706.1 742.8

286.0 736.8 1016.9 902.5 1383.4

(=) mTliani erovnuli Semosavali 14,102.5 17,060.5 18,818.0 17,789.5 20,102.8

1,306.4 1,617.0 1,758.0 1,751.4 2,126.8

(=) wminda erovnuli Semosavali 12,796.1 15,443.4 17,060.0 16,038.1 17,976.0

1,029.1 1,280.2 1,718.3 1735.3 2108.3

111.7 133.7 121.7 118.6 151.7

(=) wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali 13,713.4 16,589.9 18,656.6 17,654.8 19,932.6

12,972.0 15,731.9 19,595.8 19,075.2 19,898.2

(=) wminda danazogi 741.5 858.0 -939.2 -1420.4 34.4

301.3 213.3 157.5 305.4 368.7

1.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3

(=) kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis cvlileba danazogebisada kapitaluri transfertebis Sedegad

1,040.9 1,070.8 -781.9 -1,115.2 402.9

4,255.3 5,447.5 4,951.6 2,342.9 4,477.7

1,306.4 1,617.0 1,758.0 1,751.4 2,126.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

-106.9 359.3 208.6 20.2 62.6

(=) wminda dakrediteba (+), wminda sesxeba(-) -1,801.1 -3,119.0 -4,184.2 -1,726.9 -2,010.6







93

Tema 4. sabazro koniunqturis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

- sabazro koniunqturis statistikis sagani da amocanebi

- koniunqturuli informaciis wyaroebi

- sabazro koniunqturis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema, arsi da

gaangariSebis meTodikasabazro situaciis koniunqturuli Sefasebebi

- riskis faqtorebi bazarze da maTi Sefaseba

- bazris potencialis, tevadobis, gajerebulobis da proporciulobis

gansazRvra

- bazris ganviTarebis, meryeobis da ciklurobis tendenciaTa analizi

- moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikurobis gazomvis statistikuri meTodebi

- sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri prognozirebis meTodebi

4.1. sabazro koniunqturis statistikis sagani da amocanebi

sabazro koniunqtura aris is konkretuli ekonomikuri situacia,

romelic Seqmnilia bazarze mocemuli momentisaTvis an drois SezRudul

monakveTSi. is yalibdeba socialur-ekonomikuri, demografiuli, bunebrivi,

organizaciuli, sazogadoebriv-politikuri da agreTve SemTxveviT

faqtorTa kompleqsis gavleniT, amdenad sabazro koniunqtura warmoadgensrTul da swrafad cvalebad movlenas.

sabazro koniunqtura nebismieri firmis mudmivi dakvirvebis sagania,

radgan misi Sefaseba da analizi komerciuli saqmianobis efeqturad

gaZRolis aucilebel pirobas warmoadgens. is aseve aucilebelia



94

samTavrobo organoebisaTvis, radgan mis gareSe SeuZlebelia bazris

regulireba (arapirdapiri gziT) saxelmwifo politikis formireba,

romelic ZiriTadad socialur-ekonomikuri da fiskaluri xasiaTis

Sesabamisi kanonebis SemuSavebiTa da miRebiT xorcieldeba.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikis Seswavlis sagans warmoadgens is

masobrivi procesebi da movlenebi, romelic gansazRvravs konkretul

sabazro situacias da eqvemdebareba raodenobriv da xarisxobriv

Sefasebas.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikis (koniunqturuli statistikis)

mniSvnelovani Taviseburebaa is, rom igi operatiulia da farTod iyenebs

xarisxobriv, atributul da alternatiul Sefasebebs, aRwerilobiTi

xasiaTis mimoxilvas, logikur daskvnebs, winaswari da prognozuli

xasiaTis informacias, saeqsperto Sefasebebs, ganviTarebis scenarebs,

specialur sabazro gamokvlevebis masalebs da sxvadasxva gziT mopovebul

informacias.

yovelive aRniSnuli warmatebiT SeiZleba iqnes gamoyenebuli

statistikur gaangariSebebSi. amdenad, sabazro koniunqturis statistika

konkurentunarianobis amRlebisa da konkurentuli brZolis mZlavr

saSualebad iTvleba, ris gamoc saSualo da msxvil firmebSi koniunqturis

qvedanayofi kargad uTavsdeba statistikisa da marketingis samsaxurebs da

praqtikulad dasaSvebia maTi erT samsaxurSi (ganyofilebaSi)

funqcionireba.

amasTan erTad, miRebulia, rom sabazro koniunqturas sami

principulad gansxvavebuli niSani gaaCnia. esenia: variantuloba,

cikluroba da dinamikuroba. rogorc cnobilia, bazars stiqiurobisaken

mniSvnelovani midrekileba aqvs. amitomacaa, rom mas axasiaTebs meryeoba,romelic rogorc SemTxveviTi, ise mudmivi xasiaTisaa. is aris cikluri da

sezonuri, agreTve Zalze moqnili, mgrZnobiared reagirebs rogorc

socialur-ekonomikuri xasiaTis faqtorebis nebismier cvlilebebze, ise



95

politikuri da fsiqologiuri tipis faqtorebze. ufro metic, igi

mgrZnobiarea sxvadasxva Worebis mimarTac.

bazari metad dinamikuria da cvalebadi, romlis sazRvrebic

farTovdeba an viwrovdeba masze moqmedi faqtorebisa da nebismieri

struqturuli cvlilebebis zegavleniT. magram mTavari isaa, rom yovelive

amis Sedegad icvleba fasebi da sasaqonlo masis moculoba bazarze, rac

iwvevs sabazro situaciisa da, maSasadame, sabazro koniunqturis

cvlilebas.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri Seswavla SeiZleba moxdes

rogorc integrirebuli da diferencirebuli, ise lokaluri bazrebis

mixedviT, agreTve mTeli qveynisa da misi calkeuli regionis, aseve

mTlianad sasaqonlo masisa (momsaxurebis masis) da calkeuli sasaqonlo

bazris mixedviT. amasTan, mxedvelobaSi unda iqnes miRebuli, rom

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris koniunqtura qveynis ekonomikuri

koniunqturisnawils warmoadgens da mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli

investiciebis, fasiani qaRaldebisa da Sromis bazrebTan. aRsaniSnavia isic,

romcalkeul bazarze Seqmnili situacia gavlenas axdens sxva danarCeni

bazrebis situaciis formirebasa da mTlianad ekonomikur koniunqturaze.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikur analizs, operatiulTan erTad,

strategiuli mniSvneloba aqvs. misi mizania gamoavlinos da modelireba

gaukeTos sabazro meqanizmis moqmedebis kanonzomierebas. es aucilebelia

ara marto bazarze Seqmnili situaciis gasarkvevad, aramed imisTvisac, rom

sworad ganisazRvros bazris ganviTarebis mimarTulebebi momavalSi.

amrigad, operatiuli da strategiuli miznebis erToblioba

ayalibebs sabazro koniunqturis statistikis ZiriTad amocanebs, romlebic

aSuqeben sabazro situaciis sxvadasxva mxareebs da elementebs: koniunqturuli informaciis mopoveba da damuSaveba;

damuSavebuli informaciis safuZvelze bazris mdgomareobis

integrirebuli da diferencirebuli Sefaseba;



96

sabazro situaciis tipologia da bazris mdgomareobis xarisxobrivi

gradacia;

bazris masStabis (moculobis) daxasiaTeba;

bazarze damyarebuli ZiriTadi proporciebis Sefaseba da analizi; bazris ganviTarebis tendenciebisa da misi dinamikuri mdgradobis

gamovlena, analizi da prognozireba;

bazris ganviTarebis meryeobis, sezonurobisa da ciklurobis analzi;

saqmiani aqtiurobis Sefaseba da analizi;

komerciuli (sabazro) riskis Sefaseba;

bazris monopolizaciis donisa da konkurenciis intensiurobis

daxasiaTeba.sabazro koniunqturis an bazris mdgomareobis statistikuri

Seswavlis aRniSnuli amocanebis praqtikuli gadawyveta SeiZleba moxdes

or etapad.

pirvel etapze analizdeba sabazro koniunqtura, romlis drosac

unda daxasiaTdes bazris masStabebi da tipologia, misi mTavari

proporciebi, ZiriTadi parametrebis cvlilebis veqtori da siCqare,

ganviTarebis mdgradobis done.meore etapze xorcieldeba ufro maRali donis analizi, romlis

procesSic dgindeba is mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebi da pirobebi, romelic

gansazRvravs sabazro situacias. yovelive amis safuZvelze xdeba sabazro

koniunqturis da bazris ganviTarebis prognozireba.

aucilebelia aRiniSnos, rom mikrodoneze, calkeuli firmis

mixedviT, firmis mmarTvelobas SeuZlia sabazro koniunqturis statistikis

winaSe dasvas ufro lokaluri da specifikuri amocanebi, romlebic

dafuZnebuli iqneba im dargis an dargTa jgufis Taviseburebebze,

romelSic firma moRvaweobs.

komerciul saqmianobaSi gansxvavebuli amocanebi SeiZleba

ganpirobebuli iyos sabiTumo da sacalo vaWrobis firmebis mixedviT,

savaWro da sazogadoebrivi kvebis firmebis mixedviT, mTlianad



97

momsaxurebis sferosa da misi calkeuli dargebis (qvedargebis) firmebis

mixedviT da a.S. am SemTxvevaSi mTavaria firmis mmarTvelebma sworad

gansazRvron rogorc statistikuri gamokvlevis amocanebi, ise maTi

gadaWris Tanmimdevroba (etapebi), raTa miRebuli Sedegebi maRalefeqturi

iyos.

4.2. koniunqturuli informaciis wyaroebi

sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri analizisaTvis gamoiyeneba

produqciis warmoebis, saqonelbrunvis, sasaqonlo maragis, fasebis,

finansebis statistikis, socialur-demografiuli statistikis da sxva

wyaroebis monacemebi. iseTi informaciis mosapoveblad ki, romelic arc

erT statistikur krebulsa Tu sxva informaciis wyaroSi araa

warmodgenili, gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva xerxi. kerZod, SerCeviTi dakvirvebis

meTodi, specialuri samomento an perioduli gamokvlevebi.

specifikuri koniunqturuli informaciis miRebaSi didi rols

TamaSoben: savaWro agentebi, mosaxleobis azris Semswavleli punqtebi,

TviT savaWro obieqtebi, gamofena-gayidvisa da bazrobebis organizebis

adgilebi da a. S. informaciis wyaro SeiZleba iyos vaWrobis muSaki

(gamyidveli, saqonelmcodne, administraciis muSaki), agreTve informacia,

romelsac Rebulobs marTvis umaRlesi rgolis xelmZRvaneli firmis

qvedanayofebSi momuSaveebisagan.

informaciis mniSvnelovani nawilis mopovebas awarmoebs firmis

marketingis ganyofileba, risTvisac igi xSirad iyenebs sxvadsxva

Sinaarsisa da moculobis specialur marketingul kvlevebs.

amrigad, sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri SeswavlisaTvisaucilebeli informaciis misaRebad mravali wyaro arsebobs rogorc

saxelmwifo, ise arasaxelmwifo struqturebidan da organizaciebidan

Sesabamis organoebSi savaldebulod warsadgen angariSgebaTa saxiT.



98

magram im SemTxvevaSi, Tu aseT wyaroebSi ar aRmoCndeba Sesabamisi

informacia, maSin am ukmarisobis Sesavsebad gamoiyeneba informaciis

mopovebis iseTi meTodebi, rogoricaa: saanketo gamokiTxva da saeqsperto

Sefaseba. aseve gamoiyeneba SedarebiT ufro axali, Tanamedrove meTodebi,

romelTagan aRsaniSnavia `delfis~ meTodi, gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis),

sineqtikis meTodi da sxv.

`delfis meTodi~ _ saxelwodeba momdinareobs Zveli berZnuli

qalaqis delfosagan, sadac arsebobda misanTa, winaswarmetyvelTa uZvelesi

centri. es meTodi SemuSavebulia aSS-is kvleviTi korporacia `rend~-is

mier. misi arsi SemdegSi mdgomareobs: dgeba mecnierulad dasabuTebuli

kiTxvarebi, romelsac eqspertTa jgufi avsebs anonimurad. miRebuli

Sefaseba muSavdeba statistikurad. pasuxebis saSualo mniSvneloba iTvleba

eqspertul Sefasebad. miRebul SefasebaTa saimedooba mniSvnelovnadaa

damokidebuli eqspertebis sworad SerCevaze, maT kvalifikaciaze,

erudiciasa da Sesaswavli sakiTxebis Sesaxeb maT informirebulobaze.

eqspertebis mier sagnis codna da analizuri SesaZleblobebi mowmdeba

testirebis gziT. Sefasebis sizuste agreTve damokidebulia kvlevis

Sedegebis statistikuri damuSavebis doneze.

upirveles yovlisa, SemuSavdeba principebi, romelic daismeba

eqspertebis winaSe, gamoiyeneba logikuri dasabuTebis meTodi, igeba

hipoTezebi kvlevis Sedegebis Sesaxeb. amis safuZvelze muSavdeba anketa.

pirvel etapze xdeba eqspertTa warmomadgenlobiTi jgufis formireba.

eqspertTa raodenoba optimaluri unda iyos. jgufis gacilebiT didi

raodenoba gaaZnelebs monacemebis damuSavebas, gaaZlierebs azrebis

gafantvas da gaadidebs kvlevis Rirebulebas, xolo eqspertebis zedmetad

mcire jgufi adidebs individualur SefasebaTa gavlenasa da SemTxveviTiSecdomebis daSvebis albaTobas. saWiroa, gonieri sakmarisobis principis

gamoyeneba, romlis Tanaxmadac eqspertebis raodenobis erTi erTeuliT

gadideba (N+1) praqtikulad ar moaxdens gavlenas eqspertTa kiTxvebze

gacemuli pasuxebis dispersiis meryeobis doneze. SesaZlebelia eqspertTa



99

kompetenturobis Sefasebis miReba (maTi ganzogadebuli Sexeduleba),

Semdegi formuliT:

m

i

i

n

i

iij

j

C

CX

X , (4.1)

sadac jX aris SefardebiTi mniSvnelobis Sefaseba (balebSi) j-uri

eqspertis mier i-uri elementis mixedviT.

C _ i-uri korespondentebis kompetenturobis koeficienti, romelic

iTvaliswinebs gansaxilveli sakiTxis codnisa da pasuxis

argumentirebis dones.

2

an C C C i

, (4.2)

sadac nC aris gansaxilveli sakiTxis codnis done;

aC _ pasuxis argumentirebis done;

i=1...m _ eqspertebis nomrebi;

m_ eqspertebis raodenoba;

j=1...n,n _ Sesaswavli elementebis nomrebi miznebis xeze.

pasuxis saSualo mniSvneloba varirebs 1 da 100 bals Soris.

100X1 j .

rac ufro metia jX , miT ufor metia j-uri elementis mniSvneloba

miznebis xeze.

calkeulij-uri elementisaTvis ganisazRvreba saeqsperto

SefasebaTa dispersia:

m

i

i

m

i

i

2

iij

2

C

C)XX(

, (4.3)



100

rac ufro mcirea meryeoba, miT metia pasuxebis SeTanxmebuloba da,

maSasadame, pasuxebis saimedooba.

gamokvlevis am meTodis dros eqspertebis gamokiTxva anonimuria,

calkeulma eqspertma ar icis, Tu mis garda kidev vin aris Cabmuli am

samuSaoSi. aseve ucnobia danarCeni anketebis Sinaarsi. dgindeba pasuxebis

ranJirebuli ganawileba atributuli da raodenobrivi niSnebis mixedviT.

gamoiTvleba pasuxebis statistikuri maxasiaTeblebi: saSualo sidideebi,

meryeobis maCveneblebi, mediana, kvartili (pirveli da mesame). am

SemTxvevaSi mediana ganixileba rogorc eqspertTa jgufuri azri

(Sexeduleba), xolo kvartilSorisi daSoreba warmoadgens eqspertTa

Sexedulebebis SeTanxmebulobis maCvenebels. rac ufro axloa eqspertebis

pasuxebis dispersiis meryeobis done nulTan, miT ufro maRalia

SeTanxmebuli Sefasebis reprezantatiuloba.

eqspertebis upirates gansjaTa (SexedulebaTa) gamovlenis Semdeg,

tardeba muSaoba maTi Tvalsazrisis dasaaxloveblad. mesame etapze yvela

eqsperts, romelTa Sefasebebic kvartilSorisi dacilebis (manZilis)

sazRvrebSia, acnoben im eqspertTa Sexedulebebis dasabuTebuli

gansxvavebebis mizezebs, romelTa Sefasebebic gamovida kvartilSorisi

dacilebis (manZilis) sazRvrebidan.

jgufSi darCenil TiToeul eqsperts eZleva ufleba Secvalos

Tavisi Sefaseba. amis Semdeg mTeli procedura meordeba axlidan,

saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi ramdenjerme, sanam Sefasebebi ar dauaxlovdeba

erTmaneTs. daaxloeba unda gagrZeldes manamde, sanam maTi saSualo

saimedod (misaRebad) ar iqneba miCneuli, SexedulebebSi arsebuli

gansxvavebebi ki _ minimumade dayvanili.

praqtikaSi xSirad es procedura tardeba gamartivebulad daSexedulebaTa mkacri gansxvavebis (gafantvis) SemTxvevaSi kmayofildebian

anketirebis erTi turiT.

eqspertis saimedobis donis maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba formuliT:

N

nR

(4.4)



101

sadac n aris mocemuli eqspertis mier gakeTebuli Sefasebebis

saerTo ricxvi;

N _ swor SefasebaTa saerTo ricxvi.

`gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis)~ meTodi warmoadgens sabazro

koniunqturis Sefasebis ufro operatiul da saimedo meTods. am meTodis

gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi xorcieldeba kvalificiuri specialistebis

SerCeva, Sefasebebi da daskvnebi keTdeba sxdomis mimdinareobisas. yvela

damswre iyofa or jgufad. pirveli jgufi koncentracias anu generacias

ukeTebs ideebsa da Sefasebebs, xolo meore aanalizebs maT. orive jgufs

hyavs saerTo xelmZRvaneli.

ganxilvisas didi yuradReba eqceva azrTa Tavisufali gacvlis

waxalisebas, amasTan, ikrZaleba wamoyenebul ideaTa da daxasiaTebaTa

aqtualobis (faseulobis) mimarT kritikuli SeniSvnebis gamoTqma.

xelmZRvaneli unda iyos miukerZoebeli da diskusia warmarTos saWiro

mimarTulebiT. rac ufro metia variantebis raodenoba, miT ufro maRalia

im namdvilad Rirebuli ideebisa da daxasiaTebaTa gamovlenis albaToba,

romelzedac daTanxmdeba monawileTa umravlesoba.praqtikaSi zogjer gamoiyeneba sineqtikis meTodi (gansxvavebuli da

erTmaneTTan aSkarad Seusabamo elementebis SeerTeba). am dros xdeba

saqmianobis (moRvaweobis) sxvadasxva sferodan specialistebis Sekreba.

calkeuli monawile TaTbirs Rebulobs rogorc Sejibrebas da

gansaxilvelad Seaqvs winaswar momzadebuli idea. miiReba is realuri

idea, romelsac mxars dauWers monawileTa umravlesoba.

aRniSnuli meTodebi farTod gamoiyeneba marketingul gamokvlevebSi

da koniunqturul gamokvlevebSi, myidvelobiTi (gadaxdisunariani)

moTxovnis gansazRvrisa da prognozirebis mizniT.



102

4.3. sabazro koniunqturis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

sabazro koniunqturis statistikis amocanebis gadawyveta

xorcieldeba maCvenebelTa sistemis meSveobiT. marTalia, sabazro

koniunqtura TavisTavad sakmaod rTuli sazogadoebrivi movlenebisa da

procesebis ricxvs miekuTvneba, magram is ufro iseTi rTuli

sazogadoebrivi movlenis erT-erTi Semadgeneli nawilia, rogoricaa

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

Sedgeba 5 blokisagan:

1. bazris (sabazro koniunqturis) formirebisa damdgomareobis

maCveneblebi;

2. fasebis mdgomareobis,cvlilebebis da maTi qcevis maCveneblebi;

3. saqonelmoZraobis maCvenebelebi;

4. bazris infrastruqturismaCvenebelebi;

5. sabazro saqmianobissocialur-ekonomikuri SedegebismaCvenebelebi.

amrigad, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris statistikis

maCvenebelTa sistemaSi umniSvnelovanesi adgili sabazro koniunqturis

statistikis maCvenebels ukavia. ramdenadac bazari rTul mravaldonian da

mravalstruqturul sistemas warmoadgens, imdenad misi statistikuri

daxasaiTeba qmnis urTierTdakavSirebul da ierarqiul sistemas, blokebsa

da elementebs, romlebic orientirebulia bazris statistikis

konceptualur da funqciur amocanebze.

statistikuri Seswavlis TvalsazrisiT, sabazro procesi

sqematurad SeiZleba aRweril iqnes Semdegnairad : upirveles yovlisa,

ganasazRvrul proporciebSi yalibdeba moTxovna da miwodeba; maTiurTierTkavSiri warmoSobs yidva-gayidvis aqts (saqonelbrunvas); saqoneli

icvleba fulze Tanabrad Sewonili fasebis Sesabamisad, romelic gamodis

sasaqonlo-fuladi gacvlis ekvivalentad sabazro meqanizmis moqmedebis

kanonis Tanaxmad.



103

es procesi Seqmnil pirobebze damokidebulebiT mimdinareobs

sxvadasxva siCqariTa da sxvadasxva veqtoriT, amasTan, adgili SeiZleba

hqondes procesis rogorc daCqarebas, ise Senelebas. aRniSnuli procesi

xorcieldeba masobrivi masStabiT da moiTxovs Sesabamis materialur,

satransporto, informaciul, SromiT da finansur uzrunvelyofas.

procesis saboloo mizans ki socialur-ekonomikuri efeqtis miReba

warmoadgens, rac imas niSnavs, rom momxmarebeli ikmayofilebs moTxovnas

(socialuri efeqti), xolo saqonlis (momsaxurebis) mwarmoebeli da

Suamaval-gamyidveli Rebulobs mogebas (ekonomikuri efeqti).

pirveli, anu sabazro koniunqturis bloki da masSi Semavali

maCvenebelTa kompleqsi gankuTvnilia sabazro situaciis kompleqsurad

dasaxasiaTeblad. is Seicavs bazris mTavar kategoriebs _ moTxovnasa da

miwodebas da asaxavs bazris masStabebsa da mTavar proporciebs, mis

tendenciebsa da meryeobas. mocemuli bloki Seicavs 9 qvejgufs, romlebic,

Tavis mxriv, aerTianebs erTgvarovan an msgavs maCveneblebs da sxvadasxva

kuTxiT axasiaTebs sabazro koniunqturas.

aRniSnuli qveblokebia (qvejgufebia):

1. saqonlis (momsaxurebis) miwodeba: mTlianad da calkeuli

saqonlis, gamyidvelebis (mwarmoeblebis, savaWro Suamavlebisa da sabazro

procesis sxva monawileebis) da regionebis mixedviT. qvejgufi Seicavs

maCveneblebs:

1.1 miwodebis moculoba, struqtura da dinamika;

1.2 miwodebis sawarmoo da sanedleulo potenciali;

1.3 miwodebis elastikuroba;

2. gadaxdisunariani (myidvelobiTunariani) moTxovna, saqonelze

(momsaxurebaze): mTlianad da calkeuli saqonlis, myidvelebisa(masobrivi da piradi momxmareblebis) da regionebis mixedviT;

2.1. diferencirebuli moTxovna Semdegi niSnebis mixedviT:

dakmayofilebis donis, cvlilebebis veqtoris, aRmocenebis formebis,

myidvelobiTi qcevis, bazris mdgomareobisa da yidvis adgilis mixedviT;



104

2.2. samomxmareblo potenciali (mTlianad da calkeuli saqonlisa

da momsaxurebis mixedviT): warmoebis saSualebaTa bazris tevadoba,

moxmarebis sagnebis bazris tevadoba da momsaxurebis bazris tevadoba;

2.3. moTxovnis elastikuroba.

3. bazris proporciuloba.

3.1. moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardoba;

3.2. warmoebis saSualebaTa, moxmarebis sagnebisa da momsaxurebis

bazrebis Tanafardoba;

3.3. saqonelbrunvis sasaqonlo struqtura;

3.4. mwarmoeblebs, sabiTumo da sacalo gamyidvelebs Soris bazris

dayofa(xvedriTi wona);

3.5. gamyidvelebis struqtura sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT;

3.6. myidvelTa struqtura (sabiTumo _ sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT,

sacalo _ socialur-demografiuli da sxva samomxmareblo

niSnebis mixedviT);

3.7. bazris regionaluri struqtura.

4. bazris ganviTarebis tendencia.

4.1. gayidvis, fasebis, sasaqonlo maragis, investiciebis da mogebis

zrdis tempebi; trendebis veqtorebi da parametrebi.

5. bazris meryeoba, mdgradoba da cikluroba.

5.1. gayidvis, fasebisa da sasaqonlo maragis variaciis koeficientebi

drosa da sivrceSi (ekonomikuri da geografiuli);

5.2.bazris ganviTarebis sezonurobisa da ganviTarebis ciklurobis

modelTa parametrebi.

6. bazris mdgomareobisa da ganviTarebis regionaluri gansxvavebebi.

6.1. moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardobisa da bazris sxvaproporciaTa regionuli variacia;

6.2. moTxovnis donis regionuli variacia (erT mcxovrebze

gaangariSebiT);

6.3. bazris dinamikuriganviTareba: veqtori siCqare,



105

7. saqmiani aqtiuroba.

7.1. SekveTebis `portfeli~, misi Semadgenloba, Sevsebuloba da

dinamika;

7.2. garigebaTa raodenoba, zoma, sixSire da dinamika;

7.3. sawarmoo (savaWro) simZlavreTa datvirTvis done.

8. komerciuli (sabazro) riski.

8.1. saivesticio riski;

8.2. marketingul gadawyvetilebaTa miRebis riski;

8.3. SemTxveviTi sabazro ryevaTa riski.

9. bazris masStabi (zoma), monopolizaciisa da konkurenciis done.

9.1. calkeuli saqonlis mixedviT bazarze warmodgenili firmebis

ricxvi, maTi ganawileba sakuTrebis formebis, organizaciuli

formebisa da specializaciis mixedviT;

9.2. saqonlis (momsaxurebis) realizaciis (gayidvis) mTliani

moculoba bazarze da firmebis ganawileba gayidvis moculobis

mixedviT;

9.3. privatizaciis done: privatizebuli firmebis ricxvi da xevdriTi

wona, maTi organizaciuli formebi, maTi xvedriTi wona bazris

mTlian moculobaSi;

9.4. bazris dayofa (firmebis dajgufeba gayidvis moculobis

xvedriTi wonis mixedviT);

9.5. mcire, saSualo da msxvili firmebis xvedriTi wona bazris

mTlian moculobaSi.

rogorc warmodgenil maCvenebelTa sistemidan Cans, masSi Sedis

sabazro koniunqturis ara marto specifikuri maCveneblebi, aramed bazris

statistikis sxva blokebis mTeli rigi maCveneblebic.sabazro koniunqturis maCvenebelTa Taviseburebas warmoadgens im

statistikuri modelebis parametrebad gamoyeneba, romlebic asaxaven

bazris tendenciebsa da ciklurobas. garda amisa, saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis bazris statistikis sxva blok-maCveneblebisagan gansxvavebiT,



106

koniunqturis blokSi mravali mniSvnelovani maCvenebeli asaxavs ara

statikur (uZrav) mdgomareobas (movlenas), aramed dinamikur da variaciul

process, xolo danarCeni maCveneblebi axasaiaTeben movlenis struqturas,

Tanafardobasa da Zvrebs (cvlilebebs).

zogierTi koniunqturuli daxasiaTebebi, kerZod, tendenciebi da

maTi mdgradoba, SesaZlebelia miRebul iqnes mxolod trenduli

modelebis Sesabamisi damuSavebis Sedegad. erT-erTi ZiriTadi moculobiTi

maCvenebeli _ moTxovna, warmoadgens iseT sidides, romlis Sefaseba

(gazomva) mxolod arapirdapiri gziTaa SesaZlebeli. meore moculobiTi

maCveneblis, bazris masStabis (zomis) daxasiaTeba ki SesaZlebelia sxva

blokebis iseT maCvenebelTa gamoyenebiT, rogoricaa: gayidvebis moculoba,

garigebebis ricxvi, gamyidvelebisa da myidvelebis raodenoba da a.S.

sabazro koniunqturis maCvenebelTa sistemis ukeTesad gagebis mizniT

ganvixiloT ZiriTad maCvenebelTa arsi da gaangariSebis Taviseburebebi.

miwodeba bazris umniSvnelovanesi maCvenebelia da Sesabamisad, sabazro

koniunqturis amosaval maCvenebels warmoadgens. miwodeba aris saqonlis

(momsaxurebis) is moculoba, romelic gankuTvnilia gasayidad da bazarze

misi myidvelisaTvis SeTavazeba xdeba garkveuli periodis manZilze,

gansazRvruli fasebiT.

sabazro koniunqturis operatiul analizSi gamoiyeneba firmis mier

saqonlis moklevadiani miwodebis maCvenebeli , e. i. saqonlis raodenoba

(moculoba), romelsac firma yidis (sTavazobs) sxvadasxva fasebSi mokle

periodis ganmavlobaSi.

bazris daxasiTebisaTvis gamoiyeneba saqonlis deficiturobis donis

maCvenebeli (kerZod, gamyidvelis bazarze, rodesac moTxovna aRematebamiwodebas), agreTve arsebobs specifikuri Taviseburebebi warmoebis

saSualebebis, samomxmareblo saqonlisa da momsaxurebis miwodebaSi.

miwodebis specifikuri formebi gamoiyeneba sabiTumo da samomxmareblo

bazrebze.



107

miwodebis determinatebad bazarze gamodis fasismieri faqtorebi ,

kerZod, mocemuli saqonlis an momsaxurebis fasi, nedleulisa da

resursebis fasi, mosalodneli inflaciuri procesebi. mas miekuTvneba

agreTve nedleulisa da mza produqciis dabegvra da dotacia,

konkurentebis ricxvi bazarze, teqnoligiis Taviseburebebi (upiratesobebi)

da mecnierul-teqnikuri miRwevebi.

cnobilia, rom gansazRvrul situaciebSi miwodebasa da moTxovnas

Soris arsebobs kavSiri. kerZod, moTxovna warmoSobs miwodebas, magram

miwodebac garkveulwilad gavlenas axdens moTxovnaze, magaliTad,

gamyidvelis bazarze, moTxovna uTanabrdeba miwodebebis SezRudul

SesaZleblobebs, xolo myidvelis bazarze miwodeba orientacias akeTebs

moTxovnaze. garkveul situaciebSi miwodeba, Tavis mxriv, warmoSobs

moTxovnas, kerZod, amas adgili aqvs bazarze zogierTi axali saqonlis

gamoCenisas. yovelive es kargadaa Seswavlili marketingisa da ekonomikuri

Teoriis mecnierebis mier da aucileblad unda iqnes gaTvaliswinebuli

bazris koniunqturis analizis procesSi.

garda aRniSnulisa, miwodebis moculobaze did gavlenas axdens

sawarmoo da sanedleulo potenciali (warmoebiTi SesaZleblobebis done).

is miuTiTebs warmoebis im SesaZleblobaTa doneze, romelic

uzrunvelyofs Sesabamisi moculobisa da struqturis saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis miwodebas bazarze.

miwodebis ara naklebmniSvnelovan maCveneblad SeiZleba miCneul

iqnes miwodebis elastikuroba, e.i. misi cvlilebis done, romelic

xorcieldeba miwodebis determinatebis, kerZod, resursebis fasebis,

warmoebis teqnologiis, gadasaxadebisa da dotaciebis, saqonlis fasebis,

gamyidvelTa raodenobis da sxva cvlilebis gavleniT.Semdeg umniSvnelovanes maCvenebels sabazro koniunqturis

maCvenebelTa sisitemaSi moTxovna anu gadaxdisunariani (myidvelobiTi)

moTxovna warmoadgens. gadaxdisunariani moTxovna aris is moTxovnileba



108

(moTxovnilebis nawili), romelic uzrunvelyofilia fuladi saxsrebiT da

warmodgenilia bazarze .

moTxovnilebaSi ki igulisxmeba survili an saWiroeba daeuflo

(isargeblo) raime produqts an sagans, romelic aucilebelia adamianis

cxovrebisaTvis. arsebobs moTxovnisa da moTxovnilebis ramdenime

gansxvavebuli ganmarteba.

moTxovnis formirebisa da dakmayofilebis procesi SeiZleba

warmodgenil iqnes Semdegi TanmimdevrobiT: survili, saWiroeba,

moTxovnileba, fuli, moTxovna, fasebi, miwodeba, yidva, dakmayofileba.

aRsaniSnavia, rom mocemuli Tanmimdevrobis calkeuli etapi eqvemdebareba

statistikur, marketingul da sxva saxis kvlevebs .

statistikuri kvlevebis dros moTxovnis danawevreba saSualebas

iZleva ufro moqnilad Sefasdes bazris mdgomareoba da mocemuli

saxeobis moTxovnis prognozirebisas gamoyenebul iqnes mxolod is

faqtorebi, romelic uSualo gavlenas axdens masze.

warmoqmnis formebis mixedviT moTxovna SeiZleba iyos:

potencialuri, romelic arsebobs axali saqonlis ideis dabadebis,

misi SemuSavebis, proeqtirebisa da saqonlis bazarze gamosavlelad

mosamzadebel periodSi;

formirebadi moTxovna _ warmoiSoba axali saqonlis bazarze

gamosvlis sawyis stadiaSi, rodesac myidveli mxolod ecnoba mis

Tvisebebs ZiriTadad reklamis saSualebiT;

Camoyalibebuli moTxovna, romelic Seesabameba saqonlis bazarze

aRiarebis dones;

sezonuri moTxovna _ icvleba wlis ganmavlobaSi warmoebisa da

moxmarebis sezonuri xasaiaTis Sesabamisad, agreTve klimaturi,

erovnuli wes-CveulebaTa Taviseburebebis, individualuri

moTxovnebisa da sxva faqtorebis zegavlenis mixedviT. moTxovnis

aRniSnuli saxeobebi dakavSirebulia saqonlis sasicocxlo

ciklebTan.



109

garda aRniSnulisa, marketinguli gamokvlevebisas gamoiyeneba

moTxovnis sxvanairi dayofac, romelic efuZneba myidvelTa ganzraxvebis

sxvadasxvaobas. kerZod, arsebobs:

mtkiced formirebuli moTxovna ,rodesac myidveli moiTxovs mxolod

gansazRvruli saxeobis saqonels da ar surs misi Semcvleli

saqoneli;

alternatiuli moTxovna (rbili, kompromisuli moTxovna), roca

myidveli Tanaxmaa erTi saxeobis saqoneli Secvalos meore saxeobis

saqonliT;

spontanuri (impulsuri) moTxovna,romelic aRmocendeba TviT

myidvelisTvisac moulodnelad, roca is bazarze (savaWro obieqtis

daxlze) SemTxveviT aRmoaCens momxiblav saqonels.

panikuri (aJiotaJuri) moTxovna , romlis obieqts SeiZleba

warmoadgendes nebismieri saqoneli masze realuri moTxovnis

arsebobis damoukideblad. aseTi moTxovnis arsebobis safuZveli

SeiZleba iyos inflaciisagan dacvis an saqonlis SemTxveviT

(moulodneli) gaqrobisagan dazRvevis survili.

statistikuri kvlevebis ganxorcielebisas gansakuTrebuli miSvneloba

eniWeba bazrris mdgomareobis mixedviT moTxovnis dayofas, kerZod,

gamoiyofa moTxovnis Semdegi saxeobebi:

negatiuri moTxovna,rodesac myidvelis mxridan arsebobs

winaswarCamoyalibebuli uaryofiTi damokidebuleba saqonlis mimarT,

an saqonelma Tavi moabezra myidvels;

moTxovnis sruli ar arseboba , roca raRac mizeziT saqonels ar

cnobs myidveli da aRar yidulobs mas;

dafaruli moTxovna,rodesac arsebobs gansazRvruli moTxovna,

magram Sesabamisi Tvisebebis mqone saqoneli ar (jer ar) iwarmoeba;

srulyofili moTxovna,roca moTxovna saqonelze umaRles fazaSia

dagamyidvelebi kmayofilebi arian gayidvis moculobiT (amonagebiT,

saqonelbrunviT).



110

zogjer gamoiyofa gadaWarbebuli moTxovna,rodesac ise izrdeba

moTxovna, rom warmoeba ver akmayofilebs mas. moTxovnis am saxeobis

mixedviT Catarebuli statistikuri analizi saSualebas aZlevs

komerciul firmas sworad SeimuSavos sabazro starategia da

miaRwios maRalrentabelobas.

Zviri saqonlis bazarze gamoyofen gadadebul (dagrovebiT)

moTxovnas, romlis dasakmayofileblad saWiroa fulis dagroveba

garkveuli periodis manZilze. aseTi moTxovnis arsebobis codna

metad aucilebelia produqciis warmoebis dagegmvis an saqonlis

ganvadebiT gayidvis organizebisas. aRniSnuli saxeobis moTxovna

vlindeba mosaxleobis fuladi danazogebis matebis saxiT.

moTxovnis saxeobad dayofa, agreTve, warmoebs teritoriuli

TvalsazrisiTac. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu moTxovnis statistikuri analizi

moicavs qveynis mTlian teritorias, maSin mas uwodeben globalur

moTxovnas, romlisagan gamoiyofaqalaqisa da soflis moTxovna .

regionaluri moTxovnis analizisas gamoiyofa adgilobrivi mosaxleobis

moTxovna, romelsac uwodeben stacionalur (sabaziso) moTxovnas da

mobiluri (migrirebadi) moTxovna, romelic vlindeba mudmivi sacxovrebeli

adgilis sazRvrebs miRma. am ukanaskneli moTxovnis saxesxvaobas

warmoadgensrekreaciuli moTxovna, romelic dakavSirebulia turizmsa da

dasvenebasTan.

sabazro koniunqturis analizisas gamoiyofa dakmayofilebuli

moTxovna , romelic ZiriTadad utoldeba gayidvis moculobas da

daukmayofilebeli moTxovna , romelic vlindeba saWiro saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis SeZenis SeuZleblobaSi.

statistikur analizSi agreTve gamoiyeneba deficiturobis donis

maCvenebeli, romelic gansazRvravs im saqonlis xvedriT wonas, romelic

ar imyofeba regularul gayidvaSi. rodesac deficiturobis donis

maCvenebeli uaxlovdeba 100%-s, saqme gvaqvs totalur deficitTan .



111

imis gamo, rom moTxovna metad moqnilia, igi mgrZnobiarea mravali

faqtoris zemoqmedebis mimarT.

rogorc cnobilia, moTxovnis determinantebad, upirveles

yovlisa,fasismieri faqtorebi gvevlineba. Tu moTxovnis kanons, romelic

dawvrilebiTaa ganxiluli ekonomikuri Teoriisadmi miZRvnil

saxelmZRvaneloebSi (ekonomikuri Teoriis safuZvlebi, ekonomiksi,

ekonomika da a.S.), grafikuli modelis saxiT gamovxatavT, miviRebT fasebis

cvlilebebze moTxovnis damokidebulebis amsaxvel hiperbolur mruds. sxva

Tanabar pirobebSi, Tu fasi izrdeba, maSin moTxovna saqonelze

klebulobs.

gasaTvaliswinebelia isic, rom moTxovnaze mniSvnelovan gavlenas

axdens mosaxleobis realuriSemosavlebisdone anu momxmarebelTa

gadaxdisunarianoba.

amasTan, moTxovnas gaaCnia sazRvrebi, romelic izRudeba bazris

gajerebulobis doniT da ganisazRvreba bazarze arsebuli saqonlis

moculobiT.

mxedvelobaSi miiReba aseve mosaxleobis mflobelobaSi arsebuli

xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebi, romlebic jer kidev vargisia

gamosayeneblad da is garemoeba, rommosaxleoba mTliani moTxovnis

garkveul nawils ikmayofilebsarasasaqonlo wyaroebidan (saojaxo

meurneoba da sxv.).

garda amisa, samomxmareblo bazarze moTxovna damokidebulia rig

faqtorze:

demografiuli (mosaxleobis raodenoba da misi cvlileba,

mosaxleobis asakobrivi struqtura, dasaxlebis tipebi, migraciuli

procesebi, ojaxebis Semadgenloba; urbanizaciis done da a. S.);socialur-ekonomikuri faqtorebi (dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis done,

momuSaveTa profesiuli Semadgenloba, mosaxleobis danawileba

Semosavlebis mixedviT da a.S.);



112

geografiuli da klimaturi faqtorebi, erovnuli Taviseburebebi,

fsiqologiuri faqtorebi, sazogadoebriv-politikuri faqtorebi da a. S.

bazris mdgomareobis umniSvnelovanes maxasiaTebels miekuTvneba

proporciuloba, romlis maCveneblebidan aRsaniSnavia moTxovnisa da

miwodebis Tanafardoba.

sabazro koniunqturis analizisas erTob Znelia faqtobrivi

monacemebis safuZvelze moTxovnisa da miwodebis moculobaTa Sedareba.

aseT SesaZleblobas iZleva moTxovnisa da miwodebis balansi (ix. cxr.4.1),

magram misi ageba SesaZlebelia mxolod saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

mTliani erTobliobiT (moculobiT).

cxrili 4.1

moTxovnisa da miwodebis balansis sqema

msyidvelobiTi fondebi sasaqonlo resursebi

mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebi,

Semosuli yvela wyarodan, savaldebulo

gadasaxadebis da danazogis im nawilis

matebis gamoklebiT, romelic

gankuTvniliasocialuri

saWiroebisaTvisda saqonlis yidvasTan

kavSirSi ar myofi sxva miznebisTvis.

fuladi saxsrebi (danazogebi),

dauxarjavi gadadebuli moTxovnisa da

daukmayofilebeli moTxovnis gamo

jami

saSualo sasaqonlo maragi weliwadSi

realizebulia saqoneli weliwadSi

gaweulia momsaxureba weliwadSi

jami

saldo (+, _)

sasaqonlo birJebze moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardoba

ganisazRvreba yidvasa da gayidvaze wardgenili gancxadebis moculobebis

mixedviT.



113

calkeuli saqonlis bazris proporciis Sefasebisas statistika

iZulebulia daeyrdnos koniunqturuli indikatorebis daxmarebiT

moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardobis Sesaxeb gakeTebul arapirdapir

Sefasebebs, romelsac miekuTvneba fasebisa da sasaqonlo maragis cvlileba

dinamikaSi. Tu isini (moTxovna-miwodeba) gawonasworebulia, maSin

indikatorebi stabiluria, xolo disproporcia indikatorebis cvlilebiT

aRiniSneba.

fasebi wminda an monapoliuri konkurenciis bazarze, ufro dabali

doniT oligopoliur bazarze, iswrafvian Tanabari donisaken da sakmaod

mgrZnobiared reagireben moTxovnisa da miwodebis proporciis

cvlilebebze.

ufro saimedo indikatoria sasaqonlo maragi, romelic izrdeba

maSin, roca miwodeba dinamikaSi uswrebs moTxovnas da piriqiT, mcirdeba,

Tu moTxovna uswrebs miwodebas.

bazris proporciulobis Sefaseba SesaZlebelia sabalanso meTodis

meSveobiT, struqturisa da koordinaciis SefardebiTi MmaCveneblebiT

(Sefardebis koeficientebis, xvedriTi wonebis), zrdis tempis indeqsebiT,

struqturuli cvlilebebis indeqsebiT, saSualo kvadratuli an wrfivi

gadaxrebiT.

proporciebi agreTve gamoisaxeba elastikurobis koeficientiT,

romelic uCvenebs saSedego maCveneblis cvlilebas faqtoruli niSnis erTi

procentiT cvlilebisas (gadidebis an Semcirebisas).

bazari diniamikuri movlenaa, misi drois mixedviT cvlileba

gamoisaxeba dinamikis maCvenebelTa sistemiT . kerZod, es xdeba dinamikuri

mwkrivebis maCveneblebiTa da maTi analizis saSualebiT.

sabazro procesebis cvlilebis tendenciaTa (zrdis, Semcirebis)gamovlenis ZiriTad meTods trenduli modelis ageba warmoadgens. masTan

erTad aseve gamoiyeneba grafikuli meTodebi .

bazari, Tundac regulirebadi, warmoudgenelia stiqiuri

gamovlinebebis gareSe. es movlena sabazro meqanizmis moqmedebis



114

ganuyofel Tvisebas warmoadgens. misi swrafva moTxovnisa da miwodebis

gawonasworebisaken miiRweva gamudmebiT warmoSobil disproporciaTa

daRweviT.

bazris es Tviseba, dakavSirebuli misi ganviTarebis stiqiurobasTan,

vlindeba bazris sxvadasxva parametrebis ryevadobaSi. statistikurad igi

xasiaTdeba gayidvis, fasebis, sasaqonlo maragis variaciis sxvadasxva

maCveneblebiT. bazris ganviTarebis mdgradobis done droSi xasiaTdeba

ZiriTad tendenciebidan (trendidan) faqtiuri donis gadaxrebiT, rac

gaizomeba aproqsimaciis koeficientiT , gamosaxuliT procentebSi saSualo

donesTan mimarTebiT.

bazris ganviTrebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia ganmeorebadoba, anu

cikluroba. ciklebs axasiaTebs gansxvavebuli xangrZlivoba da

Tanmimdevroba. wlis ganmavlobaSi Cveulebriv SeiniSneba sezonuri

meryeoba, romlis intensivobac ganisazRvreba variaciis koeficientiT.

sezonuri ciklebi gansxvavebulia calkeuli saqonlisa da

momsaxurebisaTvis da sxvadasxvanairad vlindeba sxvadasxva ekonomikur da

klimatur zonebSi. sezonuroba, Cveulebriv , modelirdeba me-3 da ufro

maRali rigis parabolebiT.

saqonelbrunva

savaWro saqmianobisa da saerTod, bazris statistikis mTavar maCvenebels

saqonelbrunva warmoadgens.

saqonelbrunvis maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba bazris koniunqturis Sesafaseblad,

sasaqonlo masis moculobis gasazomad, savaWro firmis zomis gansazRvrisaTvis,

savaWro firmis fuladi amonagebis maCveneblad da misi finansur-ekonomikuri

mdgomareobis dasadgenad.

is aCvenebs myidvelebis mier saqonlis SeZenaze daxarjuli fulis zomas da

moxmarebuli sasaqonlo masis moculobas. Ggarda amisa, saqonlis gayidvis

maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba wonebad fasebis indeqsebis gaangariSebisas.

amrigad, saqonelbrunva metad mravalmxriv da didmniSvnelovan maCvenebels

warmoadgens, romelsac makroekonomikur doneze, rogorc ekonomikuri, ise

socialuri mniSvneloba aqvs.



115

aseve SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqonelbrunva realizebuli fasebis jamobrivi

maCvenebelia, romelsac safuZvlad udevs sami ZiriTadi faswarmomqneli elementi:

saqonlis warmoebis danaxarjebi, mimoqcevis sferoSi (gayidvaze) gaweuli

danaxarjebi da saqonelmoZraobis yvela doneze miRebuli mogeba.

ra Tqma unda, saboloo jamSi, yvela am danaxarjis gadaxda xdebamomxmareblis mier (aq igulisxmeba konkurentunariani saqoneli da momsaxureba,

romlis gayidvac garantirebulia). amitom saqonelbrunvis moculoba SeiZleba

miCneul iqnes dakmayofilebuli moTxovnis moculobad .

saqonelbrunva ZiriTadad izomeba RirebulebiT erTeulebSi , rac ar gamoricxavs

mis gazomvas naturalur an pirobiT-naturalur erTeulebSi.

RirebulebiT erTeulebSi saqonelbrunvis sidide Q damokidebulia

gayiduli saqonlis raodenobaze (q) da erTeuli saqonlis fasze (p), amrigad,

saqonelbrunva SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes Semdegi formuliT:

Q= pq.

nebismier qveyanaSi mTliani saqonelbrunva SeiZleba warmodgenil iqnes

Semdegi ierarqiuli sistemis saxiT: saqonlis yidva-gayidvis aqti uSualod

xorcieldeba firmaSi, romelic SeiZleba iyos rogorc msxvili savaWro firma,

ise individualuri an saojaxo. Tavis mxriv, nebismieri savaWro firmis

saqonelbrunvis moculoba iqneba es sabiTumo Tu sacalo vaWrobis firma, moicavs

erTeuli yidva-gayidvis aqtebis erTobliobas.

msxvil firmaSi saqonelbrunvis mTliani moculoba Sedgeba misi calkeuli

filialisa Tu qveganyofilebis saqonelbrunvaTa moculobis jamisagan. mocemulidargis saqonelbrunvis moculoba Sedgeba dargis pirveladi rgolebis _

firmebis saqonelbrunvis moculobaTa jamisagan, xolo qveynis saqonelbrunvis

moculoba aerTianebs arsebuli dargebis, qvedargebis, qvedargobrivi jgufebisa

da produqciis da momsaxurebis calkeuli saxeobebis (romlebic raime mizeziT ar

miekuTvnebian romelime dargs) saqonelbrunvas.

amrigad, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqonelbrunva yidva-gayidvis aqtebis

erTobliobaa.

amasTan, mxedvelobaSi unda miviRoT is garemoeba, rom saqonelbrunvis

aRricxva xorcieldeba saqonlis momxmarebelTan (myidvelTan) faqtobrivadgagzavnis momentSi. myidveli swored am droidan xdeba saqonlis mesakuTre.

saboloo Sedegobrivi TvalsazrisiT (magaliTad, qveynis an dargobriv doneze),

saqonelbrunva maCvenebelTa sistemaSi makromaCveneblis rolSi gamodis. is

SeiZleba diferencirebul iqnes saxadasxva niSnis mixedviT da warmoqmnas

mikromaCveneblebi, romlebic asaxaven saqonelmoZraobis calkeul mxareebs.



116

imis gamo, rom saqonelbrunva warmoadgens sinTezur maCvenebels, misi

analizi SeiZleba gakeTdes Semadgeneli struqturuli erTeulebis mixedviT.

kerZod, qveynis masStabiT saqonelbrunva SeiZleba gaanalizdes teritoriul

WrilSi _ msxvili regionebis, qalaqebisa da raionebis, aseve gayiduli saqonlis

daniSnulebis an sxva niSnis mixedviT.

am mxriv gamoyofen warmoebis saSualebaTa saqonelbrunvas, moxmarebis

sagnebis saqonelbrunvasa da momsaxurebis gayidvas. aseve gamoiyofa saxelmwifo

da municipaluri firmebisa (organizaciebisa) da ekonomikis kerZo seqtoris

firmebis saqonelbrunva. calke SeiZleba gaanalizdes soflis meurneobis

produqciis saxelmwifo Sesyidvisa da kerZo gayidvis moculoba da a.S.

vaWrobis dargis firmebis saqonelbrunva savaWro-saSuamavlo

saqonelbrunvaa.

makrodoneze SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes saqonelbrunvis saerTo

moculobis nakrebi maCvenebeli, romelSic gaerTianebulia zemoT dasaxelebuliyvela elementi. am maCvenebliT SeiZleba ganisazRvros saqonelbrunvis roli

ekonomikaSi (saqonelbrunvis xvedriTi wona mTlian Sida erovnul produqtSi),

piradi moxmarebis xvedriTi wona ekonomikaSi (samomxmareblo produqtebisa da

momsaxurebaze gaweuli danaxarjebis xvedriTi wona mTlian erovnul produqtSi)

da sxv.

rogorc aRvniSneT, saqonelbrunvis procesSi monawileobas iReben savaWro

Suamavlebi. rac ufro metia Suamavlebi, miT ufro izrdeba saqonelbrunvis

maCvenebeli, radgan izrdeba erTi da imave saqonlis gayidvaTa ricxvi da mas

saerTo (mTliani) saqonelbrunva ewodeba.

amrigad, mwarmoeblidan momxmareblamde mimaval gzaze ganxorcielebuli

yvela gayidvis jami qmnis mTlian saqonelbrunvas.

advili misaxvedria, rom am SemTxvevaSi adgili aqvs ganmeorebiT

aRricxvebs , ris gamoc xelovnurad izrdeba saqonelbrunvis faqtobrivi

moculoba, romlis sididec saqonelmoZraobis rgolebis ricxvis

pirdapirproporciulia. amitom mTliani saqonelbrunvis maCvenebeli ar SeiZleba

gamoyenebul iqnes seriozuli ekonomikuri gaangariSebebis dros.

saqonelbrunvis realuri moculobis dasadgenad, romelic gaivlis mTlian gzas

mwarmoeblidan momxmareblamde, gaiangariSeben maCvenebels, romelic gamoricxavsganmeorebiT aRricxvas da mas uwodeben wminda saqonelbrunvas.

wminda saqonelbrunvaSi igulisxmeba saqonlis saboloo, ganumeorebadi

(ganuaxlebadi) gayidva.

saboloo gayidva niSnavs, rom saqonlis mocemuli partia (mocemuli

saqoneli) metad aRar gaiyideba. imis gamo, rom wminda saqonelbrunva



117

gaTavisuflebulia ganmeorebiTi aRricxvisagan, is warmoadgens saqonelbrunvis

statistikis mTavar SefasebiT da sabazo maCvenebels.

wminda saqonelbrunva gamoiyeneba savaWro (gamsaRebeli) firmis

(organizaciis) komerciuli saqmianobis Sedegebis Sesafaseblad, misi zomis

dasadgenad, mimoqcevis danaxarjebis gasaangariSeblad da rentabelobis donisgansazRvrisaTvis.

praqtikuli TvalsazrisiT, firmebis mier erTmaneTisaTvis saqonlis miyidva

TviToeulisaTvis iqneba wminda saqonelbrunva, magram firmebis mTeli

erTobliobisaTvis igi mTliani (sabiTumo) saqonelbrunvaa .

gayidvebis aseTi saerTo jami ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis Sedegadaa miRebuli,

amitom monacemebis Sekrebisas igi unda gamoiricxos.

yovelive aRniSnuli SeiZleba warmodgenil iqnes sqemis saxiT (ix. sqema 2).

gaangariSebaTa gaadvilebis mizniT, mxedvelobaSi ar miiReba SesaZlo

danakargebis moculoba, saqonlis fasis cvlileba (romelic SeiZleba gamowveuli

iyos mimoqcevis xarjebis cvlilebiT) da erovnuli valutis inflacia.

rogorc sqemidan Cans, saqonelmoZraobis mTeli sistemisaTvis

saqonelbrunvis moculoba Seadgens 300 mln lars (180+120).

pirvel arxze mTliani saqonelbrunva udris 180 mln lars (60+60+60=180),

xolo wminda saqonelbrunva Seadgens 60 mln lars.

meore arxze mTliani saqonelbrunva 120 mln laris tolia (80+20+20=120),

xolo wminda saqonelbrunva udris 20 mln lars.

amasTan, mTliani wminda saqonelbrunvis moculoba ar aris toli

saqonelmoZraobis calkeuli arxis (ori arxi) wminda saqonelbrunvis moculobis

jamis, anu 140 mln larisa (80+60=140), radgan sabiTumo saSuamavlo firmis mier

wvril sabiTumo firmaze miyiduli saqoneli 60 mln laris moculobiT sistemaSi

mocemuli mTeli vaWrobisaTvis warmoadgens Sida saqonelbrunvas da

ganmeorebiTaa aRricxuli. wminda saqonelbrunva ki udris saboloo gayidvas

(romelic am SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis mier moixmareba) da Seadgens 80 mln lars

(20+60=80).



118

amave Sedegs miviRebT, Tu zemoT gaangariSebul orive arxis wminda

saqonelbrunvaTa jamidan gamovricxavT ganmeorebiT aRricxvas. kerZod, 140-60=80

mln lars.

maSasadame, realuri an wminda saqonelbrunvis moculobis dasadgenad

mTavaria saqonlis xelaxali gayidvis ricxvis dadgena, anu saqonelmoZraobis

rgolurobis koeficientis gaangariSeba.

saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba mTliani

saqonelbrunvis SefardebiT wminda saqonelbrunvasTan .

produqciis mwarmoebeli firma

sabiTumo saSuamavlo firma

wvrili sabiTumo firma sacalo vaWrobis firma #1

sacalo vaWrobis firma #2

m o s a x l e o b a

6 0 m l n l a r i

6 0 m l n l a r i

20mlnla

ri

80 mln lari

20

mln 6 0 m l n l a r i

sqema 2.2

saqonelmoZraoba firmaTSorisi kavSirebis gamoyenebiT



119

es damokidebuleba SeiZleba gamoisaxos Semdegi formuliT:

,Q

QC

wm

mTrg.

sadac C aris saoqnelmoZraobis rgolurobis koeficienti;

QmT _ mTliani saqonelbrunvis moculoba;

Qwm – wminda saqonelbrunvis moculoba.

Cvens magaliTSi saqonelbrunvis rgolurobis koeficienti pirveli

arxisaTvis udris:

25,280

180

rg.C

rgols.

meore arxisaTvis rgolurobis koeficienti tolia:

5,180

120rg.C rgolis.

mTeli sistemisaTvis (orive arxisaTvis) saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis

saSualo koeficienti Seadgens:

75,380

300

80

120180C

saS. rgols.

rogorc ukve aRiniSna, aseTi gaangariSeba swor Sedegs iZleva im

SemTxvevaSi, Tu saqonlis mTlianma moculobam danakargebisa da sasaqonlo

maragebis cvlilebis gareSe miaRwia bolo rgols.

aRniSnuli gaangariSebis praqtikuli gamoyenebisaTvis saWiroa sasaqonlo

maragis cvlilebebis gansazRvra da maTi Setana gaangariSebaSi.

sasaqonlo maragis cvlileba SeiZleba ganisazRvros saangariSo wlis

bolosa da axali wlis (periodis) dasawyisisaTvis arsebuli sasaqonlo maragis

sxvaobiT . is gaiangariSeba formuliT:L



120

,ZZZ dg

sadac ΔZ aris sasaqonlo maragis cvlileba (mateba an kleba),

Zg _ maragi wlis (periodis) bolosaTvis;

Zd _ maragi wlis dasawyisisaTvis.

rodesac aRricxvis an sxva mizezebis gamo firmaSi ar moipoveba monacemebi

sasaqonlo maragis Taobaze, maSin SesaZlebelia saqonelmoZraobis sabalanso

formulis meSveobiT ganisazRvros sasaqonlo maragis absoluturi cvlileba :

ddZSqZ

,

sadac Zd da Zb aris sasaqonlo maragis moculoba Sesabamisad periodis

(wlis) dasawyisSi da bolos;

q _ saqonelbrunvis sferoSi Semosuli saqonlis moculoba

mocemul periodSi;

S _ saqonlis gayidvis moculoba amave periodSi.

zogadad, sasaqonlo maragis mateba udris saqonlis Semosvlasa da gayidvas

Soris sxvaobas. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu Semosuli saqonlis gayidvis moculoba

aRemateba saqonlis gayidvis moculobas, maSin adgili aqvs sasaqonlo maragiszrdas, xolo Tu Semosvla gayidvaze naklebia, sasaqonlo maragi mcirdeba. Tu

saqonlis Semosvla gayidvis tolia, maSin sasaqonlo maragi ucvleli rCeba.

praqtikuli miznebisaTvis, saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis koeficientis

gaangariSebisas, aucilebelia sasaqonlo maragis cvlilebis gaTvaliswineba.

kerZod, sasaqonlo maragis gadidebis SemTxvevaSi matebis moculoba (Tanxa)

emateba rgolurobis koeficientis mricxvels da mniSvnels, xolo sasaqonlo

maragis Semcirebisas _ Semcirebis moculoba (Tanxa) gamoakldeba aRniSnuli

koeficientis mricxvelsa da mniSvnels. amasTan, gaTvaliswinebul unda iqnes, romTu maragis cvlileba moxda ara sacalo, aramed sabiTumo rgolSi, maSin

Sesworeba Setanil unda iqnes koeficientis mxolod mricxvelSi.

savaWro saqmianobis analizisas aranaklebi mniSvneloba eniWeba iseTi

xarisxobrivi mikromaCveneblis gaangariSebas, rogoricaa: saqonelbrunvis



121

sasaqonlo struqtura, romlis drosac jer gaiangariSeba, xolo Semdeg

analizdeba calkeuli saqonlis an sasaqonlo jgufis (erTgvarovnebis mixedviT)

xvedriTi wona gayidvis mTlian moculobaSi.

saqonelbrunvis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia saqonelbrunvis

moculoba erT mcxovrebze. is gaiangariSeba mocemul periodSi (Cveulebriv

weliwadSi) saqonelbrunvis moculobis SefardebiT qveynis (regionis)

mosaxleobis saSualo (saSualowliur) raodenobasTan. es damokidebuleba

SeiZleba gamoisaxos formuliT:

, N

QQ

m

sac

mcx

sadac Qmcx aris saqonelbrunvis moculoba erT mcxovrebze;

Qsac _ sacalo saqonelbrunvis moculoba;

Nm _ mosaxleobis saSualowliuri raodenoba.

magaliTi. qveynis (regionis) mosaxleobis raodenobam wlis dasawyisSi Seadgina

4560 aTasi kaci, xolo wlis bolos 4750 aTasi kaci anu saSualowliuri

raodenoba udris 4655 aTas kacs ( 46552

47504560

aTasi kaci). qveyanaSi

(regionSi) sacalo saqonelbrunvis moculobam Seadgina 3450 aTasi lari.

amrigad, saqonelbrunvis moculoba erT mcxovrebze udris 741 lars

lariaTasi

lariaTasi

lariaTasi 741

4655

3450.

es maCvenebeli asrulebs ormag funqcias: zomadobis faqtoris gamoricxviT

(mosaxleobis ricxovnobis) uzrunvelyofs regionaluri saqonelbrunvis

maCveneblebis Sesadarisobas, da, axasiaTebs ra saqonlis Sesyidvebis saSualo

individualur dones, gamoiyeneba dinamikur SedarebebSi e.i vaWrobis socialuri

efeqtianobis maCvenebelia .

sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi nebismier formaSi mimarTaven marketingul

gamokvlevebs, romlis drosac gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba eniWeba iseTi

maCveneblis gaangariSebas, rogoricaa _ bazris tevadoba.



122

bazris tevadoba gaiangariSeba calkeuli saqonlis an msgavs saqonelTa jgufis

mixedviT. is SeiZleba ganisazRvros Semdegi formuliT:

H=N·S·C – (Q – Kf – Kg) – – V ,

sadac H aris bazris tevadoba, anu saqonlis is raodenoba, romelic

SeiZleba aiTvisos bazarma garkveul pirobebSi;

N – firmis gavlenis (momsaxurebis) sferoSi arsebuli momxmareblis

raodenoba;

S – saqonlis saSualo moxmarebis moculoba (zoma) erT momxmarebelze

gaangariSebiT (normativiT, saeqsperto SefasebiT, prognoziT, an sabaziso

periodSi);

C _ moTxovnis elastikurobis koeficienti Semosavlebze an fasebze

damokidebulebiT, romelic gaiangariSeba formuliT:

,P

Q:

P

CC

0

0

sadac Q aris moxmarebis (moTxovnis) zrda erT mcxovrebze;

0Q da 1Q _ moxmareba fasebis cvlilebamde da cvlilebis Semdeg;

P _ fasebis zrda;

0P da 1P _ fasi Sesabamisad cvlilebamde da cvlilebis Semdeg;

Q _ momxmareblis mflobelobaSi arsebuli saqonli;

Kf da Km _ momxmareblis mflobelobaSi arsebuli saqonlis

fizikuri da moraluri cveTa;

– moTxovnis alternatiuli dakmayofilebis wyaroebi;

V _ konkurentebis mier gayiduli (an mosalodneli gayidvis) saqonlis

(saqonelbrunvis) moculoba (xvedriTi wona).

magaliTi . momxmarebelTa ricxvma Seadgina 550 aTasi kaci. sabaziso

periodSi X saqonelis moxmarebis done erT sul mosaxleze Seadgenda 25

erTeuls kacze. elastikurobis koeficientma uCvena, rom fasebis donis 1%



123

zrdisas moTxovna X saqonelze 0,2% mcirdeba (E = _ 0,8). prognozuli SefasebiT

mosalodnelia fasebis 10% zrda. maSin moxmarebis saSualo done erT sul

mosaxleze Seadgens:

Q=2,5 _ (25 X(1_0,8) X10=20 erT/kac.

bazris sabaziso tevadoba toli iyo: 550 X20=1100 erT/kac. Tumca wlis

dasawyisiTvis mosaxleobas gaaCnda X saqonelis 600 aTasi erTeuli, eqspertuli

SefasebebiT 120 aTasi erTeuli uvargisi gaxdeba momsaxurebis vadis gasvlis gamo,

xolo moraluri daberebis mizeziT 80 aTasi erTeuli Seicvleba

modernizirebuli X saqoneliT.. garda amisa mosaxleoba X saqonelis 100 aTas

erTeuls Cveulebriv Sav bazarze iZens. am cifrebze SesworebiT bazris tevadoba

Seadgens:

E=1100 – (600-120-80)-100=200

wina wlebis monacemebiT bazris 2/3 ekuTvnis konkurentebs, maSasadame,mocemuli firmisaTvis X saqonelis bazris tevadoba Seadgens 200 aTas erTeuls.

savaWro saqmianobis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi maCveneblia sasaqonlo

maragi.

sasaqonlo maragi firmaSi garkveuli periodis manZilze uZrav

mdgomareobaSia da misi arseboba ganpirobebulia obieqturi aucileblobiT.

sasaqonlo maragi warmoadgens firmaSi mocemuli momentisaTvis arsebuli

saqonlis im masas, romelic jer kidev ar aris gayiduli da elodeba gayidvis

periodis dadgomas.

ganasxvaveben sasaqonlo maragis or maCvenebels: sasaqonlo maragis

absoluturi moculoba da sasaqonlo maragis donis SefardebiTi maCvenebeli.

sasaqonlo maragis absoluturi moculoba gviCvenebs, nebismieri mocemuli

momentisaTvis Tu ra moculobis maragi unda iyos firmaSi, rom man Seuferxeblad

imuSavos.

sasaqonlo maragis donis SefardebiTi maCveneblis gaangariSebis or

variants ganasxvaveben: maragtevadoba da saqonlbrunvis uzrunvelyofadoba

sasaqonlo maragiT.

maragtevadobis maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba rogorc maragebis procentuliSefardeba saqonelbrunvasTan (maragi yovel aTas lar saqonelbrunvaze).

saqonlbrunvis uzrunvelyofadoba sasaqonlo maragiT gaiangariSeba

periodis (wlis, kvartlis da a.S.) bolosTvis arsebuli sasaqonlo maragis

moculobis SefardebiT mocemuli periodis saSualo erTdRiuri saqonelbrunvis

moculobasTan. is gviCvenebs sasaqonlo maragiT uzrunvelyofili dReebis

raodenobas.



124

sasaqonlo maragis moculobis sidide dakavSirebulia saqonelbrunvis

moculobasTan, da sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, rac ufro didia saqonelbrunva, miT

ufro metia saqonelbrunvis uwyvetobis uzrulvelmyofi sasaqonlo maragi.

maragtevadobisa da uzrunvelyofadobis maCveneblebi saSualebas iZleva

gamoiricxos saqonelbrunvis zomis faqtoris gavlena saqonelbrunvis dinamikisanalizisas an sxvadasxva firmebis am maCvenebliT Sedarebis dros.

magaliTi: saqonelbrunvam Tvis ganmavlobaSi Seadgina 5 mln lari,

sasaqonlo maragi Tvis bolos udrida 2 mln lars. maragtevadoba am

SemTxvevisaTvis udris 0,4 mln lars (2:5=0,4). uzrunvelyofadobis

gaangariSebisaTvis aucilebelia ganisazRvros saqonelbrunvis saSualo

moculoba erT dReSi, romelic 5:30=0,16 mln laris tolia. amrigad,

saqonelbrunvis uzrunvelyofadoba sasaqonlo maragiT udris 13 dRes (2:0,16=13).

sasaqonlo maragiT uzrunvelyofadoba warmoadgens ZiriTad saanalizo

maCvenebels sasaqonlo maragis Sefasebisas da gviCvenebs Tu ramden dRes eyofa

mocemuli sasaqonlo maragi firmas arsebuli saqonelbrunvis moculobis

pirobebSi, raTa Seuferxeblad imuSaos man.

sasaqonlo maragiT uzrunvelyofadobis saerTo maCvenebelis

gaangariSebasTan erTad aucilebelia aRniSnuli maCvenebeli ganisazRvros

saqonlis calkeuli saxeobisa da saqonlis jgufis anu sasaqonlo struqturis

mixedviT .

rogorc cnobilia, sasaqonlo maragis aRricxva xdeba drois romelime

momentisaTvis. amitom drois gansazRvrul periodSi maragis donis

dasaxasiaTeblad gaiangariSeba saSualo sasaqonlo maragi saSualo

qronologiuris formuliT:

,1

...2/1 11

n

Z Z Z Z n

l

sadac i Z aris sasaqolo maragi i -uri TariRisTvis;

n _ sasaqonlo maragis daregistrirebis TariRis ricxvi.

mocemul periodSi sasaqonlo maragis donis Sesafaseblad gaiangariSeben

sasaqonlo maragis saSualo maCvenebls mocemuli periodis mixedviT da

gamoiyeneben saSualo sididis (ZiriTadad saSualo ariTmetikuli) gaangariSebis

Sesabamis xerxs. kerZod, kvartalSi an ufro xangrZlivi periodisaTvis saSualo



125

sasaqonlo maragi SeiZleba ganisazRvros rogorc saSualoTviuri maCveneblebis

saSualo sidide.

magaliTi: sasaqonlo maragi firmaSi 1 ianvrisaTvis udrida 5 mln lars, 1

TebervlisaTvis _ 6 mln lars, 1 martisaTvis _ 7 mln lars da 1 aprilisaTvis _

6 mln lars. jer gaiangariSeba maragis saSualo Tviuri moculoba. is

ianvrisaTvis udris (5+6):2=5,5 mln lars; TebervlisaTvis _ (6+7):2=6,5 mln lars;

martisaTvis _ (7+6):2=6,5 mln lars. Semdeg gaiangariSeba maragis saSualo

moculoba pirvel kvartalSi, romelic udris (5,5+6,5+6,5):3=18,5:3=6,2 mln lars.

savaWro firmis efeqtianobis yvelaze mniSvnelovan maCvenebels

saqonelbrunvadoba warmoadgens .

savaWro sawarmoSi, marTalia, ganuwyvetliv xdeba saqonlis wrebrunva,magram es procesi xorcieldeba ise, rom komerciul (savaWro) firmaSi mudmivadaa

SenarCunebuli saqonlis gansazRvruli gardamavali maragi , romlis moculobac

SeiZleba meryeobdes sxvadasxva faqtorebis zemoqmedebis gamo. swored am process

ewodeba saqonelbrunvadoba, romlis Sefasebac SeiZleba moxdes ori ZiriTadi

maCveneblis mixedviT.

pirveli maCveneblia saqonelbrunvadobis siCqare , romelic gviCvenebs, Tu

mocemul periodSi ramdenjer xdeba sasaqonlo resursebis ganaxleba, anu ramdeni

brunvaa Sesrulebuli am periodis manZilze.

is gaiangariSeba gansazRvrul periodSi wminda saqonelbrunvis moculobisSefardebiT amave periodSi saSualo sasaqonlo maragis moculobasTan:

saSZ

QW

,

sadac W aris saqonelbrunvadobis siCqare, anu brunvaTa ricxvi mocemuli

drois monakveTSi;

Q _ saqonelbrunvis moculoba (lari);

Z _ sasaqonlo maragis saSualo moculoba mocemul periodSi (lari).

saqonelbrunvis meore maCvenebelia erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba dReebSi, anu

dReebis is raodenoba, romelic saWiroa (daixarja) erT brunvis gakeTebaze.



126

is gaiangariSeba mocemul periodSi saqonelbrunvis moculobis gayofiT

saqonelbrunvis siCqareze, anu brunvaTa ricxvze:

,W

QV

sadac V aris erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba dReebSi (mocemul periodSi);

Q _ saqonelbrunvis moculoba mocemul periodSi (lari);

W _ brunvaTa ricxvi mocemul periodSi.

sxvanairad, meore maCvenebels ewodeba sasaqonlo mimoqcevis dro, anu

saqonelis mimoqcevis dro (V). is aRniSnavs dReTa im raodenobas, romlis

ganmavlobaSic saqoneli imyofeba sasaqonlo mimqocevis sferoSi da gaiangariSeba

mocemuli periodis sasaqonlo maragis saSualo moculobis SefardebiT amave

periodis erTdRiuri saqonelbrunvis moculobasTan:

tQ

z

q

zV

.

magaliTi: Tu kvartalSi, romelic 90 dRes moicavs, saqonelbrunvis

moculobam 27 mln lari Seadgina da saSualo sasaqonlo maragi kvartalSi

udris 5 mln lars, maSin saqonelbrunvis moculoba erT dReSi toli iqneba 0,3

mln laris (27:90+0,3), brunvis siCqare udris 5,4 brunvas (27:5+5,4), xolo erTi

brunvis xangrZlivoba _ 5 dRes (27:5,4=5).

sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis analizis meTodebi

sabazro urTierTobis pirobebSi nebismieri firmis mTliani sameurneo

saqmianoba sakontraqto (saxelSekrulebo) urTierTobebs efuZneba.

saxelmwifo dainteresebuli unda iyos sakontraqto valdebulebaTa

upirobo da maRali doniT SesrulebaSi, rac Sesabamisi sakanonmdeblo sistemis

arsebobiT unda ganmtkicdes.

sakontraqto pirobebis srulyofilad Sesruleba TviT firmisaTvisaa

sasargeblo, radgan es misi imijis amaRlebas da maSasadame, misi saqmianobisgafarToebas, ganviTarebasa da efeqtianobas uwyobs xels. yovelive amis gamo,

firmis sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sefaseba da analizi metad aqtualuri

amocanaa.

komerciuli saqmianobis (savaWro) firmaSi kontraqti (xelSekruleba)

iuridiuli dokumentia, romelic gansazRvravs saqonlis yidva-gayidvis



127

urTierTobaSi Cabmuli mxareebis ufleba-movaleobebs. is gulisxmobs mxareebis

mier kontraqtSi gaTvaliswinebuli pirobebis aucilebel dacvasa da Sesrulebas.

ganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli

pirobebis damrRvevi mxareebi isjebian ara marto peniebis, jarimebisa da sxva

sanqciaTa sistemiT, aramed TviT bazridan gaZevebiT. yovelive aRniSnulTan erTadkontraqtis mniSvnelobas isic zrdis, rom is SeiZleba ganxilul iqnes rogorc

statistikuri informaciis SesaniSnavi wyaro, radgan masSi aRinusxeba gasayidad

gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis raodenoba (moculoba) da asortimenti, saqonlis

xarisxis maCveneblebi, fasi da saqonlis partiis mTliani Rirebuleba. amasTan

erTad, kontraqtSi ganisazRvra saqonlis miwodebis pirobebi da vadebi.

aRniSnuli informaciuli masala saSualebas iZleva miwodebis faqtobrivi

Sedegebi Seudardes kontraqtiT (xelSekrulebiT) gaTvaliswinebuls da gakeTdes

Sesabamisi daskvnebi sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis Sesaxeb.

sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis analizi iwyeba miwodebismoculobis mixedviT kontraqtis Sesrulebis SefasebiT. meorenairad, mas

kontraqtis Sesrulebis koeficientsac uwodeben. is gaiangariSeba formuliT:

k

f

q

qC

,

sadac C aris sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis done (koeficienti);

qf _ miwodebuli saqonlis faqtobrivi raodenoba;

qk _ kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis raodenoba.

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulTan SedarebiT, saqonlis faqtobrivi

miwodebis gadaxris absoluturi zoma ganisazRvreba rogorc sxvaoba faqtiur da

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebul miwodebebs Soris:

.qqC kf

aRniSnuli formulebi gamoiyeneba im SemTxvevaSi, Tu saqoneli aRiricxeba

naturalur maCveneblebSi.

magram Tu kontraqtSi saqonlis miwodeba mocemuli da gaangariSebulia

RirebulebiT erTeulebSi, maSin aucilebelia mkacrad iqnes daculi fasebis

Sesadarisobis principi . am SemTxvevaSi gaiangariSeba kontraqtis Sesrulebis

indeqsi Rirebulebis mixedviT(C ) da absoluturi gadaxra( c )



128

,q p

q pC

kk

fk

sadac k p aris kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis sabiTumo fasi.

.kkfk q pq pc

gaangariSebis aRniSnuli meTodi ZiriTadad gamoiyeneba maSin, rodesac

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulia sxvadasxva saxeobis da gansxvavebuli fasis mqone

saqonlis miwodeba.

aRsaniSnavia, rom komerciul saqmianobaSi xSirad gaiTvaliswineba saqonlis

Semdgomi gayidva ufro maRali fasiT. amitom arasruli miwodebis SemTxvevaSi

firma izaralebs, armiRebuli sargeblis odenobiT.

armiRebuli sargebeli gaiangariSeba rogorc sxvaoba sacalo fasebSifaqtobrivad miwodebuli saqonlis Rirebulebasa da kontraqtiT

gaTvaliswinebuli sabiTumo fasebiT gansazRvruli saqonlis Rirebulebas Soris:

,q pq pC ksabfsaczar

sadac sacP aris faqtobrivi sacalo fasi;

sabP _ sabiTumo fasi.

savaWro organizaciebs (firmebs) Soris dadebul kontraqtebSi

gaTvaliswinebulia miwodebis asortimenti , romlis dacva aucilebelia.

winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, e.i. Tu asortimentis mixedviT ar iqneba saqoneli

miwodebuli, maSin saqonlis mimRebi firma seriozuli problemebis winaSe

aRmoCndeba, radgan erTi saxeobis saqoneli iqneba naklebi, meore ki _ zedmeti.

amitom didi mniSvneloba eniWeba kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli asortimentis

mixedviT saqonlis miwodebis valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis Sefasebasa da analizs.

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli da faqtobrivad miwodebuli asortimentebs

Soris gansxvavebis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba asortimentul poziciaTa wrfivigadaxris koeficienti .

is gaiangariSeba formuliT:

,1 1

kfas.gad. j

m

j

m

j

j j qqqC



129

sadac jq aris faqtobrivad miwodebuli j-uri saxeobis asortimentis

saqonlis raodenobis gadaxra kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulisagan;

m _ j-ri asortimentis saxeobis ricxvi.

asortimentis mixedviT sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis Sefaseba

SesaZlebelia qvemoT motanili formuliT, sadac yvela gadaxra, niSnebis (+, _)

miuxedavad, miekuTvneba kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebul miwodebis saerTo

moculobas:

,

m

j

j

m

j

j

q

q

C

k

asor.

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulTan SedarebiT faqtobrivad miwodebuli

saqonlis moculobis gadaWarbebam, gansakuTrebiT SezRuduli moTxovnis

saasortimento jgufebis xarjze, SeiZleba Seqmnas araxelsayreli situacia,

rodesac firma ver SeZlebs zedmeti saqonlis gayidvas da warmoiqmneba

zenormatiuli maragi, rac damatebiT xarjebTanaa dakavSirebuli.

amrigad, mimwodeblis mier SeTanxmebuli miwodebis saasortimento

struqturis darRveva, im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tu ar iqneba darRveuli saqonlis

mTliani raodenobiT (moculobiT) miwodebis valdebuleba, zaraliT emuqreba

saqonlis mimReb firmas.

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulisagan miwodebis saasortimento struqturis

gadaxris gavlenis Sesaxeb damatebiTi informacia miiReba saasortimento

gadaxrebis indeqsebis meSveobiT :

,

1

,

,

m

j

jk j

m

j

jf jk

q p

q p

C

k

asor.

sadac jq

,k

da

,

j

q f

j-uri saasortimento saxeobis wilia saqonlis saerTo

miwodebaSi Sesabamisad kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli da faqtiurad

miwodebuli;

,

j p k - j-uri saasortimento saxeobis saqonlis sakontraqto fasi;



130

j - saqonlis saasortimento saxeobis raodenoba.

namravli , pq aRiqmeba, rogorc miwodebis Rirebuleba saqonlis raodenobis

yovel 100 erTeulze gaangariSebiT. amitom saasortimento gadaxrebis xarjze

miwodebis Rirebulebis absoluturi mateba gaiangariSeba ricxv 100-ze

Sesworebis gaTvaliswinebiT Semdegi formuliT:

100*

,

1 1

,,

m

j

jf m

j

m

j

jf jk jf jk asort

q

q pq p .

magaliTi . gaviangariSoT sakontraqto valdebulebebidan saqonlis

miwodebis gadaxris maCveneblebi pirobiTi monacemebis safuZvelze (ix, cxrili

2.1).

cxrilSi motanili monacemebidan Cans, rom kontraqtTan SedarebiTmiwodebul iqna 20 aTasi erTeuliT naklebi (200 _ 180 = 20), an 10%. miuxedavad

amisa, RirebulebiTi gamosaxulebiT kontraqtTan SedarebiT miwodebis nakleboba

ar yofila, ramdenadac kontraqti dairRva asortimentis mixedviT da iafi saxis

saqonlis dakleba anazRaurda ufro Zviri saqonlis zedmeti miwodebiT. amis

Sedegad saSualod erT saqonelze gadaxdil iqna 11,1%-iT meti.

sakontraqto valdebulebebidan saqonlis miwodebis gadaxris maCvenebelTa

gaangariSeba

cxrili 2.1

s a q o n l i s

s a a s o r t i m

e n t o

s a x

b i

fasi

(lari)

raodenoba

(aTasi cali)

Rirebuleba

(aTasi lari)

k o n t r a q t i s s a b i T u m o

r e a l i z a c i i s ( g a y i d v i s )

s a

a

o

k o n t r a q t i T

f a q t o b r i v a d

a b s o l u t u r i g a d a x r a

k o n t r a q t i T

faqtobriv

i fasebiT

s a k o n t r a q t o

s a c a l o

a 1 2 3 4 5 6

(gr.1

X

gr.3)

7

(gr.1

X

gr.4

)

8

(gr.2

X

gr.4)



131

1 2 3 50 30 20 100 60 90

2 3 5 100 80 20 300 240 400

3 5 9 50 70 20 250 350 630

_ _ 200 180 60 650 650 1120

es mtkicdeba miwodebis mixedviT saSualo fasebis gaangariSebiT Semdegi

formuliT:

,q

pq P

250,3200

650k p aTasi lari; 611,3

180

650f p aTasi lari.

saasortimento Seusabamobis donem raodenobis mixedviT Seadgina 33% (60/180),

amitom Rirebulebis mixedviT gadaxra unda gaiTvalos sxvagvarad: pirveli dameore poziciis mixedviT faqtiur doneze, xolo mesame pozicia _ kontraqtis

doneze. Ee.i. SeuTanxmebelis da maSasadame firma –klientisaTvis ara saWiro

gadaWarbebisa:

KkSeuT= (60+240+250)-650= _100 mln lari.

armiRebuli sargebeli gaiangariSeba imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom firma-

klientma ver SeZlo kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulis zemoT miRebuli mesame

saasortimento saxeobis 20 aTasi erTeulis realizacia (ufro Zviris da amitomnaklebi moTxovnis mqonesi).

garda amisa Seiqmna zenormatiuli maragi, romelTa Senaxvam moiTxova

damatebiT 5,0 aTasi lari. pirveli da meore saasortimento saxeobis kontraqtiT

gaTvaliswinebulze naklebi miwodebis gamo firma-klientma ver miiRo 60 mln

laris Semosavali (sacalo fasebSi). arapirdapiri zarali gaangariSda

Semdenairad:



132

ap.z.=20x (3-2)+20x(5-3)=60

amdagvarad, zenormatiuli maragis xarjebis gaTvaliswinebiT, asortimentis

mixedviT kontraqtis pirobebis darRvevis gamo zaralma Seadgina 60 mln lari.

imisaTvis rom avagoT saasortimento gadaxrebis indeqsi da gaviangariSoT

am faqtoris xarjze miwodebis Rirebulebis gadaxra kontraqtis pirobidan

saWiroa cxrilis ageba sadac aisaxeba monacemebi _ saqonlis miwodeba

procentebSi jamTan. (ix, cx.2.2)

gaviangariSoT saSualo fasebis indeqsi:

Iasort.=361,1/325,0=1,111 Nan 111,1%.

G D e.i. sakontraqto Rirebulebidan SefardebiTi gadaxra 11,1% ganapiroba

saasortimento Seusatyvisobam. saSualo fasebis gaangariSebis Sedegi emTxveva

saasortimento indeqss, ramdenadac kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli

saasortimento gadaxraTa indeqsis maCvenebeli

cxrili 2.2

saasorti-

mento

saxeobebi

momaragebis saasortimen-

to struqtura %-iT

jamTan

kontraqtiT

gaTvaliswinebuli

fasebi

(lari)

miwodebis Rirebuleba

100 erT-ze gaangariSebiT

(lari)

kontraqtiT faqtobrivad kontraqtiT faqtobrivad

a 1 2 3 4

(gr.1Xgr.3)

5

(gr.2Xgr.3)

1 25 18,5 4 100 74,0

2 46 37,0 6 276 222,0

3 29 44,5 7 203 311,5

100 100,0 _ 579 607,5



133

sabiTumo fasebi ar Secvlila. saqontraqtodan miwodebis Rirebulebis

absoluturi gadaxra xdeboda imis xarjze, rom faqtiuri saasortimento

struqtura ar emTxveoda saqontraqtos. is gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad:

(asort)=(361,1-325,0)x180/100=64,98 an 65 mln lars.

amas unda daematos miwodebis raodenobis Semcirebis gavlena:

(Iq)=650x(180/200-1)=-60 mln lars. KON

M am matebebis jami (65+(-65) xsnis, Tu ratom daemTxva kotraqtiT miwodebis

Rirebuleba faqtiurs naturalur gamosaxulebaSi miwodebis moculobis

Semcirebisa da daSvebuli saasortimento Seusatyvisobis pirobebSi.

daskvna: mimwodebelma arakeTilsindisierad Seasrula kontraqtis pirobebi

da klient firmas miayena mniSvnelovani finansuri zarali. rac fasdeba 65 mlnlaris miuRebeli sargebeliT.

sakontraqto disciplinis ganmtkicebaSi gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis miwodebis vadebis dacvas.

kontraqtSi SeiZleba dafiqsirebuli iqnes saqonlis miwodeba Tanabari

partiebiT drois Tanabar SualedebSi.

araTanabari miwodeba uaryofiTad aisaxeba klienti firmis ekonomikur

maCveneblebze: xdeba transportis araTanabari datvirTva; adgili aqvs

gamyidvelebis muSaobis araTanabr datvirTvas; drois raRac monakveTSi sawyobebinawilobriv carielia, xolo Semdeg ver iteven miwodebul saqonels, romelic

aRemateba kontraqtiT gaTvaniswinebuls, rac Tavis mxriv ganapirobebs damatebiT

xarjebs.

arasruli miwodebis pirobebSi arasrulia moTxovnis dakmayofilebac,

ramac SeiZleba gamoiwvios myidvelTa nawilis gadasvla konkurentTan, xolo

zedmeti miwodebis Sedegad iqmneba rigebi, ver xerxdeba saqonlis droulad da

srulad realizacia ramdenadac maRaziis gamtarunarianoba SezRudulia. am

pirobebSi meryeobs fuladi amonagebi, iqmneba araxelsayreli finansuri situacia,

SeiZleba dairRves gadasaxadebis gadaxdis vadebi da sxv.

maSasadame, araTanabari miwodeba iwvewvs klienti firmis pirdapir da

arapirdapir zarals. mas aqvs ufleba moTxovos am zaralis kompensacia

mimwodebel firmas.

miwodebis Tanabrobis donis Sefaseba statistikis umniSvnelovanesi

amocanaa. mis safuZvelze vlindeba saqonelbrunvadobis siCqaris Samcirebis da

klienti firmis mimoqcevis xarjebis zrdis mizezebi, miiReba gadawyvetilebebi ama



134

Tu im mimwodebelTan sasaqonlo kavSirebis SeCerebis an saerTod gawyvetis

Sesaxeb.

miwodebis Tanabrobis donis Sefaseba keTdeba martivi meTodiT: aigeba

miwodebis grafiki, sadac normaluri (kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli) done

aRiniSneba swori wiTeli xaziT. misgan gadaxris mixedviT msjeloben kontraqtispirobebis darRvevasa da meryeobis intensivobaze.

im SemTxvevaSi roca mimwodebeli bevria, an aucilebelia meryeobis

intensivobis Sesaxeb obieqturi raodenobrivi monacemebi, iyeneben variaciis

koeficientis gaangariSebis meTods . misi gaangariSebis formula aseTia:

,100

c

v

sadac aris saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra miwodebis saSualo donidan,

romelic, Tavis mxriv, gaangariSdeba formuliT:

, N

)( 2

i

sadac i aris miwodeba i –ur periodSi;

_ miwodebis saSualo done, romelic gaangariSebulia formuliT:

, N

N _ periodebis ricxvi

variaciis koeficienti SeiZleba icvlebodes 0-dan 100-mde, rac ufro metia

is, miT ufro araTanabaria saqonlis miwodeba.

saqonlis Tanazomieri miwodebis garda, kontraqtiT SeiZleba saqonlis

sicocxlis cikluri da sezonuri xasiaTiT gamowveuli cikluri miwodebis

gaTvaliswineba. kerZod, wlis sxvadasxva sezonsa da saqonlis sxvadasxvasasicocxlo ciklSi sxvadasxvanairia moTxovna saqonlis miwodebis raodenobaze

(moculobaze), rac Sesabamisad aisaxeba kontraqtSi.

am SemTxvevaSi SesaZlebelia gaangariSebis ori xerxis gamoyeneba:



135

1. saqonlis miwodebis ritmulobis koeficientis gaangariSeba roca kontraqtSi

miTiTebulia calkeuli periodisaTvis miwodebis moculoba. is gaiangariSeba

formuliT:

,1C i

i

k

f

rit

sadac fi aris saqonlis faqtobrivi miwodeba drois i-ur monakveTSi;

ki _ kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis miwodeba drois i-ur

monakveTSi.

rac ufro axlosaa saqonlis miwodebis ritmulobis koeficienti nulTan,

miT ufro ritmulia miwodeba da piriqiT, rac ufro didia is, miT ufro aritmu-

lia miwodeba.

2. mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi faqtiuri miwodebis trendidan

(miwodebis ciklurobis an sxva mudmivi cvlilebebis amsaxveli ZiriTadi

tendenciisa) gadaxris Sefaseba . is arsebiTad emTxveva aproqsimaciis

koeficientis:

,100

k

t

iC

sadac ki aris faqtobrivi miwodebis saSualokvadratuli gadaxra

trendidan i-uri drois monakveTSi;

_ miwodebis mosworebuli mniSvneloba drois Sesabamis monakveTSi

(trendi), anu f (t), sadac t aris drois Sualedis nomeri.

gaTanabrebisaTvis gamoiyeneba erT-erTi droiTi funqcia (trenduli

modelebis), romelic asaxavs saqonlis miwodebis tendencias.

magaliTi. X saqonelze moTxovnis sezonurobis pirobebSi kontraqtSi

dafiqsirebuli iyo wlis I kvartalSi miwodebis moculobis zrda, II kvartalSi

piriqiT yovelTviuri Semcireba. magram dairRva kontraqtis pirobebi da saqonlis

miwodeba ganxorcielda Tanabari partiebiT. (ix. cxr. 2.3).



136

kontraqtis pirobebis darRvevam ganapiroba miwodebis aritmuloba.

aritmulobis koeficientma Seadgina 2,583, rac metyvelebs kontraqtis

pirobebidan arsebiT gadaxraze.

kontraqtSi saWiroa mocemuli iyos saqonlis dawvrilebiTi specifikacia,

misi parametrebisa da Tvisebebis aRwera da saqonlis xarisxis saerTodaxasiaTeba.

rogorc cnobilia, produqciis (saqonlis) xarisxSi igulisxmeba TvisebaTa

erToblioba, romelsac SeuZlia daakmayofilos momxmarebeli.

saqonlis xarisxis Seswavlisas (gansazRvrisas) farTod gamoiyeneba Sefasebis

statistikuri meTodebi.

momxmareblisTvis mocemuli saqonlis mimzidvelobas, yidvaze

gadawyvetilebis miRebas da, maSasadame, saqonlis mwarmoeblis komerciul

warmatebas mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs saqonlis xarisxi da misi

konkurentunarianobis done (Tavis mxriv, konkurentunarianobis donis

ganmsazRvrel erT-erT umniSvnelovanes parametrs saqonlis xarisxi warmoadgens).

cxrili 2.3

saqonlis miwodebis ritmulobis Sefaseba

Tveebi

faqtobrivi

miwodebis

sakontraqtosTan

Sefardebis

koeficienti

k

f

q

q

koeficientis

absoluturi

gadaxra

erTeulisagan

k

f

q

q1

kontraqtiT faqtobrivad

1 2 3 4 5

1 200 150 0,750 0,250

2 300 200 0,667 0,333

3 400 250 0,750 0,250

4 300 600 2,000 1,000

5 200 250 1,250 0,250

6 100 50 0,500 0,500



137

sul 1500 1500 2.583

produqciis xarisxi ganisazRvreba mravali maCvenebliT (maCvenebelTasistemiT) da sxvadasxva produqciis (saqonlis) xarisxis gansazRvrisaTvis xSirad

sxvadasxva maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba.

maRalxarisxovania is saqoneli, romelic damzadebulia Tanamedrove

moTxovnis teqnikuri standartebis doneze, saimedoa eqsploataciis procesSi

(moulodnelad ar gamova mwyobridan, ar daazianebs momxmarebels da a.S.),

daculia misi gamoyenebis winaswargansazRvruli vadebi, Seesabameba Tanamedrove

esTetikur da ergonomikur moTxovnebs, agreTve modas da akmayofilebs

momxmarebelTa individualur moTxovnebs.

saqonlis xarisxis gansazRvris erT-erT meTods baluri Sefasebis meTodi

warmoadgens. am meTodis Tanaxmad, dgeba saqonlis ZiriTadi parametrebis

(Tvisebebis, niSnebis) CamonaTvali, romelic iyofa mkacr (teqnologiur) da rbil

(dizaini, ergonomika, moda) parametrebad. TiToeul parametrs mieniWeba bali

(makacr parametrebs _ standartidan, normodan gadaxris donis mixedviT), xolo

rbil parametrebs _ eqspertuli Sefasebebis mixedviT). erTdroulad TiToeuli

parametrisaTvis dgindeba rangi an wona.

xarisxis zogadi, integraluri maCvenebeli ganisazRvreba, rogorc saSualo

ariTmetikuli sidide, parametrebis balebidan, romelic Sewonilia parametrebis

rangebis mixedviT. am mizniT SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes formula:

,

W

WR

R n

i

i

n

i

ii

sadac R aris i-uri parametris bali (qula), romelic axasiaTebs saqonlis

Sesabamisobas teqnologiur da samomxmareblo moTxovnebTan:

Wi_ i-uri parametris wona (rangi);

n _ i-uri parametrebis ricxvi.

saxelSekrulebo pirobebis analizSi xarisxis balur SefasebebTan erTad

gamoiyeneba xarisxianobis (sortulobis) indeqsi . es indeqsi iZleva saSualebas



138

dadgindes Tu ra zomiT Seesabameba miwodebis struqtura sortulobis niSnis

mixedviT kontraqtis pirobebs.

ganasxvaveben sortulobis indeqsis agebis or variants:

saSualo fasebis mixedviT (sadac xarisxis gamzomad gamodis fasi). am

meTodis arsi mdgomareobs imaSi, rom xdeba miwodebis xelSekrulebis

pirobebSi gaTvaliswinebuli sortuli struqturis mixedviT formirebuli

saqonlis saxelSekrulebo Rirebulebis Sedareba faqtiuri struqturis

RirebulebasTan. mocemuli meTodi moxerxebulia, ramdenadac is armoiTxovs

eqspertul balur Sefasebebs da miwodebis gadaangariSebebs.

xarisxisa da Sesatyvisi sortis uSualo baluri Sefasebebis mixedviT. am

variantSi saSualo fasebis nacvlad xdeba saSualo balis gaangariSeba

xelSkrulebiT gaTvaliswinebuli sortulobis struqturis mixedviT. misiupiratesoba vlindeba iseT pirobebSi rodesac sabazro situacia (ufro

xSirad gamyidvelis bazarze) amaxinjebs fasebis proporciebs, xdis maT

arastabilurs, ar asaxavs sxvadasxva xarisxis samomxmareblo Rirebulebas.

bazris dinamikisa da meryeobis maCveneblebTan mWidrodaa

dakavSirebuli riskis maCveneblebi. cxadia, rom bazris ganviTarebis

xasiaTi, veqtori, siCqare, misi mdgradobis done da Camoyalibebuli

proporciebi mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs biznesmenis (komersantis) risks.

riskis cnebaSi igulisxmeba komerciuli warumateblobis miRebis

(gancdis) albaToba.

bazarze ganasxvaveben riskis sxvadasxva saxeobas, romlebic

SeiZleba dakavSirebuli iyos gakotrebis saSiSroebasTan, investiciebis

mTlian an nawilobriv dakargvasTan, dagegmili mogebis miuReblobasTan,

bazridan gamoZevebasTan an SeviwroebasTan.



139

zemoT motanil maCvenebelTa CamonaTvalSi erT-erT umniSvnelovanes

qvebloks warmoadgens saqmiani aqtiuroba, romlis maCveneblebic

TvalsaCinod gamoxatavs bazarze Seqmnil mdgomareobas.

farTo gagebiT, saqmiani aqtiurobis gansazRvrisaTvis gamoiyeneba

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistemis meore

blokisa (fasebis mdgomareoba da maTi cvlilebis maCvenebeli) da mesame

blokis (saqonelmoZraoba, romelic aerTianebs qveblokebs _

saqonelbrunva, sasaqonlo maragi da saqonelbrunvadoba) maCveneblebi,

agreTve saqonlisa da momsaxureobis, fasiani qaRaldebis, investiciebis,

Sromis bazrebis da ekonomikis zogierTi sxva maCveneblebi.

saqmiani aqtiurobis aRniSnul maCvenebelTa indeqsebi gamoiyeneba

mTlianad sabazro ekonomikis analizisaTvis. isini agreTve Sedian bazris

iseT rTul saprognozo modelSi, romelic ekonomikuri barometris

saxelwodebiTaa cnobili.

ufro viwro gagebiT ki, saqmiani aqtiuroba Seicavs SekveTebis

`portfels~, anu gayidvis an Sesyidvis Taobaze dadebuli kontraqtebis

raodenobasa da moculobas. saqmiani aqtiurobis maCvenebels miekuTvneba

ganxorcielebuli kontraqtebis (garigebebis) maxasiaTeblebi, rogoricaa:

maTi raodenoba da moculoba, dinamika da sixSire. SekveTebis maCveneblebi

utoldeba firmebis potencialur SesaZleblobebs (sawarmoo an savaWro

simZlavres) da amis safuZvelze ganisazRvreba mocemul periodSi

simZlavreTa datvirTvis done, agreTve gamoiyeneba TiToeuli SekveTisa da

SekveTebis mTliani erTobliobis sargeblianoba (momgebianoba), rac iZleva

mogebis dagegmvis (prognozirebis) saSualebas.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikis umniSnelovanesi maCvenebelia

monopolizaciisa da konkurenciis donis Sefaseba. mas miekuTvneba firmebisraodenoba da zoma (sidide), maT mier bazarze dakavebuli xvedriTi wona,

am niSnebis mixedviT maTi ganawileba. es saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros

bazris tipi, aigos bazris tipologiis Sesabamisi matrica, mieces

Sesabamisi daxasiaTeba bazris dayofis (segmentaciis) process.



140

sasaqonlo bazris koniunqturis arapirdapir daxasiaTebad unda

CaiTvalos situacia, romelic Seqmnilia fasiani qaRaldebis bazarze .

aqciebze moTxovnis moculoba da misi kursi mniSvnelovnadaa

damokidebuli bazarze firmis (firmebis) mdgomareobasTan. amitom aqciebis

sabirJo indeqsebi SeiZleba ganxilul iqnes rogorc sabazro koniunqturis

damoukidebeli indikatorebi.

sabazro situaciis koniunqturuli Sefasebebi

bazris koniunqturis analizis gansaxorcieleblad, marTalia,

gamoiyeneba specifikuri meTodebi, romlebic ZiriTadad eyrdnoba sabazro

situaciis xarisxobriv da atributul maCveneblebs, magram praqtikulad

yvela maTgani saeqsporto meTodis kategorias miekuTvneba.

yvelaze ufro xSirad gamoiyeneba koniunqturuli mimoxilvebi ,

sadac mimomxilvelis gamocdilebisa da dakvirvebis safuZvelze keTdeba

situaciis logikuri aRwera, faqtebis konstatacia da sxvadasxva

specialistebis mier gamoTqmul SexedulebaTa damowmeba. bolos

formulirdeba daskvnebi, romelSic gamoiyeneba situaciis atributuli

Sefasebebi: xelsayreli (maRali) koniunqtura. aseTi daskvnis gakeTebis

niSnebia: gawonasworebuli (dabalansebuli) bazari, stabiluri an aRmavali

gayidvis moculoba, gawonasworebuli fasebi da a.S. an piriqiT,

araxelsayreli (dabali) koniunqtura, romlis niSnebia: bazris

disproporciebi, moTxovnis ararseboba an moTxovnis arasasurveli

cvlileba, fasebis mkveTri meryeoba, gasaRebis krizisi, saqonlis

deficiti, maragis gaumarTlebeli zrda da a.S. amasTan, xarisxobrivi

Sefasebebi Cveulebriv keTdeba rogorc eqspertuli modelirebis, ise

cifrobrivi masalebis vizualuri Sefasebebis meSveobiT. amitom

xarisxobrivi da atributuli Sefasebebi kargad uTavsdeba statistikissagans.

sabazros koniunqturis gasazomad da Sesafaseblad gamoiyeneba e. w.

koniunqturuli indikatorebi . sabazro koniunqturis statistikaSi aseTi

indikatorebia fasebi, sasaqonlo maragi, saqmiani aqtiurobis maCveneblebi,



141

agreTve specifikuri xarisxobrivi da atributuli koniunqturuli

Sefasebebi, romlebic efuZneba specialistebis gamocdilebasa da

mosazrebebs.

koniunqturis indikatorebi analizis miznebidan da bazris

ganviTarebis Taviseburebebidan gamomdinare, SeiZleba iyos rogorc

absoluturi, ise SefardebiTi sidideebi.

bazari SeiZleba Sefasdes saqmiani aqtiurobis indeqsebiT , magram

gasaTvaliswinebelia calkeuli maTganis Taviseburebebi. magaliTad,

garigebaTa ricxvis mateba gayidvis moculobis zrdis gareSe ar SeiZleba

CaiTvalos bazris gamococxlebis maCveneblad da miuTiTebs sabazro

procesSi iseTi firmebis Cabmaze, romlebic dakavebulni arian mcire

operaciebiT (garigebebiT). maragis zrda, inflaciisa da deficitis

arsebobis pirobebSi, miuTiTebs krizisis dawyebaze, rodesac fasebis

matebis gamo mkveTrad mcirdeba moTxovna.

Cveulebriv, arsebobs bazris mdgomareobis Sefasebis Semdegi

xarisxobrivi maCveneblebi: gamococxlebuli, ganviTarebadi, stabiluri,

mdgradi, usicocxlo, stagnaciuri (Sekvecili), regresiuli, Semcirebadi

bazari da a. S.

koniunqturul SefasebaTa sistemaSi mniSvnelovani adgili ukavia

bazrebis masStabebisa da tipebis maCvenebels. bazris moculoba

ganisazRvreba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gayidvis moculobiT, agreTve

bazarze gasuli im firmebis raodenobiTa da zomiT (sididiT), romlebic

gamyidvelis rolSi gvevlinebian.

amasTan, xorcieldeba firmebis funqcionaluri specializaciis

daxasiaTeba, rogoricaa: gasaReba, sabiTumo-saSuamavlo vaWroba, sacalo

vaWroba, momsaxurebis gaweva.firmebi jgufdeba sakuTrebis formebisa da maT mier bazarze

dakavebuli wilis mixedviT. aseve specialuri gamokvlevebis safuZvelze

ganisazRvreba araorganizebuli bazrebis saorientacio masStabebi .



142

erTgvarovani da urTierTSemcvleli saqonliT movaWre firmebis

raodenobisa da zomebis, maTi bazarze dakavebuli wilis mixedviT

ganawileba SesaZleblobas iZleva ganisazRvros konkurenciis masStabebi

da

gavrcelebis done.

konkurenciisa da monopolizaciis niSnis mixedviT bazris tipebis

dasaxasiaTeblad igeba matrica (ix. cxrili 4.2), romelSic Seitaneba

rogorcstatistikuri monacemebi, ise institucionalurad dadgenili da

saeqsperto SefasebebiT miRebuli informacia (monacemebi). cxrili SeiZleba

aigos bazrebis iseTi tipebis mixedviT, rogoricaa: monopoliuri,

oligopoliuri da wminda konkurenciis bazari.

cxrili 4.2

bazris tipologiis matrica

bazris tipebi

F

firmebis

raodenoba

saqonlis

saxeoba

fasebis

kontroli

arafasismieri

konkurencia

wminda konkurencia Zalian bevri standartizi

rebuli

araris araris

monopolosturi

konkurencia

bevri diferenci

rebuli

viwro

CarcoebSi

reklama

servisi da a.S.

oligopolia ramodenime standartizirebuliandiferen

cirebuli

SezRuduli sxvadasxvaformebi

wminda monopolia erTi unikaluri mniSvnelovani konsiumerizmi



143

4.4. riskis faqtorebi bazarze da maTi Sefaseba

komerciuli saqmianobis ganxorcielebisas aucileblad

gasaTvaliswinebelia riskis faqtori, radgan igi komerciuli saqmianobis

Seucvlel komponents warmoadgens da mniSvnelovanwilad konkurentuli

brZolis arsebobiTaa ganpirobebuli.

rogorc cnobilia, riskSi igulisxmeba imis SiSi, rom firma an

komersanti miiRebs (ganicdis) danakargebs, ver miaRwevs Tavis miznebs,

dakargavs Tavis poziciebs bazarze, ver Seasrulebs

sakontraqtovaldebulebas, ver miiRebs gaTvaliswinebul (dagegmil)

mogebas da a.S. riski, warmoadgens ra rTul sazogadoebriv movlenas,

ganuyoflad aris

dakavSirebuli sabazro procesebTan, saerTo ekonomikur

koniunqturasTan, socialur-politikur mdgomareobasTan, erovnul

TaviseburebebTan, demografiul faqtorebTan da a.S. riski imis gamo, rom

miekuTvneba albaTur kategorias, uSualo gazomvas ar eqvemdebareba, racaZnelebs riskis obieqtur statistikur gamokvlevasa da gansazRvras.

riski ganpirobebulia bazarze moqmedi uamravi faqtoriT, romelTa

warmoSobis zusti winaswarmetyveleba da maTi sabazro procesebze

zegavlenis gansazRvra sakmaod rTulia. am SemTxvevaSi, igulisxmeba firmis

rogorc Sida, ise garegan garemoSi moqmedi is faqtorebi, romelic

uaryofiT gavlenas axdens komerciul saqmianobaze da did saSiSroebas

uqmnis firmis ara marto efeqtianobas, aramed mis arsebobasac ki. amis gamogansakurebiT didi mniSvneloba eniWeba aseTi faqtorebis warmoSobis

winaswarganWvretas raime zomiT mainc, raTa miRebul iqnes Sesabamisi

gadawyvetilebebi maTi zegavlenis Tavidan asacileblad an uaryofiTi

gavlenis Sesamcireblad.



144

firmis an komersantis riskis albaToba miT ufro didia, rac ufro

gaurkvevelia firmis garemo (gansakuTrebiT garegani kavSiri) da

maSasadame, bazarze mimdinare procesebi.

miuxedavadamisa, firmas xSirad SeuZlia gamoicnos da prognozireba

gaukeTos sxvadasxva faqtorebis aRmocenebasa da bazarze movlenebis

ganviTarebas. es gansakuTrebiT maSin aris SesaZlebeli, rodesac firmas

hyavs maRalkvalificiuri, Tanamedrove da strategiul menejments

dauflebuli mmarTvelebi da specialistebi. aseT pirobebSi firmas

(komersants) yovelTvis SeiZleba hqondes arCevani _ ar gariskos da

dakmayofildes naklebi mogebiT, an didi mogebisa da saqmianobis

gafarToebis mizniT wavides riskze.

yovelive aRniSnulTan dakavSirebiT da praqtikul gamocdilebaze

dayrdnobiT gamoiyeneba riskis dayofa or atributul jgufad: dasaSvebi,

gardauvali riski da zedmeti, dauSvebeli riski.

amasTan TiTqmmis yovelTvis gansazRvraven SesaZlo danakargebis

moculobas. rac ufro SezRudulia firma da naklebi alternativa gaaCnia,

an saerTod ar gaaCnia, miT ufro met riskze wasvlis winaSe dgeba igi.

ganasxvaveben riskis sxvadasxva saxeobas. kerZod, arsebobs

gamyidvelis, myidvelis, investoris, savaWro komersantisa da mewarmis

riski (gansakuTrebiT axali saqonlis gamoSvebisas) da sxv.

risks agreTve ganasxvaveben TavianTi saSiSroebis formebis mixedviT .

aseTebia: dabandebuli saxsrebis (investiciebis) sruli da nawilobrivi

dakargvis, gakotrebis, bazridan gamodevnis, momxmareblis mier axali

saqonlis arcnobis, kreditis dakargvis, inflaciasTan dakavSirebuli

riski da sxv.

rogorc riskis saxeobebis CamonaTvalidan Cans, mravali riskierTmaneTTanaa dakavSirebuli da erTmaneTs ganapirobebs.

ukanasknel periodSi riskis donis Sesamcireblad didi yuradReba

eqceva komerciuli saqmianobis (sameurneo saqmianobis) riskis dazRvevas ,

romliTac amJamad bevri sadazRveo kompania da bankia dakavebuli.



145

manamde, sanam firma (komersanti) risks daazRvevdes, saWiroa,

erTmaneTs Seutoldes sadazRveo danaxarjebi da riskis warmoSobis

albaTobis done.

komerciuli (savaWro) saqmianobis da, kerZod, sabazro koniunqturis

statistikis erT-erT amocanas riskis Sefaseba warmoadgens.

arsebobs riskis statistikuri Sefasebis sami ZiriTadi xerxi:

eqspertul-atributuli Sefaseba , romelic emyareba riskis warmoSobis

intuiciur Sefasebas; riskis faqtorebisa da kriteriumebis eqspertul-

baluri Sefaseba, romlis drosac gamoiyeneba sabazro koniunqturis

analizisa da Semdgom statistikur damuSavebaTa Sedegad miRebuli riskis

maCveneblebi; riskis albaTobis Sefaseba statistikuri modelebis

gamoyenebiT; riskis donis Sefaseba marketingis strategiuli matricebis

meSveobiT.

sabazro koniunqturis Sefasebidan gamomdinare, riskis kriteriumebs

miekuTvneba :

bazris cvlilebebis (ganviTarebis) tendenciebi, siCqare da veqtori;

bazris mdgradobis (meryeobis) done;

konkurenciis intensiurobis Sefaseba (konkurentuli bazris tipi);

konkurentuli firmebis raodenoba da simZlavre, calkeuli

konkurenti firmis wili bazarze);

sabazro koniunqturis ciklis Sefaseba;

riskis albaTobis Sefaseba (warmatebis Sansi), romelic gakeTebulia

warsulis gamocdilebis, eqsperimentis da analogouri modelebis

safuZvelze;

politikuri situaciis stabiluroba da mewarmeobis

institucionaluri daculobis done.

ganasxvaveben riskis obieqtur pirobebs, romlebTan aucilebelia

adaptireba da riskis im faqtorebs, romlebic garkveuli zomiT

eqvemdebareba marketingul zemoqmedebas. am ukanasknelTa ricxvSi Sedis:



146

mdgradoba mocemul lokalur bazarze;

SekveTebis `portfelis~ mdgomareoba;

bazarze konkurentebis arseboba Tu ararseboba, maTi wili bazarze;

moTxovnisa da miwodebis gawonasworebuloba, moTxovnis done da misitendencia;

firmebis uzrunvelyofis done sanedleulo, sasaqonlo, fuladi da

SromiTi resursebiT;

firmis mier gasayidi saqonlis fasebis done;

firmis konkurentunarianobis done (axali saqonlis arseboba,

mecnierul-teqnikuri progresisa da momuSaveTa done,

TviTRirebuleba, marketinguli muSaobis done da sxv.); firmis finansuri mdgomareobis done;

firmis materialur-teqnikuri bazis mdgomareoba;

firmis kadrebis profesiulobis done.

firmas SeuZlia da aucilebelicaa efeqturi RonisZiebebis SemuSa-

vebiT win aRudges moaxloebul saSiSroebebs da amiT Seamciros riskis

done. aseT RonisZiebebs SeiZleba miekuTvnos:

warmoebis da savaWro saqonelbrunvis diversifikacia. diversifikacianiSnavs erT firmaSi erTdroulad mravali saxis produqciis

warmoebis ganxorcielebas, sasaqonlo asortimentis gafarToebasa

(savaWro firmaSi) da momxmareblamde misi dayvanis sxvadasxva

xerxebis gamoyenebas;

investiciebisa da Sedegebis (komerciuli saqmianobis da sxv.)

dazRveva;

sakuTar SesaZleblobaTa obieqturi da dasabuTebuli Sefaseba; dagegmili sargeblianobis maqsimalurad miRweva(maqsimizacia),

romelic gaiangariSeba yvela SesaZlo Sedegis sargeblianobis

saSualo ariTmetikulis gamoyvaniT, sadac Sedegebis albaToba

gamodis wonebis rolSi.



147

riskis Sefasebisas praqtikulad yvelaze xelmisawvdomia

eqspertuli meTodi. riskis raodenobrivi Sefaseba xorcieldeba

koniunqturis analizis safuZvelze. riskis gamzomad gamodis bazris

ZiriTadi parametrebis meryeobisa da mdgradobis maCveneblebi, agreTve misi

ganviTarebis (cvlilebebis) tendenciebis maxasiaTeblebi. rac ufro

intensiuria variacia, sxva Tanabar SemTxvevaSi, miT ufro maRalia riskis

done. rac didia bazris tevadoba da rac ufro xelsayrelia misi

tendenciebi, miT ufro mcirea riski. am da sxva monacemebis safuZvelze

eqspertebs gamoyavT riskis Sefasebis balebi.

calkeuli riski (R) aRiwereba i-uri faqtorebis (riskis

kriteriumis) gansazRvruli ricxviT (n), romelic ar aRemateba 10-s.

calkeuli maTgani ranJirdeba riskis albaTobis donis mixedviT da xdeba

misi normireba, e.i. calkeuls miakuTvneben gansazRvrul bals (Bi), 1-dan 10-

mde. amasTan, riskianobis donis gaTvaliswinebiT, calkeul aseT faqtors

eqspertuli gziT miakuTvneben Tavis wonas (Wi), romelmac unda asaxos

faqtoris gavlenis xvedriTi wona riskis mTlian sidideSi. wonebis jami

utoldeba 1-s. romelime faqtoris ararseboba fasdeba nulad. faqtoris

bali mravldeba Sesabamis wonaze. xolo Sedegebis jami gansazRvravs

mocemuli riskis sidides. es damokidebuleba gamoixateba formuliT:

n

i

i )RW(R (4.5)

rac ufro axloa R 1-Tan, miT mcirea riski, xolo rac ufro axloa

10-Tan, miT ufro maRalia riski. amasTan, arsebobs riskis zonis cneba .

riskis zona warmoadgens sazRvrebs, romlebSic riski ar aWarbebs

gansazRvrul sidideebs. riskis sazRvrebi gamoixateba riskis saSualo

donis sididiT (

R ).

riskis sazRvrebis skalamocemuliacxrilSi (ix. cxrili 4.3)

cxrili 4.3

riskis sazRvrebis skala



148

riskiszonis

sazRvrebi0 0,1-2,5 2,5-5,0 5,1-7,5 7,6-10,0

riskis

zonebi

urisko

zona

minimaluri

riskis zona

amaRlebuli

riskis zona

riskis

kritikulizona

dauSvebeli

riskis zona

riskis zonis operatiuli gansazRvra xorcieldeba marketinguli

matricis meSveobiT . am dros bazarze firmis poziciis dadgena xdeba ori

kriteriumis mixedviT. es kriteriumebia: bazris mdgomareoba da firmis

sakuTari SesaZleblobebi. aRniSnuli ori maxasiaTebeli gamoisaxeba

koordinantebis saxiT, romelTa gadakveTac aRniSnavs firmis

mdgomareobasa da, Sesabamisad, riskis dones.garda amisa, riskis albaToba ganisazRvreba rogorc eqspertuli

gziT _ analogebis analizis safuZvelze, agreTve riskis Teoriis

daskvnebs dafuZnebuli meTodikis meSveobiT, (statistikur

gadawyvetilebaTa Teoriebs).

ganusazRvrelobis pirobebSi es meTodika iZleva alternatiuli

variantebidan optimaluri sabazro strategiisa da

taqtikisamorCevissaSualebasstatistikuri dakvirvebis Sedegebis mixedviT.magaliTad. moTxovnis Cavardnis (mkveTri Semcirebis) SemTxvevaSi

SesaZlebelia an Sewydes vardnis nakeTobis gamoSveba (savaWro obieqtze

saqonlis Semotana) da bazridan wasvla, an modernizaciis, fasebis

Semcirebisa da sxva RonisZiebebis gatarebis safuZvelze ganxorcieldes

Camqrali moTxovnis reanimacia (aRdgena).

gadawyvetilebis arCeva emyareba Semdeg strategiebs:

maqsimaluri danakargebis minimizacia;

udidesi riskis minimizacia;

riskis maqsimizacia: azartis strategiiT;

kompromisuloba: minimaluri da maqsimaluri danakargebidan saSualo;

sasargeblo efeqtis maqsimaluri (zogjer saSualo) mniSvneloba;



149

maqsimaluri molodini.

amasTan erTad, xSirad gamoiyeneba Sereuli strategia , romlis

gaangariSebis aparati warmodgenilia maTematikuri statistikis Sesabamis

naSromebSi. albaTuri Sefasebebi, romlebic keTdebasabazro situaciebis

Sesabamisad, saSualebas iZleva moxdes riskis Sedareba kapitalTan,

romelsac flobs firma.

zogierT mkvlevars riskis Sefasebisas Semoaqvs saqonlis

sargeblianobis funqcia.(a. pervozvanski).

naSromSi `riski Tanamedrove biznesSi~, romlis avtorebi arian: p.

grabovi, s. petrovi da sxv. ganxilulia danakargebis albaTobis analizis

statistikuri meTodi lorencis mrudis meSveobiT da zogierTi donis

danaxarjebis aRmocenebis (warmoSobis) sixSire formuliT:

saerT. N

NF

1

(4.6)

sadac F aris zogadi donis danakargebis aRmocenebis (warmoSobis) sixSire;

1 N _ danakargebis konkretuli donis dadgomis SemTxvevaTa ricxvi;

saerT. N _SemTxvevaTa saerTo raodenoba statistikur SerCevaSi,

romelicagreTve Seicavs warmatebiT ganxorcielebul operaciebs.

firmis finansuri mdgomareobis Sefasebis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba e.w.

skoringuli modelebi (inglisuri sityvaa da niSnavs davalianebas), e.i.

firmebis gakotrebis albaTobis modelebi.

am modelebs Semdegi saxe gaaCniaT:

n

i

1iXAZf (4.7)

sadac fZ aris qulaTa jami, romelic miekuTvneba firmis finansur-

ekonomikuri mdgomareobis calkeul i-ur paramets.

fZ _ i-uri parametris mniSvneloba;

_ calkeuli parametris wona an rangi, romelic ganisazRvreba



150

empiriulad;

n _ i-uri parametrebis ricxvi.

winaswar, empiriuli gziT dgindeba parametrebis jamis normativi ( normZ );im

SemTxvevaSi, rodesac parametrebis jami normativze mcire an tolia( fZ > normZ ) firmis finansuri mdgomareoba myaria da gakotrebis albaToba

didi ar aris; parametrebis jami im SemTxvevaSi,rodesac igi normativze

mcirea ( fZ < normZ ), firmas emuqreba gakotreba.

4.5. bazris potencialis, tevadobis, gajerebulobis da proporciulobis

gansazRvra

nebismieri bazris potenciuri SesaZleblobebi udides gavlenas

axdens bazris rogorc arsebuli mdgomareobis ganmsazRvrel nebismier

parametrze, ise misi strategiuli ganviTarebis yvela mimarTulebaze.

bazris potencialis cnebaSi igulisxmeba sawarmoo da

samomxmareblo Zalebis prognozuli erToblioba, romelic ganapirobebs

moTxovnisa da miwodebis sidides moculobas).

sawarmoo potenciali aris mocemul periodSi (weliwadSi)saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebis is moculoba, romelic firmas

(firmaTa jgufs, mocemuli regionis firmaTa erTobliobas) SeuZlia

waradginos bazarze sawarmoo faqtorebis maqsimaluri efeqtianobiT

gamoyenebis pirobebSi. misi sawinaaRmdegoa samomxmareblo potenciali,

romelic gulisxmobs bazris SesaZleblobas, gansazRvruli periodis

manZilze (weliwadSi) Caylapos (iyidos) saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

gansazRvruli moculoba.

amasTan, aRsaniSnavia, rom sawarmo potencialis Sefaseba da analizi

myidvelebis interesTa, xolo samomxmareblo potenciali gamyidvelebis

interesTa wres miekuTvneba, ramdenadac saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris

potencialis realizaciis Sedegs myidvelobiTi (gadaxdisunariani)



151

moTxovnis dakmayofileba, sasaqonlo da momsaxurebis masis mimoqcevis

sferoSi CarTva da misi moxmarebis sferoSi gadasvla warmoadgens.

sayuradReboa is faqtic, rom bazris potencialis cneba

faqtobrivad, ufro farToa, vidre is sabazro koniunqturis statistikaSia

warmodgenili.

saqme isaa, rom bazris saerTo potencials miekuTvneba: safinanso-

sakredito potenciali, sasaqonlo mimoqcevisa da momsaxurebis sferos

materialur-teqnikuri baza da masSi dasaqmebuli muSakebi. bazris

potencialis Sefasebis mizani ki calkeuli firmebis sabazro SesaZ-

leblobaTa daxasiaTebaSi mdgomareobs.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris potencialis gaangariSeba war-

moebs Semdegi TanmimdevrobiT: ganisazRvreba sawarmoo da samomxmareblo

erTeulTa raodenoba, gaiangariSeba xvedriTi simZlavris maCveneblebi

warmoebisa da moxmarebis Sesabamisad. gaangariSebaSi (formulaSi)

Seiyvaneba miwodebisa da moTxovnis elastikurobis maCveneblebi fasebze,

Semosavlebsa da bazris sxva faqtorebze damokidebulebiT, SeiZleba aseve

gamoiyos bazris is xvedriTi wona, romelic firmis gaangariSebiT

konkurentebs rCebaT. gaangariSebaSi aseve SeiZleba Setanil iqnes

maCveneblebi, romlebic zRudaven an afarToveben warmoebisa da moxmarebis

moculobas.

bazris sawarmoo potenciali ganisazRvreba formuliT:

n

i

j xii F Z W N P )(b

(4.8)

sadac bP aris bazris potenciali;

i N _ warmoebis erTeulebi;

iW _ sawarmoo erTeulis simZlavris maCveneblebi;

xZ _ moTxovnis an miwodebis elastikuroba;

j F _ potencialis sxva faqtorebi da elementebi;

n _ warmoebis an moxmarebis erTeulTa ricxvi.



152

vrceli saxiT sawarmoo potencialis (sasaqonlo miwodebis

potencialis) gaangariSeba mocemul periodSi SeiZleba moxdes Semdegi

formuliT:

C B K E T R DW N P

n

i

koef elast pmat iiii )******( ...s.m. , (4.9)

sadac s.m.P aris bazris sawarmoo potenciali, anu saqonlis moculoba,

romelic SeiZleba warmoebul iqnes da miewodos bazars

gansazRvruli periodis ganmavlobaSi;

Ni _ firma an firmaTa jgufi, romlebic awarmoeben i -ur

saqonels (momsaxurebas);

Wi _ firmis an firmaTa jgufis saSualo simZlavre i -uri

saqonelis gamoSvebaze;

Di _ sawarmoosimZlavreebis datvirTvis saSualo done;

Ri _ resursebiT uzrunvelyofis done, romelic aucilebelia

sawarmoo programis realizaciisaTvis (SesrulebisaTvis);

.. * pelstymat p E T _ sabiTumo fasebis cvlilebaze Sesworeba, sadac

mat pT . _fasebis matebis tempia, xolo elast p E . _ produqciisa da

nedleulis miwodebis elastikuroba fasebze damokidebulebiT;

K _ saqonlis konkurentunarianobaze Sesworeba;

B _ Sida sawarmoo moxmareba normativebis mixedviT;

C_konkurirebadi importi;

n _ i-uri sawarmoo firmaTa ricxvi.

praqtikaSi, SekveTebis porTfelis informaciaze dayrdnobiT

SesaZlebelia sawarmoo potencialis Semdegi ufro martivi modelis

gamoyeneba:

n

l

elast p pmat lj B E T q P .**p (4.10)

sadac jiq aris saqonlis (momsaxurebis) moculoba, romelic dagegmilia

gamosaSvebad i-ur sawarmoo firmaSi SekveTebis portfelis

Sesabamisad



153

n _ firmaTa ricxvi, romlebTanac gaformebulia kontraqti j -uri

saqonelis miwodebaze.

bazris potencialis gansazRvris mniSvnelobas zrdis is faqtic,

rom is umniSvnelovanes rols TamaSobs myidvelobiTi (gadaxdisunariani)

moTxovnis SeswavlaSi.

samomxmareblo potenciali xasiaTdeba bazris tevadobiT . Ges

maCvenebeli, marTalia, axlos dgas moTxovnis moculobasTan, magram

mTlianad ar aris gaigivebuli masTan.

bazris tevadoba warmoadgens saqonlis im raodenobas (Rire-

bulebas), romelic SeuZlia Caylapos (gayidos) bazarma garkveul

pirobebSi drois romelime monakveTSi.

bazris tevadoba zogjer ganisazRvreba moTxovnis msgavsad,

moTxovnis mravalfaqtoruli prognozuli modelis meSveobiT. es

gaangariSeba albaTuri, xSirad mravalvariantuli xasiaTis matarebelia.

bazris tevadobis gaangariSebis meore meTodi _ multiplikaciur-

aditiuri modeli _ warmoadgens ZiriTads normatiul da eqspertul

maCveneblebSi. igi universaluria da gamoiyeneba rogorc warmoebissaSualebaTa, ise moxmarebis sagnebis samomxmareblo bazrebisaTvis.

bazris tevadoba ganisazRvreba konkretuli saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis calkeuli lokaluri bazrebis WrilSi. bazris tevadoba am

SemTxvevaSi ganisazRvreba formuliT:L

CR )ddQ(V)ZS(Pn

i

i mfR , (4.11)

sadac RP bazris tevadoba (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis raodenoba da

Rirebuleba, romelic SeiZleba gaiyidos gansazRvrul periodSi);

iS _ i-uri momxmarebelTa raodenoba;

_ moxmarebis done (koeficienti) sabaziso periodSi, an i-uri

jgufis momxmarebelTa moxmarebis normativi (normativebi:



154

teqnologiuri _ warmoebis saSualebebisaTvis, fiziologiuri _

kvebis produqtebisaTvis, racionaluri _ arasasursaTo

produqtebisa da momsaxurebisaTvis);

Z _ moTxovnis elastikurobis koeficienti fasebsa da Semosavlebze

damokidebulebiT;

V _ saqonlis normaluri sadazRveo rezervis (maragis) moculoba;

Q _ bazris gajerebuloba _ mosaxleobis saojaxo meurneobaSi

arsebuli saqonlis moculoba an firmebSi arsebuli warmoebis

saSualebaTa moculoba mocemuli periodisaTvis;

fd _ saqonlis fizikuri cveTa;

md _ saqonlis moraluri cveTa;

R _ bazris gareT moTxovnis dakmayofilebis alternatiuli formebi

(moxmarebis naturaluri wyaroebi, Savi bazari);

C _ konkurentebis xvedriTi wona bazarze.

bazris gajerebulobis maCvenebeli damoukidebel rols TamaSobs

sabazro koniunqturis analizis dros, radgan zRudavs ra moTxovnas, igi

Zlier gavlenas axdens bazris ciklurobaze, bazris gajerebuloba

uCvenebs saqonliT uzrunvelyofis dones, romelic ganisazRvreba an

eqspertuli gziT, an saojaxo meourneobaTa SerCeviTi gamokvlevis

safuZvelze. xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonlisaTvis gamoiyeneba

gaangariSebis sabalanso meTodi, romelic xorcieldeba Semdegi formulis

mixedviT:

CR QQ b , (4.12)

sadac bQ aris saqonlis raodenoba (moculoba) periodis bolos;

Q _ arsebuli saqonlis raodenoba periodis dasawyisSi;

R _ SeZenili saqonlis raodenoba (moculoba) mocemul periodSi;

C _ gasuli saqonlis raodenoba mocemul periodSi, romelic moxda

saqonlis (xangrZlivi moxmarebis) fizikuri da moraluri cveTis

gamo.



155

am SemTxvevaSi gaTvaliswinebul unda iqnes, rom saqonlis gasvla

gaiangariSeba xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonlis samsaxuris saSualo

xangrZlivobis normativebis safuZvelze.

saqonlis fizikuri da moraluri cveTa saqonlis Secvlis

aucileblobas iwvevs. moxmarebaSi (eqspluataciaSi) myofi saqonlis

fizikuri da gansakuTrebiT moraluri cveTis gamo saqonlis gasvla

damokidebulia ara marto misi samsaxuris vadis gansazRvrul teqnikur

normativebze, aramed mosaxleobis Semosavlebis moculobaze. misi zrdis

SemTxvevaSi Cqardeba xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebis Secvlis

aucilebloba, anu mcirdeba maTi samsaxuris faqtobrivi vada. saqonlis

moraluri cveTis procesis mimdinareobis Seswavla warmoebs specialuri

marketinguli gamokvlevebis saSualebiT _ gamokiTxvebisa da myidvelobiTi

qcevis Seswavlis meSveobiT.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari warmoadgens ra rTul

mravalstruqturul kompleqss, misi ganviTareba (cvlileba) sabazro

urTierTobis sxva komponentebTan kavSirSi mimdinareobs.

proporciuloba, e.i. bazris sxvadasxva elements Soris optimaluri

Sefardeba, bazris sijansaRisa da misi Tanmimdevruli normaluri

ganviTarebis (cvlilebis) umniSvnelovanesi pirobaa. xolo, bazris

Semadgeneli elementebis disproporciuloba da deformaciuli

cvlilebebi Zlier arTulebs sabazro urTierTobebs da bazars

araefeqturs xdis.

aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, bazris makro da mikroproporciebis

Seswavla sabazro koniunqturis statistikis mniSvnelovan da aqtualur

amocanas warmoadgens . amasTan, sabazro koniunqturis statistikam ara

marto konstatacia (fiqsireba) da Sefaseba unda gaukeTos bazarze Seqmnilproporciebs, aramed unda daaxasiaTos kidec proporciaTa cvlilebis

tendenciebi da gaanalizos struqturuli cvlilebebi (Zvrebi).

bazris proporciulobis kvlevis statistikuri aparati Seicavs

analizis Semdeg instrumentebs: sabalanso meTodi, struqturisa da



156

koordinaciis SefardebiTi sidideebi, SefardebiTi (komparatiuli)

indeqsebi, elastikurobis koeficientebi da mravalfaqtoruli modelebis

beta-koeficientebi.

elastikurobis empiruli da Teoriuli koeficienteb i ara marto

avlens ama Tu im faqtorze moTxovnisa da miwodebis damokidebulebas,

aramed agreTve adgens gamovlenil damokidebulebaTa proporciulobasac,

radgan aCvenebs Sedegobrivi niSnis procentul cvlilebas faqtoruli

niSnis erTi procentiT gadidebisas (cvlilebisas), xolo beta-koeficienti,

romelic gamoTvlilia regresis mravalfaqtoruli gantolebis

parametrebiT iZleva calkeuli strqturuli faqtorebis gavlenis Zalis

SeTanazomadobis SesaZleblobas.

struqturul analizSi SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes proporciulobis

maCvenebelTa meryeobis (cvalebadobis) analizis meTodebi, maTi trenduli

da regresiuli modelebi, analizis indeqsuri meTodi, firmebisa da

regionebis dajgufeba struqturuli maCveneblebis mixedviT da a.S.

bazris proporciulobis analizSi umTavresad gamoiyeneba

struqturis ori ZiriTadi SefardebiTi maCvenebeli: xvedriTi wona e.i.

nawilis adgili mTelSi da Sefardebis koeficienti , e.i. erTi erTobliobis

ori movlenis uSualo Sepirispireba (Setoleba). pirveli uCvenebs im

adgils, romelsac mocemuli nawili ikavebs mTlian erTobliobaSi.

rogorc wesi, xvedriTi wona gamoiTvleba procentebSi e.i. movlenis 100

erTeulze da koeficientebSi movlenis erT erTeulze.

bazris proporciebis Seswavlisas farTod gamoiyeneba grafikuli

meTodi, kerZod seqtoruli diagramebi. amosavali monacemebi gamoixateba

rogorc naturalur, ise RirebulebiT erTeulebSi. RirebulebiTi

erTeulebis dros xvedriTi wonis sidide damokidebulia ara martomoculobaTa proporciebze, aramed Sesaswavl erTobliobaSi Semavali

sasaqonlo erTeulebis fasebis Sefardebazec.



157

bazris proporciulobis analizi unda ganxorcieldes rogorc

statikaSi, ise dinamikaSi. xvedriTi wonis Sedarebisas gamoiTvleba Sefar-

debiTi maCvenebeli: xvedriTi wonis indeqsi .

saboloo angariSiT xvedriTi wonis indeqsi (zrdis tempi)

damokidebulia movlenis mocemuli nawilis da mTlianad movlenis

veqtorisa da siCqaris cvlilebebis Tanafardobaze.

bazris proporciulobis gansakuTrebul maCvenebels miekuTvneba

komparatiuli indeqsi , romelic iZleva dinamikuri proporciebis Sedarebis

saSualebas.

komparatiuli indeqsi warmoadgens ori movlenis indeqsis (zrdis

tempebi) Sefardebas. magaliTad, samomxmareblo saqonlis gayidvis indeqsis

Sefardeba momsaxurebis gayidvis indeqsTan an sacalo saqonelbrunvis

indeqsis Sefardeba mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebis indeqsTan. Tavisi

arsiT komparatiuli indeqsi mosworebis koeficientis gaangariSebis erT-

erTi variantia.

tendenciebis, mdgradobis, xvedriTi wonis damokidebuleba da

proporciulobis sxva maCveneblebis Seswavla xorcieldeba Sesabamisi

statistikuri meTodebis meSveobiT, sadac saqonlis (bazris da a.S.)

xvedriTi wona ganixileba rogorc varirebadi SemTxveviTi sidide:

)....( 21 ni X X X f d (4.13)

xvedriTi wonis variacia ganisazRvreba dispesiiT:

n

i

i

n

i

i

2

i

F

F)dd(

(4.14)

sadac id aris varirebadi xvedriTi wona (magaliTad, mosaxleobis xvadasxva

socialuri jgufebis mTlian danaxarjebSi momsaxurebaze gaweuli

danaxarjebis xvedriTi wona;

d _ xvedriTi wonis saSualo mniSvneloba mTlian erTobliobaSi;

iF _ wonebi, romlebadac SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes erTobliobis



158

erTeulebis zomis maxasiaTeblebi (magaliTad, mosaxleobis

raodenoba TiToeul socialur jgufebSi).

rogorc cnobilia, proporciulobis gansazRvrisas arsebobs maCve-

nebelTa ierarqiuloba maTi mniSvnelobis mixedviT.

bazris proporciulobis umniSvnelovanes maCvenebels miekuTvneba

miwodebisa da moTxovnis Tanafardoba , romelic asaxavs bazris kanonis

gamovlinebas da gansazRvravs bazris danarCeni kategoriebis ganviTarebis

(cvlilebis) xasiaTsa da mis socialur da ekonomikur efeqtianobas.

misi roli koniunqturul analizSi ganxiluli iyo zemoT (ix.

sabazro situaciis koniunqturuli Sefasebebi), sadac agreTve mocemulia

misi Sefasebisa da analizis zogierTi meTodi. aq damatebis saxiT SeiZleba

iTqvas, rom miwodebisa da moTxovnis proporciebi ganisazRvreba rogorc

mTlianad saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris, ise regionalur WrilSi

mTliani sasaqonlo masasa da calkeuli saqonlis mixedviT.

damoukidebeli amocanaa momxmarebelTa sxvadasxva socialur-

ekonomikuri jgufebis moTxovnis Tanafardoba . saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

mTliani erTobliobis mixedviT mocemuli proporciis gazomvis erT-erT

xerxs warmoadgens moTxovnisa da miwodebis balansi , romelSic xdeba

myidvelobiTi fondebis (gadaxdisunariani moTxovnis) sasaqonlo

resursebTan da momsaxurebis potencialTan Sepirispireba. am gziT

gamovlenili saldo gamoiyeneba bazris disproporciis dasaxasiaTeblad

da Sesabamisi niSnebis (+ an _) arsebobis mixedviT dgindeba deficitis

arseboba an gasaRebis krizisi.

magram es xerxi Zneli gamosayenebelia calkeuli saqonlis bazrebis

proporciulobis Sesafaseblad, Tumca principSi SeiZleba ganisazRvros

eqspertuli gziTa da analogiuri meTodebiT myidvelobiTi fondebis jami,romelic orientirebulia swored mocemuli saqonlis SesaZenad. Semdeg

amave sqemiT xorcieldeba misi Setoleba sasaqonlo resursebis

moculobebTan.



159

moTxovnis maxasiaTebel maCvenebelTa proporciuli damokidebuleba

faqtorul maCvenebelze SeiZleba gamoixatos elastikurobis koeficientiT,

romelic aCvenebs procentul cvlilebas faqtoruli maCveneblis erTi

procentiT gadidebisas (cvlilebebisas).

moTxovnisa da miwodebis proporciis Sefaseba saqonlis bazarze

koreqtirdeba miwodebis mTlian moculobaSi importis xvedriTi

wonisSetaniT gaangariSebaSi.

bazris umniSvnelovanes proporciad unda CaiTvalos warmoebis

saSualebaTa da moxmarebis sagnebis Tanafardoba. is ganisazRvreba

rogorc statikaSi, ise dinamikaSi (ukanasknel SemTxvevaSi Sesadaris

fasebSi), agreTve gaiangariSeba komparatiuli indeqsi , romelic asaxavs

maTi cvlilebis proporciebs. samomxmareblo niSnis mixedviT bazris

proporciulobis analizis gagrZelebas emsaxureba saqonelbrunvis

dargobrivi da sasaqonlo struqturis daxasiaTeba.

4.6. bazris ganviTarebis, meryeobis da ciklurobis

tendenciaTa analizi

sabazro koniunqturis Sefasebisa da analizis centralur amocanas

misi ganviTarebis tendenciebisa da TaviseburebaTa,agreTvemdgradobis

Seswavla warmoadgens.

bazris ganviTarebis veqtoris da siCqaris gansasazRvravad igeba

maCveneblebis _ bazris indikatorebisa da saqmiani aqtiurobis

maCveneblebis dinamikuri mwkrivebi. gamoiTvleba mocemul periodSi

sabaziso, jaWvuri da saSualo zrdis tempebi, agreTve mizanSewonilia

gaangariSdes komparatiuli zrdis tempebi urTierTganmapirobebelifaqtorebisaTvis _ gansakuTrebiT im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac erTi maCvenebeli

ufro swrafad an ufro nela icvleba, vidre meore.

bazris ganviTarebis tendencia, TvalsaCionoebis mizniT, SeiZleba

gamoisaxos grafikulad.



160

grafikze aRniSnuli doneebi an tempebi yvelazexSirad asaxavs

ganviTarebis uTanabrobas: daCqarebas, Senelebas, amaRlebebsa da

Cavardnebis naxtomebs . aseT pirobebSi mkafio tendenciaTa aRmoCena da

koniunqturis Sefaseba rTulia.

grafikze aRniSnuli doneTa meryeobebi SeiZleba moswordes sami

xerxiT, TiToeul maTgans Sesabamis situaciaSi Tavisi analizuri

Rirebuleba aqvs:

teqnikuri gaTanabrebis meTodi,rodesac grafikze vizualurad

tardeba Tanabarmoqmedi (gamTanabrebeli) xazi, pirdapiri an mrudi,

romelic mkvlevaris azriT, asaxavs ganviTarebis tendencias

meqanikuri mosworebis meTodi (3,5 da meti donis saSualoTa srialas

gaangariSeba, romelic asaxavs ganviTarebis tendencias an ciklurobas).

analizuri gaTanabrebis meTodi (trendis statistikuri modelis ageba).

aseTnairad gamovlenili mimarTuleba warmoadgens bazris ganviTarebis

(cvlilebis) ZiriTadi tendenciis maxasiaTebels. igi agreTve SeiZleba

gmoyenebul iqnes prognozis gasakeTeblad, ufro zustad

eqstrapoliaciisaTvis , e.i. Camoyalibebuli tendenciebis momaval periodSi

gasavrceleblad.

tendenciaTa Sefasebis teqnikuri meTodis Rirsebaa koniunqturuli

Sefasebis siswrafe da simartive, miuxedavad imisa, rom misi sizuste am

dros ar aris maRali. meqanikuri mosworebis meTodis moxerxebuloba ki

gaangariSebis simartiveSi mdgomareobs. xolo rac Seexeba analizuri

gaTanabrebis meTodis (statistikuri trenduli modelis) upiratesobas, is

ufro maRali donis saimedobiT xasiaTdeba, garda amisa, saSualebas iZleva

moxdes trendis gaTanabrebis parametrebis ekonomikuri interpretireba da

sakmaod TvalsaCinod gamoxatavs tendenciasa da gadaxras misgan.ganviTarebis xasiaTis Sesabamisad, airCeva pirdapiri an mrude wrfis

Sesabamisi funqcia da igeba Semdegi tipis trendis modeli:

n

i

i

ii t baY (4.15)

sadac t aris periodis nomeri;



161

a _ gantolobis Tavisufali wevri;

bi _ gantolobis parametrebi.

teqnikuri da trenduli modelebis safuZvelze SeiZleba gamov-

lindes da bolo SemTxvevaSi gaizomos bazris ganviTarebis mdgradoba

droSi. teqnikuri xerxi ki mxolod imis saSualebas iZleva, rom

vizualurad Sefasdes wrfidan (xazidan) mwkrivis faqtobrivi gadaxris

done, romelic axasiaTebs tendencias da gakeTdes mdgradobis donis

atributuli Sefaseba: maRali, dabali da a.S.

bazris dinamikuri ganviTarebis mdgradoba (an aramdgradoba)

vlindeba ZiriTadi tendenciidan (anu trendidan) faqtobrivi ganviTarebis

donis gadaxris xasiaTSi, rac saSualebas iZleva bazris ganviTarebis

mdgradoba gaizomos aproqsimaciis koeficientis maCvenebliT . gaiangariSeba

trendidan empiruli doneebis saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra:

n

y yn

i

t i

y y t i

2)(

(4.16)

sadact i y y aris dinamikuri mwkrivis empiruli doneebis, saSualo

kvadratuli gadaxra trendidan;

i y dinamikuri mwkrivis i - ri done;

t y dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebuli i - uri done;

n _ dinamikuri mwkrivebis i - uri doneTa ricxvi.

saSualo kvadratuli gadaxris Sefaseba saSualo donesTan

gamoxatavs dinamikuri procesebis mdgradobis dones standartizebul

masStabSi (0-dan 100%-mde):

.100yK

tyy

a

(4.17)

am maCvenebels ewodeba aproqsimaciis koeficienti.

bazris tendenciebisa da meryeobis analizi sakmaod Sromatevadi

procesia, romelic moiTxovs Sesabamisi informaciis mopovebas, dinamikuri

mwkrivebis agebas, ganawilebis mwkrivebis Sedgenas, statistikur gaanga-



162

riSebasa da statistikur gaangariSebaTa ganxorcilebas kompiuteruli

teqnologiebis gamoyenebiT.

operatiuli miznebisaTvis ukve aRniSnul meTodebTan erTad

rekomendirebulia testirebis specifikuri koniunqturuli meTodi,

romelic ar moiTxovs rTul gaangariSebebs.

koniunqturul testSi gamoiyeneba sidideTa (cvladebis) sami jgufi:

instrumentaluri cvladebi , romlebic damokidebulia firmaTa

saqmianobaze da igegmeba TviT firmebis mier;

molodinis cvladebi , romlebic damokidebulia ara TviT firmaze,

aramed garegan faqtorebze;

erToblivi cvladebi , romlebic damokidebulia rogorc firmis

moqmedebaze, ise garegan faqtorebze.

sabazro koniunqturis analizis praqtikaSi farTo gamoyeneba pova

tendenciurma gamokiTxvebma , romlebic faqtobrivad eqspertuli

gamokvlevis variantia. swored mis safuZvelze muSavdeba koniunqturuli

testebi, romelic warmoadgens bazarze Camoyalibebuli cvlilebis

(ganviTarebis) tendenciis sami SesaZlo Sefasebis saSualo

ariTmetikuls:zrdis, stabilurobis da Semcirebis (Cavardnis ), da

TiToeul maTgans miakuTvneben Sesabamis balebs. Sedegad miiReba bazris

ganviTarebis (cvlilebis) tendenciaTa ganzogadebuli Sefaseba.

bazris meryeobis maCvenebelTa Sefasebebi statikaSi , rogorc geog-

rafiuli, ise ekonomikuri sivrcis mixedviT, xorcieldeba variaciis

koeficientis meSveobiT Semdegi formulis safuZvelze:

100

y

V

, (4.18)

sadac y aris saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra:

n

i

i

n

i

ii

F

F y y 2)(

(4.19)



163

sadacn aris i - urerTeulTa ricxvi (sawarmo);

i F i -uri erTeulis zomis maxasiaTebeli wona(saqonelbrunva, mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba da a.S.);

y _ i -uri sawarmos bazris parametri;

y _ parametris saSualo mniSvneloba (saSualo done), gaiangariSeba

Sewonili saSualo ariTmetikulis mixedviT:

y .

n

i

i

n

i

ii

F

F Y

(4.20)

im SemTxvevaSi, roca SeuZlebelia Sewonvis ganxorcieleba, an roca

struqtura met-naklebad erTgvarovania, dasaSvebia mivmarToT arapiradpir

daxasiaTebas an gamoviyenoT Seuwonavi saSualoebi.

bazris mdgradoba SeiZleba agreTve Sefasdes bazris mdgomareobisa

da ganviTarebis ZiriTadi maCveneblebis mixedviT firmebis dajgufebiT.

magaliTad, konkurenti firmebis dajgufeba gayidvis moculobis an

gayidvis tempebisa da fasebis doneebis mixedviT.

bazars, rogorc erTiani ekonomikuri sivrcis ganviTarebaSi(cvlilebaSi), aseve nebismieri lokaluri bazris ganviTarebaSi

(cvlilebaSi), SeiZleba gamovlindes gansazRvruli ganmeoradoba,

cikluroba, romelic ganpirobebulia bazris rogorc Sida TvisebebiT, ise

garegani mizezebiT (faqtorebiT).

ganasxvaveben Sidawliur, sezonur ciklurobas, da mravalwlian

ciklurobas.

bazris Sidawliuri cikluroba , Cveulebriv, sezonuri xasiaTisaa.

misi gamovlena SesaZlebelia sezonurobis indeqsebiT, meqanikuri

mosworebis meTodebiT, analizuri gantolebebiT da ufro xSirad furies

formuliT:

m

R

R R 0 )Rtsin bRtcosa(ay (4.21)



164

sadac t aris sidide, romelic gansazRvravs furies formulis (`garmonis~)

rigis nomers;

oa , R a da R b _ parametrebi, romlebic ganisazRvreba umcires

kvadratTa meTodiT;R _ furies formulis rigebis (`garmonis~) ricxviT, romelic

tolia 1,2 da a.S.

sezonuri ciklebis analizis procesSi gamoiricxeba SemTxveviTi

ryevebi (am mizniT calkeuli periodisaTvis gaiangariSeba mravalwliani

saSualo) da trendi, romelic axasiaTebs ganviTarebis (cvlilebis)

ZiriTad tendencias, e.i. yvela faqtobrivi done mosworebulia.

moTxovnisa da miwodebis sezonuri ryevebi bazris ganviTarebis

(cvlilebis) mniSvnelovan komponents Seadgens. sezonuri ciklurobis Zala

SeiZleba gaizomos Cveulebrivivariaciis koeficientiT , agreTve trendis

gamoricxvis gaTvaliswinebiT (aproqsimaciis koeficientis analogiurad ).

bazris cikluroba agreTve dakavSirebulia saqonelTa sasicocxlo

ciklebTan, romelic sabazro meqanizmis ganuyofeli komponentia. mocemuli

movlena Seiswavleba marketinguli gamokvlevis procesSi, magram igi

agreTve warmoadgens statistikuri modelirebisa da prognozirebis

obieqts.

saqonlis sasicocxlo ciklebis sxvadasxva etapebi _ saqonlis

bazarze gayvana, zrda, simwife da Cavardna SeiZleba modelirebul iqnes

Sesabamisi konfiguraciis mrudiT, ufro xSirad paraboloiduriT .

ciklebis cvla sabazro ekonomikis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi

Tvisebaa. aRmavloba iwvevs gajerebas, gasaRebis krizissa da depresias,

romelic, Tavis mxriv, gadadis gamococxlebaSi da cikli meordeba

mravaljer.

amasTan, aRsaniSnavia, rom ciklebis klasifikacia, maTi

Tanmimdevroba da xangrZlivoba sxvadasxva ekonomikur pirobebSi ar aris

erTiani. ciklebi gansxvavdeba xangrZlivobiT. magaliTad, gamoiyofa

ocwliani ciklebi , romelic ganpirobebulia warmoebis sferoSi



165

kvlavwarmoebiT struqturaSi momxdari ZvrebiTa da ekonomikuri politikis

cvlilebebiT; jangleris ciklis (7-10 weli) warmoSobas ganapirobebs

fulad-sakredito faqtorebis urTierTmoqmedeba; katCinis cikli (3-5 weli)

warmoiSoba maragis brunvadobis dinamikis safuZvelze; kerZo sameurneo

ciklebi (1-dan 12 wlamde) ganpirobebulia investiciuri aqtiurobis

meryeobiT.

harvardis skolis klasikuri ciklebi Semdegnairi xasiaTisaa

(sasaqonlo bazris mixedviT):

depresia ; sasaqonlo bazris aqtiuroba sustdeba, fasebs gaaCniaT

Semcirebis tendencia;

gamococxleba ; sasaqonlo warmoebasa da vaWrobaSi iwyeba zrda;

aRmavloba ; sasaqonlo bazarze saqmiani aqtiurobis tempi maRldeba,

fasebi ganagrZoben zrdas;

inflacia; warmoebisa da vaWrobis zrdis SeCereba, saqonlis fasebi

anelebs zrdas;

krizisi; samrewvelo da savaWro saqmianoba kvdeba (iyineba),

kontraqtebi ara umcires 50 %-isa ar realizdeba, miwodeba ar

nazRaurdeba, izrdeba sasaqonlo maragi, fasebi ecema.

cnobili amerikeli ekonomisti k. mitCeli gamoyofs oTx koniun-

qturul cikls: gamococxleba, aRmavloba, krizi, likvidacia.

aRniSnuli ciklebi moqmedebas iSviaTad avlenen `wminda saxiT~,

TaviaTi sisrulisa da Tanmimdevrobis mixedviT.

ciklurobis gamovlenis meTodika SemdegSi mdgomareobs. kerZod,

airCeva is sabazro maCveneblebi, romlebic ufro met ryevadobas avlenen

da igeba maTi dinamikuri mwkrivebi xangrZlivi periodisaTvis. TiToeul

maTganSi gamoiricxeba trendi , romelic asaxavs zrdis an Semcirebis

erTian tendencias (`saukunovani moZraoba~), agreTve sezonuri meryeobebi .

narCeni mwkrivebi ki, romlebic asaxaven marto koniunqturul an wminda

SemTxveviT ryevebs, standartizdeba, e.i. moiyvaneba erT mniSvnelamde,

racuzrunvelyofs maT Sesadarisobas. Semdeg dgindeba maCvenebelTa



166

sinqronuloba da urTierTkavSiri(korelaciis koeficientebis

gaangariSebis meSveobiT). mravali kavSiris ganzomilebis uzrunvelyofa

miiRweva maCvenebelTa erTgvarovan klasterul jgufebad dayofiT .

grafikze klasteruli Sefasebebis gadatanam unda aCvenos ZiriTadi

sabazro procesebis cvlilebis Tanmimdevroba da koniunqturuli ciklebis

fazebis mixedviT maTi moZraoba.

maRalganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikur literaturaSi

damuSavebulia mravalfaqtoruli statistikuri prognozuli modeli,

romelmac ekonomikuri barometris saxelwodeba miiRo. masSi Setanilia

bazris ganviTarebis donis maxasiaTebel faqtorTa nakrebi.

bunebrivia, rom sasaqonlo bazari warmoadgens sabazro ekonomikis

Semadgenel nawils da igi Seiswavleba ara marto izolirebulad, aramed

sabazro ekonomikis sxva komponentebTan kompleqsSic. magram ekonomikuri

barometris tipis mravalfaqtoruli modelis ageba, rogorc gamocdilebam

aCvena, ar amowuravs bazris mdgomareobisa da ganviTarebis (cvlilebis)

integrirebuli daxasiaTebis problemebs mravali gauTvaliswinebeli

SemTxveviTi da gamouvleneli faqtorebis moqmedebis gamo.

amave dros, aseTi saxis modeli saSualebas iZleva kompleqsurad

Sefasdes bazris ganviTarebis kanonzomiereba, paralelurad xdeba

dinamikuri mwkrivis iseT Semadgenel nawilebad dayofa, rogoricaa: trendi

(saerTo tendencia); Sidawliuri (sezonuri); cikluri (xangrZlivi da

swrafi) da danarCeni (SemTxveviTi) ryevebi.

4.7. moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikurobis gazomvis

statistikuri meTodebi

moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikuroba warmoadgens specifikur

sabazro movlenas da ganpirobebulia bazris kanonis moqmedebiT.

moTxovnis elastikurobis arsi mdgomareobs imaSi, rom igi

gansakuTrebiT moqnili da cvalebadia sxvadasxva socialur-ekonomikuri



167

faqtorebis, gansakuTrebiT fasebisa da fuladi Semosavlebis zemoqmedebis

gamo.

analogiuri Tvisebebis matarebelia sasaqonlo miwodeba, romelic

mgrZnobiared reagirebs fasebis cvlilebebze.

garegani faqtorebis zegavlenaze miwodebisa da moTxovnis

mgrZnobiarobis fenomens swavlulma ekonomistebma jer kidev XIX

saukuneSi miaqcies yuradReba. kerZod, frangma mecnierma o. kurnom gamoTqva

mosazreba, rom garkveuli azriT moTxovna warmoadgens fasebis funqcias.

es idea ganaviTara ingliselma mkvlevarma a. marSalma, romelmac igi

formulis saxiT Camoayaliba:

D=f (p)

(4.22)

sadac D aris moTxovna;

P _ fasi.

magram mkvlevrebma maSinve miaqcies yuradReba imas, rom moTxovna

calkeul saqonelze damokidebulia ara marto am saqonlis fasze, aramed

sxva saqonlis fasebzec. XIX saukunis 80-ian wlebSi Sveicarielma

swavlulma ekonomistma l. valram kurnos pirveladi gantolebis

safuZvelze wamoayena moTxovnis elastikurobis Tavisi varianti, romelic

gamoxata Semdegi formuliT:

)P,...P,P,P,P(f d n321xx (4.23)

sadac xd aris moTxovna X saqonelze;

xP _ X saqonelis fasi;

n1 P...P _ danarCeni saqonlis fasebi.

aRsaniSnavia, rom am ideaze dafuZnebuli jvaredini elastikurobis

Teoria kurno-marSalis Sexedulebebi SemdgomSi ganviTarebuli iqna sxva

mkvlevrebis mier, romlebmac elastikurobis cnebaSi Semoitanes

Semosavlis faqtori.



168

èkonomiksis~ avtori p. samuelsoni moTxovnis elastikurobas

fasebze damokidebulebiT ganixilavs, rogorc Sesyiduli saqonlis

raodenobis reaqciis dones sabazro fasebis meryeobaze.

moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikuroba warmoadgens reagirebas

bazarze momxdar socialur-ekonomikuri pirobebis cvlilebaze.

elastikurobis zoma statistikurma mecnierebam gansazRvra iseTi

raodenobiTi maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa: elastikurobis koeficienti .

elastikurobis koeficianti aris erTi niSnis (Sedegobrivi)

procentuli cvlileba meore niSnis (faqtoruli) erTi procentiT

gadidebisas (cvlilebisas).

a. marSalma gamoiyvana elastikurobis empiruli koeficientis

formula Semdegi saxiT:

y

x

x

y

(4.24)

sadac y aris moTxovnis mateba

x _ faqtoruli niSnis mateba;

y _ moTxovnis sabazo maCvenebeli;

x _ faqtoruli niSnis sabazo maCvenebeli.zogjer arniSnuli formula gamoisaxeba SefardebaTa warmoebulis

saxiT, zogjer ki _ procentuli cvlilebebis saxiT:

x

y:

x

y

,

x

x

y

y

, (4.25)

rodesac 1 vlindeba infraelastikurobis movlena, saqoneli

iTvleba mcireelastikur an araelastikur saqonlad; rodesac 1

aRiniSneba ultraelastikurobis movlena da saqoneli warmoadgens

elastikurs an Zlier elastikurs; rodesac 1 , maSin saqoneli

sustelastikuria (e. w. unitaruli moTxovna), am SemTxvevaSi, rogorc wesi,

fasebis Semcirebas ar mosdevs komerciuli efeqti (fuladi amonagebis

zrda).



169

elastikurobis koeficientis dadebiTi mniSvneloba niSnavs, rom

faqtoruli niSnis gadidebisas moTxovna izrdeba, e.i. kavSiri pirdapiria

(aseTi damokidebuleba aRiniSneba Semosavlebze damokidebulebiT);

uaryofiTi mniSvneloba ki niSnavs, rom faqtoruli niSnis gadidebisas

moTxovna mcirdeba, e. i. kavSiri arapirdapiria (aseTi damokidebuleba

aRiniSneba fasebze damokidebulebiT (igulisxmeba fasebis zrda).

amasTan, mxedvelobaSi unda iqnes miRebuli, rom arsebobs zogierTi

saqoneli, romelic sxvanairad reagirebs fasebisa da Semosavlebis

cvlilebaze. magaliTad, Semosavlebis zrda iwvevs moTxovnis Semcirebas

dabali samomxmareblo Tvisebebis (xarisxis) saqonelze.

praqtikul gaangariSebebSi elastikurobis koeficienti SeiZleba

gamoiTvalos dinamikaSi da statikaSi, e. i. asaxavs moTxovnis cvlilebas an

droSi, an erTobliobis romelime sxva erTeulTan SedarebiT (magaliTad,

moTxovna sxvadasxva samomxmareblo jgufebis, sxvadasxva regionebis da a.

S.). pirvel SemTxvevaSi formula transformirdeba Semdegnairad:

ymat xmat T T x

x x

y

y y::

0

01

0

01

, (4.26)

sadac 0y da 1y aris saSedego niSani (moTxovna) Sesabamisad sabaziso da

mimdinare periodSi;

0x da 1x _ faqtoruli niSani Sesabamisad sabaziso da mimdinare

periodSi.

statikaSi (Cveulebriv dajgufebis monacemebiT) es formula

Semdegnairad gamoiyureba (calkeuli i-uri jgufis mixedviT):

1

1

1

1 :

n

n

nn

nn

x

y

x x

y y, (4.27)

sadac n y aris moTxovna dasaxasiaTebel jgufSi;

1ny _ moTxovna winamorbed jgufSi;

nx , 1nx , _ faqtoruli niSnebi n-ur jgufSi, winamorbed n-1-ur

jgufSi.



170

yvela jgufis mixedviT elastikurobis saerTo koeficienti

gaiangariSeba rogorc Sewonili saSualo ariTmetikuli:

n

i

i

n

i

ii

W

W

, (4.28)

sadac aris elastikurobis saSualo koeficieti;

i _ elastikurobis jgufuri koeficienti;

iW _ calkeulii-uri jgufebis wonebi;

n_ jgufebis ricxvi (pirvelis garda).

elastikurobis jgufuri koeficientis gaangariSebas didi

mniSvneloba aqvs, radgan sxvadasxva socialur-ekonomikuri jgufebis

moTxovna sxvadasxvanairad reagirebs erTsa da imave faqtorze. kerZod,

mcire Semosavliani momxmareblebisaTvis fasebis 1%-iT zrda iwvevs

moTxovnis mniSvnelovan Semcirebas, maSin, roca maRalSemosavlianma

ojaxebma SeiZleba saerTod ar gaakeTon reagireba fasebis aseT zrdaze.

jer kidev gasuli saukunis 80-ian wlebSi germaneli ekonomistis e.

engelis mier dadgenil iqna, rom ojaxis Semosavlebis zrdasTan erTad,

danaxarjebi kvebaze izrdeba absoluturad, magram mcirdeba SefardebiTad.

analogiuri kanoni, romelic dakavSirebulia sacxovreblis

danaxarjebis elastikurobasTan, formulirebul iqna XIX saukunis meore

naxevarSi aseve germaneli ekonomistis a. Svabes mier, romlis Tanaxmadac,

ojaxis Semosavlebis zrdasTan erTad misi danaxarjebic sacxovrebelze

izrdeba absoluturad, magram mcirdeba SefardebiTad.

moTxovnaze fasis gavlenis veqtori ukudamokidebulebaSi imyofeba

Semosavlis gavlenis veqtorTan . magram am wess ramdenime gamonaklisi aqvs.jer erTi, elastikurobaze moqmedebs saqonlis sargeblianobis xarisxi

(done), anu misi adgili moTxovnaTa ierarqiaSi. rac ufro mniSvnelovania

saqoneli moxmarebisTvis, miT ufro naklebelastikuria igi.



171

Tumca arsebobs movlena, wodebuli jifenis paradoqsad: ramdenad

ufro Zviria puri, miT ufro yiduloben mas. fasebis zrda, pirvel rigSi,

amcirebs moTxovnas maRalxarisxovan, magram ZviradRirebul im saqonelze,

romelic moTxovnilebaTa pirveli jgufis saqonelTa ricxvSi ar imyofeba.

fasebis zrdisas mas yiduloben naklebad, vidre es elastikurobis

moTxovniTaa gaTvaliswinebuli, xolo mis magivrad yiduloben pirveli

moTxovnilebis saqonels. es niSnavs, rom moTxovnaSi xdeba erTi saqonlis

Senacvleba meore saqonliT.

Senacvlebis efeqti vlindeba imaSi, rom fasebis Semcireba mas xdis

ufro maRal, xolo fasebis zrda _ ufro dabal konkurentunarians. amas

mivyavarT iqamde, rom, pirvel SemTxvevaSi, igi aviwrovebs sxva saqonels,

xolo meore SemTxvevaSi, TviTon ganicdis Seviwrovebas (gamodevnas) ufro

iafi saqonlisagan.

meore mxriv, vlindeba e. w. vebelenis paradoqsis moqmedeba . am dros

fufunebis sagnebi iyideba ara maTi samomxmareblo Tvisebebis, aramed maTi

socialuri mniSvnelobis gamo, kerZod, prestiJulobis, modis da a.S.

ufro metic, cnobili amerikeli ekonomistisa da sociologis

maslous moTxovnaTa ierarqiaSi TviTdamkvidrebisa da TviTgamoxatulebis

moTxovnileba, mis mier SemoTavazebuli Teoriis mixedviT, moTxovnilebis

motivaciis piramidis mwvervalze imyofeba. es agreTve dasturdeba

samamulo praqtikiT. cnobili ekonomisti r. badueni Tvlis, rom jifenis

efeqti warmoSobilia siRaribiT, xolo vebelenis efeqti _ simdidriT.

inflaciis pirobebSi ufro saimedod iTvleba moTxovnis

elastikurobis modelireba fasebis SefardebiT donesTan

damokidebulebiT, romelic gamosaxulia saSualo SemosavliT:

R P f D , (4.29)

sadac D aris moTxovna

P _ fasi;

R _ momxmarebelTa saSualo Semosavali.



172

moTxovnis struqturis elastikuroba, fasismieri faqtoris

zemoqmedebiT, erTi saqonlis mier meoris Seviwroeba atarebsjvaredini

elastiurobis saxelwodebas.

arsebobs misi gamovlenis sxvadsxva meTodi. ufro gavrcelebulia

jvaredini elastikurobis Semdegi empiruli koeficienti:

y

x

y

xy,x

P

P:

q

q

, (4.30)

sadac y,x aris moTxovnis jvaredini elastikurobis koeficienti;

xq _ moTxovnis mateba x saqonelze;

yq _ moTxovnis mateba y saqonelze;

yP _ y saqonlis fasi;

xP _ x saqonlis fasi

elastikurobis empiruli koeficientis erT-erT naklovanebas

warmoadgens is, rom am dros xorcieldeba moTxovnaze moqmedi yvela

faqtoris ignorireba da iTvleba, rom moTxovnis cvlileba

ganpirobebulia mxolod erTi faqtoruli niSniT. maSin, rodesac

praqtikulad moTxovnis cvlilebaze erTdroulad mravali faqtori axdens

gavlenas. amasTan, moTxovnisa da sabazro sxva faqtorebis kavSiri, rogorc

wesi, arsebobs ara funqciuri, aramed albaTur-korelaciuri.

elastikurobis koeficientis maCvenebelTa gaangariSeba mWidrod

unda iyos dakavSirebuli urTierTkavSirebis modelirebasTan regresiis

wyviladi da mravalfaqtorul gantolebaTa meSveobiT. am SemTxvevaSi

marSalis elastikurobis empiruli koeficientis formula gardaiqmneba

alen-boulis elastikurobis Teoriul koeficientad. moTxovnisa da

fasebis urTierTkavSirze masobrivi monacemebis gamokvlevisas

elastikurobis koeficienti iRebs Semdeg saxes:

y

x

x

ylim

0x

, (4.31)



173

xolo radgan x

y

x

0

lim aris )( x f

d

d

y

x , e.i. X mixedviT y pirveli

warmoebuli funqcia, romelic gamoisaxeba simboliT y , maSin

elastikurobis Teoriuli koeficienti iRebs saxes:

, x y

x y

(4.32)

sadac xy _saSedego niSnis gaTanabrebuli mniSvneloba, e.i. damokidebulebis

gamoxatuleba:

)( x f Y

, y _Sesabamisi funqciispirveli warmoebuli.

mocemuli formula saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros elastikurobamrudis calkeuli wertilisaTvis da misi ekonomikuri interpretacia

momxmarebelTa TiToeuli jgufis moTxovnis elastikurobis daxasiaTebaSi

mdgomareobs.

Sedegobrivi da faqtoruli niSnebis saSualo mniSvnelobis

aRebisas, gansazRvruli iqneba saSualo elastikuroba. amasTan, praqtikaSi

gaTanabrebuli Sedegobrivi niSnis saSualo sidides )xy( Cveulebriv

cvlian Sedegobrivi niSnis empiruli mniSvnelobis saSualo sididiT ( y ),

ramdenadac yx da y mniSvnelobaTa jamebi unda daemTxves erTmaneTs. maSin

elastikurobis saSualo koeficientis formula miiRebs Semdeg saxes:

y

xy

(4.33)

praqtikaSi faqtobrivad myidvelobiT moTxovnaze erTdroulad

mravali faqtori moqmedebs da TiToeuli maTgani ganapirobebs moTxovnis

elastikurobis gansazRvras. amitom aucilebelia ganisazRvros moTxovnis

elastikurobis `wminda~ koeficientebi, romlebic ganTavisuflebuli iqneba

danarCeni faqtorebis gavlenisagan. am mizniT igeba regresiis

mravalfaqtoruli gantoleba, ufro xSirad ki wrfivi formis:

nn x x xb xb xba yn

...2211...1, (4.34)

sadac 1b aris regresiis koeficienti;



174

1 x _ faqtorebi.

Teoriulad elastikurobis `wminda~ koeficientebi gaiangariSeba

Semdegi formuliT:

, y xb i

ii

(4.35)

moTxovnis damokidebuleba, rogorc wesi, arawrfivia. mravali

arawrfivi mravalfaqtoruli funqciebis an Sereuli modelebis gamoyeneba

ki sakmaod rTulia,magram regresiis gantolebis wrfivi formidan advilad

SeiZleba misvla xarisxobriv funqciasTan da imis damtkicebiT, rom

moTxovnis mudmivi elastikurobis kanoni SesaZlebelia gamoisaxos Semdegi

tipis gantolebiT:

2x axy , (4.36)

maSin SeiZleba aigos multiplikaciuri xarisxobrivi mravalfaqtoruli

modeli:P

n21

n1

b

n

b

2

b

1x...x x...xaxy . (4.37)

am SemTxvevaSi elastikurobis koeficienti udris regresiis

koeficients:

ii b .

moTxovnis elastikuroba fasebze damokidebulebiT SeiZleba

ganisazRvros ara marto statistikuri aRricxvis monacemebis safuZvelze,

aramed momxmarebelTa gamokiTxvis safuZvelzec. arsebobs myidvelTa

reaqciis gamovlinebis ramdenime xerxi im SemoTavazebuli fasebis doneze,

romlebic asaxaven moTxovnis elastikurobas.

pirveli: eqspertTa jgufs esmeba kiTxva im saqonlis raodenobis

Sesaxeb, romelic SeiZleba SeZenil iqnes mocemul fasSi. kiTxva meordeba

zRvruli fasebis sxvadasxva doneebisaTvis. Sedegi asaxavs moTxovnas

Sesabamisi calkeuli fasebis mixedviT;

meore: gamoikiTxeba momxmarebelTa garkveuli raodenoba, calkeuli

respodenti asaxelebs zRvrul fass (doneTa mwkrivebi SeiZleba momzaddes

winaswar, maSin respodenti uTiTebs Sesabamis dones), bolos aigeba



175

momxmarebelTa ganawilebis mwkrivi fasebis doneebis mixedviT (sixSire _

adamianTa raodenoba, romlebmac daasaxeles erTi da igive fasi);

mesame: es xerxi meorisagan gansxvavdeba imiT, rom respodenti

uCvenebs ara marto erTeuli saqonlis SeZenis fass, aramed im fassac,

romliTac igi SeiZenda am saqonlis or an met erTeuls.

miRebuli calkeuli ganawilebis mixedviT igeba regresiuli modeli

da gaiangariSeba elastikurobis koeficienti.

nebismier saqonelze moTxovnis elastikurobis koeficientis

gaangariSebis meTodisa da xerxis optimaluri arCeva komerciul firmaSi

unda moxdes mocemuli firmisa da bazris specifikuri pirobebisa da

arsebuli situaciis gaTvaliswinebis safuZvelze.

4.8. sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri prognozirebis meTodebi

sabazro koniunqturis analizis mizani ar amoiwureba bazarze

faqtobrivad Seqmnili situaciis fiqsirebiTa da sabazro procesebis

mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebis gamovleniT. man agreTve unda uzrunvelyos

bazris ganviTarebis (cvlilebis), pirvel rigSi, moTxovnisa da miwodebis

dasabuTebuli prognozireba.

moTxovnisa da miwodebis prognozireba sabazro procesebis mizez-

Sedegobrivi kavSirebis, tendenciebisa da kanonzomierebaTa Seswavlis

safuZvelze momaval periodSi maTi ganviTarebis (cvlilebis) mecnierulad

dasabuTebuli ganWvretaa.

prognozis gaangariSebis SedarebiT martiv meTods eqstrapolacia

warmoadgens, e. i. rodesac xdeba warsulSi Camoyalibebuli tendenciebismomaval periodSi gavrceleba, magram am meTods sakmaod seriozuli

naklovanebebi (SezRudvebi) gaaCnia. is ver iTvaliswinebs sabazro

situaciis ganmsazRvrel bazarze mosalodneli cvlilebebis albaTobas.



176

amasTan, isic unda aRiniSnos, rom prognozirebis sxva meTodebic

aucileblad iyenebs warsulSi miRebul informacias momavlis winaswar

ganWvretisaTvis. miuxedavad imisa, rom firmis garegani garemo, maT Soris

bazari, sul ufro amoucnobia, sabazro procesebs mainc axasiaTebs

garkveuli inerciuloba da SedarebiT mokle periodSi ZiriTad

tendenciebs inarCunebs. amis gaTvaliswinebiT eqstrapolaciis meTodis

gamoyeneba SedarebiT ukeTes Sedegs iZleva moklevadian prognozirebaSi ,

gansakuTrebiT ki bazris im segmentebSi, sadac SedarebiT naklebi

intensivobiTa da siZlieriT warmoiSoba miwodebaze da moTxovnaze moqmedi

faqtorebi.

amave dros, farTo da grZelvadiani prognozireba aucileblad

moiTxovs im mniSvnelovani faqtorebis warmoSobis albaTobis

gaTvaliswinebas, romelic gamoiwvevs sabazro situaciis cvlilebebs. imis

gamo, rom TiTqmis SeuZlebelia sabazro faqtorebis warmoSobis drois,

siZlierisa da sxva maxasiaTeblebis zusti gansazRvra, dasaSvebadaa

miCneuli prognozirebis mravalvariantuloba.

sxvadasxva variantebis SemuSavebisas gaiTvaliswineba sabazro

pirobebis sxvadasxvanairi cvlileba da mis safuZvelze muSavdeba bazris

ganviTarebis (cvlilebebis) is gansazRvruli mimarTulebebi (orientirebi),

romelic unda iqnes miRweuli garkveuli periodisaTvis. amasTan, sabazro

procesebis prognozirebisas aucileblad gasaTvaliswinebelia

kompleqsurobis principi, romelic gulisxmobs bazris yvela ZiriTadi

parametrebis erTdroulad prognozirebas, radgan isini mWidro

urTierTkavSirSi imyofebian da erTmaneTs ganapirobeben.

prognozi Tavisi momcvelobis mixedviT SeiZleba iyos globaluri,

regionuli da lokaluri , rac imas niSnavs, rom bazarma SeiZleba moicvasmTeli mocemuli qveyana da sazRvargareTis erTi an ramdenime saxelmwifo,

mocemuli qveynis romelime lokaluri regioni, an mocemuli lokaluri

regionis nawili, romelzedac romelime firmaa gasuli.



177

prognozma SeiZleba agreTve moicvas romelime saxeobis

funqcionaluri bazari, rogoricaa: samomxmareblo saqonlis bazari,

firmaTa (sawarmoTa) bazari (samrewvelo daniSnulebis saqonlis bazari,

romelic daniSnulia sxva saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebisaTvis, anu

warmoebis saSualebaTa bazari) da sxv.

sabazro koniunqturis prognozi agreTve gansxvavdeba winaswar-

Wvretis vadebis mixedviT. amis Sesabamisad, prognozi pirobiTad iyofa

Semdeg saxeobebad:

operatiuli prognozi, romlis vadaa dekada, Tve, kvartali, naxevari

weli;

moklevadiani prognozi, romelic grZeldeba erTi wlis manZilze;

saSualovadiani prognozi, romelic moicavs 1-dan 5 wlamde periods;

xangrZlivvadiani prognozi, anu perspeqtiuli prognozi, moicavs 5

welze met periods.

prognozi SeiZleba iyos:

wertilovani, rodesac prognozirebis Sedegi gamoixateba erTi donis

saxiT;

intervaluri da mravalfaqtoruli, rodesac Sedegi warmodgenilia

intervalis an varirebadi sididis saxiT.

prognozis sizuste damokidebulia:

sabazro procesebisa da faqtorebis amsaxveli im informaciis

utyuarobasa da sisruleze, romelic gansazRvravs bazris

cvlilebebs da ZiriTad tendenciebs;

bazris mdgomareobisa da qveynis ekonomikis doneze (radgan rac

ufro mdgradia bazari da Zlieria ekonomika, miT ufro zusti

prognozis gakeTebaa SesaZlebeli);

saprognozo modelis adekvaturobaze (anu modelis saxeobis sworad

SerCevaze);

prognozis gakeTebis teqnikuri SeiaraRebis doneze, programis

xarisxze, algoriTmebze da a.S.).



178

arsebobs prognozirebis sxvadasxva xerxi da meTodi, romelTagan

moTxovnisa da miwodebis prognozirebaSi ufro xSirad gamoiyeneba Semdegi :

analogiuri modelebi , rodesac prognozis gasakeTeblad gamoiyeneba

mocemul qveyanaSi an regionSi ukve arsebuli sabazro situaciis

maCveneblebi;

imitaciuri modelebi, rodesac realuri monacemebis magivrad

gamoiyeneba specialur programiTa da egm-is gamoyenebiT agebuli

modelebi. imitacia aris realuri sistemis adgilas modelis

dayenebis praqtikuli xerxi. am modelze eqsperimentiT SeiZleba

dadgindes, Tu rogor reagirebas moaxdens igi gansazRvrul sabazro

cvlilebebze an mdgomareobaze. es maSin, roca realobaSi amis

gakeTeba SeuZlebelia;

normatiuli, anu racionalizebuli prognozuli gaangariSebebi , roca

prognozi keTdeba racionaluri biujetidan an moxmarebis

dasabuTebuli normebidan gamomdinare;

prognozireba eqspertuli Sefasebebis safuZvelze ;

eqstrapolaciis meTodebi : dinamikuri mwkrivebis mosworebis

teqnikuri da meqanikuri xerxebi, trenduli modelis ageba;

statistikuri modelirebis meTodebi (regresiis mravalfaqtoruli

gantolebebi);

prognozireba elastikurobis koeficientebis gamoyenebis safuZvelz e.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saxeobebis mixedviT myidvelobiTi

moTxovnis statistikuri gamokvlevebisa da prognozirebis praqtikaSi

gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva tipis maTematikuri modelebi , romelTa SerCevisas

gaiTvaliswineba mocemuli bazris cvlilebebis (ganviTarebis) xasiaTTan da

kanonzomierebebTan misi Sesabamisoba.

funqciaTa SerCeva damokidebulia sabazro koniunqturis winaswari

gamokvlevis Sedegebsa da konkretul pirobebze, saqonlis saxeobaze,

bazris segmentis Taviseburebebze da a. S.



179

msoflio praqtikaSi farTod gamoiyeneba torkvistis formula , 1-li

gamoiyeneba kvebis produqtebze moTxovnis modelirebisaTvis, xolo me-3

fufunebis sagnebze moTxovnis modelirebisaTvis.

moTxovna mTel rig arasasursaTo saqonelze ganisazRvreba

xarisxiani funqciiT , xolo moTxovnis saerTo kanonzomierebani xSirad

gamoisaxeba gompercis mrudiT . moTxovnaze Semosavlis gavlenis

Seswavlisas SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes logistikuri mrudi

(sigmoidaluri mrudi). moTxovnis zrdis Caqrobis procesi maRali

Semosavlis mqone mosaxleobis jgufebSi gadasvlisas warmatebiT

gamoisaxeba naxevarlogariTmuli funqciiT .

xSirad sabazro situaciis prognozi keTdeba mravalfaqtoruli

modelirebis meSveobiT, am dros gauTvaliswinebeli faqtorebis

akumulirebisa da avtoregresiis aRmosafxvrelad dinamikuri mwkrivebis

safuZvelze agebul modelSi SeyavT drois faqtori:

....~12211...1t b xb xba y nt x x n

(4.38)

aRniSnul SemTxvevebSi siZneles warmoadgens is, rom moTxovnis

ganviTareba (cvlileba) iSviaTadaa wrfivi (sworxazovani). xSirad misi

kanonzomierebani gamoixateba mrudwiruli (mrudxazovani) fuqnciebiT,

Tumca Sereuli mravalfaqtoruli modelis ageba erTob rTulia. imisaTvis,

rom Tavidan aviciloT modelis wrfiuloba, xdeba misi yvela wevris

galogariTmeba, e. i. igeba mravalfaqtoruli gantoleba xarisxiani an

maCvenebliani funqciis mixedviT:

n21

n1

x

n

x

2

x

1x...x b... baby~ , (4.39)

n21

n1

b

n

b

2

b

1x...x x...xaxy~ ,

prognozirebis mniSvnelovan moments warmoadgens prognozis

saimedoobis da sizustis Semowmeba. bolo etapze gaiangariSeba prognozis

Secdoba, anu misi faqtobrivi donidan gadaxra. prognozis xarisxis

sazomad gamoiyeneba maCvenebeli:



180

q p

pC

, (4.40)

sadac p aris damtkicebuli prognozirebis raodenoba, e. i. sworad

gakeTebuli prognozirebis raodenoba;q _ daumtkicebeli prognozirebis raodenoba.

maSasadame, am wesis Tanaxmad, prognozis saimedoobis, anu

verifikaciis Semowmeba xdeba misi faqtobriv SedegebTan Sedarebis

meSveobiT .

magram Zalian mniSvnelovania Semowmeba ganxorcieldes ara

saprognozo vadis damTavrebis Semdeg, aramed TviT prognozis Sedgenis

procesSi.

am mizniT gamoiyeneba inversiuli verifikaciis meTodi , romelic

xorcieldeba retrospeqtuli prognozirebis gziT . es niSnavs, rom

prognozuli modelis sisworis Semowmeba xdeba ukve gasuli periodis

prognozis SedgeniT da misi faqtobriv monacemebTan SedarebiT.

aseve arsebobs teilis meTodi, romelic prognozis Secdomis

Sefasebis saSualebas saprognozo vadis dadgomamde iZleva. gaangariSeba

xdeba Semdegi formuliT:

t

n

t

2

tt

A

)AP(

V

, (4.41)

sadac Pt da t aris Sesabamisad koniunqturis Sesaswavli maCveneblis

tendenciis (cvlilebis) prognozuli da faqtobrivi mniSvnelobebi;

V _ prognozis saimedoobis maCvenebeli.

Tu V=0, maSin prognozi absoluturad zustia. Tu V=1, niSnavs, rom

prognozi axloa ubralo eqstrapolaciasTan, Tu V>1-ze, maSin prognozi

iZleva uares Sedegs, vidre mocemuli movlenis ucvlelad datoveba.



181

Tema 5. safinanso-sabanko statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

- monetaruli da sabanko statistikis arsi da amocanebi; fuladi

agregatebi da maTi statistikuri Seswavlis meTodebi;- fiskaluri statistikis arsi da amocanebi sabiujeto – sagadasaxado

Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis daegSi; biujetis proficitisa da

deficitis gamovlenis meTodebi;

- kreditis tatistikuri Seswavlis maCveneblebi;

- sadazRvevo miznebis statistikuri maCveneblebi;

- inflaciis cneba da maTi gaangariSebis meTodebi; deflatoris

koeficientebi da maTi gaangariSebis statistikuri xerxebi;

- safinanso birJis da fasiani qaRaldebis statistikuri maCveneblebi;

- savaluto bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi; savaluto kursis saxeebi;

- valutis gacvliTi kursis statistikuri maCveneblebi.

5.1. ganmartebebi da mokle meToduri miTiTebebi

5.1. saxelmwifo finansebis statistika

saxelmwifo finansebis statistika iTvaliswinebs saxelmwifo

biujetis Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis analizs, pirvel rigSi

Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis struqturis gansazRvras. amisaTvis

iyenebs struqturis SefardebiT sidides da Semosulobebis (an

gadasaxdelebis) TiToeuli muxlisaTvis gansazRvravs xvedriT wils.

kerZod, yoveli muxlis moculoba procentulad unda SevafardoT

Semosavlebis (an xarjebis) saerTo moculobasTan. garda amisa, saWiroa

biujetis Sesrulebis xarisxis analizi, rogorc biujetis saerTo

moculobis aseve Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis calkeuli muxlebismixedviT. amisaTvis ki gamoiyeneba gegmis Sesrulebis SefardebiTi sidide,

romlis drosac faqtiuri Sesrulebis procentuli SefardebiT biujetis

moculobasTan vRebulobT Sesrulebis xarisxis maCvenebels.



182

saxelmwifo biujetis statistikuri Seswavla iTvaliswinebs aseve

biujetis Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis dinamikur analizs.

amisaTvis yvelaze martivi saSualeba aris dinamikis SefardebiTi

sidideebis gaangariSeba.

saxelmwifo biujetis statistikuri analizis dros metad

mniSvnelovan sakiTxs warmoadgens Semosavlebis yvelaze mTavari muxlebis

– sagadasaxado Semosavlebis statistikuri analizi, romlisaTvisac

saWiroa gadasaxadebis indeqsebis gamoyeneba.

radgan sagadasaxado Semosavlebis moculoba gadasaxadebis

saprocento ganakveTebisa da sagadasaxado Semosavlebis sididis namravlis

tolia, e. i. CB H , amitom sagadasaxado Semosavlebis indeqsi saprocento

ganakveTebisa da sagadasaxado Semosavlebis sididis indeqsTa namravliT

miiReba, e. i.:

BC H I I I . (5.1)

Tavis mxriv,0

1

C

C I C

, xolo0

1

B

B I

B ,

sadac, C1 da C0 aris Sesabamisad mimdinare da sabaziso periodSi

sagadasaxado ganakveTi, xolo B1 da B0 saangariSo da sabaziso

periodebSi sagadasaxado Semosavlebis sidide.

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo finansebi aRiricxeba sabiujeto sistemis

ZiriTadi doneebis – saxelmwifo biujetis, avtonomiuri respublikebisa da

adgilobrivi biujetebis mixedviT. saxelmwifo biujeti – saqarTvelos

parlamentis mier damtkicebuli saqarTvelos centraluri xelisuflebis

Semosulobebis, agreTve misi funqciebisa da valdebulebebis Sesrulebis

mizniT gasawevi gadasaxdelebisa da naSTis cvlilebis erTobliobaa.

biujetis Semosulobebia: Semosavlebi – gadasaxadebi, grantebi, sxva

Semosavlebi, arafinansuri aqtivebi (arafinansuri aqtivebiT operaciebidan

miRebuli saxsrebi), finansuri aqtivebi (finansuri aqtivebiT operaciebidan



183

miRebuli saxsrebi, naSTis gamoyenebis garda), valdebulebebi

(valdebulebebis aRebis Sedegad miRebuli saxsrebi).

biujetis gadasaxdelebia saangariSo periodSi biujetidan gasacemi

fuladi saxsrebis erToblioba. maT miekuTvneba: xarjebi, arafinansuri

aqtivebi (arafinansuri aqtivebiT operaciebze mimarTuli saxsrebi),

finansuri aqtivebi (finansuri aqtivebiT operaciebze mimarTuli saxsrebi,

naSTis dagrovebis garda), valdebulebebi (valdebulebebis ZiriTadi

nawilis dafarvaze mimarTuli saxsrebi).

biujetis proficiti da deficiti:

1. biujetis Semosavlebsa da xarjebs Soris sxvaoba aris biujetissaoperacio saldo, xolo saoperacio saldosa da arafinansuri aqtivebis

cvlilebas Soris sxvaoba – biujetis mTliani saldo;

2. dadebiTi mTliani saldo aris biujetis proficiti, xolo uaryofiTi

mTliani saldo – deficiti.

saxelmwifo biujetis statistikis ZiriTad amocanebs warmoadgens:

• biujetis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis maCveneblebis dadgena;

• saxelmwifo biujetis Semosavlebis struqturis gansazRvra;

• saxelmwifo biujetis xarjebis struqturis gansazRvra;

• biujetis deficitis dafinansebis wyaroebis an proficitis gamoyenebis

mimarTulebebis dadgena;

• sagareo saxelmwifo valis moculobis dadgena.

statistika saxelmwifo biujets axasiaTebs sxvadasxva absoluturi

da SefardebiTi maCveneblebiT.

saxelmwifo biujetis statistikis absolutur maCveneblebs miekuTvneba:

Semosavlebi (grantebis CaTvliT);

xarjebi;



184

Semosavlebis mateba xarjebze (saoperacio saldo);

arafinansuri aqtivebis cvlileba;

MmTliani saldo (deficiti/ proficiti);

finansuri aqtivebis cvlileba; valdebulebebis cvlileba;

saqarTvelos sagadasaxado kodeqsis Tanaxmad, biujetis saSemosavlo

nawilis formirebis ZiriTad wyaroebad iTvleba:

saSemosavlo gadasaxadi;

mogebis gadasaxadi;

damatebuli Rirebulis gadasaxadi;

aqcizi;

qonebis gadasaxadi;

importis gadasaxadi.

biujetis xarjviTi nawili iTvaliswinebs iseTi saxis sferoebis da-

finansebas, rogoricaa:

• saerTo daniSnulebis saxelmwifo momsaxureba;

• Tavdacva;

• sazogadoebrivi wesrigi da uSiSroeba;• ekonomikuri saqmianoba (soflis meurneoba, transporti da a.S.);

• garemos dacva;

• sabinao-komunaluri meurneoba;

• janmrTelobis dacva;

• dasveneba, kultura da religia;

• ganaTleba;

• socialuri dacva da sxv.grantebi - es aris usasyidlo aradabrunebadi, arasavaldebulo

Semosavlebi, romelsac aqvs araregularuli, erTdrouli, nebayoflobiTi

xasiaTis subvenciisa da reparaciis saxe. mocemuli finansuri nakadi

Semoedineba saxelmwifo marTvis dawesebulebebidan an saerTaSoriso

organizaciebidan.



185

biujetis deficitis dafinansebis wyaroebia:

saSinao dafinanseba:

• saxelmwifo fasiani qaRaldebis gamoSveba (garda aqciebisa);

• finansuri aqtivebiT operaciebidan miRebuli saxsrebi;

sagareo dafinanseba:

• saxelmwifo fasiani qaRaldebis gamoSveba (garda aqciebisa);

• saerTaSoriso safinanso organizaciebis krediti;

• ucxouri saxelmwifoebis mTavrobis mier saqarTvelosadmi gamoyofili

kreditebi;

• sxva saxis dafinanseba.

drois garkveul manZilze biujetis deficitis dasafinansebladmoziduli saxelmwifo valdebulebebis erToblioba warmoadgens

saxelmwifo vals. saxelmwifo vali warmoadgens xelisuflebis organoebis

valdebulebas iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis, ucxo saxelmwifoebis,

saerTaSoriso organizaciebis da saerTaSoriso samarTlis sxva subieqte-

bis mimarT. rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, sagareo valis statistikis amocanebia

misi zomisa da masStabebis, struqturisa da dinamikis dadgena.

yvela donis biujetis Sesrulebis analizi xorcieldeba: biujetis

ZiriTadi maCveneblebis (Semosavlebi, xarjebi da a. S.) mixedviT gegmis

Sesrulebis SefardebiTi maCveneblebis safuZvelze.

arsebobs biujetis sxvadasxva saxeebi maT Soris naerTi, saxelmwifo

da teritoriuli erTeulebis biujeti. ESegviZlia gamovyoT biujetis

Semosavlebis 3 wyaro: gadasaxadebi grantebi da sxva Semosavlebi.

saxelmwifos fiskaluri ekonomikuri politikis gatarebis ZiriTadi

instrumenti sagadasaxado sistemaa. DdRes moqmedi kanonmdeblobiT

sagadasaxado sistema moicavs Semdeg gadasaxadebs:

_gadasaxadi Semosavalze, mogebaze da kapitalis Rirebulebis zrdaze:

saSemosavlo gadasaxadi;

mogebis gadasaxadi;

_ sayovelTao gadasaxadebi saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze:



186

damatebuli Rirebulebis gadasaxadi;

aqcizi;

_gadasaxadebi sagareo vaWrobasa da sagareo-ekonomikur operaciebze:

importis gadasaxadi;_ gadasaxadi sakuTrebaze:

Qqonebis gadasaxadi;

_ sxva gadasaxadebi;

arsebobs saxelmwifo da adgilobrivi, pirdapiri da iribi, saerTo da

specialuri (gamoyenebis niSnis mixedviT), fiqsirebuli, progresuli,

regresuli (sagadamxdelo ganakveTebis mixedviT).

sagadasaxado statistikis amocanebia gadasaxadebis moculobis,

struqturis, dinamikis, gadasaxadebze moqmedi faqtorebis Seswavla da

prognozireba.

Ddinamikis dasaxasiaTeblad statistika iyenebs saindeqso meTods,

romlis safuZvelzec angariSobs sagadasaxao Semosavlebis saerTo indeqss.

sagadasaxo Semosavlebis saerTo indeqsi aigeba:

00

11

q

qq

(5.2)

sagadasaxado bazebis indeqsi aigeba:

00

01

q

qq

(5.3)

sagadasaxo ganakveTebis indeqsi aigeba:

01

11

q

q

am indeqsebs Soris arsebobs Semdegi urTierTkavSiri:



187

00

01

q

q

01

11

q

q

00

11

q

q

(5.4)

e. i. q q

absolutur maCvenebelTa safuZvelze SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes

Semdegi saxis SefardebiTi statistikuri maCveneblebi, romlebic

axasiaTeben saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris saqmianobis ekonomikur Sedegebs:

1. saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris xarjebis wili gaiangariSeba

saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris xarjebis SefardebiT erovnul

produqtTan;2. gadasaxadebis wili gaiangariSeba gadasaxadiT dabegrili

saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris xarjebis SefardebiT erovnul

produqtTan;

3. gadasaxadebisa da mosakreblebis wili – gadasaxadisa da

socdazRvevis anaricxebis SefardebiT erovnul produqtTan.

saerTaSoriso SedarebebisaTvis gamoiyeneba saxelmwifo biujetis

deficitis ara absoluturi, aramed SefardebiTi done, romelic SeiZleba

gaangariSebul iqnes sxvadasxva meTodiT.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis (ssf) rekomendaciebiT, deficitis

SefardebiTi sidide gaiangariSeba, rogorc deficitis absoluturi

sididis Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan. deficitis normatiuli

sidide mSp-sTan Seadgens 3%. is gamoiyeneba ssf-is mier kreditebis

gacemisa da ssf-Si qveynebis wevrad miRebisas.

aranakleb mniSvnelovania saxelmwifo valis statistikuri

maCveneblebis gaangariSeba.

saxelmwifo valis momsaxureba xorcieldeba procentebis gadaxdisa

da sesxis ZiriTadi Tanxis dafarviT.

sesxis wliuri momsaxurebis sidide SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes

Semdegi formulis safuZvelze:



188

,21 D D D (5.5)

sadac 1 D - aris sesxze daricxuli procentis sidide;

2 D - dafaruli ZiriTadi sesxis sidide.

statistika gansazRvravs momsaxurebis moculobas Semdegi

formuliT:

,21

Э

D D K

(5.6)

sadac Э aris qveynis saeqsporto sargeblis sidide.

M meore meTodi momsaxurebis moculobis gaangariSebisas iTvaliswinebs

valis momsaxurebis absoluturi sididis Sefardebas mSp-Tan, e. i.:

BB П

D D K 21

. (5.7)

5.2. safinanso-ekonomikuri gaangariSebebis statistikuri

meTodologiis ZiriTadi kategoriebi da debulebebi

sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlas Tan axlavs saqmianobis axali

saxeobebis gaCena, romlebsac sawarmos finansuri menejerisaTvis gaCnia

principulad axali xasiaTi. maT ricxvs ganekuTvneba fuladi saxsrebis

efeqturad ganTavsebis amocana.

fuli Rebulobs kidev erT daxasiaTebas - droiT faseulobas. es

parametri SeiZleba ganvixiloT or aspeqtSi.pirveli aspeqti dakavSirebulia droTa ganmavlobaSi naRdi fulis

gaufasurebasTan. warmovidginoT, rom sawarmos gaaCnia Tavisufali fuladi

saxsrebi 15 aTasi laris odenobiT, xolo inflacia, anu fulis

gaufasureba weliwadSi Seadgens 20%. Ees niSnavs, rom ukve momdevno wels,



189

Tu fuls SevinaxavT „baliSis qveS“, misi msyidvelobiTi unari Semcirdeba

da Seadgens mimdinare fasebSi mxolod 12,5 aTas lars.

meore aspeqti dakvSirebulia kapitalis (fuladi saSualebebis)

brunvasTan. saqmis arsis gagebisTvis ganvixiloT martivi magaliTi.

magaliTi:

sawarmos gaaCnia SesaZlebloba, monawileoba miiRos romeliRac

saqmian operaciaSi. am operacias moaqvs ori wlis gasvlis Semdeg

Semosavali 10 aTasi laris odenobiT. SemoTavazebulia Semosavalis

miRebis SerCevis varianti: Semosavlis miReba yoveli wlis bolos 5 aTasi

laris odenobiT, an mTliani Tanxis erTdrouli miReba orwliani periodis

bolos.

aq cxovrebiseul donezec ki cxadia, rom meore varianti, pirvel

variantTan SedarebiT, ar aris momgebiani. magram ratom? imitom, rom

pirveli wlis bolos miRebuli Tanxa isev SeiZleba gaiSvas brunvaSi da

moitanos damatebiTi Semosavali. erTi SexedviT aseTi daskvna naTelia da

arc moiTxovs specialur codnas, Tumca arCevis problema momentalurad

rTuldeba, Tu odnav Seicvleba amocanis piroba.

magaliTisaTvis ganvixiloT Semosavlebis aseTi variantebi:

varianti a): 10 aTasi lari ori wlis Semdeg;

varianti b): pirveli weli _ 4 aTasi lari, meore weli _ 5 aTasi

lari. am SemTxvevaSi cxadi ar aris, Tu romeli variantia ufro

xelsayreli.

SeiZleba moyvanili magaliTis kidev ufro garTuleba damatebiTi

pirobebis SemotaniT: inflaciis, periodulad da erTdroulad gadaxdiliSemosavlebis sidideebis stoqasturobis, damatebiTi momsaxurebis gawevis

da a. S.

problema „fuli _ dro“ ar aris axali, amitom SemuSavebulia

moxerxebuli algoriTmebi da modelebi, romlebic iZleva, mimdinare

momentis poziciidan, momavali Semosavlebis WeSmarit fasebSi



190

orientirebisa da fuladi Tanxebis sxvadasxva droSi Sedarebis

saSualebas.

ZiriTadi algoriTmebis ageba sakmaod martivia da dafuZnebulia

Semdeg ideas: finansuri garigebebis umartivesi saxeobaa romelime Tanxis

sesxad gacema PV (es maCvenebeli SemdgomSi aRiniSneba p-Ti), im pirobiT,

rom raRac t drois Semdeg dabrunebuli iqneba meti Tanxa FV (S). msgavsi

garigebis Sedegianoba SeiZleba daxasiaTdes ornairad: an absoluturi

maCveneblis matebiT (FV- PV), an romelime SefardebiTi maCveneblis

gaangariSebiT.

absoluturi maCveneblebi, maTi sivrcobriv-droiT aspeqtSi

araSesadarisobis gamo, xSirad gamouyenebadia msgavsi SefasebisaTvis.

amitom gamoiyeneba specialuri maCvenebeli _ ganakveTi. es maCvenebeli

gaiangariSeba amosavali Tanxis namatis sabaziso sididesTan SefardebiT.

sabaziso sidided SeiZleba aRebuli iqnas an PV, an FV.

amgvarad, t drois ganakveTi SeiZleba gaangariSebuli iqnas am ori

formulidan erT-erTiT:

,

PV

PV FV r t

(5.8)

. FV

PV FV d t

(5.9)

finansur gaangariSebebSi pirveli maCvenebeli miRebulia, rogorc:

saprocento ganakveTi, procentis ganakveTi, procenti, zrda, mogebis norma,

Semosavlianoba, meore _ saaRricxvo ganakveTi an diskonti.

orive ganakveTi dakavSirebulia erTmaneTTan, anu, Tu viciT erTimaCvenebeli, SeiZleba gaviangariSoT meore:

,1 t

t

t d

d r

an ,

1 t

t

t r

r d

(5.10)



191

orive maCvenebeli SeiZleba gamoisaxos aTwiladebSi an procentebSi.

gansxvaveba am formulebSi mdgomareobs imaSi, Tu romeli sidide aiReba

Sedarebis bazad: pirvel formulaSi (1) _ sawyisi Tanxa, meore formulaSi

(2) _ dasabrunebeli (mosalodneli) Tanxa.

maCvenebelTa gansazRvridan gamomdinareobs, romt r >0 da t d <1.

SemTxveva, rodesac 0t r da 0t d ar ganixileba, ramdenadac, maSin

PV FP (ramdeni sesxic gaica, imdenive dabrunda ukan) da SeiZleba

CaiTvalos, rom finansuri garigeba, rogorc aseTi, ubralod ar aris.

SemTxvevas, rodesac 1t d Seesatyviseba 0 PV , e. i. araviTari Tanxa

ar iyo gacemuli sesxad da raRac t drois Semdeg vRebulobT FV, esniSnavs imas, rom faqtiurad adgili aqvs ,,dayaCaRebas”.

mainc ra TanafardobaSi aris es maCveneblebi erTmaneTTan?

cxadia, rom t d < ,t r magram ramdenadac aseve t d <1, maSin t d < min

( ).1,t r bolo utoloba iZleva t r saprocento ganakveTiT saaRricxvo ganakveTi

t d -s ukeT Sefasebis saSualebas, vidre es SeiZleba gakeTdes, magaliTad

utoloba t d <1-is gamoyenebiT. ase, rom t

r =0,08 (e. i. t r =8%) t

d < min (0,08; 1) –

dan: gamodis, rom t d < 0,08 aris t d -s ufro zusti Sefaseba, vidre t

d < 1.

t r da t d Soris dacilebis done damokidebulia saprocento

ganakveTis doneze, romelsac adgili aqvs drois konkretul momentSi. ase,

magaliTad, Tu t r = 7%, maSin t

d = 6.54%, e. i. daSoreba SedarebiT ar aris

didi.

aseTi daskvnis dasabuTeba iolia Semdegi mosazrebis gamoyenebiT:

imis gamo, rom 0 < t d < 1, marTlzomieria

...11

1 32

t t t

t

d d d d

. amitom ...1

433

t t t t

t

t t d d d d

d

d r .

Tu sidide t d sakmaod mcirea, maSin gantolebis marjvena nawilis

yvela wevris, dawyebuli meore wevridan, ugulvelyofiT, miviRebT t r = t d .



192

kerZod, Tut

d =0,074 (rac toliat

d =7,4%), maSin ugulvelvyofT wevrebs

,005476,02 t d 0004052,03 t d da a. S.

prognozul gaangariSebebSi, magaliTad, sainvesticio proeqtebis

Sefasebisas, rogorc wesi, saqme aqvT saprocento ganakveTTan, Tumca mas

xazi ar gaesmeba. es aixsneba SemdegiT:

perveli, sainvesticio proeqtebis analizi, romelic dafuZnebulia

formalizirebul algoritmebze, SeiZleba Sesruldes mxolod SedarebiT

stabilur ekonomikaSi, rodesac saprocento ganakveTebis done ar aris

didi, SedarebiT ganWvretadia im TvalsazrisiT, rom maTi mniSvneloba ar

SeiZleba Seicvalos ramdenjerme, rogorc amas hqonda adgili Cvens

qveyanaSi. Tu saprocento ganakveTis mniSvnelovani variabelurobaa

mosalodneli, maSin gamoiyeneba analizis da gadawyvetilebis miRebis sxva

meTodebi, dafuZnebuli ZiriTadad araformalizebul kriteriumebze.

ganakveTebis gonivruli mniSvnelobebisas daSoreba saprocento da

diskontur ganakveTs Soris SedarebiT mcirea da amito prognozul

gaangaruSebaSi SesaZlebelia nebismieri maTganis gamoyeneba.

meore, prognozuli gaangariSebebi ar moiTxovs raRac

gansakuTrebulad amaRlebul sizustes, ramdenadac amdagvari

gaangariSebebis Sedegebi aris orientiri da ara zusti Sefaseba.

Ggarda ganxiluli maCveneblebisa xSirad gamoiyeneben sidides,

romelic iwodeba diskot-faqtorad:

FV

PV

r d v

t

t t

1

11

(5.11)

diskot-faqtori uCvenebs romel nawils Seadgens Tanxa PV Tanxa FV-

Si. cxadia, rom 0 < t v < 1 da sam maCvenebels Soris marTlzomieria

Tanafardoba .t t t r vd

diskot-faqtori t v SeiZleba gamoisaxos procentebSic.



193

moxerxebuli da TvalsaCino daxasiaTebad (gansakuTrebiT anabrebis

Sefasebisas) iTvleba PV Tanxis t droSi zrdis indeqsi t B :

t

t

t

t d

r v PV

FV B

1

11

1 (5.12)

rogorc sxva ganxiluli maCveneblebi sidide t B gamoisaxeba an

aTwiladSi an procentebSi.

zrdis indeqsi uCvenebs ramdenjer gaizarda sawyisi Tanxa t drois

ganmavlobaSi. Tu gvecodineba t B SeiZleba sxva maCveneblebis gaangariSeba.

kerZod formula (5) _ dan gamodis, rom .1 t t Br

magaliTi:

sawyisi Tanxa PV = 2 aT lari weliwadnaxevarSi gaizarda FV=4,6 aT

laramde gaviangariSoT zrdis indeqsi da gavakeToT daskvna.

3.22

6,45.1 B Bt da 3,113,25,1 r r t (an 130%).

amdagvarad sawyisi Tanxa weliwadnaxevarSi gaizarda 2,3 jer, an rac

igivea gaizarda 130%-iT.

mocemuli periodis zrdis indeqsi uCvenebs ramdenjer gaizardakapitalis sidide winaperodis bolos kapitalis sididesTan mimarTebiT.

amitom Tu cnobilia zrdis tempebi ,1t

B ,2t

B ... ,k t B drois Sesabamis peiodebSi

k t t t ,...,, 21 da es periodebi ganlagebulia Tanmimdevrulad, maSin zrdis

indeqsi k t t t t ...21 ganmavlobaSi iqneba toli:

.*...**121 ik t

k

it t t t B B B B B

(6).

maSasadame, Tu pirvel wels kapitali gaizarda 1,2 jer, meore wels

saerTo kapitali gaizarda 1.7 jer da mesame wels mTliani Tanxa gaizarda

1,3 jer, maSin sami wlis kapitalis zrdis indeqsi Seadgens

652,23,1*7,1*2,13 B



194

amdagvarad nebismier martiv finansur gariSebebSi yovelTvis adgili

aqvs sami sididis arsebobas, maT Soris ori mocemulia, xolo erTi

saZiebo.

P process, romelSic mocemulia amosavali Tanxa da ganakveTi

finansur gaangariSebebSi ewodeba namati, amosaval sidides _ namati Tanxa,

xolo ganakveTs _ namatis ganakveTi.

process, romelSic mocemulia momavlSi misaRebi mosalodneli Tanxa

da ganakveTi ewodeba diskontireba, amosavl sidides _ dayvanili Tanxa,

xolo ganakveTs _ diskontirebis ganakveTi.

pirvel SemTxvevaSi saubaria fuladi nakadis moZraobaze awmyodan

momavlisaken, xolo meoreSi _moZraobaze momavlidan awmyosaken.

formula 1-T mocemuli finansuri operaciis ekonomikuri arsi

mdgomareobs im Tanxis sididis gansazRvraSi, romelic iqneba, an romelic

surs investors gankargos am operaciis damTavrebis Semdeg. ramdenad

formula 1-dan

),1( t r PV FV (5.13)

maSin FV > PV (ramdenadac 1+ t r >1), e.i. dro axdens fulis generirebas.

bunebrivia, aseTive daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba formula 2-s

gamoyenebiTac, ramdenadac misgan gamomdinareobs, rom

)1( t d FV PV (8) da marTlzomieria utoloba 11 t d .

sxvaobas

PV FV I ewodeba procenti. es fuladi Tanxis )( PV sesxad

gacemis Sedegad miRebuli Semosavlis sididea.

(unda aRiniSnos, rom maTematikaSi procenti ewodeba raRac ricxvis meased

wils, rac bunebrivia, gansxvavdeba procentis ekonomikuri cnebisgan).aRsaniSnavia, rom namatis ganakveTis saxiT SeiZleba gamodiodes

rogorc saprocento aseve saaRricxvo ganakveTi . Tu namati Tanxa FV

imyofeba formula (7-Si), maSin namatis ganakveTi aris saprocento

ganakveTi. meores mxriv formula (8-gan) gamodinareobs rom namati Tanxa



195

SeiZleba gaangariSdes formuliT ,1 t d

PV FV

amitom am SemTxvevaSi namatis

ganakveTi aris saaRricxvo ganakveTi. (magaliTi, rodesac saaRricxvo

ganakveTi gamoiyeneba namatisaTvis aris bankis poziciidan veqsilis

aRricxva bankSi.

analogiuri msjeloba SeiZleba gamoiTqvas diskontirebis

ganakveTTan dakavSirebiTac. Tu dayvanili Tanxa imyofeba formula (8-is)

mixedviT, maSin diskontirebis gankveTis saxiT gamodis saaRricxvo

ganakveTi. meores mxriv formula (7-gan) gamodinareobs rom dayvanili

Tanxa SeiZleba gaangariSdes formuliT ,1 t r

FV PV

e.i. diskontirebis

gankveTis saxiT gamodis saprocento ganakveTi.

praqtikaSi Semosavlianoba _ aramudmivi sididea, damokidebuli

ZiriTadad riskis doneze, romelic asocirdeba biznesis im saxeobasTan

sadac gakeTda kapitalis investireba. aq kavSiri pirdapirpropociulia:

ramdenad sariskoa biznesi miT ufro didia Semosavlianobis mniSvneloba.

ufro naklebad sariskoa dabandebebi saxelmwifo fasian qaRaldebSi an

saxelmwifo bankSi, Tumca operaciis Semosavlianoba am SemTxvevaSi

SedarebiT naklebia.

sidide , FV romelic ganisazRvreba formula (7-T). uCvenebs

Semosavlianobis mocermuli donis probebSo ( t r ) dRevandeli sididis PV

momaval Rirebulebas.

magaliTi:

sawarmom miiRo krediti 50 aT laris odenobiT )( PV erTi wlis

vadiT )(t 80 aT laris odenobiT dabrunebis pirobiT ( FV ).

am SemTxvevaSi saprocento ganakveTi 1r =0,6 an 1r =60%, saaRricxvo

ganakveti 375,01 d an %,5,371 d xolo diskont-faqtori

.5,625,37%1001 v Tu sawarmom aRebuli kreditisaTvis erTi wlis Semdeg

unda daabrunos FV =90 aT lari, maSin formula (8-s) mixedviT SeiZleba



196

kreditis sididis moZebna 40% saaRricxvo ganakveTiT. 54)4,01(*90 PV aT

lars

saprocento ganakveTit r zogadi saxiT SeiZleba warmodgenili iqnes

rogorc sidide t r -s ganmsazRvreli oTxi komponentis jami:

),(t g E f ir pt

sadac i aris procentis norma, romelic asaxavs kreditoris kompensacias

aRebuli kreditis sxva miznebisTvis gamoyenebaze uaris Tqmis

SemTxvevaSi, sanam krediti ar iqneba dabrunebuli;

f _ riskis faqtori e.w. fiSeris efeqti, romelic warmoadgens

kreditorisaTvis kompensacias procentis an saerTod sruli

Tanxis armiRebis riskisaTvis;

p E _ sainflacio danamati, e.i. kompensacia inflaciis Sedegad

fulis msyidvelobiTi unaris Semcirebis, fasebis doneSi

SesaZlo cvlilebebisaTvis;

)(t g _ kompensacia, damokidebuli t drois xangrZlivobaze.

TvalsaCinoebisaTvis, situaciis gamartvebiT, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom

saprocento ganakveTi, gansazRvruli doniT, warmoadgens sasexo

kapitalis bazarze sameurneo agentebis urTierTqmedebis Sedegs.

dauSvaT DD aris moTxovnis mrudi sasexo kapitalze, romelic

asaxavs damokidebulebas fuladi saSualebebis moculobis moTxovnasa da

saprocento ganakveTis sidideebs Soris. bunebrivia, saprocento ganakveTis

zrdasTan erTad imatebs misawodebeli fuladi saSualebebis moculoba.

analogiuradaa, Tu SS aris sasesxo kapitalis miwodebis mrudi, romelic

uCvenebs, rom saprocento ganakveTis zrdasTan erTad izrdeba

misawodebeli fuladi saSualebebis moculoba. saprocento ganakveTis

sidide 'r ganisazRvreba DDda SS mrudebis gadakveTis wertiliT, e.w.

wonasworobis wertiliT, romelSic moTxovnis moculoba miwodebis

moculobis tolia.



197

amdagvarad, ise rogorc produqtebis an resursebis bazarze, fulze

moTxonisa da fulis miwodebis mrudebis gadakveTa gansazRvravs

gawonasworebul fass, romelic mocemul SemTxvevaSi aris

gawonasworebuli saprocento ganakveTi. sxva sityvebiT, saprocento

ganakveTi warmoadgens fulis gamoyenebis fass.

5.3. ZiriTadi cnebebi

aqcia _ fasiani qaRaldi, romelic adasturebs misi mflobelis mier

Setanil wils aqcionerTa sazogadoebis sawesdebo kapitalSi. aqcia

mflobels aZlevs uflebas miiRos mogebis nawili dividendebis saxiT,

gayidos fasiani qaRaldebi bazarze, monawileoba miiRos aqcionerTa

sazogadoebis marTvaSi.

investicia _ kapitalis moTavsebis iseTi xerxia, romelmac unda

uzrunvelyos kapitalis Rirebulebis SenarCuneba an gadideba da (an)

moitanos Semosavlis dadebiTi sidide.

investori _ iuridiuli an fizikuri piri, romelic iZens fasian

qaRaldebs. investori SeiZleba iyos individualuri, romelic iZens fasian

qaRaldebs sakuTari kapitaliT, mas bolo kreditors uwodeben da

instituciuri, romelic iZens fasian qaRaldebs ara imdenad skuTari,

ramdenadac moziduli fuliT, is Sualeduri rgolia kapitalis

mobilizebasa da investirebaSi.

marJa _ sxvadsxva maCveneblebs Soris sxvaobis gamomxatveli sidide.

safondo birJaze fasiani qaRaldebis gayidvisas sxvaoba myidvelis fassa

da gamyidvelis fass Soris.

obligaciebi _ grZelvadiani fasiani qaRaldebi, romlebsac moaqvTSemosavali procentis saxiT winaswar gansazRvruli ganakveTiT, plus

nominaluri Rirebulebis Tanxa dafarvis vadis dadgomisas.

opcioni (garigeba premiiT) _ sakuTrebis yidvis an gayidvis, miRebis

an SeTavazebis ufleba, romelsac dagenili pirobebis Sesabamisad iReben

fasSi kompensaciiT, am uflebis gamoyeneba xdeba opcionis mflobelis



198

Sexedulebisamebr. opcionis gamoyenebis SeuZlebloba iwvevs fulis

danakargebs.

fasiani qaRaldebi _ sainvesticio instrumentebia, romlebic

adastureben savalo valdebulebebs an kompaniaSi monawileobas mesakuTris

uflebiT, garkveuli samonawileo wilis gayidvis an yidvis kanonier

uflebas. maTi ZiriTadi saxeobebia: obligaciebi, aqciebi da opcionebi.

fiuCersebi _ kontraqtebi, romlebSic mocemuli kontraqtis

gamyidveli valdebulebas kisrulobs fiqsirebuli fasiT da dawesebul

vadaSi miawodos garkveuli (finansuri an sasaqonlo) aqtivebi, kontraqtis

myidveli kisrulobs am aqtivebis SeZenas mocemuli pirobiT.

Cekri _ fasiani qaRaldebis erT-erTi gavrcelebuli saxeoba

dadgenili formis fuladi dokumenti.

hejireba _ ori an meti fasiani qaRaldis gaerTianeba erT

investiciur poziciad riskis Semcirebis an gamoricxvis mizniT.

finansuri leveriji warmoadgens, erTis mxriv, obligaciebisa da

privilegirebul aqciebis da, meores mxriv, Cveulebriv aqciebs Soris

Tanafardobas. is aqcionerTa sazogadoebis finansuri mdgradobis

maCvenebelia, rac aisaxeba portfeluri investiciebis Semosavlianobazec.

liverijis maRali done adasturebs im aqcionerT sazogadoebebis sisustes,

romlebsac gaaCniaT vali didi odenobiT obligaciebisa da

privilegirebuli aqciebis saxiT. frTxili investorebi, rogorc wesi, Tavs

ikaveben aseTi saxeobis fasiani qaRaldebis SeZenisagan.

anuiteti _ investiciebi, romlebsac moaqvT meanabresTvis

gansazRvruli Semosavali drois regularuli Sualedis Semdeg,

Cveulebriv, pensiaze gasvlis mere. ZiriTadad es aris saxsrebis dabandeba

sadazRvevo da sapensio fondebSi.aqtivebis rentabeloba _ maCvenebeli, romelic axasiaTebs kompaniis

aqtivebis gamoyenebis efeqtianobas. es maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba wminda

mogebis gayofiT saSualowliuri aqtivebis jamze.



199

sakuTari kapitalis rentabeloba _ gaiangariSeba kompaniis wminda

mogebis gayofiT sakuTar kapitalze, procentebSi.

investiciebis rentabeloba _ investiciebis efeqtianobis maCvenebeli

ganisazRvreba wminda mogebis gayofiT investiciis moculobaze.

sainvesticio kapitalis _ rentabeloba axasiaTebs dafinansebis

xerxis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe kompanis mier mogebis generirebis unars. is

gaiangariSeba gadasaxadebisa da procentebis gadaxdamde mogebis sididis

gayofiT sakuTari da nasesxi kapitalis jamze.

gayidvebis rentabeloba

_ gaiangariSeba wminda mogebis SefardebiT

gayidvebis moculobasTan. is, axasiaTebs ra gayidvebis rentabelobas,

asaxavs kompaniis sawarmoo saqmianobis efeqtianobas.

sasaqonlo-materialuri maragebis brunvadobis indeqsi _ uCvenebs

drois romelime periodSi Tu ramdenjer iyideba kompaniis maragi. is

gaiangariSeba mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi realizebuli produqciis

TviTRirebulebis gayofiT amave periodis maragebis saSualo sidideze.

yovelwliuri Semosavalis gaangariSebiTi done _ ganisazRvreba

rogorc saerTo investiciebsa da maT calkeul Rirebulabas Soris

sxvaobis Sefardeba proeqtis xangrZlivobasTan;

proeqtis amogebis periodi

_ ewodeba dros (Tve, weli) romlis

ganmavlobaSi firmis sawarmoo saqmianobidan Semosulobebi dafaraven

investiciaze danaxarjebs. am maCvenebels gaaCnia erTi arsebiTi

naklovaneba, is ar iTvaliswinebs momavli periodebis Semosulobebis

faseulobas.

amogebis diskontirebuli periodi

_ romelic ganisazRvreba

investiciebis Tanxis gayofiT yovelwliur Semosulobebze, dikontirebis

gaTvaliswinebiT. gaangariSebis es forma kargad axasiaTebs proeqtis risks,da es misi Rirsebaa, xolo naklovaneba _ amogebis periodi ar asaxavs

proeqtis efeqtianobas amogebis Semdgom periodSi da ar SeiZleba

gamoyenebul iqnes proeqtis momgebianobis gansasazRvrelad.



200

wminda dayvanili Rirebuleba _ warmoadgens momavali Semosavalis

nakadis dRevandeli Rirebulebis Sefasebas. wminda dayvanili Rirebuleba

Sesabamisi saprocento ganakveTis meSveobiT diskontirebuli fuladi

nkadis an momavali mogebebis Rirebulebis tolia. is gamoiyeneba

investiciebze sxvadasxva SemoTavazebebis ranJirebisa da SefasebisaTvis,

Sedarebis saerTo bazis gamoyenebiT.investorma upiratesoba unda mianiWos

proeqtebs, romelTa wminda moyvanil Rirebulebas gaaCnia dadebiTi

mniSvneloba.

momgebianobis indeqsi

_ aris sainvestico proeqtis Sefasebis

kriteriumi. is gaiangariSeba momavali fuladi nakadebis realizaciasTan

dakavSirebuli dayvanili Rirebulebis gayofiT Tavdapirveli

investiciebis dayvanil Rirebulebaze. momgebianobis indeqsi agreTve erT-

erTi im maCveneblTagania, romlis safuZvelze keTdeba sxvadasxva proeqtis

Sedareba da dafinansebaze gadawyvetilebis miReba.

rentabelobis Sinagani koeficienti (investiciebis rentabelobis

koeficienti). is gaiangariSeba diskontirebis ganakveTis moZebniT

gantolebidan, romelSic momavali fuladi nakadebis dayvanili

Rirebuleba investiciebis Tavdapirveli Tanxis tolia. proeqti iTvleba

mimzidvelad Tu am koeficientis mniSvneloba aRemateba investoris

kapitalis pirobiT Rirebulebas, magaliTad ganakveTs grZelvadiani

sabanko kreditis mixedviT.

5.4. safinanso birJisa da fasiani qaRaldebis statistikuri maCveneblebi

safinaso-sabako statistika fasiani qaRaldebis bazris raodenobrividaxasiaTebisaTvis angariSobs Semdeg statistikur maCveneblebs: garigebis

raodenoba, aqciebis raodenoba, garigebis Rirebuleba, birJis likviduroba

da a. S.



201

birJis likviduroba niSnavs birJis mTliani sabrunavi kapitalis

gadaqcevis siswrafes fulad kapitalSi, anu vaWrobis siswrafes. misi

pirdapiri maCveneblebia brunvadobis koeficienti da brunvadobis dReebi.

B brunvadobis koeficienti gaiangariSeba formuliT:

ANU

S

Q K

(5.14)

sadac, QQQQ aris birJaze garigebaTa mTliani Rirebuleba sabazro

fasebSi;

S ki birJaze sabrunavi kapitalis saSualo naSTi mocemul periodSi.

Bbrunvadobis dReebi gamoiTvleba formuliT:

K

T t

(5.15)

sadac T aris kalendaruli dReebis ricxvi.

5.5. fulis mimoqcevis statistika

fulis mimoqcevis cneba da socialur-ekonomikuri mniSvneloba

finansuri statistikis erT-erTi globaluri mimarTulebaa qveynisfuladi sistemis mdgomareobis Seswavla. fulis mimoqceva _ erovnuli

Semosavlis da sazogadoebrivi produqtis gacvlisa da ganawilebis

aucilebeli pirobaa. fulis mimoqceva warmoadgens fulis moZraobas da

asrulebs mimoqcevis saSualebis, gadaxdis, fuladi rezervebisa da

danazogebis formirebis funqcias.

operaciebis erToblioba, romlis drosac ama Tu im formiT

xorcieldeba fuladi saSualebebis moZraoba (gadacema) warmoadgens

fulad brunvas.

fulis mimoqcevis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia:



202

fulis mimoqcevis asaxva da fulis gaufasurebaze moqmedi

faqtorebis Sefaseba;

bankebis salaroebSi da maTgan naRdi fulis moZraobis arxebis

gamovlena;

fulis mimoqcevaSi sezonuri ryevebis gansazRvra;

emisiis moTxovnilebis da mimoqcevidan fulis amoRebis

aucileblobisa da Sesabamisi raodenobrivi maxasiaTeblebis

gansazRvra;

mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis balansis

analizi.

fulis momoqcevis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

fuladi momoqcevis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema moicavs:

fulad brunvas;

naRd fuls sabanko sistemis gareT;

unaRdo saSualebebs;

fulis mimoqcevis siCqares;

brunvis xangrZlivobas; fuladi masis kupiurul agebulebas;

indeqs-deflators;

laris msyidvelobiT unars;

angariSebze saxelmwifos oqros maragebiT, depozitebiT operaciebis

amsaxvel maCveneblebs;

saerTaSoriso ekonomikur urTierTobebSi savaluto operaciebis

amsaxvel maCveneblebs.

mocemuli maCvenebelTa sistema efuZneba fulis iseT funqciebTan

dakavSirebul kategoriebs, rogoricaa Rirebulebis sazomi, mimoqcevis

saSualeba, gadaxdis, dagrovebisa da danazogis saSualeba.



203

5.6. mimoqcevaSi fulis saerTo masis gansazRvra

fulis mimoqcevis mniSvnelovani raodenobrivi maCvenebelia fuladi

masa, romelic warmoadgens sameurneo brunvis momsaxure da saxelmwifos,

kerZo pirebisa da dawesebulebebis kuTvnili msyidvelobiTi da

sagadasaxdelo saSualebebis erTobliv moculobas.

gansazRvruli TariRisaTvis da gansazRvrul periodSi fulis

mimoqcevis raodenobrivi cvlilebebis analizisaTvis da agreTve fuladi

masis moculobis da zrdis tempebis regulirebis RonisZiebebis

SesamuSaveblad gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva maCvenebeli _ fuladi agregatebi.

mTliani fuladi masa SeiZleba warmovidginoT, rogorc fuladi

agregatebis erToblioba, romelSic yoveli momdevno agregati moicavs winaagregats.

likvidurobis donis mixedviT TiToeul qveyanaSi arsebobs

detalizaciis xarisxiT gansxvavebuli, fuladi agregatebis sakuTari

sistema.

fulad masaSi ganasxvaveben:

aqtiur fuls (mosaxurebas uwevs naRd da unaRdo brunvas);

pasiur fuls (dagroveba, rezervebi, naSTi sabanko angariSebze),romlTa potenciuri gamoyeneba SesaZlebelia angariSsworebisaTvis.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis definiciebiT, fuladi agregatebi

Semdegi saxiT gamoiyureba:

M

O

_ esaa naRdi fuli mimoqcevaSi. naRdi fuladi masa Sedgeba

mosaxleobis xelT arsebuli naRdi fulisagan, iuridiuli pirebis

salaroebSi fuladi naSTisa da sabanko dawesebulebebis sabrunav

salaroebSi arsebuli naRdi fulisagan.

mosaxleobaSi naRdi fulis arseboba imis Sedegia, rom fulis miReba

da daxarjva droSi erTmaneTs ar emTxveva. mosaxleobis naRdi fulis

raodenoba damokidebulia fuladi Semosavlebis moculobaze, maTi miRebis

sixSireze, saqonliTa da momsaxurebiT uzrunvelyofaze da a. S.



204

naRdi fulis arsebobas adgili aqvs organizaciebisa da

dawesebulebebis salaroebSi, maT mier sakaso operaciebis normaluri

warmoebisaTvis.

fuladi agregati M

1

= MO + depoziti moTxovnamde (angariSebi

moTxovnamde da saSualebebis naSTs dawesebulebebis, organizaciebisa da

sawarmoebis angariSebze).

fuladi agregati M1 asrulebs fuladi masis sididis dominirebuli

maCveneblis rols. saxeldobr, agregati M1 axdens mTliani Sida

produqtis, erovnuli Semosavlis ganawilebisa da gadanawilebis,

dagrovebisa da moxmarebis realizaciis operaciebis momsaxurebas. am

maCveneblis statistikuri aRricxva uzrunvelyofilia imiT, rom fulis

mniSvnelovani masa gadis depozituri dawesebulebebis angariSebiT.

agregati M1 moicavs fulis brunvis yvela im saSualebebs, romelic

SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes konversiis, winaswari gayidvebis gareSe an

romelime sxva finansuri operaciis gaangariSebebSi da xasiaTdeba didi

likvidurobiT. fuladi masis danarCeni maCveneblebi SeiZleba gamoyenebuli

iqnes gadasaxadebis saxiT, mxolod rigi Sualeduri operaciebis Semdeg.

fuladi agregati M

2

= M1 + uvado depozitebi. uvado depozitebi _ esaa

Semnaxvel da komerciul bankebSi iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis vadian

angariSebze (3 wlamde) narCeni saSualebebi. Tavisi SedgenilobiT M2

ramdenime-jer aRemateba M1 agregats.

fuladi agregati M

3

= M2 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis sxva

depozitebi (sadazRvevo polisebi, fizikuri pirebis anabrebi 3 welze meti

vadiT, bankebis rezervebi da a.S.).

fuladi agregati M

4

= M3 + saSualebebi fasian qaRaldebSi (aqciebi.

obligaciebebi, veqseli da a.S.)fuladi agregati M

5

= M4 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis

saSualebebi ucxour valutaSi.



205

fuladi agregatebi agebulia maTi likvidobis klebadobis wesiT.

agregatebs Soris aucilebelia wonasworoba; sxvanairad dairRveva fuladi

mimoqceva.

saerTaSoriso standartebi iTvaliswineben 4-dan 7-mde fulad

agregats. sxvadasxva qveyanaSi fuladi masa nawildeba agregatebis

sxvadasxva ricxvebad. gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis statistikaSi

upiratesobas aniWeben agregats, romelic aerTianebs naRd da depozitur

fuls. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi yvela qveynisaTvis gaiangariSebs

saerTo agregat M1, romelic moicavs naRd fuls da Cekuri anabrebis yvela

saxeobas.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis rekomendaciiT gaiangariSeba:

viwro fuli (agregati M1 saSualebebi);

kvazi-fuli (uvado da saSemnaxvelo sabanko angariSebi da bazarze

formirebadi yvelaze likviduri finansuri operaciebi);

farTo fuli = viwro fuli + kvazi-fuli.

zemoT CamoTvlili fuladi agregatebi _ esaa samomento maCveneblebi,

gaangariSebuli periodis dasawyisisaTvis (bolosaTvis). mTeli rigi

gaTvlebisaTvis saWiroa agregatebis saSualo zomaze monacemebi periodis

ganmavlobaSi. amisaTvis gamoiyeneben martivi saSualo ariTmetikulis

formulas:

i M _

= i M (periodis dasawyisisaTvis) + i M (periodis bolosaTvis)/2.

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gaiangariSeba Sesabamisi fuladi agregatis

wili mTlian Sida produqtSi. es maCvenebeli iwodeba monetarizaciis

(monetizaciis) koeficientad da axasiaTebs realizebuli mSp-s im nawils,

romlis uzrunvelyofa xdeba Sesabamisi agregatiT:

monetizaciis koeficienti = i M / mSp.

magaliTad, Tu agregat M1 -is Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan

Seadgens 20%, maSin amboben, rom mSp-s 20% realizaciis uzrunvelyofa

xdeba am agregatiT.



206

monetizaciis koeficienti aris fuladi mimoqcevis mniSvnelovani

indikatori, ramdenadac misi donis Sefaseba SesaZlebelia mxolod

saerTaSoriso SedarebebiT. ganviTarebul qveynebSi monetizaciis

koeficienti (gaangariSebuli agregat M2 safuZvelze) Seadgens 60-dan 80%-

mde.

5.7. fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris maCveneblebi

mimoqcevaSi fulis raodenoba damokidebulia Semdeg faqtorebze:

mSp-is sidideze;

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqareze.

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqare xasiaTdeba ori maCvenebliT :

fuladi masis brunvis raodenobiT (br.r.);

erTi brunvis xangrZlivobiT (x.br.).

fuladi masis brunvis raodenoba ganisazRvreba mTliani Sida

produqtis sididis SefardebiT fuladi masis saSualo sididesTan ( _

M ):

br. r. = mSp/

_

M .

brunvadobis koeficienti uCvenebs, saSualod ramdeni brunva

ganaxorciela fuladma masam wlis ganmavlobaSi. sxva sityvebiT _ wlis

ganmavlobaSi ramdenjer iqna gamoyenebuli valuta saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis Sesasyidad. brunvis ricxvis zrdisas matulobs fuladi

masis mimoqcevis siCqare. es aris fuladi masis siCqaris maxasiaTebeli

pirdapiri maCvenebeli.

erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba gaiangariSeba dReebSi, (D) periodSi

sabanko dReebis ricxvis SefardebiT brunvis raodenobasTan.

br. x. = D/br. r.

saerTaSoriso standartebiT, weliwadSi sabanko dReebis raodenoba

tolia 360 dRis, kvartalSi _ 180 dRis, TveSi _ 30 dRis. Ees maCvenebeli

axasiaTebs ramden dReSi ganxorcielda fuladi masis erTi brunva. Tu

dReebis raodenoba mcirdeba, es niSnavs imas, rom erTi da igive moculobis



207

mTliani Sida produqtis momsaxurebisaTvis saWiroa naklebi dReebi. es

brunvis siCqaris uku maCvenebelia.

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba iwvevs misi brunvidan

amoRebas (mimoqcevaSi gaSvebis), romelic ganisazRvreba formuliT:

M = (br. x1 _ br. x0) x mSp/D,

sadac mSp/D _ saangariSo periodSi mTliani Sida produqtis erTdRiuri

realizaciis sididea.

am maCveneblebis gaangariSeba ganvixiloT momdevno cxrilSi

motanili monacemebis safuZvelze:

ori periodis fuladi masa da mTliani Sida produqti

maCveneblebi sabaziso

periodi

saangariSo

periodi

mSp, f. e. 740 754

fuladi masa, f. e. 280 320

gaviangariSoT brunvadobis koeficienti:

1. sabaziso periodSi: Kbr0 = 740/280=2,6 jer;

2. saangariSo periodSi: Kbr1 = 754/320=2,4 jer;

es niSnavs imas, rom fuladi masa sabaziso periodSi dabrunda 2,6-jer,

saangariSo periodSi ki 2,4 jer (e.i. mimoqcevis siCqare Senelda).

gaviangariSoT erTi brunvis xaangrZlivoba:

1. sabaziso periodSi: x.br.0 = 360/2,6=138,5 dRe;

2. saangariSo periodSi: x.br1 = 360/2,4=150 dRe;

vinaidan fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqare Senelda, 754 f. e. sididis

mTliani Sida produqtis realizaciis uzrunvelsayofad saWiro gaxda

damtebiT fulis Tanxis CarTva, romelic tolia:

M = (150 _ 138,5) x 754/360 = 24,1 f. e.



208

brunvadobis koeficienti da erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba

urTierTakavSirebulia erTmaneTTan. es niSnavs imas, rom Tu mocemuli

maCveneblebidan cnobilia erTi, maSin SeiZleba meores povna.

Tu cnobilia brunvaTa ricxvi, maSin erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba

(x.br) SeiZleba vipovoT Semdegnairad:

x.br.= D/ Kbr = 360/2,6 = 138,5 dRe.

Tu cnobilia erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba, maSin brunvaTa ricxvi

ganisazRvreba formuliT:

r.br. = D/x. br = 360/138,5 = 2,6-jer.

saangariSo periodSi fuladi masis brunvaTa raodenobis cvlileba

sabazisosTan SedarebiT ganpirobebulia ori faqtoris gavleniT: mTliani

Sida produqtis da mimoqcevaSi fuladi masis zomis cvlilebebiT.

pirveli faqtoris gavlena ganisazRvreba formuliT:

r.br.(mSp) = mSp1 _ mSp0 / 1 M = 754 _ 740/320 = 0,04-jer.

meore faqtoris gavlena ganisazRvreba formuliT:

r.br.(M ) = mSp0 / 1 M _ mSp0/ 0 M = 740/320 _ 740/280 = _0,33-jer,

sadac 1 M da 0 M _ fuladi masa Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso

periodebSi.

am dros unda iyos daculi Semdegi toloba:

r.br. = r.br.(mSp) +r.br.(M ),

2,4 _ 2,6 = 0,04+ (_0,33).

gansxvaveba ganpirobebulia damrgvalebebiT.

maSasadame, fuladi masis 40 f. e. gadidebam gamoiwvia misi brunvis

siCqaris 0,33 brunviT Semcireba, xolo mSp-is gadidebam 0,04 brunviT

gazarda mimoqcevis siCqare.

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris Seswavlisas gansakuTrebiT

mniSvnelovania naRdi fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris analizi, e.i. agregat MO -

is. fuladi masidan am agregatis gamoyofiT, miviRebT fuladi masis

mimoqcevis siCqaris models: mSp/M= mSp/ MO x MO/ M.

am modelis Cawera SeiZleba gamartivebuli saxiTac:



209

r.br= a x b,

sadac MO/ M aris naRdi fulis wili saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevaSi.

es modeli iZleva naRdi fulis brunvis siCqaris (a) da saerTo

fulad masaSi maTi wilis (b) cvlilebebiT ganpirobebuli fulis

mimoqcevis siCqaris absoluturi matebis gansazRvris saSualebas.

saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris absoluturi cvlileba

ganisazRvreba Semdegnairad:

r.br. = r.br1 _ r.br0.

mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (a) faqtoris xarjze:

r.br(a). = (a1 _ a0)* b1

mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (b) faqtoris xarjze:

r.br(b) = (b1 _ b0)* a1

fulis masis mimoqcevis siCqaris analizis meTodika ganvixiloT

Semdeg cxrilSi motanili monacemebis safuZvelze:

maCveneblebi aRniSvnebi sabaziso

periodi

saangariSo

periodi

mTliani Sida produqti,

f. e.

mSp 17173 26139

saerTo fuladi masa, f. e. M 664 1249

naRdi fuli, f. e. M0 239 512

gaangariSebiTi

maCveneblebi:

saerTo fuladi masis

mimoqcevis siCqare, jer

naRdi fulis mimoqcevis

mSp/ M=r.br 25,9 20,9



210

siCqare, jer

naRdi fulis wili

saerTo fulad masaSi

mSp/ M0= a

M0/ M= b

71,9

0,36

51,1

0,41

saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqarem saangariSo periodSi daiwia

sabazisosTan SedarebiT 5 brunviT:

r.br = 20,9 _ 25,9 = _ 5 brunva, maT Soris:

1) naRdi fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlilebis xarjze:r.br(a). = (51,1 _ 71,9) x 0,41 = _8,6 brunva.

2) saerTo fulad masaSi naRdi fulis wilis cvlilebis xarjze:

r.br(b) = (0,41 _ 0,36) x 71,9 = 3,6 brunva.

am dros daculi unda iyos toloba:

_5 = _8,6+3,6.

motanili gaangariSebidan SeiZleba Semdegi daskvnis gakeTeba:

saangariSo periodSi adgili aqvs fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris

cvlilebis araxelsayrel tendencias sabazisosTan SedarebiT. saerTo

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqarem daiwia 5 brunviT, maT Soris is Semcirda

pirveli faqtoris xarjze 8,6 brunviT (e.i. naRdi fulis mimoqcevis

siCqaris dawevis xarjze).

mocemuli qveynis ekonomikaSi araxelsayrel tendenciaze metyvelebs

mTliani Sida produqtisa da fuladi masis zrdis tempebic.

Sesaswavl periodSi mTliani Sida produqti gaizarda 1,5-jer

,17173

26139

im dros, rodesac fuladi masa gaizarda 1,9-jer .

664

1249

5.8. sabanko-sakredito statistika



211

saqarTveloSi sabanko sistemis ZiriTad rgols warmoadgens erovnu-

li banki. igi axorcielebs qveyanaSi fulad-sakredito regulirebas.

saqarTvelos erovnuli banki Sesabamisi kanonmdeblobis safuZvelze

SeimuSavebs fulad-sakredito politikis strategias da taqtikas. am

politikis Sedegebi SesaZlebelia Sefasdes monetaruli indikatorebiT.

aseTi indikatorebi garkveulwilad fulis bazarsa da ZiriTad socialur-

ekonomikur maCveneblebs Soris damakavSirebeli rgolia.

sabanko kreditis ZiriTad statistikur maCveneblebs miekuTvneba:

• ekonomikisa da mosaxleobis dakreditebisaTvis bankebis mier gacemuli

Tanxebis moculoba;

• sakredito dabandebebis saerTo TanxaSi moklevadiani da grZelvadianikreditebis xvedriTi wili;

• sawarmoebis mier bankebSi aRebuli sesxebis vadagadacilebuli

davalianeba.

sakredito Tanxebis gamoyenebis analizisas statistikaSi

gaiangariSeba Semdegi maCveneblebi:

kreditis brunvis ricxvi (K), kreditis brunvadoba dReebSi (T), produqciis

gamoSvebis moculoba sakredito resursebis erT larze.

brunvaTa ricxvi ganisazRvreba Semdegi formuliT:

,S

Q K

sadac K- brunvaTa ricxvia mocemul periodSi;

Q -kreditis brunva gacemis an dafarvis mixedviT;

S kreditis saSualo naSTi.

K kreditis dReebSi brunvadobis gasaangariSeblad saWiroa mocemuli

periodis kalendaruli dReebis ricxvis Sefardeba brunvadobis

koeficientTan. maSasadame,

K

T t

(5.16)



212

G gacemuli kreditis yovel erT larze damatebiT gamoSvebuli

produqciis raodenoba gaiangariSeba gamoSvebuli produqciis SefardebiT

gacemuli kreditis mTlian moculobasTan.

nebismieri safinanso, sakredito an komerciuli operacia warmoadgens

maT monawileebs Soris SeTanxmebaTa erTobliobas Semdegi pirobebiT:

kreditis moculoba, saqonlis fasi, procentis daricxvisa da ZiriTadi

valis dafarvis xerxi da sxva.

finansur gaangariSebaSi procentis qveS igulisxmeba nebismieri

formis valis saxiT aRebuli Tanxidan miRebuli Semosavlis absoluturi

sidide. procentis gadaxda kreditorisaTvis xdeba valis sidideze

daricxviT an masTan erTad.

finansur raodenobriv analizSi saprocento ganakveTi warmoadgens

ara marto savalo Tanxis gazrdis instruments, aramed aseve finansuri

operaciis Semosavlis sazoms.

arsebobs saprocento ganakveTis ori ZiriTadi saxe: martivi da

rTuli. sawyisi Tanxis zrdis meqanizmi martivi saprocento ganakveTis

dros maTematikurad Semdegnairad SeiZleba gamovsaxoT:

)21()1( i P ii P Pi Pi P ,

)1( ni P s ;

xolo rTuli saprocento ganakveTis dros

)1(1 i P Pi P S ,

2

1112 )1()1)(1()1( i P ii P iS SiS S ,

ni P S )1( ,

sadac, P - Tavdapirveli Tanxaa;

i - saprocento ganakveTi;

n - welTa ricxvi;

S - dagrovili fuli, Tavdapirveli Tanxa masze daricxuli procentiT

vadis (periodis) bolos.



213

Tu sesxis gacema unda moxdes erT wlamde vadiT, maSin bankisaTvis

ufro momgebiania martivi, xolo erT welze meti periodisaTvis – rTuli

saprocento ganakveTi.

5.9. inflacia da holdinguri mogeba biznesSi

inflacia socialuri, ekonomikuri da politikuri ganviTarebis erT-

erTi urTulesi da umwvavesi problemaa. igi metnaklebi siRrmiTa da

masStabebiT yvela qveynis ekonomikis ganviTarebisTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli.inflacia, rogorc ekonomikuri movlena xangrZlivi periodis

manZilze arsebobs. Tavad termini inflacia laTinuri sityvaa, rac niSnavs

`gabervas~. Mmisgan arc erTi qveyana araa dazRveuli.

inflacia niSnavs fasebis saerTo donis amaRlebas, romelic

ganapirobebulia brunvaSi myofi fuladi masisa da misi saqonliT

uzrunvelyofas Soris wonasworobis darRveviT. igi damangrevel gavlenas

axdens rogorc makro – ise mikroekonomikur procesebze, biznessa da

menejmentze. inflaciis Sedegia makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis xelovnuri

gadideba da am safuZvelze cxovrebis donis moCvenebiTi gaumjobeseba.

Ddisproporcia aRmocendeba sxvadasxva erTmaneTTan dakavSirebuli

mizezebiT. Eesenia: inflaciuri moTxovnis warmoSoba da danaxarjebis

donis zrda. amitom didi mniSvneloba eniWeba inflaciis Seswavlas, misi

gazomvis meTodebis dauflebasa da saTanado ekonomikuri, biznesmenuri,

menejmenturi gadawyvetilebebis miRebas prevenciuli RonisZiebebis

gasatareblad qveynisa da mis calkeul regionebSi.

inflacia iwvevs fasebis saerTo donis zrdas, magram ara yvela saxis

saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze fasis aucileblad momatebas. inflaciis dros

Tavs iCens fasebis Zalzed araTanabari zrdis tendencia. igi zogjer

Tanabari tempebiT, zogjer arc ki izrdeba. Uunda aRiniSnos, rom inflacia



214

gamoxatulebas poulobs bazris xangrZliv saerTo uwonasworobaSi

moTxovnis mxriv, magram es arc sayovelTao movlenaa da arc inflaciuri,

am SemTxvevaSi Zalian didi rolis Semsrulebelia bazarze moTxovna-

miwodebis Tanafardoba. moTxovnis SedarebiTi zrda miwodebasTan

SedarebiT gviCvenebs mxolod bazris meqanizmis muSaobas da ar exeba

inflacias, magram roca uwonasworoba xangrZlivia da erTbaSad mravali

bazris damaxasiaTebel Taviseburebad iqceva, saqme gvaqvs inflaciuri

procesis gaSlasTan.

inflacia iwvevs fuladi mimoqcevis kanonis darRvevas da amis Semdeg

qaRaldis fulis gaumjobesebas oqrosa da saqonelTan SedarebiT.

saqonlis fasis zrdisa da fulis msyidvelobiTi unaris Semcirebis

pirobebSi warmoiSoba oqroze laJi, rac niSnavs oqros sabazro fasis

gadidebas qaRaldis fulis niSnebis raodenobasTan SefardebiT. aqedan

gamomdinare sCans, rom liTonis fulis inflacia gamoricxulia, radgan

Tu raime mizeziT sarealizacio saqonlis masa Semcirdeba, oqros

monetebis nawili gava mimoqcevidan da iqceva ganZad.

amrigad SeiZleba vTqvaT, rom inflacia dakavSirebulia qaRaldis

fulTan, mas ara aqvs oqros is Tviseba, rom avtomaturad datovos

mimoqcevis sfero da gadaiqces dagrovebis saSualebad. mas isic emateba,

rom qveynebis mTavrobaTa umravlesoba biujetis Sesrulebis procesSi,

yovelTvis àRmoaCenen~ Seusabamobas biujetis xarjebsa da Semosavlebs

Soris. am mizniT xdeba fulis emisia, romelic Tavis mxriv iwvevs fasebis

swraf zrdas da ekonomikaSi qmnis Sokur mdgomareobas: fasebi ufro

swrafad izrdeba, vidre xelfasebi, es ki moTxovnasa da miwodebas Soris

Tanafardobis darRvevis umTavresi mizezi xdeba.

inflaciis mizezebs Soris mTavaria iseTi makroekonomikuriproporciebis darRveva, rogoricaa wonasworoba gadaxdisunarian

moTxovnasa da Sesabamisi moculobis realur moxmarebas Soris.

moTxovnismier inflacias iwvevs erToblivi moTxovnis siWarbe

imasTan SedarebiTTU risi uzrunvelyofac SeuZlia warmoebas. imis gamo,



215

rom fasebis zrdas iwvevs ara moTxovnis siWarbe, aramed miwodebis

Semcireba, rac Tavis mxriv sawarmoo danaxarjebis zrdiT aris

ganpirobebuli, e.i. fasebis mudmivi zrda sruliadac ar aris inflaciis

erTaderTi niSani, inflacia SeiZleba moxdes stabiluri fasebis drosac,

Tu ki amave dros miwodeba qronikulad CamorCeba moTxovnas.

inflaciuri movlenebis klasifikacia sxvadasxva niSniT SeiZleba

movaxdinoT. am niSnebidan yvelaze mTavaria inflaciis tempi. am niSniT

inflacia SeiZleba iyos “mcocavi”, “ eneb di” da hiperinflacia (hiper

berZnuli sityvaa da niSnavs zeviT).

mcocavi inflacia qaRaldis fulis iseT gaufasurebaa,

romelic nela, SedarebiT SeumCneblad mimdinareobs, romlia drosac

fasebis saerTo donis mateba Seadgens 10-15%-s. mcocav inflacias TiTqmis

yvela ganviTarebul qveyanaSi aqvs adgili. am dros inflaciis wliuri

tempi meryebs 3-3.5%-is farglebSi.

Wenebadi inflacia aris qaRaldis fulis swrafi tempiT gaufasureba

(fasebis wliuri zrda 20%-ze metia), romelic iwvevs warmoebis

dezorganizacias. am dros mosaxleoba cdilobs Seiqmnas maragi da

moicilos gaufasurebuli fuli.

hiperinflacia aris zeinflacia, am dros fasebis yovelTviuri zrda

50%-s aRemateba. igi xdeba umarTavi, mimoqcevaSi grovdeba bevri fuli,

cxovrebis done mkveTrad ecema, warmoeba ikveceba an saerTod Cerdeba.

amis garda inflacia SeiZleba iyos ERia (romelic kargad Cans

samomxmareblo saqonelsa da sawarmoo resursebze fasebis zrdiT) da

daxuruli (rac gamowveulia sasaqonlo deficitiT da Cans arapirdapir,

warmoebis danaxarjebis gadidebiTa da mogebis TandaTanobiTi SemcirebiT

biznesSi).rogorc ukve davinaxeT, inflaciis procesi sakmaod rTulia,

rac moiTxovs mis gulmodgined gamokvlevas, amitom inflaciaze momqmedi

procesebis analizi xorcieldeba sxvadasxva ekonomikuri maCveneblebiT,

http://d/-gamoberva

http://d/-gamoberva

http://d/-gamoberva



216

rogorc saerTo erovnul meurneobaTa doneze, ise calkeul sawarmoebis

doneze.

inflaciuri movlenebi da procesebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia

inerciis kanonebis ZaliT ganviTarebis Camoyalibebul tendenciebis

SenarCuneba amis gamo biznesmenebi awarmoeben nedleulis, saTbobis,

eleqtroenergiis, naxevarfabrikatebis an mTliani mza produqciis winaswar

Sesyidvas, riTac fasTasxvaobiT Rebuloben mogebas. aseT mogebas uwodeben

holdingur mogebas. aseTi saqmiTaa dakavebuli ara marto calkeuli

biznesmeni, aramed specialuri msxvili holdinguri kompaniebi da

korporaciebic. isini umetes SemTxvevebSi, ar floben raime saxis TavianT

sawarmoo potencials da holdinguri operaciebiT mniSvnelovani wili

uWiravT calkeuli firmebis aqciaTa sakontrolo paketSi. Tu davuSvebT,

rom mcocavi inflaciis pirobebSi sawarmoo moxmarebis saqonelze fasebi

yovelwliurad saSualod izrdeba 7 %-iT, anu fasebis indeqsi Seadgens

saSualod 1,07-s. Tu vivaraudebT, rom aseTi tendencia ori weli mainc

gagrZeldeba qveyanaSi, maSin biznesmens 200,0 aTasi laris saqonlis

winaswar SesyidviT SeuZlia erTi wlis Semdeg miiRos holdinguri mogeba

yovel erT larze 7 TeTri (1,07 lars gamoklebuli 1 lari), xolo

mTlianad 200,0 aTasi X 0,07 TeTrze =14,0 aTasi) 14 aTasi lari.

E inflaciis arsebuli tendenciebis gaTvaliswinebiT SesaZlebelia

gamoTvlil iqnas saprognozo maCveneblebi eqstrapolaciuri meTodis

safuZvelze. amasTan gaTvaliswinebul unda iqnas inflaciis saxeebi da

maTi Taviseburebani. kerZod, “mcocavi” inflaciis SemTxvevaSi

prognozirebisaTvis viyenebT wrfivi gantolebas ( t aa y 10 ), “Wenebadi”

inflaciis SemTxvevaSi paraboluri gantolebas ( 2

210 t at aa y ), xolo

hiperinflaciis dros maCveneblian funqcias ( t

aa y 10 )

5.10. inflaciis donisa da dinamikis statistikuri analizi



217

inflaciis kvlevis msoflio praqtikaSi inflaciis donis saerTo

daxasiaTebisaTvis gamoiyeneba ori maCvenebeli: pirveli, samomxmareblo

fasebis indeqsi, romelic saSualebas iZleva Sefasdes inflaciis done

samomxmareblo bazarze da zomavs im fasebis saSualo cvlilebas,

romelsac qalaqis mosaxleoba ixdis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

fiqsirebuli kalaTis SesaZenad; dReisaTvis samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi

erTaderTi maCvenebelia, romlis saSualebiTac izomeba qveyanaSi

inflaciis done; meore, mTliani erovnuli produqtis deflatori (mTliani

Sida produqtis deflatori - saqarTveloSi), romelic afasebs inflaciis

dones saxelmwifoSi warmoebuli da moxmarebuli mTliani dovlaTis

mixedviT.

inflaciis done izomeba fasebis indeqsis gamoyenebiT, anu:

Iinf=

0

01

p

p p

I

I I 100,

(5.17)

sadac, inf. I - inflaciis done procentulad;

1 p I - saqonlis fasis indeqsia saangariSo periodSi;

0 p I - saqonlis fasis indeqsia sabaziso periodSi.

mocemuli formula SeiZleba Caiweros asec:

1001

0

1

p

p

I

I I inf. .

magaliTi: Tu 07.11

p I , 03.10

p I , maSin inflaciis done Seadgens

%9.3100103.1

07.1

.

Mmisi cvlileba uCvenebs, Tu ramdeni procentiT Seicvala inflaciis

done drois mocemul periodSi.

inflaciis sidide ki gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad: ( p - 1)100.



218

inflaciis erT-erTi Semadgeneli komponentia fuladi masa, romelic

ar aris uzrunvelyofili Sesabamisi raodenobis saqonliTa da

momsaxurebiT. fuladi masis sidide damokidebulia brunvaSi arsebuli

fulis raodenobasa da misi brunvis siCqareze. Teoriulad, fuladi masis

zrdam fulis brunvis Senelebis SemTxvevaSi, SeiZleba ar gamoiwvios

inflacia, magaliTad, Tu gaizrdeba depozitebis saprocento ganakveTebi.

magram praqtikulad, rogorc wesi, saqonliT uzrunvelyofis gareSe fulis

gamoSveba myidvelebs misi (fulis) swrafi realizaciisaken (daxarjvisaken)

ubiZgebs, rac adidebs fulis brunvis siCqares da aZlierebs inflacias.

inflaciis meore Semadgeneli komponenti _ sasaqonlo masis sidide,

damokidebulia mis fizikur moculobasa da saqonlis fasebze. ramdenadac

fuladi da sasaqonlo masebi miiswrafian sabazro wonasworobisaken,

inflaciis saerTo zoma fuladi masisa da fulis brunvis siCqaris

gadidebis pirdapirproporciulia, xolo mudmiv fasebSi gaangariSebuli

sasaqonlo (momsaxurebis) masis (mTliani Sida produqtis) moculobis

ukuproporciulia. amrigad, mTliani Sida produqtis deflatori udris:

,

sadac Im aris fuladi masis indeqsi

da igi tolia:

,

xolo m1 da m0 aris fuladi masa Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso

wels.

, sadac n1 da n0 aris fuladi masis brunvaTa ricxvi saangariSo dasabaziso wels.

saxelmwifo statistikis mier fuladi masa gaiangariSeba naRdi da

unaRdo fuladi saxsrebis, yvela Semosavlebis jamis (dagrovebis

moculobis gaTvaliswinebiT), Senatanebisa da gadasaxdelebis brunvis

q

n

m

01 mmm

:

01 nnn



219

mixedviT, xolo sasaqonlo masa – saqonelbrunvisa da momsaxurebis

gayidvis moculobis, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis yidvaze mosaxleobis

fuladi danaxarjebis mixedviT.

sasaqonlo da fuladi masebis Sesabamisobis done fasdeba rigi

maCveneblebis mixedviT. kerZod, aseTebs miekuTvneba: fuladi da sasaqonlo

masebis Tanafardoba statikasa da dinamikaSi; fuladi masisa da fasebis

zrdis tempebis Tanafardoba; Semosavlebisa da fasebis zrdis tempebis

Tanafardoba. aqve unda aRvniSnoT, rom analizisaTvis saWiro informaciul

bazad gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva saxis wyaro, kerZod: saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis fasebis mopoveba xorcieldeba SerCeviTi gamokvlevis

statistikuri meTodiT; samomxmareblo danaxarjebis struqtura saojaxo

biujetis statistikiT regularuli gamokvlevebis safuZvelze;

informacias fuladi masis Taobaze statistikuri organoebi iReben

bankebidan; mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebisa da gasavlebis balansi

saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenis

danaxarjebi.

inflaciis gasazomad gamoiyeneba agreTve fuladi erTeulis

msyidvelobiTunarianobis indeqsi, romelic gviCvenebs, Tu mocemul

periodSi ramdeniT gaufasurda an gaZlierda (ganmtkicda) fuladi

erTeuli (erovnuli valuta). igi fasebis indeqsis Sebrunebuli

maCvenebelia:

11

101

q p

q p

I I

p

(5.18)

magaliTad: fasebis indeqsma 2009 wlis dekembrSi 2008 wlis

dekemberTan SedarebiT Seadgina 115,2%. e. i. fasebi gaizarda 15,2%-iT. es kiimas niSnavs, rom laris msyidvelobiTunarianoba Semcirda 13,2% - iT.

(1 - 0,868 )x100 =13,2%.86801521

1,

,



220

umniSvnelovanes ekonomikur maCveneblebze inflaciis procesis

gavlenis analizi sxvadasxva aspeqtSi SesaZlebelia maCvenebelTa sistemis

daxmarebiT, romelic Semdegi jgufebisagan Sedgeba:

1. jamuri makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis deflatori;

2. maCveneblebi, romlebic axasiaTeben Semosavlebze, moxmarebasa da

cxovrebis doneze moqmed cvlilebebs fasebis zrdis Sedegad;

3. maCveneblebi, romlebic axasiaTeben inflaciis zrdis Sedegad

mogebisa da rentabelobis donis cvlilebebs.

makroekonomikur maCveneblebze fasebis zrdis zemoqmedebis

aRmofxvra msoflio statistikur Teorias da praqtikaSi deflirebis sami

sxvadasxva meTodiT xorcieldeba. TavisTavad deflireba ekonomikuri

maCveneblebidan inflaciis gavlenis gamoTiSvis procesia, romlis

ganxorcielebis mizniTac gamoiyeneba deflatorebi. deflatori (laT.

deflecto) ewodeba koeficients, “......romelic gamoiyeneba fulad

gamosaxulebaSi gaangariSebuli ekonomikuri maCveneblebis

gadasaangariSeblad, wina periodis donesTan maTi saerTo mniSvnelamde

dayvanis mizniT. ricxobrivad igi udris fasebis zrdis indeqss2.

erTmagi deflirebis procesSi deflatorebad gamoiyeneba

samomxmareblo fasebis an mTliani Sida produqtis indeqsi (mTliani Sida

produqtis indeqsi _ am maCveneblis saangariSo periodis anu mimdinare

fasebiT gamosaxuli sididisa da imave maCveneblis sabaziso periodis

fasebSi gamosaxuli sidideebis ganayofi). samomxmareblo saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis Rirebulebis indeqs-deflatorisagan gansxvavebiT, mTliani

Sida produqtis indeqs-deflatori asaxavs agreTve Sromis anazRaurebis,

ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizaciis da wminda gadasaxadebis2 nominaluri

masis cvalebadobas, rac gamowveulia fasebis cvalebadobiT.

1 ekonomikis enciklopediuri leqsikoni, Tsu gamomcemloba, Tb., 2005., gv. 205.

2 aq da sxva adgilebSi wminda gadasaxadebis cnebaSi igulisxmeba saerTo gadasaxadebisa

da subsidiebis sxvaoba.



221

indeqs-deflatori mTels msoflioSi gaiangariSeba paaSes fasebis

indeqsis formuliT:

01

11

pq

pq I

defl. ,

(5.19)

sadac wiladis mricxveli mTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebaa

saangariSo periodis fasebiT, xolo mniSvneli igive mTliani Sida

produqtis Rirebulebaa sabaziso periodis fasebiT.

imisaTvis, rom gavigoT mSp mimdinare periodis fasebSi, mSp mimdinare

fasebSi unda gavyoT indeqs-deflatorze, e. i.:

defl. I

pq pq 11

01

.

(5.20)

aseT gadafasebas ewodeba pirdapiri deflireba.

magaliTi:

saqarTveloSi MmTliani Sida produqtis Rirebulebam, rogorc zemoT

aRiniSna, 2009 wels Seadgina 11621 mln. lari, xolo 2008 wels 9824 mln.

lari. zrdam 118,3%, anu moimata 18,3%-iT. am wlebSi samomxmareblo fasebi

gaizarda 1,082-jer, rac SeiZleba gamoviyenoT indeqs-deflatorad.

maSasadame, 2009 wlis mTliani Sida produqti 2008 wlis fasebSi Seadgens:

29,10740082.1

1162101 pq mlrd. lars.

maSasadame, am wlebSi mTliani Sida produqtis realuri moculoba

Semcirda 880,71 mln. lariT.27

ormagi deflirebis meTodi ufro zusti meTodia, radgan igiiTvaliswinebs dargebis mixedviT fasebis sxvadasxva tendenciebs mTlian

gamoSvebul da moxmarebul nedleulze, masalebze, saTbobsa da sxva

Sualeduri moxmarebis elementebze. dargebis mixedviT warmoebs rogorc

27 saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli 2006. statistikis saxelmwifo departamenti. -Tb. 2007, gv. 136, 262.



222

produqciisa da momsaxurebis mTliani gamoSvebis, aseve Sualeduri

moxmarebis deflireba anu gadaangariSeba Sesadaris fasebSi (MmTliani

gamoSvebisaTvis deflatorad gamoiyeneba mTliani gamoSvebis fasebis

paaSes indeqsi, xolo Sualeduri moxmarebisaTvis – moxmarebuli

nedleulis, masalebis, saTbobis, naxevarfabrikatebisa da sxvaTa fasebis

deflatori). igi gamoiangariSeba formuliT:

fsm fgp I

pm

I

pq pq

1111

01 ,

sadac 01 pq - mSp damatebuli Rirebuleba mimdinare periodis

sabaziso donis fasebSi;

11 pq - mSp mimdinare fasebSi;

11 pm - Sualeduri moxmareba mimdinare fasebSi;

fgp I - fasis indeqsi gamoSvebul produqciaze;

fsm I - fasis indeqsi Sualedur moxmarebaze.

deflirebis mesame meTodi - es aris mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis

sabaziso donis eqstrapolaciis meTodi. Pproduqciis fizikuri moculobis

indeqsis safuZvelze eqstrapolaciis Sedegad miiReba mimdinare periodis

mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis done Sesadar fasebSi, xolo dargobrivi

maCveneblebis jami iZleva mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis saerTo

moculobas.

aRniSnuli SeiZleba Semdegnairad Caiweros:

00

00

0101 pq

pq

pq pq

,

(5.21)

sadac 01 pq - damatebuli produqciis Rirebulebaa Sesadar

fasebSi;

00

01

pq

pq

- produqciis fizikuri moculobis indeqsia;



223

00 pq - sabaziso periodis damatebuli Rirebulebaa.

inflaciis donisa da dinamikis erT-erT ZiriTad maCvenebels

warmoadgens `samomxmareblo kalaTis~ da mosaxleobis fuladiSemosavlebis urTierTdamokidebuleba. igi Semdegnairad gamoiTvleba:

Iinf= 1001

11

D

pq, (5.22)

sadac Iinf aris inflaciis done procentebSi;

11 pq - sasursaTo produqtebis Rirebuleba;

1 D - mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebi.

mosaxleobis fulad SemosavlebSi Seitaneba mosaxleobis yvelakategoriis Sromis anazRaureba, premiebi, xelfasze mudmivi danamati da

saSualebebi samivlinebo xarjebze, individualuri samewarmeo

saqmianobidan miRebuli Semosavlebi, uZrav qonebasa da kreditTan

dakavSirebuli operaciebi, pensiebi, stipendiebi da sxva socialuri

transferebi.

inflaciis TvalsaCino maxasiaTebels msyidvelunarianobis

maCvenebeli warmoadgens.msyidvelunarianobis dinamikis ganzogadebuli maCveneblebi iseTi

SefardebiTi maCveneblebia, romlebic gaangariSebulia saSualo xelfasis

SefardebiT calkeuli konkretuli saqonlis (Sinameurneobebis SerCeviTi

gamokvlevis monacemebidan gansazRvruli) fasze. aseTi maCveneblebi

axasiaTeben saSualo xelfasis msyidvelunarianobis dones da

ganisazRvreba naturalur erTeulebSi (kg., cali da sxv.), rac iZleva

konkretuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenis moculobis mniSvnelobas

mocemuli wlis fasebis saSualo donis pirobebSi. fasebis zrda ki

Cveulebriv iwvevs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis umetes saxeobebze SeZenis

moculobis Semcirebas.

fasebis zrda da saarsebo minimumis sidide pirdapir proporciul

damokidebulebaSia, e. i. fasebis zrda iwvevs saarsebo minimumis, kerZod

http://-sabaziso/

http://-sabaziso/

http://-sabaziso/

http://-sabaziso/



224

mosaxleobis saSualo suladobrivi Semosavlebis, saSualo Tviuri

xelfasis, danamatebis, pensiebis saSualo mniSvnelobaTa Semcirebas.

fasebis cvlilebis gavlenis analizis damoukidebel mimarTulebas

warmoadgens sawarmoebisa da dargebis finansuri maCveneblebis Seswavla.

amitom Cvens mier SerCeul maCvenebelTa mesame jgufs miekuTvneba

inflaciis zrdis Sedegad produqciis warmoebis, mogebisa da

rentabelobis cvlilebis maCveneblebi. Tanamedrove periodSi, roca

qveyanaSi aramomgebiani sawarmoebi sakmaod bevria, aseTi saxis maCvenebelTa

gaangariSebas udidesi mniSvneloba aqvs.

sawarmos, dargis safinanso mdgomareobaze inflaciis gavlenis

gasazomi ZiriTadi maCveneblebia mTlianad sasaqonlo masisa da misi

calkeuli produqtebis fasebis indeqsebi. aseTi maCveneblebis

gasaangariSeblad aucilebelia gamoviyenoT sawarmoebis Semosavlebisa da

gasavlebis, produqciis TviTRirebulebisa da sxva maCvenebelTa Sesaxeb

arsebuli statistikuri monacemebi.

produqciis warmoebis, ZiriTadi kapitalisa da kapitaldabandebebis,

mogebisa (zaralis) da rentabelobis statistikuri maCveneblebi, aseve maT

cvlilebaze moqmedi faqtorebi, ganisazRvreba saangariSo wlis faqtiuri

fasebis mixedviT. amitom dinamikaSi SeswavlisaTvis angariSgebebSi

mniSvnelovan problemas maCvenebelTa Sesadar fasebSi gadayvana

warmoadgens.

warmoebisa da Semosavlebis moculobisa da sawarmoo danaxarjebis

struqturis maCveneblebze inflaciis gavlenis gazomvisaTvis aucilebelia

fasebis indeqsebis sistemis gamoyeneba. kerZod: mogebisa da rentabelobis

faqtoruli analizisaTvis iyeneben fasebis indeqsebis oTx jgufs28. esenia:

1. produqciaze, samuSaosa da momsaxurebaze fasebis cvlilebisindeqsebi (`gasayidi fasebis~ indeqsebi) _ )(q p ;

28 Статистика финансов / Под. ред В.Н. Салина. – М.: Финансы и статистика, 2002, с. 580-581



225

2. nedleulis, masalebisa da saTbobis, e.i. materialur-teqnikuri

saSualebebis fasebis cvlilebis indeqsebi (`Sesyidvis fasebis~

indeqsebi) _ )(m p ;

3. ZiriTadi fondebis sabalanso Rirebulebisa da kapitaldabandebaTacvlilebis indeqsebi _ )(ok p ;

4. inflaciis Sedegad xelfasis cvlilebis indeqsebi _ F .

inflaciis indeqsebi gaiangariSeba produqciis an danaxarjebis

ucvleli struqturis pirobebSi miRebuli meTodikis mixedviT. Tu

cnobilia finansur Sedegebze moqmedi faqtorebi da fasebis indeqsebi,

maSin SeiZleba ganvsazRvroT mogebasa da rentabelobaze inflaciis

gavlenis zoma.inflaciuri procesebi mniSvnelovan gavlenas axdens produqciisa

da momsaxurebis warmoebis danaxarjebis yvela elementze. Tumca unda

aRiniSnos, rom danaxarjTa calkeul elementebze fasebis gavlenis

analizi garTulebulia bevri mizeziT, romelTa Soris erT-erTi aris

is, rom materialuri da sxva saxis resursebis gamoyeneba droSi ar

emTxveva maTi Sesyidvis periods. magaliTad, Tu sawarmos gaaCnia

sabaziso periodSi nayidi nedleulisa da masalebis maragebi da maTi

gamoyenebis momentSi saangariSo periodSi maTze fasebi gaizarda, maSin

dgeba problema, ra fasiT unda Sefasdes TviTRirebuleba. am sakiTxis

sxvadasxvagvari gadawyveta aisaxeba mogebis sidideze.

5.11. sadazRvevo bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi

sabazro ekonomikis funqcionireba xdeba bazrebis saSualebiT.

pirobiTad SegviZlia gamovyoT sasaqonlo da finansuri bazari. Cven

SevexebiT finansur bazars, romelic moicavs sadazRvevo bazars, fasiani

qaRaldebis bazars, savaluto bazars, sakredito bazars.



226

ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia sami tipis sadazRvevo

sistema, kerZo sadazRvevo sistema, saxelmwifo sadazRvevo sistema da

Sereuli.

dazRvevis bazris statistikis macvenebelTa sistema moicavs

absolutur sidideebs, SefardebiT sidideebs da saSualo

sidideebs. absoluturi sidideebia: sadazRvevo mindori, sadazRvevo

portfeli, sadazRvevo SemTxveveis ricxvi, dazaralebuli obieqtebis

sadazRvevo Tanxa da a.S.

SefardebiT sidideebs miekuთvneba:

Dა) dazRvevis zaralianobis done:

sadac W-anazRaurebeli zaralia;

dazaralebulo obieqtebis sadazRvevo Tanxa.

ბ)zaralebis fardobiTi sixSire, romelic gamoiTvleba formuliT:

sadac q-zaralebis raodenoba, xolo N-dasazRvevad miRebuli riskebis

raodenoba (xelSekrulebebis raodenoba)

g) sadazRvevo Tanxis done, romelic iangariSeba formuliT:

sadac sadazRvevo Tanxis donea, xolo dazaralebuli

obieqtebis sadazRvevo Tanxaa, xolo S yvela sadazRvevo obieqtis

sadazRvevo Tanxa.

d)sadazRvevo anazRaurebis done iangariSeba formuliT:

100n P

W K

sadac W aris anazRaurebeli zarali;

m P moziduli jamuri premia.

e) dazaralebuli obieqtebis xvedriTi wili gamoiTvleba formuliT:

100n

sS

W K

nS

100 N

qV

100

S

S K n

s

nS s K

100 N

n K n



227

sadac n aris dazaralebuli obieqtebis, xolo N-dazRveuli obieqtebis

saerTo ricxvi.

v) sadazRvevo SemTxvevebis sixSiris maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba formuliT:

sadac m aris sadazRvevo SemTxvevebis ricxvi, xolo N dazRveuli

obieqtebis ricxvi.

D დazღvevis statistika angariSobs iseT saSualo maCveneblebs,

rogoricaa: premiis moculoba saSualod, romelic modis erT sadazrvevo

obieqtze, zaralis moculoba saSualod, romelic modis erT sadazRvevo

obieqtze da a.S.

zaralis saSualo sidide gaiangariSeba mTlianad anazRaurebul

zaralis SefardebiT zaralebis raodenobasTan, rac formuliT

Semdegnairad SeiZleba iqnes gamosaxuli:

;S

qv

(5.23)

dazRvevis statistika iTvlis minimalur neto-premias. igi miiReba:

zaralebis fardobiTi sixSiris namravliT zaralis saSualo sidideze.

N neto premia warmoadgens sadazRvevo dafarvis TviTRirebulebas. is

gamoiyeneba sadazRvevo gadaxdebis uzrunvelsayofad. bruto-premia ki

aris am momsaxurebis sabazro fasi. masSi gaTvaliswinebulia sadazRvevo

momsaxurebasTan dakavSirebuli yvela sxva xarji. maT Soris

gadasaxadebic.

sadazRvevo saqmianobis analizisas gamoiyeneben iseT terminebs,

rogoricaa neto-tarifi, sadazRvevo tarifi, bruto-tarifi da minimalurineto-tarifi. sadazRvevo tarifi miiReba bruto-premiis gayofiT

sadazRvevo Tanxaze.

dazRvevis statistika angariSobs agreTve sadazRvevo riskis SemcirebiT

miRebuli mogebis sidides: gadaxdebis srul odenobas gamoakldeba

gadaxdebi xelSekrulebis vadis gasvlis gamo (miiReba gadaxdebi

100 N m K m



228

dazRveulis gardacvalebis SemTxvevaSi). riskobrivi premiis gaTvlil

odenobas gamoakldeba zemoTaRniSnuli, rac faqtiurad riskis

SemcirebiT miRebuli mogebaa.

5.12. savaluto bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi

სavaluto bazarze valutiT vaჭroba xorcieldeba valutis kursiT,

romelic gviCvenebs valutis erTi erTeulis fass gamosaxuls meore

valutiT. სavaluto kurss bazarze gansazRvravs moTxovna miwodeba,

romelic varirebadia, riTac yalibdeba Tavisuflad mcocavi savaluto

kursebi.

სavaluto kursis saxeebia: pirdapiri da Sebrunebuli, kros-kursi,

forvarduli, myidvelis, gamyidvelis, gacvliTi da sxv.

სtatistika angariSobs sasaqonlo jgufebis mixedviT

msyidvelobiTunarianobis paritetis indeqss Semdegi formuliT:

(5.24)

sadac aris ,,a” qveynis sasaqonlo jgufis an mTeli sasaqonlo

produqciis fizikuri moculoba;

da Sesabamisad ,,a” da ,,b” qveynis fasebia mocemul periodSi.

valutis gacvliTi kursis saxeebia: nominaluri, realuri,

nominalur-efeqturi da realur-efeqturi29.

or periodSi nominaluri gacvliTi kursis dinamikis

dasaxasiaთeblad angari შoben valutis nominaluri gacvliTi kursis

indeqss:

(5.25)

29 Ddetalurad ix. M.xmalaZeE statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. gamomcemloba meridiani.Tb. 2011, gv. 539-547.

,100

ba

aa

pq

pq I

b paq

aq

0

1

e

ek n



229

sadac aris valutis nominaluri gacvliTi kursi Sesabamisad

saangariso da sabaziso periodebSi.

valutis realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsi aigeba Semdegnairad:

(5.26)

sadac aris Sesabamisad saqarTvelosa da aSS-s samomxmareblo

fasebis indeqsebi.

an meorenairad: (5.27)

Tema 6. cxovrebis donis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

- mosaxleobis cxovrebis done, rogorc statistikis Seswavlis obieqti;

- humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi da misi ZiriTadi komponentebi; humanuri

ganviTarebis indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodologia;

- Sinameurneobebis statistikuri Seswavla; mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa da

danaxarjebis statistikuri maCveneblebi;

- mosaxleobis diferenciaciis maCveneblebi cxovrebis donis mixedviT; k. jinis

koeficientis gamoyeneba;

- samomxmareblo kalaTis gaangariSebis meTodika;

- siRaribis statistikuri Seswavla; siRaribis donis, siRrmisa da simwvavis

statistikuri maCveneblebi;

- mosaxleobis jandacvisa da ganaTlebis statistikuri maCveneblebi.

01,ee

b

a

I I

ee K

0

1

ba I I ,

b

a

n I

I

K k

1



230

6.1. mosaxleobis cxovrebis done, rogorc statistikis Seswavlis obieqti

mosaxleobis cxovrebis done warmoadgens umniSvnelovanes socialur-

ekonomikur kategorias. ekonomikur literaturaSi ar arsebobs misi erTxmad

miRebuli ganmarteba. Sesabamisad rTuldeba im statistikuri maCveneblebis

gansazRvra, romelTa saSualebiTac unda daxasiaTdes cxovrebis done.

yvelaze gavrcelebulia Sexeduleba, rom cxovrebis done ganisazRvreba im

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis erTobliobiT, romelsac flobs adamiani an adamianTa

jgufi. aris ganmartebac, sakmaod yuradsaRebi, rom cxovrebis done gulisxmobs

rogorc materialuri da sulieri dovlaTis moxmarebis moculobas, aseve maTze

adamianis moTxovnilebis dakmayofilebis xarisxs.

farTo gagebiT mosaxleobis cxovrebis done moicavs cxovrebis pirobebs,

Sromas, yofas, dasaqmebas, dasvenebas da ganaTlebas. am SemTxvevaSi ki laparakoben

`cxovrebis xarisxze~. saerTod ki SeiZleba iTqvas rom cxovrebis doneze

moqmedebs yvela movlena Tu procesi, rasac adgili aqvs qveyanaSi. ufro metic ama

Tu im qveynis mosaxleobis cxovrebis doneze SeiZleba mkveTri gavlena moaxdinos

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis cvlilebebma, risi magaliTebic arc ise iSviaTia

Soreul, axlo warsulSi Tu dRes.

ase rom cxovrebis donis statistikuri Sefaseba da gazomva garkveulwilad

problemuri Temaa. Tumca dReisaTvis miRebulia, rom cxovrebis donis erT-erT

mniSvnelovan maCvenebels warmoadgens Sinameurneobebis Semosavlebi, romlebic

gansazRvraven maT SesaZleblobebs SeiZinon saqonlis, momsaxurebis da aqtivebis

garkveuli moculoba. Semosavlebi warmoadgenen agreTve danazogebis wyaros,

romlebic SemdgomSi SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iyos sxvadasxva daniSnulebiT:

binebis, miwebis, Zvirfasi liTonebis da sxvaTa SesaZenad, romelTa flobac

adamianebs cxovrebis gaumjobesebis saSualebas aZlevs.

cxovrebis done SeiZleba Seswavlili iqnes sxvadasxva WrilSi:

1. mTeli mosaxleobis mixedviT;

2. qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis mixedviT;

3. regionebis mixedviT;

4. socialuri jgufebis mixedviT;

5. Sinameurneobebi Semosavlebis sxvadasxva donis mixedviT;



231

6. Sinameurneobebi maTSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvis mixedviT.

cxovrebis donis statistikis winaSe dgas rigi amocanebi, romelTagan

ZiriTadia cxovrebis donis da dinamikis daxasiaTeba, mosaxleobis Semosavlebis

da moxmarebis doneebis da struqturis Seswavla, aseve Semosavlebisa da

moxmarebis doneebSi da struqturaSi momxdari cvlilebebis asaxva-analizi,

xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebis dagrovebis analizi, siRaribis donis da

sazRvrebis dadgena.

cxovrebis donis statistikis winaSe dasmuli amocanebis gadawyvetas

statistika axdens maCvenebelTa sistemis daxmarebiT, romelTagan yvelaze

mniSvnelovania sakiTxi: SeiZleba Tu ara cxovrebis done daxasiaTdes erTi

romelime ganmazogadebeli maCvenebliT.

sazogadoebis ganviTarebis da Sesabamisad keTildReobis ZiriTad

determinants warmoadgens ekonomika. amitom cxovrebis donis ZiriTad

ganmazogadebel maCveneblad SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes ekonomikis mdgomareobis

maxasiaTeblebi, rogoricaa mTliani Sida produqtis (mSp) moculoba, mTliani

erovnuli Semosavlis, wminda erovnuli Semosavlis da wminda erovnuli

gankargvadi Semosavlis moculoba rogorc absolutur gamosaxulebaSi, ise erT

mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT. qvemoT motanilia Sesabamisi monacemebi da

gaangariSebebi.

cxrili 6.1

cxovrebis donis ganmazogadebeli maCveneblebi

saqarTveloSi 2000-2008 wlebSi1

absolutur sidideebSi

(mimdinare fasebSi;

mln. lari)

erT mcxovrebze

gaangariSebiT, larebSi

2000 2005 2008 2000 2005 2008

mTliani Sida produqti 6043,1 11621,0 19074,9 1362 2689 4353

mTliani erovnuli

Semosavali6274,9 11791,7 18818,0 1415 2729 4292

1 cxrili gaangraiSebulia: saqarTvelos statistikuri weliwdeuli. 2006, Tb., 2007, gv. 18,146.



232

wminda erovnuli

Semosavali5643,2 10669,4 17060,0 1272 2469 3893

wminda erovnuli

gankargvadi Semosavali5909,7 11318,9 18656,6 1332 2619 4257

rogorc cxrilSi motanili monacemebidan Cans, mTliani Sida produqti

saqarTveloSi 2000-2008 ww. gaizarda 3,2-jer, xolo erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT

_ 3,2-jer.

Tu: Q-Ti aRvniSnavT mTlian Sida produqtis da erovnuli Semosavlis

maCveneblebs mocemuli wlisTvis;

S-iT mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnobas amave wlisTvis, maSin erT

mcxovrebze mTliani Sida produqtis da erovnuli Semosavlis moculoba

X gaiangariSeba, rogorc

Q X =

Q

S .

(6.1)

aRniSnuli ganmazogadebeli maCveneblebis arsebiT nakls warmoadgens is

garemoeba, rom isini Seicaven iseT elementebs, romlebic pirdapir ar arian

dakavSirebuli cxovrebis donesTan. magaliTad mSp moicavs armiis, policiis,

saxelmwifo aparatis da a.S. Senaxvis xarjebs. amitom zogierTi ekonomisti

sruliad marTebulad gvTavazobs zemoTmotanil makroekonomikur maCveneblebTan

erTad visargebloT CvilTa mokvdaobis da axladdabadebulis sicocxlis

mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivobis maCveneblebiT. am maCveneblebis upiratesoba

isaa, rom maTSi koncentrirebulad aisaxeba qveynis cxovrebis ekonomikuri,

samedicino, ekologiuri da a.S. saerTo jamSi raodenobrivi da xarisxobrivi

mxare. Tu am TvalsazrisiT mivudgebiT, 2000-2008 wlebSi cxovrebis done

saqarTveloSi dadebiT cvlilebas ganicdis, ramdenadac CvilTa mokvdaobis

koeficienti 2000-2008 ww. 22,5 --dan mcirdeba 17,0 --mde,30 rac dadebiTi movlenaa.

imavdroulad sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivoba 2000-2008 wlebSi

71,3 wlidan izrdeba 74,2 wlamde.31

30 www.statistics.ge31 www.statistics.ge



233

cxovrebis donis maxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba agreTve realuri xelfasis

indeqsi an TviT realuri xelfasi, romelic miiReba nominaluri xelfasis

gayofiT samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsze. amave rangis maCvenebels miekuTvneba

laris msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi, romelic fasebis indeqsis Sebrunebul

sidides warmoadgens. Tanamedrove pirobebSi cxovrebis donis amsaxvel erT-erT

ganmazogadebel maCveneblad miCneulia samomomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi (sfi).

saqarTvelos statistikis mier is gaiangariSeba rogorc ori periodis fasebis

saSualo donis Tanafardoba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fiqsirebuli kalaTis

mixedviT, romelsac SeiZens qalaqis mosaxleoba. saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

fasebi, romlebic gamoiyeneba sfi-s gamosaTvlelad, miiReba fasebze SerCeviTi

statistikuri dakvirvebiT. samomxmareblo kalaTSi Sedis 311 dasaxelebis

saqoneli da momsaxureba.32 moxmarebis struqtura (indeqsis wonebi – moxmarebuli

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moculoba anu q) miRebulia Sinameurneobebis

gamokvlevaTa safuZvelze. samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi gamoiTvleba

laspeiresis indeqsiT.

1 0

0 0

p q=

p p q,

J

(6.2)

sadac pJ _ aris samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi;

P - calkeuli saxeobis saqonlis da momsaxurebis fasi an tarifi

mimdinare da sabaziso periodebSi;

0q _ SeZenili calkeuli saqonlis da momsaxurebis moculoba

sabaziso periodSi.

Tu cxovrebis dones saqarTveloSi SevafasebT sfi-T, aRmoCndeba, rom 2008

wels man Seadgina 110,0%, rac saqarTveloSi 2007-2008 wlebSi fasebis 10,0%-iT

matebas moaswavebs, Sesabamisad ki – cxovrebis donis gauaresebas.

Tu cxovrebis dones davaxasiaTebT nominaluri da realuri xelfasiT,

aRmoCndeba Semdegi: nominaluri xelfasi saqarTveloSi 2000 w. Seadgenda 72,3

lars, xolo 2008 wels – 535 lars. sfi Sesabamisad Seadgenda – 2000 w. – 104,6%,

2008 w. – 110,0%. e. i. realuri xelfasi tolia:

32 sfi-s formirebaSi monawileobs 282 dasaxelebis saqoneli da momsaxureba.



234

72, 32000 w. 69, 1 laris;

1, 046

laris

1,1

535w. 4,4862008

statistikaSi sfi cnobilia aseve rogorc inflaciis maxasiaTebeli

mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri maCvenebeli. is, rom sfi 2000 w. Seadgens 104,2%, xolo

2008 w. – 110,0%, TavisTavad metyvelebs saqarTveloSi inflaciis donis zrdaze.

Tu damatebiT argumentebs moviSveliebT, aRmoCndeba, rom SedarebiT dabali

inflaciis pirobebSi, 2000 wels,. realuri xelfasi Seadgens nominaluri

xelfasis 95,6% (69,1 : 72,3 100 95, 6%), xolo SedarebiT maRali inflaciis

pirobebSi,

2008 w. – 90,9% ( %9,90100535:4,486 ).

cxovrebis dones axasiaTeben kidev Semdegi indeqsebiT:

_ cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsiT, romelic warmoadgens samomxmareblo fasebis

harmoniul indeqss da gaiangariSeba formuliT:

11

11

1 pq

i

pq I p , (6.3)

sadac i _ aris calkeuli saxeobis produqciis da momsaxurebis fasis an

tarifis individualuri indeqsi.

_ mosaxleobis msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi, romelic samomxmareblo

indeqsis Sebrunebuli sididea. kerZod:

11

11

1

1

pq

pqi

I I

sfi.

, (6.4)

sadac aRniSvnebi igivea rac 6.3 formulaSi.33

6.2. humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi da misi gaangariSebis meTodologia

33 formula 12.8 aris laris msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi.



235

gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis ganviTarebis programis specialistebis

jgufis mier 1998w. moxsenebaSi – adamianis ganviTarebis Sesaxeb (oqsfordi, 1998)

SemoTavazebuli iqna cxovrebis donis erTiani agregirebuli maCvenebeli _

àdamianuri potencialis ganviTarebis indeqsi~, romelsac kidev uwodeben

humanuri ganviTarebis indeqss (hgi).

hgi warmoadgens sami indeqsis saSualo ariTmetikuls, romlebic asaxaven

cxovrebis donis umniSvnelovanes aspeqtebs; rogoricaa:

1. sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivoba axlad dabadebulisTvis;

2. mosaxleobis ganaTlebis miRweuli done;

3. mSp moculoba erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT, gamosaxuli aSS dolarebSi.

TiToeuli komponentis indeqsi gamoiTvleba formuliT:

Jax

X

X X

X

i

i i

i min

m min

-

,

(6.5)

sadac Xi - aris ì-ri maCveneblis faqtobrivi mniSvneloba;

axX

i m da X

i min - i-ri maCveneblis maqsimaluri da minimaluri

mniSvnelobebi Sesabamisad.

gamovTvaloT hgi saqarTvelosTvis 2000 da 2008 wlebisTvis. pirveli

maCvenebelia axladdabadebulisTvis sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo

xangrZlivobis indeqsi, J1, romlis minimalur mniSvnelobad, Xi min

-dRevandel

msoflioSi miRebulia 25 weli, xolo maqsimalur mniSvnelobad -ax

Xi m

- 85 weli.

sicocxlis saSualo xangrZlivoba saqarTveloSi - Xi 2000 w. Seadgenda 71,3

wels, 2008 w. – 74,2 wels.

CavsvaT formulaSi Sesabamisi mniSvnelobebi da miviRebT;

J1 (2000 w.)71, 3 25 46, 3

= 0, 77

85 25 60

J1 (2008 w.) 82,060

2,49

2585

252,74

rogorc vxedavT, sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivobis indeqsi

0,77-dan gaizarda 0,82-mde.



236

ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi J2 miiReba rogorc 15 wlis da ufrosi

asakis mosaxleobis wera-kiTxvis indeqsis 2/3-is da yvela safexuris (dawyebiTi,

saSualo, saSualo-specialuri da umaRlesi) saswavlo dawesebulebebSi

moswavleTa xvedri wilis indeqsis 1/3-is jami.

jer gamovTvaloT ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis wera-kiTxvis indeqsi i2.1.

X min miiReba 0, xolo axXm - 100% tolad, rac imas niSnavs, rom wera-kiTxvis

maCvenebeli meryeobs 0-dan 100%-is farglebSi.

mosaxleobis 2002 wlis sayovelTao aRweris monacemebiT wera-kiTxvis

maCvenebelma saqarTveloSi Seadgina 99,6%. maSin Sesabamis formulaSi CasmiT wera-

kiTxvis indeqsi i 2.1 tolo iqneba:

i 2.1

99, 6 0 99, 6= 0, 996

100 0 100

indeqsi 0,996 erTi da igive iqneba 2000 da 2008 wlisTvis ramdenadac es

maCvenebeli miiReba mxolod mosaxleobis aRweriT.

moswavleTa xvedri wilis indeqsi i 2.2 aseve miRebulia, rom meryeobs 0-dan

100% farglebSi. moswavleTa xvedri wili iangariSeba 24 wlamde asakis

mosaxleobis mimarT. 2000 wels 0-24 wlis mosaxleoba saqarTveloSi Seadgenda

1637,6 aTass, xolo moswavleTa ricxvi yvela donis saswavlebelSi 976,9 aTass.

2005 wlisTvis monacemebi Sesabamisad Seadgens 1481,3 aTass da 830,0 aTass. am

monacemebze dayrdnobiT gaviangariSebT moswavleTa xvedriT wils - i 2.2.

2000 wlisTvis i 2.2976, 9

0, 5961637, 6

2008 wlisTvis 560,03,1481

0,83022 i

amis Semdeg ganaTlebis miRweuli donis indeqsi J2 gamoiTvleba formuliT;

J2 = i 2.1 • 2/3 + i 2.2 • 1/3.

(6.6)

Sesabamisi monacemebis mocemul formulaSi CasmiT miviRebT:



237

J2 (2000 w.) = 0,996 • 2/3 +0,596 • 1/3 = 0,664 + 0,2 = 0,864

J2 (2008 w.) = 0,996 • 2/3 +0,560 • 1/3 = 0,664 + 0,186 = 0,850

rogorc vxedavT mocemuli indeqsebis mniSvnelobebi garkveulad mcirdeba.

mSp-s realuri moculobis indeqsis J3-is gamosaTvlelad saWiroa mSp-s

moculoba erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT erovnul valutaSi gadaangariSebuli

iqnes aSS dolarebSi. mSp-s moculoba saqarTveloSi erT mcxovrebze

gaangariSebiT 2000 wels Seadgenda 1362 lars, xolo 2008 wels 4348 lars.

saqstatis monacemebiT dolaris kursi larTan mimarTebaSi 2000 wels Seadgenda

1,9754, xolo 2008 wels – 1,4902-s.

Sesabamisad mSp-sP moculoba erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT gamosaxuli

larebSi, dolarebSi gadaiangariSeba Semdegnairad.

2000 w.1362

689 dolars;1, 9754

2008 w. 29184902,1

4348 dolars.

amis Semdeg Sesabamis formulaSi SetaniT gaviangariSebT Sesabamis indeqss.

amasTan Cvens mier gamoyenebuli indeqsi misaRebia im SemTxvevaSi, Tu erT

mcxovrebze gaangariSebuli mSp, gamoxatuli dolarebSi, e.i. faqtobrivi Xi ar

aRemateba an udris 5990 aSS dolars. amasTan, Xi min mniSvnelobad miRebulia 100

dolari, xoloax

Xi m

- 5448 dolari.

Sesabamisi gamoTvlebiT miviRebT:

11,05348

589

1005448

100689)2000(3

w. I ;

527,0

5348

2818

1005448

1002918)2008(3

w. I .

rogorc vxedavT, indeqsi 4,8-jer gaizarda.

mocemuli indeqsebis gamoTvlebis Semdeg hgi gamoiTvleba rogorc am

indeqsebis saSualo ariTmetikuli:



238

J =3

1 2 3+ + J J J

.

(6.7)

Seabamisi monacemebis SetaniT miviRebT:

581,03

11,0864,077,02000

w. I e.i. 58,1%;

698,03

527,0746,082,02008

w. I e.i. 69,8%;

rogorc vxedavT, rva wlis ganmavlobaSi hgi saqarTveloSi 58,1-dan gaizarda

69,8%-mde, rac mTlianad mSp warmoebis zrdaze modis da uaxloes momavalSi

indeqsis zrdas mis xarjze unda velodoT, ramdenadac sicocxlis xangrZlivobis

zrda sakmaod rTulia, xolo moswavleTa xvedri wilis zrda ki SezRudulia

Sesabamisi asakobrivi kontingentiT. imavdroulad, unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom

ganaTlebis indeqsi 2000-2008 wlebSi ara Tu gaizarda, aramed piriqiT, 0,864-dan

Semcirda 0,746-mde, e.i. 11,8%-iT.

2010 wels hgi-is gaangariSebis meTodologiam mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi

ganicada, amitom aRniSnuls “axali meTodologiis” saxeliT moixsenieben.

axali meTodologiiT:

1. sicocxlis xangrZlivobis indeqsi (LEI) =

2.63

20 LE

LE – sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobaa axalSobilTaTvis, Tu maTi

sicocxlis ganmavlobaSi SenarCunebuli iqneba dabadebisas arsebuli

asakobrivi mokvdaobis tendenciebi;

2. ganaTlebis indeqsi (EI) =951.0

EYSI MYSI

2.1 swavlis saSualo xangrZlivobis indeqsi (MYSI) =2.13

MYS

MYS – 25 wlis da zeviT asakis mosaxleobis mier mTeli sicocxlis

ganmavlobaSi miRebuli ganaTlebis xangrZlivobaa ganaTlebis TiToeuli

safexuris Teoriuli xangrZlivobis gaTvaliswinebiT(wlebSi);



239

2.2 swavlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis indeqsi (EYSI) =6.20

EYS

EYS – saskolo asakis bavSvis swavlis mosalodneli xangrZlivoba, Tu misi

sicocxlis manZilze SenarCundeba ganaTlebis miRebis mimdinare

tendenciebi;

3. Semosavlebis indeqsi (II) =)163ln()108211ln(

)163ln()ln(

GNIpc

GHIpc – qveynis mTliani erovnuli Semosavali erT sul mosaxleze

msyidvelunarianobis paritetebiT, aSS dolari.

saboloo saxiT ki, hgi Semdegi saxiT Caiwereba:

3 II EI LEI HDI

hgi maqsimaluri mniSvneloba Teoriulad SeiZleba iyos 100,0%, rac niSnavs,

rom sazogadoebam mTlianad gamoavlina Tavisi potencialuri SesaZleblobebi.

indeqsis mniSvneloba saqarTveloSi 2008 w. – 69,8% niSnavs, rom qveyanas Tavisi

adamianuri potencialis 30,2% realizebuli ara aqvs (100 - 69,8 = 30,2). 2007 wels

Jurnalma ekonomistma (The Economist) gamoaqveyna cxovrebis xarisxiT msoflioSi

pirvel adgilze myofi oci qveyana. reitingi eyrdnoba adamianuri ganviTarebis

indeqsis mniSvnelobas.

cxovrebis xarisxis mixedviT samoTxed dedamiwaze miCneulia norvegia,

romelmac reitingSi daikava pirveli adgili. meore da mesame adgils ikaveben

islandia da avstralia. meoce adgili daikava axalma zelandiam. oceulSi

Sevidnen aseve Svecia da dania, romlebic tradiciulad cnobili arian cxovrebis

maRali xarisxiT. aSS reitingSi ikavebs merve adgils.

zemoTganxiluli cxovrebis donis ganmazogadebel maCveneblebs didi

mniSvneloba aqvT, magram srulad ver axasiaTeben cxovrebis dones, ramdenadac

cxovreba gacilebiT mravalaspeqtiania, rac moiTxovs sxva maCveneblebis

gamoyenebasac. cxovrebis donis maxasiaTebeli maCvenebelTa sistema gaerom

SeimuSava 1960 wels, romelic gadamuSavebuli saxiT bolo variantad

warmodgenili iqna 1978 wels da moicavs maCvenebelTa 12 jgufs:

1. Sobadoba, mokvdaoba da sxva demografiuli maCveneblebi;



240

2. cxovrebis sanitarul-higienuri pirobebi;

3. sasursaTo saqonlis moxmareba;

4. sabinao pirobebi;

5. ganaTleba da kultura;

6. Sromisa da dasaqmebis pirobebi;

7. mosaxleobis Semosavlebi da xarjebi;

8. cxovrebis Rirebuleba da samomxmareblo fasebi;

9. satransporto saSualebebi;

10. dasvenebis organizacia;

11. socialuri uzrunvelyofa;

12. adamianis Tavisufleba.

amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi SemuSavebuli maCvenebelTa sistema

iTvaliswinebs cxovrebis donis iseT sakiTxebsac, rogoricaa: garemos dacva,

erovnuli Tavdacva da moqalaqeTa samarTlebrivi dacva.1

6.3. mosaxleobis Semosavlebis statistikuri maCveneblebi

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis statistika axasiaTebs Semosavlebis absolutur

moculobas, Semosavlebis dones, dinamikas da struqturas.

Semosavlebis absoluturi moculoba an kidev mosaxleobis mTliani

Semosavlebi warmoadgens saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mier fulad erTeulebSi

gamoxatul Semosavlebis mTlian Tanxas. mocemuli maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba

saSualod TveSi, kvartalSi an wlis ganmavlobaSi. mosaxleobis mTliani

Semosavlebi Sedgeba fuladi da arafuladi Semosavlebisgan, romlebic Tavis

mxriv iyofa sxvadasxva saxeebad. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani Semosavlebis

moculoba da struqtura qalaqisa da soflis mixedviT 2008 wlisTvis, saSualod

TveSi motanilia qvemoT, cxril 6.3-Si.

cxrili 6.2

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani Semosavlebis moculoba

da struqtura qalaqisa da soflis mixedviT 2008

wlisTvis saSualod TveSi2 (mln. lari)

1 daviT kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005, gv. 246-247



241

saerTo moculoba

mln. lari

struqtura

procentulad

qalaqi sofeli sul qalaqi sofeli sul

fuladi Semosavlebi da

transfertebi 245,7 135,8 381,5 81,0 57,0 70,4

daqiravebuli Sromidan 132,7 34,8 167,5 43,7 14,6 30,9

TviTdasaqmebidan 39,5 13,8 53,3 13,0 5,8 9,8

soflis meurneobis

produqciis gayidvidan2,2 28,4 30,6 0,7 11,9 5,7

qonebidan (gaqiravebidan,

procenti anabridan) 2,5 1,0 3,4 0,8 0,4 0,6

pensiebi, stipendiebi,

daxmarebebi29,5 34,1 63,5 9,7 14,3 11,7

ucxoeTidan miRebuli

gzavnilebi13,1 6,4 19,5 4,3 2,7 3,6

axloblebisagan miRebuli

fuli26,4 17,3 43,7 8,7 7,3 8,1

arafuladi Semosavlebi 13,7 73,6 87,3 4,5 30,9 16,1

Semosavlebi sul 259,4 209,4 468,8 85,5 87,9 86,5

sxva fuladi saxsrebi 44,1 28,8 72,9 14,5 12,1 13,5

qonebis gayidvidan 8,4 2,1 10,5 2,8 0,9 1,9

fulis sesxeba an

danazogis gamoyeneba35,7 26,7 62,4 11,8 11,2 11,5

fuladi saxsrebi, sul 289,8 164,6 454,4 95,5 69,1 83,9

fuladi da arafuladi

Semosavlebi, sul303,5 238,2 541,8 100,0 100,0 100,0

2 saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi 2008. statistikuri krebuli. Tb., 2009. gv. 28-31.



242

rogorc vxedavT 2008 wels qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis mTliani

Semosavlebis absoluturi maCveneblebi, Sesabamisad – 303,5 da 238,2 milioni lari

erTmaneTisgan 65,3 milioni lariT gansxvavdeba. aseve mniSvnelovani gansxvavebebia

qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis Semosavlebis struqturaSi. kerZod, qalaqis

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis mniSvnelovani Semadgenelia Semosavali daqiravebuli

Sromidan (43,7%) da TviTdasaqmebidan (13,0%), maSin rodesac soflis mosaxleobis

Semosavlebi ZiriTadad yalibdeba soflis meurneobis produqciis gayidvebidan

(11,9%) da arafuladi Semosavlebidan (30,9%). saqstati arafulad SemosavlebSi

angariSobs – sakuTari moxmarebisaTvis warmoebul, humanitaruli daxmarebiT an

axloblebisagan usasyidlod miRebuli produqciis Rirebulebas, gamoTvlils

gansaxilavi periodis saSualo fasebiT.

Semosavlebis struqturis analizi kidev erT damafiqrebel garemoebaze

migviTiTebs. saqme isaa, rom qonebis gayidva, fulis sesxeba an danazogis

gamoyeneba samomxmareblo xarjebis gawevis mizniT – saqarTvelos mosaxleobis

Semosavlebis 13,5% Seadgens, rac sakmaod uaryofiT maCvenebels warmoadgens, Tu

gaviTvaliswinebT, rom gaeros mier 1993 wels miRebul erovnul angariSTa

sistemaSi Semosavlis gaangariSebisas is eyrdnoba ingliseli ekonomistis

j.xiksis gansazRvras – Semosavali esaa maqsimaluri Tanxa, romelic SeiZleba

daixarjos moxmarebaze garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi im pirobiT, rom

sameurneo subieqtis aqtivebi amave periodSi ar Semcirdeba. ra Tqma unda, qonebis

gayidva, fulis sesxeba da danazogis gamoyeneba niSnavs sakuTari kapitalis

Semcirebas. Sesabamisad 2008 wlisTvis saqarTvelos mosaxleobis saSualoTviur

Semosavals 541,8 milions rom gamovakloT aRniSnuli 13,5%, e.i. fulad

gamosaxulebaSi 72,9 milioni lari, am gziT koreqtirebuli Semosavlis

maCvenebeli 541,8 milioni laridan Semcirdeba 468,9 milion laramde.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis dones gvixasiaTebs Semosavlebis moculoba erT

mcxovrebze da/an erT Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT, larebSi.

am mizniT Semosavlis moculoba gaiyofa erT SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis

saSualowliur ricxvze, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi Sinameureobebis ricxvze.

Sesabamisi monacemebi motanilia cxrilSi.

cxrili 6.3

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani Semosavlebis donis da



243

dinamikis maCveneblebi 1997-2008 wlebSi saSualod TveSi1

wlebi

Semosavlebi larebSi procentulad 1997 welTan

erT

mcxovrebzegaangariSebiT

erT

SinameurneobazegaangariSebiT

maCvenebeli

erT

mcxovrebze

maCvenebeli erT

Sinameurneobaze

1997 55 197 100,0 100,0

1998 58 203 105,5 103,0

1999 63 222 114,5 112,7

2000 61 231 111,0 117,3

2001 63 242 114,5 122,8

2002 77 289 140,0 146,7

2003 80 302 145,5 153,3

2004 85 320 154,5 162,4

2005 92 347 167,3 176,1

2008 146 537 266,2 272,6

rogorc vxedavT mosaxleobis saerTo Semosavlebis maCvenebeli erT

mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT 1997-2008 wlebSi 55 laridan gaizarda 146 laramde, e.i.

266,2%-iT, xolo erT Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT _ 197 laridan 537 laramde,

e.i. 272,6%-iT. Semosavlebis donis zrdis tempebi cxrilSi gaangariSebulia

sabaziso xerxiT, Tumca maTi gaangariSeba SeiZleba jaWvuri xerxiTac.Semosavlebis donis maCveneblebi gaiangariSeba rogorc mTliani

Semosavlebis, aseve fuladi da arafuladi Semosavlebis da maTi Semadgeneli

nawilebis mixedviT.

1 cxrili Sedgenilia: saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi 2004-2005. Tb., 2005, gv. 59-60.saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi 2008. Tb., 2009, gv. 29-30.



244

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis mixedviT ganawilebis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba

rigi maCveneblebi, rogoricaa: mosaxleobis Semosavlebis ganawileba deciluri

jgufebis mixedviT, mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri

koeficienti, fondebis koeficienti, Semosavlebis koncentraciis koeficienti

(jinis koeficienti), modaluri da medianuri Semosavali da sxv.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis ganawileba deciluri jgufebis mixedviT,

gulisxmobs mosaxleobis dayofas 10 jgufad. pirvel jgufSi gaerTianebulia

yvelaze dabali Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis Semosavlebi, xolo meaTe

jgufSi yvelaze maRali Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis Semosavlebi. aseT

jgufebs ewodeba deciluri jgufebi, anu 10 nawilad dayofili jgufebi.

2005 wels saqarTveloSi saSualod TveSi mosaxleobis yvelaze dabali, 1-li

jgufis fuladi Semosavlebi Seadgenda 2,1 milion1 lars, anu mTeli mosaxleobis

Semosavlebis 0,8%, xolo yvelaze Semosavliani me-10 jgufis Semosavlebi – 107,1

milions, anu Semosavlebis 39,3%. rogorc vxedavT Tanafardoba yvelaze

Semosavlian me-10-e jgufsa da yvelaze dabalSemosavlian jgufebs Soris

absolutur sidideebSi gamoisaxeba rogorc 51:1-Tan, xolo fulad SemosavlebSi

xvedri wilis mixedviT- rogorc 49:1-Tan.

sainteresoa imis aRniSvna, rom yvelaze dabalSemosavliani jgufis

Semosavlebis 62,5% modis pensiebze, stipendiebze da daxmarebebze, maSin rodesac

yvelaze maRalSemosavlian jgufSi mocemuli muxli mxolod 3,0% Seadgens. am

jgufSi Semosavlebis 66,6% 2005 wels modis: daqiravebul Sromaze,

TviTdasaqmebaze, fulis sesxebaze da danazogis gamoyenebaze.

mosaxleobis ganawileba (struqtura) fuladi Semosavlebis mixedviT

decilur jgufebSi saqarTveloSi 2000-2005 wlebSi mocemulia cxrilSi.

cxrili 6.4.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis ganawileba deciluri jgufebis

mixedviT saqarTveloSi 2000-2005 wlebSi.1

(%)

1 am maCveneblebSi ar Sedis arafuladi Semosavlebi.1 cxrili Sedgenilia: d. kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005. gv. 236 , saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb., 2005. gv. 97-98



245

mosaxleobis

jgufebi

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

I 1,0 1,2 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,8

II 2,3 2,8 2,4 2,2 1,9 2,0

III 3,7 3,8 3,5 3,5 3,0 3,1

IV 5,3 5,1 4,7 4,5 4,2 4,3

V 6,5 6,4 5,9 5,9 5,6 5,6

VI 8,2 7,8 7,1 7,3 7,3 7,2

VII 9,8 9,8 8,9 9,1 9,2 9,1

VIII 12,2 11,1 11,2 11,3 12,1 11,9

IX 15,6 15,6 15,7 15,6 16,5 16,7

X 35,5 36,3 39,6 39,8 39,6 39,3

sul 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

saqarTveloSi 2000-2005 wlebSi izrdeba IX da X maRalSemosavliani jgufebis

xvedri wili da mcirdeba danarCeni dabalSemosavliani jgufebis xvedri wili,

rac mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis gaRrmavebaze miuTiTebs.

Semosavlebis diferenciacias vaxasiaTebT Semdegi statistikuri maCveneblebiT:

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri koeficienti gviCvenebs

ramdenjer aRemateba yvelaze mdidari mosaxleobis 10%-is minimaluri Semosavlebi

yvelaze Raribi 10%-is maqsimalur Semosavlebs2

.

9d

1

dK =

d.

(6.8)

2 Экономическая статистика. Под ред. проф. Ю.Н. Иванова, М., 2006, с. 626



246

sadacd

K _ Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri koeficientia;

9d da

1d _ mecxre da pirveli decili.

igulisxmeba, rom9

d aris10

d decilis minimaluri Semosavlebi. cxrilSi 6.4-

is mixedviT aRniSnuli koeficientebi 2000 wels tolia: 15,6 =15,6,1

xolo 2005

wels _16,7

=20,90,8

rac am periodSi saqarTveloSi Semosavlebis diferenciaciis

gaRrmavebaze miuTiTebs.

fondebis koeficienti gviCvenebs ramdenjer aRemateba yvelaze maRali

Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis 10%-is saSualosuladobrivi Semosavali TveSi

yvelaze dabali Semosavlebis mqone 10%-is analogiur maCvenebels.1

_

10

1

d K =

d

(6.9)

sadac - 10

-d da 1d

saSualosuladobrivi Semosavalia TveSi Sesabamis

decilur jgufebSi.

ramdenadac deciluri jgufis saSualo Semosavali _

D

S

_

,d

sadac D _ deciluri jgufis mTliani Semosavalia, xolo S - jgufis

ricxovnoba. amasTan jgufebis ricxovnoba Tanabaria da SerCevis 10%-is tolia,

maSin fondebis koeficienti SeiZleba gamovTvaloT, rogorc:

1

10110 : D

D

S

D

S

D K D , e.i.

(6.10)

deciluri jgufebis mTliani Semosavlebis Tanafardoba, romelic ufro

martivia da igive Sedegs iZleva. Sesabamisi gaangariSebiT 2005 wlisTvis miviRebT:

D

10

1

D 107=

D 2, 1K

,1 mln51 : 1 - TTan,

mln

1 Экономическая статистика. Под ред. проф. Ю.Н. Иванова, М., 2006, с. 626



247

rac niSnavs, rom 2005 wels saqarTveloSi yvelaze maRalSemosavliani

adamianebis 10,0%-is saSualosuladobrivi Semosavali TveSi yvelaze dabali

Semosavlebis mqone 10,0%-is analogiur maCvenebels aRemateba 51-jer.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis dasaxasiaTeblad erT-erT

mniSvnelovan maCvenebels warmoadgens jinis koeficienti. korado jini iyo (1884-

1965 ww.) XX saukunis erT-erTi gamoCenili statistikosi. misi samecniero

interesebis sferoSi Sedioda Teoriuli da sabalanso statistikis, demografiis,

sociologiis da konkretuli ekonomikis problemebi. Tavisi samecniero

moRvaweobis periodSi Ggamoaqveyna daaxloebiT aTasi mecnieruli naSromi. misi

naSromebi gadaTargmnilia bevr evropul enebze.34

jinis koeficienti an kidev rogorc uwodeben jinis Semosavlebis

koncentraciis koeficienti gvixasiaTebs uTanabrobas mosaxleobis Semosavlebis

da danaxarjebis ganawilebaSi. misi sidide meryeobs 0-dan 1-mde. amasTan rac ufro

metad uaxlovdeba misi mniSvneloba 1-s, miT meti Semosavlebi koncentrirdeba

mosaxleobis calkeuli jgufebis xelSi.

jinis koeficienti gamoiTvleba Semdegi saxiT:

iiii q pq p K 11 (6.11)

sadac i p aris _ mosaxleobis xvedri wili saSualo Semosavlebis mixedviT,

nazardi jamiT, koeficientebSi;

iq _ Semosavlebis moculobis xvedri wili saSualo Semosavlebis

mixedviT, nazardi jamiT, koeficientebSi.

movitanoT pirobiTi magaliTi.

cxrili 6.5

mosaxleobis ganawileba saSualo Semosavlebis mixedviT

s a S u a

l o

s u a l

m o s a x

l e o b i

s

S e m o s a

v l e b i

j g u f e

b i s

xvedri wili xvedri wilis

nazardi jami

34 Sesavali monografiis: К.Джини. Средные величины. М., 1970. с.735 rogorc wesi, mosaxleobis saerTo da saSualo Semosavlebs statistika iZlevaintervalebiT. mag. 50-150 laris, 100-200 laris da a.S. farglebSi. gaangariSebisaTvis

vsargeblobT intervalis saSualoTi. mag. 1002

15050

lars, 150

2

200100

lars da



248

m o s a x l e o b i s

j g u f e b i s

m i x e d v i T

S e m o s a v l e b i s

j g u f e b i s

m i x e d v i T

m o s a x l e o b i s

j g u f e b i s

m i x e d v i T

p

S e m o s a v l e b i s

j g u f e b i s

m i x e d v i Tq

i

1 2 3=12 4 5 6 7

100

150

200

220

240

250

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,8

400,0

525,0

600,0

550,0

480,0

450,0

0,238

0,208

0,179

0,149

0,119

0,107

0,133

0,175

0,200

0,182

0,160

0,150

0,238

0,446

0,625

0,774

0,893

1,0

0,133

0,308

0,508

0,690

0,850

1,0

sul 16,8 3005,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0

CavsvaT 6.11 formulaSi Sedegebi:

171,0111,2282,2

)850,00,1()690,0893,0()508,0774,0()308,0625,0()133,0446,0(

)0,1893,0()850,0774,0()690,0625,0()508,0446,0()308,0238,0(

K

saqstatis gaangariSebiT jinis koeficienti (indeqsi) saqarTveloSi 2000-2008

wlebSi mTliani Semosavlis mixedviT 0,50-dan Semcirda 0,47-mde e.i. 3%-iT, xolo

fuladi Semosavlebis mixedviT 0,56-dan 0,52-mde, e.i. 4%-iT, rac SemosavlebSi

diferenciaciis gamoTanabrebaze, Tundac sul mcirediT, miuTiTebs. aRniSnuli

daskvna ewinaaRmdegeba Cvens mier deciluri jgufebis mixedviT gakeTebul

daskvnas (cxrili 6.3). amave periodSi Semosavlebis ganawilebis diferenciaciis

gaRrmavebis Sesaxeb. magram ramdenadac jinis koeficienti warmoadgens

ganmazogadebel maCvenebels, unda miviRoT daskvna masze dayrdnobiT, rom 2000-2008

wlebSi saqarTveloSi mainc hqonda adgili, Tumca umniSvnelod, Semosavlebis

mixedviT diferenciaciis gamoTanabrebas. mosaxleobis Semosavlebis iZulebiTi

a.S. gaangariSebis gasamartiveblad saSualo Semosavali erT mcxovrebze movitaneTpirdapir, intervalebis gareSe.



249

GgaTanabreba socializmis dros adamianebs uxSobda iniciativas, ramdenadac

Semosavlebis garkveuli diferenciacia qmnis konkurentul garemos da

astimulirebs warmoebis zrdas. magram Semosavlebis zRvargadasuli

diferenciacia aseve axSobs iniciativas da zRudavs konkurentul garemos,

ramdenadac adamianebis did nawils ekargeba imis imedi, rom aseT sazogadoebaSi

raime warmatebas miaRwevs. amitom aseT sazogadoebebSi masobrivi xdeba sarCos

mopoveba ZaladobiT.

Cven aqamde ganvixileT mosaxleobis Semosavlebis maCveneblebi saSualod

TveSi da saSualod weliwadSi. aRniSnuli maCveneblebi gamoiTvleba aseve

saSualod kvartalebis mixedviT.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis donis diferenciacias axasiaTeben aseve modiT da

medianiT.

moda aris Semosavlebis yvelaze gavrcelebuli sidide.

medianuri sidide _ Semosavlebis is sididea, romelic mosaxleobas yofs or

Tanabar nawilad. erT nawils aqvs masze naklebi Semosavlebi, meores – meti.

zemoTmotanili maCveneblebis garda, mosaxleobis Semosavlebs da Sesabamisad

cxovrebis dones axasiaTeben Semdegi statistikuri maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa:

nominaluri Semosavlebi, realuri Semosavlebi, saSualo nominaluri da realuri

xelfasi, saSualo realuri xelfasis msyidvelobiTi unari, minimaluri

Semosavali (saarsebo minimumi), minimaluri pensia da stipendia.

nominaluri Semosavlebi warmoadgens faqtobrivad daricxul Semosavlebs.

aseTis magaliTia daricxuli nominaluri xelfasi. nominalur xelfass

gamoklebuli gadasaxadebi da savaldebulo gadasaxadebi gvaZlevs gankargvad,

saboloo Semosavlebs.

realuri Semosavlebi is saboloo Semosavlebia, riTac SesaZlebelia

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZena.

nominaluri da realuri Semosavlebis donis statistikuri daxasiaTebisaTvis

gaiangariSeben maT moculobas erT mcxovrebze an erT Sinameurneobaze, risTvisac

Sesabamisi maCveneblebi mocemuli wlisTvis gaiyofa mosaxleobis saSualowliur

ricxvze da/an Sinameurneobebis ricxvze.

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis mniSvnelovan maxasiaTebels warmoadgens

saSualo nominaluri xelfasis da saSualo realuri xelfasis maCveneblebi.

aRniSnuli maCveneblebi SeiZleba gaangariSebuli iqnes ekonomikis dargebis,



250

regionebis da qveynis masStabiT rogorc mTlianad, ise kacebisa da qalebis

mixedviT.

saSualo nominaluri xelfasi gaiangariSeba daricxuli xelfasis fondis

SefardebiT dasaqmebulTa saSualo ricxvTan. maCvenebeli SeiZleba

gaangariSebuli iqnes Tvis, kvartalis, naxevari wlis da mTeli wlis mixedviT.

magaliTad, 2007 wlisTvis saSualo nominalurma xelfasma saqarTvelos

ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulebisTvis Seadgina 368,1 lari, maT Soris: minimaluri _

ganaTlebaSi 153, xolo maqsimaluri - safinanso saqmianobaSi 1014,5 lari, e.i.

ganaTlebaSi dasaqmebulebze 6,6-jer meti. saSualo xelfasi diferencirebulia da

SeiZleba iTqvas adgili aqvs diskriminacias sqesis mixedviT, rac imaSi vlindeba,

rom 2007 wels saSualo xelfasma kacebSi Seadgina 475,6 lari, xolo qalebSi

mxolod 240,2 lari, e.i. 2-jer naklebi.

saSualo realuri xelfasi gaiangariSeba saSualo nominaluri xelfasis

samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsze gayofiT. saSualo nominaluri xelfasi 2007 wels

tolia 368,1 laris, samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi - 111,0%, e.i. 1,11.

saSualo realuri xelfasi 2007 w. lars.lari

6,33111,1

1,368

saSualo realuri xelfasis msyidvelobiTi unari ganisazRvreba im

raodenobis sasursaTo da arasasursaTo saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moculobiT,

romelTa SeZenac SeiZleba aRniSnuli xelfasiT. magaliTad, 2007 wlis saSualo

realuri xelfasiT, 331,6 lariT, 2007 wels SeiZleboda: 47 kg. saqonlis xorcis (1

kg. fasi = 7 lars), an 66 kg. yvelis (1 kg. fasi = 5 lars), an 414 kg. kartofilis

(1 kg. fasi = 0,8 lars) da a. S. SeZena.

6.4. mosaxleobis moxmarebis (danaxarjebis) statistikuri maCveneblebi

mosaxleobis moxmarebis statistikis amocanebia mosaxleobis moxmarebis

absoluturi moculobis, donis, dinamikis da struqturis Seswavla.



251

mosaxleobis moxmarebis absoluturi moculoba warmoadgens mosaxleobis

mier gaweuli xarjebis1 mTlian moculobas, gamosaxuls fulad erTeulebSi.

moxmareba moicavs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenas. masSi mniSvnelovani adgili

ukavia naturiT moxmarebas. moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis struqturaSi

Sedis samomxmareblo xarjebi kvebis produqtebze, tansacmelsa da fexsacmelze,

saojaxo moxmarebis saqonelze, janmrTelobis dacvaze, eleqtroenergiaze,

ganaTlebaze, kulturaze, dasvenebaze, dazogvaze, gasesxebaze da sxva.

moxmarebis rogorc absoluturi, ise SefardebiTi (donis, dinamikis,

struqturis) maCveneblebi saqarTvelos statistikaSi gaiangariSeba Tveebis,

kvartlebis da mTeli wlis mixedviT, qalaqisa da soflis WrilSi. saqarTvelos

mosaxleobis moxmarebis saerTo moculoba da struqtura 2005 wlisTvis

mocemulia cxrilSi.

cxrili 6.6

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis moxmarebis saerTo moculoba

da struqtura 2008 wels qalaqisa da soflis

mixedviT saSualod TveSi1

moxmarebis saerTo

moculoba

mln. lari procentulad

1 vgulisxmobT, rom moxmareba mis SeZenaze gaweuli xarjebis ekvivalenturia, e.i. mocemulparagrafSi ganxilulia samomxmareblo xarjebi.

1

saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2008. Tb., 2009. gv. 43; 46.6.5 cxrils unda mivceT zogierTi ganmarteba:1. mTliani xarjebi erT SemTxvevaSi tolia – samomxmareblo fuladi xarjebs (72,1%)

damatebuli arafuladi xarjebi (16,2%) da damatebuli arasamomxmareblo fuladixarjebi (11,7%), sul 100,0%.

2. mTliani xarjebi meore SemTxvevaSi tolia:samomxmareblo xarjebi sul (88,3%) damatebuli arasamomxmareblo fuladi xarjebi(11,7%), sul 100,0%.

TiToeuli muxlis Semadgeneli moxmarebis saxeebi naprocentebia ara am muxlTan,aramed cxrilis boloSi moTavsebul mTlian jamTan (xarjebi sul).



252

qalaqi sofeli sul qalaqi sofeli sul

samomxmareblo fuladi

xarjebi 245,2 144,1 389,3 83,9 58,2 72,1

sursaTze, sasmelze,

Tambaqos nawarmze106,5 72,5 179,0 36,5 29,2 33,1

tansacmelze da

fexsacmelze11,1 6,7 17,9 3,8 2,7 3,3

saojaxo moxmarebis

saqonelze8,5 5,4 13,9 2,9 2,2 2,6

janmrTelobis dacvaze 20,8 17,8 38,5 7,1 7,2 7,1

saTbobsa daeleqtroenergiaze

31,3 15,6 46,9 10,7 6,3 8,7

transportze 25,2 12,4 39,8 8,6 5,0 7,4

ganaTlebaze, kulturasa

da dasvenebaze10,8 2,6 13,6 3,7 1,1 2,5

sxva samomxmareblo xarjebi 28,2 9,4 39,7 9,7 3,8 7,3

arafuladi xarjebi 14,0 76,5 87,3 4,8 30,0 16,2

samomxmareblo xarjebi,

sul

250,0 213,2 476,7 85,6 86,0 88,3

arasamomxmareblo fuladi

xarjebi

33,0 30,3 63,4 11,3 12,2 11,7

sasoflo-sameurneo xarjebi 0,9 8,1 9,3 0,3 3,2 1,7

transfertebze 6,2 6,5 12,7 2,1 2,6 2,3

dazogvaze an gasesxebaze 21,3 10,5 31,8 7,3 4,2 5,9

qonebis SeZenaze 4,7 4,9 9,6 1,6 2,0 1,8

fuladi xarjebi sul 278,5 174,2 452,7 95,2 70,0 83,8

xarjebi sul 292,2 247,8 540,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

vinaidan soflis mosaxleobis SemosavlebSi qalaqTan SedarebiT dabalia

fuladi Semosavlebis xvedri wili, Sesabamisad dabalia fuladi xarjebis

rogorc absoluturi ise SefardebiTi sidide. kerZod, qalaqad moxmarebis mTlian

moculobaSi fuladi xarjebi Seadgens 95,2%, xolo arafuladi xarjebi



253

(naturaluri moxmareba) – 4,8%. soflis mosaxleobaSi maCveneblebi Sesabamisad

70,0 da 30,0 procentis tolia.

moxmarebis struqturidan yuradRebas iqcevs is garemoeba, rom xarjebis 33,1%

midis sursaTze, sasmelze da Tambaqos nawarmze, anu kvebis produqtebze da

mxolod 1,8% qonebis SeZenaze. Tu imasac gaviTvaliswinebT, rom arafuladi

xarjebi, e.i. moxmareba naturiT (sakuTari warmoebis produqcia) Seadgens xarjebis

16,2%, maSin 2008 wels saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani xarjebis 49,3% (33,1% +

16,2%) modis kvebis produqtebze. danaxarjebis igive procentia erTi

Sinameurneobis mixedviT. 2002 wlisTvis aRniSnuli maCvenebeli Seadgenda 48,8%,

2003 wels – 49,4%, 2004 wels _ 50,0%, xolo 2005 wels _ 55,7%. e.i. 2002-2005 wlebSi

danaxarjebis struqturaSi ganuxrelad izrdeba kvebis produqtebis SeZenaze

gaweuli xarjebis xvedri wili, rac migviTiTebs mosaxleobis kidev ufro

gaRaribebis tendenciaze, radgan germaneli statistikosis engelis kanonis

Tanaxmad – ojaxis Semosavlebis zrdis kvalobaze ecema sursaTze gaweuli

xarjebis xvedri wili, daaxloebiT imave doneze rCeba tansacmelze, fexsacmelze,

binaze, gazsa da eleqtroenergiaze danaxarjebis xvedri wili da izrdeba

momsaxurebasa da fufunebis sagnebis SeZenaze danaxarjebis xvedri wili.1 2005-2008

wlebSi xarjebi kvebis produqtebze 55,7%-dan 49,3%-mde Semcirda, rac dadebiTi

tendenciaa.

mosaxleobis moxmarebis dones gvixasiaTebs xarjebis moculoba erT

mcxovrebze da/an erT Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT. aRniSnuli maCveneblebis

gasaangariSeblad saWiroa xarjebis moculoba gaiyos erT SemTxvevaSi

mosaxleobis saSualowliur ricxvze, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi Sinameurneobebis

ricxvze. Sesabamisi maCveneblebi motanilia cxrilSi.

cxrili 6.7

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mTliani xarjebis donis da dinamikis

maCveneblebi 1997-2008 wlebSi, saSualod TveSi36

wlebi xarjebi larebSi procentulad 1997 welTan

1 b.gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006. gv. 3136 cxrili Sedgenilia: saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004_2005. Tb., 2005. gv. 68-69.saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2008. Tb., 2009. gv. 40-41.



254

erT

mcxovrebze

gaangariSebiT

erT

Sinameurneobaze

gaangariSebiT

maCvenebeli

erT

mcxovrebze

maCvenebeli

erT

Sinameurneobaze

1997 79 284 100,0 100,0

1998 74 256 93,6 90,0

1999 83 291 105,1 102,5

2000 85 319 107,6 112,3

2001 84 322 106,3 113,4

2002 96 359 121,5 126,4

2003 95 358 120,3 126,1

2004 100 379 126,6 133,5

2005 102 383 129,1 134,9

2008 146 536 184,8 188,7

rogorc cxrilidan Cans, 1997-1998 wlebSi maCveneblebis Semcirebis Semdeg maT

Tanmimdevrul zrdas aqvs adgili. gansakuTrebiT izrdeba maCvenebeli erT

Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT. Semosavali-xarjebis dapirispirebaSi pozitivze

miuTiTebs is garemoeba, rom erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT 1997-2002 wlebSi

xarjebi ametebda Semosavlebs TveSi saSualod 20,7 lariT, 2003-2005 wlebSi _

mxolod 13,3 lariT, xolo 2008 wels Semosavlebi da xarjebi gaTanabrda (ix.

cxrili 6.3)

mosaxleobis mimdinare da dagrovili Semosavlebis nawili mimarTulia

xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebs SesaZenad. Sinameurneobebis sakuTrebaSi arsebuli

xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebs statistikaSi gamoiTvlian yovel 100

Sinameurneobaze an 1000 mcxovrebze. saqarTveloSi 2006 wels yovel 100Sinameurneobaze modioda:37

macivari 64 fotoaparati 16

37 statistikuri weliwdeuli. 2008. Tb., 2009, gv. 65.



255

sarecxi manqana36

personaluri

kompiuteri3

radiomimRebi 13 velosipedi 4

televizori 89 motocikli 1

mtversasruti 17 msubuqi avtomobili 17

sakeravi manqana 36 agaraki 4

firsakravi 2 satvirTo avtomobili 2

videomagnitofoni19

minitraqtori da

motobloki2

magnitofoni 27 traqtori 1

fortepiano 28

moxmarebis dones gamoiTvlian mTeli mosaxleobis, qalaqisa da soflis da

calkeuli sqesobriv-asakobrivi jgufebis mixedviT, rogoricaa:1

1. skolamdeli asakis bavSvebi 0 _ 6^wlis;

2. mozardi 7 _ 15 wlis;

3. Sromisunariani mamakaci 16 – 64 wlis;

4. Sromisunariani qali 16 _ 59 wlis;

5. sapensio asakis mamakaci 65 welze meti;

6. sapensio asakis qali 60 welze meti.

sasursaTo saqonlis moxmarebis Sesaswavlad statistikaSi gamoiyofa

mosaxleobis 5 jgufi: (Sromis xasiaTis mixedviT)

1. upiratesad gonebrivi SromiT dakavebulebi.,

2. msubuqi fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi;

3. saSualo simZimis fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi;

4. mZime fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi;

5. gansakuTrebiT mZime fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi.

Sinameurneobebis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis monacemebze dayrdnobiT

SegviZlia SevadginoT mosaxleobis Semosavlebis da xarjebis balansi.

cxrili 6.8

1 daviT kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005. gv. 238.





257

Cans, rom 2008 wels Semosavlebi aWarbebda xarjebs 1,8 mln. lariT. unda

aRiniSnos, rom 2005 wels xarjebi aWarbebda Semosavlebs 36,5 mln. lariT.38

6.5. siRaribis statistikuri Seswavla

siRaribe da misi masStabi cxovrebis dabali donis maCvenebelia.39 siRaribe

aris Semosavlebis ukmarisoba adamianis materialuri da sulieri

moTxovnilebebis dasakmayofileblad, mis SesaZenad. Tumca Semosavlis garkveuli

sidide erTisTvis SeiZleba iyos sakmarisi, meorisTvis _ arasakmarisi. siRaribis

SemTxvevaSi Semosavlebis ukmarisoba masobrivi movlenaa.

mosaxleobis gaRaribeba saqarTveloSi gasuli saukunis 70-iani wlebidan

daiwyo sabWoTa kavSiris SemadgenlobaSi. kerZod, sabWoTa kavSirSi 1976/80-1986/90

wlebSi mniSvnelovnad Semcirda procentulad ekonomikur maCvenebelTa

saSualowliuri matebis tempebi: mTliani erovnuli produqti _ 4,8%-dan 2,4%-mde,

erovnuli Semosavali _ 4,3%-dan 1,3%-mde, mrewvelobis produqcia 4,4%-dan 2,5%-

mde, da a.S.1

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis Semdgom gaRaribebas xeli Seuwyo sabWoTa

kavSiris daSlam, ramac gamoiwvia mokavSire respublikebs Soris ekonomikuri

kavSirebis gawyveta. gasuli saukunis 90-iani wlebidan saqarTveloSi gamefda

sayovelTao krizisi, romelmac moicva politika, ekonomika, socialuri sistema,

erovnuli urTierTobebi da a.S. saxelisuflo StoebSi dakanonda korufcia,

privatizaciis saSualebiT moxda Taobebis mier Seqmnili da dagrovili

simdidris, aseve miwebis xelSi Cagdeba erTi muWa adamianebis mier, xolo TiTeul

moqalaqes am qonebidan ergo 5 laris Rirebulebis vauCeri. siRaribe yvela

qveyanaSi arsebobs, magram is SefardebiTia. sul sxvaa misi done da Sinaarsi

ekonomikurad ganviTarebul qveynebSi da sul sxva ekonomikurad CamorCenil

qveynebSi.

siRaribis donis gansazRvrisaTvis saWiroa saarsebo minimumis dadgena.

saarsebo minimums moxmarebis fiziologiur normebze (rogorc sasursaTo, ise

38 m. xmalaZe. statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. Tb., 2008, gv. 196.39 b.gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 10 1 b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 10



258

arasasursaTo sagnebze da momsaxurebaze) dayrdnobiT gansazRvravs statistikis

departamenti. saarsebo minimumi aris Semosavlebis is done, romelic

uzrunvelyofs im minimaluri dovlaTis da momsaxurebis SeZenas, rac saWiroa

adamianis janmrTelobis da sicocxlis SenarCunebisaTvis. saarsebo minimumi

moicavs danaxarjebs minimaluri raodenobis kvebis produqtebis, arasasursaTo

saqonlis da aucilebeli momsaxurebis SeZenaze. aRniSnuli danaxarjebi moicavs

agreTve gadasaxadebs da savaldebuli gadasaxdelebs.

saarsebo minimumi dgindeba da mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofa xdeba qveynis

socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis donis gaTvaliswinebiT da socialuri

politikis realizaciis erT-erTi mTavari maCvenebelia.

saarsebo minimumi gaiangariSeba:

1. saSualod erT momxmarebelze;

2. Sromisunarian mamakacze;

3. pensionerze; (pensionerebze)

4. bavSvze; (bavSvebze)

5. saSualo ojaxze;

6. erTsulian, orsulian da a.S. eqvs da metsulian ojaxze.

saarsebo minimumi gaiangariSeba qveynis mTeli mosaxleobis, aseve qalebisa da

kacebis mixedviT.saarsebo minimumi moicavs:

1. gadasaxadebs;

2. samomxmareblo minimums (kalaTas).

samomxmareblo minimumi Sedgeba:

1. sasursaTo minimumisgan; da

2. arasasursaTo saqonlisa da momsaxurebs Rirebulebis jamisgan.

sasursaTo minimumi (kalaTi) gulisxmobs im kvebis produqtebis (sursaTis)

nakrebs, rac, Sesabamisi moxmarebis fiziologiuri normebis, maTi kaloriulobisa

da sabazro fasebis mixedviT, minimalurad mainc saWiroa adamianis fizikuri

arsebobisa da sicocxlisunarianobis SesanarCuneblad. moxmarebis fiziologiur

normebs adgenen Sesabamisi samedicino, Sromisa da sxva samecniero-kvleviTi

institutebi adamianTa asakobrivi, sqesobrivi, cxovrebis bunebriv-klimaturi

pirobebis, zne-Cveulebebis, istoriuli tradiciebis, kulturisa da sxvaTa



259

gaTvaliswinebiT.1 magaliTad, ruseTSi saarsebo minimums angariSoben bunebriv-

klimaturi zonebis mixediTac.

sasursaTo kalaTis Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba normatiuli da statistikuri

meTodebiT. normatiuli meTodi iTvaliswinebs moxmarebis minimalur,

fiziologiur normebs, xolo statistikuri-moxmarebis faqtobriv dones.

moxmarebis rogorc normatiuli, ise faqtobrivi doneebi arsebiTad gansxvavdeba

asakis, sqesis, saqmianobisa da rigi faqtorebis mixedviT. Sesabamisad rogorc

samomxmareblo, ise sasursaTo kalaTis Semadgenloba da Rirebuleba gansxvavdeba

momxmarebelTa sxvadasxva tipisaTvis. amis gamo minimaluri (normatiuli)

sasursaTo kalaTi da misi Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba Sromisunariani

mamakacisaTvis, xolo sxva tipis momxmarebelTa minimaluri sasursaTo kalaTis

Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba kaloriebze moTxovnis normebis proporciulad.1

minimaluri sasursaTo kalaTis Semadgenloba Sromisunariani mamakacisaTvis

saqarTveloSi moicavs 103 dasaxelebis sursaTs, rogoricaa: pureuli,

marcvleuli, cximebi, xorceuli, bostneuli, xili, Saqari, kvercxi, marili, Rvino,

da a.S. wliuri moxmarebis norma Seadgens: xorblis puri – 130 kg, lobio – 12 kg,

saqonlis xorci – 22 kg, kvercxi – 150 cali, da a.S. sasursaTo kalaTaSi

Semavali saqonlis erTeulis fasi dgindeba fasebze dakvirvebis Sedegad.

sasursaTo kalaTis minimaluri energetikuli Rirebuleba dRe-RameSi

gaangariSebulia 2500 k.kaloriiT.arasasursaTo saqonelze normativebi gaiangariSeba rogorc moxmarebis

moculobis, aseve cveTis vadebis mixedviT. magaliTad, ruseTis federaciis

normativebiT fexsacmlis moxmareba erT Sromisunarian adamianze gansazRvrulia

6 wyviliT 3,2 wlis ganmavlobaSi, pensionerebisaTvis 6 wyviliT 3,5 wlis

ganmavlobaSi, xolo bavSvebisTvis 7 wyviliT 1,8 wlis ganmavlobaSi.

ganisazRvreba aseve momsaxurebis moxmarebis normativebi momsaxurebis iseT

saxeebze, rogoricaa: transporti, kavSirgabmuloba, ganaTleba, jandacva da a.S.

saarsebo, an kidev rogorc uwodeben sacxovrebeli minimumis rogorc

normatiul, ise faqtobriv moculobaze gavlenas axdens samomxmareblo fasebi,

ramdenadac saarsebo minimumis rogorc normatiuli, ise faqtobrivi moculoba

1 b.gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006. gv. 27.1 daviT kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005. gv. 239-240.



260

ganisazRvreba samomxmareblo kalaTaSi Semavali produqciis calkeuli saxeebis

gadamravlebiT maT fasze.

saarsebo minimumis sidides yovelTviurad angariSobs saqstati.

saarsebo minimumis garda qveyanaSi ganisazRvreba minimaluri xelfasis,

minimaluri pensiis da minimaluri stipendiis sidide.

cxrili 6.9

saarsebo minimumi sxvadasxva tipis momxmareblisa da

ojaxisaTvis saqarTveloSi 1996-2005 wlebSi (lari)1

1996 2000 2003 2004 2005 2008

Sromisunariani asakis mamakacis 111,5 115,0 130,7 84,3 92,6 127,9

saSualo momxmareblis 97,9 100,9 114,7 74,7 82,1 113,3

saSualo Sinameurneobis, m.S. 194,1 200,0 227,4 141,5 155,4 214,6

erTwevriani 97,9 100,9 114,7 74,7 82,1 113,3

orwevriani 156,6 161,4 183,5 119,5 131,3 181,3

samwevriani 176,2 181,5 206,4 134,5 147,7 203,9

oTxwevriani 195,7 201,7 229,4 149,4 164,1 226,6

xuTwevriani 220,2 226,9 258,0 168,1 184,6 254,9

eqvswevriani da meti 305,3 314,7 357,8 198,7 218,3 301,4

siRaribis statistikuri daxasiaTebisaTvis saWiroa gairkves is zRvari,

romlis qvemoTac adamiani iTvleba Raribad, ufro Raribad da Ratakad. Ratakebad

iTvlebian adamianebi, romelTa moxmareba nols uaxlovdeba.

statistikaSi ganasxvaveben siRaribis absolutur da fardobiT zRvrebs.

absolutur zRvrad miCneulia saarsebo minimumi, romelSic gulisxmoben

Sromisunariani asakis (15-dan 65 wlamde) mamakacis saarsebo minimums,xolo

fardobiT zRvrad miCneulia medianuri moxmarebis 60% da medianuri moxmarebis

1 cxrili Sedgenilia: b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi, Tb., 2006, gv. 26-27.saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005, Tb., 2005, gv. 87-88. saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi.2008. Tb., 2009. gv. 60.



261

40%.medianuri moxmareba moxmarebis is sididea, romelze naklebsac moixmars

mosaxleobis 50%, xolo mosaxleobis danarCeni 50% moixmars masze mets. maT

mimarT procentebSi gamoiTvleba siRaribis iseTi statistikuri maCveneblebi,

rogoricaa: siRaribis done, siRaribis siRrme, siRaribis simwvave.

siRaribis done. Raribebs miekuTvnebian is adamianebi, romlebic moxmarebis

mixedviT siRaribis zRvars qvemoT imyofebian. siRaribis done gviCvenebs Raribebis

xvedriT wils mTel mosaxleobaSi procentulad da gamoiTvleba formuliT:2

qH =

n 100,

(6.12)

sadac H _ aris siRaribis donis maCvenebeli;

q _ Raribebis ricxovnoba;

n _ mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba.

siRaribis dones sxvagvarad uwodeben Raribebis raodenobis indeqss.

siRaribis done aris zogadi maCvenebeli, romelic ver gviCvenebs ramdeniT

naklebia Raribi mosaxleobis moxmareba saarsebo minimumTan SedarebiT. aRniSnul

sxvaobas, anu Raribi mosaxleobis siRaribis zRvramde daSorebis xvedriT wils

gvixasiaTebs siRaribis siRrmis maCvenebeli, romelic gamoiTvleba formuliT:1

q

1

У

n Z

P( )

i i=1 ,

(6.13)

sadac:1P _ aris siRaribis siRrme;

_ siRaribis zRvari;

Уi _ Raribi mosaxleobis i -uri wevris moxmarebis moculoba;

q _ Raribi mosaxleobis ricxovnoba;

n _ mTeli mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba.

formulis mricxveliT vadgenT Raribi mosaxleobis moxmarebis im

moculobas, romelic maT siRaribis zRvramde misaRwevad sWirdebaT. faqtobrivad

2 gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 451 b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 46.



262

mricxveli gviCvenebs Raribebis moxmarebis deficits. formulis mniSvneli, Zn

warmoadgens mTeli mosaxleobis siRaribis zRvris donis Sesabamis jamur

moxmarebas. esaa moxmareba saarsebo minimumis pirobebSi.

Tu or periodSi Semcirda siRaribis siRrmis maCvenebeli, es migvaniSnebs

Raribebis moxmarebis zrdaze da maTi mdgomareobis gaumjobesebaze. magram aseT

tendencias, e.i. moxmarebis moculobis zrdas SeiZleba adgili hqondes Raribi

mosaxleobis erTi nawilis kidev ufro gaRaribebis da meore nawilis

mdgomareobis gaumjobesebis, e.i. Raribebis moxmarebis diferenciaciis gaRrmavebis

pirobebSi. aRniSnul tendencias siRaribis2 siRrmis maCvenebeli ver asaxavs.

amisaTvis statistikis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba siRaribis simwvavis maCvenebeli. is

gvixasiaTebs RaribTa moxmarebaSi arsebul diferenciacias, e.i. variacias da

gamoisaxeba procentebSi. faqtobrivad es aris variaciis SefardebiTi maCvenebeli.

is gamoiTvleba formuliT:1

q q

2

У У

n nP 2 21 1( ) (1 )

i i

i=1 i=1 .

(6.14)

siRaribis maCveneblebi saqarTveloSi motanilia cxril 7.9-Si.

cxrili 6.10

siRaribis fardobiTi maCveneblebi

saqarTveloSi 1997-2009 wlebSi.2

siRaribis done

(%)

siRaribis siRrme

(%)

siRaribis simwvave

(%)

1 b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 47.2 cxrili Sedgenilia: b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 50,saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi, 2004-2005, Tb., 2005, gv. 81. www.statistics.ge



263

s a a r s e b o

m i n i m u m i s

m e d i a n u r i

m o

x m a r e b i s

6 0 % - i s m i m a r T

m e d i a n u r i

m o

x m a r e b i s

4 0 % - i s m i m a r T

s a a r s e b o

m i n i m u m i s

m e d i a n u r i

m o

x m a r e b i s

6 0 % - i s m i m a r T

m e d i a n u r i

m o

x m a r e b i s

4 0 % - i s m i m a r T

s a a r s e b o

m i n i m u m i s

m e d i a n u r i

m o

x m a r e b i s

6 0 % - i s m i m a r T

m e d i a n u r i

m o

x m a r e b i s

4 0 %

s m m r

1997 46,2 25,0 10,8 17,3 8,1 3,3 8,9 3,9 1,6

2000 51,8 23,0 10,2 20,2 7,6 3,2 10,7 3,7 1,6

2003 54,5 20,9 9,2 21,1 6,9 3,1 11,2 3,5 1,6

2004 35,7 35,5 16,9 12,2 12,3 5,4 6,1 6,1 2,6

2005 39,4 34,7 16,1 13,5 11,8 5,0 6,6 5,7 2,3

2009 ... 21,0 8,8 ... 6,6 2,6 ... 3,1 1,2

cxrilis monacemebis analizisas yuradRebas iqcevs is garemoeba, rom Tu

1997-2003 wlebSi saarsebo minimumis mimarT siRaribis maCveneblebis Semcirebis

pirobebSi, siRaribis maCveneblebi fardobiTi zRvrebis mimarT izrdeboda, 2004-

2005 wlebSi diametralurad sawinaaRmdego suraTs aqvs adgili: saarsebo

minimumis mimarT siRaribis maCveneblebis zrdis pirobebSi, siRaribis maCveneblebi

fardobiTi zRvrebis mimarT mcirdeba.

siRaribis maCveneblebi gamoiTvleba wliurad da kvartalebis mixedviT

mTeli mosaxleobis, aseve Sinameurneobebis mixedviT Sinameurneobebis suladobis

gaTvaliswinebiT qalaqisa da soflis WrilSi.

cxrili 6.11

siRaribis fardobiTi maCveneblebi saqarTveloSi

2005 wels Sinameurneobebis wevrTa ricxvis mixedviT1

siRaribis done

(%)

siRaribis siRrme

(%)

siRaribis simwvave

(%)

1 saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb., 2005. gv. 83-84



264

ojaxis

tipebi

s a a r s e b o

m i n i m u m i s m i m a r T

m e d i a n u r i

m o x m a r e b i s

6 0 % - i s m i m a r T

m e d i a n u r i

m o x m a r e b i s

4 0 % - i s m i m a r T

s a a r s e b o


m e d i a n u r i

m o x m a r e b i s

6 0 % - i s m i m a r T

m e d i a n u r i

m o x m a r e b i s

4 0 % - i s m i m a r T

s a a r s e b o


m e d i a n u r i

m o x m a r e b i s

6 0 % - i s m i m a r T

m e d i a n u r i

m o x m a r e b i s

4 0 % - i s m i m a r T

erTwevriani 31,8 29,0 15,5 12,6 11,3 5,9 7,0 6,2 3,3

orwevriani 28,8 26,0 12,4 10,4 9,2 4,2 5,3 4,7 2,1

samwevriani 30,5 26,3 10,3 9,4 8,0 3,0 4,3 3,6 1,3

oTxwevriani 35,3 30,8 13,4 11,4 9,8 3,8 5,4 4,6 1,8

xuTwevriani 41,7 36,6 15,8 14,1 12,2 5,2 6,9 6,0 2,5

eqvsi da

met wevriani47,9 42,5 21,5 17,1 15,0 6,5 8,5 7,4 3,0

sul 39,4 34,7 16,1 13,5 11,8 5,0 6,6 5,7 2,3

cxrilis monacemebidan Cans kanonzomiereba, romlis Tanaxmadac siRaribis

donis, siRrmis da simwvavis maCveneblebi ojaxis suladobis zrdasTan erTad

mcirdeba da minimalur mniSvnelobas aRwevs sam sulian ojaxSi. oTxsuliani

ojaxidan dawyebuli siRaribis maCveneblebi SesamCnevad, xolo xuTsuliani

ojaxidan dawyebuli, mkveTrad izrdeba.

saqme isaa, rom ojaxis suladobis zrdasTan erTad izrdeba e. w.

Tanacxovrebis efeqti. kerZod, aris xarjebi, romlebic ojaxis suladobis zrdis

kvalobaze nawildeba ojaxis wevrebze da erTsulian ojaxTan SefardebiT, anu

fardobiTad erT sulze mcirdeba, rac niSnavs danaxarjebis ekonomias da ojaxis

Semosavlis arapirdapir zrdas. Sesabamisad mcirdeba siRaribis done. magram

rogorc Cans, saqarTveloSi Tanacxovrebis efeqti moqmedebs samsuliani ojaxisCaTvliT. oTxsuliani da ufro didi ojaxisTvis is ukve Zalas kargavs, radgan

maTSi siRaribis done imdenad mniSvnelovnad aRemateba erTsuliani, orsuliani da

samsuliani ojaxebis siRaribis dones, rom Tanacxovrebis efeqti masze gavlenas

veRar axdens.



265

aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom siRaribis donis, siRrmis da simwvavis maCveneblebi

izrdeba ojaxSi bavSvebis ricxvis zrdasTan erTad. kerZod, 2005 wlisTvis

saqarTveloSi ubavSvo ojaxSi siRaribis done saarsebo minimumis mimarT

Seadgenda 37,9%, xolo 15 wlamde asakis 3 an meti bavSviani ojaxSi – 60,1%.

6.6. janmrTelobis dacvis da socialuri uzrunvelyofis statistika

janmrTelobis dacvis da socialuri uzrunvelyofis statistikis amocanaa

daaxasiaTos mocemul dargSi mimdinare movlenebi da procesebi, rogorc

mimdinare periodSi, ise dinamikaSi. aRniSnuli amocanebis gadasawyvetad saWiro

statistikur informacias saqstats angariSgebas warmoudgens Sromis,

janmrTelobis dacvisa da socialuri uzrunvelyofis saministro gansazRvrulvadebSi.

mocemul dargs statistika axasiaTebs maCvenebelTa sistemis daxmarebiT,

romelic moicavs: jandacvas da socuzrunvelyofas, jandacvaSi dasaqmebul

personals, mosaxleobis avadobas, pensionerTa ricxovnobas.

saqarTvelos statistika jandacvis da socuzrunvelyofis dasaxasiaTeblad

sargeblobs Semdegi statistikuri maCveneblebiT:40

_ eqimebis ricxovnoba sul (aTasi) da 10 000 mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT;

_ eqimebis ricxovnoba calkeuli specialobebis mixedviT;_ saSualo samedicino kadrebis ricxovnoba sul (aTasi) da 10 000

mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT;

_ saSualo samedicino kadrebis ricxovnoba calkeuli specialobebis

mixedviT;

_ saavadmyofoebis ricxvi;

_ saavadmyofo sawolebis ricxvi (aTasi);

_ erTi avadmyofis saavadmyofoSi yofnis xangrZlivoba (dRe);

_ ambulatoriul-poliklinikur dawesebulebaTa ricxvi;

_ ambulatoriul-poliklinikur dawesebulebaTa simZlavre (erT cvlaSi

avadmyofTa miRebis ricxvi (SesaZlebloba));

40 statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 84-94.



266

_ ambulatoriul-poliklinikur dawesebulebebSi eqimTan mimarTvebis ricxvi

wlis ganmavlobaSi (maT Soris profilaqtikis CaTvliT (aTasi));

_ mosaxleobis avadoba sul da daavadebaTa ZiriTadi jgufebis mixedviT

(aTasi SemTxveva);

_ avadobis done ganisazRvreba pirvelad dadgenili diagnoziT avadmyofTa

ricxovnobis SefardebiT mudmivi mosaxleobis saSualo wliur

ricxovnobasTan. avadobis done SeiZleba ganisazRvros mosaxleobis

calkeuli sqesobrivi da asakobrivi jgufebis, aseve daavadebaTa ZiriTadi

jgufebis mixedviT;

_ bavSvTa (0-14 wlis asakis) avadoba daavadebaTa ZiriTadi jgufebis mixedviT

(aTasi SemTxveva);

_ mosaxleobis avadoba infeqciuri daavadebebiT;

_ mosaxleobis avadoba tuberkuloziT;

_ mosaxleobis momsaxureba saswrafo daxmarebiT (sul, maT Soris: ubeduri

SemTxvevebis, ucabedi avad gaxdomis, mSobiarobis da sxva garTulebebis

SemTxvevaSi);

_ pensionerTa ricxovnoba.

movitanoT 2008 wlis zogierTi statistikuri maCvenebeli saqarTvelos

Sesaxeb.

eqimebis ricxovnoba mocemuli wlisTvis aRwevda 20,3 aTass. 10 000 mcxovrebze

gaangariSebiT modioda 46,3 eqimi. aRniSnul maCvenebels ewodeba mosaxleobis

eqimebiT uzrunvelyofis maCvenebeli da gamoiTvleba rogorc:

10000.mosaxleobasaSualo

ricxovnobaeqimebisuzr. K (6.15)

mocemuli maCveneblis Sebrunebuli sidide )3,46

10000( , gviCvenebs, Tu ramdeni

mcxovrebi modis erT eqimze. mas SeiZleba vuwodoT eqimebis datvirTvis

maCvenebeli. mocemuli maCvenebeli pirdapiri gziT SeiZleba gamovTvaloT

saSualo mosaxleobis ricxovnobis SefardebiT eqimebis ricxvTan;

saSualo samedicino personalis ricxovnoba toli iyo 19,6 aTasis, 10 000

mcxovrebze modioda 44,7 saS. samed. personali, xolo erT saS. samed. personalze

_ 224 mcxovrebi;



267

saavadmyofoebis ricxvi Seadgenda 244, maTSi sawolebis ricxvi 14,1 aTass, e.i.

saSualod erT saavadmyofoze modioda 58 sawoli;

ambulatoriul-poliklinikuri dawesebulebebis ricxvi aRwevda 1090-s, xolo

maTi simZlavre (erT cvlaSi avadmyofTa miRebis ricxvi) _ 87,4 aTass. 2008 wlisganmavlobaSi aRniSnuli tipis dawesebulebebSi eqimTan mimarTvebis ricxvma

Seadgina 7 530,1 aTasi.

cxrili 6.12

mosaxleobis avadoba daavadebaTa ZiriTadi jgufebis mixedviT saqarTveloSi

2006-2008 wlebSi41

2006 2008

% 2008

2006-Tanpirvelad dadgenili diagnoziT registrirebuli

daavadebebis ricxovnoba, aTasi SemTxveva42

761,0 807,5 106,1

maT Soris:

zogierTi infeqciuri da parazituli daavadeba 44,9 47,1 105,0

axalwarmonaqmnebi 9,2 7,9 85,9

sisxlis da sisxlmbadi organoebis da imunuri meqanizmis

CaTreviT mimdinare calkeuli darRvevebi

9,4 11,7 124,5

endokrinuli sistemis, kvebisa da nivTierebaTa cvlisdarRveviT gamowveuli daavadebebi

27,7 30,6 110,5

fsiqiuri da qceviTi aSlilobebi6,8

9,7 142,6

nervuli sistemis daavadebebi 31,9 29,0 90,9

Tvalisa da misi danamatebis daavadebi30,1

35,1 116,6

yurisa da dvriliseburi morCis daavadebebi 16,0 19,9 124,4

sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi 83,2 74,4 89,4

41 statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 89. 42 aRiricxeba maTi ricxovnobac, visac orjer da metad daudginda avadmyofoba erTi daigive diagnoziT. avadobis Sesaxeb statistikuri informaciis Segrovebasa da damuSavebassafuZvlad edeba janmrTelobis dacvis saerTaSoriso organizaciis mier SemuSavebuliklasifikacia.



268

sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi 313,8 299,8 95,5

saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis davadebebi 56,6 92,4 163,3

kanisa da kanqveSa ujredisis daavadebebi 27,0 29,1 107,8

ZvalkunTovani sistemisa da SemaerTebeli qsovilis

daavadebebi17,8 26,1 146,6

Sardsasqeso sistemis daavadebebi 40,4 48,3 119,6

orsuloba, mSobiaroba da loginobis xana, abortiT

damTavrebuli orsuloba9,5 8,5 89,5

perinatalur periodSi43 warmoSobili da calkeuli

mdgomareobebi2,0 2,1 105,0

ganviTarebis Tandayolili anomaliebi, deformaciebi da

qromosomuli anomaliebi

1,3 1,7 130,8

avadobis ZiriTadi jgufebidan 2008 wels xvedri wilis mixedviT pirvel

adgilze dgas sunTqvis organoebis daavadebebi, romlebzec modis avadobis

SemTxvevaTa 37,1%. Semdeg adgilzea saWmlis momnelebeli organoebis daavadebebi

_ 11,4%, sisxlis mimoqcevis sistemis daavadebebi _ 9,2%, zogierTi infeqciuri da

parazituli daavadeba _ 5,8% da a.S.

pirveladi saswrafo samedicino daxmareba 2008 wels gaewia 796,6 aTas

adamians. maT Soris: ubeduri SemTxvevebis dros _ 10,9 aTass (1,4%), mSobiarobisa

da paTologiuri fexmZimobis dros _ 5,3 aTasi (0,7%), avadmyofobis, mSobiarobis

da axalSobilebis gadayvanis dros _ 28,5 aTass (3,6%).

socialuri uzrunvelyofis kuTxiT, 2008 wels saqarTveloSi aRricxulia

842,2 aTasi pensioneri, romelic Seadgens qveynis mosaxleobis 19,2%, e. i.

faqtobrivad yoveli mexuTe pensioneria. asakiT pensiazea gasuli 658,3 aTasi

adamiani, e. i. pensionerTa 78,2%.

43 esaa periodi dabadebidan erTi kviris ganmavlobaSi, e.i. 6 dRe (m.x.).



269

perspeqtivaSi, arsebuli demografiuli prognozebiT, Sobadobis Semcireba da

axalgazrdobis emigracia saqarTvelodan gamoiwvevs sapesio asakis mosaxleobis

ricxovnobis rogorc absolutur, ise fardobiT (xvedri wilis) zrdas.

6.7. ganaTlebis statistika

ganaTlebis statistika Seiswavlis skolamdeli da zogadsaganmanaTleblo,

saSualo profesiuli da umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis qsels da

maT saqmianobas.

saqarTvelos ganaTlebis sistema eyrnoba ganaTlebis saerTaSoriso

klasifikators. aRniSnuli klasifikatori iTvaliswinebs ganaTlebis donis

Semdeg safexurebs:nulovani safexuri _ skolamdeli dawesebuleba, rogorc swavlebis sawyisi

etapi;

pirveli safexuri _ dawyebiTi skola, moicavs 1-6-e klasebs;

meore safexuri _ arasruli saSualo (sabazo) skola, moicavs 7-9-e klasebs;

mesame safexuri _ saSualo skola, moicavs 10, 11, 12-e klasebs. amave safexurs

miekuTvneba dawyebiTi profesiuli da saxelobo saswavleblebi;

meoTxe safexuri _ saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebi.

2009/2010 saswavlo wlidan saqarTveloSi isini aRar funqcionireben;mexuTe safexuri _ umaRlesi ganaTlebis pirveli etapi, moicavs sabakalavro

da samagistro momzadebas;

meeqvse safexuri _ umaRlesi ganaTlebis meore etapi. diplomisSemdgomi

ganaTlebis sistema. saqarTveloSi 2007 wlamde is funqcionirebda aspiranturis,

xolo 2007 wlis Semdeg _ doqturanturis saxiT. doqtorantura funqcionirebs

umaRles saswavleblebSi da disertaciis dacvis Semdeg doqtorantebs aniWebs

doqtoris akademiur xarisxs.

Sesaswavl sagans ganaTlebis statistika axasiaTebs maCvenebelTa sistemis

daxmarebiT, romelTagan ZiriTadia:44

_ saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis ricxvi saxeebis mixedviT, maTSi

moswavleTa (studentTa) ricxovnoba;

44 statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 69-80. maCveneblebi motanilia saswavlo wlisdasawyisisaTvis.



270

_ moswavleTa (studentTa) ricxovnoba 10 000 mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT’

_ specialistTa gamoSveba 10 000 mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT;

_ zogadsaganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis moswavleTa ganawileba klasebis

mixedviT;

_ pedagogebis raodenoba zogadsaganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebSi;

_ sajaro skolebis moswavleTa ganawileba swavlebis enis mixedviT;

_ moswavleTa ganTesva sajaro skolebSi;

_ saxelmwifo saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis

ricxvi da maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba swavlebis saxeebis (dRis da

dauswrebel ganyofilebebze) mixedviT;

_ kerZo saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis ricxvi da

maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba;

_ saxelmwifo da kerZo saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo

dawesebulebebi da maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba dargobrivi jgufebis

mixedviT;

_ saxelmwifo da kerZo umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis ricxvi

da maTSi studentTa ricxovnoba swavlebis saxeebis (dRis, saramos da

dauswrebel ganyofilebaze) mixedviT;

_ saxelmwifo da kerZo umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebi da maTSi

moswavleTa ricxovnoba dargobrivi jgufebis mixedviT;

_ umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis profesor-maswavlebelTa

ricxovnoba;

_ doqturanturaSi miReba, doqturantebis ricxovnoba da gamoSveba.

ganaTlebis saerTaSoriso standartebis moTxovnebi Camoyalibebulia

ЮНЕСКО-s ganaTlebis saklasifikacio sistemiT. saqarTvelos ganaTlebis

sferoSi amJamad moqmed statistikur maCvenebelTa sistema daaxloebiT 60

procentiTaa harmonizebuli evropul standartebTan.45 ukanasknel wlebSi gvaqvs

Semdegi maCveneblebi.

cxrili 6.13

45 daviT kbilaZe, nino abesaZe, Sorena metreveli. statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. Tb.,2008, gv. 597.



271

skolebis da umaRlesi saswavleblebis zogierTi maCvenebeli saqarTveloSi

2006/2009 wlebSi46

saswavlo weli 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009

skolebis ricxvi

pedagogebis ricxovnoba

moswavleTa ricxovnoba

moswavleTa ricxovnoba 10 000

mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT

umaRlesi saswavleblebis ricxvi

profesor-maswavlebelTa ricxovnoba

studentTa ricxovnoba (aTasi)

studentTa ricxovnoba 10 000 mcxovrebze

gaangariSebiT

2 539

76 339

635 988

1 446

166

...

110,8

320

2 462

75 435

614 666

1 401

156

14 603

81,2

256

2 448

76 887

643 293

1 467

129

11 424

66,5

214

46 cxrili Sedgenilia: statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 69-70, 80.



272

Tavi 7. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

- sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi;

- sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikaSi gamoyenebuli ZiriTadi

cnebebi, kategoriebi da maCvenebelTa sistema;

- sagareo vaWrobis oficialuri statistikis warmoebis mokle

meTodologia da praqtika saqarTveloSi;

- sagareo vaWrobis moculobisa da struqturis statistikuri analizi;

- ucxouri investiciebis statistika;

- saxelmwifo sagareo valis statistika;

- sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistika;

- sagadasaxdelo balansis statistika.

7.1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistika warmoadgens

ekonomikuri statistikis erT-erT mniSvnelovan dargs. misi Seswavlis

sfero gansakuTrebiT gafarTovda globalizaciis Tanamedrove etapze,

rodesac qveynebs Soris urTierToba ufro mWidro da mravalmxrivi gaxda.

amJamad ukve sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebi moicavs movlenaTa da

procesTa did simravles - rogorc ormxrivi, ise mravalmxrivi kavSirebiT.

konkretuli qveynebis mixedviT maTi mdgomareobis analizi moiTxovs

saTanado informaciis arsebobas. aseTi informaciis miRebis wyaros

warmoadgens swored sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis

warmoeba. igi moicavs savaWro-ekonomikur, safinanso-sabanko, saerTaSoriso

satransporto tvirTbrunvas da mgzavrTbrunvas, saerTaSoriso turizms,

samecniero-teqnikur urTierTobebs da sxv. maT Sesaxeb monacemebis miReba,

damuSaveba da raodenobrivi analizi statistikuri kvlevis erTiani



273

procesis mTavari etapebia. aqedan gamomdinare, sagareo ekonomikuri

urTierTobebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia:

1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis Sesaxeb statistikur

monacemTa Segroveba konkretuli droisa da sivrcis mixedviT da

Sesabamisi sainformacio bazebis formireba;

2. miRebuli informaciis pirveladi damuSaveba;

3. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis analizi, rac

gulisxmobs Semdegs:

3.1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis moculobis

Seswavla dinamikaSi da adekvaturi maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;

3.2. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis struqturisSeswavla dinamikaSi da adekvaturi maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;

3.3. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebs Soris kavSiris

statistikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;

4. ucxouri investiciebis moculobisa da struqturis Seswavla

dinamikaSi da adekvaturi statistikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;

5. saxelmwifos sagareo valis statistikis warmoeba;

6. sagadasaxdelo balansis warmoeba;

7. saerTaSoriso satransporto gadazidvebis moculobisa da

struqturis Seswavla calkeuli qveynebisa da regionebis mixedviT;

8. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis moculobisa da

struqturis statistikuri prognozebis gaangariSeba;

9. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis maxasiaTebeli statistikuri

monacemebis publikacia.

aRniSnuli amocanebis Sesasruleblad sagareo ekonomikuri

urTierTobebis statistika axorcielebs statistikuri kvlevis yvela

cnobil etaps (statistikur dakvirvebas, monacemTa pirvelad damuSavebas

da maT analizs). am procesSi igi farTod iyenebs statistikuri mecnierebis

yvela meTods, dawyebuli SerCeviTi da mTliani dakvirvebidan da

damTavrebuli statistikuri prognozirebis mravalricxovani meTodebiT.



274

7.2. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikaSi gamoyenebuli

ZiriTadi cnebebi, kategoriebi da maCvenebelTa sistema

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikaSi gamoiyeneba

mravali cneba da kategoria, romelTa Sinaarsis codna aucilebelia

Sesabamisi maCveneblebis sworad gaangariSebisaTvis. esenia: sagareo

vaWrobis balansi, eqsporti, importi, reeqsporti, sagareo vaWrobis saldo,

sagareo vaWrobis brunva, sasaqonlo klasifikatori, savaluto kursi da

sxv.

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikur maCvenebelTa

sistema moicavs rogorc zogad, ise kerZo maCveneblebs. orive maTganigamoisaxeba naturalur da RirebulebiT zomis erTeulebSi. naturalur

erTeulebSi umetesad gamoisaxeba produqciis eqsportisa da importis

Semadgeneli calkeuli sasaqonlo poziciebi (nomenklatura), saerTaSoriso

tvirTbrunvis (calkeuli saxeobebis tvirTis mixedviT) da mgzavrTbrunvis

sidideebi konkretuli qveynebis mixedviT da a. S. amasTan erTad, aRniSnuli

da sxva krebsiTi maCveneblebi, rogoricaa sagareo vaWrobis mTliani

brunva, eqsportisa da importis sidideebi da sxva, gamoisaxeba aseve

RirebulebiT formaSi (rogorc wesi, aSS dolarSi).

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis movlenebisa da procesebis

Sesaxeb monacemTa mopovebisa da analizisas gamoiyeneba statistikuri

mecnierebis yvela cnobili meTodi, kerZod: statistikuri dakvirveba,

dajgufeba, SefardebiTi da saSualo sidideebi, indeqsebi, droiTi

mwkrivebi, SerCeviTi dakvirveba, korelaciur-regresiuli meTodebi da sxv.



275

7.3. sagareo vaWrobis oficialuri statistikis warmoebis mokle

meTodologia da praqtika saqarTveloSi*

sagareo vaWrobis oficialuri statistikis monacemTa formireba

xorcieldeba gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis statistikis

departamentis rekomendaciebis gaTvaliswinebiT SemuSavebuli

meTodologiis, “saqonliT saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistika,

saxelmZRvanelo SemdgenelTaTvis” (gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia, niu

iorki, 2004 w.) da uaxlesi rekomendaciebis „saqonliT saerTaSoriso

vaWrobis statistika, koncefciebi da gansazRvrebebi, 2010 w.“

(gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia, niu iorki, 2011 w.) Sesabamisad. sagareo

vaWrobaSi saqarTvelo iyenebs aRricxvis “zogad meTods”, rac niSnavs, rom

saqonlis eqsport-importis aRricxvis ZiriTadi kriteriumia mis mier

qveynis ekonomikuri teritoriis gadakveTa. eqsportSi igulisxmeba rogorc

erovnuli warmoSobis produqciis gatana sazRvargareT, ise importirebuli

saqonlis reeqsporti. importSi igulisxmeba qveyanaSi produqciis Semotana

da eqsportirebuli saqonlis reimporti. eqsporti aRricxulia FOB, anu

eqsportiori qveynis franko-sazRvris fasebSi (moicavs eqsportiori qveynis

sazRvramde tvirTis transportirebisa da satransporto saSualebis

bortze datvirTvis xarjebs), xolo importi _ CIF, anu importiori qveynis

franko-sazRvris fasebSi (garda fasisa, moicavs aseve saerTaSoriso

fraxts da dazRvevis xarjebsac). partniori qveynis dadgenis

kriteriumebia: importis dros - saqonlis warmoSobis an gamomgzavni

qveyana, eqsportis dros ki - saboloo daniSnulebis qveyana.

sagareo savaWro operaciebis Sesaxeb informaciis ZiriTad wyaros

warmoadgens satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis monacemTa baza, romelsac

-------------------------------------

* saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris oficialuri versiis mixedviT.



276

statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri yovelTviurad iRebs saqarTvelos

finansTa saministros Semosavlebis samsaxuridan. amasTan, informacia

satransporto saSualebebiT vaWrobis Sesaxeb damatebiT miiReba Sss-is

momsaxurebis saagentodan, xolo bunebrivi airisa da eleqtroenergiis

eqsport-importis Sesaxeb _ Sesabamisad Sps ~saqarTvelos gazis

transportirebis kompania~-dan da Sps ,,saqarTvelos saxelmwifo

eleqtrosistema“-dan.

saqstati Semosavlebis samsaxuridan miRebuli informaciis safuZvelze

axorcielebs:

- satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis monacemTa bazis kontrols ZiriTadi

informaciuli velebis mixedviT - saqonlis kodi, fasi, wona, damatebiTi

zomis erTeuli, gamgzavni/mimRebi qveynis kodi;

- ZiriTadi saqonlis mixedviT zRvruli fasis kontrols da

Sesabamisad, raodenobis, Rirebulebis an damatebiTi zomis erTeulis

koreqtirebas;

- im saqonlis amoRebas Semosavlebis samsaxuris monacemTa bazidan,

romelic ar ganekuTvneba saqonliT sagareo vaWrobas (mimoqcevaSi myofi

fasiani qaRaldebi, banknotebi da monetebi; droebiT Semotanili da

gatanili saqoneli (maT Soris saerTaSoriso gamofenebze); diplomatiuri

da sxva saxis tvirTebi, romlebic saerTaSoriso meTodologiis mixedviT

ar Sedis saqonliT sagareo vaWrobaSi).

saqonlis eqsport-importis aRricxvisaTvis gamoiyeneba “sagareo

ekonomikuri saqmianobis sasaqonlo nomenklatura (sesn 2012)”, romelic

agebulia saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistemis bazaze.

RirebulebiTi maCveneblebi mocemulia aSS dolarebSi. statistikuri

Rirebulebis gaangariSeba aSS dolarebSi xorcieldeba sabaJo organoebismier satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis gaformebis momentSi Tbilisis

bankTaSoris savaluto birJaze dadgenili oficialuri gacvliTi kursiT.



277

saqarTveloSi sagareo vaWrobis statistikis droiTi (dinamikuri)

mwkrivebi xelmisawvdomia 1995 wlidan, rogorc calkeuli qveynebis, ise

sasaqonlo nomenklaturis WrilSi.

monacemebi muSavdeba da sistematurad qveyndeba yovelTviuri

periodulobiT. 2012 wlidan saqstati axorcielebs eqspres informaciis

gavrcelebas saangariSo Tvis dasrulebidan me-16 dRes, romelic moicavs

eqsportis, importis, sagareo savaWro brunvisa da savaWro balansis

agregirebul monacemebs. rac Seexeba detalur informacias calkeuli

qveynebisa da sasaqonlo nomenklaturis WrilSi, is qveyndeba saangariSo

Tvis dasrulebidan 24-e dRes.

7.4. sagareo vaWrobis moculobisa da struqturis statistikuri analizi

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi farTo

sferoa sagareo vaWrobis statistika. igi gulisxmobs saqonlis moZraobas

qveynis gareT da piriqiT, ,,danarCeni msofliodan“ mocemul qveyanaSi.

saqonlis moZraobis pirveli mimarTuleba aris eqsporti, xolo meore –

importi. aqve aucilebelia reeqsportis cnebis ganmartebac: reeqsporti

aris romelime qveynidan importirebuli produqciis gatana sxva qveyanaSi.

sagareo vaWrobis statistika reeqsports aRricxavs eqsportis mTlian

moculobaSi.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia

aseve sagareo vaWrobis saldo, romelic warmoadgens sxvaobas eqsportisa

da importis sidideebs Soris. igi SeiZleba iyos pozitiuri (dadebiTi,

aqtiuri), rodesac eqsportis moculoba aWarbebs imports da negatiuri

(uaryofiTi, pasiuri), rodesac sapirispiro SemTxvevaa, anu importis sidide

metia eqsportis moculobaze.



278

sagareo vaWrobis statistika Seiswavlis eqsport-importis rogorc

mTlian moculobas dinamikaSi, aseve calkeuli qveynebisa da maTi jgufebis

mixedviT (magaliTad, evrokavSiris qveynebi, Savi zRvis auzis qveynebi da

a.S.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikis Seswavlis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani

sferoa aseve produqciis eqsport-importis struqturis Seswavla

sasaqonlo jgufebis mixedviT. maTi raodenobrivi asaxva xdeba rogorc

dinamikaSi, ise calkeuli qveynebisa da maTi jgufebis mixedviT. eqsportisa

da importis moculobisa da struqturis maCveneblebi gaiangariSeba

rogorc naturalur, ise RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi.

sagareo vaWrobis analizSi mraval statistikur meTodTan erTadfarTod gamoiyeneba SefardebiTi maCveneblebi. maTgan erT-erTi

mniSvnelovania sagareo vaWrobis moculoba saSualod 1 mcxovrebze,

romlis gaangariSeba xorcieldeba Semdegnairad:

,S

Q K br.

sadac Q aris sagareo vaWrobis mTliani brunva;

S - mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnoba.

sagareo vaWrobis analizSi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia aseve eqsportis

saSualo sidide erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT, romelic ase gamoiTvleba:

eqsp. K S

E ,

sadac E aris eqsportis moculoba;


sagareo vaWrobis analizisas aucilebelia aseve importis moculobis

SefardebiTi sididis gaangariSeba, romelic Semdegnairad gamoiTvleba:

S K

Imimp. ,

sadac Im aris importis moculoba;




279

importisa da eqsportis moculobebs Soris sxvaobas ewodeba sagareo

vaWrobis saldo, romelic mniSvnelovan maxasiaTebels warmoadgens

nebismieri qveynis sagareo vaWrobis analizSi. Tu am absolutur sidides

gavyofT mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnobaze, miviRebT sagareo vaWrobissaldos SefardebiT maCvenebels, romelic miuTiTebs sagareo vaWrobis

deficiturobis an proficiturobis mniSvnelovnebaze. igi ase gaiangariSeba

S

N K saldo ,

sadac N aris sagareo vaWrobis saldos absoluturi sidide;


sagareo vaWrobis statistikur analizSi mniSvnelovan maCvenebelswarmoadgens importisa da eqsportis moculobis Tanafardoba. igi SeiZleba

gaviangariSoT 2 wesiT, kerZod: pirvel SemTxvevaSi importis moculoba

gaiyofa eqsportis sidideze, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi ki piriqiT. meore

wesis gamoyeneba mizanSewonilia im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac eqsportis

moculoba metia importis sidideze. am maCveneblebis gamoTvlis wesi

aseTia:

E K

Im

Tanaf. ;

sadac Im aris importis moculoba;

E - eqsportis sidide.

saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi mricxveli da mniSvneli Seicvlian adgilebs.

aqve unda aRvniSnoT, rom es maCvenebeli SeiZleba gamoiTvalos

koeficientis an procentis saxiT.

saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris oficialuri

monacemebis mixedviT, saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis ganzogadebuli

maCveneblebi 2007 – 2012 wlebisaTvis aseTia (ix. Semdegi cxrili):



280

cxrili 1. saqarTvelos sagareo vaWroba

(mln aSS dolari)

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemTa banki.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ს გ რეო ს ვ ჭრო

რუნვ

6444 7797 5634 6935 9247 10220

ს ქონლის

რეგისტრირე ული

ექსპორტი

1232 1495 1134 1677 2189 2377

ს ქონლის

რეგისტრირე ული

იმპორტი

5212 6302 4500 5257 7058 7842

ს გ რეო ვ ჭრო ის

ს ლდო -3980 -4806 -3367 -3580 -4869 -5465

oficialuri statistikis mixedviT, 2012 wels saqarTvelos savaWro

urTierToba hqonda msoflios 121 qveyanasTan. maTgan 10 umsxvilesi savaWro

partniori qveynebis jgufi aseTi maCveneblebiT xasiaTdeba (ix. Semdegicxrili):

cxrili 2. saqarTvelos umsxvilesi savaWro partniori qveynebi 2012 wlis

brunvis mixedviT



281

eqsporti

aTasi aSS %

dolari

importi

aTasi aSS

dolari

%

savaWro brunva

aTasi aSS %

dolari

sul

2 377 455,0 100,0 7 842 108,9 100,0 10 219563,9 100,0

maT Soris:

TurqeTi 142 777,0 6,0 1 392937,5

17,8 1 535 714,4 15,0

azerbaijani 626 854,9 26,4 633 541,8 8,1 1 260 396,7 12,3

ukraina 167 016,3 7,0 597 099,6 7,6 764 115,9 7,5CineTi 25 607,1 1,1 565 950,7 7,2 591 557,8 5,8

germania 38 571,9 1,6 541 896,7 6,9 580 468,6 5,7

ruseTi 45 816,0 1,9 473 796,8 6,0 519 612,9 5,1

aSS 226 170,9 9,5 213 156,9 2,7 439 327,8 4,3

bulgareTi 69 654,7 2,9 271 475,4 3,5 341 130,1 3,3

somxeTi 260 981,6 11,0 70 405,5 0,9 331 387,0 3,2

italia 53 330,1 2,2 270 969,3 3,5 324 299,4 3,2

danarCenipartnioriqveynebi -sul 720 674,5 30,3 2 810878,8 35,8 3 531 553,4 34,6

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemTa banki.

me-20 saukunis bolos da 21-e saukunis dasawyisSi saqarTvelos

sagareo vaWrobaSi EU-qveynebi mniSvnelovani partniorebi arian, Tumca maT

jamur sidides daaxloebiT 3-jer aRemateba damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa

Tanamegobrobis (dsT) sagareo savaWro brunvis moculoba. 2012 wlis



282

oficialuri statistikuri monacemebiT, EU –sTan saqarTvelos sagareo

vaWrobis moculobamEUSeadgina 2 759,9 mln. aSS dolari, rac saqarTvelos

mTeli sagareo vaWrobis moculobis TiTqmis meoTxedi, anu 24,3 procenti

Seadgina. 10 wlis win ki, e. i. 2003 wels, analogiuri maCvenebeli iyo

TiTqmis mesamedi, anu 30,6 procenti. maSasadame, aRniSnuli periodisaTvis

EU –sTan saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis absoluturi moculobis zrdis

miuxedavad, misi SefardebiTi sidide, anu xvedriTi wili Semcirebulia.

sainteresoa aseve saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis mTlian moculobaSi

eqsportis sididis statistikuri analizi rogorc calkeuli qveynebis, ise

maTi jgufebis mixedviT. amis sailustraciod movitanoT Semdegi diagrama:

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri.

rogorc am diagramidan Cans, 2013 wlis pirvel naxevarSi saqarTvelos

eqsportSi umsxviles savaWro partniori qveynebis jgufs warmoadgens dsT,

romlis wilad modis eqsportis mTliani moculobis naxevarze meti, anu 55



283

procenti. pirvel 3 adgilzea azerbaijani, somxeTi da aSS. eqsportis

mTlian moculobaSi Semdegia EU-s qveynebi, romlebic 17 procents ikaveben.

maTgan pirvel 3 adgilze arian bulgareTi, italia da germania. garkveul

interess iwvevs 10 wlis winandeli monacemebi, rodesac eqsportis mTliani

moculobis mixedviT aseTi mdgomareoba dafiqsirda: 2003 wels

saqarTvelos eqsportis mixedviT umsxvilesi partniori qveynebis pirvel

aTeulSi EU-s wevri mxolod ori qveyana iyo (germania da gaerTianebuli

samefo), xolo importis mixedviT ki _ EU-s wevri 4 qveyana: germania,

gaerTianebuli samefo, safrangeTi da italia. sainteresoa is faqti, rom

2003 wels germaniisa da gaerTianebuli samefos savaWro brunvis

moculobam erTad (257,3 mln. aSS dolari) Seadgina evrokavSirTan

saqarTvelos mTliani savaWro brunvis naxevarze meti, anu TiTqmis 56

procenti.

2003 wels savaWro brunvis moculobis saSualo sididem evrokavSiris

wevr erT qveyanaze gaangariSebiT Seadgina 30,7 mln. aSS dolari (es

maCvenebeli gamoTvlilia martivi ariTmetikuli saSualos formuliT), anu:

n

y

Y

i . Tu am konkretul saSualo sidides aviRebT dajgufebis

safuZvlad, maSin miviRebT qveynebis or jgufs: 1. im qveynebis jgufi,

romlebsac saqarTvelosTan aqvs saSualoze maRali sididis savaWro

brunvis moculoba; 2. qveynebis meore jgufi, romlebsac aqvT saSualoze

dabali savaWro brunvis moculoba. Cveni azriT, aseTi saSualo

maCvenebeli SeiZleba miviCnioT savaWro urTierTobis ganviTarebis zogad

kriteriumad. am SemTxvevaSi misi konkretuli piroba aseTia: Tu saSualo

sidideze maRali moculoba eqneba gansaxilveli qveynebis mTliani

raodenobis naxevarze mets, maSin savaWro urTierTobis ganviTarebis

masStabi (sazRvrebi) farToa. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi savaWro urTierTobis

ganviTareba arasakmarisi da uTanabroa. es bolo piroba Seesabameba amJamad

saqarTvelosa da EUEU-s wevr qveynebs Soris savaWro urTierTobis

ganviTarebis dones: is jer kidev arasakmarisia.



284

7.5. ucxouri investiciebis statistika

nebismier qveyanaSi investiciebisaTvis xelsayreli garemos

Seqmna prioritetul mimarTulebad aris miCneuli. Ees gansakuTrebiT

mniSvnelovania saqarTvelosaTvis, roca qveynis ekonomikuri da

politikuri ganviTareba da saerTaSoriso, gansakuTrebiT evropuli,

integraciisaken swrafva xelisuflebis interesis sferoSia moqceuli.

sainvesticio saqmianoba investiciebis dabandebis, anu

investirebis realizaciisaTvis praqtikuli qmedebebis erTobliobaa.

sainvesticio saqmianobis monawileebad iTvlebian fizikuri, aseve

iuridiuli pirebi, maT Soris ucxoelebi, agreTve qveynebi da

saerTaSoriso organizaciebi. investiciebi dabandebis saxeobebis

mixedviT iyofa finansur dabandebad da investiciebad arafinansur

aqtivebSi. dabandebebis wyaroebis mixedviT investiciebi iyofa

sakuTar da nasesxebad. sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT _ adgilobriv

da ucxour investiciebad.

ganviTarebul qveynebSi investiciebis umetes nawils Seadgens

finansuri investiciebi. amis gamo praqtikaSi zogjer gamoiyenebainvesticiebis SedarebiT viwro gageba, romelic Semoifargleba

mxolod finansuri investiciebiT. finansuri dabandebebi warmoadgens

fuladi saxsrebis, materialuri da sxva faseulobebis sxva

iuridiuli piris fasian qaRaldebSi dabandebas; agreTve, dabandebebs

saxelmwifo da adgilobrivi sesxebis obligaciebSi, qveynis

teritoriaze Seqmnili sxva iuridiuli pirebis kapitalSi, ucxouri

sawarmos kapitalSi da a. S., aseve erTi iuridiuli piris mier meoreiuridiuli pirisaTvis gacemul sesxebs.

investiciebs arafinansur aqtivebSi miekuTvneba: investiciebi

ZiriTad kapitalSi, danaxarjebi kapitalur SekeTebaze, investiciebi

miwis nakveTisa da bunebaTsargeblobis obieqtebis SesaZenad,



285

investiciebi aramaterialur aqtivebSi (kompiuteruli programuli

produqtebi, patentebi, licenziebi, samecniero-kvleviTi da sacdel-

sakonstruqtoro samuSaoebi da a. S.), aseve investiciebi materialuri

sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis Sesaqmnelad.

ZiriTad kapitalSi investiciebi warmoadgens im xarjebis

erTobliobas, romelic mimarTulia ZiriTadi kapitalis SesaZenad,

Sesaqmnelad da kvlavwarmoebisaTvis. kvlavwarmoebis struqturasa da

ZiriTadi fondebis specifikis Sesabamisad, investiciebi ZiriTad

kapitalSi ganisazRvreba rogorc danaxarjebi samSeneblo da

samontaJo samuSaoebze, saproeqto-saZiebo samuSaoebze,

mowyobilobebis SeZenaze, sawarmoo instrumentebisa da sameurneo

inventaris SeZenaze, mravalwliani kulturebisa da tyeebis gaSenebaze

da danarCen kapitalur samuSaoebze.

aramaterialur aqtivebSi igulisxmeba: kompiuteruli

programuli produqtebi, patentebi, licenziebi, savaWro markebi,

savaWro niSnebi, miwis nakveTebiT sargeblobis ufleba,

bunebaTsargeblobis obieqtebi, saavtoro uflebebi, saorganizacio

danaxarjebi da sxva.

Tavis mxriv, investiciebi SeiZleba iyos sarisko, pirdapiri da

portfeluri. sarisko investiciebi dakavSirebulia iseTi kapitalis

arsebobasTan, romelic warmoadgens investiciebs axali aqciebis

gamoSvebis formiT. es investiciebi Caideba iseTi saxis obieqtebze an

saqmianobis sferoSi, romelic dakavSirebulia did riskTan. zemoT

xsenebuli kapitali investirdeba erTmaneTisagan damoukidebel

proeqtebSi Cadebuli saxsrebis daCqarebulad amoRebis mizniT.

kapitaldabandebani, rogorc wesi, xorcieldeba mwarmoebeli

klientis aqciaTa nawilis SesyidviT, an masze sesxis gacemiT.



286

kapitalis riskiani dabandeba ganpirobebulia wvrili firmebis

dafinansebiT axali teqnologiebis sferoSi.

pirdapiri investiciebi warmoadgenen dabandebebs sameurneo

obieqtis sawesdebo kapitalSi Semosavlis miRebisa da investiciebis

marTvaSi monawileobis uflebis miRebis mizniT.

portfeluri investiciebi gulisxmobs fasiani qaRaldebisa da

sxva aqtivebis SeZenas es aris sxvadasxva sainvesticio RirebulebaTa

erToblioba, romelnic gvevlinebian ZiriTad instrumentad

konkretuli sainvesticio miznis misaRwevad. portfelSi SeiZleba

Sevides erTi tipis Ffasiani qaRaldebi, mag: aqciebi, an sxvadasxva

investiciuri Rirebulebebi, mag: obligaciebi, Semnaxveli da

sadepozito serTifikatebi, sagirao mowmobebi, sadazRvevo polisebi

da sxva.

7.5.1. investiciebis statistikuri Seswavlis amocanebi da

informaciis wyaroebi

investiciebs ekonomikisa da mTlianad qveynis ganviTarebisaTvis

udidesi mniSvneloba eniWeba nebismier saxelmwifoSi. es gansakuTrebiT

mniSvnelovania iseTi qveynisaTvis, rogoric saqarTveloa,

gansakuTrebiT maSin, roca ekonomikis ama Tu im dargSi seriozuli

cvlilebebi mimdinareobs da ikveTeba is prioritetebi, romlebic

aucilebelia qveynis Semdgomi ganviTarebisaTvis.

erT-erT aseT prioritetad miCneulia adgilobrivi Tu ucxouri

investiciebis ganxorcielebis xelSewyoba, romelTa raodenobasa da

xarisxze didadaa damokidebuli saerTod qveynis ekonomikis

ganviTareba. ganxorcielebuli investiciebis sworad aRricxva xels

uwyobs im prioritetuli dargebis warmoCenas, romlebSic



287

investiciebis ganxorcieleba didi finansuri efeqtis momtania

qveynisaTvis.

investiciebis statistikuri Seswavla saSualebas iZleva sworad

gadaiWras mis winaSe dasmuli Semdegi amocanebi: investiciebis

moculobisa da struqturis absoluturi, SefardebiTi da saSualo

maCveneblebis, aseve maTi cvlilebis tempebis gaangariSeba;

investiciebis wyaroebisa da sferoebis analizi; investiciebis

ekonomikuri efeqtianobisa da sainvesticio saqmianobis intensivobis

maCvenebelTa gansazRvra.

statistikis amocana mdgomareobs investiciebis moculobis,

struqturis, Semadgenlobis, misi riskis gawevis SeswavlaSi da

dinamikur analizSi, aseve Sesabamisi prognozebis SemuSavebaSi.

investiciebis Sesaxeb sruli, Sesadarisi da drouli

statistikuri monacemebis miReba ekonomikuri analizis Catarebisa da

qveynis swori ekonomikuri politikis winapirobas warmoadgens. aseT

statistikur monacemebs gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs rogorc

qveynis ekonomikisaTvis, ise calkeuli firmebisaTvis.

investiciebis Sesaxeb statistikuri informaciis ZiriTad

wyaroebs warmoadgens saxelmwifo statistikuri dakvirvebis

monacemebi, firmebis sabuRaltro angariSebi, administraciuli

monacemebi (magaliTad, monacemebi uZravi qonebis saxelmwifo

registraciis Sesaxeb) da sxv.

firmebis sabuRaltro angariSebi Seicavs informacias

investiciebis finansuri maCveneblebis Sesaxeb, saangariSo periodis

dasawyisisa da dasasrulis mdgomareobiT, maTi saxeebad ganawilebis

(aqciebi, obligaciebi, sesxebi da a. S.), saangariSo periodis

ganmavlobaSi grZelvadiani investiciebis dafinansebis saSualebebis

moZraobis, mimdinare, sainvesticio da safinanso saqmianobis sferoSi



288

fuladi saSualebebis Semosavlebisa da gasavlebis, ZiriTadi

kapitalis Semosavlebisa da gasavlebis Sesaxeb.

saxelmwifo statistikuri dakvirvebis farglebSi investiciebis

Sesaxeb cnobebis Segroveba xorcieldeba yovelkvartalurad, xolo

calkeuli monacemebis mixedviT _ yovelTviurad. statistikuri

dakvirvebis formebi daegzavneba uklebliv yvela organizacias,

romlebic ar warmoadgenen mcire subieqtebs (sawarmoebs). mcire

sawarmoo subieqtebi gamoikvlevian SerCeviT, gamartivebuli formiT,

SerCeviTi statistikuri meTodis gamoyenebiT. Semdeg ki SerCevis

Sedegebi vrceldeba mcire sawarmoTa mTel erTobliobaze.

statistikuri dakvirveba saSualebas iZleva miviRoT Semdegi

saxis informacia:

1. saangariSo periodSi finansuri investiciebis nakadebisa da maTi

sididis Sesaxeb am periodis bolos (rogorc mocemuli

organizaciis mier sxva erTeulebSi mimarTuli investiciebis, ise

mocemul organizaciaSi Cadebuli investiciebis mixedviT);

2. organizaciis mier arafinansuri aqtivebis Seqmnasa da SeZenazemimarTuli investiciebis nakadebis Sesaxeb (maTi saxeobebis

WrilSi);

3. investiciebisaTvis gamonaxul saSualebaTa wyaroebis Sesaxeb.

sawarmoebidan miRebul cnobebs ZiriTad kapitalSi

investiciebis Sesaxeb emateba gaangariSebiTi monacemebi im

investiciebis Sesaxeb, romlebic xorcieldeba fizikuri pirebis mier.

investiciebis statistikis formireba moiTxovs adre arsebul

maCvenebelTa sistemis srulyofas. maCvenebelTa klasifikacia

pirobiTad SeiZleba movaxdinoT Semdegi jgufebis mixedviT: 1)

proeqtis efeqtianobis analizis, 2) sawarmos finansuri mdgomareobisa

da 3) investiciebis efeqtianobis maCveneblebi.



289

investiciuri proeqtis efeqtianobis maCveneblebi SeiZleba

daiyos or ZiriTad jgufad: sawarmoo saqmianobis efeqtianobis

maCveneblebad da sawarmos finansuri mdgomareobis maCveneblebad.

investiciebis efeqtianobis maCveneblebs miekuTvneba:

1. yovelwliuri Semosavlis saangariSgebo done ganisazRvreba,

rogorc sxvaoba saerTo investiciebsa da maT calkeul Rirebulebas

Soris proeqtis sicocxlisunarianobis vadisaTvis.

2. proeqtis aTvisebis periodi. am periodSi iTvleba is dro

(weli, Tve), romlis ganmavlobaSic sawarmos sawarmoo saqmianobidan

ifareba investiciebze danaxarji. aTvisebis vada, Cveulebriv izomeba

wlobiT an TveobiT da gamoiTvleba investiciebis (gadasaxadebis)

Tanxis SefardebiT sawarmoo saqmianobis yovelwliur SemosavlebTan.

sainvesticio procesi yovelTvis raRac zomis riskTanaa

dakavSirebuli. axali saqmis dawyebisas, warmoebaSi fulis

dabandebisas, aqciebis paketis SeZenisas, birJaze TamaSisas da a. S.,

riski _ es aris saSiSroeba realuri dabandebuli saxsrebis

dakargvisa, an TiToeul dabandebul larze gaTvaliswinebulze ufro

dabali mogebis miRebis albaToba, agreTve, kapitalis gaufasureba

inflaciuri procesebis Sedegad. mewarmem unda gaiTvaliswinos, rom

is riskavs. investirebis saboloo Sedegi SeiZleba ar iyos iseTi,

rogorsac warmoidgenda investori dagegmvis dros.

risks SeiZleba mivakuTvnoT, agreTve, SesaZlebeli moTxovnileba

damatebiT, adre gauTvaliswinebel, anu ganusazRvrel dabandebebze,

situaciis gauTvaliswinebel cvlilebebTan dakavSirebiT.

gauTvaliswinebeli danakargebisa da danaxarjebis riskTan

dakavSirebulia ara mxolod investoris gamoCena axal bazarze,

aramed _ misi wasvlac bazridan saqonlis daZvelebis da masze

moTxovnilebis dacemis gamo.



290

sainvesticio riskis daxasiaTeba da misi regulirebis

SesaZleblobebi SeiZleba miRebul iqnes statistikuri mecnierebis

meTodebis gamoyenebiT. maT ricxvs miekuTneba aseve is meTodebi,

romlebic dafuZnebulni arian statistikuri gadawyvetilebis

Teoriaze (riskis Teoria) da statistikuri cdebis meTodi (e. w.

“monte-karlos” meTodi). statistikuri gadawyvetilebebis Teoria

saSualebas iZleva alternatiuli variantebidan arCeul iqnes

optimaluri sabazro strategia ganusazRvrelobis pirobebSi,

statistikuri dakvirvebis Sedegad miRebuli Sedegebis mixedviT.

optimalurad ki iTvleba is gadawyvetileba, romelic uzrunvelyofs

riskis minimizacias.

7.5.2. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis (FDI) moculobis gaangariSebis

mokle meTodologia da praqtika saqarTveloSi

(saqstatis oficialuri versiis mixedviT)

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi qveynis sagadasaxdelo balansis

erT-erT mniSvnelovan Semadgenel komponents warmoadgens. saqarTveloSimisi moculobis gaangariSeba daiwyo saxelmwifo statistikis samsaxurma

1997 wlidan, rasac safuZvlad daedo saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis mier

SemuSavebuli meTodologia ,,sagadasaxdelo balansis saxelmZRvanelo”,

mexuTe gamocema; vaSingtoni, 1993 weli.

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Sesaxeb informaciis ZiriTad

wyaroebs warmoadgens saqstatis mier warmoebuli kvartaluri da wliuri

periodulobis statistikuri gamokvleva sawarmoTa sagareo ekonomikuri

saqmianobis Sesaxeb. garda amisa, informacia miiReba saqarTvelos

ekonomikuri da mdgradi ganviTarebis saministrodan da aseve aWaris

avtonomiuri respublikis finansTa da ekonomikis saministrodan

ararezidenti subieqtebis mier privatizebuli obieqtebis Sesaxeb.



291

saqarTvelos erovnuli banki awarmoebs saqarTvelos safinanso

sferoSi, kerZod, komerciul bankebSi, sadazRvevo kompaniebsa da

mikrosafinanso organizaciebSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebis Sesaxeb informaciis Segrovebas, damuSavebas da

yovelkvartalurad saqstatisaTvis miwodebas.

sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sesaxeb statistikuri gamokvleva

amJamad moicavs saqarTvelos yvela regions (arakontrolirebadi

teritoriebis garda) da 2000-mde samewarmeo subieqts. gamosakvlev obieqtTa

SerCeva xorcieldeba Semdegi ZiriTadi kriteriumebis mixedviT:

- sawarmos hyavs ararezidenti damfuZnebeli;

- axorcielebs eqsport-importis operaciebs;

- ararezidentebisgan aqvs aRebuli sesxi an gacemuli maTze;

- depozitebi aqvs ganTavsebuli ararezident bankebSi;

- flobs ararezidenti sawarmos sawesdebo an saaqcio kapitalis 10%-s da

mets;

- ararezidentebs uwevs an maTgan iRebs momsaxurebas.

yovelkvartalurad xorcieldeba SerCeul sawarmoTa ganaxleba maTi

saqmianobisa da damfuZnebelTa klasifikaciis mixedviT.

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis ZiriTadi komponentebia: saaqcio

kapitali, reinvesticia da sxva kapitali.

1997 wlidan statistikuri monacemebi muSavdeba investori qveynebis

WrilSi. 2007 wlidan gamokvlevis instrumentarSi Sevida garkveuli

cvlilebebi, ramac saSualeba mogvca monacemebi dagvemuSavebina ekonomikis

seqtorebis WrilSi, rasac safuZvlad udevs sawarmoTa ZiriTadi

saqmianobis mixedviT dayofa. monacemTa sxvadasxva informaciuli wyaroebis

safuZvelze SesaZlebelia pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis monacemTagaangariSeba informaciis wyaroebis mixedviT.

winaswari monacemebis gamoqveyneba xorcieldeba yovelkvartalurad

saangariSo periodis dasrulebidan 70-e dRes. oTxi kvartalis SejamebiT



292

miiReba winaswari wliuri monacemebi, romlis dazustebac warmoebs

wliuri gamokvlevis monacemebis safuZvelze momdevno wlis 15 agvistos.

dazustebuli monacemebi yovelTvis gansxvavebulia winaswarisagan. amis

erT-erTi yvelaze mTavari mizezi isaa, rom sawarmoebi waradgenen

dazustebuli mogeba-zaralis maCveneblebs.

winaswar da dazustebul monacemebs Soris sxvaoba dinamikaSi ar

warmoadgens iSviaTobas, radgan pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi ar aris

mxolod fiqsirebul aqtivebSi ganxorcielebuli investicia. igi finansuri

kategoriaa da misi dadebiTi da uaryofiTi mniSvnelobac saerTaSoriso

meTodologiur CarCoebSi da standartebSi Tavsdeba.

zogadad pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Semcirebis mizezebi

SeiZleba iyos: ararezidentis mier wilis daTmoba rezidentisaTvis,

ararezidenti pirdapiri investoris reklasifikacia portfelis

investorad, rezidenti sawarmos mier ararezidenti pirdapiri investoris

mimarT arsebuli valdebulebebis Semcireba da sxva.

saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris oficialuri

monacemebis mixedviT (konkretuli wyaro: statistikuri gamokvleva

„sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sesaxeb“), 2013 wlis II kvartalSi

ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis mixedviT umsxvilesi

seqtorebis wilma 96 procenti Seadgina. yvelaze meti pirdapiri ucxouri

investicia energetikis seqtorSi ganxorcielda da 66 mln. aSS dolari

Seadgina, rac mTliani pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis 29 procentia.

meore adgilze imyofeba damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 59 mln. aSS dolariT,

xolo mesameze - transporti da kavSirgabmuloba 46 mln. aSS dolariT.

ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT 2013 wlis II kvartalSi

ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi procentulad aseganawilda:

- energetika 29%;

- damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 25%;

- transporti da kavSirgabmuloba 20%;



293

- mSenebloba 17%;

- safinanso seqtori 6%;

- ekonomikis sxva seqtorebi 3%.

oficialuri statistika Seagrovebs, daamuSavebs da gaaanalizebs

saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Sesaxeb

raodenobriv monacemebs Tveebis, kvartalebis Tu wlebis mixedviT da,

amasTan erTad, ekonomikis seqtorebis WrilSi. garda amisa, aseTi

statistika iwarmoeba teritoriis mixedviTac, anu konkretulad romeli

qveynidan ra moculobis pirdapiri investiciebia Semosuli. am etapebis

ganxorcielebis Semdeg ukve qveyndeba miRebuli Sedegebi. aRniSnulis

sailustraciod movitanoT Semdegi cxrili:

cxrili 3. saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebi qveynebis mixedviT

weli

qveynebi

2000 2005 2007 2010 2012

sul, mln aSS dolari 131,2 449,8 2,014,8 814,5 865,2

maT Soris:evrokavSiris qveynebi - sul 41,6 243,8 1,132,7 248,2 402,2

evrokavSiris qveynebidan 10umsxvilesi investoriqveyana (2012 wlis mixedviT)

germania 3,3 5,0 57,0 12,9 141,7

niderlandebi 4,4 0,5 299,3 73,4 87,6

gaerTianebuli samefo 4,8 132,9 145,5 59,0 66,8

luqsemburgi - 0,6 9,3 7,1 41,8

kviprosi 3,9 47,5 148,6 40,4 39,6

safrangeTi - 14,4 43,7 -7,8 26,9

malta - - - 16,8 13,4



294

avstria - 243,8 11,4 10,1 7,6

slovakeTi - - - 0,01 5,3

espaneTi - - 3,6 0,1 4,4

dsT-is qveynebi - sul 6,1 107,8 238,4 91,2 114,2

dsT-is qveynebidan 5umsxvilesi investoriqveyana (2012 wlis mixedviT)azerbaijani - 66,9 41,4 58,0 72,7

ruseTi 6,1 - 89,0 47,9 25,6

yazaxeTi - - 88,5 -16,6 11,8

yirgizeTi - - - 14,1 6,2

somxeTi - 0,4 -4,9 -16,5 3,1

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemTa baza.

motanili cxrilidan naTlad Cans saqarTvelos ZiriTadi investori

qveynebi da maTi gaerTianebebi sxvadasxva wlebis mixedviT.

7.6. saxelmwifo sagareo valis statistika

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi

mniSvnelovan mimarTulebas warmoadgens saxelmwifo sagareo valis

raodenobrivi Seswavla. mas didi mniSvneloba aqvs qveynis

gadaxdisunarianobis gansazRvraSi da momavali kreditebis miRebis

moculobis dadgenaSi. Tanamedrove etapze qveynebis umetesobas gaaCniasxvadasxva sididis vali sxva qveynebisa Tu saerTaSoriso organizaciebis

winaSe. bevr qveyanaSi xSiria SemTxvevebi, rodesac biujetis deficitis

dasafinanseblad adgili aqvs finansuri valdebulebebis aRebas, romlebic

or kategoriad iyofa - sagareo da saSinao valdebulebebad. sagareo valis

moculoba da misi SefardebiTi maCveneblebis zomier standartebSi moqceva



295

yvela qveynis mTavrobebisTvis ekonomikuri politikis erT-erTi mniSvnelo-

vani nawilia.

sagareo valis oficialuri statistikis warmoeba ZiriTadad emyareba

msoflio bankisa da saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis rekomendaciebs

(ixileT: ,,sagareo valis statistika”, vaSingtoni, 2003 weli).

mTliani sagareo valis statistika harmonizebulia sagadasaxdelo

balansTan. igi moicavs saxelmwifo (samTavrobo seqtori da erovnuli

banki) da kerZo seqtoris (sabanko da sxva seqtorebi) sagareo vals.

msoflioSi miRebuli praqtikis Sesabamisad, saxelmwifo valis zeda

zRvrad mTliani Sida produqtis mimarT valis moculobis 60-procentiani

done miiCneva. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom saqarTvelos sagareo vali mSp-is

37, xolo qveynis mTliani vali ki miaxloebiT 43 procentia. maSasadame, mSp-

s mimar saqarTvelos sagareo vali msoflios bevr sxva qveyanasTan

SedarebiT, ar aris maRali. saxelmwifo valis maCveneblebis Semcireba

daiwyo 2003 wlidan. magram 2008 wlidan sapirispiro procesi dafiqsirda,

rac gamovlinda saxelmwifo valis maCveneblebis droebiT zrdaSi 2008-2010

wlebSi globaluri finansuri da ekonomikuri krizisis fonze, romelmacuaryofiTad imoqmeda ekonomikuri zrdis tempebze ara marto

saqarTveloSi, aramed mTel msoflioSi. saqarTvelos sagareo valis

SefardebiTi maCveneblebis klebis tendencia gagrZelda 2011 wlidan. sxva

qveynebis analogiur maCveneblebTan Sedareba gviCvenebs, rom saqarTvelos

sagareo valis SefardebiTi done gacilebiT ufro dabalia, vidre bevr

ganviTarebul qveyanaSi.

oficialuri statistikis mixedviT, saqarTvelos mTlianma sagareo

valma 2012 wlis 31 martis mdgomareobiT 11,4 miliardi aSS dolari (18,9

miliardi lari) Seadgina. aqedan 3,8 miliardi aSS dolari (6,3 mlrd lari)

iyo samTavrobo seqtoris vali (mTliani valis 33,4%); 783,1 mln aSS

dolari (1,3 mlrd lari, 6,9%) - erovnuli bankis; 2,1 miliardi aSS dolari



296

(3,5 mlrd lari, 18,3%) - sabanko seqtoris, xolo danarCeni - sxva

seqtorebis.

unda aRiniSnos, rom Tanamedrove etapze saxelmwifo valis

moculobis zrda damaxasiaTebelia ara mxolod ganviTarebadi

qveynebisaTvis, aramed bevri ganviTarebuli qveynisTvisac (maT Soris

evrokavSiris wevri qveynebisTvis). davalianebis zrdas ganapirobebs

mravali endogenuri da egzogenuri (anu Siga da gare) faqtorebi. maTgan

SeiZleba gamoiyos Semdegi:

- saxelmwifo biujetis qronikuli deficiti;

- mSp-is zrdis tempebis Semcireba;

- sagadasaxdelo balansis deficitis mniSvnelovani gadideba;

- savaluto kursebis Zlieri ryevebi;

- sesxis momsaxurebis gadasaxdelebis mateba da sxv.

aRniSnuli faqtorebis uaryofiTi zegavlenis raodenobrivi gansazRvra

statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovan amocanas warmoadgens.

7.7. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistika

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi

mniSvnelovani sferoa am urTierTobebis geografiuli (teritoriuli)

ganawilebis Seswavla. igi moicavs ara mxolod sagareo vaWrobas, aramed

samecniero-teqnikur, safinanso-sabanko, saerTaSoriso satransporto

tvirTbrunvas da mgzavrTbrunvas, saerTaSoriso turizms, ucxour

investiciebs da sxv. igi gulisxmobs am procesebis amsaxveli maCveneblebis

dajgufebas calkeuli qveynebis da maTi gaerTianebebis mixedviT. cal-

calke aRiricxeba saeqsporto da saimporto urTierTobebi, gamoiTvleba

calkeuli qveynebis xvedriwilebi da xdeba maTi ranJireba. amis Sedegad

gamoiyofa 10 umsxvilesi qveyana rogorc eqsportis, ise importis mixedviT



297

(saqstatis praqtikidan gamomdinare). aseTi analizi xorcieldeba aseve

produqciis calkeuli jgufebis mixedviT da gamoiyofa umsxvilesi

sasaqonlo jgufebi eqsportisa da importis mixedviT. rogorc wesi,

ranJireba xdeba bolo (uaxlesi) monacemebis mixedviT.

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistikis ZiriTadi

amocanebs miekuTvneba:

1. sazRvargareTis calkeul qveynebTan da maT gaerTianebebTan

ekonomikur urTierTobaTa moculobisa da dinamikis Seswavla konkretuli

mimarTulebebis (sferoebis) mixedviT, rogoricaa, magaliTad, eqsport-

importi, safinanso-sakredito, sainvesticio da sxva saqmianobebi;

2. sazRvargareTis calkeul qveynebTan da maT gaerTianebebTanekonomikur urTierTobaTa struqturisa da dinamikis Seswavla konkretuli

procesebis mixedviT;

3. gansazRvros sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa efeqtianoba partniori

qveynebisa da maT gaerTianebebis mixedviT, calkeuli mimarTulebebis

WrilSi;

4. GgaiangariSos sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa moculobisa da

struqturis sxvadasxva vadiani prognozebi calkeuli qveynebisa da maTi

gaerTianebebis mixedviT da aseve calkeuli mimarTulebebis WrilSi.

sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa optimaluri geografiuli

ganlageba xels uwyobs sxva saxelmwifoebTan ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis

Semdgom gaRrmavebas da gafarToebas, sasaqonlo nakadebis teritoriuli

ganawilebis gaumjobesebas ama Tu im qveynis ekonomikuri Taviseburebebis

gaTvaliswinebiT, satransporto gadazidvebis optimizacias da sxva

mniSvnelovani amocanebis gadawyvetas.

mravali qveynis oficialuri statistikis Tanamedrove praqtikaSi ukve

farTod gamoiyeneba sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa procesebis Sesaxeb

monacemTa miRebis, damuSavebisa da analizis saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebi

da meTodologia, maT Soris teritoriul WrilSi Seswavlisas. am

SemTxvevaSi gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva majgufebeli niSnebi da kerZod,



298

qveynebis oficialuri samarTlebrivi gaerTianebis statusi, rogoricaa,

magaliTad, evrokavSiris qveynebi, damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa

Tanamegobrobis qveynebi, Savi zRvis auzis qveynebi da sxv. garda amisa,

SesaZlebelia dedamiwis kontinentebis mixedviT qveynebis dajgufebis

gamoyenebac, magaliTad, aziis qveynebi, afrikis qveynebi, amerikis qveynebi

da a. S.

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistikis erT-erT

mniSvnelovan amocanas miekuTvneba importisa da eqsportis moculobisa da

struqturis raodenobrivi Seswavla qveynebis gaerTianebebis mixedviT.

importis geografiuli ganawilebis empiriuli analizisaTvis movitanoT

Semdegi statistikuri monacemebi dinamikaSi (ix. Semdegi cxrili):

cxrili 4. importis moculoba dinamikaSi qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT

(mln aSS dolari)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

importis moculoba -

sul

855,3 904,7 995,0 967,8 986,5

maT Soris:

evropis qveynebidan 438,5 473,1 500,3 481,8 490,9

aziis qveynebidan 385,8 397,9 477,5 450,1 447,5

amerikis qveynebidan 29,5 32,0 15,3 34,4 45,2

afrikis qveynebidan 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,2 2,1

okeaneTis qveynebidan 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,3 0,8

gaviangariSoT:



299

a) qveynebis jgufebis xvedriTi wili importis mTlian moculobaSi

(procentobiT);

b) qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT saSualo absoluturi matebani;

g) qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT jaWvuri zrdis tempebi (procentobiT).

yoveli kiTxvis (a, b da g) pasuxebis Sedegebis mixedviT gaakeTeT

mokle daskvnebi.

amoxsna:

a) imisaTvis, rom gaviangariSoT qveynebis jgufebis xvedriTi wili

importis mTlian moculobaSi, saWiroa gavixsenoT struqturis

SefardebiTi sidideebis gaangariSebis wesi, romlis Tanaxmadac mocemulierTobliobis calkeuli nawilebis xvedriTi wili gaiangariSeba maTi

cal-calke gayofiT erTobliobis mTlian moculobaze da gamravlebuli

100-ze (procentuli gamosaxvis SemTxvevaSi). maSasadame, gveqneba:

evropis qveynebis xvedriTi wili importis mTlian moculobaSi,

calkeuli wlebis mixedviT (procentobiT):

2006 weli - %;3,51100

3,855

5,438

2007 weli - %;3,551007,904

1,473

2008 weli - %;5,581000,995

3,500

2009 weli - %;3,561000,967

8,481

2010 weli - %.4,571005,986

9,490



300

rogorc miRebuli Sedegebi gviCvenebs, 2006-2010 wlebisaTvis

saqarTvelos importis mTlian moculobaSi yovelwliurad udidesi

xvedriTi wili, anu naxevarze meti evropis qveynebis jgufze modis.

analogiuri wesiT gamoiTvleba sxva qveynebis jgufebis xvedriTi

wili importis mTlian moculobaSi.

b) imisaTvis, rom gaviangariSoT qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT

saSualo absoluturi matebani, saWiroa gavixsenoT saSualo absoluturi

matebis gaangariSebis zogadi wesi, romlis Tanaxmadac calkeuli

absoluturi matebebis jami unda gaiyos maT raodenobaze (martivi

ariTmetikuli saSualo). maSasadame, saTanado formulas aseTi saxe eqneba:

_

=n

i _

.

jer saWiroa calkeuli absoluturi matebis sidideebis gaangariSeba.

amisaTvis wlebis mixedviT mocemul droiT mwkrivSi yovel momdevno dones

gamoakldeba wina done. konkretuli gamoTvlebi movaxdinoT amerikis

qveynebis jgufis mixedviT, e. i.:

;5,25,290,321

;7,160,323,152

;1,193,154,343

.8,104,342,454

zemoT mocemul formulaSi SevitanT ra miRebul mniSvnelobebs,

miviRebT:

_

= 9,34

8,101,197,165,2

mln aSS dolari.



301

amrigad, amerikis qveynebis jgufis mixedviT saSualo absoluturma

matebam 2006-2010 wlebisaTvis saqarTvelos importis mTlian moculobaSi

Seadgina weliwadSi saSualod 3,9 mln aSS dolari.

analogiuri wesiT gamoiTvleba sxva qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT

saSualo absoluturi matebani importis mTlian moculobaSi.

g) qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT jaWvuri zrdis tempebis

gasaangariSeblad mocemul droiT mwkrivSi yoveli momdevno done unda

gaiyos wina doneze da miRebuli Sedegi gamravldes 100-ze (procentobiT

gaangariSebisas). amisaTvis unda gamoviyenoT Semdegi formula:

1001

i

i

y

yT zrd .

mocemuli formuliT konkretuli gaangariSebani movaxdinoT evropis

qveynebis jgufis mixedviT:

%;9,1071005,438

1,4732007T

%;8,1051001,473

3,5002008T

%;3,961003,500

8,4812009T

%.9,1011008,481

9,4902010T

rogorc miRebuli Sedegebi gviCvenebs, 2006-2010 wlebisaTvis

saqarTvelos importis mTlian moculobaSi evropis qveynebis jgufis

mixedviT jaWvuri zrdis tempebi 100 %-ze metia (2009 wlis garda).

analogiuri wesiT gamoiTvleba sxva qveynebis jgufebis mixedviT

jaWvuri zrdis tempebi saqarTveloSi importis mTlian moculobaSi.



302

7.8. sagadasaxdelo balansis statistika

sagadasaxdelo balansis warmoeba sagareo ekonomikuri

urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani funqciaa.

sagadasaxdelo balansi erovnul angariSTa sistemis erT-erTi mTavari

Semadgeneli nawilia, romelic axasiaTebs qveynis savaWro da finansur

urTierTobebs sazRvargareTTan da Sesabamisi operaciebis mixedviT asaxavs

savaluto Semosavlebsa da gasavlebs Soris Tanafardobas. istoriaSi

pirveli sagadasaxdelo balansi SemuSavda aSS-Si meoce saukunis 70-iani

wlebis bolos, Tumca mas win uZRoda Teoriuli da meTodologiuri

safuZvlebis damuSaveba (saTanado cnebebi, kategoriebi, maCveneblebi,

gaangariSebis wesi, forma da meTodebi da a. S.).

sagadasaxdelo balansis ZiriTadi maCveneblebia fuladi Semosavlebi

da gadasaxdelebi, rac dakavSirebulia saimporto da saeqsporto

operaciebTan, qveynis centraluri bankebis savaluto rezervebisa da oqros

maragebis moculobis cvlilebebTan, Semosavlebi da gasavlebi sxvadasxva

saxis momsaxurebisaTvis (saerTaSoriso satransporto da turistuli

momsaxurebisaTvis da sxv.), saerTaSoriso sakredito Semosavlebi da

gadasaxdelebi, ucxour investiciebTan dakavSirebuli Semosavlebi da

gadasaxdelebi da sxv.

nebismieri qveynis sagadasaxdelo balansis zogadi SefasebisaTvis

gamoiyeneba sagadasaxdelo balansis saldos raodenobrivi maCvenebeli.

sagadasaxdelo balansis saldo aris sagadasaxdelo balansis

Semosavlebsa da gasavlebs Soris sxvaoba, romelic SeiZleba iyos

dadebiTi (anu aqtiuri) an uaryofiTi (anu pasiuri). pirvel SemTxvevaSi

Semosavlebi aWarbebs gasavlebs, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi piriqiT,

gasavlebis moculoba metia Semosavlebze. ra Tqma unda, qveynisaTvis metad

sasurvelia aqtiuri sagadasaxdelo balansis saldos dafiqsireba, rac

drois garkveul periodSi ufro meti savaluto Semosavlebis miRebas

gulisxmobs.



303

sagadasaxdelo balansis struqtura moicavs 2 ZiriTad nawils. esenia:

1) mimdinare operaciebis angariSi, anu mimdinare angariSi da 2) kapitalisa

da finansuri resursebis angariSi. mimdinare angariSSi aisaxeba saqonliTa

da momsaxurebiT sagareo vaWroba, Semosavlebi da mimdinare transfertebi.

kapitalisa da finansuri operaciebis angariSi moicavs kapitalur

transfertebTan da arawarmoebul arafinansur aqtivebTan dakavSirebul

operaciebs, agreTve finansuri operaciebis angariSs, romelic, Tavis mxriv,

4 konkretul kategorias aerTianebs (pirdapiri investiciebi, portfelis

investiciebi, sxva investiciebi da sarezervo aqtivebi).

sagadasaxdelo balansi gulisxmobs monacemTa ormag Caweras, rac

imas niSnavs, rom yoveli calkeuli operacia tardeba ormagi CaweriswesiT, anu: operacia aisaxeba erTi angariSis kreditSi da imavdroulad

meore angariSis debetSi. eqsportis SemTxvevaSi operaciis ekonomikuri

interpretacia aseTia: imdenad, ramdenadac gayiduli saqonlis nacvlad

qveyana Rebulobs ucxour valutas, aucilebelia orive nakadis asaxva

sagadasaxdelo balansSi. mocemuli forma iZleva sagadasaxdelo balansis

aqtiurobis an pasiurobis gamovlenis SesaZleblobas. aqtiuria is, Tu

qveynis Semosavlebi aWarbebs gadasaxdelebs, xolo pasiuria _ Tu

gadasaxdelebi sxva qveynebis mimarT aWarbebs sxva qveynebidan miRebul

Semosavlebs. pasiuri balansis SemTxvevaSi izrdeba sagareo vali, ecema

erovnuli valutis kursi, mcirdeba saerTaSoriso savaluto rezervebis

moculoba da a. S. amitom sagadasaxdelo balansis wonasworobis miRweva

qveynis ekonomikisa da safinanso mdgomareobis gajansaRebis erT-erTi

mniSvnelovani winapirobaa.



304

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