Fertilizer Price and Demand Outlook 2014 and Beyond

7/22/2019 Fertilizer Price and Demand Outlook 2014 and Beyond

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Fertilizer price and demand outlook 2014 and beyondJSGCL Research

Added byAyaz Ahmedon January 30, 2014

Saved underFERTILIZER SECTOR,HEADLINES

Tags:JS Global Capital

Fertilizer price and demand outlook 2014 and beyond JSGCL Research

By: Naveed Tehsin,

[email protected]

+ 9221 111-574-111Ext: 3100

JS Global Capital Limited

As per National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC), December 2013 urea offtake clocked in at 674k tons, down -

29%YoY due to higher base of last year. In 2013 urea offtake clocked in at 5.9mn tons (+13%YoY).

Meanwhile DAP offtake clocked in higher at 173k tons (+36%YoY) in December 2013 which took 2013 DAP offtake to

1.6mn tons (+37%YoY).

Sharp decline in international DAP prices also induced farmers into buying DAP. International DAP prices touched

US$350/ton in November 2013 (from a high of US$508/ton in April 2013) and resulted in 9% reduction in domestic DAP

prices over 4Q2013 (-12%YoY).

We believe 2014 urea demand will normalize at ~5.8mn tons with domestic production at 4.9mn tons (assuming Engro

receives Guddu gas till March 2014). If Engro receives Guddu gas till June 2014 (as rumors suggest) domestic production

can jump to 5.1mn tons, suggesting ~0.7mn tons of urea import for 2014 vs. 1.0mn tons import in 2013.

For 2014, we believe local producers look all set to sell whatever they produce with limited volume competition from

imports. Meanwhile recent spike in international urea prices (+43% since September 2013) would widen subsidy on

fresh imported urea to Rs1,000/bag suggesting some room for local producers to gradually raise prices inline with cost

push.

2013 Offtake: Urea (+13%YoY) and DAP (37%YoY)

As per National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC), urea offtake for December 2013 has clocked in at 674k tons i.e.down -29%YoY due to higher base of last year. Recall that in December 2012, 1) price incentive provided by local urea

producers to match the price of the imported (subsidized) urea, and 2) the announcement of 14% higher wheat support

price, induced buying towards the end of year. Note that December 2013 urea offtake has meanwhile remained on the

higher side compared to 2013 monthly average of 491k tons. Overall in 2013, urea offtake clocked in at 5.9mn tons

(+13%YoY). As far as DAP offtake is concerned, the same clocked in 36%YoY higher at 173k tons in December 2013 which

lifted overall 2013 DAP offtake to 1.6mn (+37%YoY). The demand for fertilizer in last two months of 2013 increased

significantly owing to pre-buying by farmers/dealers in anticipation of urea price increase due to predicted gas price

hikes.
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Lower DAP price and constant wheat support price

The govt. has decided not to raise FY14 wheat support price which stands at Rs1,200/maund and is almost in line with

international wheat prices which are hovering around ~US$290/ton compared to the support price of US$300/ton.

Meanwhile, sharp decline in international DAP prices also induced farmers into buying DAP in late 2013. International

DAP prices touched US$350/ton in November 2013 (from a high of US$508/ton in April 2013) and resulted in 9%

reduction in domestic DAP prices over 4Q2013 (-12%YoY). Obviously, there are other factor input costs that have a say in

the farmers nutrient use decision but fertilizer input costs play a major role where we estimate nutrient cost at ~25% of

the total cost of crop production and ~40% of variable cost of production.

2014 urea imports likely be lower by 30%

In 2013, domestic urea production stood at 4.8mn (+16%YoY) primarily attributable to enhanced production from Engro

at 1.6mn (+66%YoY), where 1) operating the more efficient Enven plant on Mari, and 2) additional gas diverted from

Guddu resulted in both of Engros plants being operational for part of the year. Going forward in 2014, we believe urea

demand will normalize at ~5.8mn tons, where domestic production is likely to clock in at 4.9mn tons (including the

impact of Engro receiving Guddu gas to till March 2014). Note that if Engro receives Guddu gas till the end of 1H2013 (as

market rumors suggest) domestic production can jump to 5.1mn tons, suggesting ~0.7mn tons of urea import for 2014

vs. 1.0mn tons import in 2013. Meanwhile, we anticipate that revalidation of the GSA pertaining to Kunnar Pasaki Deep

(KPD) and start of gas flow from there will narrow down this gap to minimal from 2015 onwards. Moreover, thegovernment has recently decided in principle to wind-up NFML and distribute imported urea through local producers in

accordance with their share in total production. This along with price matching of imported and locally produced urea is

likely to 1) provide limited downside to current urea prices as Engro may not reduce prices further post allocation of

concessionary gas and (3) lower incentive for dealers to opt for cheaper imports hence.

Imported and local urea price differential at Rs1,000/bag

For 2014, we believe local producers look all set to sell whatever they produce with limited volume competition from

imports. While the government has of late decided to equalize the prices of domestically produced and imported urea,

note that due to a recent run up in international urea price (currently ~US$400/ton FOB and up by a sharp 45% vs. the

low of US$280/ton in September 2013), government subsidy on imported urea should expand to ~Rs1,000/bag on freshimports. This in our view creates a better opportunity for local producers to gradually pass through incremental gas cost

impact to farmers. Key risk, in our view, is a sharp reversal in the trend of international urea prices.

ISLAMABAD: Minister for Water and Power Khawaja Asif said on Thursday that supply of 500 million cubic feet of

gas per day to the CNG sector and subsidised gas to the fertiliser industry would not be allowed to continue.

Speaking at a conference on power sector reforms, he said the supply of gas to the CNG and fertiliser sectors at the

existing rates were unfair and simply unacceptable.

The minister said the energy crisis would not end in days and months; it would take two to three years. He said the

government had prepared a comprehensive plan to cope with the energy crisis. It would be announced after

approval by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

Mr Asif said that shortage of water was emerging as a bigger challenge than loadshedding, adding that construction

of some dams had either been politicised or deferred for vested interests. He alleged that the Musharraf regime had

ignored development of water storage capacity in the country.


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He said that despite capital injections, the country had sustained more than Rs1 trillion losses because of power crisis

over the past five years. He said loadshedding could not be ended in days or months, but promised that the situation

would get better in future.

The minister said the government had decided to repair and upgrade a number of power plants currently lying non-

functional or operating below capacity to improve electricity supply. The current shortfall of 4,000 to 5,000MW will

soon be brought down to a reasonable level.

Mr Asif said distribution companies had been asked to strictly follow the loadshedding schedule and reduce outages

with improved management of available resources. The power shortage has become a matter of life and death for

us and we will resolve it as a challenge.

The minister said the country had been losing over Rs113 billion annually for eight years mainly because of the

criminal delay in completion of the Nandipur power project. Without naming anyone, he said Rs100 million had

been taken as bribe for the project.

The purchase of expensive electricity from independent power producers kept on increasing electricity rates, he said,

adding that the biggest challenge for the government was to provide electricity at affordable rates.

He said annual corruption in the power sector had reached Rs207bn which was an alarming sign for the government.

He said the official figures of 22 per cent line losses were highly fudged. It has been observed that chairmen of the

boards of directors of distribution companies were getting uninterrupted electricity supply for their factories.

Better farm economics prompted sales volume during Jan14 Global Research

Added byAyaz Ahmedon March 3, 2014


Tags:Global Securities Pakistan Ltd.

Better farm economics prompted sales volume during Jan14 Global Research

By: Imran Ahmed Patel,

[email protected]

(+92.21.3245.7543)

Global Securities Pakistan Ltd

According to data released by National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC), total urea off-take (including domestic

and imported urea) registered a double-digit growth of 20% YoY to 619k MT during Jan14, against 517k MT urea sold

during same period last year as better farm economics kept buying sentiment of farmers upbeat. On a sequential basis

total off-take declined by 8% during Jan14, compared to 674k MT urea sold during Dec13 with the decline primarily

attributed to pre-buying of urea in 4Q CY13 on the anticipation of increase in the urea prices in CY14.
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Urea production clocked in at 399k MT during Jan14, increasing by 18% YoY ( -5% MoM) compared to 339k MT urea

produced during same period last year because of higher availability of gas to EFERTs plant, which contributed 164k MT

(+62% YoY) to total urea production during Jan14.

MTJan13 Jan14 D Dec13 Jan14 D

UreaEFERT

122,276 174,307 43% 157,680 174,307 11%

FATIMA14,408 25,356 76% 32,565 25,356 -22%

FFBL4,770 510 -89% 17,860 510 -97%

FFC211,394 193,108 -9% 215,618 193,108 -10%

NFML -Imported158,237 221,760 40% 203,406 221,760 9%

Others -Domestic6,223 4,109 -34% 46,876 4,109 -91%

TOTAL517,308 619,150 20% 674,005 619,150 -8%

Source: National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC)

Company-wise urea off-take data shows that EFERT and FATIMA both experienced an improvement in sales by 43% YoY

to 174k MT and 76% YoY to 25k MT, respectively. Moreover, NFML urea sales also posted a growth of 40% YoY to 221k

MT, due to timely arrival of imported urea in the domestic market. Conversely, FFCs urea sales saw a decline of 9% YoY

to 193k MT.

Gas curtailment dented DAP production in Jan14

DAP off-take during Jan14 witnessed a decline of 49% YoY (-84% MoM) to 27k MT, compared to 53k MT in Jan13

because of its lower application during post-sowing period. As far as DAP production is concerned, DAP production

remains on the lower side at 3k MT during Jan14, down by 94% YoY (-95% MoM) against same period last year with the

decline because of gas curtailment on SSGC network due to winters. Consequently, FFBLs DAP production declined

significantly to 3k MT (-94% YoY) during the period.

MTJan13 Jan14 D Dec13 Jan14 D

DAPEFERT- Imported

0 5,975 n.m 36,728 5,975 -84%

FFBL32,461 12,360 -62% 64,298 12,360 -81%

FFC- Imported160 627 292% 27,238 627 -98%

Others -Imported20,722 8,014 -61% 44,253 8,014 -82%

TOTAL53,343 26,976 -49% 172,517 26,976 -84%


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Source: National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC)

DAP prices surged by ~PKR 200/bag in local market

Industry rumors suggest that local DAP prices have risen by PKR 200/bag since Jan114 (~USD 33/MT) to PKR 3,630/bag.

A key driver in this price increase has been strong demand from major markets to meet spring demand, and a tight

supply of phosphate rock from Morocco because of stormy weather in Mediterranean. However, the recent uptick in

phos-acid prices by USD 70/MT will largely off-set the entire benefit of the price increase.

Earlier during the year, international DAP prices had declined to USD 340/MT because of lower international demand

from India. Recently, however, international DAP prices have rebounded to USD 478/MT as of Feb 2814, likely

supported by the seasonal uptick in DAP demand and tight supply of phosphate rock from Morocco. This recent increase

in international DAP prices will increase the landed price of DAP to ~PKR 3,350/bag, offering marginal relief to FFBL. In

spite of this increase, local DAP still trades at a premium to international DAP; therefore, the company will still be unable

to pass the impact of rising gas prices caused by the GIDC hike. As a result, we estimate the companys primary margins

to average ~USD 250/MT and anticipate FFBLs earnings to decline by 14% YoY to PKR 4,802mn (EPS: PKR 5.14) during

CY14.

Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited DAP primary margins jump by 16%AHL Research

Added byAyaz Ahmedon February 28, 2014


Tags:Global Securities Pakistan Ltd.

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Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited DAP primary margins jump by 16% AHL Research

By: Tahir Abbas,

[email protected]

+92-21-32462589

Arif Habib Limited

Phosphoric acid contract price for Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim (FFBL) was settled at USD 680/ton for 1QCY14, up 11% QoQ

while still down 12% YoY. Accordingly FFBL has increased DAP prices by PKR 210/bag to maintain its primary margins for
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DAP. We estimate the primary margin of DAP to stand at USD 267/ton in 1QCY14. We maintain our likeness towards the

company as primary margins of DAP is expected to remain lucrative during CY14. Our DCF based June-14 price objective

works out to be PKR 52/share implying an upside potential of 20% from current levels. We thus maintain our BUY

recommendation for the stock.

DAP prices adjusted upward to maintain primary margins

International phosphoric acid prices have been spiraling downwards since Jul-12 from USD 1080/ton to USD 610/ton in

4QCY13. However, with commencement of CY14, this downward trajectory rebounds with upward trend. As per ourindustry sources, FFBL increased DAP prices by PKR 210/bag during Feb-14. The increase in DAP prices was on account of

11% QoQ jump in phos-acid prices to USD 680/ton. This will eventually help FFBL to manage its DAP primary margins,

which previously clocked in at USD 230/ton for Jan-14 down 10% QoQ when compared with 4QCY14 margins of USD

257/ton. Following this increase DAP primary margins jumped to USD 267/ton up 4% QoQ.

DAP is expected to be in limelight going forward

We expect that company would focus more on DAP due to its better margins. The company has operated its DAP plant

at 114% utilization level in CY13 amid better demand and margins; the same strategy is expected for CY14.

Gas curtailment updates

DAP plant was shut down for 47 days in 1QCY14 from 7-Jan-14 to 22-Feb-14. On the other hand urea plant is expected

to be operational in Mar-14. We expect gas curtailment to remain at 45% during the year. However, 1Q gas curtailment

was usual and incorporated in our models.

Key investments updates

In accordance with the group policy, FFBL is also diversifying its investments. The wind power projects are expected to

come online by 3QCY14 and 4QCY14. As far as meat business is concerned, it is expected to be operational by 2QCY15

This would eventually add further value going forward.

Fertilizer firms profit increases by 59pc

November 02, 2013

SALMAN ABDUHU

0
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LAHORE - After witnessing a decline of 33 per cent in profitability in 2012 due to gas curtailment, Pakistans fertilizer

sector has experienced a reversal in fortunes, as fertilizer sector posted profit growth of 59 per cent in 9M2013 mainly

on the back of increased off-take. This was evident by urea sales growth of 29 per cent to 3.5 million tons in 9M2013 by

local producers. The cumulative profit of major five companies, representing 95 per cent of total local fertilizer offtake

stood at Rs27 billion in 9M2013 versusRs17 billion in the same period last year

In 9M2013, fertilizer sector posted healthy revenue of Rs148 billion as against Rs121 billion in the same period last year

depicting growth of 23 per cent. The vital growth driver of sample companies remained 25 per cent volumetric increase

in urea sales, in comparison to this industry off-take (including imported) grew by 14 per cent. Another thing that led to

better local sales is absence of NFML under-cutting local urea manufactueres. During same period previous year NFML

was selling its urea at a discount of Rs150-200/bag as compared to local urea

Fertilizer industry expert Asad Siddiqui observed in a report that profitability of the sector was supported by better gross

margins that improved by 3pps to 43 per cent in 9M2013 as against 40 per cent in the same period last year. Excluding

Engro Fertilizers, gross margins of the sector inched up by mere 40bps, which shows that prime impetus to the gross

margins was provided by robust gross profitability of Engro Fertilizers

Furthermore, declining interest rate also bode well for sectors profitability as sector financial charges declined by 18pc

to Rs12.6b versus Rs15.4b in the same period last year. Reduction in financial charges coupled with follow through

impact of topline growth has strengthened sectors interest coverage ratio which has increased to 4.1x in 9M2013. This

resulted in the sector to posting profit growth of 59pc 9M2013. This growth excluding Engro Fertilizers was 19pc

Engro Fertilizers was the star performer of fertilizer sector as revenue grew by 78 per cent to Rs34 billion in 9M2013


8/16

This was achieved mainly due to company operating its more efficient Enven plant throughout 9M2013 and temporary

allocation of Guddu gas enabling it to run both its plants in 3Q2013. As a result improvement in urea sales by 80 per cent

in 9M2013 was witnessed. Engro Fertilizers have relatively high financial leverage amongst fertilizer sector companies.

As a result 78 per cent increase in revenue turned around its bottom line into profit of Rs3.2 billion in 9M2013 from loss

of Rs3 billion in the same period last year.

New formula to produce fertilizer from local coal

September 05, 2013

USMAN CHEEMA

0

ISLAMABAD - Ministry of Science and Technology has come up with a formula to produce fertilizer from local coal that

will cost only Rs 600 per 50 kg bag as compared to the imported DAP fertilizer that is sold at Rs 4000 per bag in the

market.

Secretary Ministry of Science and Technology Kamran Ali Qureshi while talking to TheNation said that PCSIR, an

institution located in Karachi working under the ministry, has performed multiple experiments on coal to fertilizer

project and finally has claimed that it is successful thus making the country able to produce local DAP fertilizer that

mostly is imported from other countries

Kamran Qureshi told that Minister for Science and Technology and he himself visited PCSIR office in Karachi and
http://www.nation.com.pk/Reporter/usman-cheemahttp://www.nation.com.pk/Reporter/usman-cheemahttp://www.nation.com.pk/business/05-Sep-2013/new-formula-to-produce-fertilizer-from-local-coal#disqus_threadhttp://www.nation.com.pk/business/05-Sep-2013/new-formula-to-produce-fertilizer-from-local-coal#disqus_threadhttp://www.nation.com.pk/business/05-Sep-2013/new-formula-to-produce-fertilizer-from-local-coal#disqus_threadhttp://www.nation.com.pk/Reporter/usman-cheema


9/16

witnessed the development made by the organisation. PCSIR claims that it is providing the fertilizer to farmers on

experimental basis and the results are wonderful and no adverse affect has been reported yet. It is also pertinent to

mention here that coal to fertilizer formula already exist in the world but in Pakistan it has been done for the very first

time. The formulas mostly are owned by the companies so whoever wants to do that have to conduct experiments on its

own.

PCSIR also has claimed in front of Secretary Science and Technology and Minister that the demand for the newly

developed fertilizer is increasing due to its good results. Kamran Qureshi whereas said that Ministry officially did not

release such information earlier because it did not want to announce it prematurely and still want to conduct more

experiment before launching the formula for sale to private companies

Responding to a question, Secretary said that ministry cannot make the formula public as it has to generate its income

through such inventions and most probably it will give the formula to some company that could be able to pay good

royalty amount to the government. In response to the question that is it possible that after transfer of formula to private

company the price will not be Rs 600 for the bag? Secretary said that there is more possibility that the price will even

decrease by the claimed figure as the company would be able to produce fertilizer on large scale that will help reduce its

cost.

Fertilizer sector invested $2.3 billion in 4 years

May 16, 2013

OUR STAFF REPORTER
http://www.nation.com.pk/Reporter/our-staff-reporterhttp://www.nation.com.pk/Reporter/our-staff-reporterhttp://www.nation.com.pk/Reporter/our-staff-reporter


10/16

LAHORE - Fertilizer sector has invested $2.3 billion in last 4 years making Pakistan self-sufficient in urea production and

earned huge profit despite gas supply suspension for a long time

Industry circles said that with consistent gas supply to urea plants, the new government of the PML-N can ensure timely

availability of this key farm input to farmers at the cost effective rates

It is to be noted that the fertilizer industry has remained the best performer at the capital market, as it has surpassed al

sectors in terms of paying return on equity to its shareholders

Industry circles were of the view that by not producing urea locally, country has to import urea which is the most

expensive form of energy on MMBTU basis, costing around $23/MMBTU, whereas RFO and LNG would be 30-50pc less

expensive than urea on a MMBTU basis

They said that Pakistan cannot afford to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on urea import and they are hopeful that

PML-N government would ensure judicious distribution of gas amongst all the sectors of economy

They said that all other industries have alternative fuel options except fertilizer sector that uses gas as raw material to

produce the key farm input urea for the farmers that ensure food security of the masses as well as provide raw materia

to important industries like textile and food processing. SNGPL based four plants faced more than 300 days of gas

curtailment in year 2012. If gas is discontinued to fertilizer plants in 2013, Pakistan would have to import 1 million tons

of urea which can cost national exchequer $450 million dollars and a subsidy of Rs21 billion to match the imported urea

price to domestic urea prices. They said that Fertilizer sector is not burning the gas to run the plants, it offers maximum

value addition by converting the raw gas into precious urea grains and country hugely benefits from the fertilizer

industry.


11/16

Meanwhile, Fertiliser Manufacturers Pakistan Advisory Council (FMPAC) has congratulated PMLN and its leadership

Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif and Mian Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif for securing the majority in election and hoped

that PML-N Government would revive the agriculture economy of the country to ensure farmers well being and food

security of 190 million countrymen

Pakistan despite being an agriculture economy, agriculture sector remained the worst hit and most neglected area of

economy in last few years. With the PML-N government in the power, we are confident that Mian Nawaz Sharif would

ensure early revival of the agriculture sector through better and long-term policies

He said that PML-N leadership fully understands the importance of agriculture sector for the quick revival of the

economy and fertilizer sector being an integral part of agriculture economy would be given due importance while

allocating the precious gas resources.

Fertiliser the goldmine of Pakistan

Posted By Editor On August 26th, 2013 04:37 PM |Article And Views,Featured

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By Waheed Hamid

August 08, 2013 Published in Business Recorder

http://www.brecorder.com/articles-a-letters/187:articles/1219029:fertiliser-the-goldmine/

Pakistan is an agricultural country with approximately 70 percent of its population living in the villages. The major source

of their livelihood is agriculture. Agriculture employed 66 percent of the total workforce in 1950-51 but by 1999-2000,

this figure dropped to 47.3 percent and this trend continues. This shows that people are now not interested in farming

This decline indicates decreasing incentives by the government to the agriculture sector.

Even today when Pakistan faces acute economic crisis, its domestic food produce is the mainstay of economic surviva

strategy. The proposed agreement with Iran of barter of electricity with Pakistani wheat and rice is a perfect example

This productive sector of Pakistan now faces the challenge of increasing population, expanding cities andindustrialisation spread out across productive land, reducing the agricultural land and forcing an increase in per acre

yield.

The demand of increase in per acre production therefore becomes an important facet of agriculture in Pakistan which

cannot be met without availability of cheap Fertiliser to farmers along with crop rotation techniques and other

measures. Wheat production in Pakistan slid to 23.3 million tons in 2012-13, the lowest in four years and down from 25

million tons a year ago. Annual wheat demand in Pakistan is 26 million tons, which the country has not been able to

achieve for quite some time, and this year experts estimate that total production will be around 23 million tons, which is

three million short of current requirements and may hamper our barter agreement for electricity with Iran. Fertilise
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prices and its availability play a huge role in constraining the use of fertiliser by small farmers which directly effects

overall agri produce. In this backdrop, even working of options for preference of expensive import of fertiliser over

domestic subsidy and facilitating the domestic producers under pretext of so called gas shortage is quite un-

understandable phenomenon. The experts say that gas shortage is a misperceived slogan coined by the interested party

to cover the unprofessional wastage and theft in the CNG and IPP sectors.

The fertiliser sector in Pakistan has not been able to get its due share in long term government policies . The trust

reposed in Fertiliser sector by a government at one time has produced results. The private sector has come up with hugeinvestment and its present infrastructure not only ensures sufficient cheap and good quality fertiliser for domestic use

but has the potential to earn foreign exchange.

Pakistan can now produces about 7 million tons of urea per year which is more than 4% of the worlds urea

(Nitrogenous) output but produces much under its capacity due to cuts in gas, all of which is consumed locally. By late

2000s, the gas demand had increased significantly with increased uses of gas in commercial and industrial activities. The

major contributors are the transportation and power segments, which converted to gas from oil. In the current scenario

there has to be gas loadshedding to manage the gas supply to all the sectors.

Fertiliser, despite having priority allocation of gas (Natural Gas & Management Policy 2005), faced gas curtailment (up to

20%) for the first time in 2010 as gas was diverted to power plants. This limited gas supply to the fertiliser industry

threatens the productivity of the largest sector of the Pakistan agriculture. Presently domestically-produced urea

prices are ranging between Rs 1600-1700 per bag and in case of import they cost Rs 2400 to 2600 per bag. The figure

indicates that a subsidy of about Rs 700 .per bag is being passed by fertiliser sector to the farmers on the principles of

open market operations.

In the process of domestic produce the government saves investment on foreign exchange and gets tax which it charges

to domestic fertiliser industry. The tax paid by only one of the fertiliser producers Fauji Fertiliser Company in year 2012

was Rs 43.189 billion. However, rumours of further fertiliser gas cuts and doing away with the bulk purchase subsidy of

approx Rs 220 per bag presently with fertiliser producers is being viewed with concern in the sector.

The principle of progress demands that you put more efforts on successful ventures rather than reinforcing the failures

The government failures of not being able to providing basic needs like electricity to its people must be weighed in

comparison with the success of fertiliser sector in taking care of the food security for people of Pakistan. The important

point which fertiliser producers make is that where gas is a replaceable fuel for IPPs being cheap against petroleum for

fertiliser gas is feed which is processed to become urea. The experts consider fertiliser sector an efficient user with least

losses and theft, the total gas allocation is just 818 MMCFD but they hardly get 600 MMCFD through MARI and SSGC

network . The gas allocated at MARI Network is low MMBTU gas (inferior quality gas) which cannot be used for power

generation or domestic consumption; hence this low mmbtu gas field is being utilised by domestic fertiliser plants saving

it from being wasted. The fertiliser industry believes that using gas for producing urea is the most efficient and judicious

usage as fertiliser sector is not just burning the gas to run the plants alone, it offers maximum value-addition byconverting the raw gas into precious urea grains and the country hugely benefits from this substitution.

Having discussed above, the fertiliser sector still can play a role to help government come out of the present crisis but it

requires mutual understanding of the stakeholders. The progressing nations put emphasis on productivity. In

Bangladesh, the priority of power is first industry and then the domestic users. Where there is a need to check wastage

in all sectors involved in waste of gas, a serious working will prove that if gas is provided to fertiliser to its capacity it can

deliver. The export of fertiliser and its accumulated effects on agri produce will ensure sufficient budget support to the

government. A support much beyond the requirement for the purchase of alternate fuel for the IPPs.


13/16


14/16

mmcfd of feedstock gas from Reti Maru and Mari fields, whereas Sui pumps in 10-15 mmcfd. The company requires

another 35-40 mmcfd to find a permanent solution, for which it has engaged other fertilizer manufacturers.

What is still a mysterious variable is the price of the non-pipeline low btu gas supply. Some circles believe the

government would not be willing to offer it at the concessionary rate of $0.7/mmbtu, despite the companys

entitlement.

The consensus seems to be that this gas would be priced in the range of $5.5-6 per mmbtu, which is higher than the

current feedstock price. The primary margins in urea business have always been on the higher side (50-60 percent), andEngro would rather take the feedstock gas, even at a higher rate.

What makes the timing of the IPO offering just about perfect is the companys recent restructuring of its highly

leveraged balance sheet. Engro has managed to restructure a large part of nearly Rs60 billions debt on the fertilizer

book for another two and a half years. Improved cash flow resulting from both plants operating at a reasonably good

efficiency, Engro would find it easy to make interest payments along with retiring principal.

That said the investors will have to rely solely on capital gains for a while as dividend payments will be restricted under

the debt restructuring arrangement. Engro is banking on the seriousness that it finds in this government to address the

gas supply issue on permanent basis.

We are out of the woods-our cash flows are better and restructuring is done. It appears the government is serious to

find a permanent solution. There is at least clarity on the part of government. We are lucky to have fields close to us that

are low medium btu quality not affecting SNGPL, SSGC scheme of things, Rohail Mohammed, CEO Engro Fertilizer told

BR Research in a soon-to-be published interview.

The analyst community believes Engro Fertilizer offers substantial upside from the floor price of Rs20/share, but that is

based on the best case scenario where the company receives adequate gas supply. The downside remains the non-

availability of gas to both the plants simultaneously, in which case the IPO is a risky proposition according to a

research note by Top line Securities.

Should things turn ugly, in an unlikely scenario, Engro has the option to take its plants to countries like Yemen, Nigeria

and Mozambique, where gas is available at cheaper rates. One hopes such a situation never emerges, for the sake of thedomestic economy.

Engro seems to have timed the IPO offering just right but the one variable that will continue to dictate the stock price is

the supply of gas to its plants.

Distribution of urea through fertilizer companies: MoI&P decides to resist Dar's decision

February 13, 2014

MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN

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Ministry of Industries and Production (MoI&P) has reportedly decided to resist Finance

Minister's decision on the distribution of imported urea through local fertilizer companies, sources close to Secretary

MoI&P Shafqat Naghmi told Business Recorder. Presently imported urea is being distributed through National Fertilizer

Marketing Limited (NFML) and some senior officials of MoI&P and Lahore-based NFML are accused of corruption.

A few junior level officials have been suspended as an eyewash and no action has been taken against any accused

despite the passage of several months. Urea distribution mafia is said to have deep roots in the corridors of the MoI&P
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Economic Co-ordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, in one of its meetings presided over by the Finance Minister

Ishaq Dar took a serious note of massive corruption in NFML and decided to hand over the imported urea distribution

responsibility to the local urea manufacturers.

MoI&P argues that under the Rules of Business, 1973, the subject "standardisation and import of urea" has been placed

under the Ministry of National Food Security and Research while administrative control of National Fertilizer

Corporation (NFC) has been assigned to the MoI&P. The issue of import or any other activity with regard to fertilizer

cannot be segregated as NFC under the MoI&P is dealing with all its matters since long. However, there is an initiative

from the Finance Ministry to assign the subject of distribution of imported urea to the private fertilizer producers.

According to sources, MoI&P is opposed to the proposed initiative on the plea that any such arrangement will raise the

specter of a serious conflict of interest. At the same time, it will create a monopolistic situation and will invoke the

jurisdiction of Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP). Moreover, as per distribution of work issued by the Cabinet

Division, the MoI&P is responsible for: (i) keeping a watch from a national angle over general price trends and supply

position of essential commodities, price and distribution over time that may require to be managed through statutory

orders between the provinces; and (ii) administration of the essential commodities, price control, profiteering and

hoarding laws including distribution.

The sources further stated that fertilisers, especially urea falls within the category of essential commodity. The

government regulates the prices of essential commodities through demand/ supply chain management. The import of

deficient quantity of urea and its distribution in the market to end users enables the government its supply at an

affordable price. Resorting to the proposed arrangement will be detrimental to the interests of farmers in particular and

agriculture sector in general. By virtue of the proposed arrangement, the efforts of the government will be seriously

hampered to control black marketing of urea in the country.

Similarly, the proposed arrangement cannot ensure that the benefits of the subsidy are passed on to the target

beneficiaries. Rather, it will be beneficial to the domestic producers, who are already reaping huge benefits in the form

of subsidy on gas supplied to them. It will further incite them to lower production and resort to imports. The situation

will further worsen as most of the domestic units are highly inefficient in terms of input/output ratio, the sources

maintained.

"The issue of import or any other activity with regard to fertilizer cannot be segregated as NFC is dealing with all itsmatters since long, which is working under this Ministry. Therefore, the idea of transfer of FRC to the Ministry of NF&R

and import and distribution of fertilizer to the private producers does not seem to be justified," the sources continued.

MoI&P has been holding meetings of FRC successfully so far. Further, the Ministry of Planning, Development and

Reforms has prepared a comprehensive summary for ECC and forwarded to this Ministry for comments and this Ministry

will deal with the same under Rule 8(1) of the Rules of Business, 1973 accordingly. "It is advised that unless a fina

decision is taken by the Prime Minister under Rule 5(1) of the Rules of Business, 1973, we should pend the proposed

exercise by the TCP accordingly. Hence, this Ministry does not support the idea regarding transfer of Fertilizer Review

Committee (FRC) to the Ministry of National Food Security & Research as it is contrary to the Rules of Business, 1973,"

the sources quoted Secretary Industries as saying in his comments.

MoI&P maintains that after the 18th amendment in the Constitution, many Ministries/Divisions and its related subjects

including the MINFA stand devolved to the provinces and the idea that it should be re-grouped as it were dealt with by

the erstwhile MINFA, will be a constitutional violation. "Furthermore, this Ministry had been holding meetings of FRC

successfully. Therefore, this Ministry does not support the idea as seems contrary to the Rules of Business, 1973 and

also strike the basic provision of the Constitution of Pakistan, 1973," it further stated.

Fatima Fertilizer goes strong

April 26, 2013

BR Research

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Not being connected to the SNGPL network is a blessing for fertilizer manufactures in

Pakistan. Fatima Fertilizer, the countrys leading CAN and NP producer and a major urea manufacturer reaped the

benefits of comparatively better feedstock gas supply during the 1QCY13. This coupled with other favourable factors

helped Fatima Fertilizer quadruple its profits year-on-year.

Healthy top line growth came on the back of strong product sales as improved farmers economy and lower urea prices

created healthy demand.

During the quarter, local urea price stayed close to imported urea, which resulted in significantly higher sales. A very low

urea inventory level due to lower imports also ensured decent volumetric sales for local manufacturers.

The gross profit margins, however, dwindled significantly mainly on account of sharp reduction in urea prices. Rupee

depreciation against the greenback also played a role as Fatimas feedstock gas price is fixed at $0.7/mmbtu. That said,

higher volumetric sales more than made up for the loss in gross profit margins.

Lower interest rate scenario, repayment of around Rs 6 billion long-term debt and refinancing of Rs10 billion loan atlower mark-up all combined to slash Fatimas finance cost, making a healthy contribution towards its bottom line.

Fatimas CAN and NP fertilizer business has been performing exceptionally well. As the market expects an increase in

phosphate fertilizer off-take, presence of NP and CAN in Fatimas armory bodes well for its future.

What Fatimas strong performance also tells, is that if adequate gas is supplied to fertilizer plants, they can still make

healthy profits without raising product prices.
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Documents

Fertilizer Price and Demand Outlook 2014 and Beyond