Cereal production and N-Fertilizer demand analysis in The Greater Horn of Africa

and Egypt

A material balance based analysis

Shawel Betru, PhD candidate1 , Hiroyuki Kawashima, Associate Professor

1

1 International Environmental Economics, Global Agriculture, Graduate School of Agricultural and life

Sciences, The University of Tokyo, �

113-8657 Bunkyo ku Yayoi 1-1-1 Agri building 1, 3F, Rooms 301-3

2

Abstract

There is no civilization or nation that survived without sustenance of food supply. The

quantity and quality of food available and fair distribution among members in a house-

hold or a country is essential for its peaceful continuation. Meeting the food demand of

poor people predominantly in poor countries is one of the big challenges of our genera-

tion. The gloomy pictures of our inability to provide all the population with enough foods

are ameliorated by the past progresses in shrinking the size of ill-fed population on the

relative basis. The available foods in the world, if distributed equally, can provide per

capita food energy of 2800 kcal in the period of 2001- 2003, whereas the corresponding

figure was 2430 kcal in the period of 1969-1971. However, most poor countries get far

lower daily per capita calories than the average value. This study bases its investigation

on the notion that African countries have a comparative advantage and unfolding world

agricultural trade reality to pursuing food self / regional sufficiency. African countries

need to address the problem of food demand for their ever increasing population, whereas,

in many Asian and oil-producing countries, accelerated GDP per capita growth has re-

sulted in rapid nutritional transition to higher per capita food consumption. In the present

study, we analyzed cereal demand and supply in countries of the greater horn of Africa

(GHA) and Egypt. These countries account for 27 % and 33% of African population in

2005 and 2030, respectively. They have a great deal of interdependence in their use of the

Nile and many other trans-boundary rivers. Hence the socio-economic and biophysical

dynamics in one of the countries will affect those in the others. In this article, we pre-

sumed that the predominant factor to an increase in food production is availability and

application of plant nutrients as nitrogenous fertilizer. Moreover, we assumed that the

major driving force for the cereal demand will be population growth. Accordingly, a sys-

tems analysis model based on material balance was used to project the demand for cereal

production, yield improvement, land area planted to cereals, and the amount of nitrogen-

ous fertilizer needed to meet the total cereal demand up to 2030. The variables used were

cereal production per capita and cereal yield per land area. A baseline scenario was also

made through extension of the past trends. FAOSTAT and medium scenario of UN popu-

lation prospect data were used.

Key word: Nitrogenous-fertilizer, GHA, cereal

3

Introduction

There is no civilization or nation that survived without sustenance of food supply. David

Ricardo (1772-1823, cited in Ohmae 2005) pointed out the preeminence of food in socie-

ty by concluding: “To sustain life, food is necessary, and the demand for food must con-

tinue in all ages and in all countries.” King Solomon also concluded the inquiry of his

lifetime by saying “A man can do nothing better than to eat and drink and find satisfac-

tion in his work” (Ecclesiastes 2: 24).The quantity and quality of food available and fair

distribution among members in a household or a country is essential for its peaceful con-

tinuation. There are reports of people surviving for up to 40 days without food with sub-

stantial decrease in body weight and health impairment (Lieberson 2006). Nonetheless,

human body needs certain amount of food every day in order to sustain normal function-

ing of different organs regardless of whether he/she is engaged in light or heavy works.

This is called basal metabolic rate (BMR) (Smil 2000). BMR varies depending on age,

sex, body weight and so on. An average of 2,978 kcal and 2,018 kcal is needed for

healthy 25 year man and woman engaged in medium level activity respectively. This is

about 1.78 and 1.64 times of BMR respectively. This is the basis of determining whether

a person is undernourished or not. Analyses have been done for nutritional values of

commonly eaten food items so as determination of what quantity of which food is needed

to supply the required amount of energy and other nutrients. Smil (2000) and Dyson

(1996) agree in that a society that is able to supply the daily calorie requirement is unlike-

ly that other nutrients will be lacking. On top of this Smil (2000) argue it will be easier to

supply protein, vitamin and other nutrients once the calorie demand is met because the

demand for the later is in no more than 100 grams or less. The challenge of meeting food

demand of poor people predominantly in poor countries is to meet this basic energy re-

quirement.

Undoubtedly, meeting food demand of poor people predominantly in poor countries is

one of the big challenges of our generation (Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1997; Brown 2003).

Nonetheless, our inability to provide vast majority of these people with enough foods are

ameliorated by the progresses in the later half of last century in shrinking the size of ill-

fed population on relative basis (Cohen 1995, Lomborg 1998, Dyson 1997). Smil (2000)

meticulously weighed the arguments on both side of extremes on future prospect of food

supply in the world and drew a cautiously optimistic conclusion. Most authors agree,

though, majority of the poor countries get far lower daily per capita calories than the av-

erage value indicates.

The world has indeed enough food to feed its present population with predominately

grain oriented food. The available foods in the world, for example, can provide per capita

food energy of 2800 kcal in the period 2001 – 2003 (FAO 2005a) if distributed equally.

There has been a decline in total agricultural output in the world, however, Alexandratos

(1995) argued the decline in rate of global cereal production in 1980-1992 was primarily

due to demand oriented reduction in cereal production in the six major cereal exporting

countries: USA, Canada, European community (12 countries), Australia, Argentina and

Thailand. He cautioned, on contrary, against the drastic effect if the decline in the rate of

cereal production happens in the developing countries which heavily depend on agricul-

4

ture for their livelihood and economy, and if the decline is accompanied by rise in cereal

price. Hence, the problem is not with food availability in the world but the distribution

throughout the world and the entailment opportunity of the poor (Sen 1981). Moreover,

the poor developing countries have to reduce their dependence on imported food because

of market uncertainties and their vulnerability (Alexandratos 1995).

East African Sub Region

This study focuses on the greater horn of African sub-region (GHA) and Egypt (Map 1).

The following countries were considered as GHA in the study: Djibouti, Eritrea, Uganda,

Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Sudan with a total land area of 5.78 mill sq. km.

The total population of the region is estimated to be 248 million in 2007 (Fig. 1) with a

staggering annual growth of 2.81 % and account for 27.8 % and 21.4 % of SSA and Afri-

can population respectively. Egyptian population on the other hand is estimated to be 77

million in 2007 with 2.18% annual growth (UN population prospect 2005). These coun-

tries with the exception of Somalia and Djibouti share, the Nile River, a strategically im-

portant source of livelihood for their

population. Countries like Egypt and Su-

dan heavily depend on the river for agri-

culture and other utilities (Kindie 1999).

The state of agricultural development in

GHA region differs from that of Egypt in

many aspects. For example, the per capita

cereal production in 2005 in GHA was

118 kg/cap (a 37 % decline from 1961

level) while it was 276 kg/cap in Egypt (a

58 % rise from 1961 level). Egypt uses

very high per hectare fertilizer that is

largely produced locally, whereas, GHA

countries use one of the lowest per hectare

fertilizer in the world that is mostly im-

ported. Moreover, irrigation cropping is

predominant in Egypt, whereas, rain-fed

agriculture is the way of life in GHA.

However, present and future food produc-

tion of Egypt is inextricably tied with food

security in GHA.

Map 1 Greater Horn of African Region and Egypt

5

Fig 1. Population growth in GHA, 1961-2030

Data source: World Bank, World Development indicator 2004

Agriculture in GHAE

Agriculture in GHA is characterized by low factor input, rain fed (except Sudan) and

predominantly subsistence livelihood. Two of the three factors that determine agricultural

productions: fertilizer use and yield are in abysmal condition. The region has one of the

lowest fertilizer use (12 kg/ha N-Fertilizer in 2005) with an average cereal yield of 1.24

t/ha in 2005. About 80% of the population lives in rural areas where subsistent agricul-

ture is pervasive. Egypt, however, has one of the highest cereal yield in the world (7.24

t/ha in 2005) with around 385 kg/ ha of N-Fertilizer applied. In 2005 Less than 5 % of

crop land was irrigated in GHA while almost all of the crop lands in Egypt are irrigated.

Cereal harvesting land has grown by 1.6 percent in the period 1961-2005 in GHA while

in Egypt it grew only by 1 % in the same period. The improvement in total and per capita

cereal production in Egypt was attributed largely to cereal yield growth. The production

of cereals in GHA sub region has been growing by 2.2 % in 1961-2005 from about 10

million Mt to 25 million Mt while the population has grown by 2.81 % reducing per capi-

ta production by a total of 21 per cent. Cereal yield has been growing by an average of

about 12 kg/ yr (Fig.2) which is very low compared even with the SSA average of 20

kg/yr (Dyson 1996). If GHA countries have to provide reasonable amount of food to its

increasing population, it must break out of low-agriculture-trap and increase cereal yield

exponentially. The envisaged yield improvement certainly requires corresponding rate of

input supply. One of the critical inputs is synthetic fertilizer. While excessive use of syn-

thetic fertilizers is deleterious to the environment, total dependence on the natural regene-

ration capacity of the soil to grow sufficient food for present and future population of

GHA countries is impractical and worse to the soils as the per area fertilizer use is one of

the least in the world. Correlation between global fertilizer application and food produc-

tion is unmistakably shows without application of synthetic fertilizer increasing crop

yield above certain level is unachievable. Dyson (1996) plainly states the one major fac-

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Population (in million)

6

tor for the insignificant per hectare fertilizer application in SSA countries is unappealing

market for agricultural products rather than environmental considerations. It is uncon-

tested that the tropical soils in the region need special consideration before application of

any kind of fertilizers, however, it is naive to expect a booming production by merely in-

creasing supply of synthetic fertilizer to provide enough food for an ever increasing

population which is already undernourished.

Cereals are not the only stay of livelihood in GHA. Different countries have different de-

pendence on cereals. Many African countries get their share of calories from varies foods

types beside cereals. As noted on Smil (2000) bush meats, forest food and home garden

produce constitute significant proportion of daily calories in poor countries particularly in

Africa. Those countries in the region which largely depend on local supply for food

showed higher dependence on roots and tubers (RAT). RAT, for example, constitute

53 % and 27 % of staple food in Uganda and Tanzania respectively. Ethiopia and Kenya

also draw sizeable proportion of their food energy from RAT. In contrary, countries like

Sudan that depend heavily on irrigation consume more cereals and less RATs. Djibouti

and Eritrea also have less dependence on RAT as they largely depend on food import,

often through aid, to supply their relatively small population. In spite of its considerable

proportion in the nutrition of GHA, RATs contribute less in terms absolute quantity of

food energy and protein. Moreover, as urbanization progresses in these countries and in-

come per capita rises people will eventually prefer cereals instead of RAT and finally

demand more livestock products for high quality protein. Nonetheless, the prospect of

dietary transition for GHA countries to higher livestock products in the project period

looks less likely with the present per capita income and its projection. Therefore, the

present analysis focuses on cereal demand and supply as a major indicator of food securi-

ty in the projected period.

Fig 2. Cereal Yield growth trend in GHA, 1961-2005

Data Source: FAOSTAT

y = 5.279x - 9513.R² = 0.49

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1,955 1,960 1,965 1,970 1,975 1,980 1,985 1,990 1,995 2,000 2,005 2,010

Ce

rea

l Y

ield

[t/

ha

]

Cereal Yield growth in GHA, 1961-2005

7

Food and fertilizer demand projection

The food and fertilizer demand projection was made for the eight GHAE countries men-

tioned above. Three major scenarios were developed to estimate the amount of cereal

production and nitrogenous fertilizers needed in order to meet different levels of cereal

demand up to 2030 (Fig. 3). While, the first set of scenario assumes improvement in ce-

real yield, the second set of scenario assumes no yield improvement hence the demand is

expected to be met by expanding agricultural land at present yield level. Under both sce-

narios two levels of per capita production were taken: present level and 30% improve-

ment from 2005 level by 2030. The third set of scenarios called Business-As-Usual

(BAU) assumes continuation of the present trend. Accordingly, the required yield and the

demand for nitrogenous fertilizer were estimated for all scenarios.

Fig 3. Schematic representation of scenarios in cereal production

Food Demand

Food demand is not a static phenomenon that can easily be calculated by multiplying a

constant per capita consumption by the total population. A society’s nutritional behavior

changes with change in other social, cultural and economic realities. At the initial stage of

dietary transition people respond to food consumption for every gain of income as is

demonstrated by Engle’s law. The taste for higher quality nutrition will develop gradually

as the income rises. However, for GHA countries it is too early to make a dietary transi-

tion to livestock dominated nutrition. Hence, it will be more realistic to use the material

balance model of food production analysis.

GHA countries traditionally have less control over world cereal trade in the past and will

continue so as because the competition for available cereal in the world market is increas-

ing. In recent years cereal exporting countries are turning their production in to biofuel

putting pressure on the price of cereals for food and decreasing available food for grant or

aid. Hence, it will be wise to improve local food production potentials.

In this study the total cereal production demand was derived from population growth [2].

Dyson (1996) foresaw in the next two decades cereal demand will be influenced mainly

by population growth rather than dietary transition as a result of economic growth. In the

period under projection GHA will be at best where countries will struggle to feed their

growing population at present per capita production or certain improvement.

TCp = PC * P [2]

Where TCp = total cereal production

YIELD ↓\ PER CAPITA CEREAL→ IMPROVED (30%) CONSTANT

IMPROVED SC2 SC1

CONSTANT SC4 SC3

8

PC = per capita cereal production

P = total Population

The per capita cereal production rather than consumption was analyzed because in GHA

countries production and consumption are more or less similar. Most of the cereal pro-

duced is consumed as food rather than fed to livestocks. Moreover, the amount of food

aid is declining and is very small fraction of local production. Food aid also fluctuates

depending on draught and food emergency situation in each country.

Fertilizer Productivity

Plants require certain inputs in order to produce the phytomass and are eventually har-

vested in the form of crop which is determined by the crops harvesting index (HI). Plant

nutrients, water and land are the most important limiting resources for crop production. In

this paper, nitrogen fertilizer is considered to be the single most important factors in li-

miting crop yield under present crop management in the study region. This doesn’t mean

the availability of usable water is of marginal importance. However, increasing fertilizer

is governed by manageable factors than water use. Fertilizers could not produce the in-

tended yield improvement by their own rather they require corresponding increase in wa-

ter use. However, the assumption in this study is there is sufficient room to accommodate

improved yield at the present water use level by increasing fertilizer use.

The importance and inevitability of applying synthetic fertilizers in order to increase food

production is assumed in this paper. African agriculture is characterized by its “nutrient

mining” nature where meager fertilizer is applied for a disproportionate amount of crop

harvest. It has been using the smallest per hectare fertilizer in the world, averaging about

10 kg/ha/yr (Smil 2000) where the world average is more than 100 kg/ha (Frink et. al

1999). The negative balance of nutrient input-output is, therefore, met by unsustainably

mining the soils. Smil (2000) argue for the urgency of enhancing the amount of fertilizer

applied in SSA. Up on analysis of emerging issues in food policy in developing countries,

despite the urgency to reduce or welcome the declining application of fertilizers in the

developed world, Pinstrup-Andersen (2000) indicated countries with low fertilizer appli-

cation should increase application of fertilizers.

The amount of fertilizer needed to produce the projected crop can be estimated using dif-

ferent models. The largest proportion of fertilizer applied is nitrogen fertilizer in different

forms. Hence, we estimated the amount of nitrogenous fertilizer in the different scenarios.

In order to estimate the amount of N-Fertilizer needed we developed partial factor prod-

uctivity for N fertilizer (PFPN) of the world and GHA region. The PFPN developed for the

whole world was 17.5 kg kg-1 and for that of GHA was 28 kg kg

-1[1]. The PFPN for GHA

was higher because crop yield is at its minimum level that could be achieved without syn-

thetic fertilizers; hence, small increase in fertilizer application results in high yield. How-

ever, this crop yield response will decline as it goes higher. Therefore, the PFPN for the

world was used to estimate fertilizer demand up to 2030. This world PFPN is comparable

with yield response to fertilizer application observed at experimental stations in different

countries from FAO data and analytical result from literature (Cassman et al. 2002).

Y = 17.5 NF + 0.83* [1]

9

Where: Y is cereal yield expected in kg/ha

NF is Nitrogenous fertilizer applied in kg/ha

* This value varies for different countries

The model shows for every kg of N-fertilizer applied 17.5 kg of cereal yield increase can

be achieved. Moreover, with no fertilizer application, i.e. crops utilizing nitrogen in the

soil and fixed naturally, can produce 0.83 tons of cereals per hectare. However, this basic

yield was adjusted for countries with low cereal productivity like Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea,

Tanzania and Uganda iteratively.

Fig 4 Correlation between cereal yield and N-Fertilizer demand in EA, to 2030

Agricultural land

Africa is one of the continents with the potential to increase its agricultural land. Howev-

er, most of the unused lands are associated with some kind of use-constraints among

which shortage of water is prevalent. Shortage of water is chronic in GHA and so is the

use conflict over available water resource. Land degradation has been reducing signifi-

cant portion of cropping land every year because of long history of cultivation, topogra-

phy and seasonal torrential rainfall. If these countries are going to expand their agricul-

tural lands they will be forced to cut forests which are already disappearing. In Ethiopia,

for example, many forests in the south-western part of the country, where the remaining

lowland high forest remains, are cut for commercial tea and coffee plantations. Recent

news from Uganda also how the government is engaged to prioritize expanding commer-

cial agriculture over forest reserves by deciding to cut more than 7,000 hectares of forests

for sugar cane plantation (AFP 2007).

The harvesting land projected to meet the required demand for cereal production, if not

met by improving crop yield, was calculated using the yield in 2005 for each country [3].

y = 0.028x + 0.744

R² = 0.583

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

0.7 2.7 4.7 6.7 8.7 10.7 12.7 14.7

Ce

rea

l yie

ld [

t/h

a]

N-fertilizer applied [kg/ha]

10

HAt = TCp/Y0 [3]

Where: HAt = total harvested land

TCp = total cereal production

Y0 = cereal yield in 2005

Projection Results and Discussion

The total projected demand for cereals in GHA region in 2030 were 50.5 (SC2 and SC4),

39.6 (SC1 and SC3) and 32.6 million metric tones of cereals (Fig.5). These are 100%,

57% and 29% rise from the 2005 productions respectively. The 30% improvement in per

capita production, SC2 and SC4, only equals the 1961 level; however, the corresponding

total cereal production requirement is 436% higher than the production in 1961. This is

caused by the many-fold growth of population in the region. The Ethiopian cereal projec-

tion resulted in 19.3, 15.2 and 14.2 million Mt of cereals for Improved, Constant and

BAU per capita production scenarios respectively (Fig. 6). The respective changes from

2005 were 107%, 62% and 57%, however, as was the case for GHA, Improved scenario

could only bring back the 1961 level of production. In the case of Egypt the changes from

2005 is 90%, 47% and 46% for the corresponding scenarios. However, the per capita ce-

real production will double from that of the 1961 level in the Improved Per Capita scena-

rios. The required cereal yield to realize the Improved and BAU levels of production in

GHA was 1.96 and 1.56 t/ha/yr respectively. The Ethiopian cereal yield requirements are

2.57 and 2.02 t/ha/yr for Improved and BAU scenarios. Although, the Ethiopian projected

yield requirements were little higher than the weighted average of GHA, both projected

yield requirements are well below the world average of 3.3 t/ha/yr in 2004 (FAOSTAT

2005). Although, observing past cereal yield trends in these countries and the SSA aver-

age (around 1 t/ha) doesn’t give encouraging signs, separate trials proved the possibility

of significantly increasing cereal yield. For Example, a study conducted by the Ethiopian

MoA and researchers from Michigan State University revealed substantial improvement

in cereal yield beside economic viability of the investment thereof (Haward et. al 1999).

Egypt, in contrary, has already achieved high average cereal yield, 7.2 t/ha/yr in 2005.

This makes further yield improvement difficult to actualize. The Improved and BAU per

capita production projection for Egypt require 10.67 and 8.54 t/ha/yr respectively.

Achieving such a very high yield would be practically insurmountable.

The fertilizer input to achieve these yield levels requires considerable investment. The

GHA countries need a total nitrogenous fertilizers ranging from 0.4 to 2.1 million Mt per

year in 2030. Ethiopia, in its part, has to secure from 125 thousand to 750 thousand Mt of

nitrogenous fertilizers in order to supply its growing population. This is a 7-10 fold in-

crease in fertilizer use. These changes need revolutionizing the sector rather than gradual

improvement. Egypt on the other hand requires increasing its fertilizer use by half or

doubling its already very high use of nitrogenous fertilizers. It is already using 1.06 mil-

lion Mt of nitrogenous fertilizers. Egypt’s only constraint to increase fertilizer use are

other inputs such as water, agronomic limit of crop yield and environmental considera-

11

tions, while scarcity of fertilizer (apparently lack of capital to purchase fertilizer) is the

limiting productivity in the other GHA countries like Ethiopia.

Fig 5. Projected Cereal Demand in GHA, 2005 to 2030

Fig. 6 Ethiopia cereal production projection, 2005-2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

To

tal C

ere

al P

rod

uc

tio

n [

mil

l. t]

Constant Per Capita Improved Per Capita BAU

0

5

10

15

20

25

����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� �� ��� ���� ����To

tal

Ce

rea

l P

rod

uc

tio

n[m

illi

on

Mt]

BAU Improved Per Capita Constant Per Capita

12

Table 1. Projection of demand and agricultural imputes for East African countries

(Weighed average), Ethiopian and Egypt, up to 2030

East African Cereal Outlook

Scenarios

Harvested

Area[106 ha]

Production

[106 Mt]

Yield

[t/ha]

N-

Fertilizer

[106 Mt] Population[10

6]

Per caput

Prod[kg]

1961 11.7 9.4 0.83 0.03 69.1 134 2005 26.8 25.3 0.98 0.2 2.4 106

2030 (SC1) 26.8 39.6 1.54 1.5 381.1 133 2030 (SC2) 26.8 50.5 1.96 2.1 381.1 106

2030 (SC3) 41.2 39.6 0.98 0.37 381.1 133 2030 (SC4) 52.5 50.5 0.98 0.47 381.1 74

2030 (SC5) 40.3 32.6 0.83 0.44 381.1 86

Percent

Change (61/05) 131 168 18 627 247

-

21

Percent*

Change (05/30) 96 57 57 860 59 26

* These percent changes were calculated for SC4 for harvested land and SC1 for other

variables. Both scenarios assume the same per capita production as 2005. The

change will be higher for the 30% per capita production improvement

Ethiopia

1961 5.9 4.2 0.72 0.0002 25.5 165

2005 7.5 9.3 1.24 0.077 79.4 118

2030 (SC1) 7.5 19.3 2.57 0.745 129 150

2030 (SC2) 7.5 15.2 2.02 0.507 129 118

2030 (SC3) 12.2 19.3 1.24 0.126 129 150

2030 (SC4) 15.5 15.2 1.24 0.160 129 118

2030 (SC5) 12.3 14.2 1.15 0.133 129 120

Percent Change

(61/05) 28 122 74 38.6 212 -28

Percent*

Change (05/30) 107 107 107 555 62 27

Egypt

1961 1.7 5.0 2.91 0.2 28.5 175

2005 2.8 20.1 7.24 1,1 74 276

2030 (SC1) 2.8 29.6 10.67 1.4 107 276

2030 (SC2) 2.8 38.1 13.74 2.1 107 356

2030 (SC3) 4.1 29.6 7.24 1.9 107 276

2030 (SC4) 5.3 38.1 7.24 2.0 107 356

2030 (SC5) 3.4 29.2 8.54 1.7 107 273

Percent Change

(61/05) 61 301 149 457 159 58

Percent*

Change(05/30) 90 47 47 99 45 -

13

Policy implication for food security and regional collaboration

The objective of this analysis is not to predict which scenario will happen but to analyze

the possible trajectories these countries could possibly go through with the corresponding

assumptions and what it takes to supply the food demand of their future population.

Increasing the average cereal yield of GHA countries to 1.5 and 2.1 t/ha is theoretically

and practically possible in both improved and BAU per capita cereal production. Since

most of these countries have very low cereal yield at the base year, 2005, the yield re-

sponse will be higher for small increase in fertilizer. The amount of total increase in ferti-

lizer for the 25 projected years appear staggering for GHA countries, nonetheless, it will

still be modest on per capita or per hectare bases. Nitrogenous fertilizer production is

high energy consuming. Nevertheless, it doesn’t need endowment of special mineral ore.

GHA countries need to multiply the effort towards locally producing large share of their

fertilizer requirement at least nitrogenous fertilizers. They can coordinate their collabora-

tion not only in terms of water use but also production and trade for this essential input.

Egypt has stretched its agricultural productivity potential and locks itself in a situation

where its population depends on imported cereals from western countries. The future is

going to be by far challenging for Egypt as many counties joined the competition for

more cereal import market with better buying power and larger population like China

(Brown 2003). Eventually, Egypt will mutually benefit from integrating its agricultural

policies with the GHA and other regional countries. Countries like Djibouti, Eritrea and

Somalia could also benefit from better performing agricultural production and trade in

GHA because they have relatively small population and lower agricultural production.

Table 4. Comparison of Land uses and harvesting area demand in 2030

Countries HA demand

a

2030 [106 ha]

Arable b

land [106 ha] Pasture land

a

[106 ha]

Forest

landa[10

6 ha] HA2030/AL

Sudan 16.6 16.2 112.0 61.0 1.02

Ethiopia 12.2 10.0 20.0 4.4 1.22

Uganda 2.3 5.1 5.1 4.1 0.45

Kenya 3.8 4.5 21.3 17.1 0.83

Tanzania 5.2 4.0 43.0 38.7 1.30 a harvesting area was projected for SC3 where per capita cereal production and yield is fixed at 2005 level

b Land use data for 2000 is taken. The data should be taken with caveat because this number will change

over the projection period

The projection result of harvesting land expansion shows GHA countries will exhaust

their available arable land to supply their growing population with per capita production

and cereal yield level in 2005(Table 4). If these countries want to improve the present per

capita production they have either to improve the yield or have to considerably increase

harvesting land. Failure to improve cereal yield will badly affect the natural environment

by expanding crop lands in to natural forests. Considering the very low cropping intensity

14

(CI) in the region, i.e. average of 0.5, they can readily increase their production by in-

creasing CI. However, increasing CI requires irrigation or other source of water. We

know that water is a critical resource in this part of SSA. Most of these countries have per

capita available fresh water near or less than 1700 m2 (WRI 2006) decreasing every year

as population rises. Water remains the driving force for most of the cooperation or con-

flict for the future. Research, open public dialogue and genuine collaboration will results

in better use of resources in the region.

15

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