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Natural Gas Outlook John Harpole Founder and Owner Mercator Energy

A Perspective on Energy Policy - Fertilizer Industry Round ... FIRT FOTC - Natural Gas Outlook... · The Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference. Jacksonville, FL. November 11,

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  • Natural Gas Outlook

    John HarpoleFounder and Owner

    Mercator Energy

  • The End of Scarcity?

    Natural Gas Outlook

    By:John Harpole

    Presentation to:The Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference

    Jacksonville, FL

    November 11, 2015

  • Conclusions from November 20, 2013

    • U.S. continues to produce more gas, shale gas revolution was too successful, end-users will benefit

    • During the next 3 years, supply will likely exceed demand

    • Prices will remain in the $3.50 to $4.75 range, with short period above and below that band during adjustments

    • Long term prices depend on demand growth. Without demand growth, supply will continue to be long and prices relatively low.

    • A significant demand response can’t occur for at least 3-5 years

    3

  • 4

  • The Big Question• What issues will have the greatest impact

    on North American natural gas prices in the next 5 years?

    5

  • The Big Three Issues to Watch

    1. Global Oil Price Recovery2. Marcellus and Utica Shale Production3. U.S. LNG Exports

    6

  • 1. Global Oil Price Recovery

    7

    The Big Three Issues to Watch

  • What Happened?

    • Thanks to American ingenuity and private property ownership of minerals, the world should/will no longer live under the threat of energy insecurity.

    • Energy once scarce, is now super-abundant and that reality will continue to change the world as transportation issues are remedied.

    8

  • Traditional Wells Horizontal Drilling

    Horizontal Drilling

    9Source: “The natural gas revolution and energy self-reliance in North America,” Don McClure, Encana, March 26, 2013

  • 10

    Hydraulic FracturingPumping fluid under high pressure to fracture formation

    Hydraulic Fractures

    Creates fracture “highway” for gas to be rapidly produced from formation

    10Source: “The natural gas revolution and energy self-reliance in North America,” Don McClure, Encana, March 26, 2013

  • Fracturing Application Exploded

    Source: Chris Wright, Liberty Resources Tuesday Lunch Club Presentation, 3/5/13

    12

  • 10-fold growth in 10 years

    Source: Chris Wright, Liberty Resources Tuesday Lunch Club Presentation, 3/5/13

    13

  • Source: “Oil and Natural Gas Booms on Private and State Lands,” Institute for Energy Research, April 14, 2015

    14

  • Source: “Oil and Natural Gas Booms on Private and State Lands,” Institute for Energy Research, April 14, 2015

    15

  • 16Source: Raymond James U.S. Research Energy Report, January 12, 2015

    The House of Saud’s Motivation

  • Major Takeaways• Crude oil prices are depressed due to the current global

    oversupply.

    • The crude oil oversupply will take betweeen1 to 3 years to correct, unless a major structural event takes supply out (OPEC, etc.)

    • Marginally economic areas across the U.S. will be negatively impacted. Geography and crude quality can tip the sales either way.

    • Natural gas drilling that was dependent on the value of natural gas liquids has been negatively affected

    • North American LNG exports could also be affected.

    17Source: The Outlook for U.S. Crude: Implications for Colorado, Bernadette Johnson, Ponderosa Advisors

  • The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources

    18

    Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through April 2014 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).

    IAEE International ConferenceJune 16, 2014 18

    Source: U.S. oil and natural gas outlook, Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator, Presentation to IAEE International Conference, June 16, 2014

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    U.S. tight oil productionmillion barrels of oil per day

    Monterey (CA)

    Austin Chalk (LA & TX)

    Granite Wash (OK & TX)

    Woodford (OK)

    Marcellus

    Haynesville

    Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)

    Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)

    Delaware (TX & NM Permian)

    Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)

    Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)

    Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)

    Bakken (MT & ND)

    Eagle Ford (TX)

    0.062437

    0.069073

    0.006521

    0.000386

    0.000001

    0.002928

    0.015159

    0.031985

    0.036479

    0.009375

    0.076869

    0.021672

    0.000008

    0.061754

    0.069234

    0.006653

    0.000359

    0.000001

    0.003282

    0.015018

    0.032457

    0.037358

    0.009166

    0.077017

    0.020328

    0.000003

    0.061122

    0.066784

    0.006168

    0.000337

    0.000003

    0.002916

    0.015192

    0.033002

    0.037752

    0.009016

    0.075276

    0.019836

    0.000007

    0.060784

    0.067838

    0.006481

    0.000352

    0.000001

    0.00294

    0.015273

    0.033119

    0.040309

    0.009936

    0.075452

    0.020105

    0.000003

    0.06108

    0.06622

    0.006249

    0.000347

    0.000001

    0.00281

    0.01485

    0.033145

    0.039826

    0.009459

    0.074332

    0.019256

    0.000005

    0.059712

    0.065437

    0.006037

    0.000318

    0.000001

    0.002801

    0.014496

    0.033345

    0.039394

    0.009176

    0.073622

    0.018929

    0.000005

    0.058459

    0.061898

    0.00619

    0.000311

    0.000001

    0.00265

    0.014108

    0.032722

    0.039712

    0.009782

    0.072391

    0.018677

    0.000006

    0.058423

    0.062229

    0.006121

    0.000294

    0.000001

    0.002682

    0.014389

    0.032404

    0.041339

    0.009201

    0.072839

    0.018315

    0.000004

    0.058385

    0.061021

    0.005912

    0.000338

    0.000001

    0.002713

    0.014199

    0.032919

    0.041

    0.008953

    0.073847

    0.018576

    0.000004

    0.058477

    0.061683

    0.006015

    0.000328

    0.000001

    0.002766

    0.015817

    0.034178

    0.042014

    0.009594

    0.075396

    0.018345

    0.000004

    0.057965

    0.059059

    0.006073

    0.000338

    0.000001

    0.002865

    0.015567

    0.033996

    0.038919

    0.009404

    0.075928

    0.018461

    0.000004

    0.060154

    0.056279

    0.005529

    0.000303

    0.000001

    0.002777

    0.015325

    0.033728

    0.038203

    0.009543

    0.075139

    0.017734

    0.000005

    0.061483

    0.057398

    0.005849

    0.000282

    0

    0.002854

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    0.013254

    0.107707

    0.097644

    0.000354

    0.050051

    0.041655

    0.026614

    0.002174

    0.000238

    0.001718

    0.042493

    0.028211

    0.033106

    0.012555

    0.109435

    0.105567

    0.000491

    0.047364

    0.042114

    0.026153

    0.002075

    0.000363

    0.002395

    0.043736

    0.030305

    0.032553

    0.012723

    0.109521

    0.115507

    0.000789

    0.048039

    0.042615

    0.02715

    0.002379

    0.000338

    0.002334

    0.042883

    0.030925

    0.033865

    0.013344

    0.1151

    0.120685

    0.000367

    0.047521

    0.042427

    0.021994

    0.001372

    0.000389

    0.002073

    0.044977

    0.031781

    0.034022

    0.012952

    0.117269

    0.127767

    0.000309

    0.045954

    0.038381

    0.028857

    0.00341

    0.000329

    0.001937

    0.050101

    0.031203

    0.03371

    0.012901

    0.111569

    0.139772

    0.000734

    0.046927

    0.043379

    0.029061

    0.003811

    0.000475

    0.00194

    0.047188

    0.033213

    0.036612

    0.014165

    0.12234

    0.155873

    0.001141

    0.049731

    0.043063

    0.027905

    0.003835

    0.000419

    0.001961

    0.048958

    0.033832

    0.037601

    0.014542

    0.12848

    0.167623

    0.001016

    0.049835

    0.042128

    0.027331

    0.00313

    0.000428

    0.002155

    0.04675

    0.034588

    0.038643

    0.014884

    0.129245

    0.157404

    0.00084

    0.049177

    0.040949

    0.029953

    0.003636

    0.000476

    0.00221

    0.047621

    0.034197

    0.040514

    0.015841

    0.128414

    0.144742

    0.000812

    0.048634

    0.04

    0.030876

    0.003623

    0.000551

    0.002029

    0.049115

    0.036084

    0.039271

    0.014917

    0.128877

    0.15051

    0.00112

    0.047486

    0.03797

    0.03014

    0.003524

    0.000621

    0.001973

    0.049964

    0.03601

    0.037605

    0.015966

    0.129638

    0.154827

    0.001283

    0.0471

    0.037973

    0.031128

    0.004355

    0.000689

    0.001993

    0.045425

    0.034735

    0.036452

    0.015242

    0.127019

    0.156911

    0.00163

    0.046036

    0.037002

    0.031903

    0.0042

    0.000803

    0.001729

    0.046363

    0.035245

    0.035969

    0.01532

    0.124172

    0.165093

    0.001714

    0.046013

    0.035073

    0.030467

    0.003891

    0.000873

    0.001638

    0.047

    0.03473

    0.03407

    0.014582

    0.122873

    0.173215

    0.001356

    0.044239

    0.03427

    0.029521

    0.0037

    0.001666

    0.00157

    0.045428

    0.034013

    0.033392

    0.014766

    0.121638

    0.1858

    0.001901

    0.045238

    0.033411

    0.029363

    0.00349

    0.001871

    0.001595

    0.047059

    0.034583

    0.033575

    0.015313

    0.122589

    0.188758

    0.002111

    0.045498

    0.034282

    0.02998

    0.003489

    0.001916

    0.001552

    0.047239

    0.035631

    0.034564

    0.01444

    0.124473

    0.195171

    0.002977

    0.04488

    0.033777

    0.030551

    0.002842

    0.001808

    0.001557

    0.04558

    0.03555

    0.033526

    0.01455

    0.127795

    0.197753

    0.004834

    0.045856

    0.034241

    0.030541

    0.003004

    0.00181

    0.001593

    0.04831

    0.036689

    0.035316

    0.016116

    0.131952

    0.201659

    0.006531

    0.04282

    0.035274

    0.030985

    0.002746

    0.001701

    0.001836

    0.045671

    0.0371

    0.035351

    0.016293

    0.133475

    0.199825

    0.007058

    0.043782

    0.035382

    0.030834

    0.003259

    0.001827

    0.00159

    0.049341

    0.038344

    0.034427

    0.01767

    0.136661

    0.201265

    0.007723

    0.042451

    0.034755

    0.034276

    0.003583

    0.001966

    0.001694

    0.050892

    0.039902

    0.035934

    0.018752

    0.141062

    0.22011

    0.007489

    0.044064

    0.034722

    0.036496

    0.003582

    0.002182

    0.001656

    0.051109

    0.041123

    0.036252

    0.019125

    0.142775

    0.235873

    0.012198

    0.042888

    0.034056

    0.037552

    0.003932

    0.002203

    0.001575

    0.050557

    0.039177

    0.036212

    0.019132

    0.146078

    0.243307

    0.015326

    0.04323

    0.035267

    0.039306

    0.004193

    0.002798

    0.001402

    0.051175

    0.042186

    0.037614

    0.020292

    0.152123

    0.258638

    0.019229

    0.041721

    0.0353

    0.038745

    0.006128

    0.002979

    0.001284

    0.049444

    0.041994

    0.038888

    0.019102

    0.15414

    0.274796

    0.025076

    0.042579

    0.035526

    0.038838

    0.005974

    0.002271

    0.001259

    0.045171

    0.04271

    0.040314

    0.019914

    0.160678

    0.283281

    0.029673

    0.043629

    0.035342

    0.041209

    0.006269

    0.002162

    0.001427

    0.053194

    0.042815

    0.040215

    0.021514

    0.166116

    0.291353

    0.033781

    0.044196

    0.035593

    0.046671

    0.006258

    0.002661

    0.001206

    0.054408

    0.042224

    0.042798

    0.02302

    0.170071

    0.30542

    0.042221

    0.043892

    0.0366

    0.048355

    0.007008

    0.003006

    0.001271

    0.053513

    0.043824

    0.043564

    0.025826

    0.174643

    0.305919

    0.049414

    0.04446

    0.038216

    0.051709

    0.007574

    0.003071

    0.001254

    0.055885

    0.044398

    0.043299

    0.026743

    0.182788

    0.3209

    0.066161

    0.042952

    0.038384

    0.050794

    0.007609

    0.002895

    0.001272

    0.059802

    0.043298

    0.044312

    0.023559

    0.192219

    0.309381

    0.08703

    0.043044

    0.037285

    0.050552

    0.007277

    0.003466

    0.001321

    0.056947

    0.046123

    0.045152

    0.026067

    0.197604

    0.308362

    0.093183

    0.043366

    0.03656

    0.049637

    0.007117

    0.003965

    0.001214

    0.057212

    0.039632

    0.041709

    0.023609

    0.187081

    0.317137

    0.105404

    0.042569

    0.039188

    0.058052

    0.007932

    0.004182

    0.001259

    0.063181

    0.045528

    0.047456

    0.02922

    0.203236

    0.327765

    0.122085

    0.043068

    0.038189

    0.061094

    0.009322

    0.004322

    0.00123

    0.064792

    0.046952

    0.049034

    0.028941

    0.206647

    0.319477

    0.135871

    0.041943

    0.03857

    0.064456

    0.010801

    0.004818

    0.001277

    0.063546

    0.047693

    0.049482

    0.029505

    0.214448

    0.333834

    0.158954

    0.0413

    0.03741

    0.063439

    0.010996

    0.004895

    0.001227

    0.065594

    0.047096

    0.050685

    0.033938

    0.217466

    0.354957

    0.178198

    0.039519

    0.035172

    0.062229

    0.011085

    0.003908

    0.0012

    0.065629

    0.049339

    0.051349

    0.034945

    0.223

    0.395697

    0.20954

    0.040302

    0.036091

    0.065028

    0.00711

    0.004117

    0.0012

    0.068267

    0.0481

    0.056116

    0.038356

    0.228443

    0.414191

    0.241646

    0.039417

    0.038012

    0.065477

    0.009949

    0.004575

    0.001149

    0.067755

    0.049926

    0.059609

    0.039132

    0.236468

    0.433054

    0.273839

    0.040831

    0.037774

    0.070532

    0.010432

    0.004603

    0.001164

    0.068936

    0.051201

    0.060489

    0.039697

    0.248428

    0.460873

    0.298334

    0.0422

    0.03938

    0.069757

    0.009499

    0.004998

    0.001917

    0.077249

    0.051605

    0.064244

    0.046718

    0.258075

    0.481175

    0.33704

    0.042705

    0.038663

    0.067076

    0.009357

    0.005532

    0.002048

    0.075434

    0.04968

    0.066407

    0.046565

    0.260879

    0.506316

    0.362527

    0.044968

    0.037742

    0.079509

    0.011262

    0.005139

    0.001928

    0.07653

    0.051667

    0.066543

    0.049526

    0.267193

    0.51485

    0.3891

    0.045694

    0.037778

    0.082775

    0.012677

    0.005424

    0.001718

    0.078907

    0.053756

    0.067515

    0.052887

    0.276468

    0.529398

    0.414645

    0.043009

    0.035309

    0.073309

    0.009851

    0.006224

    0.001523

    0.081429

    0.054215

    0.070635

    0.056947

    0.281857

    0.548582

    0.441465

    0.044838

    0.036201

    0.08681

    0.014052

    0.00605

    0.001698

    0.078327

    0.05354

    0.070342

    0.063432

    0.291926

    0.584073

    0.487705

    0.044458

    0.036261

    0.089459

    0.016304

    0.005826

    0.001804

    0.090056

    0.05351

    0.073099

    0.065783

    0.294091

    0.615497

    0.520332

    0.044654

    0.035844

    0.091437

    0.017965

    0.007502

    0.001575

    0.084062

    0.053128

    0.076275

    0.066715

    0.298355

    0.633296

    0.545652

    0.044399

    0.034025

    0.094343

    0.022247

    0.005216

    0.001508

    0.084523

    0.054814

    0.079865

    0.073261

    0.306576

    0.652092

    0.581879

    0.045355

    0.034689

    0.094857

    0.021581

    0.006344

    0.001595

    0.078074

    0.055799

    0.08287

    0.076612

    0.311126

    0.679798

    0.623811

    0.043435

    0.033957

    0.102603

    0.023468

    0.008315

    0.001682

    0.084584

    0.057634

    0.086335

    0.08034

    0.320296

    0.705224

    0.631759

    0.046736

    0.033827

    0.110338

    0.024242

    0.010264

    0.001779

    0.09188

    0.058231

    0.0873

    0.082854

    0.330803

    0.728831

    0.673547

    0.046018

    0.034784

    0.108093

    0.016685

    0.011685

    0.001817

    0.114754

    0.055082

    0.095605

    0.086011

    0.33327

    0.715895

    0.705481

    0.047058

    0.034855

    0.1118865636

    0.022858

    0.012976

    0.001834

    0.116398

    0.056283

    0.092208

    0.088511

    0.337686

    0.749363

    0.736157

    0.047268

    0.035931

    0.1151777636

    0.028024

    0.00994438

    0.001748

    0.114255

    0.055978

    0.091726

    0.087913

    0.338597

    0.719485

    0.77151

    0.047336

    0.035225

    0.1184689636

    0.02201

    0.0131301391

    0.001611

    0.118743

    0.057425

    0.097624

    0.089571

    0.343479

    0.763612

    0.822414

    0.048384

    0.034685

    0.1217601636

    0.030624

    0.0139603843

    0.001654

    0.124875

    0.05541

    0.098567

    0.091738

    0.348662

    0.771138

    0.858759

    0.047423

    0.033538

    0.1250513636

    0.022374

    0.0147853234

    0.001578

    0.125814

    0.057578

    0.102468

    0.106666

    0.352604

    0.778646

    0.869949

    0.047452

    0.035278

    0.1283425636

    0.024887

    0.0156608478

    0.001418

    0.124555

    0.057554

    0.110598

    0.113147

    0.359736

    0.796569

    0.92548

    0.046074

    0.035083

    0.1316337636

    0.024094

    0.0164853012

    0.001385

    0.1327634553

    0.056268

    0.112489

    0.115735

    0.360857

    0.807587

    0.981082

    0.0473748889

    0.035323

    0.1349249636

    0.025189

    0.0173142878

    0.001604

    0.1361013829

    0.056684

    0.117891

    0.114418

    0.368814

    0.86131

    1.014145

    0.0474332222

    0.034785

    0.1382161636

    0.027843

    0.0180869829

    0.001469

    0.1385595139

    0.059621

    0.124092

    0.129561

    0.375148

    0.898626

    1.039947

    0.0474915556

    0.0348174166

    0.1415073636

    0.0261447222

    0.018939322

    0.001231

    0.1433020086

    0.060516

    0.128668

    0.135616

    0.379945

    0.918134

    1.06325

    0.0475498889

    0.0347874999

    0.1447985636

    0.0263091555

    0.019983025

    0.001692

    0.1481914043

    0.0596702407

    0.1332936883

    0.1410855315

    0.39012

    0.928583

    1.0968526882

    0.0476082222

    0.0347575833

    0.1480897636

    0.0264735889

    0.0210703281

    0.0014703903

    0.1532981435

    0.0585273003

    0.1347647637

    0.1439946146

    0.3828258943

    0.960538

    1.128880822

    0.0476665556

    0.0347276666

    0.1513809636

    0.0266380222

    0.0222178138

    0.0014667062

    0.1582293065

    0.0601194634

    0.142599362

    0.1537244579

    0.3963113797

    0.91372

    1.1583856975

    0.0477248889

    0.0346977499

    0.1546721636

    0.0268024555

    0.0234126423

    0.0014634946

    0.1637489878

    0.0610545648

    0.1490864709

    0.1620684531

    0.4056209417

    0.917925

    1.1883870797

    0.0477832222

    0.0346678333

    0.1579633636

    0.0269668889

    0.0246657328

    0.0014598191

    0.16874206

    0.0612941194

    0.1539936722

    0.1687313937

    0.4103969014

    0.936912

    1.2203439738

    0.0478415556

    0.0346379166

    0.1612545636

    0.0271313222

    0.0259842801

    0.0014581802

    0.1733982996

    0.0615455607

    0.1590023596

    0.1755269281

    0.4153052174

    0.962003

    1.251142897

    0.0478998889

    0.0346079999

    0.1645457636

    0.0272957555

    0.02725959

    0.0014573907

    0.1778270651

    0.0618658226

    0.1642671717

    0.1826279592

    0.4207356388

    0.9790318952

    1.2808766177

    data

    DateMonterey (CA)Austin Chalk (LA & TX)Granite Wash (OK & TX)Woodford (OK)MarcellusHaynesvilleNiobrara-Codell (CO, WY)Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)Bakken (MT & ND)Eagle Ford (TX)Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)Delaware (TX & NM Permian)

    1-Jan-000.0624370.0690730.0065210.0003860.0000010.0029280.0151590.0364790.0093750.0768690.0216720.0000080.0319850.03082

    1-Feb-000.0617540.0692340.0066530.0003590.0000010.0032820.0150180.0373580.0091660.0770170.0203280.0000030.0324570.031032

    1-Mar-000.0611220.0667840.0061680.0003370.0000030.0029160.0151920.0377520.0090160.0752760.0198360.0000070.0330020.030571

    1-Apr-000.0607840.0678380.0064810.0003520.0000010.002940.0152730.0403090.0099360.0754520.0201050.0000030.0331190.030549

    1-May-000.061080.066220.0062490.0003470.0000010.002810.014850.0398260.0094590.0743320.0192560.0000050.0331450.03081

    1-Jun-000.0597120.0654370.0060370.0003180.0000010.0028010.0144960.0393940.0091760.0736220.0189290.0000050.0333450.030983

    1-Jul-000.0584590.0618980.006190.0003110.0000010.002650.0141080.0397120.0097820.0723910.0186770.0000060.0327220.029632

    1-Aug-000.0584230.0622290.0061210.0002940.0000010.0026820.0143890.0413390.0092010.0728390.0183150.0000040.0324040.029621

    1-Sep-000.0583850.0610210.0059120.0003380.0000010.0027130.0141990.0410.0089530.0738470.0185760.0000040.0329190.030918

    1-Oct-000.0584770.0616830.0060150.0003280.0000010.0027660.0158170.0420140.0095940.0753960.0183450.0000040.0341780.030664

    1-Nov-000.0579650.0590590.0060730.0003380.0000010.0028650.0155670.0389190.0094040.0759280.0184610.0000040.0339960.030134

    1-Dec-000.0601540.0562790.0055290.0003030.0000010.0027770.0153250.0382030.0095430.0751390.0177340.0000050.0337280.030488

    1-Jan-010.0614830.0573980.0058490.00028200.0028540.016480.0387490.0094010.0776930.0173910.0000040.0338920.030324

    1-Feb-010.0631080.0575170.0059370.0000800.0030550.0156320.0383550.0093950.0763290.01710.0000040.0347610.030693

    1-Mar-010.0625210.0560270.0061760.00034100.0030160.0164360.0389640.0092570.0764640.0174740.0000050.033410.030361

    1-Apr-010.0621790.0561960.0064180.00033200.002890.0163710.0371590.0096920.0747020.0171110.0000020.034320.03012

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    1-May-120.0444580.0362610.0894590.0163040.0058260.0018040.0900560.0730990.0657830.2940910.6154970.5203320.053510.043458

    1-Jun-120.0446540.0358440.0914370.0179650.0075020.0015750.0840620.0762750.0667150.2983550.6332960.5456520.0531280.043434

    1-Jul-120.0443990.0340250.0943430.0222470.0052160.0015080.0845230.0798650.0732610.3065760.6520920.5818790.0548140.045632

    1-Aug-120.0453550.0346890.0948570.0215810.0063440.0015950.0780740.082870.0766120.3111260.6797980.6238110.0557990.045824

    1-Sep-120.0434350.0339570.1026030.0234680.0083150.0016820.0845840.0863350.080340.3202960.7052240.6317590.0576340.047307

    1-Oct-120.0467360.0338270.1103380.0242420.0102640.0017790.091880.08730.0828540.3308030.7288310.6735470.0582310.050205

    Nov-120.0460180.0347840.1080930.0166850.0116850.0018170.1147540.0956050.0860110.333270.7158950.7054810.0550820.050873

    Dec-120.0470580.0348550.11188656360.0228580.0129760.0018340.1163980.0922080.0885110.3376860.7493630.7361570.0562830.052299

    Jan-130.0472680.0359310.11517776360.0280240.009944380.0017480.1142550.0917260.0879130.3385970.7194850.771510.0559780.053519

    Feb-130.0473360.0352250.11846896360.022010.01313013910.0016110.1187430.0976240.0895710.3434790.7636120.8224140.0574250.053157

    Mar-130.0483840.0346850.12176016360.0306240.01396038430.0016540.1248750.0985670.0917380.3486620.7711380.8587590.055410.052199

    Apr-130.0474230.0335380.12505136360.0223740.01478532340.0015780.1258140.1024680.1066660.3526040.7786460.8699490.0575780.052476

    May-130.0474520.0352780.12834256360.0248870.01566084780.0014180.1245550.1105980.1131470.3597360.7965690.925480.0575540.0555312064

    Jun-130.0460740.0350830.13163376360.0240940.01648530120.0013850.13276345530.1124890.1157350.3608570.8075870.9810820.0562680.0556545561

    Jul-130.04737488890.0353230.13492496360.0251890.01731428780.0016040.13610138290.1178910.1144180.3688140.861311.0141450.0566840.0569292335

    Aug-130.04743322220.0347850.13821616360.0278430.01808698290.0014690.13855951390.1240920.1295610.3751480.8986261.0399470.0596210.0584829261

    Sep-130.04749155560.03481741660.14150736360.02614472220.0189393220.0012310.14330200860.1286680.1356160.3799450.9181341.063250.0605160.0597277207

    Oct-130.04754988890.03478749990.14479856360.02630915550.0199830250.0016920.14819140430.13329368830.14108553150.390120.9285831.09685268820.05967024070.0605522936

    Nov-130.04760822220.03475758330.14808976360.02647358890.02107032810.00147039030.15329814350.13476476370.14399461460.38282589430.9605381.1288808220.05852730030.0600287634

    Dec-130.04766655560.03472766660.15138096360.02663802220.02221781380.00146670620.15822930650.1425993620.15372445790.39631137970.913721.15838569750.06011946340.0623208889

    Jan-140.04772488890.03469774990.15467216360.02680245550.02341264230.00146349460.16374898780.14908647090.16206845310.40562094170.9179251.18838707970.06105456480.0639652586

    Feb-140.04778322220.03466783330.15796336360.02696688890.02466573280.00145981910.168742060.15399367220.16873139370.41039690140.9369121.22034397380.06129411940.0648996621

    Mar-140.04784155560.03463791660.16125456360.02713132220.02598428010.00145818020.17339829960.15900235960.17552692810.41530521740.9620031.2511428970.06154556070.0658579764

    Apr-140.04789988890.03460799990.16454576360.02729575550.027259590.00145739070.17782706510.16426717170.18262795920.42073563880.97903189521.28087661770.06186582260.0669023185

    play names

    DateMonterey (CA)Austin Chalk (LA & TX)Granite Wash (OK & TX)Woodford (OK)MarcellusHaynesvilleNiobrara-Codell (CO, WY)Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)Bakken (MT & ND)Eagle Ford (TX)Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)

    Chart1

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    U.S. dry shale gas productionbillion cubic feet per day

    Rest of US 'shale'

    Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)

    Bakken (ND)

    Woodford (OK)

    Barnett (TX)

    Fayetteville (AR)

    Eagle Ford (TX)

    Haynesville (LA & TX)

    Marcellus (PA & WV)

    1.355

    0.482

    0.014

    0.009

    0.163

    0

    0

    0.131

    0.001

    1.357

    0.484

    0.013

    0.009

    0.175

    0

    0

    0.133

    0.001

    1.378

    0.491

    0.013

    0.009

    0.188

    0

    0

    0.133

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    1.4

    0.486

    0.013

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    0

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    1.394

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    0

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    0

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    1.358

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    0

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    0

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    0

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    1.36

    0.455

    0.012

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    0

    0

    0.119

    0.001

    1.358

    0.448

    0.012

    0.008

    0.413

    0

    0

    0.115

    0.001

    1.367

    0.45

    0.012

    0.009

    0.427

    0

    0

    0.115

    0

    1.364

    0.446

    0.011

    0.008

    0.445

    0

    0

    0.118

    0

    1.367

    0.443

    0.011

    0.008

    0.463

    0

    0

    0.116

    0

    1.369

    0.441

    0.012

    0.007

    0.47

    0

    0

    0.118

    0

    1.386

    0.439

    0.012

    0.008

    0.501

    0

    0

    0.12

    0

    1.371

    0.432

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    0

    0

    0.122

    0

    1.341

    0.44

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    0

    0

    0.123

    0

    1.366

    0.442

    0.012

    0.009

    0.533

    0

    0

    0.118

    0

    1.361

    0.435

    0.011

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    0

    0.001

    0.119

    0

    1.342

    0.422

    0.012

    0.008

    0.565

    0

    0

    0.101

    0.001

    1.341

    0.435

    0.012

    0.008

    0.572

    0

    0

    0.116

    0.001

    1.317

    0.428

    0.012

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    0

    0

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    0.001

    1.339

    0.418

    0.013

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    0

    0

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    0.403

    0.013

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    0

    0

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    0.001

    1.344

    0.402

    0.012

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    0

    0

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    0.001

    1.34

    0.408

    0.013

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    0

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    0.001

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    0.012

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    0

    0

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    0.001

    1.373

    0.405

    0.013

    0.009

    0.697

    0

    0

    0.1

    0.001

    1.371

    0.416

    0.014

    0.011

    0.729

    0

    0

    0.099

    0.001

    1.37

    0.408

    0.013

    0.009

    0.736

    0

    0

    0.095

    0.001

    1.381

    0.385

    0.014

    0.009

    0.766

    0

    0

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    0.001

    1.373

    0.4

    0.014

    0.009

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    0

    0

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    0.001

    1.382

    0.408

    0.015

    0.01

    0.802

    0

    0

    0.093

    0.001

    1.369

    0.41

    0.015

    0.009

    0.815

    0

    0

    0.093

    0.001

    1.359

    0.397

    0.016

    0.01

    0.798

    0

    0

    0.089

    0.001

    1.369

    0.4

    0.015

    0.01

    0.808

    0

    0

    0.088

    0.001

    1.377

    0.396

    0.016

    0.011

    0.807

    0

    0

    0.088

    0.001

    1.394

    0.397

    0.017

    0.013

    0.84

    0

    0

    0.087

    0.001

    1.381

    0.394

    0.017

    0.013

    0.846

    0

    0

    0.088

    0.001

    1.383

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    0.015

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    0

    0

    0.085

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    1.379

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    0.016

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    0

    0.091

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    1.354

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    0

    0.091

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    1.368

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    0.017

    0.896

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    0

    0.095

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    1.382

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    0.017

    0.918

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    0

    0.094

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    1.387

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    0.022

    0.015

    0.937

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    0

    0.093

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    1.386

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    0

    0.087

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    1.365

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    0.016

    0.945

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    0

    0.089

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    1.412

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    0.992

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    0

    0.088

    0.001