Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

November 2014

© Amárach Research


Making Progress

It’s only when you look back that you see how

far you’ve come; and so it is this month: the

lowest point ever reached by our Economic

Recovery Index was in November 2010 – just

four years ago.

This month, the Economic Recovery Index has

reached its highest level since we began

measuring it back in April 2009 – a fivefold

increase since November 2010 to be precise.

Some measures remain fragile nevertheless –

like the emotional wellbeing of the population:

we usually see a mild form of ‘seasonal

affective disorder’ set in right about now…

The good news is that consumer willingness to

spend is back to its recent record high, which

bodes well coming up to Christmas.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over five years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

November 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 5th-12th November 2014 inclusive.

See how bad it was four years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-november-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index has once again reached a new record level:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, November 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

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Sep

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Dec

Jan

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Feb

Mar

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July

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Oct

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May

Jun

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Sep

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Dec

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Feb

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July

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Oct

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May

Jun

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Sep

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Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

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July

Au

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Oct

No

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November 2010 was the lowest point in the ERI, 4 years on it’s at its highest ever…


A Matter of Measurement

Oct ’14: 18% Nov ’14: 17%

Oct ’14: 28% Nov ’14: 29%

Oct ’14: 38% Nov ’14: 37%

Oct ’14: 14% Nov ’14: 16%

Oct ’14: 2% Nov ’14: 2%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

A solid majority of Irish people continue to say that the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Nov-09 51 27 21 1 0 17.8

Nov-10 80 12 6 1 1 7.3

Nov-11 57 24 17 2 0 16.3

Nov-12 47 30 20 3 0 19.6

Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6

Oct-14 18 28 38 14 2 38.3

Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9

the ERI has risen fivefold in the four years since November 2010


Recovery – Four Years On

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

(by sex, class, family, income)


November 2014 TOTAL Male Female ABC1 C2DE

Child’n

under

17

Child’n

over

17

Income

under

€30k

Income

€30-60k

Income

€60-90k

Income

€90k+

1000 494 506 477 523 382 380 348 310 108 57

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse 17% 18% 15% 13% 20% 18% 17% 22% 15% 10% 8%


is bad but has stabilized 29% 26% 29% 26% 30% 30% 25% 29% 28% 30% 22%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

37% 32% 39% 40% 32% 34% 40% 35% 37% 36% 45%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

16% 19% 11% 16% 14% 12% 16% 11% 17% 22% 17%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% * 1% 1% 2% 6%

ERI Score 38.9 40.1 37.7 41.9 36.1 35.9 39.9 34.4 40.8 45.7 48.2

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Nov-09 41 45 51 52

Nov-10 18 32 33 45

Nov-11 23 34 42 45

Nov-12 27 34 44 43

Nov-13 36 42 49 44

Oct-14 41 43 51 40

Nov-14 40 38 52 39

while ‘macro sentiment’ remains positive, ‘micro sentiment’ is still weak


Still Optimistic

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, class, family, income):

“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”



Child’n

under

17

Child’n

over

17

Income

under

€30k

Income

€30-60k

Income

€60-90k

Income

€90k+

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 477 523 382 380 348 310 108 57

Strongly Agree 11% 13% 9% 13% 10% 10% 9% 8% 13% 17% 23%

Slightly Agree 29% 29% 28% 33% 25% 28% 27% 24% 32% 37% 33%

Neither/Nor 15% 13% 18% 16% 15% 15% 14% 17% 13% 10% 11%

Slightly Disagree 18% 19% 18% 16% 21% 18% 20% 22% 17% 19% 9%

Strongly Disagree 19% 21% 17% 17% 21% 21% 23% 22% 19% 14% 22%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II


%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Nov-09 16 27 62 28

Nov-10 11 24 50 20

Nov-11 15 26 55 23

Nov-12 16 25 53 22

Nov-13 22 24 54 26

Oct-14 23 25 57 25

Nov-14 26 24 54 28

the % of consumers relaxed about spending is back to peak levels


Purses & Wallets

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”



Child’n

under

17

Child’n

over

17

Income

under

€30k

Income

€30-60k

Income

€60-90k

Income

€90k+

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 477 523 382 380 348 310 108 57

Strongly Agree 9% 10% 7% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 9% 14% 14%

Slightly Agree 18% 17% 18% 22% 13% 16% 18% 9% 21% 23% 31%

Neither/Nor 20% 20% 20% 24% 16% 19% 21% 16% 18% 27% 23%

Slightly Disagree 22% 23% 22% 20% 25% 22% 22% 28% 21% 18% 11%

Strongly Disagree 30% 28% 32% 23% 36% 34% 30% 39% 28% 18% 21%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III


%

I always buy the

lowest price

products or

services

I am always on the

lookout for

opportunities to

switch to cheaper

suppliers

I have more choice

than before when it

comes to products

and services

I always buy Irish

when I can

Apr-13 57 71 52 52

May-13 58 69 54 54

Jun-13 55 70 55 51

Jul-13 56 70 52 53

Aug-13 57 70 53 53

Sep-13 59 72 53 54

Oct-13 58 69 52 51

Nov-13 56 69 55 51

Dec-13 54 68 54 53

Jan-14 59 74 56 54

Feb-14 56 70 57 52

Mar-14 57 68 56 48

Apr-14 56 69 54 50

May-14 60 72 55 51

Jun-14 55 70 58 52

Jul-14 58 72 58 48

Aug-14 56 71 60 51

Sep-14 55 74 61 53

Oct-14 56 68 58 51

Nov-14 58 67 57 52

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

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pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

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bM

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e

July

Au

g

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

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yJun

e

July

Au

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

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Ap

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e

July

Au

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pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

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bM

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e

July

Au

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pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

r

Ma

yJun

e

July

Au

g

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pt

Oct

Nov

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

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pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

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Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

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Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

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pt

Oct

Nov

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Mood Groups



Child’n

under

17

Child’n

over

17

Income

under

€30k

Income

€30-60k

Income

€60-90k

Income

€90k+

1000 494 506 477 523 382 380 348 310 108 57

Enjoyment 48% 46% 50% 51% 45% 43% 53% 47% 49% 59% 57%

Happiness 46% 44% 48% 48% 44% 40% 46% 44% 50% 52% 43%

Stress 44% 42% 47% 44% 44% 52% 35% 45% 43% 44% 50%

Worry 38% 34% 41% 34% 42% 41% 32% 43% 36% 39% 28%

Anxiety 29% 27% 31% 28% 30% 31% 27% 31% 34% 24% 27%

Boredom 22% 23% 21% 19% 25% 19% 18% 24% 20% 21% 16%

Physical Pain 21% 19% 23% 19% 23% 19% 24% 24% 20% 20% 18%

Sadness 20% 17% 23% 18% 22% 21% 17% 22% 18% 20% 16%

Anger 15% 14% 15% 14% 15% 17% 10% 15% 14% 18% 18%

Fear 9% 8% 10% 6% 11% 12% 6% 12% 8% 5% 2%


% saying Yes: November 2014

Amárach Outlook


Shopping for Christmas

Our findings bode well going into the peak

Christmas shopping period, although

consumers will likely spend from incomes and

savings than from borrowings this year.

There’s still a positive momentum showing up

in car and house sales, but consumer

sentiment is fragile at an emotional level.

We hope this edition of the Economic

Recovery Index has given you some food for

thought about the opportunities that lie ahead

– we’d be happy to share other ideas with you

on how to leverage the new momentum.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Amárach Research and Chilli Pepper Marketing have

created the inaugural Loyalty Performance Index

(LPI) and report, which is the first ever independent report

on loyalty programmes in Ireland. The full report can now

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This unique research model has been developed to

identify loyalty winners and provide useful benchmarking

data for any Brands currently running or planning to

embark on a loyalty programme.

If Brands would like to arrange a confidential briefing on

the Loyalty Performance Index, then contact either:

Gerard O’Neill ([email protected])

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Documents

Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2014