Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2015

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

February 2015

© Amárach Research


Modest Momentum

Two months in to the new year and our

Economic Recovery Index confirms a ‘weak

positive’ momentum across the consumer

landscape.

While the general economic outlook continues

to improve (though some measures have not

returned to their late 2014 peak), the key

behavioural indicators (spend, saving,

borrowing) remain mixed at best.

Still, spring is coming, and with it we can

expect a seasonal boost in the emotional

zeitgeist of the nation – this time it might just

translate through to a spending boost as well.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out nearly six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

February 2015.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 9th to 16th February 2015 inclusive.

See how bad it was five years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-march-2010

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index remains at a plateau evident since late Q4 2014:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, February 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ap

r '0

9

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'10

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'11

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'12

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'13

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'14

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'15

the ERI has lost momentum at the start of 2015…


A Matter of Measurement

Jan ’15: 17% Feb ’15: 16%

Jan ’15: 29% Feb ’15: 33%

Jan ’15: 38% Feb ’15: 37%

Jan ’15: 16% Feb ’15: 13%

Jan ’15: 1% Feb ’15: 1%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

A solid majority of Irish people still continues to say that the economy is improving:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Feb-10 39 34 25 2 0 22.7

Feb-11 58 27 14 1 0 18.0

Feb-12 55 25 18 2 0 16.9

Feb-13 42 32 22 4 0 21.8

Feb-14 21 39 33 7 0 31.7

Jan-15 17 29 38 16 1 38.5

Feb-15 16 33 37 13 1 37.4

the ERI still remains below its late 2014 peak…


Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

(by sex, age, Dublin, class)


February 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 486 514 153 275 228 157 187 305 500 500

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse 16% 16% 16% 11% 17% 18% 16% 15% 14% 13% 18%


is bad but has stabilized 32% 34% 30% 38% 32% 34% 33% 24% 35% 33% 31%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

36% 34% 37% 30% 35% 32% 42% 41% 35% 36% 36%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

13% 13% 12% 15% 11% 13% 7% 17% 12% 15% 10%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

1% 2% 1% 0 * 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%

ERI Score 37.4 38.1 36.7 36.6 35.1 37.4 36.2 42.4 37.4 40.0 34.8

Some Progress

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Feb-10 42 47 56 53

Feb-11 24 37 44 45

Feb-12 26 41 44 49

Feb-13 27 36 43 42

Feb-14 38 41 52 47

Jan-15 38 40 50 40

Feb-15 42 42 53 45

overall financial wellbeing indicators have improved…


Nearly Over?

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):

“Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in twelve months’ time”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 486 514 153 275 228 157 187 305 500 500

Strongly Agree 9% 11% 8% 11% 8% 8% 7% 13% 12% 12% 6%

Slightly Agree 33% 32% 33% 29% 33% 34% 32% 34% 33% 37% 29%

Neither/Nor 17% 17% 17% 23% 18% 18% 15% 11% 18% 17% 17%

Slightly Disagree 20% 21% 20% 19% 19% 20% 23% 20% 20% 17% 23%

Strongly Disagree 16% 16% 16% 10% 14% 17% 19% 18% 12% 12% 19%


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Feb-10 18 26 62 29

Feb-11 14 27 61 24

Feb-12 17 29 57 26

Feb-13 16 26 54 24

Feb-14 22 25 58 24

Jan-15 25 23 54 26

Feb-15 27 28 53 26

there has been a recovery in % willing to borrow and % saving more


Serious Savers

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am saving a lot more because of the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 486 514 153 275 228 157 187 305 500 500

Strongly Agree 9% 9% 9% 17% 6% 8% 10% 6% 9% 10% 8%

Slightly Agree 19% 19% 19% 24% 24% 16% 14% 16% 16% 21% 17%

Neither/Nor 25% 25% 24% 28% 26% 27% 17% 24% 27% 25% 25%

Slightly Disagree 17% 17% 17% 14% 17% 16% 16% 20% 19% 17% 17%

Strongly Disagree 28% 28% 28% 11% 23% 32% 41% 34% 26% 25% 31%

Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2015


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

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Jun

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Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

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Jun

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Oct

Nov

Dec

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Oct

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b

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2015


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'15

Fe

b

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


The Mood of the Nation – III



F50+

C2DE

F50-

1000 486 514 153 275 228 157 187 305 500 1000

Enjoyment 50% 50% 50% 54% 43% 45% 50% 62% 53% 54% 50%

Happiness 48% 44% 51% 57% 49% 40% 46% 47% 50% 52% 48%

Stress 37% 35% 39% 48% 42% 43% 30% 20% 37% 37% 37%

Worry 30% 25% 34% 35% 29% 33% 29% 22% 32% 30% 30%

Boredom 27% 27% 26% 44% 25% 25% 27% 17% 27% 25% 27%

Anxiety 25% 22% 27% 32% 23% 28% 21% 19% 27% 25% 25%

Physical Pain 19% 17% 21% 18% 18% 16% 18% 24% 19% 17% 19%

Sadness 14% 11% 17% 20% 14% 14% 12% 13% 16% 13% 14%

Loneliness 13% 11% 16% 17% 13% 13% 16% 8% 14% 12% 13%

Anger 12% 12% 13% 17% 16% 13% 7% 7% 12% 11% 12%

Fear 9% 7% 10% 13% 10% 8% 7% 6% 9% 8% 9%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

Amárach Outlook


Carry Forward

Our ERI survey shows the consumer

economy to be firing on a few engines, but by

no means all of them.

We can expect to see more momentum in the

coming months as falling unemployment

translates into higher spending power, but

even those already in jobs will be more

positively disposed to loosening the purse

and wallet strings.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2015.

For more on the ERI see:

http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Economy & Finance

Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2015