Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2016

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

July 2016: The Post-Brexit Edition


After Brexit

It’s over seven years since we started

tracking the Economic Recovery Index and

the good news is that we appear to be

seeing some recovery in our index!

The decision last month by UK voters to

leave the European Union has reverberated

politically and economically ever since – so

our July poll captures the mood of the Irish

consumer post-Brexit.

The good news is that the Irish appear to be

taking Brexit in their stride, with little

evidence of any short-term consequences

for sentiment and behaviour, though it might

be too early to tell yet…


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to July 2016.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 12th to 20th July 2016 inclusive.

See how (bad) it was seven years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-july-results-2009

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our ERI fell back slightly in July, but is still close to its peak pre-Brexit:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, July 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ap

r '0

9

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'10

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'11

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'12

Mar

May Ju

ly

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'13

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'14

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'15

Mar

May

July

Sep

t

No

v

Jan

'16

Mar

May

July

Despite the shock of Brexit, Irish sentiment about the economy is relatively unchanged


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Jul-09 58 25 16 1 0 15.0

Jul-10 32 34 31 3 0 26.0

Jul-11 47 28 22 3 0 20.3

Jul-12 42 31 23 3 1 22.5

Jul-13 41 30 25 4 0 23.3

Jul-14 18 36 35 10 0 34.7

Jul-15 14 30 37 18 1 40.1

Jun-16 13 27 35 22 3 44.5

Jul-16 13 30 32 22 3 43.1

Our ERI in July 2016 is nearly 3 times its level in July 2009


Economic Recovery Index & Consumer Confidence

There is a strong correlation between our Economic Recovery Index and the

ESRI’s Consumer Sentiment Indicator, April 2009 to May 2016:

Consumer Impact


Recession, Resilience & Recovery

We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery

Index’ back in April 2009 as we wanted to

emphasise the positive and didn’t think the

recession would last so long!

Over these past seven years we have tracked

the highs and lows (and some very lows) in

terms of the mood of the nation and the

impact on consumer spending, borrowing and

saving intentions.

We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the

part of the Irish people when it comes to

‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-

economic uncertainties.

In this section we look at some of the key

indicators when it comes to consumer

spending and saving intentions.


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the worst

of the recession

in 12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to make

it through the

recession

I am optimistic in

spite of the

current economic

situation

Right now it seems

like the recession is

affecting other

people more than it

is affecting me

Jul-09 42 47 58 60

Jul-10 42 47 55 55

Jul-11 26 39 48 49

Jul-12 27 38 45 43

Jul-13 27 39 47 45

Jul-14 37 41 48 44

Jul-15 40 41 51 44

Jun-16 42 49 55 44

Jul-16 37 43 50 44

Feeling ‘financially comfortable’ has fallen back to the same level as in April


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more relaxed

about spending

money than I was a

few months ago

I am saving a lot

more than before

because of the

recession

My main financial

priority is to pay off

my debts as quickly

as possible

I would be happy

to borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Jul-09 14

Jul-10 20 27 62 27

Jul-11 17 26 59 26

Jul-12 18 25 56 25

Jul-13 19 25 56 23

Jul-14 23 24 54 23

Jul-15 28 24 52 27

Jun-16 33 28 56 30

Jul-16 31 28 55 29

Spending sentiment has remained resilient despite Brexit


Positive Spending Trend

Spending sentiment is still up on 3-4 months ago

Mood of the Nation


The Real Mood of the Nation

When we started measuring and reporting the

Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be

more than just another ‘confidence index’.

We therefore set out to measure the full

spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish

consumers – positive as well as negative ones

– in order to provide a unique insight into the

real ‘mood’ of the nation.

We have seen some interesting trends as a

result, including a widening gap between

positive and negative emotions – though both

are trending downwards over time.

The following charts show the trends to July

2016.


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2016


20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

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n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

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Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

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pt

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Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

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r

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Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

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pt

Oct

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Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

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g

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pt

Oct

Nov

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Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

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r

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ne

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Oct

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n'1

6

Feb

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r

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n

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ly

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to July 2016


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

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pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

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ly

Au

g

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pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

6

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Amárach Outlook


Unfazed by Brexit

In our first Post-Brexit Economic Recovery

Index we have found little evidence of a

Brexit shock to Irish consumer sentiment,

either in terms of its emotional impact or its

behavioural impact.

We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2016 –

and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s

consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.

For more on the ERI (including 7 years worth of data) see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm


PlanR Database

We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.

We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending

levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey

You can view the full list (as well as

a free dashboard) here:

Contact us for subscription details

and information about special offers

http://getplanr.com/planr-data

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Marketing

Amárach Economic Recovery Index July 2016