Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016

1Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

October 2016


Autumnal Tones

As summer gives way to autumn our

Economic Recovery Index reflects a less

buoyant mood than prevailed just a few

months ago.

The ‘Brexit Bounce’ we noted previously

hasn’t been sustained as consumers revert

to a more cautious outlook and behavioural

stance, even – on some measures –

returning to levels of caution seen a few

years ago.

But consumers are slowly becoming more

likely to ‘Buy Irish’ – as our analysis in this

month’s issue reveals.

We hope you find this month’s edition helpful

as you plan for the rest of 2016.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out over six years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009

to October 2016.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 10th to 20th October 2016 inclusive.

See how bad it was seven years ago:http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-October-results-2009

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, October 2016

Our Economic Recovery Index remains flat, showing little change since late 2015

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

Ap

r-0

9

Ju

l-0

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Oc

t-0

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Ja

n-1

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Ap

r-1

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l-1

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Oc

t-1

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Oc

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Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

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Oc

t-1

6

ECONOMIC RECOVERY INDEXAPRIL 2009 - OCTOBER 2016


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Oct-09 47 30 22 1 0 19.6

Oct-10 56 23 18 2 1 16.3

Oct-11 42 31 25 2 0 22.0

Oct-12 48 28 21 3 0 19.8

Oct-13 32 32 32 4 0 27.4

Oct-14 18 28 38 14 2 38.3

Oct-15 11 29 35 22 3 43.9

Sep-16 15 29 33 20 3 43.3

Oct-16 14 30 33 21 2 42.5

Our ERI is little improved since one year ago, though still up on two years ago

Consumer Impact


Recession, Resilience & Recovery

We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery

Index’ back in April 2009 as we wanted to

emphasise the positive and didn’t think the

recession would last so long!

Over these past seven years we have tracked

the highs and lows (and some very lows) in

terms of the mood of the nation and the

impact on consumer spending, borrowing and

saving intentions.

We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the

part of the Irish people when it comes to

‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-

economic uncertainties.

In this section we look at some of the key

indicators when it comes to consumer

spending and saving intentions.


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the worst

of the recession

in 12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to make

it through the

recession

I am optimistic in

spite of the

current economic

situation

Right now it seems

like the recession is

affecting other

people more than it

is affecting me

Oct-09 48 46 55 56

Oct-10 26 41 44 52

Oct-11 26 38 49 45

Oct-12 26 38 48 44

Oct-13 30 36 44 43

Oct-14 41 43 51 40

Oct-15 42 46 54 45

Sep-16 33 42 49 39

Oct-16 35 44 55 41

Optimism has bounced back, though financial resilience is flat


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more relaxed

about spending

money than I was a

few months ago

I am saving a lot

more than before

because of the

recession

My main financial

priority is to pay off

my debts as quickly

as possible

I would be happy

to borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Oct-09 16 32 61 33

Oct-10 15 25 59 27

Oct-11 14 22 54 23

Oct-12 16 25 56 25

Oct-13 18 24 57 24

Oct-14 23 25 57 25

Oct-15 33 27 51 28

Sep-16 33 31 57 35

Oct-16 32 29 55 32

Willingness to borrow has fallen back slightly, though spending is stable


Buying Irish

Willingness to buy Irish has improved slightly since early 2015

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

% AGREE: I ALWAYS BUY IRISH WHEN I CAN

Mood of the Nation


The Real Mood of the Nation

When we started measuring and reporting the

Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be

more than just another ‘confidence index’.

We therefore set out to measure the full

spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish

consumers – positive as well as negative ones

– in order to provide a unique insight into the

real ‘mood’ of the nation.

Lately some interesting but rather strange

things have emerged: our levels of stress and

anger have fallen to their lowest levels ever,

but our level of happiness is trending

downwards as well, despite the recovery.

The following charts show the trends to

October 2016.


The Mood of the Nation – I

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2016


20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

gS

ep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

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r

May

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ne

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ly

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gS

ep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

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r

May

Ju

ne

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ly

Au

gS

ep

t

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

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ly

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gS

ep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

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ne

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ly

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gS

ep

tO

ct

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Dec

Ja

n'1

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r

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ly

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gS

ep

tO

ct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

6

Feb

Mar

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r

May

Ju

nJu

ly

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation – II

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2016


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

0

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

1

Feb

Mar

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r

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ne

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ly

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g

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pt

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Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

2

Feb

Mar

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r

May

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ne

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ly

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g

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pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

3

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

4

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

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ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

5

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

ne

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ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ja

n'1

6

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Amárach Outlook


Unfazed by Brexit

This is our fourth Post-Brexit Economic

Recovery Index and it seems that Irish

consumer sentiment has adjusted to the

new realities across the Irish Sea.

We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2016 –

and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s

consumer needs.

We hope you find this edition of the

Economic Recovery Index helpful and

please do get in contact if you want to

discuss how it can be applied to your brand

planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.

For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm


PlanR Database

We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.

We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending

levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey

You can view the full list (as well as

a free dashboard) here:

Contact us for subscription details

and information about special offers

and join more than two dozen other

organisations using their own

customised planning dashboard.

http://getplanr.com/planr-data

Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

s. slideshare.net/amarach/

Marketing

Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2016