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CSIRO ES Seminar Series 19 May 2011
Canberra
Managing native vegetation - insights from longitudinal site management histories
Richard ThackwayACEAS Sabbatical Fellow
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Outline
• TERN and ACEAS
• Definitions and concepts
• The method – vegetation transformations
• A case study
• How might this information be used?
• Where to from here
www.abare-brs.gov.au
TERN facilities interaction
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Australia’s future landscapes – The big issues and questions
Biodiversity conservation, biodiverse carbon, biosequestration, food security - agriculture moving to northern Australia etc
1. What has happened in this landscape over time e.g. <200yrs?
2. How might historic/ contemporary impacts of land use (LU) and land management practices (LMP) affect future land use options/ decisions?
www.abare-brs.gov.au
A model of change in ecosystems
Source: Adamson and Fox (1982). Time
Ch
ang
e i
n v
eg
eta
tio
n v
ari
able
Settlement
10000
Reference
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Occupation
Relaxation
Anthropogenic change
Net impact
Time
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Mod
ifica
tion
scor
e
Reference
Based on Hamilton, Brown & Nolan (2008). FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Assessment
Transformation pathway
www.abare-brs.gov.au
• Public & private NRM agencies
? reporting on the status of resource/s
? developing policy & design programs
? informing priorities for investment in NRM
? monitoring and reporting and improvement following investment
? Developing scenarios and planning
• Researchers
• Education
• Wider community
Drivers for this information?
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Land use and management – the primary agents of landscape transformation
• Management of native veg leads to modification, fragmentation, removal and replacement or enhancement
• For example 2010 Australia’s landscapes:
– 9 used for cropping
– 58 used for grazing sheep and cattle
– 0.2 plantations
– 12.8 in conservation reserves
• Numerous studies have identified pressure metrics or indicators of the impacts of LU and LMP
– Result in changes in vegetation structure, composition & function
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Solutions to date – snap shots
• Site-based assessments
? Scoring survey sites relative to benchmark sites e.g. BioCondition, Habitat Hectares etc
? State and transition models
• Whole of landscape assessments
? Classifying mapping units relative to reference unmodified /least modified statee.g. VAST (Vegetation Assets States and Transitions) and Vegmachine
9
www.abare-brs.gov.au
The problem
Vegetation transformation
∆ VC score
∆ time×
∆ VC score
∆ space/extent
VC = Benchmarked vegetation condition
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Why a project of transforming of Australia’s vegetated landscapes?
At the national level
• No approach for compiling sequential land use and management histories
• No consistent approach for assessing the response of vegetation communities to impacts/pressures over time and space
? Regenerative capacity
? Vegetation structure
? Species composition
• No infrastructure to compile a repository of where, when Australia’s vegetated landscapes were and are being transformed
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Project aims
• Build on the ‘transitions’ component of the VAST framework
• Develop and test a method for describing the transforming of Australia’s native vegetation by:
? Documenting longitudinal site histories of LU) and LMP
? Developing a system for scoring the responses of native vegetation communities to sequential changes in land use LU and LMP
? Presenting interim results as transformation graphs
• Contribute to developing guidelines for assessing and monitoring the transformation of vegetated landscapes
www.abare-brs.gov.au
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Literature review and case studies
• Review identified 22 indicators (pressure metrics, anthropogenic disturbances)
• Literature as a resource for case studies
? More anecdotal stories than reliable observations /measurements
? More two date than multi-temporal changes
? More observations of coarse scale than fine scale changes
? More binary/ single comparison of attributes than changes in multi-attribute states (e.g. regen capacity, structure and species)
? More remote sensing than ecological plot-based observations
? More contemporary local than long term landscape change
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Data synthesis and hierarchy
Site
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Data synthesis and hierarchy
Site
Indicators 22
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Data synthesis and hierarchy
Site
Attribute groups 10
Indicators 22
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Data synthesis and hierarchy
Site
Diagnostic attributes 3
Attribute groups 10
Indicators 22
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Data synthesis and hierarchy
Site
Transformation score/site /year 1
Diagnostic attributes 3
Attribute groups 10
Indicators 22
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1
3
10
22
Dia
gn
ost
icat
trib
ute
sA
ttri
bu
teg
rou
ps
SpeciesComposition
(2)
UnderstoreyOverstorey
(2)
Indicators
Scoring sites for each year
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1
3
10
22
Dia
gn
ost
icat
trib
ute
sA
ttri
bu
teg
rou
ps
VegetationStructure
Overstorey
(3)
Understorey
(3)
SpeciesComposition
(2)
UnderstoreyOverstorey
(2)
Indicators
Scoring sites for each year
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1
3
10
22
Dia
gn
ost
icat
trib
ute
sA
ttri
bu
teg
rou
ps
VegetationStructure
Overstorey
(3)
Understorey
(3)
SpeciesComposition
(2)
UnderstoreyOverstorey
(2)
RegenerativeCapacity
Fire
(2)
Reprodpotent
(2)
Soil
Hydrology
(2)
Biology
(2)
Chemistry
(2)
Structure
(2) Indicators
Scoring sites for each year
www.abare-brs.gov.au
1
3
10
22
Dia
gn
ost
icat
trib
ute
sA
ttri
bu
teg
rou
ps
VegetationStructure
Overstorey
(3)
Understorey
(3)
SpeciesComposition
(2)
UnderstoreyOverstorey
(2)
RegenerativeCapacity
Fire
(2)
Reprodpotent
(2)
Soil
Hydrology
(2)
Biology
(2)
Chemistry
(2)
Structure
(2) Indicators
Scoring sites for each year
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1
3
10
22
Dia
gn
ost
icat
trib
ute
s
VegetationTransformation
score
Att
rib
ute
gro
up
s
VegetationStructure
Overstorey
(3)
Understorey
(3)
SpeciesComposition
(2)
UnderstoreyOverstorey
(2)
RegenerativeCapacity
Fire
(2)
Reprodpotent
(2)
Soil
Hydrology
(2)
Biology
(2)
Chemistry
(2)
Structure
(2) Indicators
Scoring sites for each year
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Case studies: NSW Open Grassy Woodland
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How are longitudinal site histories compiled and transformation data derived for each site?
www.abare-brs.gov.au
30
Compiling and translating historical observations requires three core elements
Where
When What
www.abare-brs.gov.au
1800
1850
1900
1750
1950
2000
2050
DNA matching Source ID: 1a
Source ID: 1b
Sequencing historic & contemporary LU & LMP and responses of native vegetation
Year
Final synthesised sequenceMultiple sources
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Step 2A: Score impacts of LU & LMP on attributes of regenerative capacity
Step 2B: Score impacts of LU & LMP on attributes of vegetation structure
Step 2C: Score impacts of LU & LMP on attributes of vegetation composition
Step 2: Score impacts relative to a reference condition for each site and year
Step 3: Calculate total scores of impacts of LU/LMP on themes for each site for each year
Step 4 – Graph total scores to illustrate transformation
Step 5– Model spatial and temporal extents of condition at a landscape level, using GIS, remote sensing , ecological models
Step 6 – Validate the results of the spatial and temporal models using independent datasets and peer review
Workflow for deriving impacts of LU and LMP vegetation
Step 1C: Standardise site-based observation using national guidelines for LU & LMP. Fill gaps from regional records
Step 1: Compile primary data on LU and LMP histories for case study sites
Step 1A: Compile and translate and check. Include major natural events e.g. droughts, floods, fires, cyclones
Step 1B: Compile and check data on impacts of LU & LMP on native veg.
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Step 1A & 1B: Compile and check disturbance histories
Year LU LMP
1788 Indigenous land management Fire management
1815 Indigenous land management Fire management
1820 Indigenous land management Fire management
1830 Grazing native vegetation Shepherding sheep and cattle
1850 Grazing native vegetation Fences established (set stocking commenced) - freehold land
1860 Grazing of native vegetation Closer settlement – set stocking smaller paddocks
1898 Grazing of native vegetation Prolonged drought set stocking
1900 Grazing native vegetation Woodland areas on higher ground were partly cleared - set stocking
1939 Grazing native vegetation Set stocking sheep
www.abare-brs.gov.au
34
Land use
codes
Land Management Practices codes PLANTS_VEG (codes 1.n.n.n.n.) on
ANIMALS (codes 2.n.n.n.n) on
SOIL (codes 3.n.n.n.n) on
WATER (codes 4.n.n.n.n)
YearALUM
classification
First
LUMIS
code
Second
LUMIS
code
Third
LUMIS
code
Forth
LUMIS
code
Fifth
LUMIS
code
1788 1.2.5
1815 2.1.0 1.3.1.4
1820 2.1.0 1.3.1.4
Step 1C: Standardise LU & LMPs using national guidelines
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Regenerative capacity
Year
RC_fire_burnt_are
a
RC_fire_starts
RC_soil_hyd_surf_w
ater
RC_soil_hyd_gnd_wat
er
RC_soil_phys_dpth_
a
RC_soil_phys_struct
RC_soil_chem_fert_n
pk
RC_soil_chem_trace_elem
RC_soil_biol_invert_recyc
RC_soil_biol_organ_
matt
RC_reprod_potent_
OS
RC_reprod_potent_
US
1788 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11815 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11820 0.9 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11830 0 0 0.9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11850 0 0 0.7 1 0.8 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 1 11860 0 0 0.5 1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.5 0.6 1 11898 0 0 0.4 1 0.7 0.7 0.8 1 0.3 0.2 1 11900 0 0 0.3 1 0.7 0.6 0.8 1 0.3 0.6 1 11939 0 0 0.3 1 0.7 0.6 0.8 1 0.3 0.6 1 1
Step 2A: Derive scores for regen capacity
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Step 2B: Derive scores for vegetation structure
36
Vegetation structure
Year
VS_OS_height
VS_OS_fpc
VS_OS_div_age_clas
s
VS_US_height
VS_US_gnd_cov
VS_US_div_age_cla
ss
1788 1 1 1 1 1 11815 1 1 1 1 1 11820 1 1 1 1 1 11830 1 1 1 1 1 11850 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.81860 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.61898 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.31900 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.31939 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Species composition
Year
SC_OS_fnl_groups
SC_OS_richness
SC_US_fnl_groups
SC_US_richness
1788 1 1 1 11815 1 1 1 11820 1 1 1 11830 1 1 1 11850 0.7 1 0.7 0.91860 0.6 1 0.6 0.71898 0.4 1 0.4 0.61900 0.4 1 0.4 0.61939 0.4 1 0.4 0.6
Step 2C: Derive scores for species composition
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Step 3: Calculate total scores of impacts of LU/LMP for each site & year (benchmarked)
38
Year Regenerative capacity (%)
Vegetation structure (%)
Species composition (%)
1788 55 27 18
1815 55 27 18
1820 52 27 18
1830 45 27 18
1850 41 20 15
1860 36 16 13
1898 32 11 11
1900 33 11 11
1939 33 12 11
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Step 4: – Graph total scores to illustrate vegetation transformation
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Step 4: – Graph scores for diagnostic attributes
Benchmark scores
www.abare-brs.gov.au
How are this site-based scores validated?
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Certainty level standards for the LUMIS historical records
Geocode accuracy
Temporal accuracy
LU or LMP accuracy
Spatial extent
accuracy
HIGH "Definite"
MEDIUM "Probable"
LOW "Possible"
www.abare-brs.gov.au
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Year List of LU and LMP history NSW_Talaheni_Murrumbateman: 34,58,1.94S;149,10,41.15E
1788 Indigenous land management1825 First explorers in the district 1830 Grazing of native vegetation (shepherds)1850 Fencing and set stocking with sheep commenced 1860 Pre-clearing of overstorey set stocking with sheep continues1900 Overstorey cleared1962 Overstorey thinned to promote grazing 1980 Commenced rehabilitation toward native vegetation1983 Area grazed using pulse grazing in drought1986 Area continues to be used for pulse grazing in drought
1997 Manage the stand composition and structure to meet multiple outcomes
2004 Continuing to light graze with sheep in droughts
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Year List of LU and LMP history NSW_Talaheni_Murrumbateman: 34,58,1.94S;149,10,41.15E
1788 Indigenous land management1825 First explorers in the district 1830 Grazing of native vegetation (shepherds)1850 Fencing and set stocking with sheep commenced 1860 Pre-clearing of overstorey set stocking with sheep continues1900 Overstorey cleared1962 Overstorey thinned to promote grazing 1980 Commenced rehabilitation toward native vegetation1983 Area grazed using pulse grazing in drought1986 Area continues to be used for pulse grazing in drought
1997 Manage the stand composition and structure to meet multiple outcomes
2004 Continuing to light graze with sheep in droughts
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Year List of LU and LMP history NSW_Talaheni_Murrumbateman: 34,58,1.94S;149,10,41.15E
1788 Indigenous land management1825 First explorers in the district 1830 Grazing of native vegetation (shepherds)1850 Fencing and set stocking with sheep commenced 1860 Pre-clearing of overstorey set stocking with sheep continues1900 Overstorey cleared1962 Overstorey thinned to promote grazing 1980 Commenced rehabilitation toward native vegetation1983 Area grazed using pulse grazing in drought1986 Area continues to be used for pulse grazing in drought
1997 Manage the stand composition and structure to meet multiple outcomes
2004 Continuing to light graze with sheep in droughts
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Belconnen Naval Transmitter Station rainfall anomaly 1900-2010
Drought years
YearsSource: BOM
Rai
nfal
l ano
mal
y
‘Good years’
11 year trend line
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Assumptions of this approach
• Changes in LU & LMP
– result in predictable changes in structure, floristics & regen capacity
– can be consistently and reliably differentiated from natural events
– are adequately and reliably documented over time
– can be reliably used to score changes in vegetation transformation
• Sequential changes in veg transformation over time can be
represented at sites and landscapes
48
www.abare-brs.gov.au
49
Types of data and information
1. Mainly - text-based e.g. • Land use and land management history
• Environmental history
• Ecological history
• Other
2. Mainly spatial - maps and models incl. remotely images/GIS– ecological sources
– land use and LMP sources
– Geographical and historical sources
– other
Older & more qualitative
More recent & more quantitative
www.abare-brs.gov.au
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
0
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2
3
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X, Y Tas Midlands
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1
2
3
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X, Y Tas Midlands
How might this information be used to address the big issues?
Hypothetical
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1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
0
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2
3
4
5
6
7
X, Y Tas Midlands
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1
2
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X, Y Tas Midlands
How might this information be used to address the big issues?
• Opportunities• Options• Tradeoffs
Hypothetical
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Provides a basis for a conversation with a land manager
Benchmark scores
?
??
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Dia
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ost
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trib
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VegetationTransformation
score
Att
rib
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gro
up
sProvides a basis for a conversation with a land manager
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Dia
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ost
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trib
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VegetationTransformation
score
Att
rib
ute
gro
up
sProvides a basis for a conversation with a land manager
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Dia
gn
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trib
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VegetationTransformation
score
Att
rib
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gro
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RegenerativeCapacity
Provides a basis for a conversation with a land manager
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Dia
gn
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trib
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VegetationTransformation
score
Att
rib
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gro
up
s
RegenerativeCapacity
Fire
(2)
Reprodpotent
(2)
Soil
Hydrology
(2)
Biology
(2)
Chemistry
(2)
Structure
(2) Indicators
Provides a basis for a conversation with a land manager
www.abare-brs.gov.au
1
3
10
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Dia
gn
ost
icat
trib
ute
s
VegetationTransformation
score
Att
rib
ute
gro
up
s
VegetationStructure
Overstorey
(3)
Understorey
(3)
RegenerativeCapacity
Fire
(2)
Reprodpotent
(2)
Soil
Hydrology
(2)
Biology
(2)
Chemistry
(2)
Structure
(2) Indicators
Provides a basis for a conversation with a land manager
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1
3
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Dia
gn
ost
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trib
ute
s
VegetationTransformation
score
Att
rib
ute
gro
up
s
VegetationStructure
Overstorey
(3)
Understorey
(3)
SpeciesComposition
(2)
UnderstoreyOverstorey
(2)
RegenerativeCapacity
Fire
(2)
Reprodpotent
(2)
Soil
Hydrology
(2)
Biology
(2)
Chemistry
(2)
Structure
(2) Indicators
Provides a basis for a conversation with a land manager
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Step 5 – Scaling up to landscape levels
Static layers• first contact by European explorers• slope & relief derived from 30m DEM• aspect classes derived from 30m DEM• weathering layer• digital atlas of soils+• pre-European vegetation types (NVIS)
Time series response variables• rainfall anomaly (post 1900)• state-wide & national land tenure• FPC (post 1980s)*• ground cover (post 1980s)*• NDVI / EVI (post 1980s)*• native veg (tree) layers*• state-wide & national land use
• sheep DSE• cattle DSE• cropping• urban areas• Plantations• nature conservation reserves• indigenous protected areas
• Infrastructure• railways• roads
• fire regime (fire area & No. fire starts)*• otherTERN AusCover*
TERN Soils+
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Landform Pattern and Topographic Position Index. 30 m – DEM SRTM
Nass Valley - ACT
www.abare-brs.gov.au
61
Transformed native vegetation informing future land use options
1788 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
2010
2050 Scen 1 2050 Scen 2 2050 Scen 3 2050 Scen 4
Before 2010
Current
Future scenarios – the big issues
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Vision for the future
• Recognition of the benefits of compiling site-based contemporary LU & LMP
• Greater awareness of consequences LU & LMP and the responses of native vegetation i.e. +ve and –ve
• Discoverable and accessible data and info via a national repository
? when and where landscapes were and are being transformed
www.abare-brs.gov.au
• Process is tedious
• Preliminary site-based results are promising
• Independent datasets & peer review needed to validate results
Conclusions
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Acknowledgements
• TERN ACEAS for funding my sabbatical fellowship at UQ in Brisbane
• CSIRO Ecosystems Sciences, Canberra for hosting me in Canberra
• ABARE-BRS, Greening Australia, Forestry NSW, CSIRO ES, John Ive and others for providing datasets
www.abare-brs.gov.au
Thank you
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