Centro de Sensoriamento RemotoUNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE

MINAS GERAIS

Modelling spatially explicit forward-looking baselines

Claudia SticklerREDDex, July 13-15, 2010

Applications of the Amazon Scenarios modeling system in Amazon REDD projects

•Juma (Amazonas State)**•Surui (Rondonia indigenous land project)**•State of Acre•Northwestern Mato Grosso project**•Xingu Social-environmental Carbon •Brazilian Amazon

** Used model results not developed for reference level estimation

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 130

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Measured Deforestation, Mato Grosso

Brazil baseline applied to Mato Grosso

Brazil target applied to Mato Grosso

Mato Grosso Target

Annu

al D

efor

esta

tion

(km

2 )Mato Grosso REDD targets within a national program

Indigenous Lands

Protected Areas

Sustainable Use Areas

Private Lands

508,474 km2

>95% of possible REDD+ participant

nations

~60% of area

~98% of deforestation

3.3% = 10,502 ha/yr

2.3% = 216,376 ha/yr

1.3% = 483,380 ha/yr

0.0035% = 3791 ha/yr

Nepstad et al. 2010

Historical average

•Dinamica EGO platform (www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/)

•High to medium resolution (100-m to 1-km)

•Calibrated and run at nested sub-basin levels

•Regrows forests and cerrado

Simulated (modeled) baseline

Stickler et al. 2009 GCB; Stickler 2009

Variable types for calibration

clearing

roads

topography

population centers

streams

protected areas

soils/suitability

Sub-basins (2nd order)

Microbasins (7th order +)

7572 watersheds

mean = 5981 ha

range: 1 – 70,766 ha

Basic units of change

Cells

2940 x 7434 cells

4 ha (200 x 200-m)

Scenarios• Business as Usual – historical rate and pattern of deforestation continues– historical level of compliance with environmental legislation

continues– low, high, average– varying weight of historical protection of PAs, ILs, etc.

• Current Forest Code – 80% “legal reserve” (RL) in forest biome; 35% RL in cerrado; 100%

forest in riparian zone– Varying protection of indigenous lands, protected areas

• State Zoning Plans– 4 zones: 80% forest RL in 2 zones; 50% forest RL in 1 zone; 35%

cerrado RL in 3 zones; 100% forest in riparian zone– Varying protection of indigenous lands, protected areas

Stickler 2009; Nepstad et al. 2010

Nepstad et al. 2010

High

Low

Comparison of modeled baselines with historical average, Xingu River Basin

Nepstad et al. 2010

Initial(2007)

BAU Average(2037)

BAU Low(2037)

BAU High(2037)

Comparison of modeled baselines with policy intervention scenarios

Nepstad et al. 2010

BAU Average(2037)

Forest Code(2037)

Zoning(2037)

Forest Code + 20% in ILs

(2037)

Emissions avoided (Xingu River Basin)Implementation of Forest Code (private lands) & strict protection of ILs and PAs

Comparison of modeled baselines for private lands in the Xingu River basin

Nepstad et al. 2010

Comparison of modeled baselines for indigenous lands in the Xingu River basin

Nepstad et al. 2010

Nepstad et al. 2010

Nivel de amenaza

Priorización de áreas protegidas

Carbon stocks & emissions on indigenous lands in the Brazilian Amazon

Soares-Filho et al. 2010 PNAS

Modeled baselines based on forest transition?

North Amazon BasinCongo Basin

South Amazon Basin Europe North America

North East AsiaSouth Asia

Time

Natio

nal f

ores

t co

ver

Atlantic forest

South East Asia

OceaniaWest Africa

(Zarin et al. 2009)

Assessing ecological & economic trade-offs

• Hydrology: THMB surface hydrology transport model (Coe et al. 2000, 2009)

• Climate• Water Quality: Basic indicators (Neill et al. 2006,

Nepstad et al. 2007; Macedo et al., in prep.)• Habitat Quality & Biodiversity Potential• Fire Incidence (and associated CO2 emissions)

(Silvestrini et al. 2009, Stickler et al. in prep)• Carbon sequestration potential• Opportunity cost• Restoration costs

CollaboratorsAne Alencar (IPAM)Oriana Almeida (IPAM, UFPa)Alessandro Baccini (WHRC)Paulo Brando (IPAM)Oswaldo Carvalho (IPAM)Andrea Cattaneo (OECD)Mike Coe (WHRC)Laura Dietzsch (IPAM)Josef Kellndorfer (WHRC)Andre Lima (IPAM)Marcia Macedo (Columbia U)

Paulo Moutinho (IPAM)Daniel Nepstad (IPAM)Hermann Rodrigues (UFMG)Britaldo Soares Filho (UFMG)Osvaldo Stella (IPAM)Wayne Walker (WHRC)Toby McGrath (WHRC, IPAM)Frank Merry (Moore)Maria Bowman (UCB, WHRC)John Carter (AT)Sergio Rivero (UFPa)

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

Sample of REDD-Relevant Publications from Amazon Scenarios Program

Merry, F., B. Soares-Filho, D. Nepstad, G. Amacher, and H. Rodrigues. 2009. Balancing conservation and economic stability: the future of the Amazon timber industry. Environmental Management

Nepstad, D., B. Soares-Filho, F. Merry, A. Lima, P. Moutinho, et al. 2009. The end of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Science 326: 1350-1351.

Nepstad, D, A. Veríssimo, A. Alencar, et al. 1999. Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire. Nature. 398:505-508.

Soares-Filho, B. S., P. Moutinho, D. Nepstad, et al. 2010. Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate mitigation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.

Soares-Filho, B., D. Nepstad, L. Curran, et al. 2006. Modeling Amazon conservation. Nature 440: 520-523.

Stickler, C.M., D.C. Nepstad, M.T. Coe, D.G. McGrath, H.O. Rodrigues, et al. 2009. The potential ecological costs and cobenefits of REDD: a critical review and case study from the Amazon region. Global Change Biology 15:2803–2824

Vera-Diaz, M. del C., R. K. Kaufmann, D. C. Nepstad, P. Schlesinger. 2007. An interdisciplinary model of soybean yield in the Amazon Basin: the climatic, edaphic, and economic determinants. Ecological Economics

Lima et al. 2010; Nepstad et al. 2010

Potential nesting of the Xingu “Socio-environmental Carbon” Project

C-REDDs Allocated to Amazon States

Mato Grosso C-REDD Allocation C-REDD Allocation to Other States

Priv

ate

Land

Pro

gram

Indi

geno

us L

and

Prog

ram

Prot

ecte

d Ar

ea P

rogr

am

Farm

Sett

lem

ent P

rogr

am

Stat

e In

stitu

tions

/Go

vern

ance

C-RE

DD B

uffer

Indigenous Land Fund

100 MtCO2e

RegulatedEntities, Other

Investors

$

Indigenous Land Projects (Xingu, NW, etc.)

“C-REDDs”

Mato Grosso Indigenous Land Systemic Program

Nepstad et al. 2010

Historical average extended into future