AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

March 14, 2017

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. Russia deployed military personnel to Libya to secure its military and economic interests amid the escalating civil war.

2. The Saudi-led coalition and the internationally recognized Hadi government in Yemen will not agree to ceasefire terms while current frontlines hold.

3. Al Shabaab is conducting an explosive attack campaign in Mogadishu that threatens to undermine the legitimacy of the new federal administration.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

Al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda in Syria began a new phase of military operations against the Syrian regime. The Tahrir al Sham Assembly, a rebel coalition that includes al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Fatah al Sham, attacked Shia pilgrims in Damascus and Assad regime forces in southern Dera’a city.

Outlook: Al Qaeda in Syria will conduct spectacular attacks to set conditions for future offensive operations.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesPakistan seeks to preserve its strong relationship with Saudi Arabia while balancing internal tensions. Pakistan pledged $1 million USD in aid to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. Pakistan may also deploy a brigade to help Saudi Arabia secure its southern border, according to an unconfirmed report. Pakistani involvement in a Sunni coalition raises the risk of backlash from Pakistan’s Shia population.

Outlook: Pakistan will maintain low-level involvement in the Saudi-led coalition but will avoid significant public support.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalPresident Hadi refused to meet with the UN Special Envoy to Yemen to discuss a ceasefire. The Saudi-led coalition and Hadi government intend to seize Yemen’s Red Sea ports before beginning negotiations. Pakistan pledged $1 million USD in aid to the Hadi government.

Outlook: The Hadi government will not accept a ceasefire without further military success.

SecurityThe Saudi-led coalition announced that it will base in Mokha city, Taiz governorate, to support Operation Golden Spear, which aims to control Yemen’s western coastal ports.

Outlook:The al Houthi-Saleh bloc will counter Saudi-led coalition armor in al Hudaydah governorate, where the Hadi government lacks support. Operation Golden Spear will stall.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenISIS Wilayat al Bayda may temporarily fill a security vacuum in central Yemen. Wilayat al Bayda increased attacks after AQAP likely withdrew from the al Bayda frontline following five days of U.S. airstrikes. Wilayat al Bayda likely consists of former AQAP members.

Outlook: AQAP will resume operations on the al Bayda frontline.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

1) 09 MAR: A reported U.S. airstrike targeted AQAP in Mayfaa district.

2) 10 MAR: A Saudi-led coalition airstrike killed 22 civilians in a qat market in Khawkah city.

3) 10 MAR: AQAP fired Grad rockets at Emirati-backed Hadhrami Elite Forces in al Ghabar.

4) 11 MAR: ISIS Wilayat al Bayda attacked al Houthi-Saleh forces in Amar, al Sawmah district.

5) 14 MAR: AQAP attacked al Houthi-Saleh forces in A’arfaf area, al Dhaleh governorate.

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PoliticalNew Somali President Farmajo risks losing popular support if he cannot deliver on campaign promises. Somali soldiers protested unpaid salaries. Famine is spreading in Somalia.

Outlook: The federal government’s limited reach will hamper aid distribution.

Security The U.S. may increase its supporting role in ongoing operations against al Shabaab. U.S. AFRICOM also seeks to extend AMISOM’s withdrawal schedule until 2019.

Outlook: Increased military pressure on al Shabaab will limit the group’s attack capabilities but will not degrade its popular support base.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab detonated two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) in Mogadishu on the same day, signaling an uptick in the group’s campaign to degrade security in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab is also seizing population centers and disrupting AMISOM logistics lines in regions surrounding Mogadishu.

Outlook: Al Shabaab’s campaign will degrade support for the government in Mogadishu.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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1) 07-09 MAR: Al Shabaab gunmen assassinated several clan leaders in southern Mogadishu.

2) 09 MAR: Ethiopian AMISOM forces repelled an al Shabaab attack in Bardhere, Gedo region.

3) 10 MAR: The UAE finalized plans to build a base in Boosaaso, Puntland.

4) 13 MAR: Al Shabaab detonated two SVBIEDs targeting a hotel and a military base in central Mogadishu.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe UN-backed peace process is deteriorating as conflict over oil escalates in Libya. The House of Representatives (HoR) withdrew its support for the agreement that established the Government of National Accord (GNA). Anti-GNA sentiment is increasing in eastern Libya.

Outlook: Lack of HoR participation will derail UN and regional peace efforts.

SecurityThe Libyan National Army (LNA) recaptured two oil ports seized by the al Qaeda-linked Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB) on March 3. Clashes are ongoing in central Libya. Egypt and possibly Russia may have supported the LNA counterattack.

Outlook: Clashes over oil sites may grow into broader civil conflict in central Libya.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaThe al Qaeda network supports BDB elements and may have helped coordinate the oil port attacks. Al Qaeda associates in Benghazi and Derna increased operations to fix LNA forces.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will exploit the increasingly polarized civil war to expand its support base.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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WEST AFRICA LIBYA

1) 03 MAR: The MSCD increased operations in Derna.

2) 07 MAR: The LNA massed 5,000 troops in Brega for a counterattack against the BDB.

3) 07-12 MAR: The LNA air force conducted airstrikes against BDB positions in al Sidra, Ras Lanuf, al Uqaylah and Ben Jawad.

4) 13 MAR: The LNA clashed with the BRSC in the 12 Buildings complex of Qanfouda district, Benghazi.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the MaghrebAQIM- and ISIS-affiliated militants may cooperate against security forces in western Tunisia. Pro-ISIS media allegedly reported that AQIM and ISIS militants cooperated to thwart an ambush by the Tunisian army in Kasserine governorate, western Tunisia.

Outlook: AQIM and ISIS militants will not compete in shared safe havens.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)Al Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) is engaged in a campaign to build operational capabilities. Suspected JNIM militants seized vehicles from the Malian Army in Fafa, eastern Mali. JNIM fired indiscriminately at civilians as well as soldiers.

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s deteriorating health risks throwing Nigeria into chaos. Buhari’s deputy, a southern Christian, enacted pro-southern economic policies which will incite sectarian unrest. Buhari’s return to Nigeria will not mitigate questions about his health, and the Nigerian executive will remain weak through the 2019 elections.

Outlook: JNIM will exploit weak points in security forces in order to seize weapons. Boko Haram will exploit sectarian tensions in order to expand in Nigeria.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

1) 09 MAR: Moroccan police arrested two ISIS militants that planned attacks in the country and procured material to make IEDs.

2) 10 MAR: The Algerian Army destroyed  three militant bunkers between Bouira and Bordj Bou Arreridj provinces in northern Algeria.

3) 13 MAR: Salafi-jihadi militants killed a policeman in an attack on a police station in Janoura, Kabili Governorate, Tunisia.

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SAHEL2

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1) 07 MAR: Sudanese rebel fighters captured three Boko Haram fighters alongside Sudanese soldiers in South Kordofan, Sudan.

2) 09 MAR: The Nigerian Army raided a hotel in Gombe State, Nigeria in response to a bomb threat.

3) 13 MAR: Suspected JNIM militants attacked the Malian Army in a market in Fafa, Gao Region, killing two soldiers and four civilians.

SAHEL

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ACRONYMS

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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB)Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC)Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Group for the Aid of Islam and the Muslims (JNIM)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch managerkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569

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