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AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Update and Assessment
October 17, 2017
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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1) Al Shabaab conducted the most lethal attack in its history as part of a
campaign to delegitimize the Somali Federal Government in Mogadishu.
2) A southern Yemeni political body formed a new parliament in a major
challenge to the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
3) A key delegation withdrew from UN-brokered talks on Libya, stalling the
peace process.
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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA
Tehrik-e-Taliban, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda Associates
The United States is escalating its air campaign against the Haqqani network in Pakistan’s
tribal areas. The U.S. conducted as many airstrikes targeting the group in a one month
period as it did in all of 2016. The uptick in strikes is likely a component of President Donald
Trump’s new Afghanistan strategy, which stressed the prevention of cross-border basing.
Outlook: The Haqqani network’s ability to conduct attacks in Pakistan’s tribal areas will be
temporarily disrupted.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
An Emirati-backed southern Yemeni political body significantly undermined the internationally
recognized Yemeni government by forming a rival parliament and announcing plans to hold an
independence referendum.
Outlook: Fracturing of the Yemeni state will likely hinder a political resolution to the conflict.
Security
Conflicting power centers in Aden city are threatening the city’s stability. Emirati-backed forces
targeted Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Islah party members. The Islah party plays a prominent
role in the Hadi government.
Outlook: Emirati-backed forces will work to undermine Hadi government-affiliated institutions.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
U.S. forces struck ISIS training camps in central Yemen for the first time. These airstrikes do
not indicate an increase in ISIS’s presence in Yemen, which maintains a small presence in al
Bayda governorate and cooperates tactically with AQAP.
Outlook: ISIS’s attacks in central Yemen will decrease.
GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
1) 12-13 OCT:
Emirati-backed
forces arrested 11
Islah party
members in Aden.
2) 14 OCT: Al Houthi-
Saleh forces fired a
ballistic missile at
Saudi Arabia.
3) 14 OCT: AQAP
snipers targeted al
Houthi-Saleh forces
in al Bayda.
4) 14 OCT: AQAP
militants detonated
an IED targeting
Emirati-backed
forces in Abyan.
5) 16 OCT: U.S.
airstrikes targeted
ISIS camps in Wald
Rabi’, al Bayda.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
The Kenyan police’s use of excessive force against opposition protesters is exacerbating
instability from Kenya’s electoral crisis. Kenyan police have killed dozens of civilians in daily
protests against Kenya’s electoral commission since August.
Outlook: Kenya’s electoral commission will mediate negotiations to resolve the crisis.
Security
The resignations of top Somali military officials is compromising Somalia’s national security.
The head of the SNA and Minister of Defense resigned because of internal disputes.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will leverage Somalia’s military leadership vacuum to regain territory.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab is improving its IED capabilities to facilitate its campaign to delegitimize the
Somali Federal Government in Mogadishu. Suspected al Shabaab militants detonated two
VBIEDs in Mogadishu, causing over 570 casualties.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will lose support due to the civilian casualties inflicted in Mogadishu.
GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
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1) 11 OCT: Al
Shabaab attacked
an SNA base near
Balcad, Middle
Shabelle region.
2) 12 OCT: Al
Shabaab ambushed
a Kenyan Defense
Force (KDF) convoy
in Elwaq, Gedo
region.
3) 14 OCT: Suspected
al Shabaab militants
detonated VBIEDs
in Mogadishu, killing
hundreds of people.
4) 16 OCT: Al
Shabaab militants
attacked a SNA
checkpoint in Afgoi,
Lower Shabelle
region.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
The UN-led peace process is stalling. The delegation from the eastern Libyan parliament
withdrew from talks following a disagreement over control of the country’s armed forces. This
issue was a primary stumbling block in prior peace processes.
Outlook: Negotiators will bypass, not resolve, the disagreement in order to resume talks.
Security
LNA commander Khalifa Haftar is attempting to take over northwestern Libya. Haftar’s forces
have advanced westward and southward from their base in eastern Libya in recent months.
Haftar is now forging alliances to increase his power in the northwest, where his main
opponents are based.
Outlook: Haftar will advance toward Tripoli by co-opting support in surrounding towns.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
Security forces arrested al Qaeda and ISIS members in Misrata following an ISIS suicide
bombing in the city on October 4.
Outlook: Salafi-jihadi cells will temporarily retreat from Misrata to havens in Libya’s interior.
WEST AFRICA LIBYA
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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WEST AFRICA LIBYA
1) 11 OCT: Security
forces raided
suspected ISIS
hideouts in the
Sakit neighborhood
of Misrata.
2) 11 OCT: Factional
violence continued
between rival
militias competing
for control of
Sabratha.
3) 16 OCT: Militias
clashed over
control of Maetiga
airport in Tripoli.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the Maghreb
Local anti-government protests broke out in response to the death of Tunisian migrants on
the Mediterranean. Demonstrators burned two government buildings and marched to the
security headquarters in Souk Lahad, Kebili governorate. The Tunisian government
deployed security forces to quell the demonstrations.
Outlook: Protests may spread if security forces use violence against demonstrators.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (JNIM, Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)
The U.S. may increase engagement in the Sahel. The Trump administration is reportedly
considering an offensive with Nigerien forces against a militant group that attacked an
American-Nigerien joint patrol on October 4, killing four American servicemen. No group has
claimed the attack. Militants affiliated with both AQIM and ISIS operate in the area.
Chad withdrew hundreds of troops from counter-Boko Haram operations in Niger. Boko
Haram attacks increased in the Nigerien-Nigerian border region after the Chadian
withdrawal.
Outlook: The U.S. will likely increase the role and security measures of its troops stationed
in Niger. Boko Haram will regain control of terrain in areas vacated by Chadian forces.
WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB
1) 07 OCT: Tunisian
security forces
arrested an ISIS
recruiter in Tunis.
2) 08 OCT: Tunisian
security forces
arrested four
militants in
Sejnune, Bizerte
governorate.
3) 12 OCT: Tunisian
security forces
deployed in
response to
protests in Souk
Lahad, Kebili
governorate.
4) 13 OCT: Tunisian
forces arrested four
ISIS militants in El
Mohammedia, Ben
Arous governorate.
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL
1) 12 OCT: The
Malian army killed
four suspected
JNIM militants in
Tombouctou.
2) 13 OCT: Nigerian
security forces
killed three Boko
Haram militants in
Bama, Borno State.
3) 16 OCT: Suspected
Boko Haram
militants killed 23
civilians in Bassa,
Plateau, Nigeria.
4) 16 OCT:
Suspected Ansar al
Islam militants
attacked a
Burkinabe police
station in Solle,
Loroum province,
Burkina Faso.
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ACRONYMS
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB)
Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC)
Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM)
Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
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Katherine Zimmerman
research manager
(202) 888-6576
Marie Donovan
senior Iran analyst
(202) 888-6572
Maher Farrukh
al Qaeda analyst
(202) 888-6574
Caroline Goodson
program assistant
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
(202) 888-6570
Mike Saidi
Iran analyst
(202) 888-6573
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
(202) 888-6569
