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Technology AssessmentTechnology Assessment
Superfactory Excellence Program™Superfactory Excellence Program™www.superfactory.comwww.superfactory.com
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OutlineOutline
Management of TechnologyManagement of Technology Sociotechnical ChangeSociotechnical Change Technology PlanningTechnology Planning Technology ForecastingTechnology Forecasting Managing ForecastingManaging Forecasting Methods and IssuesMethods and Issues LifecyclesLifecycles MonitoringMonitoring Tools for TrendingTools for Trending Extrapolating Technological TrendsExtrapolating Technological Trends Expert OpinionExpert Opinion
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Result of Technology’s Increasing Result of Technology’s Increasing SignificanceSignificance
Technology assessmentTechnology assessment originally driven by concern regarding the negative originally driven by concern regarding the negative
effects of technology on the environment and effects of technology on the environment and society. society.
now much more encompassing now much more encompassing Technology forecastingTechnology forecasting
assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need for technology forecasting.for technology forecasting.
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Product Life Cycle
Commercial launch
Years from Launch
Innovation Growth MaturityDecline
Profit
Sales Volume
MaximumProfit
MaximumSales Volume
Withdrawn from
marketSales
Revenue(x1,000,000)
Profit Revenue
(x100,000)
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
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Impact/Technology Assessment Impact/Technology Assessment
It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified, occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified, with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or delayed.delayed. (Joseph Coates, 1976) (Joseph Coates, 1976)
It should be viewed by technology managers as professional It should be viewed by technology managers as professional obligation and social responsibilityobligation and social responsibility
It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape the context of technological planningthe context of technological planning
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Forecasting-Technology Management Forecasting-Technology Management RelationshipRelationship
Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology management processmanagement process Predicts possible technological changes that might affect Predicts possible technological changes that might affect
corporate goalscorporate goals Provides useful information to decision makersProvides useful information to decision makers
The shape and format of forecasting are determined by The shape and format of forecasting are determined by Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group
of units…)of units…) Audience goalsAudience goals
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Stages of Technological InnovationStages of Technological Innovation
Stage 3: VerificationStage 3: Verification laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the
proposed theory or design conceptproposed theory or design concept Stage 4: Laboratory DemonstrationStage 4: Laboratory Demonstration
first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful formform
Stage 5: Field TrialStage 5: Field Trial full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes
the prototype or pilot-plantthe prototype or pilot-plant
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Competitive Technology Lifecycle
Time
Ex: Vacuum tubes v. transistors : Sail v. steamships
Traditional technology
Emergent technology
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Fisher-Pry ModelFisher-Pry Model
Substitution modelSubstitution model Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point y(t) = 1/(1 + ey(t) = 1/(1 + e-b(t-a)-b(t-a)))
y(t)y(t) = fraction of the potential market served by the new = fraction of the potential market served by the new technology at time technology at time tt
a a = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total marketmarket
b b = rate of adoption = rate of adoption
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Technological Description/ForesightTechnological Description/Foresight
Technology description is a subset of technology foresightTechnology description is a subset of technology foresight Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for
the opportunities and challenges that new technologies the opportunities and challenges that new technologies offeroffer
Noted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan LittonNoted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan Litton
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Choosing Experts Opinion Capture Choosing Experts Opinion Capture TechniqueTechnique
Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985):capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985):1.1. Logistics: resources largely determine the methodLogistics: resources largely determine the method2.2. Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is
desirabledesirable3.3. Communication medium: is a function of access to experts, Communication medium: is a function of access to experts,
resources, and timeresources, and time
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