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NCEP Status
“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”
Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction
Director
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NWS-OAR Model Issues MeetingDecember 3, 2012College Park, MD
Outline
• Strategic Basis for NCEP Model Suite• Ongoing Review Activities• Operational Global Models: How to
Improve• Links to OAR• Summary
2
Strategic Basis for NCEP Model Suite
• Climate – Weather Linkage• Earth System Model – approach applied
across all scales• Run within ESMF• MMEs applied across all
scales• Community model approach
3
NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12
NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission
– Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAARelated to ability to meet service-based metrics (below)
– National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics
(* Government Performance & Results Act)Hurricane Track and Intensity Winter Storm WarningPrecipitation Threat Flood WarningMarine Wind Speed and Wave Height
– Customer Service ProviderOperational numerical guidance provides foundational tools
used by Government, public and private industry to Improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth
4
Lead Time and
Accuracy!
NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12
Regi
onal
DA
5
Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMNMMBGFS, Canadian Global Model
Regional NAMNEMS-NMMB
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Refreshfor Aviation
Climate ForecastSystem
NOAA’s OperationalNumerical Guidance Suite
GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
OceansHYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
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Regi
onal
DA
Satellites + Radar99.9%
~2B Obs/Day
NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern
Gulf of Mex• Columbia R.
Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware
SpaceWeather
ENLIL
Sea Nettle
Forecast
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
Regi
onal
DA
NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12
Global Data AssimilationSystem Upgrade
• Hybrid system– Most of the impact comes from this
change– Uses ensemble forecasts to help
define background error
• NPP (ATMS) assimilated– Quick use of data 7 months after
launch
• Use of GPSRO Bending Angle rather than refractivity– Allows use of more data (especially
higher in atmos.)– Small positive impacts
• Satellite radiance monitoring code– Allows quicker awareness of problems (run
every cycle)– Monitoring software can automatically detect
many problems
• Partnership between research and operations– (NASA/GMAO, NOAA/ESRL, Univ OK, and
NOAA/NCEP)
• Consolidation across systems– Unify operational data assimilation system
for global, regional and hurricane applications
– Cost effective—O&M– Configuration management
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Implemented 22 May 2012
NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 7
NCEP Closing the International GapJune, July, August 500hPa Geopotential RMSE
NCEP achieved significant improvement in 2012 for day 3 and beyond
NCEP is now similar to UKMO skill in this metric and AC
Meteo-FrCMCNCEPUKMOECMWF
2011 2012
Solid line lower than dashed indicates improvement between 2011 and 2012
NCEP Only System to show improvement between 2011 and 2012
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Attribute CFS v1.0Operational Since
2004
CFS v2.0Operational Since March 2011
Multi-model Ensembles
(MME)
Analysis Resolution
200 km 27 km International MME
(Operational)
NCEPUKMet
ECMWFMeteoFrance
Atmosphere model
2003: 200 km/64 levelsHumidity based clouds
2010: 100 km/64 levelsVariable CO2
AER SW & LW radiationPrognostic clouds & liquid water
Retuned mountain blockingConvective gravity wave drag
Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S1/3 x 1 deg.
Assim depth 750 m
MOM-4 fully global¼ x ½ deg.
Assim depth 4737 m
Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation
2-level OSU LSMNo separate land data
assim
4 level Noah modelGLDAS driven by obs precip
National MME
(Research)
NCEPGFDLNCARGSFCCOLA
U.Miami/RSMASU.CO/CIRES
Princeton
Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and 3-layer interactive sea ice model
Coupling Daily 30 minutes
Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis,
uncoupled background
Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background
Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output
24/month (seasonal)124/month (week 3-6)
NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS)
Ongoing Review Activities
• UCAR Review Team – Has made the Strategic Model Plan the #1 priority
• Climate Test Bed Advisory Board – Build towards CFS v3, based on community input and
climate-weather linkages– Expand MME concept to an “NMME”
• Space Weather– Build the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) within next 3-
5 years by extending GFS up to 600 km• Weather Models
– DTC– NUOPC/ESPC– NAEFS 9
Operational Global Models: How to Improve
• GFS, CFS, MME• Short term plans for FY13-15: build off new
computer installation• Longer term plans:
– Establish evaluation criteria– Evaluate new model cores– Include within MME approach– Coordinate with NUOPC/ESPC– Include test bed as fundamental part of decision
process– Work from written plans (e.g., DA plan) 10
NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 11
Planned GFS/GDAS 2013-2014 Operational Upgrade
• Next window of opportunity for GDAS/GFS upgrade• Nov 2013 to May 2014• Follows WCOSS Moratorium
• Model configuration• T1148 Semi-Lagrangian, L64 (~16km 0-8 days)• T574 Semi-Lagrangian, L64 (~27km 8-16 days)• Physics upgrades for the radiation and precipitation parameterizations
• Data assimilation upgrade • 3D-En-Var Dual Resolution
• 80-member ensemble at 27-km and a 16-km analysis with 64 vertical levels
• New and enhanced observations• Cloudy Radiance• Satellite winds• CrIS from NPP• METOP-B • SSMI/S GPS-RO enhancements
• New integrated bias correction• Water Vapour analysis enhancements
• Climatological CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide and CO for input in CRTM*• Consistent cloud water retrieval in quality control
NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 12
Planned GFS/GDAS 2015 Operational Upgrade
• Next window of opportunity for GDAS/GFS upgrade• Nov 2014 to May 2015• Follows 2014 hurricane season
• Model configuration• T1148L95 (0-8 days)• T547L95 (8-16 days)• Raised model top in preparation for space weather module• Physics upgrades for the radiation and precipitation parameterizations
• Data assimilation upgrade • 4D-En-Var Dual Resolution
• 80-member ensemble at 27-km and a 16-km analysis with 95 vertical levels
• New and enhanced observations• New integrated bias correction
NOAA Global Modeling Summit 12/3/12 13
• Facilitated by the NOAA Climate Test Bed
• NMME as a Modeling Test-Bed• Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales• Predictability Research: e.g., South East US Drought• Model Evaluation and Development• Initialization Strategies: e.g., Land, Ocean• Fosters interaction between research and operations• Provides experimental guidance products to Climate Prediction Center
• Participating Organizations:• University of Miami - RSMAS• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)• Center for Ocean--‐Land--‐Atmosphere Studies (COLA)• International Research Ins7tute for Climate and Society (IRI)• Canadian Meteorological Centre (Soon)
National Multi-ModelEnsemble (NMME) Project
Data are available at: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/
• NASA – GMAO• NOAA/NCEP/EMC/CPC• NOAA/GFDL• Princeton University• University of Colorado (CIRES
Links to OAR
• CPO– CFS/CTB– DYNAMO
• ESRL/Boulder– Rapid Refresh– Data Assimilation– Global Weather– HFIP– Drone Evaluation
• GFDL– Oceans!– Climate – NMME, FV
dynamic core– Physics
• AOML– JCSDA– HFIP
• ARL– HYSPLIT– Air Quality
• NSSL– Mesoscale MME– Radar DA
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Keep in mind, we have similar lists for NESDIS and NOS
Summary
• NCEP is strategically positioned to work with larger research community extending well beyond OAR (NESDIS, NOS, NSF, NASA, DOE)
• Exceptional interaction with OAR – most productive has been initiated through written agreements (DA & FIM most recent examples)
• Agree we need a strategy for models and HPCC within NOAA for short term weather (day 1-15; DTC Testbed?) and short term climate (week 2 – seasonal and beyond; CTB)
• Implementation process must be inclusive and criteria for decision well-documented. Nevertheless, NCEP Director will still have final say.
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THANK YOU