NOAA Space Weather Prediction NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Center

New Developments on Space New Developments on Space Weather Forecasting and ModelingWeather Forecasting and Modeling

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniDirector

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Seventh Symposium on Space WeatherAtlanta, GA

January 18, 2010

Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies

Overview

• Update: Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)

• Evolving Customer Needs

•Meeting the new forecast challenges; Accelerating R2O

• Status of the Space Weather Prediction Testbed• Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)/Enlil - Heliospheric Model

• Future plans

SWPC UpdateSWPC Update

• Historic Budget Increase: 2.7 M upward adjustment in FY10 base support for transition activities

• Continued effort to enhance SWPC full service capabilities

– Based on input from SWEF and Space Weather Workshop

– Web subscriptions now at 9894 (Dec 2009) compared to 3645 (May 2006)

• IT upgrades well on their way; goal is to make SWPC fully IT compatible with other NCEP centers

• SWPC reaching out to observation and research communities (transfer of operational observation calibration activities to NESDIS)

• Accelerating R2O through a commitment to O2R (using SWPC/NCEP infrastructure for research and transition activities)

• Space Weather Prediction Testbed being spun up within SWPC (with Air Force support)

• Historic Budget Increase: 2.7 M upward adjustment in FY10 base support for transition activities

• Continued effort to enhance SWPC full service capabilities

– Based on input from SWEF and Space Weather Workshop

– Web subscriptions now at 9894 (Dec 2009) compared to 3645 (May 2006)

• IT upgrades well on their way; goal is to make SWPC fully IT compatible with other NCEP centers

• SWPC reaching out to observation and research communities (transfer of operational observation calibration activities to NESDIS)

• Accelerating R2O through a commitment to O2R (using SWPC/NCEP infrastructure for research and transition activities)

• Space Weather Prediction Testbed being spun up within SWPC (with Air Force support)

Evolving Customer Needs

Space Weather Services are Critical to the World’s Economy and Security

• Aviation• Polar route use – ~8,000 flights in 2008 • Next Generation Air Transportation System – GPS based

• GPS• Single biggest source of error is space weather• Strong growth in applications – surveying, drilling, precision agriculture, navigation, aviation

• Electric Utilities• Potential for significant disruption of service due to geomagnetic storm with $Trillion consequences• FEMA addressing potential impacts related to space weather events through simulated exercise

• Space Systems• World satellite industry revenues in 2008: >$144 billion • Space weather support is critical for manned space flight and NASA robotic missions

Solar Maximum

Service begins

SES Satellite Inmarsat FEMA Boeing FAA

North America Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC)

L-3 Communications

Florida Division of Emergency Mgnt.

British Petroleum America

Bonneville Power Administration

Washington St. Dept of Transportation

Caterpillar, Inc. Alaskan Airlines United Launch Alliance

Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Stations

Example of Registrants in 2009

Feb 2009

• The number of products does not include the NOAA POES and GOES data, or NASA ACE solar wind data, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month

• Over 400 event-driven products were issued during the solar minimum years (1996 & 1997 and again in 2007 & 2008)

Annual Number of Space Weather Products IssuedAnnual Number of Space Weather Products Issued

• Prolonged solar minimum appears to be ending

• Several active regions observed in Dec 2009 and Jan 2010

• Numerous C-class flares and coronal mass ejections observed

Dec 2009

Current Status: Solar Activity Increasing

Next maximumIn 2013

Meeting the New Forecast Meeting the New Forecast Challenges; Accelerate R2OChallenges; Accelerate R2O

• Space Weather Prediction Testbed

• WSA/Enlil

• Space Weather Prediction Testbed

• WSA/Enlil

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Space Weather Prediction Testbed

• Goal – To accelerate the transition of research models and data streams into operational products and services in order to meet evolving customer requirements for space weather observation and prediction

• AF Weather funded a study (at $100K per year) in FY2008/2009 so a joint AFWA/SWPC SWx DTC can be stood up in FY2010

• SWPC FY10 budget increase will support this initiative (900K in 2010, 1.6M in 2011)

• Based at SWPC in Boulder – spinning up in FY2010

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Space Weather Prediction Testbed

• First Project: Transition Enlil to Operations: currently running smoothly on NCEP R&D IBM Power6 computer (with NCO/EMC)– Partnership with CIRES (Dusan Odstrcil)– Partnership with CCMC (Michael Hesse)– Partnership with AFRL (Nick Arge)– Partnership with NCO/EMC (Dan Starosta)

• Second Project: TBD– CCMC will conduct an evaluation of magnetosphere

models

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Space Weather Prediction Testbed Interest Group

• An independent coalition of community members• Consulted on a Regular Basis by the SWPC Director

– To obtain community guidance and inputs on key decisions– To communicate SWPT activities to the community– To inform the strategic planning for the SWPT– To ensure a level playing field for all research groups

• The SWPTIG to meet annually at the Space Weather Workshop and conduct quarterly teleconferences

• Modeled on the highly successful Commercial Space Weather Interest Group

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Why WSA/Enlil?

• The current operational capability is a 20-50 minute prediction (for Earth) based on ACE at L1

• Modeling the propagation of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth (and Mars) offers the promise of 1-4 day advance prediction for (geo)magnetic storms

• Such an improvement in service is– Useful to power grid operations

– An improvement in forecast performance

– Attainable with current understanding

• WSA/Enlil forms the foundation for the next operational models

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Summary/Future Plans

• SWPC is well-positioned in FY10– Budget– Spin up of Space Weather Prediction Testbed

• SWPC will– Continue with its transition to provide full service capabilities within

NCEP– Continue to reach out to the observation and science communities

(SWEF; Annual Workshop; Testbed Interest Group)– Work through Space Weather Prediction Testbed to accelerate R2O

(including vertical extension of today’s terrestrial prediction models into the ionosphere and above)

SWPC’s Goal:Provide the right information… in the right format...

at the right time… to the right people…to make the right decisions