NOAA/NCEP Space Weather Prediction Center

Space Weather Prediction Testbed: Transitioning Satellite Data to Operations

Rodney ViereckDirector, Space Weather Prediction Testbed

Presentation to the Satellite Science Meeting24 February, 2015

Outline:SWPC and SWPT

Models and ProductsIDEAGOLD

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Space Weather Prediction Center

24 February 2015

Operations – Space Weather Forecast Office

R & D – Space Weather Prediction TestbedTransitioning models into operations

Putting out daily forecast since 1965.

Specifications; Current conditions

Forecast; Conditions tomorrow

Watches; Conditions are favorable for storm

Warnings; Storm is imminent with high probability

Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding storm thresholds

Research-to-Operations• Applied Research• Model Development• Model Test/Evaluation• Model Transition• Operations Support

Operations-to-Research• Customer Requirements• Observation Requirements• Research Requirements

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Modeling at NOAA – A Sun to Earth ModelingPartnerships with the Space Weather Research Community

24 February 2015

Sun:WSA Operational

Solar Wind: Enlil Operational

Magnetosphere:U. Michigan SWMF Operational in 2016

Ionosphere:IPE Operational in 2017

Thermosphere:WAM Operational in 2017

Aurora:OVATION Operational

Ground:E-Field Operational in 2016

Note: a vast majority of customers are concerned only about the near-Earth ionosphere

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POESMETOPCOSMIC II

GOESSDO

SOHOACE

DSCOVR L1

Primary Space Weather Satellites

•ACE (NASA)– Solar wind composition,

speed, and direction– Magnetic field strength and

direction

•SOHO (NASA/ESA)– Solar EUV Images– Solar Corona (CMEs)

•STEREO (NASA)– CME Direction and Shape– Solar wind composition,

speed, and direction– Magnetic field strength and

direction

•GOES (NOAA)– Energetic Particles– Magnetic Field– Solar X-ray Flux– Solar X-Ray Images

•POES (NOAA)•METOP (EUMETSAT)

– High Energy Particles– Total Energy Deposition– Solar UV Flux

STEREO(Ahead)

STEREO(Behind)

•SDO (NASA)– Solar EUV Images– Solar Magnetograms– Solar EUV spectra

•DSCOVR (NOAA/NASA/DOD)

– Solar wind composition, speed, and direction

– Magnetic field strength and direction

•COSMIC II (Taiwan/NOAA)

– Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles

– Ionospheric Scintillation

White: Currently OperatingRed: Future Missions

24 February 2015

524 February 2015

Current SWPC ProductsUS-TEC

CME Analysis Tool

Satellite Environment Model

HF Com Absorption

Aurora Forecast Model - 30 Minute Forecast

Relativistic Electron Forecast Model

Wing Kp Forecast

WSA

WSA-Enlil

Synoptic Drawings Solar X-ray Flux

624 February 2015

Models Under Development

Solar EUV Irradiance Model- Specification- Forecast

Far-side Analysis

Aurora Forecast Model- 3-Day Forecast

Global TEC Assimilative Model

ROTI GPS Product

Solar Flare Forecast

Whole Atmosphere Model

Electric Field Model

Ionosphere/Plasmasphere/Electrodynamics Model

Geospace Model

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Models Under Development

Solar EUV Irradiance Model- Specification- Forecast

Far-side Analysis

Aurora Forecast Model- 3-Day Forecast

Global TEC Assimilative Model

ROTI GPS Product

Solar Flare Forecast

Whole Atmosphere Model

Electric Field Model

Ionosphere/Plasmasphere/Electrodynamics Model

Geospace Model

IDEAIntegrated Dynamics in Earth’s

Atmosphere

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With and Without Lower Atmosphere:

24 February 2015

The temperature structure from a stand-alone thermosphere ionosphere plasmasphere model (e.g., CTIPe) is similar to the MSIS empirical model. The Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) drives variability from the chaotic lower atmosphere which introduces a whole spectrum of variability.

Typical iono-thermosphere model: • Driven by Solar EUV and

Geomagnetic Storms.• Global maps show little fine

structure

Ionosphere-thermosphere model coupled to the lower atmosphere: Global maps show structure relevant to• GPS accuracy and availability • HF Comm.

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Thermosphere

Mesosphere

GFS0 – 60 km

WAMNeutral Atmosphere

0 – 600 km

Ionosphere Model

IDEA (Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere)

Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS)Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE)Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE)

Whole Atmosphere

ModelStratosphere

Troposphere

Specification and Multi-day forecasts for• GPS/GNSS Navigation• HF radio communication• Satellite communication

24 February 2015

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IDEA ionospheric forecast

24 February 2015

ObservedDaytime ExB

vertical drift at Jicamarca.A precursor to

ionospheric scintillation which

blocks GPS

Observed 14 Day Forecast with IDEATotal Electron

Content.Directly related to

GPS Error

Forecast with IDEA

2009 Sudden Strat. Warm Event: WAM vs GFS Forecast

January 13 Forecast

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January 15 Forecast

The full impact of WAM on tropospheric forecasts needs to be evaluated

24 February 2015

Raising the top of the GFS model improves forecast lead time• WAM forecasts the Strat-Warm 2 days before GFS

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IDEA Task List

• Complete the coupling of WAM to IPE• Improve WAM (and GFS)

– Improve stratospheric ozone and water vapor chemistry– Improve gravity wave parameterization to include non-orographic

gravity waves– Test higher resolution– Implement “Deep Atmosphere” gridding– Non-hydrostatic core– Expand data and data assimilation up to 100 km– Develop data and data assimilation for 100-200 km

24 February 2015

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WAM – IPE Data List• Stratosphere and Mesosphere

– Extend analysis of SSMIS to ~80-100 km altitude for temperature.– Extend use of AIRS, IASI, CRIS, AMSUA for temperature.– MLS for ozone and temperature to 85 km

• Thermosphere and Ionosphere– Ionospheric radio occultation e.g., COSMIC-II

• Line of site Total Electron Content, Scintillation Indices (

– Accelerometer data for neutral density e.g., GOCE, GRACE, SWARM– Ground-based dual frequency GPS receivers– Global network of Ionosondes/Dynasondes– Incoherent Scatter Radars (MH, Arecibo, Jicamarca, AMISR, etc.)

• Solar flux, GOES-EUV, NASA SDO• Solar Wind: ACE/DSCOVR• Missing Data: High spatial and temporal resolution global coverage of…

– Neutral Temperature– Neutral Densities– Electron Densities

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Capturing Global Phenomena

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Ionospheric Total Electron Content Observation

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC:Accumulation of a months worth of data taken between 20:00 and 22:00 local time

TIMED GUVI (similar to DMSP SSUSI):6 orbits of data

Capturing the spatial and temporal variations in the ionosphere is very difficult from LEO orbit.

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Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD)NASA Instrument of Opportunity

Imaging Spectrograph:Two independent, identical channelsWavelength range: 132 – 160 nm

Target Launch: October 2017Hosted Payload on geostationary

commercial satellite

Observations:•Hemispheric maps of…

• Neutral temperature• O/N2 ratio (composition)

• Electron density •Limb scans of temperatureFlorida Space Institute (FSI) University of Central Florida

PI: Richard Eastes Project Coordinator: Andrey Krywonos

Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP)University of Colorado

Deputy PI: William McClintockProject Manager: Mark Lankton

NOAA SWPCCollaborator: Mihail Codrescu

Instrument Summary

Mass 34 kg

Power 61 W

Size 42×42×70 cm

24 February 2015

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Data Assimilation Challenge• The Ionosphere-Thermosphere system is a strongly driven system

– Order of magnitude electron density changes… • Driven by order of magnitude changes in solar EUV and Geomagnetic activity. • Occur on timescales of minutes.

24 February 2015

• Data assimilation is challenging• Adjusting ionospheric conditions to

match observations does not work. The ionosphere returns to its original state in the next few time steps.

• Not sure which DA scheme is besta. Extended GSI/hybrid (3D EnVar)b. Extended 4D hybrid (4D EnVar)c. Separate Iono-Thermo ensemble

Kalman Filter

Assimilate Data

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Summary• The Space Weather Prediction Testbed provides new models and

products to the Forecast Center and to Customers

• Nearly every space weather model/product depends on real-time satellite

data

• IDEA: The coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere

Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model represents a significant advance in

space weather modeling

– Need to expand existing data and data assimilation in the 60-100 km region

– Need new data and data assimilation techniques in the 200 – 600 km region.

• The GOLD mission will provide new data critical for space weather

modeling

– Global (hemispheric) continuous real-time data

– Both ionosphere and neutral atmosphere data

24 February 2015